buttend wrote:
My Guess
Championship Pool
North/South EP vs Wayzata
East /West Edina vs Minnetonka
Champ Game Wayzata vs Edina........Wayzata!
Consolation Pool
North /South Stillwater vs Prior Lake
East /West OMG vs Elk River
Consolation Final game Prior Lake vs OMG.............OMG!
That's a pretty good prognatstkication. I would think it plays out almost exactly as you lay it out.
Interesting draw. Two of the pools are stacked while 2 of the pools are extremely soft.
South Pool
No surprise that Eden Prairie didn't put any elite teams in the "North" Pool with the Eagles. Obviously, they are the host team and want a soft path to the final 4. Nothing wrong with that. Not sure any of the other 3 teams in that pool are even top 20 teams, although a case can be made for Stillwater.
The Ponies are a hard team to get your head around as they have laid some pretty stinky eggs, but they are certainly one of those teams you can't take lightly, as they have already beaten some pretty stiff competition, with wins over Sibley, Edina and Minnetonka.
The Stillwater vs Eden Prairie game will be played for all the marbels, as both teams *should* be 2-0 when they meet, with the pool at stake. Still, I'll take the Eagles by 2 goals in that game and expect Eden Prairie to win the pool in a 3-0 sweep.
North Pool
It also seems that Tournament organizers intentionally made a tough path for both Wayzata and Edina, as both of those Pools are stacked. Ihe "South" Pool, Wayzata will face Prior Lake, Farmington and White Bear in a pool where any one of those teams can win any one of those games.
Farmington is a team maybe just on the outside of the Top 10 bubble and looking in. MyHockey has them at 17th in the State right now and they have played some pretty decent hockey, including a close game with the Irish and skating to a tie with Prior Lake.
White Bear is a threat to win any game, as they are well coached and very physical. I'm not sure their physical style is well suited to a District 6 Tournament, however, as the District is notoriously soft and penalizes physical teams. It probably doesn't help the Bears that they have already lost to Wayzata 7-2. They are a great team, but I don't think this is a good draw for them. Not their weekend.
The dark horse here is Prior Lake. Not just for the Pool but for the Tournament. We will find out this weekend just how good this team is. There is a lot of quality people associated with this team and great kids, so it's easy to root for them and it's exciting to see them do well. Especially when you consider their top scorer was scooped by Shattuck. The Lakers have played 13 games straight now without a loss and that does include wins over Lakeville (North & South), Woodbury, Rosemount, Minnetonka and ties with Edina and Farmington. I just don't know if they are "ready" to lose yet. I don't think these kids know they are supposed to. The Tournament actually opens with Prior Lake vs wayzata at 7AM on Friday morning, and while my head says Wayzata should be a 1 goal favorite (are ties allowed in this Tourney?), my heart says - GO LAKERS GO!
Bottom line here is that Wayzata (1) , Prior Lake (4) and WBL (7) are all rated in the top 7 teams in the State, making this a real Pool of Death. I wouldn't be terribly suprised to see a 3 way tie for this pool with 2-1 records. Wayzata *should* have the inside track, but don't discount those Lakers ... or wake a sleeping Bear.
East Pool
This is the other Pool of Death. Edina (2), Andover (5) and OMG (6) are three teams ranked in the top 6 teams in the State. Let's face it, when we put these pools together it's always a good bit of fun to "stick it to" a rival, and if that's what EP has done here to the Hornets, then it's all in good rivalry fun. besides, I don't think the Hornets would have it any ohter way.
Here's the thing with Edina. While a lot of Bantam A coaches try to get too fancy and over-coach at this level, the secret to the sustained success of the Cake-eaters (besides the bottomless money pit for development), is the golden rule of KISS (Keep It Simple Stupid) and nobody does it better than the Bugs. These kids are doing basically the same thing they have been doing since they were Squirts and still nobody can stop them. They put an emphasis on individual skill development and they keep team tactics very very simple but they focus on the MASTERY of those simple things and they make it look easy. That strategy pays off especially in events like this when the stakes SEEM high, but the game is always the same for the Hornets no matter who they are playing.
Andover has quietly strung together 8 straight victories, including nice wins recently over Woodbury and Stillwater. This has certainly raised their stock in the polls and has them top 5 entering this event, however, the defection of a top player to High School has been untimely and should have the Huskies playing for pride this weekend instead of challenging for the Tournament Title. It's baptism by fire for the Huskies, as they drop the puck on this Tourney against the Hornets before matching up with a finally-healthy OMG squad. They could be facing off Saturday afternoon with Lakevill in a battle of winless teams.
OMG has done everything this season so far except beat an elite team. While their resume is impressive enough overall at 8-5-2 with a +/- of +28, they are a winless 0-5-1 and -10 against the top 7 teams in the State. Considering 3 of the 4 teams in this Pool are Top 6 teams, it's a real cause for concern. They should cruise in game 1 and they *should* get their first win over a top 5 team when they play Andover on Saturday (I give them a VERY small edge), but in a battle of undefeated teams Saturday afternoon, I don't give this team much of a chance. They *seem* to have an inferiority complex when it comes to elite competition and have shown a tendancy to implode, but the reality is, if you watch this team you will see they actually "roll lines" like a mite team does, with a fair play policy of equal ice. I'm not sure they have the depth to operate like that against top teams, which has resulted in zero success. yet they get away with rolling lines against weaker competition, as everybody joins the party and puts points on the board. It keeps players and parents happy and they will win just fine with that strategy in District 3 league play. However, that strategy will not work against elite teams in an elite Tournament and they will hit a wall against Edina (again) and possibly Andover.
Lakeville North just got a tough draw. They are currently ranked 20th in the State and would have challenged for 2nd place in the North Pool and even challenged for 1st place in the West Pool, but in this Pool I don't see any wiggle room. They have only played 2 games against Top 10 teams to date and lost both bbadly enough, getting outscored 3-11. Their best chance of success here is to catch an Andover team napping on Saturday afternoon, but I can't see a serious challenge from Lakeville against OMG or Edina.
Bottom line here is this Pool, stacked as it is, is still taylor made for Hornets success. Not that they need it, but they get the additional protection of District 6 refs, just in case teams like Andover or OMG have a physical game plan. Trust me - you don't want to spend time in the box against these guys. Edina should beat OMG, (I would guess rather convincingly) on Saturday and advance to the final 4, making OMG a co-favorite (along with South Pool #2) to compete in the Consolation Championship.
West Pool
This is an interesting pool, because 1 month ago you might have looked at this Pool and thought it was stacked. At the time, conventional wisdom had Elk River as a top 3 team, Minnetonka was an up and coming Top 10 competitor and Rochester (I am assuming this is Rochester Red) was 5th ranked 2 years ago with these kids as Pee Wee A's. Of course, it is only Thanksgiving and any/all 3 of those teams may still be late blooming Top 5 teams, but from the body of work so far this season, Minnetonka is 15th, Elk River is 16th and neither Monticello (0-1) or Rochester Red (1-2) would make the Top 50.
An earlier poster wondered on this board why a top team wasn't put in this pool, but you have to remember that these brackets weren't made last night or even last week. When they were made, both Minnetonka and Elk River were being talked about as State Championship contenders, and don't write them off either - as either or both certainly hjave the potential to win this Tournament and the State Title.
I would imagine the battle for this Pool really revolves around the Minnetonka/Elk River game on Saturday morning, with the winner facing Edina in the Championship Bracket and the loser facing OMG in the Consolation Bracket. These two teams are REALLY evenly matched, but they have played once already this season with Minnetonka securing a 3-2 decision.
Championship Bracket
I am sure at least one of the upsets will come through, the most likely being that Elk River beats Minnetonka (not much of an upset reallY), or Prior Lake beats Wayzata. Less likely but also possible that OMG beats Edina or Stillwater beats Eden Prairie. I think we will see at least one of those upsets occuring.
Other than that, predictably, I agree exactly with buttend on the matchups with slightly different outcomes.
- Eden Prairie v Wayzata - (Winner Wayzata)
- Edina v Minnetonka - (Winner Edina)
- Championship Game Edina vs Wayzata - (Winner Edina)
- Third Place Edsen Prairie v Minnetonka - (Winner Eden Prairie)
Consolation Bracket
- Stillwater v Prior Lake (Winner Prior Lake)
- OMG v Elk River (Winner OMG)
- Consolation Final OMG vs Prior Lake (Winner Prior Lake)
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Anyways, good luck to all the teams and players. Wish I was there to see it!
Sorry for the long post
