Based on Scores (sorted by team) through March 10, 2013 courtesy of USCHO.com . Previous Rankings New ratings will be posted each week, time permitting. Minimum 5 Scores vs. D1 Competition to be Ranked Maximum Goal Differential = 4 See Rankings Without Considering Goal Differential Below RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,Plattsburgh,_______________________ 26 0 2, 2.9, 7.2, 10.09, 10.63 2,Gustavus Adolphus,_________________ 27 0 1, 2.2, 7.4, 9.62, 9.47 3,Elmira,____________________________ 22 5 1, 2.3, 7.2, 9.49, 10.21 4,Middlebury,________________________ 19 7 2, 1.4, 7.9, 9.36, 10.27 5,Norwich,___________________________ 22 4 3, 2.3, 7.0, 9.31, 9.27 6,Wisconsin-River Falls,_____________ 21 7 2, 1.9, 7.4, 9.24, 9.00 7,Bowdoin,___________________________ 21 5 2, 1.5, 7.7, 9.21, 8.90 8,Wisconsin-Superior,________________ 16 9 2, 1.2, 7.3, 8.48, 7.95 9,Adrian,____________________________ 20 6 1, 1.6, 6.8, 8.41, 7.78 10,St Anselm,_________________________ 19 4 4, 1.8, 6.5, 8.24, 8.78 11,St Thomas,_________________________ 14 8 2, 0.9, 7.3, 8.21, 8.21 12,Bethel,____________________________ 15 10 2, 0.7, 7.3, 8.08, 8.43 13,Amherst,___________________________ 13 11 1, 0.1, 7.9, 8.04, 8.32 14,Lake Forest,_______________________ 15 7 4, 0.9, 7.1, 7.98, 6.75 15,Manhattanville,____________________ 18 9 1, 0.9, 7.1, 7.98, 7.91 16,St Norbert,________________________ 18 10 2, 0.5, 7.4, 7.96, 8.99 17,St Scholastica,____________________ 14 10 4, 0.5, 7.2, 7.65, 8.62 18,Hamilton,__________________________ 13 11 1, 0.2, 7.4, 7.57, 6.64 19,Wisconsin-Stevens Point,___________ 12 13 3, 0.0, 7.5, 7.53, 6.60 20,Utica,_____________________________ 16 9 2, 0.7, 6.8, 7.53, 7.64 21,Connecticut College,_______________ 14 11 1, 0.3, 7.2, 7.50, 7.33 22,Holy Cross,________________________ 14 6 5, 0.8, 6.7, 7.49, 7.64 23,Concordia (Minn),__________________ 13 8 5, 0.1, 7.4, 7.44, 7.80 24,Trinity,___________________________ 13 8 4, 0.5, 6.9, 7.42, 6.95 25,St Olaf,___________________________ 11 12 2, -0.2, 7.4, 7.11, 5.89 26,Salve Regina,______________________ 15 11 0, 0.6, 6.5, 7.06, 5.99 27,St Catherine,______________________ 11 12 3, -0.0, 7.0, 6.94, 8.17 28,Wisconsin-Eau Claire,______________ 9 14 4, -0.4, 7.4, 6.94, 6.69 29,Sacred Heart,______________________ 15 4 2, 1.6, 5.3, 6.89, 5.77 30,Colby,_____________________________ 10 15 0, -0.5, 7.4, 6.86, 6.73 31,Oswego,____________________________ 12 12 1, 0.1, 6.7, 6.84, 6.09 32,Williams,__________________________ 9 15 1, -1.0, 7.6, 6.59, 6.79 33,Castleton,_________________________ 9 12 5, -0.1, 6.5, 6.42, 4.44 34,St Benedict,_______________________ 5 13 4, -0.9, 7.2, 6.30, 6.10 35,Hamline,___________________________ 5 15 5, -0.9, 7.2, 6.28, 5.55 36,New England College,_______________ 8 12 6, -0.2, 6.4, 6.24, 5.85 37,Neumann,___________________________ 10 16 1, -0.6, 6.8, 6.23, 7.26 38,St Mary's,_________________________ 7 14 2, -1.1, 7.3, 6.14, 5.93 39,Wesleyan,__________________________ 6 17 0, -1.3, 7.3, 6.07, 4.83 40,Augsburg,__________________________ 6 16 3, -1.0, 7.0, 6.03, 6.28 41,Southern Maine,____________________ 8 13 6, -0.9, 6.9, 6.00, 6.95 42,Massachusetts-Boston,______________ 9 14 4, -0.6, 6.5, 5.92, 5.67 43,Potsdam,___________________________ 10 14 2, -0.9, 6.6, 5.76, 4.85 44,Concordia (Wis),___________________ 5 17 3, -1.6, 7.2, 5.64, 5.54 45,Cortland,__________________________ 6 16 1, -1.2, 6.8, 5.63, 6.34 46,Marian,____________________________ 3 20 2, -1.5, 7.1, 5.60, 4.93 47,Buffalo State,_____________________ 6 18 1, -1.4, 6.6, 5.24, 4.64 48,Franklin Pierce,___________________ 7 14 0, -0.6, 5.5, 4.87, 5.64 49,St Michael's,______________________ 4 21 1, -1.7, 6.4, 4.76, 6.06 50,Plymouth State,____________________ 5 17 4, -1.9, 6.6, 4.72, 5.83 51,Stevenson,_________________________ 7 15 1, -1.2, 5.9, 4.65, 4.46 52,Nichols,___________________________ 3 21 1, -2.2, 6.5, 4.30, 3.81 53,Chatham,___________________________ 2 18 0, -3.0, 7.2, 4.18, 4.10 54,Finlandia,_________________________ 0 24 0, -3.7, 7.4, 3.66, 4.16 55,University of New England,_________ 1 10 0, -3.1, 5.8, 2.67, 3.86 Maximum Goal Differential = 1 (i.e. just considers W, L, T and schedule strength) RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,Plattsburgh,_______________________ 26 0 2, 0.9, 7.2, 8.08, 8.09 2,Gustavus Adolphus,_________________ 27 0 1, 1.0, 7.0, 7.94, 7.99 3,Bowdoin,___________________________ 21 5 2, 0.6, 7.3, 7.91, 8.14 4,Middlebury,________________________ 19 7 2, 0.4, 7.4, 7.85, 8.16 5,Elmira,____________________________ 22 5 1, 0.6, 7.2, 7.77, 7.83 6,Norwich,___________________________ 22 4 3, 0.6, 7.1, 7.71, 7.56 7,Amherst,___________________________ 13 11 1, 0.1, 7.4, 7.50, 7.48 8,St Anselm,_________________________ 19 4 4, 0.6, 6.9, 7.48, 7.73 9,Wisconsin-River Falls,_____________ 21 7 2, 0.5, 7.0, 7.43, 7.33 10,Manhattanville,____________________ 18 9 1, 0.3, 7.1, 7.42, 7.24 11,Trinity,___________________________ 13 8 4, 0.2, 7.1, 7.34, 6.98 12,Hamilton,__________________________ 13 11 1, 0.1, 7.3, 7.33, 7.29 13,Connecticut College,_______________ 14 11 1, 0.1, 7.2, 7.33, 7.35 14,Holy Cross,________________________ 14 6 5, 0.3, 7.0, 7.30, 7.14 15,Utica,_____________________________ 16 9 2, 0.3, 7.0, 7.30, 7.39 16,Adrian,____________________________ 20 6 1, 0.5, 6.8, 7.28, 7.13 17,St Norbert,________________________ 18 10 2, 0.3, 7.0, 7.24, 7.98 18,St Thomas,_________________________ 14 8 2, 0.3, 7.0, 7.22, 7.24 19,Concordia (Minn),__________________ 13 8 5, 0.2, 7.0, 7.19, 7.35 20,Bethel,____________________________ 15 10 2, 0.2, 7.0, 7.18, 7.13 21,Wisconsin-Superior,________________ 16 9 2, 0.3, 6.9, 7.18, 6.85 22,Lake Forest,_______________________ 15 7 4, 0.3, 6.9, 7.17, 6.63 23,Williams,__________________________ 9 15 1, -0.2, 7.3, 7.09, 7.05 24,Salve Regina,______________________ 15 11 0, 0.2, 6.9, 7.08, 6.61 25,Sacred Heart,______________________ 15 4 2, 0.5, 6.6, 7.08, 6.73 26,Colby,_____________________________ 10 15 0, -0.2, 7.3, 7.07, 7.01 27,St Scholastica,____________________ 14 10 4, 0.1, 6.9, 7.01, 7.38 28,Oswego,____________________________ 12 12 1, 0.0, 7.0, 6.99, 6.91 29,Wisconsin-Stevens Point,___________ 12 13 3, -0.0, 7.0, 6.97, 6.69 30,St Olaf,___________________________ 11 12 2, -0.0, 7.0, 6.94, 6.62 31,Southern Maine,____________________ 8 13 6, -0.2, 7.0, 6.86, 7.35 32,St Catherine,______________________ 11 12 3, -0.0, 6.9, 6.83, 7.22 33,Castleton,_________________________ 9 12 5, -0.1, 6.9, 6.82, 6.29 34,Neumann,___________________________ 10 16 1, -0.2, 7.0, 6.82, 7.31 35,Potsdam,___________________________ 10 14 2, -0.2, 7.0, 6.80, 6.72 36,Wesleyan,__________________________ 6 17 0, -0.5, 7.3, 6.77, 6.23 37,New England College,_______________ 8 12 6, -0.2, 6.9, 6.75, 6.63 38,Wisconsin-Eau Claire,______________ 9 14 4, -0.2, 6.9, 6.75, 6.52 39,Massachusetts-Boston,______________ 9 14 4, -0.2, 6.9, 6.75, 6.41 40,St Mary's,_________________________ 7 14 2, -0.3, 7.0, 6.65, 6.94 41,Cortland,__________________________ 6 16 1, -0.4, 7.0, 6.59, 6.64 42,St Benedict,_______________________ 5 13 4, -0.4, 6.9, 6.57, 6.44 43,Hamline,___________________________ 5 15 5, -0.4, 6.9, 6.52, 6.26 44,Augsburg,__________________________ 6 16 3, -0.4, 6.9, 6.48, 6.40 45,Plymouth State,____________________ 5 17 4, -0.5, 6.9, 6.47, 6.90 46,Buffalo State,_____________________ 6 18 1, -0.5, 6.9, 6.47, 6.36 47,Concordia (Wis),___________________ 5 17 3, -0.5, 6.9, 6.40, 6.45 48,Stevenson,_________________________ 7 15 1, -0.3, 6.7, 6.39, 6.22 49,Franklin Pierce,___________________ 7 14 0, -0.3, 6.6, 6.30, 6.55 50,Chatham,___________________________ 2 18 0, -0.8, 7.1, 6.30, 6.31 51,St Michael's,______________________ 4 21 1, -0.7, 6.9, 6.26, 7.10 52,Nichols,___________________________ 3 21 1, -0.7, 6.9, 6.22, 6.03 53,Marian,____________________________ 3 20 2, -0.7, 6.9, 6.17, 6.11 54,Finlandia,_________________________ 0 24 0, -1.0, 6.9, 5.91, 6.01 55,University of New England,_________ 1 10 0, -0.8, 6.7, 5.89, 6.44 The program starts all teams with an equal arbitrary value and then adjusts them all recursively based on game scores until the lowest cumulative error between expected goal differentials and actual goal differentials is reached (convergence). One effect often noticed is that a team's rating can change slightly without playing due to previous opponents playing which affects their rating and their opponent's rating, etc. The Total column is in goal units and the difference in this value between any two teams is the predicted goal differential for a game played at a neutral site between those two teams. It should be noted that these rankings are an average performance value for each team for the entire season, all games are equally weighted, so a team's latest game may make up only 1/40th of a teams rating at the end of the season. Games that go to shootouts for decision are considered ties for ratings purposes. Actually, there are two different rankings listed. The first is as described above with the maximum goal differential used per game set at 4. This ordering ends up similar to CCHP, although differences do arise due to CCHP considering home ice advantage and CCHP not using a goal differential limit. The second ranking sets maximum goal differential at 1, thereby just considering whether the game was won, lost, or tied (and strength of opponent). This was done because the NCAA has indicated that it does not want to consider goal differential in the selection process. Note that the Total column in the GD=1 ranking is therefore in win percentage units rather than goal units. A rated .01 ahead of B can be interpreted as saying that if these two teams played exclusively against each other, A's predicted winning percentage is 1 percentage point higher than B's (i.e. A's predicted winning percentage vs. B would be .495, B's against A would be .505). However, since the teams do not play exclusively against the other it is actually a little bit more complex than above as teams can be ranked as high as 1.0 above their average opponent (if they were undefeated and untied) and as low as 1.0 below their average opponent (if they lost all of their games). Not surprisingly, the ordering ends up very similar to KRACH . Links to other ratings: High School Rankings for 25 States High School National Rankings New England Prep Midget Minor AAA Midget Major AAA Women's NCAA D1 USHL NAHL ACHA College Club USHSHO.com High School Ice Hockey Forums
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