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One disagreement in tonight's games:

5AA quarterfinals: #5 Andover over #4 Totino-Grace

Lee

Andover is up 2-0 on Totino Grace. So far so good for PageStat

Lee

With #5 Andover knocking off #4 Totino-Grace, PageStat is now +3 on the seedings.

Lee

Work continues on integrating Wisconsin high school hockey with PageStat. I've downloaded the scores starting with the 2009-10 season. Working backwards, I've finished back to the 2012-13 season--only three seasons to go! After that, I'll be posting how adding Wisconsin to the mix affects the Top 20. I'm guessing there will be only minor changes.

I have always included interstate games between Minnesota and Wisconsin (as I do Minnesota and North Dakota) but this is the first time I've included intrastate games. I'd like to do the same with North Dakota but it doesn't appear from their website that there are historical scores. Hopefully there is a resource out there outside of highschoolhockeynd.com which has this info.

Lee

Could Wayzata upset Rogers, or pipe dream?

Only one game today where PageStat disagrees with the seedings:

3A quarterfinal: #5 New Ulm over #4 Minnesota River

Nostalgic Nerd wrote: ↑Thu Feb 19, 2026 3:55 pm Could Wayzata upset Rogers, or pipe dream?

Not a pipe dream although Rogers is a pretty clear favorite. The PageStat line is Rogers by 2.

Lee

PageStat nails another to go +4! #5 New Ulm takes down #4 Minnesota River. PageStat is currently a gaudy 61-2 in predicting section games. Seedings are 57-6, best winning record is 55-8. I'm not calling this yet because we still have half the games to go, but it looks very good at this point.

Lee

What's the line on the MG/Andover game? Any upset specials coming up?

Nostalgic Nerd wrote: ↑Fri Feb 20, 2026 6:47 am What's the line on the MG/Andover game? Any upset specials coming up?

Maple Grove by 2.

PageStat predicts two upsets this weekend:

5AA semis: #3 Centennial over #2 Blaine
8AA semis: #3 Elk River over #2 St Michael-Albertville

In addition, assuming the top two seeds in each section make it to their section finals, we will have additional upset picks:

1AA: #2 Lakeville South over #1 Farmington
3AA: #2 St Thomas Academy over #1 Rosemount
3A: #2 Mankato West over #1 Luverne
7A: #2 Hermantown over #1 Hibbing

They may be another upset or two in section finals depending on if the lower seeds pull off upsets in their semifinals.

So, PageStat could end up anywhere from -2 to +10 against the seedings this year. I rather like those odds but stranger things have happened.

Lee

east hockey wrote: ↑Fri Feb 20, 2026 7:03 am

Nostalgic Nerd wrote: ↑Fri Feb 20, 2026 6:47 am What's the line on the MG/Andover game? Any upset specials coming up?

Maple Grove by 2.

PageStat predicts two upsets this weekend:

5AA semis: #3 Centennial over #2 Blaine
8AA semis: #3 Elk River over #2 St Michael-Albertville

In addition, assuming the top two seeds in each section make it to their section finals, we will have additional upset picks:

1AA: #2 Lakeville South over #1 Farmington
3AA: #2 St Thomas Academy over #1 Rosemount
3A: #2 Mankato West over #1 Luverne
7A: #2 Hermantown over #1 Hibbing

They may be another upset or two in section finals depending on if the lower seeds pull off upsets in their semifinals.

So, PageStat could end up anywhere from -2 to +10 against the seedings this year. I rather like those odds but stranger things have happened.

Lee

Is there a link to pagestat and the section matchups?

Nostalgic Nerd wrote: ↑Fri Feb 20, 2026 11:18 am

east hockey wrote: ↑Fri Feb 20, 2026 7:03 am

Nostalgic Nerd wrote: ↑Fri Feb 20, 2026 6:47 am What's the line on the MG/Andover game? Any upset specials coming up?

Maple Grove by 2.

PageStat predicts two upsets this weekend:

5AA semis: #3 Centennial over #2 Blaine
8AA semis: #3 Elk River over #2 St Michael-Albertville

In addition, assuming the top two seeds in each section make it to their section finals, we will have additional upset picks:

1AA: #2 Lakeville South over #1 Farmington
3AA: #2 St Thomas Academy over #1 Rosemount
3A: #2 Mankato West over #1 Luverne
7A: #2 Hermantown over #1 Hibbing

They may be another upset or two in section finals depending on if the lower seeds pull off upsets in their semifinals.

So, PageStat could end up anywhere from -2 to +10 against the seedings this year. I rather like those odds but stranger things have happened.

Lee

Is there a link to pagestat and the section matchups?

Link to PageStat:

https://leepagen.com/ps2026.htm

Link to the Section matchups and scores:

https://leepagen.com/boys2026.htm

The "PS" column shows the team # PageStat is picking in that individual game based on their end-of-regular-season rating

Link to my site:

https://leepagen.com/

Lee

Only four games today; no disagreements between PageStat and the seedings.

Lee

PageStat grabs another one! #3 Centennial over #2 Blaine in the 5AA semis. Now +5

One more disagreement today:

8AA semis: #3 Elk River over #2 St Michael-Albertville. PageStat is ready to spike the ball as the Elks are up 2-0.

PageStat picks at least one more "upset" on Tuesday with #2 St Thomas Academy over #1 Rosemount in the 3AA final.

Lee

PageStat wraps this up with Elk River beating St Michael-Albertville. There have been eight disagreements so far between PageStat and the seedings. PageStat has won seven of them and now sits +6.

Here are the remaining disagreements:

3AA final: #2 St Thomas Academy over #1 Rosemount

Here are possible disagreements, depending on how the section semifinals play out:

1AA: #2 Lakeville South over #1 Rosemount
1A: #4 Rochester Lourdes over #3 Dodge County (both would need upsets in their semifinal games)
3A: #2 Mankato West over #1 Luverne
7A: #2 Hermantown over @1 Hibbing

Here is something cool; Hermantown's PageStat advantage over Hibbing is 0.00626 points

So, the seedings could potentially close the gap to one game, or could lose by as many as 11 games. Either way, it's currently a rout.

Lee

PageStat is picking the lower seed in these upcoming games:

1AA final--#2 Lakeville South over #1 Farmington
3AA final--#2 St Thomas Academy over #1 Rosemount
3A final--#2 Mankato West over #1 Luverne

My prediction? PageStat only takes one of the three and ends up +5 over the seedings

Lee

While the official ratings on my website won't be updated until after the section tournaments are completed on Friday, I've updated everything through yesterday. Here are your top 20:

Class AA

1. Minnetonka
2. Moorhead
3. St Thomas Academy
4. Rogers
5. Edina
6. Rosemount
7. Shakopee
8. Wayzata
9. Hill-Murray
10. Maple Grove
11. Cretin-Derham Hall
12. Holy Angels
13. Chanhassen
14. White Bear Lake
15. Grand Rapids
16. Stillwater
17. Eden Prairie
18. Centennial
19. Lakeville South
20. Elk River

Class A

1. Hibbing
2. Hermantown
3. Warroad
4. Sartell
5. Delano
6. Mahtomedi
7. Cloquet
8. Blake
9. Northfield
10. East Grand Forks
11. St Cloud Cathedral
12. Breck
13. Monticello
14. Mankato West
15. Detroit Lakes
16. Northern Lakes
17. Orono
18. Waseca
19. Chisago Lakes
20. St Louis Park

Using your list to get a heads up on seeding for Saint Paul

1. Minnetonka
2. Moorhead
3. St Thomas Academy
5. Edina
6. Rosemount
8. Wayzata
9. Hill-Murray
13. Chanhassen
14. White Bear Lake
15. Grand Rapids
16. Stillwater
18. Centennial
19. Lakeville South
20. Elk River

Using your list to get a heads up on seeding for Saint Paul

1. Minnetonka
2. Moorhead
3. St Thomas Academy
5. Edina
6. Rosemount
8. Wayzata
9. Hill-Murray
13. Chanhassen
14. White Bear Lake
15. Grand Rapids
16. Stillwater
18. Centennial
19. Lakeville South
20. Elk River
28 Gentry
30 Rock Ridge
31 Farmington
34 Andover