Based on Scores (sorted by team) through March 2, 2014 courtesy of USCHO.com . Previous Rankings New ratings will be posted each week, time permitting. Minimum 5 Scores vs. D1 Competition to be Ranked Maximum Goal Differential = 4 See Rankings Without Considering Goal Differential Below RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,Wisconsin-River Falls,_____________ 20 4 3, 2.0, 8.3, 10.27, 10.43 2,Plattsburgh,_______________________ 23 1 1, 2.7, 6.8, 9.51, 9.32 3,Wisconsin-Stevens Point,___________ 19 4 4, 1.0, 8.4, 9.47, 9.52 4,Lake Forest,_______________________ 15 5 3, 1.5, 7.7, 9.23, 9.27 5,Bethel,____________________________ 17 7 2, 1.4, 7.8, 9.21, 8.77 6,Gustavus Adolphus,_________________ 17 7 2, 1.1, 8.0, 9.07, 9.62 7,Wisconsin-Superior,________________ 14 7 6, 1.0, 8.0, 9.07, 8.77 8,St Norbert,________________________ 18 6 2, 1.4, 7.6, 8.98, 9.64 9,St Scholastica,____________________ 15 7 3, 1.2, 7.8, 8.97, 9.48 10,Elmira,____________________________ 20 4 1, 2.2, 6.8, 8.92, 8.54 11,Middlebury,________________________ 17 4 4, 1.3, 7.5, 8.82, 7.28 12,Norwich,___________________________ 24 3 0, 2.2, 6.6, 8.79, 8.92 13,St Thomas,_________________________ 18 5 3, 1.0, 7.8, 8.74, 8.41 14,Adrian,____________________________ 19 6 1, 1.6, 7.0, 8.62, 7.29 15,Concordia (Minn),__________________ 13 10 4, 0.3, 8.0, 8.28, 8.35 16,Amherst,___________________________ 13 7 5, 1.0, 7.2, 8.26, 7.44 17,St Anselm,_________________________ 24 3 0, 1.8, 6.1, 7.92, 7.93 18,Williams,__________________________ 13 9 3, 0.3, 7.2, 7.49, 7.65 19,Oswego,____________________________ 17 8 1, 1.2, 6.3, 7.43, 7.87 20,Trinity,___________________________ 10 8 7, 0.5, 6.9, 7.38, 6.86 21,St Mary's,_________________________ 9 15 1, -0.5, 7.8, 7.37, 6.92 22,Castleton,_________________________ 16 9 2, 1.1, 6.3, 7.36, 7.70 23,Utica,_____________________________ 17 8 1, 0.9, 6.4, 7.34, 7.20 24,Holy Cross,________________________ 15 8 1, 0.8, 6.5, 7.26, 6.78 25,Connecticut College,_______________ 11 11 3, 0.3, 6.8, 7.12, 7.65 26,Augsburg,__________________________ 9 16 0, -0.4, 7.5, 7.08, 7.45 27,Salve Regina,______________________ 16 7 4, 0.7, 6.3, 6.98, 7.26 28,Concordia (Wis),___________________ 8 16 2, -0.7, 7.6, 6.95, 7.82 29,Bowdoin,___________________________ 12 10 3, -0.2, 7.2, 6.94, 7.11 30,St Catherine,______________________ 11 14 1, -0.7, 7.6, 6.87, 5.91 31,Wisconsin-Eau Claire,______________ 4 21 2, -1.9, 8.7, 6.82, 6.31 32,Hamilton,__________________________ 8 14 2, -0.3, 7.0, 6.70, 6.72 33,Wesleyan,__________________________ 8 11 6, -0.2, 6.8, 6.64, 6.56 34,Franklin Pierce,___________________ 18 4 2, 1.3, 5.3, 6.62, 5.88 35,Colby,_____________________________ 10 13 2, -0.4, 6.9, 6.55, 7.38 36,Massachusetts-Boston,______________ 12 11 4, 0.1, 6.5, 6.53, 7.09 37,Hamline,___________________________ 7 16 2, -1.1, 7.6, 6.49, 6.24 38,St Olaf,___________________________ 6 18 1, -1.6, 8.0, 6.46, 5.64 39,Marian,____________________________ 5 20 1, -1.7, 8.1, 6.32, 5.65 40,St Benedict,_______________________ 7 18 0, -1.3, 7.6, 6.31, 7.48 41,Manhattanville,____________________ 8 14 4, -0.5, 6.7, 6.24, 5.43 42,Potsdam,___________________________ 12 10 4, -0.2, 6.2, 6.05, 5.73 43,Southern Maine,____________________ 10 15 1, -0.6, 6.2, 5.62, 4.62 44,University of New England,_________ 9 11 5, -0.4, 5.6, 5.28, 5.32 45,Neumann,___________________________ 6 17 2, -1.3, 6.5, 5.24, 5.20 46,Finlandia,_________________________ 1 21 0, -3.1, 8.2, 5.07, 5.57 47,Chatham,___________________________ 4 19 2, -1.3, 6.2, 4.97, 4.72 48,Stevenson,_________________________ 8 16 1, -0.9, 5.8, 4.87, 5.19 49,Cortland,__________________________ 4 19 2, -1.8, 6.6, 4.86, 5.64 50,Canton,____________________________ 8 14 3, -0.8, 5.7, 4.82, 5.38 51,Sacred Heart,______________________ 3 12 7, -1.0, 5.8, 4.74, 4.97 52,Buffalo State,_____________________ 3 21 2, -2.1, 6.7, 4.67, 5.30 53,St Michael's,______________________ 3 19 4, -1.5, 6.1, 4.61, 4.62 54,Plymouth State,____________________ 5 19 2, -1.5, 6.1, 4.52, 5.27 55,Nichols,___________________________ 4 21 0, -2.2, 6.5, 4.27, 3.91 56,New England College,_______________ 3 23 0, -2.4, 6.3, 3.95, 4.67 Maximum Goal Differential = 1 (i.e. just considers W, L, T and schedule strength) RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,Wisconsin-River Falls,_____________ 20 4 3, 0.6, 7.5, 8.05, 7.98 2,Wisconsin-Stevens Point,___________ 19 4 4, 0.6, 7.5, 8.03, 8.05 3,St Thomas,_________________________ 18 5 3, 0.5, 7.3, 7.78, 7.88 4,Plattsburgh,_______________________ 23 1 1, 0.9, 6.9, 7.78, 7.81 5,Gustavus Adolphus,_________________ 17 7 2, 0.4, 7.3, 7.73, 7.91 6,Middlebury,________________________ 17 4 4, 0.5, 7.2, 7.67, 6.96 7,Bethel,____________________________ 17 7 2, 0.4, 7.3, 7.66, 7.54 8,Norwich,___________________________ 24 3 0, 0.8, 6.9, 7.66, 7.75 9,Wisconsin-Superior,________________ 14 7 6, 0.3, 7.4, 7.63, 7.33 10,Lake Forest,_______________________ 15 5 3, 0.4, 7.2, 7.60, 7.92 11,St Norbert,________________________ 18 6 2, 0.5, 7.1, 7.60, 7.73 12,St Anselm,_________________________ 24 3 0, 0.8, 6.8, 7.53, 7.64 13,Elmira,____________________________ 20 4 1, 0.6, 6.9, 7.53, 7.20 14,St Scholastica,____________________ 15 7 3, 0.3, 7.2, 7.52, 7.63 15,Concordia (Minn),__________________ 13 10 4, 0.1, 7.3, 7.46, 7.40 16,Adrian,____________________________ 19 6 1, 0.5, 6.9, 7.43, 7.12 17,Amherst,___________________________ 13 7 5, 0.2, 7.1, 7.31, 7.05 18,Williams,__________________________ 13 9 3, 0.2, 7.0, 7.20, 7.26 19,Holy Cross,________________________ 15 8 1, 0.3, 6.9, 7.19, 6.78 20,Bowdoin,___________________________ 12 10 3, 0.1, 7.1, 7.14, 7.20 21,Salve Regina,______________________ 16 7 4, 0.3, 6.8, 7.14, 6.94 22,Utica,_____________________________ 17 8 1, 0.3, 6.8, 7.11, 6.88 23,St Catherine,______________________ 11 14 1, -0.1, 7.2, 7.07, 6.46 24,Trinity,___________________________ 10 8 7, 0.1, 7.0, 7.06, 6.70 25,Oswego,____________________________ 17 8 1, 0.3, 6.7, 7.06, 7.40 26,Castleton,_________________________ 16 9 2, 0.3, 6.8, 7.06, 7.35 27,Franklin Pierce,___________________ 18 4 2, 0.6, 6.5, 7.06, 6.55 28,St Mary's,_________________________ 9 15 1, -0.2, 7.3, 7.04, 7.30 29,Connecticut College,_______________ 11 11 3, 0.0, 7.0, 6.96, 7.38 30,Wisconsin-Eau Claire,______________ 4 21 2, -0.6, 7.6, 6.95, 7.05 31,Massachusetts-Boston,______________ 12 11 4, 0.0, 6.9, 6.92, 7.07 32,Augsburg,__________________________ 9 16 0, -0.3, 7.2, 6.89, 7.09 33,St Olaf,___________________________ 6 18 1, -0.5, 7.4, 6.88, 6.48 34,Colby,_____________________________ 10 13 2, -0.1, 7.0, 6.85, 7.10 35,Wesleyan,__________________________ 8 11 6, -0.1, 7.0, 6.85, 6.80 36,Concordia (Wis),___________________ 8 16 2, -0.3, 7.1, 6.84, 7.18 37,Hamline,___________________________ 7 16 2, -0.4, 7.2, 6.84, 6.72 38,Potsdam,___________________________ 12 10 4, 0.1, 6.7, 6.76, 6.38 39,Hamilton,__________________________ 8 14 2, -0.3, 7.0, 6.75, 6.77 40,St Benedict,_______________________ 7 18 0, -0.4, 7.2, 6.75, 6.95 41,Manhattanville,____________________ 8 14 4, -0.2, 7.0, 6.73, 6.42 42,Marian,____________________________ 5 20 1, -0.6, 7.3, 6.72, 6.50 43,Southern Maine,____________________ 10 15 1, -0.2, 6.8, 6.57, 5.92 44,University of New England,_________ 9 11 5, -0.1, 6.6, 6.50, 6.75 45,Neumann,___________________________ 6 17 2, -0.4, 6.8, 6.38, 6.35 46,Finlandia,_________________________ 1 21 0, -0.9, 7.3, 6.37, 6.62 47,Canton,____________________________ 8 14 3, -0.2, 6.5, 6.29, 6.58 48,Stevenson,_________________________ 8 16 1, -0.3, 6.6, 6.26, 6.26 49,Sacred Heart,______________________ 3 12 7, -0.4, 6.6, 6.24, 6.28 50,Cortland,__________________________ 4 19 2, -0.6, 6.8, 6.22, 6.67 51,Plymouth State,____________________ 5 19 2, -0.5, 6.7, 6.21, 6.50 52,Nichols,___________________________ 4 21 0, -0.7, 6.9, 6.20, 6.14 53,Buffalo State,_____________________ 3 21 2, -0.7, 6.9, 6.19, 6.36 54,St Michael's,______________________ 3 19 4, -0.6, 6.8, 6.17, 6.37 55,Chatham,___________________________ 4 19 2, -0.6, 6.7, 6.13, 5.85 56,New England College,_______________ 3 23 0, -0.8, 6.8, 6.04, 6.25 The program starts all teams with an equal arbitrary value and then adjusts them all recursively based on game scores until the lowest cumulative error between expected goal differentials and actual goal differentials is reached (convergence). One effect often noticed is that a team's rating can change slightly without playing due to previous opponents playing which affects their rating and their opponent's rating, etc. The Total column is in goal units and the difference in this value between any two teams is the predicted goal differential for a game played at a neutral site between those two teams. It should be noted that these rankings are an average performance value for each team for the entire season, all games are equally weighted, so a team's latest game may make up only 1/40th of a teams rating at the end of the season. Games that go to shootouts for decision are considered ties for ratings purposes. Actually, there are two different rankings listed. The first is as described above with the maximum goal differential used per game set at 4. This ordering ends up similar to CCHP, although differences do arise due to CCHP considering home ice advantage and CCHP not using a goal differential limit. The second ranking sets maximum goal differential at 1, thereby just considering whether the game was won, lost, or tied (and strength of opponent). This was done because the NCAA has indicated that it does not want to consider goal differential in the selection process. Note that the Total column in the GD=1 ranking is therefore in win percentage units rather than goal units. A rated .01 ahead of B can be interpreted as saying that if these two teams played exclusively against each other, A's predicted winning percentage is 1 percentage point higher than B's (i.e. A's predicted winning percentage vs. B would be .495, B's against A would be .505). However, since the teams do not play exclusively against the other it is actually a little bit more complex than above as teams can be ranked as high as 1.0 above their average opponent (if they were undefeated and untied) and as low as 1.0 below their average opponent (if they lost all of their games). Not surprisingly, the ordering ends up very similar to KRACH . Links to other ratings: High School Rankings for 25 States High School National Rankings New England Prep Midget Minor AAA Midget Major AAA Women's NCAA D1 USHL NAHL ACHA College Club USHSHO.com High School Ice Hockey Forums
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