HighSchoolHockeyForums.com

Just posted an interest perspective on the current NHL draft at

http://youthhockeyhub.com/

Minn 10 Players drafted, Mich 8 Mass 8

I agree that there is more then one Minnesota player drafted in the first six rounds, but one of them came directly from a public or private high school program. The others came after spending two years at other places such as the US national teams. Remember we are talking about basically kids born in 1994.

All ten Minnesota played youth hockey in Minnesota. For the amount of money spent in Ann Arbor they better be developing players, also there are a number of Mn High school players that turn down the invite. As for Shattuck it is no surprise as to their success when you can get players from every state and start their season early. The NHL has the complete results posted,it is interesting where some of the other USA players played their hockey.
For a bit of history with this year added.
2000-2012
Minn- 175
Mich- 87
Mass-86
NY - 76
No other state has over 40.

Frederick, you seem to be confused about cause and effect.

My point is simple. The Minnesota kids who play hockey and graduate from high school were not drafted by the NHL in the first six rounds this year. The kids who play hockey through other venues the last two years of high school (like those fortunate enough to make a USA hockey team) were drafted in much larger numbers. Further, high school graduates in other states were being drafted and Minnesota kids were not.

That means if the number of high draft choices matter, then the Minnesota State High School League rules matter; then rules such as limiting the number of games played in their junior and senior years to less then half games that are played at other vernues matter.

The question is does giving a high school graduate a shot at a high draft choice mean something to Minnesota Hockey? Right now, they have being over taken by kids who who go to places like Shattuck or a high school in Mass.

Great points Frederick. Time to remove some of the shakels

frederick61 wrote:My point is simple. The Minnesota kids who play hockey and graduate from high school were not drafted by the NHL in the first six rounds this year. The kids who play hockey through other venues the last two years of high school (like those fortunate enough to make a USA hockey team) were drafted in much larger numbers. Further, high school graduates in other states were being drafted and Minnesota kids were not.

Right now, they have being over taken by kids who who go to places like Shattuck or a high school in Mass.

I'm amazed you can draw this conclusion. The NHL names what amateur league a kid last played in when they list draftees. In 2011 there were just two players coded "HIGH-MA" in the entire draft. How many coded "HIGH-MN"?

The other thing to consider is that not all HIGH-MAs are traditional high school students. (This year there were more.) Usually these are kids that are recruited to attend Prep schools with a hockey team, somewhat like Shattuck-St. Mary's. I'm amazed at how few players get drafted after playing Prep School hockey.

Frederick, I don't think Minnesota Hockey needs to be too worried. Kids like Corbett and Skjei played youth hockey in Minnesota and chose a path other than MSHSL competition for their final years of HS. Picking one year where Massachusetts reversed a decades-long trend in the direction of irrelevance doesn't suddenly mean things are broken in Minnesota. As Greybeard points out, the number of Minnesotans drafted over the last several years remains healthy.

O-townClown wrote:

frederick61 wrote:My point is simple. The Minnesota kids who play hockey and graduate from high school were not drafted by the NHL in the first six rounds this year. The kids who play hockey through other venues the last two years of high school (like those fortunate enough to make a USA hockey team) were drafted in much larger numbers. Further, high school graduates in other states were being drafted and Minnesota kids were not.

Right now, they have being over taken by kids who who go to places like Shattuck or a high school in Mass.

I'm amazed you can draw this conclusion. The NHL names what amateur league a kid last played in when they list draftees. In 2011 there were just two players coded "HIGH-MA" in the entire draft. How many coded "HIGH-MN"?

The other thing to consider is that not all HIGH-MAs are traditional high school students. (This year there were more.) Usually these are kids that are recruited to attend Prep schools with a hockey team, somewhat like Shattuck-St. Mary's. I'm amazed at how few players get drafted after playing Prep School hockey.

Frederick, I don't think Minnesota Hockey needs to be too worried. Kids like Corbett and Skjei played youth hockey in Minnesota and chose a path other than MSHSL competition for their final years of HS. Picking one year where Massachusetts reversed a decades-long trend in the direction of irrelevance doesn't suddenly mean things are broken in Minnesota. As Greybeard points out, the number of Minnesotans drafted over the last several years remains healthy.

And remember, either way, these kids were trained as youth in Minnesota even if they opted out their last two years of High school. I would guess they were pretty darn good when they left...

Fred
Since the NHL has a detailed record of their drafts,maybe you should go back about 10 years to get a more accurate number. David Backes played at Spring Lake Park High school, this is but one example.
This year for Minn is the lowest number since the 2002 draft,but still better than most. Mass 2011 had 3 drafted,2010 has 7 drafted, Mich 2011 had 2 2010 had 10, while for those same years Minn had 15 and 17. Every year the numbers do move and Minn has been the leader in players drafted.
Also this year there were 56 listed as USA but 3 were born here but live in other countries, 2012 53 American players,2011 66 American players,2010 57 players.
There have been a large number of 7th round picks that have had good NHL careers and also some #1 picks that disappeared or had very short careers.

I found some data from the NHL that summarizes NHL entry level by year from 1980 to 2011.

From 1982 to 1990, the NHL drafted an average of 250 kids each year and approximately 20% of the kids drafted (50 players) were drafted out of high schools all over the USA.

From 1991 to 1994, the NHL drafted an average of 270 kids each year and 10% (or 27) were drafted out of high school. From 1995 to 2003, the NHL drafted and average 275 kids and only 2% (or 5 kids) were drafted out of high school.

From 2004 to 2011 an average of 210 of kids were drafted each year and only 10% (or 20) were drafted out of high school.

The statistics did not distinguish which high schools in which states, but there is some indication that Shattuck-St. Mary’s was classified as midget not high school until the past few years and not included in the high school category.

In 2011, eight of the 18 high school kids drafted came from Minnesota. I could not find a break down that showed what high school the kids attended for the prior years, especially from 2004 to 2010. Statistically, 2011 or 2012 could be an anomaly. Or statistically, 2012 could be a year where things change. Time will tell.

The question I asked is does this matter? A good percentage of the Minnesota kids not drafted out of high school end up playing college hockey somewhere along with a good number of the kids drafted. A case can be made that a Minnesota kid going to another venue can improve on the draft, but does that have benefit the kid over the next 10 years?

If it does, should the State High School League change it's rules. The high school hockey season is constrainted to fit between the end of football season the weekend after Thanksgiving and its rotating place in the sequence of winter state tourneys (wrestling, girls basketball, girls hockey, and boys basketball) which is done for television reasons.

Judd Peterson and Louie Nanne were also both drafted (out of MN High School) in this draft.

Wasn't it just four or five years ago that there were three high school seniors from MN taken in just the first round?

No Fred, Minnesota's high school league should not change it rules. Hockey, as a Winter sport, will be played between Fall and Spring.

5 of the 6 top scoring Minnesotan NHL players spent a good amount of time playing Tier 1/Midget Hockey. The one that didn't, Backes, supplemented his high school season with some games in the USHL. Shouldn't this tell you something(yes!) when there are so FEW from MN that play Tier 1?

Minnesota puts out a product of good to great skaters(plenty of outdoor ice) that are not battle tested because of the lack of games. Canadian/Tier 1 kids can expect to play twice as many games by the time they get to draft age.

Sorry to burst the bubble.

frederick61 wrote:I found some data from the NHL that summarizes NHL entry level by year from 1980 to 2011.

From 1982 to 1990, the NHL drafted an average of 250 kids each year and approximately 20% of the kids drafted (50 players) were drafted out of high schools all over the USA.

From 1991 to 1994, the NHL drafted an average of 270 kids each year and 10% (or 27) were drafted out of high school. From 1995 to 2003, the NHL drafted and average 275 kids and only 2% (or 5 kids) were drafted out of high school.

From 2004 to 2011 an average of 210 of kids were drafted each year and only 10% (or 20) were drafted out of high school.

The statistics did not distinguish which high schools in which states, but there is some indication that Shattuck-St. Mary’s was classified as midget not high school until the past few years and not included in the high school category.

In 2011, eight of the 18 high school kids drafted came from Minnesota. I could not find a break down that showed what high school the kids attended for the prior years, especially from 2004 to 2010. Statistically, 2011 or 2012 could be an anomaly. Or statistically, 2012 could be a year where things change. Time will tell.

The question I asked is does this matter? A good percentage of the Minnesota kids not drafted out of high school end up playing college hockey somewhere along with a good number of the kids drafted. A case can be made that a Minnesota kid going to another venue can improve on the draft, but does that have benefit the kid over the next 10 years?

If it does, should the State High School League change it's rules. The high school hockey season is constrainted to fit between the end of football season the weekend after Thanksgiving and its rotating place in the sequence of winter state tourneys (wrestling, girls basketball, girls hockey, and boys basketball) which is done for television reasons.

Good post.

MrBoDangles wrote:5 of the 6 top scoring Minnesotan NHL players spent a good amount of time playing Tier 1/Midget Hockey. The one that didn't, Backes, supplemented his high school season with some games in the USHL. Shouldn't this tell you something(yes!) when there are so FEW from MN that play Tier 1?

Minnesota puts out a product of good to great skaters(plenty of outdoor ice) that are not battle tested because of the lack of games. Canadian/Tier 1 kids can expect to play twice as many games by the time they get to draft age.

Sorry to burst the bubble.

Good post Mr Dangle, average age of a Minnesota High School player is 16.5 years old. An 18 year old playing in Minnesota high school is playing against kids alot younger. Take a look at the OHL, WHL, USHL , an 18 yr old is playing against kids that are older, draft eligible kids that are good in these leagues go alot higher in the draft.
Minnesota high school hockey is more of a crapshoot for scouts when evaluating talent here, they can`t tell how good the kid is because he plays against younger competition and plays less games and now with the rule changes.

2112 wrote:

MrBoDangles wrote:5 of the 6 top scoring Minnesotan NHL players spent a good amount of time playing Tier 1/Midget Hockey. The one that didn't, Backes, supplemented his high school season with some games in the USHL. Shouldn't this tell you something(yes!) when there are so FEW from MN that play Tier 1?

Minnesota puts out a product of good to great skaters(plenty of outdoor ice) that are not battle tested because of the lack of games. Canadian/Tier 1 kids can expect to play twice as many games by the time they get to draft age.

Sorry to burst the bubble.

Good post Mr Dangle, average age of a Minnesota High School player is 16.5 years old. An 18 year old playing in Minnesota high school is playing against kids alot younger. Take a look at the OHL, WHL, USHL , an 18 yr old is playing against kids that are older, draft eligible kids that are good in these leagues go alot higher in the draft.
Minnesota high school hockey is more of a crapshoot for scouts when evaluating talent here, they can`t tell how good the kid is because he plays against younger competition and plays less games and now with the rule changes.

I agree with your post but isn't that what the Elite League was supposed to help with?

There aren't a whole lot of reasons to take a Minnesota high school kid unless that kid is a first round draft choice kid. Because most of the top of them go on to the USHL then the NCAA NHL scouts have time to wait and see how they develop. Taking a Minnesota kid who goes on to 2 years of USHL before heading to the NCAA means you risk losing that draft pick. The NHL draft rules state "A player not signed by his NHL team within two years can re-enter the draft provided they are not older than 20 at the time of the subsquesent draft." So if you draft an 18 year old Minnesota high school senior he had either better sign or enroll in college or it could be a wasted pick. A college scholarship is more valuable than a 7th round draft picks signing bonus and signing means you lose your NCAA eligibility.

Maybe I'm missing something here but it's better for NHL teams to take a wait and see approach, as the NCAA exception allows the NHL teams longer to sign their picks, draft a 19 year old in the USHL and you have from then until 30 days after he leaves college to sign him, making him possibly 24 versus possibly losing the kid in 2 years prior to the kid even going to college.

If Shattuck is taking only the very very top MN kids, wouldn't it make sense they would be drafted higher than most MN high schoolers? I guess the question should be would the shattuck kids done better or worst in the draft had they stayed at their high school? Personally, I believe they would not have done as well in the draft.