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Posted: **Mon Dec 03, 2012 5:17 pm**

Parsed together from a previous exchange I had with scorekeeper:

scorekeeper wrote:Maybe not deeper than Edina, but yes, [Eagan is] deeper than Tonka IMO

Why? I'd argue Eagan lost more scoring - for instance Zajac, N. Kuchera, Merchant, Wolfe, Mason and May compared with Lettieri, Rothstein, Baskin and Prochno for Tonka. Tonka returns Coatta, Thie, Ramsey, Vannelli, Bader and the higher scoring Schuldt and Eagan returns Glienke, Willox, and W Peterson - clear advantage Tonka. In net Ciaccio played 695 min in net while Lindgren played 467. I wouldn't even hazard a guess how it will all play out on ice but on paper Eagan is clearly not definitively deeper in returning experience.

To add to that I am pretty sure Tonka had the advantage in Bantams and JV last season.

We'll see.

Posted: **Mon Dec 03, 2012 6:21 pm**

Slap Shot wrote: Why? I'd argue Eagan lost more scoring - for instance Zajac, N. Kuchera, Merchant, Wolfe, Mason and May compared with Lettieri, Rothstein, Baskin and Prochno for Tonka. Tonka returns Coatta, Thie, Ramsey, Vannelli, Bader and the higher scoring Schuldt and Eagan returns Glienke, Willox, and W Peterson - clear advantage Tonka.

Clear advantage Tonka? Really? You are certainly entitled to your opinion but I think the facts show something different.

Here's the goals and goalies both teams return.

Minnetonka 2011-12
------------------------

Player ----- Goals

Coatta 23
Thie 11
Vannelli 7
Schuldt 2
Bader 8
Ridge 6
Hanson 1
Huminski 4
Burt 0
Brandabur 0
---------
62 goals

Ciaccio 14-2-0 / 1.60 GAA / .909 %

Eagan 2011-12
------------------------

Player ----- Goals

Glienke 27
Willox 16
Peterson 11
Jenson 3
Schultz 4
Smallidge 1
Elsenheimer 1
Muck 0
Zibley 0
Wolff 0
---------
63 goals

Lindgren 9-0-0 / 1.34 GAA / .902 %

I don't see a clear advantage for Tonka there. Statistically, I see a miniscule advantage on offense for Eagan and a small advantage in experience in goal for Minnetonka.

There is also a big advantage in playoff experience for Eagan, returning more players with post season success / State Tournament games.

Additionally, some of Eagan's best returning players (including it's impressive defense corp), have little in the way of stats from last year, but have been making their case on other platforms, like Wolff did at the National Festival, for example.

Also, a lot of Eagan's "depth" players had outstanding fall seasons in the D-League and some even had Elite League experience.

So while statistically it appears to be a dead heat, I do give Eagan a small edge in depth and experience.

As you said, we'll see. Should be a good one.

(NOTE: I didn't add Ramsey or Loew. Not sure if either are playing in this one)

Posted: **Mon Dec 03, 2012 7:00 pm**

scorekeeper wrote:
Slap Shot wrote: Why? I'd argue Eagan lost more scoring - for instance Zajac, N. Kuchera, Merchant, Wolfe, Mason and May compared with Lettieri, Rothstein, Baskin and Prochno for Tonka. Tonka returns Coatta, Thie, Ramsey, Vannelli, Bader and the higher scoring Schuldt and Eagan returns Glienke, Willox, and W Peterson - clear advantage Tonka.
Clear advantage Tonka? Really? You are certainly entitled to your opinion but I think the facts show something different.

Here's the goals and goalies both teams return.

Minnetonka 2011-12
------------------------

Player ----- Goals

Coatta 23
Thie 11
Vannelli 7
Schuldt 2
Bader 8
Ridge 6
Hanson 1
Huminski 4
Burt 0
Brandabur 0
---------
62 goals

Ciaccio 14-2-0 / 1.60 GAA / .909 %

Eagan 2011-12
------------------------

Player ----- Goals

Glienke 27
Willox 16
Peterson 11
Jenson 3
Schultz 4
Smallidge 1
Elsenheimer 1
Muck 0
Zibley 0
Wolff 0
---------
63 goals

Lindgren 9-0-0 / 1.34 GAA / .902 %

I don't see a clear advantage for Tonka there. Statistically, I see a miniscule advantage on offense for Eagan and a small advantage in experience in goal for Minnetonka.

There is also a big advantage in playoff experience for Eagan, returning more players with post season success / State Tournament games.

Additionally, some of Eagan's best returning players (including it's impressive defense corp), have little in the way of stats from last year, but have been making their case on other platforms, like Wolff did at the National Festival, for example.

Also, a lot of Eagan's "depth" players had outstanding fall seasons in the D-League and some even had Elite League experience.

So while statistically it appears to be a dead heat, I do give Eagan a small edge in depth and experience.

As you said, we'll see. Should be a good one.

(NOTE: I didn't add Ramsey or Loew. Not sure if either are playing in this one)

I love the data you provide but your looking at it wrong. 63 goals for the returning Eagan players against teams like Kennedy, Rosemount, Apple Valley, and the Lakevilles compared to 62 goals against teams like Wayzata, Edina and Eden Prairie... plus Ciaccio had a great year last year and Experience wise Coatta has been on the team since he was a freshman, Thie has big game experience while Vannelli and Schuldt have been on the team for awhile. So i would definitely give the edge to the Tonka boys even if they have less goals.

Posted: **Mon Dec 03, 2012 7:12 pm**

Your post -- "Didn't Eagan just take the State runner-up to OT? Is that considered "relatively weak" these days?
If that's the case then teams who lost to or tied other teams (Blaine, Roseau, Wayzata, Burnsville, Andover, Elk River etc.) must be off to downright awful starts.

Is talking about results/scores but if you combine that with actually seeing the game then a post has more credibility for me. I've seen 14 teams this year including Blaine, Hill, Eagan, Burnsville, LVS, Roseau, Jefferson, Cloquet, Edina, Maple Grove, Holy Family, Wayzata, Como, & Somerset - plus I watched Eagan's players in the Elite League and I wasn't that impressed with Glienke after seeing him in 14 games..And, compared to the other top teams I've seen this year, Eagan as a team, looked mediocre - and Hill is a weak Defensive team other than at G.

You also say, "Didn't Eagan just take the State runner-up to OT? Is that considered "relatively weak."... No they didn't. They took the 2012-13 Hill Murray team to OT.. Hill is a very different team this year and is not playing all that well right now but I put them at 5 in my rankings based on pulling out the two wins over top rated teams and the expectation that SSM transfer Slattery will join Lavalle and Brown on the first line which would completely change the dynamic of that line and likely have them hitting on all cylinders - like at the end of last season... I just couldn't justify putting anyone else at #5 (Blaine and Hill were a tie in my rankings)... I've seen most of the other teams..

Again you talk about Blaine tying Roseau but if you were at that game you would have seen that this was a fluke.. Roseau put in three quick goals with a talented first line but after that Blaine completely dominated, putting 50+ shots on net (22 for Roseau) plus a few pipes etc.. On another night that could have been a 7-1 Blaine win based on the way the two teams played.. which is what I go by as much or more so than score.. Their D got the puck out of the zone quickly and kept feeding these fast, quick, talented forwards in a way that looked as fluid and as orchestrated as a team playing it's 25th game, not their first... Eagan was not even in same league in terms of moving the puck and having dozens of rushes that could have resulted in goals..

Yes, Eagan did take Hill to OT but Hill was missing their top D and is thin at D anyways, so I expected Eagan to put up 5-6 goals if they were to live up to the hype on this forum.. Last's years team dropped Hill 4-2 and it wasn't really that close but you lost 4 D1 players and I haven't seen the 'program depth' that allows good programs to reload after player losses.. If Eagan stays with Tonka I will be the first to say I was off and need to re-evaluate the team but I just don't see that happening.. Plus I'd like to actually see the game before dramatically changing my view of a team.

Posted: **Mon Dec 03, 2012 7:13 pm**

Fair points, but many of those same players who didn't put up much in varsity, did put up much more impressive production in the fall leagues where they werent playing a soft schedule as heavy favorites

Posted: **Mon Dec 03, 2012 7:26 pm**

green4 wrote:
scorekeeper wrote:
Slap Shot wrote: Why? I'd argue Eagan lost more scoring - for instance Zajac, N. Kuchera, Merchant, Wolfe, Mason and May compared with Lettieri, Rothstein, Baskin and Prochno for Tonka. Tonka returns Coatta, Thie, Ramsey, Vannelli, Bader and the higher scoring Schuldt and Eagan returns Glienke, Willox, and W Peterson - clear advantage Tonka.
Clear advantage Tonka? Really? You are certainly entitled to your opinion but I think the facts show something different.

Here's the goals and goalies both teams return.

Minnetonka 2011-12
------------------------

Didn't Eagan have 3 or 4 more games by going to State. I only counted regular season goals in my analysis to level the playing field.. And strength of schedule is huge as well, obviously.

Player ----- Goals

Coatta 23
Thie 11
Vannelli 7
Schuldt 2
Bader 8
Ridge 6
Hanson 1
Huminski 4
Burt 0
Brandabur 0
---------
62 goals

Ciaccio 14-2-0 / 1.60 GAA / .909 %

Eagan 2011-12
------------------------

Player ----- Goals

Glienke 27
Willox 16
Peterson 11
Jenson 3
Schultz 4
Smallidge 1
Elsenheimer 1
Muck 0
Zibley 0
Wolff 0
---------
63 goals

Lindgren 9-0-0 / 1.34 GAA / .902 %

I don't see a clear advantage for Tonka there. Statistically, I see a miniscule advantage on offense for Eagan and a small advantage in experience in goal for Minnetonka.

There is also a big advantage in playoff experience for Eagan, returning more players with post season success / State Tournament games.

Additionally, some of Eagan's best returning players (including it's impressive defense corp), have little in the way of stats from last year, but have been making their case on other platforms, like Wolff did at the National Festival, for example.

Also, a lot of Eagan's "depth" players had outstanding fall seasons in the D-League and some even had Elite League experience.

So while statistically it appears to be a dead heat, I do give Eagan a small edge in depth and experience.

As you said, we'll see. Should be a good one.

(NOTE: I didn't add Ramsey or Loew. Not sure if either are playing in this one)
I love the data you provide but your looking at it wrong. 63 goals for the returning Eagan players against teams like Kennedy, Rosemount, Apple Valley, and the Lakevilles compared to 62 goals against teams like Wayzata, Edina and Eden Prairie... plus Ciaccio had a great year last year and Experience wise Coatta has been on the team since he was a freshman, Thie has big game experience while Vannelli and Schuldt have been on the team for awhile. So i would definitely give the edge to the Tonka boys even if they have less goals.

Posted: **Mon Dec 03, 2012 7:43 pm**

D3Referee wrote:
tonkafan77 wrote:I didn't mean to offend all of you Eagan fans out there. I really didn't.

There has been a lot of talk about this Eagan team and I will believe all of you once they prove that they can win against the big boys. For now, a 5-4 win over East Ridge doesn't cut it for me.
You can call it whatever you like. I don't really care who you offend. I am just not sure how you equate an OT result against the State runner-up as a "relatively weak" start. I'd say that's a pretty impressive start - I don't care who you are.

If you guys in Minnetonka want to build this as David vs. Goliath, go ahead. I am pretty sure Eagan fans will enjoy that.

:D

Keep referring to Eagan taking state runner up to OT.. The team Saturday wasn't state runner up, they were the 2012-13 Pioneers who are a very different team.. This isn't the NFL before free agency where you get the same team back the next year.. Plus, Hill wasn't that good last year, they just got hot at the right time and had nearly everything go their way in State, to my delight and surprise. But they got blown out by Tonka 7-3, got spanked by Eden Prairie 5-3 and by Eagan 4-2 (not as close as scores) during mid season and barely beat a weak Roseville team (4-3) to go to state.. People, including me, want to have this narrative about a team, a season etc but there is as much randomness, variance, blind luck, etc that we filter out. This is a good case..

Posted: **Mon Dec 03, 2012 9:11 pm**

scorekeeper wrote:
observer wrote:Just not quite as long winded.
I know I need to work on that. Pulling out the blackboard now and writing 100 times

"Brevity is Wit"
"Brevity is Wit"
"Brevity is Wit"

I can't help myself. Now I am going to write it out 100 times here

"Brevity is Wit"
"Brevity is Wit"
"Brevity is Wit"
"Brevity is Wit"
"Brevity is Wit"
"Brevity is Wit"
"Brevity is Wit"
"Brevity is Wit"
"Brevity is Wit"

K, that wasn't as fun as I thought it was gonna be. All done now

It takes some time to learn these things. (Says the kid who puts out pages and pages' worth of rankings on this site...)

Posted: **Mon Dec 03, 2012 10:51 pm**

Reading into last years numbers to compare returning players is iffy at best, different opponents and schedules make comparing pretty meaningless. Eagan returns several forwards who had good years but its a little easier to score when there are 4 three year veterans manning the blue line for almost the entire game. I for one will be shocked if Eagan's D will be close to as good as last years. Wolfe, May, McGovern and Kuchera are not that easy to replace.
I think Coatta scored as many goals as a ninth grader as he did last year, that might just have had something to do with being on a line with Max Gardiner.

Last years Eagan team played their seniors a ton! Other than 3 forwards they are pretty much a new team, to say they have a lot of experience is a real stretch.

Posted: **Tue Dec 04, 2012 3:43 am**

Ok as Eagan's "Original BIG Fan" on here I will put in my two cents. The jury is still out on this Wildcat team and will be for awhile like most teams. The tight game against East Ridge is a concern but they looked much stronger against Hillmurray. However I would agree that I did not see one single player stand out for Hill in the game against Eagan. They are solid all around but I did not see the usual star power so how strong a game that was for Eagan is yet to be determined. Eagan has a nice nucleous of players in Glienke, Willox, Peterson, Jensen and the Freshman Gabrielle who has 2 goals in 2 games. The defense looks decent but not close to last years blue liners. Goaltending is still up in the air, Lindgren looked shakey against East Ridge but strong against Hillmurray. I think in the end he will be more like the one that played against Hillmurray. Overall I like the makeup, good size and they like to use it, although maybe a little too aggressive in the Hill game. Overall team speed is decent, I think last years team was overall faster. I tend to think that Eagan can stay with Tonka so long as they keep penalties to a minimum and Lindren plays like he did against Hillmurray. I would go with either a 1 or 2 goal loss or win at this point. I think by seasons end they will be in the tournament conversation, maybe even a seed depending on who makes it in, and that included Eagan, it wont be quite as easy as last year.

Posted: **Tue Dec 04, 2012 11:18 am**

scorekeeper wrote:
Slap Shot wrote: Why? I'd argue Eagan lost more scoring - for instance Zajac, N. Kuchera, Merchant, Wolfe, Mason and May compared with Lettieri, Rothstein, Baskin and Prochno for Tonka. Tonka returns Coatta, Thie, Ramsey, Vannelli, Bader and the higher scoring Schuldt and Eagan returns Glienke, Willox, and W Peterson - clear advantage Tonka.
Clear advantage Tonka? Really? You are certainly entitled to your opinion but I think the facts show something different.

Here's the goals and goalies both teams return.

Minnetonka 2011-12
------------------------

Player ----- Goals

Coatta 23
Thie 11
Vannelli 7
Schuldt 2
Bader 8
Ridge 6
Hanson 1
Huminski 4
Burt 0
Brandabur 0
---------
62 goals

Ciaccio 14-2-0 / 1.60 GAA / .909 %

Eagan 2011-12
------------------------

Player ----- Goals

Glienke 27
Willox 16
Peterson 11
Jenson 3
Schultz 4
Smallidge 1
Elsenheimer 1
Muck 0
Zibley 0
Wolff 0
---------
63 goals

Lindgren 9-0-0 / 1.34 GAA / .902 %

I don't see a clear advantage for Tonka there. Statistically, I see a miniscule advantage on offense for Eagan and a small advantage in experience in goal for Minnetonka.

There is also a big advantage in playoff experience for Eagan, returning more players with post season success / State Tournament games.

Additionally, some of Eagan's best returning players (including it's impressive defense corp), have little in the way of stats from last year, but have been making their case on other platforms, like Wolff did at the National Festival, for example.

Also, a lot of Eagan's "depth" players had outstanding fall seasons in the D-League and some even had Elite League experience.

So while statistically it appears to be a dead heat, I do give Eagan a small edge in depth and experience.

As you said, we'll see. Should be a good one.

(NOTE: I didn't add Ramsey or Loew. Not sure if either are playing in this one)

You missed Ramsey on Tonka...
8 Goals (14 Assists) in his sophomore season

Posted: **Tue Dec 04, 2012 11:37 am**

GTTN wrote:
scorekeeper wrote:
(NOTE: I didn't add Ramsey or Loew. Not sure if either are playing in this one)
You missed Ramsey on Tonka...
8 Goals (14 Assists) in his sophomore season

And you missed scorekeeper's disclaimer.

Posted: **Tue Dec 04, 2012 12:46 pm**

almostashappy wrote:
GTTN wrote:
scorekeeper wrote:
(NOTE: I didn't add Ramsey or Loew. Not sure if either are playing in this one)
You missed Ramsey on Tonka...
8 Goals (14 Assists) in his sophomore season
And you missed scorekeeper's disclaimer. :oops:

Ramsey is another one that isn't best evaluated by last years performance. He's a kid growing into a big body and he's getting better every month. And I was an anti-Ramsey guy in the spring when he make the U17 because he made it on potential rather than points.. But this fall, in the Elite league he was a top 10 scorer (also had nice talent on line but should at Tonka as well) and showed marked improvement - still a little clumsy but less so...., Again, danger of just going by outdated stats for teenagers.. Ramsey is more of a 22-25 goal guy this year if healthy.. Which is why the Gophers just signed him. You know they didn't do that based on his 8 goals last year or whatever it was....

Same with Charlie Sampair who was Mr Hockey and 30 goal scorer for Hill as a Sr. He had 6 goals as a Jr.. But if you saw him in the spring and again in Elite League, you could have seen a higher total coming, maybe not 30 but you get the idea.....

Posted: **Tue Dec 04, 2012 1:53 pm**

Slattery would have gone to Centennial so he is from that area

observer wrote:Everyone,

Scorekeeper has some issues.

In 2011-2012 Eagan Bantam A was ranked 34th at the end of the season with a record of 17-21.

In 2010-2011 Eagan Bantam A was ranked 47th at the end of the season with a record of 15-24.

http://myhockeyrankings.com/rankings.php

That generally doesn't translate into a top 10 ranking. Remember, that's overall. Getting to the tournament doesn't mean you're top 20 as there are several teams, in stronger Sections, that don't make it. I really liked last years team. I liked Maple Grove too. In fact, they were my picks at the Tourney. Both disappointed. A bubble of solid players, like the groups on those two teams last season, are very rare.

Hey knowledgeable one, let me ask... Where does Slaterry live? Where does the roaming one, Jack Jenson, live? Lindgren?

Posted: **Tue Dec 04, 2012 2:41 pm**

Tonka - 4
Eagan - 2

Cats will not survive the Skipper forechecking pressure. Watch out for 6 and 8 in the corners. Just sayin...

Posted: **Tue Dec 04, 2012 3:59 pm**

Granttenn wrote:Ramsey is another one that isn't best evaluated by last years performance. He's a kid growing into a big body and he's getting better every month. And I was an anti-Ramsey guy in the spring when he make the U17 because he made it on potential rather than points.. But this fall, in the Elite league he was a top 10 scorer (also had nice talent on line but should at Tonka as well) and showed marked improvement - still a little clumsy but less so...., Again, danger of just going by outdated stats for teenagers.. Ramsey is more of a 22-25 goal guy this year if healthy.. Which is why the Gophers just signed him. You know they didn't do that based on his 8 goals last year or whatever it was....

Same with Charlie Sampair who was Mr Hockey and 30 goal scorer for Hill as a Sr. He had 6 goals as a Jr.. But if you saw him in the spring and again in Elite League, you could have seen a higher total coming, maybe not 30 but you get the idea.....

Thats been kinda my point all along. Someone (I think you) put it out there that Tonka returned more goals and goal scorers from last year and therefore were superior. That the two groups were not in the same world (apples to armchairs or something as you put it).

I knew on instinct your judgement was flawed, but was surprised as well to see it didn't even match the facts. In fact statistically the returners were pretty evenly matched.

My point was exactly what you are now refering to, that many of these kids cannot be judged on outdated or non-existent stats. During the offseason, this Wildcat team had 7 players in Elite D (not to mention Wolff at the National Festival) , most of whom excelled to the point of being regular callups to Elite and selected to the various NIT / All Star teams the fall leagues offered (Wolff made the National All Star team). Judging these kids on their limited contributions to last years varsity team is foolish and done at your own peril.

My assertion from the get-go is that this group will SURPRISE many. I know they earned my respect with their play on the ice, which I was fortunate enough to witness first hand all spring, summer and fall.

More bad news for Eagan ... yet another key player down for the count in this one tonight. This has been a group though who have handled adversity well in both prior games. I expect they compete well again tonight.

Posted: **Tue Dec 04, 2012 4:16 pm**

scorekeeper wrote:More bad news for Eagan ... yet another key player down for the count in this one tonight.

Posted: **Tue Dec 04, 2012 4:52 pm**

Did anyone see that Tonka dropped 47 shots on Apple Valley and limited them to 14.. This is a team without a weakness and will show it tonight, if the stars are aligned.. 5-2 Tonka

Posted: **Tue Dec 04, 2012 4:59 pm**

Wallyworld wrote:Did anyone see that Tonka dropped 47 shots on Apple Valley and limited them to 14.. This is a team without a weakness and will show it tonight, if the stars are aligned.. 5-2 Tonka

If the Skippers don't have a weakness, then why would anyone care where the stars are positioned?

Posted: **Tue Dec 04, 2012 5:00 pm**

Wallyworld wrote:Did anyone see that Tonka dropped 47 shots on Apple Valley and limited them to 14.. This is a team without a weakness and will show it tonight, if the stars are aligned.. 5-2 Tonka

Yes. The team without a flaw. The best team ever. It's Drago vs Rockey. David vs. Goliath.

Pass the popcorn, I know how this ends.

Posted: **Tue Dec 04, 2012 5:15 pm**

So apparently only goals scored last year, not assists nor any points from 2010-11 matter, but a trip to State when the game will be played at Pagel does.

Posted: **Tue Dec 04, 2012 6:08 pm**

I know this doesn't matter at all....but Tonka JV is up 6-0 after two periods.

Posted: **Tue Dec 04, 2012 9:14 pm**

Another string showing by the Wildcats! Max Coat ta speed a bit toomuch tonight. 3-3 game in the 3rd but slipped away llate. 5-3 Minnetonka tonight.

Posted: **Tue Dec 04, 2012 9:20 pm**

Anxious to hear what Happy and AlmostHappy have to say about this one. No PP goals in the third with a more than 7:00 of PP time?

Posted: **Tue Dec 04, 2012 9:20 pm**

scorekeeper wrote:Another string showing by the Wildcats! Max Coat ta speed a bit toomuch tonight. 3-3 game in the 3rd but slipped away llate. 5-3 Minnetonka tonight.

That lead slipped away in a 3rd period where Minnetonka unfortunately had two 5 minute majors (one of which was an extremely weak call) and a minor. I believe Tonka was full strength for a total of three minutes or so in the third period. Props to their penalty kill; they did an amazing job tonight.

First two periods, Tonka looked extremely sloppy besides a few big plays by Coatta, Thie, and Justin Bader.

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Eagan @ Minnetonka, Tuesday 12/04/12

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Ramsey

Slattery

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Re: Tonka dominates

Re: Tonka dominates