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Sparlimb wrote: ↑Fri Feb 07, 2025 12:43 pm

east hockey wrote: ↑Fri Feb 07, 2025 12:40 pm A special Friday edition of PageStat reveals the Top 20 in each class:

HAL sees the light! j/k

All it took was a crappy game by Rogers, too!

Lee

Well in mid Nov I picked Pios to win the state trny , so gotta like this list

WestMetro wrote: ↑Fri Feb 07, 2025 5:21 pm Well in mid Nov I picked Pios to win the state trny , so gotta like this list

I did note that as the rest at the table showed their west side bias...

We should have picked Moorhead in retrospect...

Some great games on tap today! Here is PageStat's picks of the best ones:

#10 Benilde-St Margarets vs #18 Grand Rapids
#21 Maple Grove vs #3 St Thomas Acad.
#4 Rogers vs #1 Hill-Murray
#9 Rosemount vs #8 Shakopee
#6 Stillwater vs #7 Cretin Derham Hall
#13 Wayzata vs #5 Edina

Lee

A special mid-week running of PageStat reveals the following Top 20's:

Class AA

1. Hill Murray
2. Moorhead
3. Stillwater
4. Rogers
5. St Thomas Academy
6. Edina
7. Cretin Derham Hall
8. Shakopee
9. Benilde St Margarets
10. Rosemount
11. Eden Prairie
12. Holy Angels
13. Wayzata
14. White Bear Lake
15. Minnetonka
16. Maple Grove
17. Grand Rapids
18. Lakeville South
19. Andover
20. Champlin Park

Class A

1. Hermantown
2. Warroad
3. Hibbing
4. Cloquet
5. Monticello
6. Orono
7. St Cloud Cathedral
8. Northfield
9. Minneapolis
10. East Grand Forks
11. Mahtomedi
12. Delano
13. Northern Lakes
14. Little Falls
15. Chisago Lakes
16. Detroit Lakes
17. Alexandria
18. Luverne
19. Waseca
20. Breck

A note: The final regular season PageStat ratings will be posted Saturday instead of the usual Sunday posting. This is due to some section tournaments beginning on Saturday and PageStat will be using this week's ratings to predict Section Tournament games. (This has been in effect for 20+ years)

Lee

A weird side effect of Stillwater forfeiting two games they had won at the start of the season (over Maple Grove and Eden Prairie) was that they dropped in PageStat from #3 to #6.

Those games were tossed out by PageStat rather than chalked up as 1-0 wins for those two opponents.

The closest parallel I can draw to what happened to Stillwater was what happened to Duluth East in the 1997-98 season. They started the season by defeating Duluth Central and Elk River but then forfeited those two wins due to a "paperwork snafu" involving senior forward Rheese Carlson. He was immediately pulled off the team after their second game but was later allowed by the State League to rejoin the Hounds after sitting out their next seven games, due to an appeal East had filed with the League.

I would have to recheck to see how PageStat handled those two games. I believe I credited them with their original scores, and if so, I need to reverse that.

(Note: they were done incorrectly and corrected. East still stayed #1 in State in the season-end ratings)

Lee

With seven play-in section tournament games being played today, there are no disagreements between PageStat and the seedings.

PageStat was even with the seedings last year and hasn't lost to the seedings since the 2014 tournaments. A little more detail will be posted later. As always, I'm pessimistic about its chances heading into the sections, but I always am. No reason to be, just am.

My favorite three weeks of the year are about to start. Good luck to all teams!

Lee

With all the seedings released, PageStat disagrees with the seedings in at least 10 games! (There will certainly be more)

There are also six instances where PageStat has a team other than the #1 seed ranked highest in its section, setting up the potential for more disagreements in those cases where the top two seeds in a section advance to their section final (which almost certainly will not happen)

This could be some weird wild stuff resulting in anything from a PageStat humiliation to a PageStat domination similar to 2019 and 2023.

Here is how PageStat has fared against the seedings throughout the years:

1999: 8-4
2000: 7-1
2001: 12-10
2002: 5-7
2003: 11-4
2004: 6-3
2005: 5-8
2006: 7-8
2007: 9-6
2008: 5-5
2009: 6-7
2010: 11-6
2011: 7-4
2012: 5-2
2013: 5-7
2014: 3-4
2015: 8-5
2016: 3-3
2017: 8-4
2018: 7-4
2019: 13-3
2020: 6-5
2021: not run
2022: 9-2
2023: 8-1
2024: 4-4

Total: 178-117 (.603)

PageStat has won 16 seasons, the seedings have won 6, and 2 were tied.

Breaking down the 24 seasons into three equal parts, PageStat is 58-26 (.690) over the past eight seasons.

Lee

PageStat is picking three upsets tonight:

#9 Bloom Jefferson over #8 Chaska in 2AA
#9 Eagan over #8 Hastings in 3AA
#5 Prairie Centre over #4 Breckenridge in 6A

Lee

east hockey wrote: ↑Tue Feb 18, 2025 7:03 pm PageStat is picking three upsets tonight:

#9 Bloom Jefferson over #8 Chaska in 2AA
#9 Eagan over #8 Hastings in 3AA
#5 Prairie Centre over #4 Breckenridge in 6A

Lee

Missed two (Bloom Jefferson and Prairie Centre) and hit one (Eagan). PageStat sits one game down to the seedings.

Lee

PageStat disagrees with the seedings in three games on 2/19:

#5 Breck over #4 Providence Academy in 2A
#5 Simley over #4 St Paul Academy in 4A
#5 Sauk Rapids over #4 Pine City in 5A

Looking ahead to tomorrow (2/20) there will be three more disagreements

Lee

Awesome that the history goes back that far

east hockey wrote: ↑Tue Feb 18, 2025 9:40 pm

east hockey wrote: ↑Tue Feb 18, 2025 7:03 pm PageStat is picking three upsets tonight:

#9 Bloom Jefferson over #8 Chaska in 2AA
#9 Eagan over #8 Hastings in 3AA
#5 Prairie Centre over #4 Breckenridge in 6A

Lee

Missed two (Bloom Jefferson and Prairie Centre) and hit one (Eagan). PageStat sits one game down to the seedings.

Lee

Jefferson took Chaska to OT, so it really was a coin flip game.

ryguyMN wrote: ↑Wed Feb 19, 2025 2:51 pm

east hockey wrote: ↑Tue Feb 18, 2025 9:40 pm

east hockey wrote: ↑Tue Feb 18, 2025 7:03 pm PageStat is picking three upsets tonight:

#9 Bloom Jefferson over #8 Chaska in 2AA
#9 Eagan over #8 Hastings in 3AA
#5 Prairie Centre over #4 Breckenridge in 6A

Lee

Missed two (Bloom Jefferson and Prairie Centre) and hit one (Eagan). PageStat sits one game down to the seedings.

Lee

Jefferson took Chaska to OT, so it really was a coin flip game.

A lot of these 9 vs 8 and 5 vs 4 games tend to be

Lee

PageStat is ahead in one game (by only a goal) and behind in the other two (by two goals and four goals). It might escape the night being only -2 but ending the night -4 isn't out of the question.

Lee

Simley hanging on to beat St Paul Academy tonight kept the bleeding from becoming a bloodbath. PageStat lost two of three tonight and sits -2 to the seedings. There are still plenty of disagreements coming up to overcome this. Or get buried by this.

Lee

PageStat picks three upsets tonight vs the seedings. Seedings are currently up two games.

#5 Farmington over #4 New Prague in 1AA
#5 Blaine over #4 Totino Grace in 5AA
#5 Dodge County over #4 Albert Lea in 1AA

Lee

Not all games are complete but it looks like PageStat will probably go 1-2 versus the seedings tonight (again), putting the seedings +3 on PageStat.

There are at least two and possibly several more disagreements to come but it's not looking good for HAL!

Lee

PageStat is sitting -2 with at least two more disagreements (none tonight) coming and possibly two others depending on how tonight's semifinal games end up.

Although with Cretin down 2-0 to Rosemount, one of those possible upset picks (Cretin over STA) may not happen. The other possible pick would be Mahtomedi over Chisago Lakes

The two for sure upset picks are Andover over Rock Ridge and Hibbing over Cloquet. After watching the 7A and 7AA semifinals on Saturday, I'd say confidence is high. So I just jinxed HAL

Lee

PageStat is still at -2 heading into Wednesday's action. There are five remaining upsets which PageStat is picking. It needs to win at least four of these to overcome the seedings and ensure its tenth straight season of at least breaking even.

#2 Cretin-Derham Hall over #1 St Thomas Academy in 3AA
#2 Andover over #1 Rock Ridge in 7AA
#3 Orono over #1 Minneapolis in 2A
#2 Mahtomedi over #1 Chisago Lakes in 4A
#3 Hibbing over #1 Cloquet in 7A

Man, it seems like just yesterday we were watching the seedings being announced in the sections and now we're only 18 games away from the State Tournament field being set!

Lee

Orono defeats Minneapolis 4-3 to make PageStat -1. Hibbing and Cloquet are tied 3-3 late in the 3rd. I had a good feeling about this one going in, not so much now. Cloquet is playing very well

Lee

PageStat has evened it up by nailing two "upsets" tonight. Only three disagreements left!

Lee

Mahtomedi beat Chisago Lakes. Assuming Andover holds onto their two goal lead late in the 3rd over Rock Ridge (I do NOT want this!!), PageStat will have secured a come-from-behind win over the seedings. I'm surprised despite recent results.

Lee

Andover beats Rock Ridge in 7AA, putting PageStat up +2 and clinching it for the 2025 sections.

Lee

State Tournament seedings according to PageStat:

Class AA

1. Moorhead
2. Stillwater
3. Rogers
4. St Thomas Academy
5. Edina
6. Shakopee
7. Andover
8. Lakeville South

Class A

1. Hibbing
2. St Cloud Cathedral
3. Orono
4. East Grand Forks
5. Northfield
6. Mahtomedi
7. Northern Lakes
8. Luverne

I had one score entered incorrectly for East Grand Forks, caught when I did my weekly reconciliation of W/L records this morning. As a result, they flipped with Northfield. Yeah, that's how close their ratings were! (17.71 vs 17.67)

Lee