Based on Scores (sorted by team) through March 22, 2015 courtesy of USCHO.com . Previous Rankings New ratings will be posted each week, time permitting. Minimum 5 Scores vs. D1 Competition to be Ranked Maximum Goal Differential = 4 See Rankings Without Considering Goal Differential Below RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,Wisconsin-River Falls,_____________ 26 4 1, 2.1, 7.9, 9.93, 10.38 2,Adrian,____________________________ 20 2 4, 2.0, 7.5, 9.51, 8.93 3,Plattsburgh,_______________________ 26 2 2, 2.4, 6.9, 9.36, 11.06 4,Elmira,____________________________ 26 3 1, 2.3, 7.0, 9.35, 8.80 5,Middlebury,________________________ 20 5 3, 1.5, 7.8, 9.24, 8.26 6,Gustavus Adolphus,_________________ 19 5 2, 1.3, 7.7, 9.05, 8.27 7,Lake Forest,_______________________ 14 9 3, 1.0, 7.9, 8.98, 9.46 8,Wisconsin-Stevens Point,___________ 18 8 2, 0.9, 8.1, 8.94, 8.70 9,Trinity,___________________________ 18 7 2, 1.3, 7.5, 8.76, 9.03 10,St Norbert,________________________ 16 7 4, 1.0, 7.6, 8.65, 8.72 11,St Scholastica,____________________ 11 11 4, 0.5, 7.8, 8.38, 8.93 12,Amherst,___________________________ 17 5 4, 1.1, 7.3, 8.36, 7.42 13,Bethel,____________________________ 15 10 3, 0.9, 7.5, 8.36, 9.50 14,Norwich,___________________________ 22 6 3, 1.5, 6.9, 8.36, 8.54 15,Wisconsin-Superior,________________ 15 12 0, 0.3, 7.9, 8.14, 7.23 16,St Thomas,_________________________ 14 10 4, 0.4, 7.7, 8.13, 7.52 17,St Anselm,_________________________ 18 6 2, 1.5, 6.4, 7.93, 7.74 18,Holy Cross,________________________ 15 7 3, 1.2, 6.6, 7.86, 8.86 19,Concordia (Minn),__________________ 10 13 3, 0.1, 7.7, 7.80, 7.17 20,Bowdoin,___________________________ 11 10 5, 0.1, 7.6, 7.64, 7.56 21,Connecticut College,_______________ 12 10 3, 0.3, 7.4, 7.64, 6.95 22,Concordia (Wis),___________________ 12 11 5, -0.1, 7.7, 7.62, 8.47 23,Franklin Pierce,___________________ 20 6 1, 1.7, 5.7, 7.39, 7.88 24,Augsburg,__________________________ 9 11 5, -0.1, 7.4, 7.37, 7.58 25,Colby,_____________________________ 14 11 0, 0.1, 7.2, 7.31, 7.51 26,Williams,__________________________ 9 13 3, -0.3, 7.6, 7.31, 7.10 27,St Mary's,_________________________ 11 12 3, -0.3, 7.5, 7.26, 5.81 28,Hamilton,__________________________ 10 11 4, 0.1, 7.1, 7.18, 8.03 29,Oswego,____________________________ 19 7 1, 0.9, 6.2, 7.12, 6.76 30,St Catherine,______________________ 9 11 5, -0.2, 7.3, 7.10, 8.21 31,Wesleyan,__________________________ 8 14 1, -0.4, 7.3, 6.91, 6.26 32,Salve Regina,______________________ 16 9 1, 0.8, 6.1, 6.88, 6.69 33,Stevenson,_________________________ 16 8 1, 1.1, 5.5, 6.62, 6.54 34,Utica,_____________________________ 11 11 5, 0.1, 6.5, 6.61, 7.38 35,St Benedict,_______________________ 7 13 2, -1.0, 7.6, 6.55, 6.00 36,Marian,____________________________ 6 18 2, -1.4, 7.9, 6.48, 6.28 37,Castleton,_________________________ 14 12 2, -0.0, 6.4, 6.39, 6.75 38,Wisconsin-Eau Claire,______________ 5 21 1, -1.9, 8.1, 6.29, 5.74 39,Manhattanville,____________________ 10 11 5, -0.2, 6.4, 6.20, 5.50 40,Buffalo State,_____________________ 10 13 3, -0.2, 6.2, 6.07, 5.42 41,Hamline,___________________________ 6 17 2, -1.2, 7.2, 6.05, 7.56 42,Massachusetts-Boston,______________ 10 13 4, -0.4, 6.1, 5.77, 4.60 43,Southern Maine,____________________ 8 15 3, -0.9, 6.5, 5.65, 6.23 44,Sacred Heart,______________________ 7 11 3, -0.6, 6.2, 5.59, 5.98 45,Chatham,___________________________ 10 14 1, -0.5, 5.8, 5.36, 5.88 46,Neumann,___________________________ 7 16 2, -1.1, 6.4, 5.28, 5.31 47,St Olaf,___________________________ 1 21 3, -2.4, 7.6, 5.26, 4.54 48,University of New England,_________ 6 15 5, -0.8, 6.0, 5.22, 6.08 49,Cortland,__________________________ 8 16 2, -1.2, 6.3, 5.12, 5.17 50,Potsdam,___________________________ 9 15 1, -1.1, 6.2, 5.12, 4.32 51,St Michael's,______________________ 5 20 1, -1.5, 6.4, 4.90, 4.42 52,Finlandia,_________________________ 0 21 0, -3.5, 8.2, 4.75, 4.33 53,Nichols,___________________________ 8 18 0, -1.5, 6.2, 4.69, 5.12 54,Plymouth State,____________________ 3 20 2, -1.9, 6.5, 4.62, 3.36 55,William Smith,_____________________ 3 21 1, -2.2, 6.4, 4.19, 5.81 56,New England College,_______________ 1 23 1, -2.5, 6.0, 3.52, 3.12 57,Canton,____________________________ 2 22 1, -2.6, 5.9, 3.26, 2.56 Maximum Goal Differential = 1 (i.e. just considers W, L, T and schedule strength) RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,Plattsburgh,_______________________ 26 2 2, 0.8, 7.1, 7.91, 8.58 2,Elmira,____________________________ 26 3 1, 0.8, 7.1, 7.90, 7.85 3,Middlebury,________________________ 20 5 3, 0.5, 7.3, 7.87, 7.29 4,Wisconsin-River Falls,_____________ 26 4 1, 0.7, 7.1, 7.86, 8.01 5,Adrian,____________________________ 20 2 4, 0.7, 7.0, 7.72, 7.36 6,Amherst,___________________________ 17 5 4, 0.5, 7.2, 7.63, 7.21 7,Trinity,___________________________ 18 7 2, 0.4, 7.2, 7.62, 8.09 8,Gustavus Adolphus,_________________ 19 5 2, 0.5, 7.1, 7.61, 7.01 9,Wisconsin-Stevens Point,___________ 18 8 2, 0.4, 7.2, 7.57, 7.59 10,Norwich,___________________________ 22 6 3, 0.5, 7.0, 7.56, 7.66 11,St Norbert,________________________ 16 7 4, 0.3, 7.0, 7.38, 7.36 12,Lake Forest,_______________________ 14 9 3, 0.2, 7.2, 7.37, 7.82 13,Oswego,____________________________ 19 7 1, 0.4, 6.9, 7.30, 7.24 14,St Anselm,_________________________ 18 6 2, 0.5, 6.8, 7.29, 7.14 15,Bowdoin,___________________________ 11 10 5, 0.0, 7.2, 7.28, 7.29 16,Wisconsin-Superior,________________ 15 12 0, 0.1, 7.2, 7.27, 6.88 17,Colby,_____________________________ 14 11 0, 0.1, 7.1, 7.25, 7.33 18,Holy Cross,________________________ 15 7 3, 0.3, 6.9, 7.25, 7.75 19,Connecticut College,_______________ 12 10 3, 0.1, 7.2, 7.25, 6.85 20,St Thomas,_________________________ 14 10 4, 0.1, 7.1, 7.23, 7.31 21,Bethel,____________________________ 15 10 3, 0.2, 7.0, 7.19, 7.61 22,Franklin Pierce,___________________ 20 6 1, 0.5, 6.6, 7.16, 7.35 23,St Scholastica,____________________ 11 11 4, 0.0, 7.2, 7.15, 7.33 24,Williams,__________________________ 9 13 3, -0.2, 7.3, 7.11, 6.97 25,Concordia (Wis),___________________ 12 11 5, 0.0, 7.1, 7.09, 7.27 26,Hamilton,__________________________ 10 11 4, -0.0, 7.1, 7.09, 7.38 27,Salve Regina,______________________ 16 9 1, 0.3, 6.8, 7.05, 6.78 28,Castleton,_________________________ 14 12 2, 0.1, 6.9, 6.97, 7.15 29,St Mary's,_________________________ 11 12 3, -0.0, 7.0, 6.96, 6.22 30,Concordia (Minn),__________________ 10 13 3, -0.1, 7.1, 6.96, 6.78 31,Utica,_____________________________ 11 11 5, 0.0, 7.0, 6.96, 7.22 32,Wesleyan,__________________________ 8 14 1, -0.3, 7.2, 6.93, 6.37 33,Stevenson,_________________________ 16 8 1, 0.3, 6.6, 6.92, 6.86 34,Augsburg,__________________________ 9 11 5, -0.1, 7.0, 6.91, 6.69 35,St Catherine,______________________ 9 11 5, -0.1, 6.9, 6.86, 7.46 36,Manhattanville,____________________ 10 11 5, -0.0, 6.9, 6.84, 6.47 37,Buffalo State,_____________________ 10 13 3, -0.1, 6.9, 6.76, 6.41 38,St Benedict,_______________________ 7 13 2, -0.3, 7.0, 6.75, 6.47 39,Marian,____________________________ 6 18 2, -0.5, 7.1, 6.68, 6.53 40,Massachusetts-Boston,______________ 10 13 4, -0.1, 6.8, 6.68, 6.45 41,Southern Maine,____________________ 8 15 3, -0.3, 6.9, 6.66, 6.78 42,Wisconsin-Eau Claire,______________ 5 21 1, -0.6, 7.2, 6.64, 6.80 43,Potsdam,___________________________ 9 15 1, -0.2, 6.9, 6.62, 6.11 44,Chatham,___________________________ 10 14 1, -0.2, 6.8, 6.60, 6.86 45,Cortland,__________________________ 8 16 2, -0.3, 6.9, 6.59, 6.68 46,Sacred Heart,______________________ 7 11 3, -0.2, 6.8, 6.58, 6.87 47,Neumann,___________________________ 7 16 2, -0.4, 6.9, 6.55, 6.87 48,Hamline,___________________________ 6 17 2, -0.4, 6.9, 6.49, 7.10 49,Nichols,___________________________ 8 18 0, -0.4, 6.8, 6.43, 6.28 50,University of New England,_________ 6 15 5, -0.3, 6.8, 6.41, 6.74 51,St Michael's,______________________ 5 20 1, -0.6, 6.9, 6.30, 6.35 52,St Olaf,___________________________ 1 21 3, -0.8, 7.1, 6.26, 6.10 53,Plymouth State,____________________ 3 20 2, -0.7, 6.9, 6.25, 5.77 54,Finlandia,_________________________ 0 21 0, -1.0, 7.2, 6.23, 6.21 55,William Smith,_____________________ 3 21 1, -0.7, 6.9, 6.20, 6.66 56,Canton,____________________________ 2 22 1, -0.8, 6.7, 5.92, 5.80 57,New England College,_______________ 1 23 1, -0.9, 6.8, 5.90, 5.72 The program starts all teams with an equal arbitrary value and then adjusts them all recursively based on game scores until the lowest cumulative error between expected goal differentials and actual goal differentials is reached (convergence). One effect often noticed is that a team's rating can change slightly without playing due to previous opponents playing which affects their rating and their opponent's rating, etc. The Total column is in goal units and the difference in this value between any two teams is the predicted goal differential for a game played at a neutral site between those two teams. It should be noted that these rankings are an average performance value for each team for the entire season, all games are equally weighted, so a team's latest game may make up only 1/40th of a teams rating at the end of the season. Games that go to shootouts for decision are considered ties for ratings purposes. Actually, there are two different rankings listed. The first is as described above with the maximum goal differential used per game set at 4. This ordering ends up similar to CCHP, although differences do arise due to CCHP considering home ice advantage and CCHP not using a goal differential limit. The second ranking sets maximum goal differential at 1, thereby just considering whether the game was won, lost, or tied (and strength of opponent). This was done because the NCAA has indicated that it does not want to consider goal differential in the selection process. Note that the Total column in the GD=1 ranking is therefore in win percentage units rather than goal units. A rated .01 ahead of B can be interpreted as saying that if these two teams played exclusively against each other, A's predicted winning percentage is 1 percentage point higher than B's (i.e. A's predicted winning percentage vs. B would be .495, B's against A would be .505). However, since the teams do not play exclusively against the other it is actually a little bit more complex than above as teams can be ranked as high as 1.0 above their average opponent (if they were undefeated and untied) and as low as 1.0 below their average opponent (if they lost all of their games). Not surprisingly, the ordering ends up very similar to KRACH . Links to other ratings: High School Rankings for 25 States High School National Rankings New England Prep Midget Minor AAA Midget Major AAA Women's NCAA D1 USHL NAHL ACHA College Club USHSHO.com High School Ice Hockey Forums
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