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There are many different ways to "make it" to the big time. In outliers, it mentions a lot of things that one needs to make it big. I have just read snippets, but hard work and passion appear to be the underlying theme. We all have anecdotal evidence on what is the best way to develop the next great superstar. However, it would be interesting to find out how different kids did rise to the "top" in Minnesota hockey. One it would be interesting to know the story on is David Fisher. He is an 88 birth year kid that does not appear to be claimed by the Blades or MM, but he still ended up as Mr. Hockey, D1 hockey player, and NHL 1st round pick.

The writer (whose name escapes me at the moment) also talks about how much birth month greatly affects the odds of making it to the NHL. He only examines Canadiens, who go strictly by birth year in youth hockey, and concludes that one born in the first quarter of the year is twice as likely as someone born in the last quarter to be drafted into the NHL. Reason being is that being the older kid gives you an advantage phsically, simply because of the relative age difference, and thus allows you to be on the better teams with better coaching and ultimately more exposure to scouts.

A poster on here commented recently that here in Minnesota we have the best of both worlds in that kids with late birthdays get to have the advantage of being the older kids in association hockey (because of the summer cut off) while the ones with early birthdays get to have the advantage in AAA. The combo of the 2 may be part of the reason our state has produced so many NHLers recently. I think there are advantages to being the older kid and also advantages to being the younger kid playing against older competition. Our kids get the best of both worlds if they choose to take advantage.

I am guilty, nice to get some credit.....at any rate I too read Outliers, that is what I base my belief that we have the best of both worlds. At one time, shortly after reading Outliers I began watching player birth dates (NHL as well as NCAA). I would basicallt check the programs, I suggest you do the same. It turned out that Minnesota puts out almost an equal number of second 1/2 players as first 1/2 into elite level hockey.
I also noticed players from out east and other areas of the US had birth dates from the first half of the calendar year. Same was true of Canadiens and Euro's. Are they limiting their true potential?

I personally would not mind a structure that supported Major/Minor AAA age classicications across the board. I know there are some tourneys that do this, I am talking about nation wide support of second half of the year players all year. Where the Major are the older kids of the year and the Minor are the younger. I think you would see twice as much competitive hockey but a much higher rate of development because more kids would be involved.

I will leave it to you to develop your own conclusions. The age argument will never really be won, early birthdate parents will want more AAA because that is where their child enjoys the most success and late B-dates will enjoy Winter age policies for the same reason.

In the end, they both get their way for 1/2 the year. Meanwhile during the 1/2 of year they feel like their kid is wasting his/her time, the kid is probably having more fun deep down.

Hockey is the greatest game on earth and we are living in a community that puts its arms around the sport. Lucky on all counts. Let's just do everything we can to preserve it so more kids come to the sport. That is what will make hockey greater.

Yes, that was you (sorry, I was too lazy to look up the other posting and get your name).

Here is the breakdown by birth month of Minnesota born NHLer's born in 1970 or later:

JAN - 6
FEB - 5
MAR - 8
APR - 7
MAY - 5
JUN - 5
JUL - 10
AUG - 6
SEP - 3
OCT - 6
NOV - 5
DEC - 4

http://www.hockey-reference.com/friv/bi ... =&state=MN

That would be 36 born in the first half of the year and 34 in the second half.

Canadien National Junior Team
14 first half players
7 second half

Czech republic
11 1st half
8 second half

Fins
14 1st half
6 second half

Khaz
18 first half
2 second half

Latvia
17 first half
4 second half

Russia
14 first Half
6 second half

Slovakia
14 first half
6 second half

sweden
14 first half
7 second half

USA
15 First Half
4 Second Half

U of MN
17 First
9 Second

Wild
13 first half
12 second half

Detroit Red Wings
18 first half
12 second half

Capitals
14 second half
12 second half

Penguins
14 first
11 second

Black hawks
18
13

What does this mean? National development plans and youth development plans are skewed towards players that mature slightly sooner than players that have late B-dates?
Not likely. The more mature players get better coaching and more ice time earlier BECAUSE of their birthdate,size and maturity. Thus they advance sooner and continue to get better opportunities.
At NHL the numbers start to balance out.

No one can convince me that better athletes are born in the first 6 months of the year. No way. The system is missing talent because of the structure.

Had to share this. In Canada, Hockey is so important that they did a study to see if there were any interplanetary forces at play with regards to birth timing and elite level hockey players......ahhhhhh yeah.
And we thought people on this site needed to touch base with reality!

It all comes down to this: Marry tall, Marry wealthy and procreate between the months of May and August just to be safe. That way Junior is born in the first half of the calendar year, he will be tall and you will have the $ necessary to pay for the programs he is invited to play in.


http://www.cd-b.com/nhl_-_1.html

I saw a picture of David Fisher as a squirt with the little McBain as a squirt. he is not claimed to be part of the Minnesota 88s, and is not claimed to be a former blade. How did he develop into a 1st round NHL draft pick? Did he reject the 88s and blades and did it his own way, or was he just a natural.

Just curious since there are always arguments on which is best, but there are obviously many right ways to develop. Kind of interesting that Kyle Medvic is a 88 Blade (AV team mate), and Fisher is not one that is not claimed by the big 2.

yeahyeahyeah wrote: U of MN
17 First
9 Second

Surprising that the U is heavy on first half players too. Kind of goes in the face of the theory that the Minnesota system balances things out. I would have guessed that it would be the opposite (second half heavy) since the second half b-days are going to be the older kids coming out of high school.

YEah that surprised me too to a degree. That number is skewed to a degree by some players with names I never heard of though. You could take 3 or 4 names off of the list. I have never heard of the players so I would dare to say they are more or less practice players?
Any rate I do nto think they are elite level players as the rest of the numbers focus on.
That being said, based on all of the B-dates I looked at (as well as Mn in pros list) it appears having a June - July b - date is optimal because those players typically get the best of both worlds?
The good news is our numbers are slightly more balanced than Euro's. It could also be said that our brighter days are ahead because there are so many more high level Summer programs (camps, clinics, AAA) available to our young players than there were just 3-4 years ago.

sorno82 wrote:I saw a picture of David Fisher as a squirt with the little McBain as a squirt. he is not claimed to be part of the Minnesota 88s, and is not claimed to be a former blade. How did he develop into a 1st round NHL draft pick? Did he reject the 88s and blades and did it his own way, or was he just a natural.

Just curious since there are always arguments on which is best, but there are obviously many right ways to develop. Kind of interesting that Kyle Medvic is a 88 Blade (AV team mate), and Fisher is not one that is not claimed by the big 2.

Looking at his stats (2 goals, 14 assists in 2 years at the U) he doesn't appear to be a big playmaker. Chances are that as a Squirt he wasn't either and therefore wasn't sought after for the Minnesota 88's. He's a tall, skinny kid who is a good skater and has a lot of potential if he bulks up. Surprising, though, that he was drafted as high as he was (20th overall).

Looking at his stats (2 goals, 14 assists in 2 years at the U) he doesn't appear to be a big playmaker. Chances are that as a Squirt he wasn't either and therefore wasn't sought after for the Minnesota 88's. He's a tall, skinny kid who is a good skater and has a lot of potential if he bulks up. Surprising, though, that he was drafted as high as he was (20th overall).

Considering the intense recruitment, there are probably at least 50 '88s who either played for the Blades or Minnesota 88s during the key development years, but only 3 were considered better NHL prospects at the age of 18. Usually you need a lot of things going for you to develop to an elite level, but David Fisher did not appear to follow one of the two most obvious paths. It is obvious the BM knew of him. Maybe it was a style issue, but that does not explain the Blades oversight. It would be interesting to know the story.