Scores (sorted by team) through January 11, 2015 courtesy of USCHO.com . Previous Rankings New ratings will be posted each week, time permitting. Maximum Goal Differential = 4 See Rankings Without Considering Goal Differential Below RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,Harvard,___________________________ 10 2 2, 1.7, 7.1, 8.85, 8.45 2,Minnesota-Duluth,__________________ 13 7 0, 0.9, 7.9, 8.84, 8.78 3,Minnesota State,___________________ 16 4 1, 1.5, 7.2, 8.66, 8.51 4,Boston University,_________________ 12 3 4, 1.4, 7.1, 8.47, 8.63 5,Bowling Green,_____________________ 13 3 4, 1.1, 7.3, 8.43, 9.18 6,Nebraska-Omaha,____________________ 14 5 3, 0.6, 7.7, 8.37, 7.08 7,Miami,_____________________________ 14 8 0, 0.8, 7.5, 8.35, 7.83 8,Massachusetts-Lowell,______________ 14 4 3, 1.2, 7.1, 8.32, 8.52 9,Michigan Tech,_____________________ 15 6 1, 1.2, 7.1, 8.29, 7.27 10,Minnesota,_________________________ 10 7 1, 0.7, 7.5, 8.24, 6.64 11,North Dakota,______________________ 14 5 2, 0.9, 7.3, 8.21, 7.96 12,Vermont,___________________________ 15 5 1, 1.1, 6.8, 7.97, 7.58 13,Yale,______________________________ 9 4 2, 0.8, 7.2, 7.95, 8.48 14,Colgate,___________________________ 13 6 1, 1.0, 6.9, 7.93, 8.71 15,Denver,____________________________ 11 7 1, 0.6, 7.3, 7.89, 7.19 16,Boston College,____________________ 12 7 2, 0.7, 7.2, 7.87, 8.92 17,St Cloud State,____________________ 9 10 1, -0.2, 8.1, 7.86, 7.86 18,Michigan,__________________________ 12 7 0, 0.6, 7.3, 7.86, 8.10 19,Bemidji State,_____________________ 7 10 3, 0.1, 7.6, 7.73, 8.47 20,Providence,________________________ 14 7 1, 0.6, 7.1, 7.72, 7.21 21,Union,_____________________________ 11 8 2, 0.9, 6.8, 7.69, 7.30 22,Western Michigan,__________________ 9 9 2, 0.3, 7.3, 7.67, 8.01 23,Quinnipiac,________________________ 15 6 1, 0.6, 7.0, 7.61, 8.16 24,Merrimack,_________________________ 11 6 2, 0.5, 7.0, 7.58, 7.66 25,St Lawrence,_______________________ 9 10 2, 0.4, 7.0, 7.43, 6.59 26,Penn State,________________________ 10 7 2, 0.5, 6.9, 7.42, 6.71 27,New Hampshire,_____________________ 6 11 2, 0.1, 7.4, 7.40, 7.94 28,Dartmouth,_________________________ 6 6 3, 0.2, 7.2, 7.38, 7.28 29,Alaska,____________________________ 12 9 1, 0.2, 7.2, 7.35, 8.55 30,Cornell,___________________________ 6 7 2, 0.1, 7.2, 7.30, 6.16 31,Northern Michigan,_________________ 9 6 5, 0.1, 7.1, 7.23, 7.93 32,Ferris State,______________________ 11 11 1, 0.2, 6.8, 7.02, 6.49 33,Ohio State,________________________ 7 10 2, -0.4, 7.4, 6.99, 6.51 34,Robert Morris,_____________________ 13 5 4, 1.1, 5.9, 6.97, 6.46 35,Notre Dame,________________________ 9 11 2, -0.1, 7.0, 6.89, 7.16 36,Michigan State,____________________ 7 10 1, -0.2, 7.1, 6.88, 7.43 37,Northeastern,______________________ 7 11 3, -0.7, 7.6, 6.88, 7.91 38,Connecticut,_______________________ 7 10 4, -0.4, 7.2, 6.87, 6.80 39,Clarkson,__________________________ 7 10 4, -0.3, 7.1, 6.77, 6.28 40,Mercyhurst,________________________ 10 6 3, 0.3, 6.2, 6.42, 7.49 41,Maine,_____________________________ 7 14 1, -0.8, 7.1, 6.29, 6.82 42,Bentley,___________________________ 10 9 2, 0.3, 6.0, 6.25, 6.61 43,Alaska-Anchorage,__________________ 5 11 4, -0.5, 6.7, 6.23, 5.49 44,Rensselaer,________________________ 7 16 1, -1.4, 7.4, 6.06, 6.30 45,RIT,_______________________________ 6 10 4, -0.1, 6.2, 6.02, 5.32 46,Holy Cross,________________________ 8 8 5, 0.2, 5.8, 6.00, 5.39 47,Colorado College,__________________ 4 13 1, -1.6, 7.5, 5.92, 7.33 48,Wisconsin,_________________________ 2 12 2, -1.6, 7.5, 5.92, 6.59 49,Alabama-Huntsville,________________ 5 16 3, -1.3, 7.2, 5.83, 6.06 50,Massachusetts,_____________________ 6 15 0, -1.2, 7.0, 5.75, 6.11 51,Brown,_____________________________ 4 11 0, -1.6, 7.2, 5.61, 7.05 52,Canisius,__________________________ 8 8 5, -0.2, 5.8, 5.60, 5.29 53,Air Force,_________________________ 7 13 3, -0.9, 6.3, 5.39, 4.47 54,Lake Superior,_____________________ 4 19 1, -2.0, 7.4, 5.37, 6.11 55,Princeton,_________________________ 2 14 1, -2.1, 7.4, 5.31, 4.93 56,Sacred Heart,______________________ 6 13 3, -1.0, 6.3, 5.25, 4.82 57,American International,____________ 3 14 5, -1.2, 6.1, 4.87, 5.23 58,Army,______________________________ 5 14 2, -1.2, 5.9, 4.68, 4.49 59,Niagara,___________________________ 3 15 2, -1.6, 5.9, 4.29, 4.46 Maximum Goal Differential = 1 (i.e. just considers W, L, T and schedule strength) RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,Minnesota State,___________________ 16 4 1, 0.6, 7.1, 7.70, 7.57 2,Nebraska-Omaha,____________________ 14 5 3, 0.4, 7.3, 7.67, 7.41 3,Minnesota-Duluth,__________________ 13 7 0, 0.3, 7.4, 7.67, 7.54 4,Bowling Green,_____________________ 13 3 4, 0.5, 7.1, 7.64, 7.71 5,Harvard,___________________________ 10 2 2, 0.6, 7.1, 7.63, 7.69 6,North Dakota,______________________ 14 5 2, 0.4, 7.1, 7.58, 7.51 7,Boston University,_________________ 12 3 4, 0.5, 7.0, 7.51, 7.46 8,Miami,_____________________________ 14 8 0, 0.3, 7.2, 7.50, 7.25 9,Massachusetts-Lowell,______________ 14 4 3, 0.5, 7.0, 7.49, 7.43 10,Michigan Tech,_____________________ 15 6 1, 0.4, 7.0, 7.43, 6.88 11,Quinnipiac,________________________ 15 6 1, 0.4, 7.0, 7.41, 7.59 12,Providence,________________________ 14 7 1, 0.3, 7.1, 7.40, 7.39 13,Vermont,___________________________ 15 5 1, 0.5, 6.9, 7.40, 7.25 14,Yale,______________________________ 9 4 2, 0.3, 7.0, 7.35, 7.34 15,Denver,____________________________ 11 7 1, 0.2, 7.1, 7.35, 6.91 16,Colgate,___________________________ 13 6 1, 0.3, 7.0, 7.35, 7.68 17,St Cloud State,____________________ 9 10 1, -0.1, 7.4, 7.33, 7.70 18,Minnesota,_________________________ 10 7 1, 0.2, 7.2, 7.32, 6.64 19,Michigan,__________________________ 12 7 0, 0.3, 7.0, 7.30, 7.83 20,Merrimack,_________________________ 11 6 2, 0.3, 7.0, 7.30, 7.34 21,Boston College,____________________ 12 7 2, 0.2, 7.0, 7.26, 7.80 22,Alaska,____________________________ 12 9 1, 0.1, 7.1, 7.22, 7.54 23,Northern Michigan,_________________ 9 6 5, 0.1, 7.0, 7.18, 7.47 24,Western Michigan,__________________ 9 9 2, 0.0, 7.1, 7.15, 7.39 25,Penn State,________________________ 10 7 2, 0.2, 7.0, 7.12, 6.75 26,Bemidji State,_____________________ 7 10 3, -0.1, 7.3, 7.11, 7.44 27,Union,_____________________________ 11 8 2, 0.1, 6.9, 7.09, 6.95 28,Dartmouth,_________________________ 6 6 3, 0.0, 7.1, 7.06, 6.86 29,Cornell,___________________________ 6 7 2, -0.1, 7.1, 7.04, 6.64 30,Ohio State,________________________ 7 10 2, -0.2, 7.2, 7.03, 7.08 31,Northeastern,______________________ 7 11 3, -0.2, 7.2, 7.01, 7.36 32,Robert Morris,_____________________ 13 5 4, 0.4, 6.6, 6.98, 6.81 33,Connecticut,_______________________ 7 10 4, -0.1, 7.1, 6.97, 7.09 34,St Lawrence,_______________________ 9 10 2, -0.0, 7.0, 6.97, 6.76 35,Mercyhurst,________________________ 10 6 3, 0.2, 6.7, 6.94, 7.17 36,Notre Dame,________________________ 9 11 2, -0.1, 7.0, 6.91, 6.78 37,Ferris State,______________________ 11 11 1, 0.0, 6.9, 6.89, 6.80 38,Clarkson,__________________________ 7 10 4, -0.1, 7.0, 6.88, 6.66 39,New Hampshire,_____________________ 6 11 2, -0.3, 7.1, 6.86, 7.14 40,Michigan State,____________________ 7 10 1, -0.2, 7.0, 6.81, 7.14 41,Rensselaer,________________________ 7 16 1, -0.4, 7.1, 6.77, 6.69 42,Bentley,___________________________ 10 9 2, 0.0, 6.7, 6.70, 6.94 43,Colorado College,__________________ 4 13 1, -0.5, 7.2, 6.69, 6.82 44,Maine,_____________________________ 7 14 1, -0.3, 7.0, 6.66, 6.82 45,Alabama-Huntsville,________________ 5 16 3, -0.5, 7.1, 6.63, 7.01 46,Brown,_____________________________ 4 11 0, -0.5, 7.1, 6.60, 7.04 47,Wisconsin,_________________________ 2 12 2, -0.6, 7.2, 6.58, 7.00 48,Alaska-Anchorage,__________________ 5 11 4, -0.3, 6.9, 6.57, 6.03 49,Holy Cross,________________________ 8 8 5, 0.0, 6.6, 6.57, 6.28 50,Massachusetts,_____________________ 6 15 0, -0.4, 7.0, 6.56, 6.64 51,Canisius,__________________________ 8 8 5, 0.0, 6.5, 6.55, 6.52 52,Lake Superior,_____________________ 4 19 1, -0.6, 7.1, 6.52, 6.85 53,Air Force,_________________________ 7 13 3, -0.3, 6.7, 6.48, 6.33 54,RIT,_______________________________ 6 10 4, -0.2, 6.7, 6.47, 6.42 55,Princeton,_________________________ 2 14 1, -0.7, 7.1, 6.44, 6.27 56,Sacred Heart,______________________ 6 13 3, -0.3, 6.7, 6.41, 6.19 57,Army,______________________________ 5 14 2, -0.4, 6.6, 6.21, 6.03 58,American International,____________ 3 14 5, -0.5, 6.6, 6.15, 6.05 59,Niagara,___________________________ 3 15 2, -0.6, 6.6, 5.98, 5.85 The program starts all teams with an equal arbitrary value and then adjusts them all recursively based on game scores until the lowest cumulative error between expected goal differentials and actual goal differentials is reached (convergence). One effect often noticed is that a team's rating can change slightly without playing due to previous opponents playing which affects their rating and their opponent's rating, etc. The Total column is in goal units and the difference in this value between any two teams is the predicted goal differential for a game played at a neutral site between those two teams. It should be noted that these rankings are an average performance value for each team for the entire season, all games are equally weighted, so a team's latest game may make up only 1/40th of a teams rating at the end of the season. Games that go to shootouts for decision are considered ties for ratings purposes. Actually, there are two different rankings listed. The first is as described above with the maximum goal differential used per game set at 4. This ordering ends up similar to CCHP, although differences do arise due to CCHP considering home ice advantage and CCHP not using a goal differential limit. The second ranking sets maximum goal differential at 1, thereby just considering whether the game was won, lost, or tied (and strength of opponent). This was done because the NCAA has indicated that it does not want to consider goal differential in the selection process. Note that the Total column in the GD=1 ranking is therefore in win percentage units rather than goal units. A rated .01 ahead of B can be interpreted as saying that if these two teams played exclusively against each other, A's predicted winning percentage is 1 percentage point higher than B's (i.e. A's predicted winning percentage vs. B would be .495, B's against A would be .505). However, since the teams do not play exclusively against the other it is actually a little bit more complex than above as teams can be ranked as high as 1.0 above their average opponent (if they were undefeated and untied) and as low as 1.0 below their average opponent (if they lost all of their games). Not surprisingly, the ordering ends up very similar to KRACH . Links to other ratings: High School Rankings for 25 States High School National Rankings New England Prep Midget Minor AAA Midget Major AAA Men's NCAA D1 USHL NAHL ACHA College Club USHSHO.com High School Ice Hockey Forums
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