Class A Rankings 1-6-13
Posted: Sun Jan 06, 2013 9:06 am
The first rankings of the new year; Happy New Year everyone!
With so few games played, and no results that were unexpected this past week, the only change from last week was a one spot switch. There are many very important games this week, some that could have huge implications for both ranking and section seeding. Good luck to all teams.
I'm looking for thoughts/opinions on things after #7. #12-#15 seem to be in a good order, but all of them are really a best guess based on what I see on their schedule. I'd also like some discussion on what to do next week if Totino beats Breck or if Mankato West beats Lourdes this week. There are some other interesting games, like Cathedral/Hermantown and Wright County games, but those are the big ones.
Happy Discussion!
1. [1] Saint Thomas Academy (10-1-1)
The Cadets start their week shutting out Mahtomedi, but follow that up by allowing 2 goals to Tartan, more goals than they have allowed in all but two games this season. Two big games this week; a home game against last year’s AA state champs BSM and then travel to Duluth on Saturday to continue their rivalry with the Hilltoppers.
This week: Thurs vs Benilde-St Margaret’s, Sat @ #6 Duluth Marshall
2. [2] East Grand Forks (11-0-2)
The Green Wave own a top 2 ranking, and likely seed at state, as long as they keep the 0 in their loss column. They could even get up to #1 if St Thomas stumbles this season. Although, if they add a loss to their record, they could fall out of the top 3 because of who they play. This week they play a 3 win team and follow that up with a team they have beaten this season, although they are also one of four they have gone to OT with. There is one week left on their schedule with only easy games, and that week isn’t for five weeks.
This week: Thurs vs Red Lake Falls, Sat @ Grand Forks Central
3. [3] Breck (7-2-1)
The Mustangs continue to show their dominance this week beating Lourdes 7-2 and notching two more wins. Two away games this week, including against a team some have ranked as the #2 team in Class A, Totino-Grace. Clearly a top team in the state; of their remaining 15 games, 5 are against quality opponents.
This week: Tues @ #4 Totino-Grace, Thurs @ Minnehaha Academy
4. [5] Totino-Grace (7-1-1)
The Eagles’ one game this past week was a dominating win over Duluth Marshall, showing they definitely are a top team in state. Having only played 9 of their 26 games thus far, they have 18 games left, although only 6 of them will likely be anywhere near competitive. In their next 8 games, the only one that fits that bill happens Tuesday at home against Breck. With their having tied EGF earlier this season, a win over Breck could give justification for them to be #2 next week. The 5-1 loss to Holy Family concerns me, but they are clearly a solid team.
This week: Tues vs #3 Breck, Thurs vs Robbinsdale Cooper, Sat vs Spring Lake Park
5. [4] Hermantown (10-1-1)
With probably the top scoring line in the state, the Hawks have no problem scoring goals. At they hit the second half of their schedule, though, allowing goals is likely going to be their biggest issue as they start to play more teams who can get quality shots on goal. They have two goalies who seem to be basically splitting time and neither has a save percentage about 90%. In fact, the one with more minutes has the lower save percentage, under 87.5%. If they can manage to simply score more than the other offense, as they did against Marshall, or stop goals from getting to the goalie, only allowed 4 shots on goal to International Falls, then they should be able to play with anyone. Three games this week against three quality opponents, the two against Class A competition are on the road. Big section match up with Cathedral on Friday, should be a big week for the Hawks.
This week: Tues vs Grand Rapids, Fri @ #15 St Cloud Cathedral, Sat @ #8 Little Falls
6. [6] Duluth Marshall (7-6)
The Hilltoppers have 6 losses this season, but all are to good AA teams, a WI team or to Class A competition ranked above them. Their games with the #2 and #5 teams were both 1 goal losses. What they are lacking, though, is a quality win. Can they get one this week? They host the #7 WI team as well as the top Class A team. If they can play like they did against Hermantown, maybe they can manage a win or two; if they play like they did against Totino, they will likely be under .500 by the end of the week.
This week: Thurs vs Superior (WI), Sat vs #1 Saint Thomas Academy
7. [7] Rochester Lourdes (7-4)
The Eagles had two losses last week were to #2 Breck and a decent WI team. They do have a win over Cathedral on their schedule, but no other top teams and after getting dismantled by two top teams, the Eagles will be on the outside looking in for until they can prove more. This week they play host to two quality Class A opponents and travel to play a game that may have state seeding implications. At the moment, the top seed in section 1A is up for grabs and will likely be determined on Tuesday.
This week: Tues vs Mankato West, Thurs @ New Ulm, Sat vs Delano
8. [8] Little Falls (10-2)
In 8 of the 12 games the Fliers have played, they have allowed 1 or 0 goals led by a senior tender who is top 5 in the state in both save percentage and GAA. They did start the season with some quality wins over 7A teams, but since have put up scores that leave one to question how they will do against some of the better teams in the state. They host Hermantown this week as well as playing Apollo once and Cathedral twice in the only four remaining games this season where they should be challenged at all. They seem to be a well-rounded scoring team with 7 players with 9 or more points and none with more than 25. Likely the favorite to win their section, but will not be a seeded team unless they can win 2 or 3 of the 4 remaining quality games on their schedule.
This week: Tues @ Sauk Rapids-Rice, Sat vs #5 Hermantown
9. [9] Hibbing (8-6)
While there is one question mark on their schedule with a close loss to Chisago Lakes, the Blue Jackets have gone to OT with Marshall and I doubt anyone would be surprised to see them playing in the 7A final. Currently on a 4 game win streak, 2 of their next three opponents are also in their section.
This week: Tues @ Cloquet, Sat vs Virginia
10. [10] Mahtomedi (7-5)
They didn’t score any goals in their loss to St Thomas, but they also only allowed three goals to them as well. Having lost by a goal to Hibbing recently, but lost in OT to Breck earlier this season, the Zephyrs are clearly a good team and will be contending for third in the Classic Suburban with Tartan. It’s not likely they’ll win on Tuesday, but they could add two more wins to their total this week.
This week: Tues @ Hill-Murray, Thurs vs North St Paul, Sat vs South St Paul
11. [11] Denfeld (10-4)
The Hunters have three one goal losses on their schedule as well as wins over Virginia, Hermantown and International Falls. They have an interesting schedule with not playing many top teams and they ones they do don’t show up until later in the season. Their wins and how close their losses have been show they will likely be in the majority of the games they play. Can they keep it close with East this week?
This week: Tues vs Duluth East, Fri @ Proctor
12. [12] Warroad (10-2-1)
With close wins over Thief River Falls and Cathedral as well as a tie with International Falls, the Warriors seem to be right about where they should be in the rankings. They played EGF close and few would be surprised to see them make some noise come section time. All of their remaining opponents are from sections 7 and 8, so they could definitely tally up quite a few wins before section play. How will they do in their rivalry with Roseau this week?
This week: Thurs vs Roseau, Sat @ Crookston
13. [13] International Falls (4-4-4)
All three of the Broncos losses have come against teams ranked above them. Two of their ties, though, are to teams they likely should’ve beaten if the results of the rest of their schedule are any indication. They are 0-2-2 in sectional play thus far and play, although they still play every team in their section aside from Duluth Marshall, who they don’t have on their schedule. At the moment, it looks as though they could end up with literally any seed in their section. With three section opponents this week, they have an opportunity to hopefully pick up a couple section wins.
This week: Tues @ Virginia, Fri @ Greenway, Sat @ North Shore
14. [14] Thief River Falls (6-6)
After starting the season 2-6 with 4 losses to teams ranked above them (and the rest to AA teams), the Prowlers have won the last 4 games in a row. The defending 8A champion has only played one of their four games against Warroad and East Grand Forks thus far which was an OT loss. They play what should be two easy games this week and follow that up with two away games against both Warroad and East Grand Forks next week. The Prowlers started the season as a preseason top 10 team and are in control of their opportunity to make it back to the state tournament.
This week: Tues vs Park Rapids, Thurs vs Crookston
15. [15] St. Cloud Cathedral (8-6)
The Crusaders have had an interesting season; an early stretch of 5 games with wins over Breck and Delano but losses from EGF, Lourdes and Princeton. Recently they have lost to Warroad in OT and Holy Family. They will likely be in every game they play this season, but have shown they can lose close games. If they can win on Friday, they could potentially be the top seed in section 5A, but with their early loss to Princeton, they could fall as far as the 3rd seed.
This week: Fri vs #5 Hermantown
On the outside:
Princeton (12-2)
Princeton is leading the state in scoring with 92 goals, as one of only two teams with more than 80 goals. They have 2 skaters with over 30 points, 4 over 25, and 10 with over 10 points. When you look and see that 51 of those goals have come in 4 games, though, they are averaging 4.5 goals a game in the other 9 games, instead of the 7.1 they are averaging on the season with those games included. Regardless of how you look at it, they can score, and will continue to. This Thursday they travel to Oakdale where their scorers will be tested against a good Tartan goalie. They will likely only be tested four more times this season against Tartan, Little Falls, Delano and Cathedral. If they can beat both Rogers and Cathedral again, could they get the 2nd seed in section 5A?
Thurs @ Tartan, Sat vs Luverne
Mankato West (11-2)
The Scarlets are an interesting story this season. As I reported last week, they have two skaters with over 30 points, none of their 7 skaters with over 10 points are seniors and neither of their goalies are seniors. Regardless of the outcome of Tuesday’s game in Rochester, they will be in the section final game and likely the favorite in the section to start the year next season. What is so tough about them, though, is that Delano and Lourdes are the only notable MN teams on their schedule in either class. Both Hibbing and Virginia have now beaten the team who has given them their one MN loss. They play Mayo again in a month, but between now and then 7 games that should be easy wins for them and another 3 easy wins to follow before sections. It would be hard to argue with anyone say they should be a top 10 team, but also hard to argue that they shouldn’t be ranked. Tuesday’s game will hopefully tell us a lot about them. It appears as though the vast majority of their schedule are conference or sectional games; is there a way they could schedule some more quality opponents for next season when many of their top players will be seniors?
This week: Tues @ #7 Rochester Lourdes, Thurs @ Mankato East
Delano (8-5)
The Tigers have a season with no quality wins, but every loss they have came against a team ranked higher than them. They play a good Wright County schedule, which should prepare them well for sectional play. With their 2-goal loss to Breck and two games against Mound-Westonka to come, it apprears the 2nd seed in section 2A is theirs to lose.
This week: Tues vs Orono, Sat @ #7 Rochester Lourdes
Orono (9-3-1)
The Spartans are difficult to rank with few games against other competitive Class A teams on their schedule. They have few losses and a win over Denfeld. With 6 wins in their last 7 games, they too begin Wright County play and it will likely come down to them and Delano for both 2nd place in the conference as well as the 2nd seed in section 2A.
This week: Tues @ Delano, Fri vs Mound-Westonka
Virginia (3-9-1)
A very solid case could be made for having this team with 9 losses actually ranked as all of their losses are either to AA teams or teams ranked in my top 12, as well as tying my #13 team. Their most recent game was a win over the one MN team who’s beaten Mankato West. Their schedule allows for them to get a handful of wins in the next few weeks before ending the season with 4 of their last 5 games being against quality opponents.
This week: Tues vs International Falls, Sat @ Hibbing
With so few games played, and no results that were unexpected this past week, the only change from last week was a one spot switch. There are many very important games this week, some that could have huge implications for both ranking and section seeding. Good luck to all teams.
I'm looking for thoughts/opinions on things after #7. #12-#15 seem to be in a good order, but all of them are really a best guess based on what I see on their schedule. I'd also like some discussion on what to do next week if Totino beats Breck or if Mankato West beats Lourdes this week. There are some other interesting games, like Cathedral/Hermantown and Wright County games, but those are the big ones.
Happy Discussion!
1. [1] Saint Thomas Academy (10-1-1)
The Cadets start their week shutting out Mahtomedi, but follow that up by allowing 2 goals to Tartan, more goals than they have allowed in all but two games this season. Two big games this week; a home game against last year’s AA state champs BSM and then travel to Duluth on Saturday to continue their rivalry with the Hilltoppers.
This week: Thurs vs Benilde-St Margaret’s, Sat @ #6 Duluth Marshall
2. [2] East Grand Forks (11-0-2)
The Green Wave own a top 2 ranking, and likely seed at state, as long as they keep the 0 in their loss column. They could even get up to #1 if St Thomas stumbles this season. Although, if they add a loss to their record, they could fall out of the top 3 because of who they play. This week they play a 3 win team and follow that up with a team they have beaten this season, although they are also one of four they have gone to OT with. There is one week left on their schedule with only easy games, and that week isn’t for five weeks.
This week: Thurs vs Red Lake Falls, Sat @ Grand Forks Central
3. [3] Breck (7-2-1)
The Mustangs continue to show their dominance this week beating Lourdes 7-2 and notching two more wins. Two away games this week, including against a team some have ranked as the #2 team in Class A, Totino-Grace. Clearly a top team in the state; of their remaining 15 games, 5 are against quality opponents.
This week: Tues @ #4 Totino-Grace, Thurs @ Minnehaha Academy
4. [5] Totino-Grace (7-1-1)
The Eagles’ one game this past week was a dominating win over Duluth Marshall, showing they definitely are a top team in state. Having only played 9 of their 26 games thus far, they have 18 games left, although only 6 of them will likely be anywhere near competitive. In their next 8 games, the only one that fits that bill happens Tuesday at home against Breck. With their having tied EGF earlier this season, a win over Breck could give justification for them to be #2 next week. The 5-1 loss to Holy Family concerns me, but they are clearly a solid team.
This week: Tues vs #3 Breck, Thurs vs Robbinsdale Cooper, Sat vs Spring Lake Park
5. [4] Hermantown (10-1-1)
With probably the top scoring line in the state, the Hawks have no problem scoring goals. At they hit the second half of their schedule, though, allowing goals is likely going to be their biggest issue as they start to play more teams who can get quality shots on goal. They have two goalies who seem to be basically splitting time and neither has a save percentage about 90%. In fact, the one with more minutes has the lower save percentage, under 87.5%. If they can manage to simply score more than the other offense, as they did against Marshall, or stop goals from getting to the goalie, only allowed 4 shots on goal to International Falls, then they should be able to play with anyone. Three games this week against three quality opponents, the two against Class A competition are on the road. Big section match up with Cathedral on Friday, should be a big week for the Hawks.
This week: Tues vs Grand Rapids, Fri @ #15 St Cloud Cathedral, Sat @ #8 Little Falls
6. [6] Duluth Marshall (7-6)
The Hilltoppers have 6 losses this season, but all are to good AA teams, a WI team or to Class A competition ranked above them. Their games with the #2 and #5 teams were both 1 goal losses. What they are lacking, though, is a quality win. Can they get one this week? They host the #7 WI team as well as the top Class A team. If they can play like they did against Hermantown, maybe they can manage a win or two; if they play like they did against Totino, they will likely be under .500 by the end of the week.
This week: Thurs vs Superior (WI), Sat vs #1 Saint Thomas Academy
7. [7] Rochester Lourdes (7-4)
The Eagles had two losses last week were to #2 Breck and a decent WI team. They do have a win over Cathedral on their schedule, but no other top teams and after getting dismantled by two top teams, the Eagles will be on the outside looking in for until they can prove more. This week they play host to two quality Class A opponents and travel to play a game that may have state seeding implications. At the moment, the top seed in section 1A is up for grabs and will likely be determined on Tuesday.
This week: Tues vs Mankato West, Thurs @ New Ulm, Sat vs Delano
8. [8] Little Falls (10-2)
In 8 of the 12 games the Fliers have played, they have allowed 1 or 0 goals led by a senior tender who is top 5 in the state in both save percentage and GAA. They did start the season with some quality wins over 7A teams, but since have put up scores that leave one to question how they will do against some of the better teams in the state. They host Hermantown this week as well as playing Apollo once and Cathedral twice in the only four remaining games this season where they should be challenged at all. They seem to be a well-rounded scoring team with 7 players with 9 or more points and none with more than 25. Likely the favorite to win their section, but will not be a seeded team unless they can win 2 or 3 of the 4 remaining quality games on their schedule.
This week: Tues @ Sauk Rapids-Rice, Sat vs #5 Hermantown
9. [9] Hibbing (8-6)
While there is one question mark on their schedule with a close loss to Chisago Lakes, the Blue Jackets have gone to OT with Marshall and I doubt anyone would be surprised to see them playing in the 7A final. Currently on a 4 game win streak, 2 of their next three opponents are also in their section.
This week: Tues @ Cloquet, Sat vs Virginia
10. [10] Mahtomedi (7-5)
They didn’t score any goals in their loss to St Thomas, but they also only allowed three goals to them as well. Having lost by a goal to Hibbing recently, but lost in OT to Breck earlier this season, the Zephyrs are clearly a good team and will be contending for third in the Classic Suburban with Tartan. It’s not likely they’ll win on Tuesday, but they could add two more wins to their total this week.
This week: Tues @ Hill-Murray, Thurs vs North St Paul, Sat vs South St Paul
11. [11] Denfeld (10-4)
The Hunters have three one goal losses on their schedule as well as wins over Virginia, Hermantown and International Falls. They have an interesting schedule with not playing many top teams and they ones they do don’t show up until later in the season. Their wins and how close their losses have been show they will likely be in the majority of the games they play. Can they keep it close with East this week?
This week: Tues vs Duluth East, Fri @ Proctor
12. [12] Warroad (10-2-1)
With close wins over Thief River Falls and Cathedral as well as a tie with International Falls, the Warriors seem to be right about where they should be in the rankings. They played EGF close and few would be surprised to see them make some noise come section time. All of their remaining opponents are from sections 7 and 8, so they could definitely tally up quite a few wins before section play. How will they do in their rivalry with Roseau this week?
This week: Thurs vs Roseau, Sat @ Crookston
13. [13] International Falls (4-4-4)
All three of the Broncos losses have come against teams ranked above them. Two of their ties, though, are to teams they likely should’ve beaten if the results of the rest of their schedule are any indication. They are 0-2-2 in sectional play thus far and play, although they still play every team in their section aside from Duluth Marshall, who they don’t have on their schedule. At the moment, it looks as though they could end up with literally any seed in their section. With three section opponents this week, they have an opportunity to hopefully pick up a couple section wins.
This week: Tues @ Virginia, Fri @ Greenway, Sat @ North Shore
14. [14] Thief River Falls (6-6)
After starting the season 2-6 with 4 losses to teams ranked above them (and the rest to AA teams), the Prowlers have won the last 4 games in a row. The defending 8A champion has only played one of their four games against Warroad and East Grand Forks thus far which was an OT loss. They play what should be two easy games this week and follow that up with two away games against both Warroad and East Grand Forks next week. The Prowlers started the season as a preseason top 10 team and are in control of their opportunity to make it back to the state tournament.
This week: Tues vs Park Rapids, Thurs vs Crookston
15. [15] St. Cloud Cathedral (8-6)
The Crusaders have had an interesting season; an early stretch of 5 games with wins over Breck and Delano but losses from EGF, Lourdes and Princeton. Recently they have lost to Warroad in OT and Holy Family. They will likely be in every game they play this season, but have shown they can lose close games. If they can win on Friday, they could potentially be the top seed in section 5A, but with their early loss to Princeton, they could fall as far as the 3rd seed.
This week: Fri vs #5 Hermantown
On the outside:
Princeton (12-2)
Princeton is leading the state in scoring with 92 goals, as one of only two teams with more than 80 goals. They have 2 skaters with over 30 points, 4 over 25, and 10 with over 10 points. When you look and see that 51 of those goals have come in 4 games, though, they are averaging 4.5 goals a game in the other 9 games, instead of the 7.1 they are averaging on the season with those games included. Regardless of how you look at it, they can score, and will continue to. This Thursday they travel to Oakdale where their scorers will be tested against a good Tartan goalie. They will likely only be tested four more times this season against Tartan, Little Falls, Delano and Cathedral. If they can beat both Rogers and Cathedral again, could they get the 2nd seed in section 5A?
Thurs @ Tartan, Sat vs Luverne
Mankato West (11-2)
The Scarlets are an interesting story this season. As I reported last week, they have two skaters with over 30 points, none of their 7 skaters with over 10 points are seniors and neither of their goalies are seniors. Regardless of the outcome of Tuesday’s game in Rochester, they will be in the section final game and likely the favorite in the section to start the year next season. What is so tough about them, though, is that Delano and Lourdes are the only notable MN teams on their schedule in either class. Both Hibbing and Virginia have now beaten the team who has given them their one MN loss. They play Mayo again in a month, but between now and then 7 games that should be easy wins for them and another 3 easy wins to follow before sections. It would be hard to argue with anyone say they should be a top 10 team, but also hard to argue that they shouldn’t be ranked. Tuesday’s game will hopefully tell us a lot about them. It appears as though the vast majority of their schedule are conference or sectional games; is there a way they could schedule some more quality opponents for next season when many of their top players will be seniors?
This week: Tues @ #7 Rochester Lourdes, Thurs @ Mankato East
Delano (8-5)
The Tigers have a season with no quality wins, but every loss they have came against a team ranked higher than them. They play a good Wright County schedule, which should prepare them well for sectional play. With their 2-goal loss to Breck and two games against Mound-Westonka to come, it apprears the 2nd seed in section 2A is theirs to lose.
This week: Tues vs Orono, Sat @ #7 Rochester Lourdes
Orono (9-3-1)
The Spartans are difficult to rank with few games against other competitive Class A teams on their schedule. They have few losses and a win over Denfeld. With 6 wins in their last 7 games, they too begin Wright County play and it will likely come down to them and Delano for both 2nd place in the conference as well as the 2nd seed in section 2A.
This week: Tues @ Delano, Fri vs Mound-Westonka
Virginia (3-9-1)
A very solid case could be made for having this team with 9 losses actually ranked as all of their losses are either to AA teams or teams ranked in my top 12, as well as tying my #13 team. Their most recent game was a win over the one MN team who’s beaten Mankato West. Their schedule allows for them to get a handful of wins in the next few weeks before ending the season with 4 of their last 5 games being against quality opponents.
This week: Tues vs International Falls, Sat @ Hibbing