NAHL Junior A Hockey Rankings 2007-2008

Scores that ratings are based upon, sorted by team. Scores through March 30, 2008 Previous Week's Rankings  New ratings will be posted each week, time permitting.

Maximum Goal Differential = 7 See Rankings Without Considering Goal Differential Below RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,St. Louis,_________________________ 47 11 0, 1.7, 7.5, 9.20, 9.20 2,Mahoning Valley,___________________ 36 22 0, 0.9, 7.8, 8.74, 9.62 3,Topeka,____________________________ 39 19 0, 1.7, 6.5, 8.17, 10.12 4,Alpena,____________________________ 30 28 0, 0.1, 7.8, 7.94, 7.74 5,USNTDP,____________________________ 28 30 0, -0.1, 8.0, 7.89, 8.00 6,North Iowa,________________________ 38 20 0, 1.0, 6.7, 7.69, 6.71 7,Traverse City,_____________________ 23 35 0, -0.5, 7.9, 7.45, 6.90 8,Springfield,_______________________ 27 31 0, 0.0, 7.3, 7.29, 6.72 9,Wichita Falls,_____________________ 38 20 0, 0.7, 6.5, 7.23, 4.82 10,Marquette,_________________________ 26 32 0, -0.5, 7.7, 7.17, 5.72 11,Fairbanks,_________________________ 38 19 0, 0.8, 6.0, 6.80, 8.02 12,Fargo-Moorhead,____________________ 25 33 0, 0.0, 6.6, 6.59, 6.90 13,Southern Minnesota,________________ 29 29 0, -0.4, 6.9, 6.47, 4.84 14,Alexandria,________________________ 29 29 0, -0.0, 6.5, 6.44, 9.20 15,Texas,_____________________________ 20 38 0, -0.6, 6.8, 6.20, 4.95 16,Bismarck,__________________________ 20 38 0, -1.1, 6.6, 5.46, 4.59 17,Alaska,____________________________ 16 42 0, -1.9, 6.5, 4.63, 3.13 18,Kenai River,_______________________ 12 45 0, -1.8, 6.4, 4.60, 5.26 Maximum Goal Differential = 1 (i.e. just considers W, L, T and schedule strength) RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,St. Louis,_________________________ 47 11 0, 0.6, 7.1, 7.75, 7.74 2,Mahoning Valley,___________________ 36 22 0, 0.2, 7.2, 7.48, 7.83 3,Alpena,____________________________ 30 28 0, 0.0, 7.2, 7.27, 7.08 4,USNTDP,____________________________ 28 30 0, -0.0, 7.3, 7.26, 7.17 5,Topeka,____________________________ 39 19 0, 0.3, 6.9, 7.21, 7.57 6,North Iowa,________________________ 38 20 0, 0.3, 6.9, 7.20, 6.63 7,Wichita Falls,_____________________ 38 20 0, 0.3, 6.8, 7.15, 6.14 8,Marquette,_________________________ 26 32 0, -0.1, 7.2, 7.08, 6.19 9,Traverse City,_____________________ 23 35 0, -0.2, 7.3, 7.07, 7.22 10,Springfield,_______________________ 27 31 0, -0.1, 7.1, 7.03, 6.83 11,Fairbanks,_________________________ 38 19 0, 0.3, 6.7, 7.03, 6.96 12,Southern Minnesota,________________ 29 29 0, 0.0, 6.9, 6.94, 6.83 13,Alexandria,________________________ 29 29 0, 0.0, 6.8, 6.85, 7.50 14,Fargo-Moorhead,____________________ 25 33 0, -0.1, 6.9, 6.75, 6.75 15,Texas,_____________________________ 20 38 0, -0.3, 7.0, 6.66, 6.29 16,Bismarck,__________________________ 20 38 0, -0.3, 6.9, 6.56, 6.74 17,Alaska,____________________________ 16 42 0, -0.4, 6.9, 6.41, 6.00 18,Kenai River,_______________________ 12 45 0, -0.6, 6.9, 6.28, 6.76 The program starts all teams with an equal arbitrary value and then adjusts them all recursively based on game scores until the lowest cumulative error between expected goal differentials and actual goal differentials is reached (convergence). One effect often noticed is that a team's rating can change slightly without playing due to previous opponents playing which affects their rating and their opponent's rating, etc. The Total column is in goal units and the difference in this value between any two teams is the predicted goal differential for a game played at a neutral site between those two teams. It should be noted that these rankings are an average performance value for each team for the entire season, all games are equally weighted, so a team's latest game may make up only 1/40th of a teams rating at the end of the season. Actually, there are two different rankings listed below. The first is as described above with the maximum goal differential used per game set at 7. This ordering ends up similar to CCHP, although differences do arise due to CCHP considering home ice advantage and CCHP not using a goal differential limit. The second ranking sets maximum goal differential at 1, thereby just considering whether the game was won, lost, or tied (and strength of opponent). Note that the Total column in the GD=1 ranking is therefore in win percentage units rather than goal units. A rated .01 ahead of B can be interpreted as saying that if these two teams played exclusively against each other, A's predicted winning percentage is 1 percentage point higher than B's (i.e. A's predicted winning percentage vs. B would be .495, B's against A would be .505). However, since the teams do not play exclusively against the other it is actually a little bit more complex than above as teams can be ranked as high as 1.0 above their average opponent (if they were undefeated and untied) and as low as 1.0 below their average opponent (if they lost all of their games). Not surprisingly, the ordering ends up very similar to KRACH . Links to other ratings: High School Rankings for 25 States  High School National Rankings  New England Prep  Midget Minor AAA  Midget Major AAA  Men's NCAA D1  USHL  NAHL  ACHA College Club

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