HighSchoolHockeyForums.com

The Largest Prep Hockey Message Board Community on the Web
https://ushsho.com/forums/

KRACH Computer Rankings - Updated 03/10 FINAL

https://ushsho.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=29709

Page 1 of 6

KRACH Computer Rankings - Updated 03/10 FINAL

Posted: Thu Nov 29, 2012 11:51 am
by ghshockeyfan
I started to do the KRACH computer rankings for comparison to some alternative computer rankings already in existence... For anyone interested they are located at:

Most Recent Ranking Links:
==========================================
OVERALL:
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_OA.htm
CLASS AA:
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_AA.htm
CLASS A:
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_A.htm
SECTION:
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SEC.htm
SOS (Strength-Of-Schedule) is at:
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SOS.htm
==========================================

Main website: http://www.bgoski.com/b
Added info. is at: http://www.bgoski.com
And more info. on the girls forum at:
http://www.ushsho.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=29597
http://www.ushsho.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=27320

.
.
.
See MN Hockey Hub for rankings and more info.:
http://www.mngirlshockeyhub.com/page/sh ... h-rankings
1) This only counts games vs. MSHSL varsity teams.
2) This only uses scores entered on the Boys' Hockey Hub/MHCA website:
http://www.mnhockeyhub.com
To enter a missing score contact your team rep. Each team should have a person responsible for updating this information (coach, parent, manager, etc.) - you can also email: scores@mnhockeyhub.com - see: http://www.mnhockeyhub.com/page/show/13 ... ame-scores (they really want a scoresheet image though)
3) For further explanation see related girls' forum postings per recent seasons:
http://www.ushsho.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=27266
http://www.ushsho.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=24859
http://www.ushsho.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=21598
http://www.ushsho.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=18448
4) Most Recent Ranking Links:
==========================================
OVERALL:
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_OA.htm
CLASS AA:
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_AA.htm
CLASS A:
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_A.htm
SECTION:
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SEC.htm
SOS (Strength-Of-Schedule) is at:
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SOS.htm
==========================================
5) Past Ranking Links for 2012-13:
==========================================
OVERALL:
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_OA_20130310.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_OA_20130302.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_OA_20130218.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_OA_20130216.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_OA_20130213.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_OA_20130203.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_OA_20130202.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_OA_20130201.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_OA_20130131.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_OA_20130130.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_OA_20130129.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_OA_20130127.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_OA_20130126.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_OA_20130125.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_OA_20130124.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_OA_20130122.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_OA_20130120.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_OA_20130119.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_OA_20130118.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_OA_20130106.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_OA_20130105.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_OA_20130104.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_OA_20130103.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_OA_20130101.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_OA_20121230.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_OA_20121229.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_OA_20121223.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_OA_20121222.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_OA_20121221.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_OA_20121219.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_OA_20121218.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_OA_20121216.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_OA_20121215.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_OA_20121214.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_OA_20121212.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_OA_20121211.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_OA_20121209.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_OA_20121208.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_OA_20121207.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_OA_20121205.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_OA_20121202.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_OA_20121201.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_OA_20121130.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_OA_20121129.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_OA_20121128.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_OA_20121125.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_OA_20121124.htm (1st 2012-13 Ranking)
CLASS AA:
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_AA_20130310.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_AA_20130302.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_AA_20130218.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_AA_20130216.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_AA_20130213.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_AA_20130203.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_AA_20130202.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_AA_20130201.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_AA_20130131.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_AA_20130130.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_AA_20130129.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_AA_20130127.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_AA_20130126.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_AA_20130125.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_AA_20130124.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_AA_20130122.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_AA_20130120.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_AA_20130119.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_AA_20130118.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_AA_20130106.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_AA_20130105.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_AA_20130104.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_AA_20130103.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_AA_20130101.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_AA_20121230.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_AA_20121229.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_AA_20121223.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_AA_20121222.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_AA_20121221.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_AA_20121219.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_AA_20121218.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_AA_20121216.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_AA_20121215.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_AA_20121214.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_AA_20121212.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_AA_20121211.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_AA_20121209.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_AA_20121208.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_AA_20121207.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_AA_20121205.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_AA_20121202.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_AA_20121201.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_AA_20121130.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_AA_20121129.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_AA_20121128.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_AA_20121125.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_AA_20121124.htm (1st 2012-13 Ranking)
CLASS A:
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_A_20130310.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_A_20130302.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_A_20130218.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_A_20130216.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_A_20130213.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_A_20130203.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_A_20130202.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_A_20130201.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_A_20130131.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_A_20130130.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_A_20130129.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_A_20130127.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_A_20130126.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_A_20130125.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_A_20130124.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_A_20130122.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_A_20130120.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_A_20130119.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_A_20130118.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_A_20130106.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_A_20130105.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_A_20130104.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_A_20130103.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_A_20130101.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_A_20121230.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_A_20121229.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_A_20121223.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_A_20121222.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_A_20121221.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_A_20121219.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_A_20121218.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_A_20121216.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_A_20121215.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_A_20121214.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_A_20121212.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_A_20121211.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_A_20121209.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_A_20121208.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_A_20121207.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_A_20121205.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_A_20121202.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_A_20121201.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_A_20121130.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_A_20121129.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_A_20121128.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_A_20121125.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_A_20121124.htm (1st 2012-13 Ranking)
SECTION:
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SEC_20130310.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SEC_20130302.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SEC_20130218.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SEC_20130216.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SEC_20130213.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SEC_20130203.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SEC_20130202.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SEC_20130201.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SEC_20130131.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SEC_20130130.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SEC_20130129.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SEC_20130127.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SEC_20130126.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SEC_20130125.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SEC_20130124.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SEC_20130122.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SEC_20130120.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SEC_20130119.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SEC_20130118.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SEC_20130106.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SEC_20130105.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SEC_20130104.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SEC_20130103.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SEC_20130101.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SEC_20121230.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SEC_20121229.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SEC_20121223.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SEC_20121222.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SEC_20121221.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SEC_20121219.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SEC_20121218.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SEC_20121216.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SEC_20121215.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SEC_20121214.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SEC_20121212.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SEC_20121211.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SEC_20121209.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SEC_20121208.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SEC_20121207.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SEC_20121205.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SEC_20121202.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SEC_20121201.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SEC_20121130.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SEC_20121129.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SEC_20121128.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SEC_20121125.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SEC_20121124.htm (1st 2012-13 Ranking)
SOS (Strength-Of-Schedule) is at:
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SOS_20130310.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SOS_20130302.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SOS_20130218.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SOS_20130216.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SOS_20130213.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SOS_20130203.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SOS_20130202.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SOS_20130201.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SOS_20130131.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SOS_20130130.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SOS_20130129.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SOS_20130127.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SOS_20130126.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SOS_20130125.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SOS_20130124.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SOS_20130122.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SOS_20130120.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SOS_20130119.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SOS_20130118.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SOS_20130106.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SOS_20130105.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SOS_20130104.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SOS_20130103.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SOS_20130101.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SOS_20121230.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SOS_20121229.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SOS_20121223.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SOS_20121222.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SOS_20121221.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SOS_20121219.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SOS_20121218.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SOS_20121216.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SOS_20121215.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SOS_20121214.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SOS_20121212.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SOS_20121211.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SOS_20121209.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SOS_20121208.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SOS_20121207.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SOS_20121205.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SOS_20121202.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SOS_20121201.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SOS_20121130.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SOS_20121129.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SOS_20121128.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SOS_20121125.htm
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SOS_20121124.htm (1st 2012-13 Ranking)
==========================================

Updated 11/30 AM

Posted: Fri Nov 30, 2012 7:17 am
by ghshockeyfan
Updated 11/30 AM

450

Updated 12/01 AM

Posted: Sat Dec 01, 2012 10:57 am
by ghshockeyfan
Updated 12/01 AM

Computer rankings discussions...

Posted: Sat Dec 01, 2012 11:31 am
by ghshockeyfan
From a related thread:

http://www.ushsho.com/forums/viewtopic. ... ht=#605192
ghshockeyfan wrote:I'll be curious to see how KRACH computer ranking compares against some of the others mentioned here (Minnhock's PS2, USHSHO, MyHockeyRankings). KRACH is probably as "pure" as any algorithm in that it doesn't even care about score differential. That's why I prefer it. No additional human intervention.

Interestingly, it is supposed to give you odds on a game taking place. A team with a "10" rating value is considered the average team in the state regardless of Class designation. A team with, for example, a "100" rating is a 10:1 favorite over the average team. Similarly, you can compare any two teams based on their ratings.

SOS is just an average of opponents rankings played as of now.

Any computer ranking is worthless right now as many have said too limited data at this point.

http://www.ushsho.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=29709
Most Recent Ranking Links:
==========================================
OVERALL:
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_OA.htm
CLASS AA:
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_AA.htm
CLASS A:
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_A.htm
SECTION:
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SEC.htm
SOS (Strength-Of-Schedule) is at:
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SOS.htm
==========================================

Added info. is at:
http://www.bgoski.com
And more info. on the girls forum at:
http://www.ushsho.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=29597
http://www.ushsho.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=27320
Here's the real details about KRACH:
http://www.mscs.dal.ca/~butler/krachexp.htm

And, our friends at USCHO speak to KRACH vs other options (yep, 7+ years ago):
http://www.uscho.com/2005/03/17/lets-get-kraching/

In addition to their ongoing rankings for both genders at both levels:
http://www.uscho.com/rankings/
http://www.uscho.com/rankings/krach/d-i-men/
http://www.uscho.com/rankings/krach/d-i-women/
http://www.uscho.com/rankings/krach/d-iii-men/
http://www.uscho.com/rankings/krach/d-ii-iii-men/
http://www.uscho.com/rankings/krach/d-iii-women/
Basic Explanation
KRACH — or “Ken’s Ratings for American College Hockey” — is the implementation for college hockey of a sophisticated mathematical model known as the Bradley-Terry rating system, first applied to college hockey by a statistician named Ken Butler.

This method is based on a statistical technique called logistic regression, in essence meaning that teams’ ratings are determined directly from their won-loss records against one another. A key feature of KRACH is that strength of schedule is calculated directly from the ratings themselves, meaning that KRACH, unlike many ratings (including RPI) cannot easily be distorted by teams with strong records against weak opposition.

The ratings are on an odds scale, so if Team A’s KRACH rating is three times as large as Team B’s, Team A would be expected to amass a winning percentage of .750 and Team B a winning percentage of .250 if it played each other enough times. The correct ratings are defined such that the "expected" winning percentage for a team in the games it’s already played is equal to its "actual" winning percentage.

An alternative definition of a team’s KRACH rating is as the product of its Winning Ratio (winning percentage divided by one minus winning percentage) with the weighted average of its opponents’ KRACH ratings. (The definition of the weighting factor makes this equivalent to the first definition of the KRACH ratings.) In addition to KRACH and RRWP, the table above lists each team’s Winning Percentage, Winning Ratio and Strength of Schedule (the aforementioned weighted average of their opponents’ KRACH ratings).


KRACH is provided for entertainment purposes only and is not used in any official way, nor is it endorsed by USCHO.com.
From the Hub:
http://www.mngirlshockeyhub.com/page/sh ... h-rankings
http://www.bgoski.com
About KRACH:
=================
KRACH is short for “Ken's Rating for American College Hockey.” Ken is Ken Butler, a statistician, and the mathematical model he used is known as the Bradley-Terry Rating System. The system and its details are well documented in great mathematical detail online (see KRACH explanation at Ken Butler's homepage).

..
The KRACH rating system is an attempt to combine the performance of each team with the strength of the opposition against which that performance was achieved, and to summarize the result as one number, a "rating", for each team. The higher the rating, the better the team.

This system accounts for strength-of-schedule (SOS) as it ranks the teams.

Teams with equal records and differing SOS can quickly be ranked as a result (i.e. team with stronger SOS is ranked higher than other teams with same record and weaker SOS).

The ratings are calculated purely from the game results (win, loss or tie), and do not use the goals scored at all. Overtime wins count as wins. Ties, for KRACH's purposes, count as half a win and half a loss.

KRACH only counts games against Minnesota State High School League opponents.
..

Posted: Sat Dec 01, 2012 11:33 am
by inthetwine
So fr I'd say it is Crock, not Krach.

Posted: Sat Dec 01, 2012 11:36 am
by ghshockeyfan
inthetwine wrote:So fr I'd say it is Crock, not Krach.
Agreed. That's why the BOLD RED disclaimer is always there now (and also why no other computer ranking is posted this early). I believe in showing how it starts - even though it will lead to exactly the sort of conclusion you just posted.

Let's see how it compares in Jan or Feb...

Posted: Sat Dec 01, 2012 1:57 pm
by inthetwine
ghshockeyfan wrote:
inthetwine wrote:So fr I'd say it is Crock, not Krach.
Agreed. That's why the BOLD RED disclaimer is always there now (and also why no other computer ranking is posted this early). I believe in showing how it starts - even though it will lead to exactly the sort of conclusion you just posted.

Let's see how it compares in Jan or Feb...
That's why there are no other computer rankings posted yet, there is not enough data, so why do it at all.

Posted: Sat Dec 01, 2012 2:18 pm
by ghshockeyfan
inthetwine wrote:
ghshockeyfan wrote:
inthetwine wrote:So fr I'd say it is Crock, not Krach.
Agreed. That's why the BOLD RED disclaimer is always there now (and also why no other computer ranking is posted this early). I believe in showing how it starts - even though it will lead to exactly the sort of conclusion you just posted.

Let's see how it compares in Jan or Feb...
That's why there are no other computer rankings posted yet, there is not enough data, so why do it at all.
Right - I think we agree on the bold red disclaimer. I believe transparency is a good thing. So, I say, "why not?" instead. Gives people a chance to understand how things work and why it takes time (i.e. more scores) to sort everything out. Allows questions to be asked early on, discussions (like this) to take place, and learning for those that care to. Just a philosophical difference I guess. I'd rather say - "here it is, but we know it is garbage" (for a specific reason). Generates a lot more questions, people jump to conclusions that a system is bad, etc. - but I'm not afraid of that as it's worth it (in my mind) for the other reasons I mentioned. For those that don't want to see this so early, don't look until the bold red disclaimer goes away :D

Posted: Sat Dec 01, 2012 3:15 pm
by thestickler07
inthetwine wrote:That's why there are no other computer rankings posted yet, there is not enough data, so why do it at all.
+1

Posted: Sat Dec 01, 2012 5:21 pm
by Slap Shot
ghshockeyfan wrote:
inthetwine wrote:
ghshockeyfan wrote: Agreed. That's why the BOLD RED disclaimer is always there now (and also why no other computer ranking is posted this early). I believe in showing how it starts - even though it will lead to exactly the sort of conclusion you just posted.

Let's see how it compares in Jan or Feb...
That's why there are no other computer rankings posted yet, there is not enough data, so why do it at all.
Right - I think we agree on the bold red disclaimer. I believe transparency is a good thing.
Transparency insinuates that something will be revealed, but with so little data clearly that cannot happen this early. Knock yourself out I won't criticize your efforts, but am not surprised that others have.

Updated 12/02

Posted: Sun Dec 02, 2012 3:55 pm
by ghshockeyfan
Updated 12/02

Re: Updated 12/02

Posted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 10:23 pm
by joehockey
GSH - Thanks for your efforts and disclaimer. Look forward to see it evolve over the season.
ghshockeyfan wrote:Updated 12/02

These still don't mean much yet with so limited data (too few games played so far)...

Most Recent Ranking Links:
==========================================
OVERALL:
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_OA.htm
CLASS AA:
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_AA.htm
CLASS A:
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_A.htm
SECTION:
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SEC.htm
SOS (Strength-Of-Schedule) is at:
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SOS.htm
==========================================

Past rankings are at:
http://www.ushsho.com/forums/viewtopic. ... sc&start=0

1000-1650

Posted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 10:58 pm
by scorekeeper
ghshockeyfan wrote: KRACH is probably as "pure" as any algorithm in that it doesn't even care about score differential. That's why I prefer it. No additional human intervention.
I am interested to see how it develops. I admit I am very skeptical, but also always open to new ideas in this field.

Almost 2 decades of working with sports team quantification methods and I have yet to see a single system come close to being accurate that doesn't have margin of victory as it's backbone.

I have seen some come close where there is a BALANCED schedule. Then again, you don't need any rating if you have a balanced schedule. You only need standings.

Ratings are most useful in ranking teams in an unbalanced schedule, such as Minnesota High School Hockey or College Football. I am very curious to see if can achieve this without using margin of victory.

I admit I am skeptical, but curious to see how it progresses through the season.

I'll post mine every Wednesday for comparitive purposes.

Posted: Thu Dec 06, 2012 2:35 pm
by ghshockeyfan
scorekeeper wrote:
ghshockeyfan wrote: KRACH is probably as "pure" as any algorithm in that it doesn't even care about score differential. That's why I prefer it. No additional human intervention.
I am interested to see how it develops. I admit I am very skeptical, but also always open to new ideas in this field.

Almost 2 decades of working with sports team quantification methods and I have yet to see a single system come close to being accurate that doesn't have margin of victory as it's backbone.

I have seen some come close where there is a BALANCED schedule. Then again, you don't need any rating if you have a balanced schedule. You only need standings.

Ratings are most useful in ranking teams in an unbalanced schedule, such as Minnesota High School Hockey or College Football. I am very curious to see if can achieve this without using margin of victory.

I admit I am skeptical, but curious to see how it progresses through the season.

I'll post mine every Wednesday for comparitive purposes.
I appreciate the insight and my guess is that ratings that have margin of victory will likely converge quickly (fewer results/games to achieve a meaningful ranking that even some humans would agree with). Most interesting, for me, will be to compare the final set and understand why they differ. I know there are a few well accepted algorithms out there. I simply want to see how KRACH does with respect to these, the human polls (e.g. LPH), and the input from this forum being that some of the most informed humans are posting on here about what it is that we are ranking with various algorithms. I openly will state that I don't know enough about boys HS hockey in MN to know if KRACH or any other algorithm is working at all.

Re: Updated 12/02

Posted: Thu Dec 06, 2012 2:36 pm
by ghshockeyfan
joehockey wrote:GSH - Thanks for your efforts and disclaimer. Look forward to see it evolve over the season.
ghshockeyfan wrote:Updated 12/02

These still don't mean much yet with so limited data (too few games played so far)...

Most Recent Ranking Links:
==========================================
OVERALL:
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_OA.htm
CLASS AA:
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_AA.htm
CLASS A:
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_A.htm
SECTION:
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SEC.htm
SOS (Strength-Of-Schedule) is at:
http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SOS.htm
==========================================

Past rankings are at:
http://www.ushsho.com/forums/viewtopic. ... sc&start=0

1000-1650
Thanks Joe! :D

Updated 12/05

Posted: Thu Dec 06, 2012 2:42 pm
by ghshockeyfan
Updated 12/05

Updated 12/07

Posted: Fri Dec 07, 2012 9:23 am
by ghshockeyfan
Updated 12/07

Re: Updated 12/07

Posted: Fri Dec 07, 2012 11:29 am
by BodyShots
ghshockeyfan wrote:Updated 12/07

These still don't mean much yet with so limited data (too few games played so far)...
Yeah, I agree. Hastings is way to low. :P

Updated 12/08 PM - not all games are in...

Posted: Sat Dec 08, 2012 11:51 pm
by ghshockeyfan
Updated 12/08 PM - not all games are in...

Updated 12/09 3583

Posted: Sun Dec 09, 2012 9:34 am
by ghshockeyfan
Updated 12/09

Updated 12/11 AM 3943

Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 8:34 am
by ghshockeyfan
Updated 12/11 AM

Re: Updated 12/11 AM 3943

Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 9:46 am
by MNHockeyFan
ghshockeyfan wrote:Updated 12/11 AM

These still don't mean much yet with so limited data (too few games played so far)... (but are getting better)
Starting to make more sense! By early January after the Holiday tourneys KRACH will become an indispensable tool for evaluating the teams!

Re: Updated 12/11 AM 3943

Posted: Wed Dec 12, 2012 7:52 am
by ghshockeyfan
MNHockeyFan wrote:
ghshockeyfan wrote:Updated 12/11 AM

These still don't mean much yet with so limited data (too few games played so far)... (but are getting better)
Starting to make more sense! By early January after the Holiday tourneys KRACH will become an indispensable tool for evaluating the teams!
I'd like to believe so too - and will be interesting to see how they evolve relative to the other rankings out there. Thanks!

Updated 12/12 4602

Posted: Wed Dec 12, 2012 7:54 am
by ghshockeyfan
Updated 12/12

Updated 12/14 AM 5145

Posted: Fri Dec 14, 2012 6:10 pm
by ghshockeyfan
Updated 12/14 AM
All times are UTC-05:00
Page 1 of 6

Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Limited