AA Rankings for 12/26/10
Posted: Sun Dec 26, 2010 10:47 am
I hope my readers had a Merry Christmas; we’re now on to the holiday tournaments, another great part of this season that have a tendency to upend rankings and separate many of the contenders from the pretenders.
Instead of listing all of the possible options for future games, I will only make note of which tournament each team is participating in, then preview each tournament after the rankings. This would normally be a section-by-section rundown week, but I will delay that until next week, when we’ll know a lot more.
1. Wayzata (9-0)
-The margins in their recent games definitely do not suggest they are invincible, but it’s hard to argue with an undefeated team that’s beaten #2 and #3. Now they’re off to St. Louis Park, where they should waltz through the first two rounds before taking on a very good 6AA opponent in the tournament final. With their schedule, there’s no way they go undefeated; the question then becomes one of how far they drop when they do lose.
This week: St. Louis Park Tournament
2. Duluth East (6-1)
-Another convincing performance pushes the Hounds even higher. Of course, they have an unfortunate tradition of getting Karl excited through most of December, then crashing in the Schwan Cup, so we come to the moment of truth. If they can put together a strong showing with the opponents they have to go through, there’s no doubt they belong up here--the two teams they’ll likely have to beat to get to the final are probably the only two in the state that have more depth than them.
This week: Schwan Cup Gold
3. Edina (5-2)
-Did nothing this past week, but slide up by virtue of Eden Prairie’s loss. The first-round tourney matchup with Duluth East should be one of the highlights of the week; it’s unfortunate the loser will be relegated to the consolation bracket. We’ll see if they can build on that win over Eden Prairie, or if they revert to some of the bad habits that cost them earlier in the season.
This week: Schwan Cup Gold
4. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (6-0)
-I’m second-guessing myself here; I know I had them at #2 last week, and that they remain undefeated. The Maple Grove win was good-but-not-great, and after watching them I’m just not convinced they’re better than East or Edina. Sheer logic based on who beat who might say they belong higher, but these are subjective rankings, and I’m allowed to throw in my honest opinion. Of course, if they go out and win their holiday tournament, they’ll go shooting back up. They probably have the most to gain of anyone this next week, since their schedule gets very easy in the new year, and it’ll be their last chance to match up with 6AA foes to decide the section seeding.
This week: St. Louis Park Tournament
5. Eden Prairie (5-2)
-The Eagan loss stings, and starts to raise some questions about this team. Moreover, the schedule is very tough over the next few weeks, so if they don’t right the ship soon, things may start to snowball. This team has too much talent to let that happen, and need to prove it. Because of that, the Benilde game is huge for them, and also has big 6AA implications.
This week: St. Louis Park Tournament
6. Eagan (3-2-1)
-It looks a bit strange to put a team one spot behind the team they just beat, but as impressive as the EP win was, they still have a loss to Lakeville North on the record. It may have been fluky, but championship teams need to avoid silly potholes like that. Eagan seems capable of winning a state championship, but also capable of getting upset in the section semifinals--and that has to make me think twice. Unlike most of the teams around them, they do not have a difficult holiday tourney, so they should just strengthen that record and be able to prep for their huge game with Apple Valley the following week.
This week: South St. Paul Premier Tournament
7. Burnsville (4-1-1)
-Piling up the goals in wins over mid-to-lower level SSC teams. There are a couple teams that could give them a run in the Schwan Cup Silver, but I think they’re in good position to win it. If there’s a worry, it’s that they seem to be giving up a lot of goals for a team that’s supposed to rely on its strong goaltending. We’ll see if that comes back to haunt them.
This week: Schwan Cup Silver
8. Hill-Murray (5-2)
-Finally, the Pioneers wake up as they shut down White Bear Lake to extend their streak in the rivalry. Despite the ranking, I think they have decent odds at winning the Schwan Cup, especially since they drew an easier first-round opponent in Breck. There’s too much talent on this team for them to continue to muddle around down here.
This week: Schwan Cup Gold
9. Grand Rapids (8-1)
-As I mentioned last week, they’re hard to rank properly; they dropped 2 spots this week despite an impressive win over Brainerd. Such is life with a weak schedule--they just need to plug along and keep on piling up the big wins, as other teams around them will inevitably drop a few. Have an easier holiday tournament, so anything short of three wins will be a disappointment.
This week: Perpich North-South Challenge
10. Apple Valley (7-2)
-We might call them AA’s forgotten team right now, as things have gone more or less as predicted. Their holiday tournament was last week against a bunch of unknowns from North Dakota; lacking a post-Christmas tournament of their own, they’ll just be watching what’s going on around them for a few days. They do play a decent section opponent, East Ridge, this week, but their focus now has to be on the January 6th meeting with Eagan, which will be huge in deciding what direction the 3AA race goes.
This week: Thurs vs. East Ridge
11. Maple Grove (5-2-1)
-Gave Benilde a nice run, which is an encouraging sign; they seem capable of giving anyone in the state a close game, at the very least. They’re in an interesting position in St. Louis Park, as they’re a step behind the 6AA teams, but should beat anyone else. Their odds at a 3rd-place finish are pretty good.
This week: St. Louis Park Tournament
12. Blaine (5-0-2)
-Tied Minnetonka to remain undefeated, and they’re in the interesting position of being the highest-ranked AA team on their side of the Schwan Cup Gold bracket. They’re not blowing anyone away, but things sure seem to be falling into place for the Bengals so far this season. We’ll see how long they can keep that act up.
This week: Schwan Cup Gold
13. Stillwater (4-1-1)
-Beating Minnetonka is a good way to get noticed, even if they had to scrape by. Now they’re in a good position to do some damage in the Silver division of the Schwan Cup, thanks to a forgiving first-round matchup. As with Blaine, things are lining up well for the Ponies right now, and they need to take advantage of this opportunity.
This week: Schwan Cup Silver
14. Minnetonka (4-2-1)
-It’s been a rough past two weeks for the Skippers; the growing pains are rearing their ugly heads right now. We’ll have to wait and see if their struggles carry over into their second game with St. Thomas; after the win the first time around, a loss would be a problem.
This week: Schwan Cup Gold
15. White Bear Lake (5-2)
-Two meetings with other top teams in the state, two three-goal losses. They need to prove they can do things against other good teams. Still, they are on the right side of the Schwan Cup bracket to prove they really can run with said good teams. With SEC opponents (who also happen to be in 4AA) on the rise, it’ll be worth watching a number of their important conference games.
This week: Schwan Cup Gold
Worth Watching
St. Cloud Tech
-Slide out of the rankings through no fault of their own; like Rapids, they just need to keep on winning big.
Roseville
-Gave Wayzata a pretty good game, and the loss to Stillwater looks a little better now that the Ponies have edged into the rankings, but I’m not getting overly excited yet over a team whose best win was against Virginia.
Bemidji
-Still undefeated, but seeing the one good team they played and tied (Moorhead) get whipped by Duluth East isn’t encouraging.
Bloomington Jefferson
-The convincing win over Centennial was a big step in the right direction. We’ll see if they can carry that success over in St. Louis Park.
Lakeville South
-Have spent the past two weeks being the whipping boy for AA powers; now that they face somewhat less daunting opposition, we’ll get a chance to see what they’re made of.
Lakeville North
-The win over Mayo was a bit close for comfort, considering what other AA powers have done to Rochester teams this year. But they are still in good position in a weak section; their trip up north this weekend should tell us a lot more about their ability.
Now we visit all of the tournaments involving the top 30 or so teams in AA.
Schwan Cup Gold
Wed-Sat
14 Minnetonka
St. Thomas Academy
12 Blaine
15 White Bear Lake
Breck
8 Hill-Murray
2 Duluth East
3 Edina
-Once again, the Schwan Cup Gold is the deepest tourney in the state. Unfortunately the bracket is also not very balanced, with DE, Edina, and Hill all trapped in the same group. That does have some advantages, though, and by the end of the tourney we should be able to say who the best non-6AA team in the state is. The top half of the bracket, on the other hand, is wide open--there’s room for some important moves in the rankings there. I’m also curious to see how the A teams compete.
St. Louis Park Tournament
Tues-Thurs
Elk River
11 Maple Grove
4 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
5 Eden Prairie
Bloomington Jefferson
Moorhead
Centennial
1 Wayzata
-I see this as two tourneys within a tourney, as the three 6AA teams are in a league of their own. Wayzata has a pretty easy path to the final, while the winner of the EP-BSM game, though they may face a pretty good Maple Grove team, should also be playing in the late game on the tournament’s final day. Any other losses by those three teams will drop them in the rankings. Beyond the 6AA derby, we have some interesting matchups; this is Maple Grove’s opportunity to make something of a statement beyond the NWSC, and the other teams will be jockeying for a chance at being ranked. If I had to pick one of them to pull an upset, I’d go with Elk River.
Schwan Cup Silver
Wed-Sat
Rogers
13 Stillwater
Certin-Derham Hall
Lakeville South
7 Burnsville
Holy Angels
Blake
Roseville
-An interesting mix of teams. There are three SEC teams in this one; two have piled up nice records so far and are looking to make a move in the rankings, while the other needs to right a sinking ship. As the only elite team in the field, Burnsville has to be the heavy favorite, and conference rival Lakeville South has potential to make some waves (they jumped onto the map by demolishing CDH in this tourney last year). Blake is a pretty good A team, and Holy Angels is lurking there as a wild card as well.
Perpich North-South Challenge
Tues-Thurs
9 Grand Rapids
Hibbing
Virginia
Lakeville North
Mahtomedi
Spring Lake Park
-A fun little tournament idea here, as the three northern teams face off against each of the three southern teams. The Wednesday matchup between Grand Rapids and Lakeville North is the one that grabs my attention; LVN may be the second- or third-toughest AA opponent left on Rapids’ schedule. Should be a good week of hockey.
South St. Paul Premier Tournament
Mon-Wed
6 Eagan
North St. Paul
Hastings
Woodbury
Hopkins
St. Paul Johnson
Anoka
South St. Paul
-Eagan should roll in this one, as they did last year. I’m intrigued to see how Woodbury does, since they seem to be coming on as of late. The SSP-Anoka game could also be good.
Granite City Classic
Tues-Thurs
Little Falls
Prairie Centre
Mound-Westonka
St. Cloud Cathedral
Detroit Lakes
St. Cloud Apollo
Sauk Rapids-Rice
St. Cloud Tech
-This is St. Cloud Tech’s chance to showcase what it can do; there’s some adequate A competition, but I see Tech beating Little Falls in the final of this one, barring a large upset.
Roseau Classic
Tues-Thurs
Alexandria
Lake of the Woods
Mandan, ND
Roseau
-Roseau gets a nice little opportunity to beef up that record in this round robin, though Alexandria is okay, and LOW can steal a game with their goalie.
Heritage Classic
Tues-Thurs
Andover
Forest Lake
Buffalo
Rosemount
Bemidji
Cloquet
Duluth Central
New Prague
-Bemidji is the favorite in this Duluth tourney; the enigmatic Forest Lake and relative unknown Cloquet are in the picture. Duluth Central would be the sleeper pick.
Kiwanis Festival--AA Bracket
Tues-Thurs
Eastview
New Richmond, WI
Brainerd
Rochester John Marshall
Fargo South, ND
Rochester Century
Prior Lake
Rochester Mayo
-Some extreme fringe bubble teams here. The likely semifinal between Eastview and Brainerd is the most important game for our purposes. It’ll also be interesting to see if a Rochester team can distinguish itself; there have been encouraging signs after some ugly starts for those teams.
There you go--enjoy the tournaments, and get ready for some big shifts next week.
Instead of listing all of the possible options for future games, I will only make note of which tournament each team is participating in, then preview each tournament after the rankings. This would normally be a section-by-section rundown week, but I will delay that until next week, when we’ll know a lot more.
1. Wayzata (9-0)
-The margins in their recent games definitely do not suggest they are invincible, but it’s hard to argue with an undefeated team that’s beaten #2 and #3. Now they’re off to St. Louis Park, where they should waltz through the first two rounds before taking on a very good 6AA opponent in the tournament final. With their schedule, there’s no way they go undefeated; the question then becomes one of how far they drop when they do lose.
This week: St. Louis Park Tournament
2. Duluth East (6-1)
-Another convincing performance pushes the Hounds even higher. Of course, they have an unfortunate tradition of getting Karl excited through most of December, then crashing in the Schwan Cup, so we come to the moment of truth. If they can put together a strong showing with the opponents they have to go through, there’s no doubt they belong up here--the two teams they’ll likely have to beat to get to the final are probably the only two in the state that have more depth than them.
This week: Schwan Cup Gold
3. Edina (5-2)
-Did nothing this past week, but slide up by virtue of Eden Prairie’s loss. The first-round tourney matchup with Duluth East should be one of the highlights of the week; it’s unfortunate the loser will be relegated to the consolation bracket. We’ll see if they can build on that win over Eden Prairie, or if they revert to some of the bad habits that cost them earlier in the season.
This week: Schwan Cup Gold
4. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (6-0)
-I’m second-guessing myself here; I know I had them at #2 last week, and that they remain undefeated. The Maple Grove win was good-but-not-great, and after watching them I’m just not convinced they’re better than East or Edina. Sheer logic based on who beat who might say they belong higher, but these are subjective rankings, and I’m allowed to throw in my honest opinion. Of course, if they go out and win their holiday tournament, they’ll go shooting back up. They probably have the most to gain of anyone this next week, since their schedule gets very easy in the new year, and it’ll be their last chance to match up with 6AA foes to decide the section seeding.
This week: St. Louis Park Tournament
5. Eden Prairie (5-2)
-The Eagan loss stings, and starts to raise some questions about this team. Moreover, the schedule is very tough over the next few weeks, so if they don’t right the ship soon, things may start to snowball. This team has too much talent to let that happen, and need to prove it. Because of that, the Benilde game is huge for them, and also has big 6AA implications.
This week: St. Louis Park Tournament
6. Eagan (3-2-1)
-It looks a bit strange to put a team one spot behind the team they just beat, but as impressive as the EP win was, they still have a loss to Lakeville North on the record. It may have been fluky, but championship teams need to avoid silly potholes like that. Eagan seems capable of winning a state championship, but also capable of getting upset in the section semifinals--and that has to make me think twice. Unlike most of the teams around them, they do not have a difficult holiday tourney, so they should just strengthen that record and be able to prep for their huge game with Apple Valley the following week.
This week: South St. Paul Premier Tournament
7. Burnsville (4-1-1)
-Piling up the goals in wins over mid-to-lower level SSC teams. There are a couple teams that could give them a run in the Schwan Cup Silver, but I think they’re in good position to win it. If there’s a worry, it’s that they seem to be giving up a lot of goals for a team that’s supposed to rely on its strong goaltending. We’ll see if that comes back to haunt them.
This week: Schwan Cup Silver
8. Hill-Murray (5-2)
-Finally, the Pioneers wake up as they shut down White Bear Lake to extend their streak in the rivalry. Despite the ranking, I think they have decent odds at winning the Schwan Cup, especially since they drew an easier first-round opponent in Breck. There’s too much talent on this team for them to continue to muddle around down here.
This week: Schwan Cup Gold
9. Grand Rapids (8-1)
-As I mentioned last week, they’re hard to rank properly; they dropped 2 spots this week despite an impressive win over Brainerd. Such is life with a weak schedule--they just need to plug along and keep on piling up the big wins, as other teams around them will inevitably drop a few. Have an easier holiday tournament, so anything short of three wins will be a disappointment.
This week: Perpich North-South Challenge
10. Apple Valley (7-2)
-We might call them AA’s forgotten team right now, as things have gone more or less as predicted. Their holiday tournament was last week against a bunch of unknowns from North Dakota; lacking a post-Christmas tournament of their own, they’ll just be watching what’s going on around them for a few days. They do play a decent section opponent, East Ridge, this week, but their focus now has to be on the January 6th meeting with Eagan, which will be huge in deciding what direction the 3AA race goes.
This week: Thurs vs. East Ridge
11. Maple Grove (5-2-1)
-Gave Benilde a nice run, which is an encouraging sign; they seem capable of giving anyone in the state a close game, at the very least. They’re in an interesting position in St. Louis Park, as they’re a step behind the 6AA teams, but should beat anyone else. Their odds at a 3rd-place finish are pretty good.
This week: St. Louis Park Tournament
12. Blaine (5-0-2)
-Tied Minnetonka to remain undefeated, and they’re in the interesting position of being the highest-ranked AA team on their side of the Schwan Cup Gold bracket. They’re not blowing anyone away, but things sure seem to be falling into place for the Bengals so far this season. We’ll see how long they can keep that act up.
This week: Schwan Cup Gold
13. Stillwater (4-1-1)
-Beating Minnetonka is a good way to get noticed, even if they had to scrape by. Now they’re in a good position to do some damage in the Silver division of the Schwan Cup, thanks to a forgiving first-round matchup. As with Blaine, things are lining up well for the Ponies right now, and they need to take advantage of this opportunity.
This week: Schwan Cup Silver
14. Minnetonka (4-2-1)
-It’s been a rough past two weeks for the Skippers; the growing pains are rearing their ugly heads right now. We’ll have to wait and see if their struggles carry over into their second game with St. Thomas; after the win the first time around, a loss would be a problem.
This week: Schwan Cup Gold
15. White Bear Lake (5-2)
-Two meetings with other top teams in the state, two three-goal losses. They need to prove they can do things against other good teams. Still, they are on the right side of the Schwan Cup bracket to prove they really can run with said good teams. With SEC opponents (who also happen to be in 4AA) on the rise, it’ll be worth watching a number of their important conference games.
This week: Schwan Cup Gold
Worth Watching
St. Cloud Tech
-Slide out of the rankings through no fault of their own; like Rapids, they just need to keep on winning big.
Roseville
-Gave Wayzata a pretty good game, and the loss to Stillwater looks a little better now that the Ponies have edged into the rankings, but I’m not getting overly excited yet over a team whose best win was against Virginia.
Bemidji
-Still undefeated, but seeing the one good team they played and tied (Moorhead) get whipped by Duluth East isn’t encouraging.
Bloomington Jefferson
-The convincing win over Centennial was a big step in the right direction. We’ll see if they can carry that success over in St. Louis Park.
Lakeville South
-Have spent the past two weeks being the whipping boy for AA powers; now that they face somewhat less daunting opposition, we’ll get a chance to see what they’re made of.
Lakeville North
-The win over Mayo was a bit close for comfort, considering what other AA powers have done to Rochester teams this year. But they are still in good position in a weak section; their trip up north this weekend should tell us a lot more about their ability.
Now we visit all of the tournaments involving the top 30 or so teams in AA.
Schwan Cup Gold
Wed-Sat
14 Minnetonka
St. Thomas Academy
12 Blaine
15 White Bear Lake
Breck
8 Hill-Murray
2 Duluth East
3 Edina
-Once again, the Schwan Cup Gold is the deepest tourney in the state. Unfortunately the bracket is also not very balanced, with DE, Edina, and Hill all trapped in the same group. That does have some advantages, though, and by the end of the tourney we should be able to say who the best non-6AA team in the state is. The top half of the bracket, on the other hand, is wide open--there’s room for some important moves in the rankings there. I’m also curious to see how the A teams compete.
St. Louis Park Tournament
Tues-Thurs
Elk River
11 Maple Grove
4 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
5 Eden Prairie
Bloomington Jefferson
Moorhead
Centennial
1 Wayzata
-I see this as two tourneys within a tourney, as the three 6AA teams are in a league of their own. Wayzata has a pretty easy path to the final, while the winner of the EP-BSM game, though they may face a pretty good Maple Grove team, should also be playing in the late game on the tournament’s final day. Any other losses by those three teams will drop them in the rankings. Beyond the 6AA derby, we have some interesting matchups; this is Maple Grove’s opportunity to make something of a statement beyond the NWSC, and the other teams will be jockeying for a chance at being ranked. If I had to pick one of them to pull an upset, I’d go with Elk River.
Schwan Cup Silver
Wed-Sat
Rogers
13 Stillwater
Certin-Derham Hall
Lakeville South
7 Burnsville
Holy Angels
Blake
Roseville
-An interesting mix of teams. There are three SEC teams in this one; two have piled up nice records so far and are looking to make a move in the rankings, while the other needs to right a sinking ship. As the only elite team in the field, Burnsville has to be the heavy favorite, and conference rival Lakeville South has potential to make some waves (they jumped onto the map by demolishing CDH in this tourney last year). Blake is a pretty good A team, and Holy Angels is lurking there as a wild card as well.
Perpich North-South Challenge
Tues-Thurs
9 Grand Rapids
Hibbing
Virginia
Lakeville North
Mahtomedi
Spring Lake Park
-A fun little tournament idea here, as the three northern teams face off against each of the three southern teams. The Wednesday matchup between Grand Rapids and Lakeville North is the one that grabs my attention; LVN may be the second- or third-toughest AA opponent left on Rapids’ schedule. Should be a good week of hockey.
South St. Paul Premier Tournament
Mon-Wed
6 Eagan
North St. Paul
Hastings
Woodbury
Hopkins
St. Paul Johnson
Anoka
South St. Paul
-Eagan should roll in this one, as they did last year. I’m intrigued to see how Woodbury does, since they seem to be coming on as of late. The SSP-Anoka game could also be good.
Granite City Classic
Tues-Thurs
Little Falls
Prairie Centre
Mound-Westonka
St. Cloud Cathedral
Detroit Lakes
St. Cloud Apollo
Sauk Rapids-Rice
St. Cloud Tech
-This is St. Cloud Tech’s chance to showcase what it can do; there’s some adequate A competition, but I see Tech beating Little Falls in the final of this one, barring a large upset.
Roseau Classic
Tues-Thurs
Alexandria
Lake of the Woods
Mandan, ND
Roseau
-Roseau gets a nice little opportunity to beef up that record in this round robin, though Alexandria is okay, and LOW can steal a game with their goalie.
Heritage Classic
Tues-Thurs
Andover
Forest Lake
Buffalo
Rosemount
Bemidji
Cloquet
Duluth Central
New Prague
-Bemidji is the favorite in this Duluth tourney; the enigmatic Forest Lake and relative unknown Cloquet are in the picture. Duluth Central would be the sleeper pick.
Kiwanis Festival--AA Bracket
Tues-Thurs
Eastview
New Richmond, WI
Brainerd
Rochester John Marshall
Fargo South, ND
Rochester Century
Prior Lake
Rochester Mayo
-Some extreme fringe bubble teams here. The likely semifinal between Eastview and Brainerd is the most important game for our purposes. It’ll also be interesting to see if a Rochester team can distinguish itself; there have been encouraging signs after some ugly starts for those teams.
There you go--enjoy the tournaments, and get ready for some big shifts next week.