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Lots of games with two ranked teams in them last week and lots of moving this week. 5-12 is almost a toss up with how things have gone this year.
Sartell with a couple big section games, Cathedral with a couple big Class A games, Breck/Minneapolis fighting for the bottom of the top 4 section seedings and a couple other story-lines this week.

Enjoy!

1. [1] Hermantown (13-6-2) (8-0)
The Hawks dropped a home game to Cloquet this week, but beating Mahtomedi 4-1 keeps them undefeated against Class A teams this season. 4 games left, their biggest challenge is Bemidji next week.
This week: Tues vs Superior, Fri vs Eveleth-Gilbert

2. [2] Mahtomedi (14-5-1) (9-2)
The Zephyrs lose to Hermtantown, picking up their second Class A loss, their first being to a Minneapolis team who also beat Orono. Two big games this week; can they pick up more than one win this week?
This week: Tues vs St Thomas Academy, Thurs vs Owatonna, Sat @ Cathedral

3. [3] Orono (11-5-1) (10-2)
The Spartans picked up wins against Delano and Mound Westonka in what should be sealing up the top seed in sections. Big week coming up; they tied HF the first time around and lost to Hutchinson the first meeting, plus Cathedral is a good team.
This week: Tues @ Holy Family, Thurs @ Cathedral, Friday vs Hutchinson

4. [4] Mound Westonka (16-5-1) (13-3-1)
The White Hawks pick up another loss to Orono. Only 2 games this week with 3 left on the season.
This week: Mon @ New Prague, Fri vs Litchfield

5. [8] Virginia (13-8-1) (10-5-1)
The Blue Devils lost to Hermantown by only 1 this week. They benefit from Delano's losing streak in this A beat B beat C scenario here, along with beating Greenway most recently.
This week: Fri @ St Paul Academy, Sat @ St Paul Johnson

6. [9] Greenway (14-6) (11-4)
The Raiders were off last week due to weather and benefit from others losses. There's not much left to prove, they just need to win 4 of their last 5.
This week: Thurs vs International Falls, Fri @ St Paul Johnson, Sat @ St Paul Academy

7. [5] Delano (10-11) (9-7)
The Tigers stumble here after losing to New Prague and being 1-4 in their last 5 games, also with a loss to Litchfield to start off that 5.
This week: Thurs vs Waconia, Sat vs Blake

8. [10] Cathedral (16-5) (14-5)
The Crusaders are 5-0 in their last 5 games and have 1 goal losses to Hermantown, Virginia and Delano in the 4 games preceding those. Two big home games this week that I doubt anyone would count them out of.
This week: Thurs vs Orono, Sat vs Mahtomedi

9. [11] Sartell-St Stephen (16-6) (15-1)
The Sabres have 5 losses to 8AA teams and 1 loss to Cathedral. Two road games this week to seal up the 2 seed in 6A.
This week: Thurs @ Alexandria, Sat @ Fergus Falls

10. [12] Alexandria (13-8-1) (12-5-1)
The Cardinals picked up two road wins last week after being the second Class A team to beat Bemidji this season. They have a tough week ahead of them.
This week: Mon @ Brainerd, Thurs vs Sartell-St Stephen, Sat @ East Grand Forks

11. [-] Warroad (12-9-1) (10-5)
The Warriors had a rough start to the season, but 12-3-1 since their 0-6 start to the season. They just beat East Grand Forks 8-1 and have a good case to make for being the top seed in 8A.
This week: Thurs @ Bemidji

12. [7] East Grand Forks (11-10-1) (8-5-1)
The Green Wave have played 22 games and it has been since the fourth game that they beat Cathedral 5-1. They have OT wins over Alexandria and Bemidji as well, but losing to Crookston, losing to Warroad 8-1, and winning 2 in their last 7 drops them quite a bit.
This week: Fri @ Roseau, Sat vs Alexandria

13. [13] Breck (6-14) (4-4)
The Mustangs lost 5-2 to WI's best team and 5-3 to Cathedral, so not a really bad week. Two games this week; with a win on Friday they would have a case to be the 3 seed in the section with their early win over Delano.
This week: Tues vs Princeton, Fri @ Minneapolis

14. [15] South St Paul (14-7) (8-2)
The Packers pick up a win over Minneapolis.
This week: Tues vs North St Paul, Thurs vs Henry Sibley

15. [6] Minneapolis (12-11) (8-5)
The Novas have wins over Mathomedi and Orono, so I wouldn't count them out of any post-season game, but they are 1-3 in their last 4 against teams they'd need to beat to stay ranked high. Can they pick up two wins this week heading into sections?
This week: Wed @ Minnehaha Academy, Fri vs Breck

16. [14] Thief River Falls (11-8-2) (10-5)
The Prowlers win another to be 9-1-1 in the last 11 games, with the loss to EGF. Can they keep it going in Roseau?
This week: Mon @ Roseau, Thurs vs Red Lake Falls

HShockeywatcher wrote:13. [13] Breck (6-14) (4-4)
The Mustangs lost 5-2 to WI's best team and 5-3 to Cathedral, so not a really bad week. Two games this week; with a win on Friday they would have a case to be the 3 seed in the section with their early win over Delano.
This week: Tues vs Princeton, Fri @ Minneapolis

Breck jumping up to grab the three seed in 2A seems like a bit of stretch. Minneapolis has been stumbling lately, but there is no shame in losing to SSP and decent AA teams like St. Cloud and Chaska. Minneapolis has a solid overall body of work, with wins over Orono and Mahtomedi (both of which are better than Breck’s Delano win), along with Blake and St. Cloud earlier in the season.

Meanwhile, Breck only has the Delano win within the section, to go with a close loss to Orono and the 7-1 Providence Academy debacle. The latter loss is going to be tough to overlook in the seeding process. Outside of 2A, the Mustangs’ only win of note is over a mediocre Buffalo team. They lost to Mahtomedi and Blake twice each, along with a 5-0 setback to Chaska (same margin as Minneapolis). I just don’t see any scenario where Breck ends up higher than the five seed, and they will probably end up sixth with a loss to Minneapolis.

Bubble teams to watch, in no particular order:
Simley (15-6-1)
Luverne (16-5-0)
Providence Academy (12-7-2)
Litchfield (13-9-0)
Little Falls (10-9-3)

Stang5280 wrote:

HShockeywatcher wrote:13. [13] Breck (6-14) (4-4)
The Mustangs lost 5-2 to WI's best team and 5-3 to Cathedral, so not a really bad week. Two games this week; with a win on Friday they would have a case to be the 3 seed in the section with their early win over Delano.
This week: Tues vs Princeton, Fri @ Minneapolis

Breck jumping up to grab the three seed in 2A seems like a bit of stretch. Minneapolis has been stumbling lately, but there is no shame in losing to SSP and decent AA teams like St. Cloud and Chaska. Minneapolis has a solid overall body of work, with wins over Orono and Mahtomedi (both of which are better than Breck’s Delano win), along with Blake and St. Cloud earlier in the season.

Meanwhile, Breck only has the Delano win within the section, to go with a close loss to Orono and the 7-1 Providence Academy debacle. The latter loss is going to be tough to overlook in the seeding process. Outside of 2A, the Mustangs’ only win of note is over a mediocre Buffalo team. They lost to Mahtomedi and Blake twice each, along with a 5-0 setback to Chaska (same margin as Minneapolis). I just don’t see any scenario where Breck ends up higher than the five seed, and they will probably end up sixth with a loss to Minneapolis.

I have long been of the opinion of section matchups matter way more for section seeding than all else. Which also means that teams are equally punished for not playing each other.

Delano has lost twice to each of Orono/Mound Westonka and Breck once.
If we bring in non section games, they also lost to both Buffalo and New Prague, who are 2 of Breck’s 6 wins.
Sure, PA is having a good season, but Breck and Waconia (in OT) are their only section wins.

Also, no doubt about who Minneapolis has beaten. I love seeing them do well. If it were all about who you’ve beaten, they’d be #2 right now. But they’ve lost to Crookston, TRF, Holy Angels twice, and now SSP and Chaska. Nothing against them, they are just hard to rank much higher.

HShockeywatcher wrote:Lots of games with two ranked teams in them last week and lots of moving this week. 5-12 is almost a toss up with how things have gone this year.
Sartell with a couple big section games, Cathedral with a couple big Class A games, Breck/Minneapolis fighting for the bottom of the top 4 section seedings and a couple other story-lines this week.

Enjoy!

1. [1] Hermantown (13-6-2) (8-0)
The Hawks dropped a home game to Cloquet this week, but beating Mahtomedi 4-1 keeps them undefeated against Class A teams this season. 4 games left, their biggest challenge is Bemidji next week.
This week: Tues vs Superior, Fri vs Eveleth-Gilbert

2. [2] Mahtomedi (14-5-1) (9-2)
The Zephyrs lose to Hermtantown, picking up their second Class A loss, their first being to a Minneapolis team who also beat Orono. Two big games this week; can they pick up more than one win this week?
This week: Tues vs St Thomas Academy, Thurs vs Owatonna, Sat @ Cathedral

3. [3] Orono (11-5-1) (10-2)
The Spartans picked up wins against Delano and Mound Westonka in what should be sealing up the top seed in sections. Big week coming up; they tied HF the first time around and lost to Hutchinson the first meeting, plus Cathedral is a good team.
This week: Tues @ Holy Family, Thurs @ Cathedral, Friday vs Hutchinson

4. [4] Mound Westonka (16-5-1) (13-3-1)
The White Hawks pick up another loss to Orono. Only 2 games this week with 3 left on the season.
This week: Mon @ New Prague, Fri vs Litchfield

5. [8] Virginia (13-8-1) (10-5-1)
The Blue Devils lost to Hermantown by only 1 this week. They benefit from Delano's losing streak in this A beat B beat C scenario here, along with beating Greenway most recently.
This week: Fri @ St Paul Academy, Sat @ St Paul Johnson

6. [9] Greenway (14-6) (11-4)
The Raiders were off last week due to weather and benefit from others losses. There's not much left to prove, they just need to win 4 of their last 5.
This week: Thurs vs International Falls, Fri @ St Paul Johnson, Sat @ St Paul Academy

7. [5] Delano (10-11) (9-7)
The Tigers stumble here after losing to New Prague and being 1-4 in their last 5 games, also with a loss to Litchfield to start off that 5.
This week: Thurs vs Waconia, Sat vs Blake

8. [10] Cathedral (16-5) (14-5)
The Crusaders are 5-0 in their last 5 games and have 1 goal losses to Hermantown, Virginia and Delano in the 4 games preceding those. Two big home games this week that I doubt anyone would count them out of.
This week: Thurs vs Orono, Sat vs Mahtomedi

9. [11] Sartell-St Stephen (16-6) (15-1)
The Sabres have 5 losses to 8AA teams and 1 loss to Cathedral. Two road games this week to seal up the 2 seed in 6A.
This week: Thurs @ Alexandria, Sat @ Fergus Falls

10. [12] Alexandria (13-8-1) (12-5-1)
The Cardinals picked up two road wins last week after being the second Class A team to beat Bemidji this season. They have a tough week ahead of them.
This week: Mon @ Brainerd, Thurs vs Sartell-St Stephen, Sat @ East Grand Forks

11. [-] Warroad (12-9-1) (10-5)
The Warriors had a rough start to the season, but 12-3-1 since their 0-6 start to the season. They just beat East Grand Forks 8-1 and have a good case to make for being the top seed in 8A.
This week: Thurs @ Bemidji

12. [7] East Grand Forks (11-10-1) (8-5-1)
The Green Wave have played 22 games and it has been since the fourth game that they beat Cathedral 5-1. They have OT wins over Alexandria and Bemidji as well, but losing to Crookston, losing to Warroad 8-1, and winning 2 in their last 7 drops them quite a bit.
This week: Fri @ Roseau, Sat vs Alexandria

13. [13] Breck (6-14) (4-4)
The Mustangs lost 5-2 to WI's best team and 5-3 to Cathedral, so not a really bad week. Two games this week; with a win on Friday they would have a case to be the 3 seed in the section with their early win over Delano.
This week: Tues vs Princeton, Fri @ Minneapolis

14. [15] South St Paul (14-7) (8-2)
The Packers pick up a win over Minneapolis.
This week: Tues vs North St Paul, Thurs vs Henry Sibley

15. [6] Minneapolis (12-11) (8-5)
The Novas have wins over Mathomedi and Orono, so I wouldn't count them out of any post-season game, but they are 1-3 in their last 4 against teams they'd need to beat to stay ranked high. Can they pick up two wins this week heading into sections?
This week: Wed @ Minnehaha Academy, Fri vs Breck

16. [14] Thief River Falls (11-8-2) (10-5)
The Prowlers win another to be 9-1-1 in the last 11 games, with the loss to EGF. Can they keep it going in Roseau?
This week: Mon @ Roseau, Thurs vs Red Lake Falls

Hermantown #1, after that it is a complete toss up. Having three 2A teams in your top ten is just lazy. Parity reigns in the MSHSL unless you are Hermantown or Edina.

QRF as of 2/5/18

1 Hermantown (13-6-2) 89.8
2 Mahtomedi (14-5-1) 89.0
3 Orono (13-5-1) 86.9
4 St. Cloud Cathedral (16-5) 84.8
5 Mound Westonka/Watertown-Mayer (16-5-1) 83.8
6 Greenway/Nash-Kee (14-6) 83.2
7 South St. Paul (14-7) 82.0
8 Sartell-St. Stephen (16-6) 81.7
9 Monticello (14-5-2) 80.4
10 Simley (15-6-1) 79.7
11 North Branch (17-5) 75.3
12 Minneapolis (12-10) 73.6
13 Virginia/Mt. Iron-Buhl (13-8-1) 72.2
14 Northfield (15-5) 71.7
15 Albert Lea (12-5-2) 68.3
16 Luverne (16-5) 67.6
17 East Grand Forks (11-10-1) 67.5
18 Marshall (17-5-1) 67.2
19 Pine City Area (17-5) 66.1
20 Alexandria (13-8-1)

Page stat top 20
1-3
17 HERMANTOWN 7A 13 6 2 0.667 89 56 19.63
28 MAHTOMEDI 4A 14 5 1 0.725 84 33 18.79
30 ST CLOUD CATHEDRAL 6A 16 5 0 0.762 119 45 18.67
4-6
34 GREENWAY 7A 14 6 0 0.700 96 52 18.42
37 ORONO 2A 13 5 1 0.711 76 42 18.13
43 WARROAD 8A 12 9 1 0.568 82 48 17.74
7-9
45 S ST PAUL 4A 14 7 0 0.667 83 53 17.57
46 VIRGINIA 7A 13 8 1 0.614 90 61 17.49
47 SARTELL 6A 16 6 0 0.727 88 56 17.46
10-12
48 MOUND WESTONKA 2A 16 5 1 0.750 81 45 17.34
49 DELANO 2A 10 11 0 0.476 56 46 17.17
51 EAST GRAND FORKS 8A 11 10 1 0.523 62 59 17.16
13-15
55 THIEF RIVER FALLS 8A 11 8 2 0.571 58 38 16.85
56 MINNEAPOLIS 2A 12 10 0 0.545 71 65 16.83
58 ALEXANDRIA 6A 13 8 1 0.614 82 54 16.60
16-17
60 SIMLEY 4A 15 6 1 0.705 87 57 16.55
62 BRECK_ 2A 6 14 0 0.300 45 79 16.48
18-20
70 LUVERNE 3A 16 5 0 0.762 118 36 16.06
74 PROVIDENCE ACADEMY 2A
75 TOTINO GRACE 4A

HShockeywatcher wrote:

Stang5280 wrote:

HShockeywatcher wrote:13. [13] Breck (6-14) (4-4)
The Mustangs lost 5-2 to WI's best team and 5-3 to Cathedral, so not a really bad week. Two games this week; with a win on Friday they would have a case to be the 3 seed in the section with their early win over Delano.
This week: Tues vs Princeton, Fri @ Minneapolis

Breck jumping up to grab the three seed in 2A seems like a bit of stretch. Minneapolis has been stumbling lately, but there is no shame in losing to SSP and decent AA teams like St. Cloud and Chaska. Minneapolis has a solid overall body of work, with wins over Orono and Mahtomedi (both of which are better than Breck’s Delano win), along with Blake and St. Cloud earlier in the season.

Meanwhile, Breck only has the Delano win within the section, to go with a close loss to Orono and the 7-1 Providence Academy debacle. The latter loss is going to be tough to overlook in the seeding process. Outside of 2A, the Mustangs’ only win of note is over a mediocre Buffalo team. They lost to Mahtomedi and Blake twice each, along with a 5-0 setback to Chaska (same margin as Minneapolis). I just don’t see any scenario where Breck ends up higher than the five seed, and they will probably end up sixth with a loss to Minneapolis.

I have long been of the opinion of section matchups matter way more for section seeding than all else. Which also means that teams are equally punished for not playing each other.

Delano has lost twice to each of Orono/Mound Westonka and Breck once.
If we bring in non section games, they also lost to both Buffalo and New Prague, who are 2 of Breck’s 6 wins.
Sure, PA is having a good season, but Breck and Waconia (in OT) are their only section wins.

Your logic escapes me here. If you are going to punish teams for not playing a reasonably full section schedule, then Breck is a prime example. Assuming the Mustangs can pull off a win over Minneapolis this week, their final section record will only be 2-2, with losses to Orono and Providence Academy. Breck did not play #2 seed Mound Westonka, which may well have been a loss. I am not sure how that equates to the #3 seed, particularly if you hold them to your standard stated above.

Providence Academy will almost certainly finish with a 3-3 section record, with the three losses coming against Minneapolis, Orono, and Mound Westonka. I’m not sure how you can simply wave away the 7-1 dismantling of Breck as if it never happened. PA should be seeded ahead of Breck, period.

I certainly could be proven wrong, but I still think that Delano will end up being seeded ahead of Breck based on overall body of work. We can play the comparative schedule game all day, as you left out the fact that Delano previously defeated New Prague and also beat Cathedral, who comfortably handled Breck. These comparisons are rather futile and twist us in pretzels. While Breck was busy piling up losses against a tough schedule, Delano will likely finish with a winning record and picked up a few impressive Class A victories along the way. In my opinion that will carry the day with coaches.

Stang5280 wrote:

HShockeywatcher wrote:

Stang5280 wrote: Breck jumping up to grab the three seed in 2A seems like a bit of stretch. Minneapolis has been stumbling lately, but there is no shame in losing to SSP and decent AA teams like St. Cloud and Chaska. Minneapolis has a solid overall body of work, with wins over Orono and Mahtomedi (both of which are better than Breck’s Delano win), along with Blake and St. Cloud earlier in the season.

Meanwhile, Breck only has the Delano win within the section, to go with a close loss to Orono and the 7-1 Providence Academy debacle. The latter loss is going to be tough to overlook in the seeding process. Outside of 2A, the Mustangs’ only win of note is over a mediocre Buffalo team. They lost to Mahtomedi and Blake twice each, along with a 5-0 setback to Chaska (same margin as Minneapolis). I just don’t see any scenario where Breck ends up higher than the five seed, and they will probably end up sixth with a loss to Minneapolis.

I have long been of the opinion of section matchups matter way more for section seeding than all else. Which also means that teams are equally punished for not playing each other.

Delano has lost twice to each of Orono/Mound Westonka and Breck once.
If we bring in non section games, they also lost to both Buffalo and New Prague, who are 2 of Breck’s 6 wins.
Sure, PA is having a good season, but Breck and Waconia (in OT) are their only section wins.

Your logic escapes me here. If you are going to punish teams for not playing a reasonably full section schedule, then Breck is a prime example. Assuming the Mustangs can pull off a win over Minneapolis this week, their final section record will only be 2-2, with losses to Orono and Providence Academy. Breck did not play #2 seed Mound Westonka, which may well have been a loss. I am not sure how that equates to the #3 seed, particularly if you hold them to your standard stated above.

Providence Academy will almost certainly finish with a 3-3 section record, with the three losses coming against Minneapolis, Orono, and Mound Westonka. I’m not sure how you can simply wave away the 7-1 dismantling of Breck as if it never happened. PA should be seeded ahead of Breck, period.

I certainly could be proven wrong, but I still think that Delano will end up being seeded ahead of Breck based on overall body of work. We can play the comparative schedule game all day, as you left out the fact that Delano previously defeated New Prague and also beat Cathedral, who comfortably handled Breck. These comparisons are rather futile and twist us in pretzels. While Breck was busy piling up losses against a tough schedule, Delano will likely finish with a winning record and picked up a few impressive Class A victories along the way. In my opinion that will carry the day with coaches.

?
What logic is escaping you? I would love teams to play more section games. Period. If teams don't play each other, we have common opponent games, but that's about it. Breck, for example, didn't play Mound Westonka or Orono this season. That's on Breck, but that's equally on Mound Westonka and Orono, which is the point I'm making. It's also worth noting that most of the teams in 2A who play a "section rich" schedule do it because they are conference games.

So, let's break it down:
Orono 8-1 in section play
Notably: beat Delano 3-2 twice, beat MW 2-1 and 4-2, Breck 3-2, lost to Mpls 3-2

Mound Westonka 6-2 in section play
Notably: Only losses to Orono. Beat Delano 2-0 and 4-3, beat Mpls 5-1

Minneapolis 4-2 in section play
Notably: Beat Orono 3-2, lost to Delano 5-2, lost 5-1 to MW

Breck 1-2 in section play
Notably: beat Delano 2-1, lost to Orono 3-2, lost to PA 7-1

Delano 4-5 in section play
Notably: lost to Orono 3-2 twice, lost to MW 4-3 and 2-0, lost to Breck 2-1, beat Minneapolis 5-2

So, it's a shame we don't have Breck/Orono or Breck/MW games, but such is life. Orono is the clear #1 and MW clear #2.
From there, you have a Minneapolis team who beat #1 close, lost to #2 and lost to Delano.
You also have a Breck team who beat Delano close and lost close to Orono, and had an off game against a lower team.

Regardless of how the Breck/Mpls game plays out, you're going to have one team ranked below a team they beat and you have to weigh the factors of how that plays out.
If you add into this equation a Mpls win over Breck, I'd say Delano should be 3, Mpls 4, Breck 5. Breck beating Delano doesn't make up for losing to Mpls and PA.
If you add into this equation a Breck win over Mpls, I'd say Breck should be 3, Delano 4, Mpls 5. The close Mpls win over Orono doesn't make up for all the other losing.


If you are someone who disagrees with me and thinks other games should be factored in, I think that bodes will for Breck as well with opponents like New Prague, who Breck recently beat while Delano lost to them.

Guess we'll have to see who wins in Minneapolis tonight...