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Class A Rankings 1-22-12

Posted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 10:24 am
by HShockeywatcher
Not much change this week, with the exception of adding a team to the end of rankings. Little Falls is added to the list after a very exciting week for many of our teams. St Thomas and Breck show how close they are by their OT game this week.
I will start ranking more sections next week.

As always, enjoy!

1. St Thomas Academy (11-4) [6-0]
A one goal loss in a very close game with Shattuck followed by a very close game with an OT win over Breck and the Cadets cling onto the top spot by a hair. Big conference rivalry game this week with Hill Murray; can they play another good game but come out on top this time?
This week: Thurs vs Hill Murray, Sat @ Richfield

2. Breck (13-2) [9-1]
The Mustangs went to OT in a very close game with St Thomas and were less than 2 minutes away from a tie. The remainder of the season they play Blake twice, Totino, Lourdes and a bunch of conference games. If Hermantown doesn’t lose, there will most like be a rematch with the Cadets on neutral ice.
This week: Thurs vs Blake

3. Hermantown (18-0) [10-0]
The Hawks very well may be the best team in the state; they are the only team who is still undefeated in either class. They only graduated a handful of seniors last year (two of their 4 All-Tournament players are back this year) and it is very possible many of the close games they have had were the result of an effort to give players on lower lines more time to develop. It is difficult to assess based on scores.
This week: Tues vs Proctor, Sat vs New Prague

4. Duluth Marshall (13-5) [11-3]
Hopefully their away shut out helped prepare the Hilltoppers in some way for their loaded week. No chance to rise this week, but even one loss, depending on what EGF, and Marshall could fall a spot this week. There should be some great games at Mars Arena.
This week: Tues vs Cloquet, Fri vs Warroad, Sat vs Thief River Falls

5. East Grand Forks (12-5) [8-0]
The Green Wave play TRF for the top spot in 8A, and then two teams who they have three of their losses against. If they can manage to win all their games this week, they will most likely earn the 4th seed at state if they make it, although they will play TRF again.
This week: Tues @ Thief River Falls, Thurs vs Grand Forks Red River, Fri vs Bemidji

6. Totino-Grace (11-5) [8-4]
Not much happened last week and not much is likely to this week for the Eagles. After this week they have their 4 toughest teams of the season in a span of 3 weeks.
This week: Tues vs Mounds View, Thurs @ St Francis

7. St Cloud Cathedral (12-4) [12-3]
The Crusaders will be able to play with anyone if their defense shows up. They have played close games with most of the good teams they’ve played and not gotten blown out by any while dominating all of the lesser opponents they have played with 4 shut outs this season and are coming off two 1 GA games this week. Expect them to allow 2 or less goals this week, as they prepare to host two Falls teams next week.
This week: Tues @ Litchfield, Thurs vs Wadena

8. Mahtomedi (10-7) [6-4]
The loss to Tartan was odd, but it was in OT and they followed it up by beating a decent SSP team. They held the Pioneers to 3 goals while scoring 1 when they played at Aldrich. Can they pull out a win at home on Saturday?
This week: Thurs vs Simley, Sat vs Hill-Murray

9. Thief River Falls (12-3-1) [9-2]
The Prowlers played a very close game with Warroad this week, winning 2-1 in OT. A win on Tuesday in EGF will put them in control on section 8A, although not lock it up because they play again. Expect them to give the Toppers a run for their money on Saturday.
This week: Tues vs East Grand Forks, Fri @ Denfeld, Sat @ Duluth Marshall

10. Warroad (8-8-1) [5-5]
Losing in OT in TRF and following that up by losing to Moorhead by the same margin Breck lost to them isn’t a bad sign. They have three away games this week and will likely win 2 or 3 of them. The Warriors will likely make some noise in section 8A and no one would bat an eye were they to make some noise at state.
This week: Tues @ Crookston, Fri @ Duluth Marshall, Sat @ Denfeld

11. Little Falls (13-6) [13-6]
This is a huge jump this week as I have reevaluated the Fliers’ season. They started the season 3-6 with all of those losses being by 1 goal and 3 of them coming in OT, while 1 of those wins was against Lourdes. After that start, they started their current 10 game win streak with an away win over Rogers. They will likely win at least 5 of their remaining 7 as both Cathedral and Hermantown will definitely put up a fight for them. In their last 6 games they have averaged just over 6 GF and 0.33 GA with 4 shut outs. Should be a good game against Fergus Falls this week to prepare for two good games next week.
This week: Fri vs Fergus Falls

12. Rochester Lourdes (12-5) [8-3]
The Eagles are coming off a dominating win at Chanhassen. Expect Lourdes to cruise through section 1A, most likely get beat in the first round at state and come home with a possible consolation championship if they can beat whoever comes out of 8A.
This week: Sat @ Delano

13. Delano (12-5) [8-5]
The Tigers are definitely a team who can play with anyone as they have scored 3 against Marshall, 2 against Breck while holding them to 4 and took Cathedral to OT. They could possibly win out, get a seed better than 4th in section 2A and make some noise in the section. No one will expect them to beat Breck, but playing them wouldn’t be surprised and if they are to lose no games between now and then I wouldn’t bet too much against them.
This week: Tues vs Holy Family Catholic, Thurs @ Waconia, Sat vs Lourdes

14. St Louis Park (12-4) [9-2]
The Orioles get some more wins under their belt and jump ahead of Blake based on their win over Minnehaha, but other are very difficult to decipher what their convincing wins mean. It will be interesting to see how they do against Hopkins this week.
This week: Tues @ St Paul Como Park, Thurs vs Chisago Lakes Area, Sat @ Hopkins

15. Blake (11-6) [10-1]
It is interesting seeing the Bears down this low considering the wins they have over two much higher teams, but score comparisons put them here. Depending on what coaches in the section believe, they may have the #2 seed locked up. It also may depend on how close they can play Breck, considering Delano played them close. Should be an exciting away game against Breck this week.
This week: Thurs @ Breck, Sat @ St Paul Johnson

16. Rogers (10-5) [5-5]
I added another spot this week because the Royals are a team to be watching and the last few teams are very close. They will likely win both games this week and all three next week to prepare for going to Rochester the week after.
This week: Tues @ St Francis, Sat vs Cambridge-Isanti


Section Standings if the season ended today

3A
Marshall (3-2)
New Ulm (1-1)
Luverne (1-1)
Hutchinson (1-2)

There were not games between these 4 this past week and it is really hard to tell what will happen.
-Marshall’s overall section record is 9-2 and with wins over each of these teams, they seem to control their own destiny depending on the result of their game against New Ulm next week.
-New Ulm is 1-3 in their last 4 games but with losses to good teams, so they are hard to compare; if they beat Marshall next week they should get the top seed, but if not all bets are off.
-Luverne is 8-0-1 in their last 9 wins, which includes a win over Marshall. They don’t play any more of these teams this year and haven’t played New Ulm or Hutch this season. It would be interesting to see how they get seeded if they are to win out and be 19-3-1 going into sections. Could they make it to state?
-I doubt anyone would be surprised to see Hutch pull some upsets in this section with the schedule they’ve been playing.

6A
Little Falls (1-1)
Alexandria (1-1)
Fergus Falls (1-1)

While I think it’s tough to put the Fliers above the Cardinals at the moment considering the result of the head to head match up, Little Falls definitely controls their own destiny as they are on a 10 game winning streak at the moment. Their next two games are against Fergus Falls and Alexandria, with Fergus being their only game this week.


State Seeding if Section Top Seeds Won Their Section Today
#1 St Thomas
#2 Breck
#3 Hermantown
#4 Duluth Marshall
(5) East Grand Forks
(6) Little Falls
(7) Rochester Lourdes
(8] Marshall

Posted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 11:16 am
by rainier
I like the rankings with 1 exception: Breck ahead of Hermantown is completely insane.

Hermantown is 18-0 with wins over ranked A teams Totino-Grace, Rogers, Thief River, Duluth Marshall, S.C. Cathedral and convincing wins over top 20 AA teams Grand Rapids and Bemidji.

Breck is 13-2 with wins over ranked A teams Duluth Marshall, Delano, S.C. Cathedral, Mahtomedi, a narrow win over one solid AA opponent (Lakeville South) and a convincing loss to their other good AA opponent, Moorhead.

Hermantown's resume is better and they are undefeated.

Posted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 1:24 pm
by HShockeywatcher
So you're okay with St Thomas at #1, but want the team that took them to OT to be two spots below them?

All 4 human rankings (LPH, FTP, hub and karl) have Moorhead in their top 8 and Grand Rapids outside their top 12. I still don't understand how losing to a top 8 team (and beating Lakeville south) is worse than beating a #13 or #14 team. The three of those rankings also have Hermantown ahead of Breck as of last week.

How is a 5-2 win "convincing" while a 6-4 win is "narrow?"

I agree their highs are comparable to both St Thomas and Breck, but both private schools lack the close games Hermantown has had. Anyway, I respect your opinion and know the distance between 1, 2 and 3 is very small.

Had they not allowed more goals to Bemidji than EGF, Sartell, Warroad, TRF, and Crookston or they had not come from behind scoring 2 goals late during a major Superior penalty to beat Superior by 1, we may not be having this discussion. Maybe it is all because of letting their younger players play once the victory was secure, but I doubt it.

Posted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 1:41 pm
by trev2k1
not surprised LF hit the board but 11th 8)
goaltending is picking up and 2nd and 3rd line as well.

EGF too high

Posted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 3:10 pm
by TTpuckster
Although I am a Green Wave booster,

Considering their losses to Roseau and Moorhead, I believe they are too high.
I do not believe they have the depth to be in the top 5.

Posted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 9:10 pm
by rainier
HShockeywatcher wrote:So you're okay with St Thomas at #1, but want the team that took them to OT to be two spots below them?

Yep, that's exactly what I'm saying. Hermantown keeps winning, Breck lost AGAIN; adjust the rankings accordingly.

All 4 human rankings (LPH, FTP, hub and karl) have Moorhead in their top 8 and Grand Rapids outside their top 12. I still don't understand how losing to a top 8 team (and beating Lakeville south) is worse than beating a #13 or #14 team. The three of those rankings also have Hermantown ahead of Breck as of last week.

Hermantown handled the #13 AA team in a convincing manner, Breck got handled by the #8 AA team in a convincing manner, I think that closes that gap, leaving Hermantown ahead. And you're using the human rankings to support your argument, but you routinely seek shelter in the computer rankings when defending your rankings. Who do you give more credence to, the computer or human polls? Pick one and stick with it.

How is a 5-2 win "convincing" while a 6-4 win is "narrow?"

I give you this point, I am splitting hairs. But I watched the Herm-GR game online and at no point did I think GR was the better team. I watched the Breck-Moorhead game in person, and at no point did I think Breck was the better team. Once again, that closes the gap.


I agree their highs are comparable to both St Thomas and Breck, but both private schools lack the close games Hermantown has had. Anyway, I respect your opinion and know the distance between 1, 2 and 3 is very small.

If you think the distance between 1-3 is small, then why not go with the team that has not lost a game yet? I consent that STA's schedule is hard enough that a solid argument can be made for them at #1, but Breck's is not. And if you want to use a teams' low point to support your argument, than what does STA's 1-0 win over SSP mean? Shouldn't STA drop if close games against marginal teams are given significant weight?


Had they not allowed more goals to Bemidji than EGF, Sartell, Warroad, TRF, and Crookston or they had not come from behind scoring 2 goals late during a major Superior penalty to beat Superior by 1, we may not be having this discussion. Maybe it is all because of letting their younger players play once the victory was secure, but I doubt it.
C'mon now, you're really grasping at straws here; Hermantown outscored them by 6 goals. That is a good ol' fashioned buttkicking. The goal differential in the 5 Bemidji games you mention were as follows: (2,2,1,1,and 2). Hermantown won by six goals. Your position on this is indefensible.

Posted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 10:11 pm
by blacklung
rainier wrote:
HShockeywatcher wrote:So you're okay with St Thomas at #1, but want the team that took them to OT to be two spots below them?

Yep, that's exactly what I'm saying. Hermantown keeps winning, Breck lost AGAIN; adjust the rankings accordingly.

All 4 human rankings (LPH, FTP, hub and karl) have Moorhead in their top 8 and Grand Rapids outside their top 12. I still don't understand how losing to a top 8 team (and beating Lakeville south) is worse than beating a #13 or #14 team. The three of those rankings also have Hermantown ahead of Breck as of last week.

Hermantown handled the #13 AA team in a convincing manner, Breck got handled by the #8 AA team in a convincing manner, I think that closes that gap, leaving Hermantown ahead. And you're using the human rankings to support your argument, but you routinely seek shelter in the computer rankings when defending your rankings. Who do you give more credence to, the computer or human polls? Pick one and stick with it.

How is a 5-2 win "convincing" while a 6-4 win is "narrow?"

I give you this point, I am splitting hairs. But I watched the Herm-GR game online and at no point did I think GR was the better team. I watched the Breck-Moorhead game in person, and at no point did I think Breck was the better team. Once again, that closes the gap.


I agree their highs are comparable to both St Thomas and Breck, but both private schools lack the close games Hermantown has had. Anyway, I respect your opinion and know the distance between 1, 2 and 3 is very small.

If you think the distance between 1-3 is small, then why not go with the team that has not lost a game yet? I consent that STA's schedule is hard enough that a solid argument can be made for them at #1, but Breck's is not. And if you want to use a teams' low point to support your argument, than what does STA's 1-0 win over SSP mean? Shouldn't STA drop if close games against marginal teams are given significant weight?


Had they not allowed more goals to Bemidji than EGF, Sartell, Warroad, TRF, and Crookston or they had not come from behind scoring 2 goals late during a major Superior penalty to beat Superior by 1, we may not be having this discussion. Maybe it is all because of letting their younger players play once the victory was secure, but I doubt it.
C'mon now, you're really grasping at straws here; Hermantown outscored them by 6 goals. That is a good ol' fashioned buttkicking. The goal differential in the 5 Bemidji games you mention were as follows: (2,2,1,1,and 2). Hermantown won by six goals. Your position on this is indefensible.
Only HSHW could find a way to use Hermantown's 10-4 thumping of Bemidji against them and prop up his Sta team. Wow.

Posted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 10:14 pm
by blacklung
I believe by Wednesday, HSHW will have the only poll in the free world that has Hermantown at #3 in MN HS Class A Hockey :lol:

Posted: Mon Jan 23, 2012 7:16 am
by HShockeywatcher
TTpuckster wrote:Although I am a Green Wave booster,

Considering their losses to Roseau and Moorhead, I believe they are too high.
I do not believe they have the depth to be in the top 5.
Well, Moorhead's tough to compare to the teams outside the top 3, as they even beat Breck in what was a close game on paper. I would also say that while they may not be a "great" team as far as the top 3/4 are concerned, they were good enough to beat the #6 team, who has beaten teams teams below them, as well as other section opponents.

The top teams seem to be separating themselves, but to justify dropping EGF any farther, imo, would be tough. We'll see after this week though.
rainier wrote:C'mon now, you're really grasping at straws here; Hermantown outscored them by 6 goals. That is a good ol' fashioned buttkicking. The goal differential in the 5 Bemidji games you mention were as follows: (2,2,1,1,and 2). Hermantown won by six goals. Your position on this is indefensible.
I'm not "using" the human rankings to support anything. I brought them up to say I disagree with the logic associated with how they have ranked the teams. Computer rankings are the only ones to have no bias (or consistently have the same bias, however you want to look at it).

Somehow saying that beating #13 is better than losing to #8 is really getting lost on me.

According to PageStat, Breck's schedule is tougher than Hermantown's.

You're right, they did kick #37 Bemidji's butt. To jump to the conclusion they are better than #9 Breck based on that is just that, a huge jump.
Hermantown allows 4 to the #37 team and Breck allows 5 to the #11 team. If you like to use scores from the beginning of the season, Breck beat #30 SCC 8-1.
blacklung wrote:Only HSHW could find a way to use Hermantown's 10-4 thumping of Bemidji against them and prop up his Sta team. Wow.
Prop them up? They were at #1 and just beat #2.
It's funny that their defense is what everyone brags about, not their offense, and when things like this happen, you brush it off like it was nothing and discuss something else.

Posted: Mon Jan 23, 2012 7:57 am
by Mite-dad
You know, Hermantown, STA, Breck, DMarshall, and Warroad should just schedule each other every year. They are the top 3-5 teams every year anyways. Heck, lets make a holiday tournament out of it. Then we would know who was the best.

Posted: Mon Jan 23, 2012 8:31 am
by rainier
[quote="HShockeywatcher"]

Somehow saying that beating #13 is better than losing to #8 is really getting lost on me.

I'm not sure why this is getting lost on you, because beating #13 is absolutely better than losing to #8. Ask all of the players on Breck and Hermantown and they will tell you which is better.

So this is where we differ. To me, it makes perfect sense that when two teams are considered to be about equal (Breck and Hermantown) and one of them loses convincingly to #8 while the other beats #13 convincingly, the team that won its game should move ahead.

According to PageStat, Breck's schedule is tougher than Hermantown's.

Okay, but is it so much tougher that it cancels out the fact that Breck has two losses and Hermantown has none? I doubt it.

You're right, they did kick #37 Bemidji's butt. To jump to the conclusion they are better than #9 Breck based on that is just that, a huge jump.
Hermantown allows 4 to the #37 team and Breck allows 5 to the #11 team. If you like to use scores from the beginning of the season, Breck beat #30 SCC 8-1.

I am not saying they are better than Breck based solely on the Bemidji game (please refer to the part of this message where I discuss the Moorhead/GR games and how I feel that should affect the rankings), but I am saying it strengthens Hermantown's resume.

You really need to quit talking about how many goals Hermantown allowed to Bemidji as a way of making a point, this twisted logic really hurts your credibility and makes everyone go :roll:
Hermantown won 10-4! They were up 7-2 after 2 periods! And this game happened two days ago, while your Breck-SCC game happened in November-and SCC was missing key players.


Why do you think it is that you are the only human-based ranking that has Breck ahead of Hermantown? You have repeatedly presented your rationale, and it is repeatedly weak and filled with holes.

Posted: Mon Jan 23, 2012 8:49 am
by mnmouth
For the life of me, I cannot understand why a Hermantown team that is undefeated and has played a quality schedule is not ranked no. 1. All this mumbo jumbo about what team has played what team, with stats analyzed, synthesized and hypothesized, means squat when a team HAS NOT LOST. On the other hand, this is exactly where Plante wants his team, on the outside looking in.

Posted: Mon Jan 23, 2012 9:08 am
by defense
mnmouth wrote:For the life of me, I cannot understand why a Hermantown team that is undefeated and has played a quality schedule is not ranked no. 1. All this mumbo jumbo about what team has played what team, with stats analyzed, synthesized and hypothesized, means squat when a team HAS NOT LOST. On the other hand, this is exactly where Plante wants his team, on the outside looking in.
Because in order to have a "quality " schedule, you have to play 20 games against top ten teams who are also from the twin cities.....or at least it seems that way to certain people.

Posted: Mon Jan 23, 2012 9:09 am
by HawkeyPower
As a Hermantown fan I could care less where HSHW or any of the other polls have Hermantown. The only thing that matters is where you finish after the last game you play. I think if Hermantown played STA at State and won in OT HSHW would still have STA ahead of Hermantown somehow. One persons opinion is just that, a opinion. Or entertainment to pass along time until we get to where the season really matters.

Posted: Mon Jan 23, 2012 9:16 am
by rainier
HawkeyPower wrote:As a Hermantown fan I could care less where HSHW or any of the other polls have Hermantown. The only thing that matters is where you finish after the last game you play. I think if Hermantown played STA at State and won in OT HSHW would still have STA ahead of Hermantown somehow. One persons opinion is just that, a opinion. Or entertainment to pass along time until we get to where the season really matters.
Bingo. Fun to debate about all of this during the season, and when playoffs start, the arguments will be settled on the ice.

As was said on here before, if Hermantown is undefeated going into the tourney, they will be the #1 seed.

Posted: Mon Jan 23, 2012 9:59 am
by mnmouth
rainier wrote:
HawkeyPower wrote:As a Hermantown fan I could care less where HSHW or any of the other polls have Hermantown. The only thing that matters is where you finish after the last game you play. I think if Hermantown played STA at State and won in OT HSHW would still have STA ahead of Hermantown somehow. One persons opinion is just that, a opinion. Or entertainment to pass along time until we get to where the season really matters.
Bingo. Fun to debate about all of this during the season, and when playoffs start, the arguments will be settled on the ice.

As was said on here before, if Hermantown is undefeated going into the tourney, they will be the #1 seed.
It does matter, at least somewhat, else we would not be reading, commenting or arguing about these polls.

And really, the Hawks should enter the postseason undefeated (unless Cloquet gets past them on 2/2), get through a chump section and head to state as the #1.

Posted: Mon Jan 23, 2012 9:59 am
by blacklung
rainier wrote:
HawkeyPower wrote:As a Hermantown fan I could care less where HSHW or any of the other polls have Hermantown. The only thing that matters is where you finish after the last game you play. I think if Hermantown played STA at State and won in OT HSHW would still have STA ahead of Hermantown somehow. One persons opinion is just that, a opinion. Or entertainment to pass along time until we get to where the season really matters.
Bingo. Fun to debate about all of this during the season, and when playoffs start, the arguments will be settled on the ice.

As was said on here before, if Hermantown is undefeated going into the tourney, they will be the #1 seed.
I agree, but I think it is importrant for readers to know that the person that does the Class A rankings is a Sta grad.

Below is a Qoute from Lee that sums it up pretty well talking about the Marshall game that the teams have common opponent in.
Herm 5
Marshall 1

STA 4
Marshall 3 OT win.

Lee Quote:
"Not to mention that Hermantown's win was on the road at Mars Lakeview. STA's was at home. So the advantage slides even further in Hermantown's direction."

"Only problem is; HSHW is a STA grad, not a Hermantown grad. So you always have to factor this into his "analysis". :mrgreen: "

Lee
_________________
Message Board arsonist since 2005
Egomaniac since 2006

Posted: Mon Jan 23, 2012 10:02 am
by mnmouth
blacklung wrote:
rainier wrote:
HawkeyPower wrote:As a Hermantown fan I could care less where HSHW or any of the other polls have Hermantown. The only thing that matters is where you finish after the last game you play. I think if Hermantown played STA at State and won in OT HSHW would still have STA ahead of Hermantown somehow. One persons opinion is just that, a opinion. Or entertainment to pass along time until we get to where the season really matters.
Bingo. Fun to debate about all of this during the season, and when playoffs start, the arguments will be settled on the ice.

As was said on here before, if Hermantown is undefeated going into the tourney, they will be the #1 seed.
I agree, but I think it is importrant for readers to know that the person that does the Class A rankings is a Sta grad.

Below is a Qoute from Lee that sums it up pretty well talking about the Marshall game that the teams have common opponent in.
Herm 5
Marshall 1

STA 4
Marshall 3 OT win.


Lee Quote:
"Not to mention that Hermantown's win was on the road at Mars Lakeview. STA's was at home. So the advantage slides even further in Hermantown's direction."

"Only problem is; HSHW is a STA grad, not a Hermantown grad. So you always have to factor this into his "analysis". :mrgreen: "

Lee
_________________
Message Board arsonist since 2005
Egomaniac since 2006
And the Hawks' win came later in the season, after Marshall had played a host of upper tier teams earlier, including STA.

Posted: Mon Jan 23, 2012 10:11 am
by blacklung
mnmouth wrote:
blacklung wrote:
rainier wrote: Bingo. Fun to debate about all of this during the season, and when playoffs start, the arguments will be settled on the ice.

As was said on here before, if Hermantown is undefeated going into the tourney, they will be the #1 seed.

I agree, but I think it is importrant for readers to know that the person that does the Class A rankings is a Sta grad.

Below is a Qoute from Lee that sums it up pretty well talking about the Marshall game that the teams have common opponent in.
Herm 5
Marshall 1

STA 4
Marshall 3 OT win.


Lee Quote:
"Not to mention that Hermantown's win was on the road at Mars Lakeview. STA's was at home. So the advantage slides even further in Hermantown's direction."

"Only problem is; HSHW is a STA grad, not a Hermantown grad. So you always have to factor this into his "analysis". :mrgreen: "

Lee
_________________
Message Board arsonist since 2005
Egomaniac since 2006
And the Hawks' win came later in the season, after Marshall had played a host of upper tier teams earlier, including STA.
If Herm allowed 3 Goals against Marshall and only won 4-3 in OT!,
HSHW would never let that go.

Posted: Mon Jan 23, 2012 10:12 am
by blacklung
New HUB Rankings:

Class 1A
January 23, 2012

Rank Team Prev.
1 Hermantown (18-0-0) 1
2 St. Thomas Ac. (11-4-0) 3
3 Breck (13-2-0) 2
4 Dul. Marshall (13-5-0) 4
5 Th. River Falls (12-3-1) 6
6 E. Grand Forks (12-5-0) 5
7 Totino-Grace (11-5-0) 7
8 St. Cloud Cath. (12-4-0) 8
9 Roch. Lourdes (12-5-0) 10
10 Mahtomedi (10-7-0) 9

Posted: Mon Jan 23, 2012 10:18 am
by HShockeywatcher
rainier wrote: Hermantown 5
Duluth Marshall 1

STA 4
Duluth Marshall 3 (OT)

That's the best evidence available to compare these two teams. What does it say to you?
Not sure about you, but this tells me that by Marshall's 14th game a good team was able to figure out that if you can control the one player who is involved in 59.5% (as of now) of the team's goals, they won't score much. This is also what people on here said who were at the game.

As for the other stuff you said:
-There is room between 7/8 and 13/14, a couple spots actually.

-One game doesn't make a season. They have played 18. Yes, if you only look at one game or two with the intention of drawing a particular conclusion, then it is easy to find it.

-Okay, so the DM/STA that happened months ago and was St Thomas' first game of the season is the "best evidence available" while Breck's first game of the season is not?

-A couple years ago, Morris/Benson was undefeated for a long time and no one had them ranked anywhere. 3 years ago when Little Falls got the #1 seed people on here were saying they didn't deserve it because of their schedule. They ended up the #5 Class A team in PageStat that year despite having only one loss; the loss was to the state champs.
So now we have a team that has a weaker schedule than others but the opposite logic is applied.


My opinion, which happens to be the same as both of the computer rankings, is that based on the final scores of the games these teams have been in, St Thomas has played the best through the season.

I try to be as consistent as I can week after week in the things I look for with teams and their schedule. I started the season with someone else's rankings and was accused of being a homer then. If you see something I am being inconsistent in, let me know, it is my hope not to be.

The biggest things I look at are/always have been who you play, ratio of goals scored, GA, GF and when you are behind. I rarely use shots to say much, aside from getting an idea of what happened and I also rarely look at margin of victory.

Those are my opinion of what is important to look at. Changing that up or using what I have seen in games I have watched, by definition, introduces bias.

Posted: Mon Jan 23, 2012 10:27 am
by elliott70
blacklung wrote:
rainier wrote:
HawkeyPower wrote:As a Hermantown fan I could care less where HSHW or any of the other polls have Hermantown. The only thing that matters is where you finish after the last game you play. I think if Hermantown played STA at State and won in OT HSHW would still have STA ahead of Hermantown somehow. One persons opinion is just that, a opinion. Or entertainment to pass along time until we get to where the season really matters.
Bingo. Fun to debate about all of this during the season, and when playoffs start, the arguments will be settled on the ice.

As was said on here before, if Hermantown is undefeated going into the tourney, they will be the #1 seed.
I agree, but I think it is importrant for readers to know that the person that does the Class A rankings is a Sta grad.

Below is a Qoute from Lee that sums it up pretty well talking about the Marshall game that the teams have common opponent in.
Herm 5
Marshall 1

STA 4
Marshall 3 OT win.

Lee Quote:
"Not to mention that Hermantown's win was on the road at Mars Lakeview. STA's was at home. So the advantage slides even further in Hermantown's direction."

"Only problem is; HSHW is a STA grad, not a Hermantown grad. So you always have to factor this into his "analysis". :mrgreen: "

Lee
_________________
Message Board arsonist since 2005
Egomaniac since 2006
It is not 'the' rankings, but 'his' rankings.

Posted: Mon Jan 23, 2012 10:33 am
by elliott70
Perhaps what we need is a top 10 or 20 concensus of the board.
Thsoe that want to, can vote for top 10 or whatever, and by Wednesday they are tallied and we have 'THE' top 10, 15 or so for our little group.

Watcher and Karl can continue to do what they like to do but then we have another ranking to complain, brag, fight over....

:lol:

Posted: Mon Jan 23, 2012 12:03 pm
by TTpuckster
elliott70 wrote:Perhaps what we need is a top 10 or 20 concensus of the board.
Thsoe that want to, can vote for top 10 or whatever, and by Wednesday they are tallied and we have 'THE' top 10, 15 or so for our little group.

Watcher and Karl can continue to do what they like to do but then we have another ranking to complain, brag, fight over....

:lol:
Naw, we have enough already for all of us bozos to complain, brag, fight over.

At least HSHW is doing some homework.
Most of the rest are running on emotion.
But still, this makes it entertaining...

Posted: Mon Jan 23, 2012 12:10 pm
by east hockey
HawkeyPower wrote:As a Hermantown fan I could care less where HSHW or any of the other polls have Hermantown. The only thing that matters is where you finish after the last game you play. I think if Hermantown played STA at State and won in OT HSHW would still have STA ahead of Hermantown somehow. One persons opinion is just that, a opinion. Or entertainment to pass along time until we get to where the season really matters.
You keep making sense like that, we might just have to invite you in as a moderator. Then they couldn't accuse us of being East-centric at the head of the table. They'd accuse us of being Duluth-area-centric, instead. :mrgreen: