AA Preseason Rankings 2016-2017
Posted: Tue Nov 15, 2016 7:54 pm
Another season, another set of preseason rankings. Thanks, as always, for coming along for the ride. The first in-season rankings will come out on December 4, so the “schedule” portion includes all of a team’s games before that date.
1. Eden Prairie
-The Eagles have two Mr. Hockey winners in their history, and two state championships; both happened in the same year. With Casey Mittelstadt ready to claim the former, is the latter just around the bend? With a solid core in back anchored by Nick Leivermann (a front-line star in his own right) and improved goaltending, they’re the team to beat, and I say that with a little more confidence than I did in November last year. The forward depth is good but not great, with Jack Jenson a key to filling the hole left by Michael Graham’s graduation. The X factor: can they channel their edgy play in healthy ways, as Wayzata did last year? The schedule is fairly forgiving before it ramps up with the Edina Holiday Classic.
Schedule: 12/1 at Cretin-Derham Hall, 12/3 vs. Farmington
2. Stillwater
-The stars are aligned for the Ponies, with great returning talent on both ends of the ice. The top unit, with Noah Cates and Luke Manning leading the way, should be right up there with Eden Prairie and Grand Rapids among the best in the state. They may be a little thinner than last year, but it’s not a huge drop-off, and they have a capable netminder taking over as well. With a favorable 4AA, they have the easiest road of anyone to a high seed at State, and it’s hard to ask for much more than that. The schedule is a bit more difficult than last season’s cakewalk, though Lakeville South in the first week is their only game against a ranked opponent before Christmas.
Schedule: 11/29 at East Ridge, 12/1 vs. #11 Lakeville South
3. Wayzata
-The defending champs lose a lot, but with a solid defensive core intact, the Trojans should still be able to play that tough, tight brand of hockey that has become synonymous with the program under Pat O’Leary. The scoring probably won’t be as balanced, but if players like Colin Schmidt and Griffin Ness can step into the void, they should still have a pretty potent offense. Their typical tough start should show us if there will be growing pains, or if they can pick up right where they left off.
Schedule: Wayzata Turkey Trot—11/25 vs. Maple Grove, 11/26 vs. #6 Holy Family/#9 Edina; 12/2 vs. Hermantown, 12/3 vs. #14 Duluth East
4. Elk River
-This Elks group has fantastic forward depth, and if Jax Murray’s Elite League is any indication, his resurgence could give them a Mr. Hockey finalist. The defensive depth isn’t phenomenal, and their past 7AA struggles loom large, but on paper, I think this is the most complete team in the section. Their easier Northwest Suburban games, which in the past two years were all backloaded, have now been moved to the front, making for some easy opening weeks.
Schedule: 11/26 vs. Champlin Park, 11/29 at Armstrong/Cooper, 12/1 vs. Coon Rapids, 12/3 at Spring Lake Park
5. Grand Rapids
-The Thunderhawks’ top line of Gavin Hain, Micah Miller, and Blake McLaughlin will be the best in the state, and they’ve got one elite defenseman and a good situation in goal, too. The questions begin after that: it’s hard to win a tougher AA section without depth and they lost a very good line to graduation, so they’ll need a few of last year’s role players to step up. Another key is the defense beyond John Stampohar: it’s been a weakness in recent years, but it does have experience now, so if the other defenders can at least avoid mistakes, they’ll have a solid shot at a repeat trip to St. Paul.
Schedule: 12/2 at #8 Minnetonka, 12/3 at Benilde-St. Margaret’s
6. Holy Family
-The Fire are deep across the board, and there’s a lot to like about the way they’re built: they’ll have several solid lines, a very strong defense led by Matt Anderson, and like Rapids, they go two deep in goal. What separates them from Eden Prairie—and perhaps Minnetonka, depending on how their young guns come along—is the lack of some dominant offensive talent. If players like Ethan Mesler and Patrick Reddan can provide that, the Fire will be as good as anyone out there. Still, they have yet to make a AA section final. The Turkey Trot is a chance to make an early statement as to where they stand.
Schedule: Wayzata Turkey Trot—11/25 vs. #9 Edina, 11/26 vs. #3 Wayzata/Maple Grove; 12/3 at Hopkins
7. St. Thomas Academy
-The Cadets don’t overwhelm in any one area, but they are pretty good at every position, with two strong returning lines, a few solid defensemen, and an Elite League goalie. If some of the younger forwards can take the next step, they’ll be in the conversation among the state title contenders. No one has an easier road to State, though we said that last year, too; for all the talent, we’re still really waiting for this club to do something of significance in AA. They have two top teams in their first three games.
Schedule: 11/26 at #9 Minnetonka, 12/1 vs. Eastview, 12/3 vs. #10 Lakeville North
8. Minnetonka
-The Skippers are the wild card in the top 10, with great potential but a lot to prove. They return a solid core from a team that (lest we forget) won the Lake Conference last season, and add in some state champion Bantams who will make an immediate impact. But they’ll still face an uphill battle in 2AA, and with a lack of playoff success in recent history, they’re not getting the benefit of the doubt. The openers against St. Thomas Academy and Grand Rapids should tell us how much growing up they have to do.
Schedule: 11/26 vs. #7 St. Thomas Academy, 12/2 vs. #5 Grand Rapids, 12/3 vs. Duluth Marshall
9. Edina
-Offseason losses bumped the Hornets down a ways and drained their scoring depth. There’s an awful lot of young talent on defense, so their hopes likely rest on that core. They won’t be able to steamroll teams the way they did a couple of years ago, but they still have a pair of experienced D-I forwards in Sam Walker and Bram Scheerer, and if that defense jells and they come together as a unit, 6AA is winnable. As usual, the Turkey Trot will give a good bearing on where they stand.
Schedule: Wayzata Turkey Trot—11/25 vs. #6 Holy Family, 11/26 vs. Maple Grove/Wayzata; 11/29 vs. Farmington, 12/3 vs. St. Louis Park
10. Lakeville North
-Henry Enebak and Keaton Pehrson give the Panthers two front-end seniors to lead the way, and while the other big names from their recent dominant run are all gone, they are at least a fairly experienced group. I have them ahead of South for now mostly due to balance, but that could easily change. Their opener against the Cadets will be a good test of their depth, especially if they do decide to play a number of their young guns.
Schedule: 12/3 at #7 St. Thomas Academy
11. Lakeville South
-The Cougars are excellent on defense, with three Elite League defensemen back in the fold. They also return a bunch of forwards, but will need a few of them to step up and shoulder the scoring load if they’re going to get back to State for the first time in five years. The early schedule is not easy, as they face Class A’s top two programs and a top-five AA team.
Schedule: 11/26 vs. Breck, 12/1 at #2 Stillwater, 12/3 at Hermantown
12. Prior Lake
-A year after breaking through into a section final, the Lakers bring back a solid senior class that includes a bunch of solid defensemen, and sophomore forward Jackson Jutting will look to break out offensively. Once again, they’re buried in a deep section, and while it’s possible to see another semifinal upset, making it to State would be a tall feat. They start later than most, and have a fairly tame early schedule.
Schedule: 12/3 at Chanhassen
13. Centennial
-On paper this team isn’t overwhelming, but they don’t need to be to win their section, and this group did have a lot of success in youth hockey. If they can translate that to the high school level this season, they could sneak up on some people and at the very least give 5AA a shot at a first round upset at State. With Maple Grove still on the raw side, this is their window. They open with a road trip to the north.
Schedule: 12/2 at Roseau, 12/3 at Brainerd
14. Duluth East
-The Hounds return just one senior skater from last season, though the top unit is still pretty experienced, and should provide some good chemistry. If a young but skilled defense can come along, they’ll have the deepest blue line in 7AA. Goaltending and scoring depth loom as possible concerns, though neither is insurmountable, and poaching yet another a section title is well within their power. Their first week features the defending state champs, whom they did beat last season.
Schedule: 12/2 vs. White Bear Lake, 12/3 at #3 Wayzata
15. Moorhead
-The Spuds have a couple of quality veteran players, and now add a very strong bantam class that should have them back in the statewide conversation over the next few years. The question is how quickly they can arrive, and an early clash with Bemidji will give us a quick take on the state of the 8AA race.
Schedule: 11/26 at Andover, 12/1 vs. Bemidji, 12/3 vs. Buffalo
The Next Ten
Bemidji
-Graduations sapped the depth that was one of the keys to the Lumberjacks’ back-to-back section titles, but their top unit headlined by Alex Pollock, Brady Tatro, and Chase Hartje should keep them competitive. Their first three games are all against section opponents, so they’ll have to be on their game early for section seeding purposes.
Hill-Murray
-The Pioneers suffered heavy offseason losses, and were thinner than they usually are last season, too. Still, there’s a respectable defensive core returning, a D-I commit in Ben Helgeson, and a hot Jake Begley could pose a threat to Stillwater if he’s on. Still, the Pioneers are clearly the chaser in 4AA right now.
Maple Grove
-The Crimson quietly return a lot of players from a team that snuck into a section final last season, and the youth program keeps pumping in decent talent. Centennial may be the conventional choice in 5AA, and the Crimson don’t really have history on their side, but they’ve got good depth. The Turkey Trot will be trial by fire, as they’ll collide with a couple of top ten opponents.
St. Michael-Albertville
-The Knights return a productive top line, some capable defensemen, and a quality goaltender. They’re not deep, but they may not need to be to win 8AA, and it’s worth buying high on this group with Bemidji down from where it was the past two years, and Moorhead not quite where it will be in the future. This is their chance. An early game with Benilde could help set the tone.
Cloquet
-You could do a lot worse for a dark horse pick than the Lumberjacks, who return a decent number of players and bring in the first wave of several strong Bantam classes that should put them back in the 7AA conversation over the next couple years. They’re probably a year away from being a serious threat, but it’s not hard to see them knocking someone off if the stars align.
Blaine
-The Bengals are in reload mode now that Riley Tufte and Luke Notermann have moved on. The defense is in respectable shape, and some quality incoming young talent should keep them within striking distance in a weaker section. The first week provides a warm-up act.
Burnsville
-Despite heavy graduation losses, the Blaze are still one of the better teams in 3AA, and have a few capable talents who give them at least some chance of skating with St. Thomas Academy. Up first: a visit to Hill, which will be a chance to prove themselves against another team that lost a lot.
Benilde-St. Margaret’s
-Few teams lost as much as last year’s regular season #1, and the early departures on defense and in goal sap what would have been their biggest strengths. There’s still a passable stable of decent forwards on hand, but Benilde teams can be shaky in back even when they have experienced talent, and there will be a lot of growing this season. Early games against other bubble teams will tell us just how daunting their task is.
Duluth Marshall
-A couple intriguing talents here, but they just don’t have the depth to run with the big guns of 7AA. This will likely be an ongoing problem for the Hilltoppers. They have a tough opening weekend, with a road trip to face Benilde and Minnetonka.
Roseau
-Like STMA in 8AA, the Rams have a couple of quality players who could put together productive years. They may not have the depth to get beyond the middle tier of this section, but on a good night they could be a thorn in someone’s side.
And now, the sections:
1AA
10 Lakeville North
11 Lakeville South
-After Farmington’s breakthrough a year ago, this one reverts to the Battle of the Lakevilles this season. They’re both pretty good, and more evenly matched than they have been for a while, so I anticipate a tight race and an entertaining section final in Rochester. With Farmington losing nearly everyone outside the goalie, it’s probably a two-team race. Further south, Rochester Century returns nearly everyone from a very young team a year ago, and should contend for a higher seed.
2AA
1 Eden Prairie
6 Holy Family
8 Minnetonka
12 Prior Lake
-The state’s toughest section will make Eden Prairie earn it if they want that title. With four good teams, seeding is less important than in some other sections, though avoiding Eden Prairie in the semis will probably make life easier for a few teams here. The real questions: how quickly can Minnetonka grow up, and how can Holy Family handle the spotlight?
3AA
7 St. Thomas Academy
22 Burnsville
Bloomington Jefferson
-There’s a gulf between STA and the chase pack here. Like last year, Burnsville and Bloomington Jefferson appear the closest to the Cadets, and Eastview returns a decent core also, though it lacks overwhelming talent.
4AA
2 Stillwater
17 Hill-Murray
-Everyone is chasing a bunch of Ponies here. When was the last time Hill’s odds were this low? Despite the Pioneer drop-off, I think they’re still #2; White Bear is also down, and Mounds View and Woodbury have a few okay parts, but need to show more to be section finalist candidates.
5AA
13 Centennial
18 Maple Grove
21 Blaine
-5AA is now 1-14 at State since 2010. Can someone break that ugly run? Centennial is the default frontrunner, while Maple Grove has some elements that could make them interesting, and if Blaine can reload fast enough, they’ll be there, too. Defending champ Anoka probably won’t be a factor.
6AA
3 Wayzata
9 Edina
23 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
Cretin-Derham Hall
-With Benilde dropping off, this looks like a two-team race between West Metro giants. With two to four regular season meetings before a likely final clash and longstanding rivalries going back a long ways, this should be a lot of fun, and could set up a thriller at Mariucci. Benilde, still probably the third-best team here, looks to spoil that party, as does Cretin; the Raiders lost a lot, but still have a strong goalie and some good upcoming talent, and did it a year ago.
7AA
4 Elk River
5 Grand Rapids
14 Duluth East
20 Cloquet
24 Duluth Marshall
-Intriguing, as always. Rapids has the front-end talent but may lack the depth; Elk River has the depth but needs to prove it in the playoffs; East has the track record but is young, and Cloquet is on the rise but has some distance to climb to join the big three. The opening weeks are tame in terms of section games, but East does play Cloquet and Marshall before Christmas, both of whom have been able to upset East in recent years.
8AA
15 Moorhead
16 Bemidji
19 St. Michael-Albertville
25 Roseau
-This could be an interesting year in 8AA: the top two on paper are clear, but there’s a very deep second tier here, including St. Michael-Albertville, Roseau, the new St. Cloud co-op, Brainerd, and maybe Rogers all hovering in there. With Bemidji down some and Moorhead still young, this could open up some potential upsets We’ll get a very early look at where the Spuds and Lumberjacks stand, as they face off in Moorhead on December 1. The second meeting doesn’t come until the last week of the season.
1. Eden Prairie
-The Eagles have two Mr. Hockey winners in their history, and two state championships; both happened in the same year. With Casey Mittelstadt ready to claim the former, is the latter just around the bend? With a solid core in back anchored by Nick Leivermann (a front-line star in his own right) and improved goaltending, they’re the team to beat, and I say that with a little more confidence than I did in November last year. The forward depth is good but not great, with Jack Jenson a key to filling the hole left by Michael Graham’s graduation. The X factor: can they channel their edgy play in healthy ways, as Wayzata did last year? The schedule is fairly forgiving before it ramps up with the Edina Holiday Classic.
Schedule: 12/1 at Cretin-Derham Hall, 12/3 vs. Farmington
2. Stillwater
-The stars are aligned for the Ponies, with great returning talent on both ends of the ice. The top unit, with Noah Cates and Luke Manning leading the way, should be right up there with Eden Prairie and Grand Rapids among the best in the state. They may be a little thinner than last year, but it’s not a huge drop-off, and they have a capable netminder taking over as well. With a favorable 4AA, they have the easiest road of anyone to a high seed at State, and it’s hard to ask for much more than that. The schedule is a bit more difficult than last season’s cakewalk, though Lakeville South in the first week is their only game against a ranked opponent before Christmas.
Schedule: 11/29 at East Ridge, 12/1 vs. #11 Lakeville South
3. Wayzata
-The defending champs lose a lot, but with a solid defensive core intact, the Trojans should still be able to play that tough, tight brand of hockey that has become synonymous with the program under Pat O’Leary. The scoring probably won’t be as balanced, but if players like Colin Schmidt and Griffin Ness can step into the void, they should still have a pretty potent offense. Their typical tough start should show us if there will be growing pains, or if they can pick up right where they left off.
Schedule: Wayzata Turkey Trot—11/25 vs. Maple Grove, 11/26 vs. #6 Holy Family/#9 Edina; 12/2 vs. Hermantown, 12/3 vs. #14 Duluth East
4. Elk River
-This Elks group has fantastic forward depth, and if Jax Murray’s Elite League is any indication, his resurgence could give them a Mr. Hockey finalist. The defensive depth isn’t phenomenal, and their past 7AA struggles loom large, but on paper, I think this is the most complete team in the section. Their easier Northwest Suburban games, which in the past two years were all backloaded, have now been moved to the front, making for some easy opening weeks.
Schedule: 11/26 vs. Champlin Park, 11/29 at Armstrong/Cooper, 12/1 vs. Coon Rapids, 12/3 at Spring Lake Park
5. Grand Rapids
-The Thunderhawks’ top line of Gavin Hain, Micah Miller, and Blake McLaughlin will be the best in the state, and they’ve got one elite defenseman and a good situation in goal, too. The questions begin after that: it’s hard to win a tougher AA section without depth and they lost a very good line to graduation, so they’ll need a few of last year’s role players to step up. Another key is the defense beyond John Stampohar: it’s been a weakness in recent years, but it does have experience now, so if the other defenders can at least avoid mistakes, they’ll have a solid shot at a repeat trip to St. Paul.
Schedule: 12/2 at #8 Minnetonka, 12/3 at Benilde-St. Margaret’s
6. Holy Family
-The Fire are deep across the board, and there’s a lot to like about the way they’re built: they’ll have several solid lines, a very strong defense led by Matt Anderson, and like Rapids, they go two deep in goal. What separates them from Eden Prairie—and perhaps Minnetonka, depending on how their young guns come along—is the lack of some dominant offensive talent. If players like Ethan Mesler and Patrick Reddan can provide that, the Fire will be as good as anyone out there. Still, they have yet to make a AA section final. The Turkey Trot is a chance to make an early statement as to where they stand.
Schedule: Wayzata Turkey Trot—11/25 vs. #9 Edina, 11/26 vs. #3 Wayzata/Maple Grove; 12/3 at Hopkins
7. St. Thomas Academy
-The Cadets don’t overwhelm in any one area, but they are pretty good at every position, with two strong returning lines, a few solid defensemen, and an Elite League goalie. If some of the younger forwards can take the next step, they’ll be in the conversation among the state title contenders. No one has an easier road to State, though we said that last year, too; for all the talent, we’re still really waiting for this club to do something of significance in AA. They have two top teams in their first three games.
Schedule: 11/26 at #9 Minnetonka, 12/1 vs. Eastview, 12/3 vs. #10 Lakeville North
8. Minnetonka
-The Skippers are the wild card in the top 10, with great potential but a lot to prove. They return a solid core from a team that (lest we forget) won the Lake Conference last season, and add in some state champion Bantams who will make an immediate impact. But they’ll still face an uphill battle in 2AA, and with a lack of playoff success in recent history, they’re not getting the benefit of the doubt. The openers against St. Thomas Academy and Grand Rapids should tell us how much growing up they have to do.
Schedule: 11/26 vs. #7 St. Thomas Academy, 12/2 vs. #5 Grand Rapids, 12/3 vs. Duluth Marshall
9. Edina
-Offseason losses bumped the Hornets down a ways and drained their scoring depth. There’s an awful lot of young talent on defense, so their hopes likely rest on that core. They won’t be able to steamroll teams the way they did a couple of years ago, but they still have a pair of experienced D-I forwards in Sam Walker and Bram Scheerer, and if that defense jells and they come together as a unit, 6AA is winnable. As usual, the Turkey Trot will give a good bearing on where they stand.
Schedule: Wayzata Turkey Trot—11/25 vs. #6 Holy Family, 11/26 vs. Maple Grove/Wayzata; 11/29 vs. Farmington, 12/3 vs. St. Louis Park
10. Lakeville North
-Henry Enebak and Keaton Pehrson give the Panthers two front-end seniors to lead the way, and while the other big names from their recent dominant run are all gone, they are at least a fairly experienced group. I have them ahead of South for now mostly due to balance, but that could easily change. Their opener against the Cadets will be a good test of their depth, especially if they do decide to play a number of their young guns.
Schedule: 12/3 at #7 St. Thomas Academy
11. Lakeville South
-The Cougars are excellent on defense, with three Elite League defensemen back in the fold. They also return a bunch of forwards, but will need a few of them to step up and shoulder the scoring load if they’re going to get back to State for the first time in five years. The early schedule is not easy, as they face Class A’s top two programs and a top-five AA team.
Schedule: 11/26 vs. Breck, 12/1 at #2 Stillwater, 12/3 at Hermantown
12. Prior Lake
-A year after breaking through into a section final, the Lakers bring back a solid senior class that includes a bunch of solid defensemen, and sophomore forward Jackson Jutting will look to break out offensively. Once again, they’re buried in a deep section, and while it’s possible to see another semifinal upset, making it to State would be a tall feat. They start later than most, and have a fairly tame early schedule.
Schedule: 12/3 at Chanhassen
13. Centennial
-On paper this team isn’t overwhelming, but they don’t need to be to win their section, and this group did have a lot of success in youth hockey. If they can translate that to the high school level this season, they could sneak up on some people and at the very least give 5AA a shot at a first round upset at State. With Maple Grove still on the raw side, this is their window. They open with a road trip to the north.
Schedule: 12/2 at Roseau, 12/3 at Brainerd
14. Duluth East
-The Hounds return just one senior skater from last season, though the top unit is still pretty experienced, and should provide some good chemistry. If a young but skilled defense can come along, they’ll have the deepest blue line in 7AA. Goaltending and scoring depth loom as possible concerns, though neither is insurmountable, and poaching yet another a section title is well within their power. Their first week features the defending state champs, whom they did beat last season.
Schedule: 12/2 vs. White Bear Lake, 12/3 at #3 Wayzata
15. Moorhead
-The Spuds have a couple of quality veteran players, and now add a very strong bantam class that should have them back in the statewide conversation over the next few years. The question is how quickly they can arrive, and an early clash with Bemidji will give us a quick take on the state of the 8AA race.
Schedule: 11/26 at Andover, 12/1 vs. Bemidji, 12/3 vs. Buffalo
The Next Ten
Bemidji
-Graduations sapped the depth that was one of the keys to the Lumberjacks’ back-to-back section titles, but their top unit headlined by Alex Pollock, Brady Tatro, and Chase Hartje should keep them competitive. Their first three games are all against section opponents, so they’ll have to be on their game early for section seeding purposes.
Hill-Murray
-The Pioneers suffered heavy offseason losses, and were thinner than they usually are last season, too. Still, there’s a respectable defensive core returning, a D-I commit in Ben Helgeson, and a hot Jake Begley could pose a threat to Stillwater if he’s on. Still, the Pioneers are clearly the chaser in 4AA right now.
Maple Grove
-The Crimson quietly return a lot of players from a team that snuck into a section final last season, and the youth program keeps pumping in decent talent. Centennial may be the conventional choice in 5AA, and the Crimson don’t really have history on their side, but they’ve got good depth. The Turkey Trot will be trial by fire, as they’ll collide with a couple of top ten opponents.
St. Michael-Albertville
-The Knights return a productive top line, some capable defensemen, and a quality goaltender. They’re not deep, but they may not need to be to win 8AA, and it’s worth buying high on this group with Bemidji down from where it was the past two years, and Moorhead not quite where it will be in the future. This is their chance. An early game with Benilde could help set the tone.
Cloquet
-You could do a lot worse for a dark horse pick than the Lumberjacks, who return a decent number of players and bring in the first wave of several strong Bantam classes that should put them back in the 7AA conversation over the next couple years. They’re probably a year away from being a serious threat, but it’s not hard to see them knocking someone off if the stars align.
Blaine
-The Bengals are in reload mode now that Riley Tufte and Luke Notermann have moved on. The defense is in respectable shape, and some quality incoming young talent should keep them within striking distance in a weaker section. The first week provides a warm-up act.
Burnsville
-Despite heavy graduation losses, the Blaze are still one of the better teams in 3AA, and have a few capable talents who give them at least some chance of skating with St. Thomas Academy. Up first: a visit to Hill, which will be a chance to prove themselves against another team that lost a lot.
Benilde-St. Margaret’s
-Few teams lost as much as last year’s regular season #1, and the early departures on defense and in goal sap what would have been their biggest strengths. There’s still a passable stable of decent forwards on hand, but Benilde teams can be shaky in back even when they have experienced talent, and there will be a lot of growing this season. Early games against other bubble teams will tell us just how daunting their task is.
Duluth Marshall
-A couple intriguing talents here, but they just don’t have the depth to run with the big guns of 7AA. This will likely be an ongoing problem for the Hilltoppers. They have a tough opening weekend, with a road trip to face Benilde and Minnetonka.
Roseau
-Like STMA in 8AA, the Rams have a couple of quality players who could put together productive years. They may not have the depth to get beyond the middle tier of this section, but on a good night they could be a thorn in someone’s side.
And now, the sections:
1AA
10 Lakeville North
11 Lakeville South
-After Farmington’s breakthrough a year ago, this one reverts to the Battle of the Lakevilles this season. They’re both pretty good, and more evenly matched than they have been for a while, so I anticipate a tight race and an entertaining section final in Rochester. With Farmington losing nearly everyone outside the goalie, it’s probably a two-team race. Further south, Rochester Century returns nearly everyone from a very young team a year ago, and should contend for a higher seed.
2AA
1 Eden Prairie
6 Holy Family
8 Minnetonka
12 Prior Lake
-The state’s toughest section will make Eden Prairie earn it if they want that title. With four good teams, seeding is less important than in some other sections, though avoiding Eden Prairie in the semis will probably make life easier for a few teams here. The real questions: how quickly can Minnetonka grow up, and how can Holy Family handle the spotlight?
3AA
7 St. Thomas Academy
22 Burnsville
Bloomington Jefferson
-There’s a gulf between STA and the chase pack here. Like last year, Burnsville and Bloomington Jefferson appear the closest to the Cadets, and Eastview returns a decent core also, though it lacks overwhelming talent.
4AA
2 Stillwater
17 Hill-Murray
-Everyone is chasing a bunch of Ponies here. When was the last time Hill’s odds were this low? Despite the Pioneer drop-off, I think they’re still #2; White Bear is also down, and Mounds View and Woodbury have a few okay parts, but need to show more to be section finalist candidates.
5AA
13 Centennial
18 Maple Grove
21 Blaine
-5AA is now 1-14 at State since 2010. Can someone break that ugly run? Centennial is the default frontrunner, while Maple Grove has some elements that could make them interesting, and if Blaine can reload fast enough, they’ll be there, too. Defending champ Anoka probably won’t be a factor.
6AA
3 Wayzata
9 Edina
23 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
Cretin-Derham Hall
-With Benilde dropping off, this looks like a two-team race between West Metro giants. With two to four regular season meetings before a likely final clash and longstanding rivalries going back a long ways, this should be a lot of fun, and could set up a thriller at Mariucci. Benilde, still probably the third-best team here, looks to spoil that party, as does Cretin; the Raiders lost a lot, but still have a strong goalie and some good upcoming talent, and did it a year ago.
7AA
4 Elk River
5 Grand Rapids
14 Duluth East
20 Cloquet
24 Duluth Marshall
-Intriguing, as always. Rapids has the front-end talent but may lack the depth; Elk River has the depth but needs to prove it in the playoffs; East has the track record but is young, and Cloquet is on the rise but has some distance to climb to join the big three. The opening weeks are tame in terms of section games, but East does play Cloquet and Marshall before Christmas, both of whom have been able to upset East in recent years.
8AA
15 Moorhead
16 Bemidji
19 St. Michael-Albertville
25 Roseau
-This could be an interesting year in 8AA: the top two on paper are clear, but there’s a very deep second tier here, including St. Michael-Albertville, Roseau, the new St. Cloud co-op, Brainerd, and maybe Rogers all hovering in there. With Bemidji down some and Moorhead still young, this could open up some potential upsets We’ll get a very early look at where the Spuds and Lumberjacks stand, as they face off in Moorhead on December 1. The second meeting doesn’t come until the last week of the season.