AA Preseason Rankings and Preview
Posted: Wed Nov 17, 2010 12:42 am
Welcome to the third season of my rankings. I begin, as has become the norm, with a few statements.
-First and foremost, I do this to generate healthy debate. They are offered in the spirit of fun, and with the hope that it contributes something to our understanding of MN HS hockey. Always try to keep that perspective.
-On a related note, I’ve been made a moderator on here since my last set of rankings, which means I now have a little more discretion as to what violates this “healthy spirit.” Please do not let this stop you from asking questions or giving your own opinion on what I’ve done. Personal attacks will, of course, be frowned upon.
-I also understand that I am in a somewhat delicate position as I act simultaneously as an unabashed fan of one of the better teams in the state and a ranker who tries to be objective. I’m very aware of this dilemma, and I do try very hard to not let it affect the rankings. As evidence that I can do this reasonably well, I stand by my rankings of East the past two years.
-As I’ve mentioned in the past, I’m not a huge believer in preseason rankings, but I do think they have value in teaching us what we over- and under-value heading into the year. Last year, for example, I underrated teams that had quality bantam crops coming in. So this year I’ve tried to adjust for that in a reasonable manner (but without over-compensating--these kids do have a lot to prove at the high school level). They are also a necessary starting basis for the first few weeks, when teams haven’t played many games. At the end of the year I’ll again look back at these and see where improvement can be made.
-An added note for the preseason rankings: they probably overvalue young teams that might struggle a bit at the beginning; I’m assuming these teams will put it together by March. We’ll see if that’s a smart strategy or not.
Weekly Sunday rankings will begin Sunday, December 5th. By then nearly all the teams will have played a few games; I don’t see much point in re-ranking before then. I may make some sort of revision if something unexpected happens (a last-minute defection to juniors, a major injury, etc.).
Now, here we go.
1. Edina
-The reigning state champions suffered no losses of serious magnitude and, with the incredible depth in the organization, simply do not have any weaknesses. The keys lie in keeping the machine running at a high level and making sure they utilize their depth, which has been an issue with Edina teams in the past. With no compelling reason to bump them from the top spot, they will stay here until someone gives me a reason to move them.
Week 1: Wayzata Turkey Trot--Fri 11/26 vs. Buffalo, Sat. 11/27 vs. #4 Wayzata or #9 Maple Grove
Week 2: Thurs 12/2 vs. #10 Burnsville, Sat 12/4 vs. #11 Eagan
2. Hill-Murray
-My #2 is another program in green simply gushing with talent. There are a few holes to fill on defense, but defense tends not to be a concern on Lechner-coached teams. They may not have quite as many experienced top-end players as Edina, but in a head-to-head matchup with the Hornets I like their chances. Hill has beefed up its schedule some, and two of its first three games will be among the more important for ranking purposes.
Week 1: Sat 11/27 vs. #10 Burnsville
Week 2: Tues 11/30 at Duluth Marshall, Sat 12/4 at #6 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
3. Eden Prairie
-With the Rau drama behind them, we can rest assured that we’ll get to see one of the most talented classes in recent memory make one last run at a title. The star power and the experience are there, but some pertinent questions remain--they need the players in the supporting cast to step up and share some of the load with the likes of Rau and Molenaar. If they can develop their lower lines enough to match the other top contenders, they’ll be the favorite for the state title. If they can’t, it’s doubtful they’ll even make it out of 6AA. They also move out of the old Lake and into the punishing new Lake, though they’ve kept most of the upper-level former Lake teams on their schedule, making for perhaps the toughest one I’ve ever seen. I’m usually a big advocate of strong schedules, but I do wonder if there’s a point at which a schedule becomes too difficult and demanding. We’ll see.
Week 1: Idle
Week 2: Thurs 12/2 vs. #8 Apple Valley, Sat 12/4 at #13 Bloomington Jefferson
4. Wayzata
-One could easily argue that this team has the most raw talent of any in the state; we shouldn’t forget their incredible regular season last year, despite how it ended. However, that title hasn’t been worth much in recent years, which makes me suspect we tend to overrate sheer star power. Wayzata doesn’t exactly have a history of stepping up on the biggest stage, either. Playing in the state’s toughest conference and section will again be a serious test; the schedule over the first few weeks is very demanding, so we may learn what they’re made of very quickly.
Week 1: Wayzata Turkey Trot--Fri 11/26 vs. #9 Maple Grove, Sat 11/27 vs. #1 Edina or Buffalo
Week 2: Tues 11/30 at Centennial, Sat 12/4 vs. #5 Duluth East
5. Duluth East
-Return a healthy portion of a team that improved markedly last season and enjoy the additions of numerous players from arguably the top bantam team in the state in 09-10. Their youth may be an issue, but it’s hard to argue with the depth and potential on hand. The schedule is a little weaker than usual, which gives the early game against Wayzata some added importance. Right now, I think they’re a little ways behind the top four.
Week 1: Idle
Week 2: Tues 11/30 vs. Cambridge-Isanti, Sat 12/4 at #4 Wayzata
6. Benilde-St. Margaret’s
-Last year’s very young team was exposed at times, but now that they’ve paid their dues, they may be ready for a run. Their front line talent is as good as anyone’s, but depth may be an issue against other elite teams. The December schedule is considerably harder than the rest of the year; the second game (against Hill-Murray) may prove an important bellwether. If enough goes right they have a chance to be the most complete team in 6AA, which is saying something.
Week 1: Idle
Week 2: Tues 11/30 vs. St. Cloud Tech, Sat 12/4 vs. #2 Hill-Murray
7. Minnetonka
-Last year’s runners-up look to pull an Edina: with the vaunted stars of the Class of 2010 now gone, Tonka will have to rely on its depth and experience. The program returns a number of talented forwards should be deep enough to prevent any serious drop-off, though they will definitely take their lumps this year. If the defense solidifies by the end of the regular season, look out. They start with a couple of northern teams at home; the schedule gets harder as the year goes on.
Week 1: Idle
Week 2: Fri 12/3 vs. Hibbing, Sat 12/4 vs. #12 Roseau
8. Apple Valley
-AV has generated a lot of hype thanks to its spectacular 1-2 punch, but I’m not ready to lock this team into the elite quite yet. Recent state champions have shown that depth tends to win out over star power, and we also should remember that this team lost 13 games last season, some of them by ugly margins. All that said, this is not a 2-man show; there are some good supporting players, and they should certainly be the favorite in the newly created South Suburban. They start their season off with a pair of huge road games against the traditional powers of the former Lake conference.
Week 1: Idle
Week 2: Tues 11/30 at #13 Bloomington Jefferson, Thurs 12/2 at #3 Eden Prairie
9. Maple Grove
-With a power vacuum in their section and conference, this is the year for Maple Grove to step up and establish themselves as a force in MN HS hockey. While they may not boast any widely recognized superstars yet, they have so many impressive individual resumes that they can’t be considered underdogs anymore. The Wayzata Turkey Trot will be a major early challenge before they slide into the NWSC schedule.
Week 1: Wayzata Turkey Trot--Fri 11/26 vs. #4 Wayzata, Sat 11/27 vs. #1 Edina or Buffalo
Week 2: Thurs 12/2 vs. Anoka, Sat 12/4 at Andover
10. Burnsville
-Played as well as any team down the stretch last year and return their star goalie Bodhi Enghum. There are no huge standouts in front of him, but there are definitely more than enough capable players. The early schedule is brutal--we’ll get a very good idea of what they’re made of in their first two games.
Week 1: Sat 11/27 at #2 Hill-Murray
Week 2: Thurs 12/2 at #1 Edina
11. Eagan
-Burst onto the scene with a strong season last year, and most of the corps that led the charge is back. They’ve beefed up the non-conference schedule some with the addition of Edina and Minnetonka early in the year, which should help them overcome some of last year’s schedule concerns.
Week 1: Idle
Week 2: Thurs 12/2 vs. Prior Lake, Sat 12/4 at #1 Edina
12. Roseau
-A bit thin, but like most Roseau teams they have a couple of stars who should be able to carry the load and lead them through a relatively weak section. The important storyline here is the much-improved schedule; the Rams took some big steps in scheduling a bunch of major opponents. We’ll get a much better idea of where they truly stand than we normally do, and hopefully they’ll get more out of it than they would have beating up on, say, North Dakota teams.
Week 1: Idle
Week 2: Tues 11/30 vs. Thief River Falls, Fri 12/3 at Blaine, Sat 12/4 at #7 Minnetonka
13. Bloomington Jefferson
-Lost the core of the group that carried them the past few years, but the pipeline remains relatively strong, so they could sneak up on some people with a good year. That said, if they couldn’t get by Edina last year, I don’t see how they could this year. Nothing comes easy in the early going; the opener against Apple Valley has huge SSC implications, and though they’re no longer in a conference with Eden Prairie, I doubt the intensity will be in any way diminished.
Week 1: Idle
Week 2: Tues 11/30 vs. #8 Apple Valley, Sat 12/4 vs. #3 Eden Prairie
14. White Bear Lake
-Like their primary opponents for the SEC crown, the Bears revolve around two top forwards. However, they’ll need a lot more than flashiness out of a pair of individuals to get past Hill in 4AA. Need to regroup and find some discipline; recent history both on and off the ice has been too tumultuous for a team trying to exorcise a lot of demons. No significant challenges in their first two games.
Week 1: Sat 11/27 vs. Rochester Century
Week 2: Tues 11/30 vs. Hastings
15. Lakeville South
-As with WBL at #14 this might be a bit of a stretch, but I think it’s very hard to distinguish the teams in spots 14 through 18 right now--a lot of pretty good teams with a couple of star players, all with chances at decent seasons but not deep enough to really be in the state title conversation. The loss of Osterberg keeps LVS from being a serious threat, but there’s enough talent left to make them the 1AA favorite and a tough South Suburban opponent on any given night. Don’t start until the 9th of December, and the opening schedule is very tough.
Weeks 1 and 2: Idle
The Next Ten
Holy Angels
-Will certainly miss a number of the big players off last year’s team, but writing AHA off prematurely would be a mistake; there’s still a decent amount of talent flowing through the program, and they’ve got a couple of stars who should give them a chance at a few upsets. As usual, they do not start until late--their first game is December 16th.
Forest Lake
-A strong junior class has put them on the map and made them a force to be reckoned with in the SEC. Have a lot to prove against the real top-end teams, though, and the schedule does not offer many such opportunities. Very important 7AA game to start the year against Grand Rapids.
Cretin-Derham Hall
-Will rely on the same core that has carried them in past years, and in this year’s SEC that’s enough make them one of the co-favorites. Open the season with a string of good-but-not-great teams.
Blaine
-Lost just about everyone of consequence not named Brodzinski from last year’s team, which wasn’t all that deep to begin with. However, this is one of the stronger programs out there, and they’ve got enough to still be relevant in 5AA and the NWSC. Interesting first test as they invite Roseau down to the north metro.
Moorhead
-Lost a lot of the core that drove the 2009 title run, and now find themselves in a transition phase; there are a lot of bodies to replace, but there are also a few very talented players who should be ready to step up and carry the tradition forward. If they grow up quickly enough they can certainly take 8AA back. Schedule is pretty difficult, but they don’t play any metro teams before their holiday tournament.
Centennial
-Lost a lot to graduation, but like their rival Blaine, they are a deep program that should be able to remain near the top of the NWSC. Face a tough opening challenge against Wayzata. This feels a bit low, but I’ll go with it for now.
Grand Rapids
-Should start to make some noise on the state scene again after a 3-year hiatus. They have a strong goalie and an interesting mix of decent returning players and a rising Bantams, but it’s hard to tell at this point just how much of the gap they’ll be able to close. Might have the most important first week of anyone, with two road games with major 7AA seeding implications.
Elk River
-Return an excellent goalie, but very few skaters; will have to grow up in a hurry to maintain relevance in the NWSC and 7AA. Should be able to pile up a few season-opening wins.
Stillwater
-Look to remain competitive as usual in the SEC, but we’re still waiting for this program to take another step forward. Big first game at Cretin.
Brainerd
-Return the offensive stars of last year’s surprise run, but they’ll need to shore up the defense to have another shot at Moorhead and Roseau in 7AA. Should be able to rack up a gaudy record again thanks to a weak schedule.
And the section-by-section run-through, with possible contenders listed:
1AA
15 Lakeville South
Lakeville North
-The weakest of the AA sections was sapped by a large number of defections this offseason. The Lakevilles have deep enough programs that they should be able to be decent teams in the South Suburban. The outlook for the teams further south remains grim, though.
2AA
1 Edina
10 Burnsville
13 Bloom. Jefferson
(16) Holy Angels
-The defending champs once again sit atop the section, and the road to State might actually be the easiest they’ve faced in recent memory. That hardly means it’s a pushover--Burnsville is still a very good team, and Jefferson and AHA could pull it off with some luck--but there is a clear number one.
3AA
8 Apple Valley
11 Eagan
(18) Cretin-Derham Hall
East Ridge
-AV established themselves as the frontrunners for this year and (assuming no defections) the foreseeable future with their section crown last year. Eagan is talented enough to give them a good run--the two went to OT in the section semis last year--and Cretin will probably be in the mix too, but this section is AV’s to lose. In general it’s a section on the rise, with quite a bit of young talent; we’ll also see how the Woodbury school split continues to shake out.
4AA
2 Hill-Murray
14 White Bear Lake
(24) Stillwater
-No reason not to expect more of the same at this point. WBL has a decent senior class, but has a lot to prove if it wants to narrow the gulf between Hill and the rest of the section, and Stillwater also has some work to do before they move up to the next level.
5AA
9 Maple Grove
(19) Blaine
(21) Centennial
-After being one of the state’s better sections for a while, 5AA looks to be in for a drop-off as the traditional two powers regroup and a new one rises to center stage. On paper it’s Maple Grove’s to lose, though Blaine has some inertia on it side. And who knows, maybe the enigmatic Centennial, which always seems to be a contender but still has only 1 state tourney trip, will put things together now that the expectations have shifted.
6AA
3 Eden Prairie
4 Wayzata
6 Benilde
7 Minnetonka
-Once again the state’s most loaded section with four top-ten teams. Unlike a number of the other section races, this one looks pretty open and has plenty of intrigue. The three west metro publics will all play each other at least twice this year, and now that 3 of the 4 are in the St. Louis Park holiday tourney there’s a chance there will be a lot of games between them. Time will tell if this helps sort them out or only makes the section even more of a mess.
7AA
5 Duluth East
(17) Forest Lake
(22) Grand Rapids
(23) Elk River
Cloquet
-Another section with a large gap (on paper) between the top team and those chasing it. Elk River has a strong goalie but must replace nearly all of its scoring punch; Forest Lake has one talented class in need of some support, and though Grand Rapids and Cloquet will be on the rise again, they will still be very raw. There is an awful lot of young talent here; whichever team gets the most out of its sophomores will be in a very good position.
8AA
12 Roseau
(20) Moorhead
(25) Brainerd
St. Cloud Tech
-Roseau is the favorite, but Moorhead has some talented players and will be right there as usual should the Rams falter; the results in recent years tell us the regular season meetings between these two don’t really matter when the playoffs roll around. Brainerd returns some quality offensive parts but almost no defense from last year’s surprise run, and St. Cloud Tech is a decent sleeper pick.
Other Storylines and Closing Comments
-It’s been a while since we’ve had anything we could call a “dynasty” at the statewide level. But with the last three state champions as the preseason top 3, we have a decent chance of seeing a team lay some sort of claim to that title at the end of the year.
-The new Lake Conference. The biggest trend in the past few years has been increasing domination by the giant west metro programs, and now four of the biggest are united in one conference. This means we’re probably going to see more losses out of the top teams than in the past, making for some ranking headaches and psychological questions about the toll of such a schedule.
There are a lot of great games over the first couple weeks--more than usual, I’d guess--so head out and enjoy some.
I will be traveling extensively over the next week and a half but will do my best to check in from time to time so I can respond to questions and comments.
-First and foremost, I do this to generate healthy debate. They are offered in the spirit of fun, and with the hope that it contributes something to our understanding of MN HS hockey. Always try to keep that perspective.
-On a related note, I’ve been made a moderator on here since my last set of rankings, which means I now have a little more discretion as to what violates this “healthy spirit.” Please do not let this stop you from asking questions or giving your own opinion on what I’ve done. Personal attacks will, of course, be frowned upon.
-I also understand that I am in a somewhat delicate position as I act simultaneously as an unabashed fan of one of the better teams in the state and a ranker who tries to be objective. I’m very aware of this dilemma, and I do try very hard to not let it affect the rankings. As evidence that I can do this reasonably well, I stand by my rankings of East the past two years.
-As I’ve mentioned in the past, I’m not a huge believer in preseason rankings, but I do think they have value in teaching us what we over- and under-value heading into the year. Last year, for example, I underrated teams that had quality bantam crops coming in. So this year I’ve tried to adjust for that in a reasonable manner (but without over-compensating--these kids do have a lot to prove at the high school level). They are also a necessary starting basis for the first few weeks, when teams haven’t played many games. At the end of the year I’ll again look back at these and see where improvement can be made.
-An added note for the preseason rankings: they probably overvalue young teams that might struggle a bit at the beginning; I’m assuming these teams will put it together by March. We’ll see if that’s a smart strategy or not.
Weekly Sunday rankings will begin Sunday, December 5th. By then nearly all the teams will have played a few games; I don’t see much point in re-ranking before then. I may make some sort of revision if something unexpected happens (a last-minute defection to juniors, a major injury, etc.).
Now, here we go.
1. Edina
-The reigning state champions suffered no losses of serious magnitude and, with the incredible depth in the organization, simply do not have any weaknesses. The keys lie in keeping the machine running at a high level and making sure they utilize their depth, which has been an issue with Edina teams in the past. With no compelling reason to bump them from the top spot, they will stay here until someone gives me a reason to move them.
Week 1: Wayzata Turkey Trot--Fri 11/26 vs. Buffalo, Sat. 11/27 vs. #4 Wayzata or #9 Maple Grove
Week 2: Thurs 12/2 vs. #10 Burnsville, Sat 12/4 vs. #11 Eagan
2. Hill-Murray
-My #2 is another program in green simply gushing with talent. There are a few holes to fill on defense, but defense tends not to be a concern on Lechner-coached teams. They may not have quite as many experienced top-end players as Edina, but in a head-to-head matchup with the Hornets I like their chances. Hill has beefed up its schedule some, and two of its first three games will be among the more important for ranking purposes.
Week 1: Sat 11/27 vs. #10 Burnsville
Week 2: Tues 11/30 at Duluth Marshall, Sat 12/4 at #6 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
3. Eden Prairie
-With the Rau drama behind them, we can rest assured that we’ll get to see one of the most talented classes in recent memory make one last run at a title. The star power and the experience are there, but some pertinent questions remain--they need the players in the supporting cast to step up and share some of the load with the likes of Rau and Molenaar. If they can develop their lower lines enough to match the other top contenders, they’ll be the favorite for the state title. If they can’t, it’s doubtful they’ll even make it out of 6AA. They also move out of the old Lake and into the punishing new Lake, though they’ve kept most of the upper-level former Lake teams on their schedule, making for perhaps the toughest one I’ve ever seen. I’m usually a big advocate of strong schedules, but I do wonder if there’s a point at which a schedule becomes too difficult and demanding. We’ll see.
Week 1: Idle
Week 2: Thurs 12/2 vs. #8 Apple Valley, Sat 12/4 at #13 Bloomington Jefferson
4. Wayzata
-One could easily argue that this team has the most raw talent of any in the state; we shouldn’t forget their incredible regular season last year, despite how it ended. However, that title hasn’t been worth much in recent years, which makes me suspect we tend to overrate sheer star power. Wayzata doesn’t exactly have a history of stepping up on the biggest stage, either. Playing in the state’s toughest conference and section will again be a serious test; the schedule over the first few weeks is very demanding, so we may learn what they’re made of very quickly.
Week 1: Wayzata Turkey Trot--Fri 11/26 vs. #9 Maple Grove, Sat 11/27 vs. #1 Edina or Buffalo
Week 2: Tues 11/30 at Centennial, Sat 12/4 vs. #5 Duluth East
5. Duluth East
-Return a healthy portion of a team that improved markedly last season and enjoy the additions of numerous players from arguably the top bantam team in the state in 09-10. Their youth may be an issue, but it’s hard to argue with the depth and potential on hand. The schedule is a little weaker than usual, which gives the early game against Wayzata some added importance. Right now, I think they’re a little ways behind the top four.
Week 1: Idle
Week 2: Tues 11/30 vs. Cambridge-Isanti, Sat 12/4 at #4 Wayzata
6. Benilde-St. Margaret’s
-Last year’s very young team was exposed at times, but now that they’ve paid their dues, they may be ready for a run. Their front line talent is as good as anyone’s, but depth may be an issue against other elite teams. The December schedule is considerably harder than the rest of the year; the second game (against Hill-Murray) may prove an important bellwether. If enough goes right they have a chance to be the most complete team in 6AA, which is saying something.
Week 1: Idle
Week 2: Tues 11/30 vs. St. Cloud Tech, Sat 12/4 vs. #2 Hill-Murray
7. Minnetonka
-Last year’s runners-up look to pull an Edina: with the vaunted stars of the Class of 2010 now gone, Tonka will have to rely on its depth and experience. The program returns a number of talented forwards should be deep enough to prevent any serious drop-off, though they will definitely take their lumps this year. If the defense solidifies by the end of the regular season, look out. They start with a couple of northern teams at home; the schedule gets harder as the year goes on.
Week 1: Idle
Week 2: Fri 12/3 vs. Hibbing, Sat 12/4 vs. #12 Roseau
8. Apple Valley
-AV has generated a lot of hype thanks to its spectacular 1-2 punch, but I’m not ready to lock this team into the elite quite yet. Recent state champions have shown that depth tends to win out over star power, and we also should remember that this team lost 13 games last season, some of them by ugly margins. All that said, this is not a 2-man show; there are some good supporting players, and they should certainly be the favorite in the newly created South Suburban. They start their season off with a pair of huge road games against the traditional powers of the former Lake conference.
Week 1: Idle
Week 2: Tues 11/30 at #13 Bloomington Jefferson, Thurs 12/2 at #3 Eden Prairie
9. Maple Grove
-With a power vacuum in their section and conference, this is the year for Maple Grove to step up and establish themselves as a force in MN HS hockey. While they may not boast any widely recognized superstars yet, they have so many impressive individual resumes that they can’t be considered underdogs anymore. The Wayzata Turkey Trot will be a major early challenge before they slide into the NWSC schedule.
Week 1: Wayzata Turkey Trot--Fri 11/26 vs. #4 Wayzata, Sat 11/27 vs. #1 Edina or Buffalo
Week 2: Thurs 12/2 vs. Anoka, Sat 12/4 at Andover
10. Burnsville
-Played as well as any team down the stretch last year and return their star goalie Bodhi Enghum. There are no huge standouts in front of him, but there are definitely more than enough capable players. The early schedule is brutal--we’ll get a very good idea of what they’re made of in their first two games.
Week 1: Sat 11/27 at #2 Hill-Murray
Week 2: Thurs 12/2 at #1 Edina
11. Eagan
-Burst onto the scene with a strong season last year, and most of the corps that led the charge is back. They’ve beefed up the non-conference schedule some with the addition of Edina and Minnetonka early in the year, which should help them overcome some of last year’s schedule concerns.
Week 1: Idle
Week 2: Thurs 12/2 vs. Prior Lake, Sat 12/4 at #1 Edina
12. Roseau
-A bit thin, but like most Roseau teams they have a couple of stars who should be able to carry the load and lead them through a relatively weak section. The important storyline here is the much-improved schedule; the Rams took some big steps in scheduling a bunch of major opponents. We’ll get a much better idea of where they truly stand than we normally do, and hopefully they’ll get more out of it than they would have beating up on, say, North Dakota teams.
Week 1: Idle
Week 2: Tues 11/30 vs. Thief River Falls, Fri 12/3 at Blaine, Sat 12/4 at #7 Minnetonka
13. Bloomington Jefferson
-Lost the core of the group that carried them the past few years, but the pipeline remains relatively strong, so they could sneak up on some people with a good year. That said, if they couldn’t get by Edina last year, I don’t see how they could this year. Nothing comes easy in the early going; the opener against Apple Valley has huge SSC implications, and though they’re no longer in a conference with Eden Prairie, I doubt the intensity will be in any way diminished.
Week 1: Idle
Week 2: Tues 11/30 vs. #8 Apple Valley, Sat 12/4 vs. #3 Eden Prairie
14. White Bear Lake
-Like their primary opponents for the SEC crown, the Bears revolve around two top forwards. However, they’ll need a lot more than flashiness out of a pair of individuals to get past Hill in 4AA. Need to regroup and find some discipline; recent history both on and off the ice has been too tumultuous for a team trying to exorcise a lot of demons. No significant challenges in their first two games.
Week 1: Sat 11/27 vs. Rochester Century
Week 2: Tues 11/30 vs. Hastings
15. Lakeville South
-As with WBL at #14 this might be a bit of a stretch, but I think it’s very hard to distinguish the teams in spots 14 through 18 right now--a lot of pretty good teams with a couple of star players, all with chances at decent seasons but not deep enough to really be in the state title conversation. The loss of Osterberg keeps LVS from being a serious threat, but there’s enough talent left to make them the 1AA favorite and a tough South Suburban opponent on any given night. Don’t start until the 9th of December, and the opening schedule is very tough.
Weeks 1 and 2: Idle
The Next Ten
Holy Angels
-Will certainly miss a number of the big players off last year’s team, but writing AHA off prematurely would be a mistake; there’s still a decent amount of talent flowing through the program, and they’ve got a couple of stars who should give them a chance at a few upsets. As usual, they do not start until late--their first game is December 16th.
Forest Lake
-A strong junior class has put them on the map and made them a force to be reckoned with in the SEC. Have a lot to prove against the real top-end teams, though, and the schedule does not offer many such opportunities. Very important 7AA game to start the year against Grand Rapids.
Cretin-Derham Hall
-Will rely on the same core that has carried them in past years, and in this year’s SEC that’s enough make them one of the co-favorites. Open the season with a string of good-but-not-great teams.
Blaine
-Lost just about everyone of consequence not named Brodzinski from last year’s team, which wasn’t all that deep to begin with. However, this is one of the stronger programs out there, and they’ve got enough to still be relevant in 5AA and the NWSC. Interesting first test as they invite Roseau down to the north metro.
Moorhead
-Lost a lot of the core that drove the 2009 title run, and now find themselves in a transition phase; there are a lot of bodies to replace, but there are also a few very talented players who should be ready to step up and carry the tradition forward. If they grow up quickly enough they can certainly take 8AA back. Schedule is pretty difficult, but they don’t play any metro teams before their holiday tournament.
Centennial
-Lost a lot to graduation, but like their rival Blaine, they are a deep program that should be able to remain near the top of the NWSC. Face a tough opening challenge against Wayzata. This feels a bit low, but I’ll go with it for now.
Grand Rapids
-Should start to make some noise on the state scene again after a 3-year hiatus. They have a strong goalie and an interesting mix of decent returning players and a rising Bantams, but it’s hard to tell at this point just how much of the gap they’ll be able to close. Might have the most important first week of anyone, with two road games with major 7AA seeding implications.
Elk River
-Return an excellent goalie, but very few skaters; will have to grow up in a hurry to maintain relevance in the NWSC and 7AA. Should be able to pile up a few season-opening wins.
Stillwater
-Look to remain competitive as usual in the SEC, but we’re still waiting for this program to take another step forward. Big first game at Cretin.
Brainerd
-Return the offensive stars of last year’s surprise run, but they’ll need to shore up the defense to have another shot at Moorhead and Roseau in 7AA. Should be able to rack up a gaudy record again thanks to a weak schedule.
And the section-by-section run-through, with possible contenders listed:
1AA
15 Lakeville South
Lakeville North
-The weakest of the AA sections was sapped by a large number of defections this offseason. The Lakevilles have deep enough programs that they should be able to be decent teams in the South Suburban. The outlook for the teams further south remains grim, though.
2AA
1 Edina
10 Burnsville
13 Bloom. Jefferson
(16) Holy Angels
-The defending champs once again sit atop the section, and the road to State might actually be the easiest they’ve faced in recent memory. That hardly means it’s a pushover--Burnsville is still a very good team, and Jefferson and AHA could pull it off with some luck--but there is a clear number one.
3AA
8 Apple Valley
11 Eagan
(18) Cretin-Derham Hall
East Ridge
-AV established themselves as the frontrunners for this year and (assuming no defections) the foreseeable future with their section crown last year. Eagan is talented enough to give them a good run--the two went to OT in the section semis last year--and Cretin will probably be in the mix too, but this section is AV’s to lose. In general it’s a section on the rise, with quite a bit of young talent; we’ll also see how the Woodbury school split continues to shake out.
4AA
2 Hill-Murray
14 White Bear Lake
(24) Stillwater
-No reason not to expect more of the same at this point. WBL has a decent senior class, but has a lot to prove if it wants to narrow the gulf between Hill and the rest of the section, and Stillwater also has some work to do before they move up to the next level.
5AA
9 Maple Grove
(19) Blaine
(21) Centennial
-After being one of the state’s better sections for a while, 5AA looks to be in for a drop-off as the traditional two powers regroup and a new one rises to center stage. On paper it’s Maple Grove’s to lose, though Blaine has some inertia on it side. And who knows, maybe the enigmatic Centennial, which always seems to be a contender but still has only 1 state tourney trip, will put things together now that the expectations have shifted.
6AA
3 Eden Prairie
4 Wayzata
6 Benilde
7 Minnetonka
-Once again the state’s most loaded section with four top-ten teams. Unlike a number of the other section races, this one looks pretty open and has plenty of intrigue. The three west metro publics will all play each other at least twice this year, and now that 3 of the 4 are in the St. Louis Park holiday tourney there’s a chance there will be a lot of games between them. Time will tell if this helps sort them out or only makes the section even more of a mess.
7AA
5 Duluth East
(17) Forest Lake
(22) Grand Rapids
(23) Elk River
Cloquet
-Another section with a large gap (on paper) between the top team and those chasing it. Elk River has a strong goalie but must replace nearly all of its scoring punch; Forest Lake has one talented class in need of some support, and though Grand Rapids and Cloquet will be on the rise again, they will still be very raw. There is an awful lot of young talent here; whichever team gets the most out of its sophomores will be in a very good position.
8AA
12 Roseau
(20) Moorhead
(25) Brainerd
St. Cloud Tech
-Roseau is the favorite, but Moorhead has some talented players and will be right there as usual should the Rams falter; the results in recent years tell us the regular season meetings between these two don’t really matter when the playoffs roll around. Brainerd returns some quality offensive parts but almost no defense from last year’s surprise run, and St. Cloud Tech is a decent sleeper pick.
Other Storylines and Closing Comments
-It’s been a while since we’ve had anything we could call a “dynasty” at the statewide level. But with the last three state champions as the preseason top 3, we have a decent chance of seeing a team lay some sort of claim to that title at the end of the year.
-The new Lake Conference. The biggest trend in the past few years has been increasing domination by the giant west metro programs, and now four of the biggest are united in one conference. This means we’re probably going to see more losses out of the top teams than in the past, making for some ranking headaches and psychological questions about the toll of such a schedule.
There are a lot of great games over the first couple weeks--more than usual, I’d guess--so head out and enjoy some.
I will be traveling extensively over the next week and a half but will do my best to check in from time to time so I can respond to questions and comments.
