The "Republicans are Coming" Factor

packerboy · Post by **packerboy** » Wed Apr 23, 2008 9:22 am

The Factor remains at +1. Livan Hernandez, or as he is now known as, Livantana pitched well enough so the Twins won.

Even if Santana had pitched last night, struck out 15, and shut out Oakland, the fact remains, the Twins won anyway as thay have in all of Livantana's starts.

Moneyball at its finest.

OGEE OGELTHORPE · Post by **OGEE OGELTHORPE** » Thu Apr 24, 2008 8:59 am

Just for fun: Slugging%

Santana .462

Kubel .431

Govs93 · Post by **Govs93** » Thu Apr 24, 2008 9:10 am

OGEE OGELTHORPE wrote:Just for fun: Slugging%

Santana .462

Kubel .431

Frank Thomas: .333

Santana's warming up! I better quick get this bet settled with ChrisK!

packerboy · Post by **packerboy** » Thu Apr 24, 2008 9:52 am

With Santana's start last night , we remain at +1 on The Factor.

He pitched well against Washington.

EREmpireStrikesBack · Thu Apr 24, 2008 11:55 am

Govs93 wrote:
OGEE OGELTHORPE wrote:Just for fun: Slugging%

Santana .462

Kubel .431
Frank Thomas: .333

Santana's warming up! I better quick get this bet settled with ChrisK!

It's a slump. Career average is in the .500's. Put the bat in his hands and watch what he does.

packerboy · Post by **packerboy** » Mon Apr 28, 2008 9:22 am

OOPS.

Livantana didnt do so good in Texas.

But, we have to wait for Johans start before changing The Factor and we have to think about what difference it would have made since the Twins scored zero.

The Factor remains at +1 until further analysis is completed.

packerboy · Post by **packerboy** » Wed Apr 30, 2008 9:23 am

Well, this is a tough one but after much deliberation, soul searching and prayer, I am moving The Factor to 0.

Johan pitched well enough so his team could scratch out a win. Livantana put them in a 7-0 hole. Even though the hitters were shut out, I am saying that we missed Johan and will move it back to even or , as some would say , all square.

The Factor will keep in mind this very close call and maybe give the nod the other way on the next close one. But hey, that's baseball.

Stay tuned to The Factor as we follow what the loss of Johan Santana means to the Twins in the way of victories.

OGEE OGELTHORPE · Post by **OGEE OGELTHORPE** » Wed Apr 30, 2008 9:40 am

Packerboy O'Reilly-The Factor always fair and balanced.

packerboy · Post by **packerboy** » Wed Apr 30, 2008 12:53 pm

Well, we try OGEE.

We dont want to play Hardball.

OGEE OGELTHORPE · Post by **OGEE OGELTHORPE** » Thu May 01, 2008 9:41 am

packerboy wrote:Well, we try OGEE.

We dont want to play Hardball.

I thought you lawyers like playing Hardball

Keep up the good work on The Factor interesting stuff.

Govs93 · Post by **Govs93** » Sat May 03, 2008 10:44 am

I'm eagerly awaiting PB notching another tick in the "L" (Livan) column.

Good out outing by the roly-poly hurler last night. The Houdini-like escape from the 2nd inning certainly helped. Getting out of a bases loaded, nobody out situation without giving up a run is usually a momentum changer, and that was the case last night.

EREmpireStrikesBack · Post by **EREmpireStrikesBack** » Sun May 04, 2008 1:11 am

Is it just me or has he gotten bigger?

packerboy · Post by **packerboy** » Sun May 04, 2008 12:16 pm

Livantana was at his finest but the Twins score 11.

The Factor must remain at 0 unless a compelling argument can be made otherwise. Even if Johan gets shelled, The Twins scoring 11 really takes who the pitcher was out of it.

EREmpireStrikesBack · Post by **EREmpireStrikesBack** » Sun May 04, 2008 1:19 pm

Should what the Twins score matter? Shouldn't it be purely how the pitcher pitches?

packerboy · Post by **packerboy** » Sun May 04, 2008 6:10 pm

Well ER, you would have to go back to the inagural post on the thread to recall what our purpose is here which is to track , as accurately as possible, the effect of Johan Santana leaving. In adition, the inagural post sets up the premise fior the thread which is: Do you pay that much money for a guy who is out there 35 times a year?

So far , as The Factor sees it, the effect is ZERO.

We have determined that Livan is in Johan's spot. How the Twins , the whole team, do when that spot comes up is what we are looking at.

So yah, if the team scores 11, who cares who pitches. In other words , Johan or not, they would have won. Like wise, if they get shutout, Johan or not, they would have lost.

packerboy · Post by **packerboy** » Mon May 05, 2008 10:26 am

Johan's performance on Sunday seals it.The Factor must remain at 0.

To quote Govs: "Interesting"

Its very early but 30 games into the season and The Factor has determined that the Twins 16-14 record would be no different if the Twins had held on to a guy scheduled to make 13 million dollars.

Santana has pitched great for the Mets. He usually struggles a bit in April and May but he has been in mid season form all year.
But still ,he would make no difference here.

Interesting, very interesting.

EREmpireStrikesBack · Mon May 05, 2008 10:54 pm

Give it time. Livan has never pitched in the AL before, when he starts facing teams for the 3rd time this season I see bad things happening.

packerboy · Post by **packerboy** » Tue May 06, 2008 11:25 am

I dont expect The Factor to end up at 0 or a + number.

But I think we need to stay tuned to see how big an impact losing a guy like Johan will have on the success of the team.

I think it will be less than a lot of people think.

Johan has to go thru the NL again too ER. Remember he was anything but invincible last year. His performance is a big part of The Factor too.

It will be interseting.

Can't Never Tried · Post by **Can't Never Tried** » Tue May 06, 2008 11:40 am

This is a good concept!
I can see this FACTOR becoming a running series in the local rags sports pages real soon now.

EREmpireStrikesBack · Post by **EREmpireStrikesBack** » Tue May 06, 2008 7:48 pm

packerboy wrote:I dont expect The Factor to end up at 0 or a + number.

But I think we need to stay tuned to see how big an impact losing a guy like Johan will have on the success of the team.

I think it will be less than a lot of people think.

Johan has to go thru the NL again too ER. Remember he was anything but invincible last year. His performance is a big part of The Factor too.

It will be interseting.

The NL is a different story pitching wise than the AL. You still get the hitter's spot and a completely different kind of ball game. Johan will do fine and I hope Livan can stay close to what he is at, but I don't see it happening.

packerboy · Post by **packerboy** » Thu May 08, 2008 8:57 am

LIVANTANA.

The Factor will remain at 0 unless Johan gets killed in his next start. Due to another great outing by Livan, the Twins still have not lost anything because of Johans departure.

Interesting.

DmanDad1980 · Post by **DmanDad1980** » Fri May 09, 2008 2:06 pm

I know you are comparing the pitching slots, but getting Cargo in the trade has made a positive difference in the comparison between the void Santana left, and the role Hernandez is filling for this team this season.

Cargo has been winning games for this squad. I like the kid. Sometimes he makes things too interesting in center, but his speed and now his bat are making it fun again...

Livantana... so far so good

packerboy · Post by **packerboy** » Fri May 09, 2008 2:47 pm

DmanDad1980 wrote:I know you are comparing the pitching slots, but getting Cargo in the trade has made a positive difference in the comparison between the void Santana left, and the role Hernandez is filling for this team this season.

Cargo has been winning games for this squad. I like the kid. Sometimes he makes things too interesting in center, but his speed and now his bat are making it fun again...

Livantana... so far so good

If we throw Cargorii into the mix, then we have to evaluate all the moves made in realtion to each other and that's impossible.

Teams evolve based on many factors and the Twins are an example of a team that has gone in many directions to get to the place where they are at now, which is a competitve team with some real upside. It obviously has taken a lot of foresight and some luck, good and bad. Ill tell yah, I wouldnt want Ryans/Smiths job.

Spending 140 million boofin dollars ( or whatever it was) on a pitcher who gets tha ball 35 times a year is something that is not an option for a team that draws 2.3 milion fans in a good year.

But be that as it may, lets see how much of an effect losing him has.

Some nimrod writer recently listed the Twins as one of the 10 worst
franchises in sports because they did not sign Hunter and Santana. He should check in with Minnhock and , of course, tune in to The Factor before filing his stories.

Govs93 · Post by **Govs93** » Mon May 12, 2008 9:07 am

Govs93 wrote: I'll tell you this though... That boy can hit the boofin' ball. He sent Francouer back to the wall yesterday to pull in a deep fly. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Johan Santana will have more homeruns this year than the Twins' starting shortstops... honestly. I'm setting the line at 2 1/2.

Uh-oh.

Twins starting SS: 1
Johan Santana: 0

packerboy · Post by **packerboy** » Mon May 12, 2008 4:20 pm

Johan's start was less than steller on Sat. but with the Twin scoring 13 for Livantana, its mute.

The Factor officially remains at 0.

This has gotten kind of screwed up. Johan just had his 8th start on Sat. and Livantana goes for #9 tonight.

Oh well, The Factor will stay tuned to the goings on and report back.