AA Rankings for 12/17/2023

[karl(east)]

Thanks for your patience after another weekend on the road for me. I should be back to the regular schedule for the rest of the season!

1. Minnetonka (6-0)
-The Skippers handled Moorhead to stay steady at the top, and there isn’t much else new to say here. They have two more respectable opponents this week, including a Grand Rapids team that has shown some upset capability in back and a rising Shakopee team looking to show it’s in the picture in 2AA.
This week: Thurs vs. Grand Rapids, Sat at #10 Shakopee

2. Wayzata (7-0)
-The Trojans got pushed by Benilde but passed that test in a key section game, and they handled Centennial as well, thereby keeping pace with Minnetonka. While their two opponents this week aren’t in the top 15, they both have enough talent to stick around make things interesting if the Trojans aren’t careful.
This week: Thurs vs. Stillwater, Fri at Eden Prairie

3. Edina (6-1)
-The Hornets methodically pushed through their annual holiday tournament and are back on track after the early loss to Benilde. The week ahead is a relative break before they dive back into another run of three games in three days after Christmas.
This week: Tues vs. Chaska

4. Chanhassen (5-3)
-The Storm is rolling in: with a shutout of St. Thomas and a whipping of Rogers, this group is right back into the top five and proving it belongs near the top in spite of those November lumps they took. Eastview this week could be a trap if they’re not careful, but they are well-positioned to keep proving their strength.
This week: Tues vs. Eastview, Thurs at St. Louis Park

5. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (5-1)
-The Red Knights couldn’t keep pace with Wayzata across three periods, but a competitive showing reinforces their status as a top ten team and a serious threat in 6AA. They’ve positioned themselves well for the 2-seed in 6AA, which sometimes in recent past has been out of reach by this point in the season. If they keep playing the way they have, this week’s contest shouldn’t strain them much.
This week: Tues vs. Blake

6. Hill-Murray (4-1-1)
-Logged a quality win over Mahtomedi and handled Hastings in conference action this past week, which does little to change their situation. Their great rivalry now looms as they look to assert their status atop 4AA.
This week: Sat vs. #11 White Bear Lake

7. Rogers (6-1-1)
-The Royals took a beating from Chanhassen on Saturday, which serves as a reality check. I don’t want to overreact to one loss in which the shots were nonetheless close, but Maple Grove’s eyes likely perked up at that result. They’ll aim to bounce back in their only game this week, which comes against Buffalo.
This week: Fri at Buffalo

8. Rosemount (7-1)
-The Irish just keep winning. It hasn’t been elite competition these past few weeks, but they are getting the job done with the comfort one would expect out of a top ten team, and they have those early quality wins. Hermantown will make for a great test this coming week.
This week: Tues at Farmington, Fri at Hermantown

9. Maple Grove (5-2)
-Convincingly defeated Coon Rapids in their only action this past week; two clunky results for the Cardinals over the past two weeks leave some question as to just how impressive that result is, but the Crimson hold steady in this part of the rankings. They enjoy a week off before hosting their annual holiday tournament.
This week: Idle

10. Shakopee (7-1-1)
-A week after hanging 11 points on Apple Valley/Burnsville, the Sabers needed to overcome a three-goal deficit to muster an overtime win over that very same team. In some ways it looks like a classic trap game, as a young, new contender coming off a statement tie with Rogers ran into a surprise on the road. So for now, no harm and no foul, but it’s worth watching to see if they repeat that. The week ahead is a big one, as they face one of their rivals for conference supremacy before colliding with number one.
This week: Thurs vs. Lakeville South, Sat vs. #1 Minnetonka

11. White Bear Lake (5-1)
-The Bears had little trouble dispatching of East Ridge and are strengthening their credentials as a potential top ten team. It all builds toward the big section rivalry on Saturday, though their first two opponents this week aren’t ones they can look past.
This week: Tues vs. Champlin Park, Thurs at Roseville, Sat at #6 Hill-Murray

12. Holy Family (4-0-1)
-The Fire burned through a couple of conference opponents, but missed out on a chance to prove top ten status when they tied up-and-down St. Thomas Academy. Eastview gives them another capable opponent against whom to measure themselves.
This week: Thurs vs. Eastview

13. Andover (4-4)
-The Huskies had a positive week, beating a decent Champlin team before collecting a quality win over Moorhead. This team isn’t going to run with Minnetonka or Wayzata, but they can give just about anyone else a pretty good game. They can make a statement about the state of 7AA when they host Duluth East on Tuesday.
This week: Tues vs. Duluth East

14. St. Thomas Academy (3-3-1)
-Tying Holy Family is a step in the right direction for the Cadets, though a shutout loss to Chanhassen shows they have some ways to go to be a real front-end contender. The week ahead is an important one, with the Centennial game liable to affect this ranking and a fight for positioning in 3AA after that.
This week: Tues at Centennial, Fri vs. #15 Cretin-Derham Hall

15. Cretin-Derham Hall (2-2)
-The Raiders took care of Forest Lake, which does little to change their position here. This week’s meeting with St. Thomas, so often the battle for the top in this section recently, feels more unsettled this season, with Rosemount and Eastview already crashing the 3AA party. Can the Raiders reassert their early higher ranking? First, though, they have to go through respectable Mounds View.
This week: Thurs at Mounds View, Fri at #14 St. Thomas Academy

The Next Ten

Lakeville South (5-0)
-A nice win over Eastview has the Cougars moving up; they haven’t played any top 15 teams yet, but that will change this week when they face Shakopee. They’re winning the games they need to win; now we’ll see what they can make of some serious talent.

Holy Angels (6-1)
-Marching along against competition that doesn’t register much here. That will continue for one more week before they hit the meat of their schedule.

Centennial (4-2-1)
-The Cougars held up well enough against Wayzata, so that loss is not a knock given the Trojans’ strength so far. They’ve got a big week ahead of them that includes a chance at a top 15 win against St. Thomas and section rival Champlin Park.

Eastview (5-3)
-Lost to Lakeville South, but none of the losses are bad and they have that St. Thomas win to their name. Between Chanhassen, Holy Family, and a rematch with South, they are in for a serious series of tests this coming week.

Sartell (7-0-1)
-Undefeated, and with a tie to Moorhead? Welcome to the AA top 25 for the first time, Sartell! Some of the margins of victory leave some lingering questions, but for now, this team is in the picture. They’ve got a section game with Brainerd this week.

Moorhead (3-5-1)
-The Spuds played decently in losses to Andover and Minnetonka, but the losses are nonetheless mounting, and the Sartell tie opens the door wider than it had been in 8AA. Another section opponent looms this week in Elk River.

Roseau (5-2)
-Took care of Buffalo 5-2 in their only action this past week. Like their fellow 8AA teams clumped here in the rankings, they have a section game this week, theirs coming against Bemidji.

Grand Rapids (6-4)
-A two-win weekend in Edina is a plus for the Thunderhawks, who are showing they can at least lock things down and be a pest against mid-tier opposition. That is enough to be a serious contender in 7AA. We’ll see how their defense and goaltending can hold up against Minnetonka on Thursday.

Rock Ridge (6-1)
-Momentum continues to build in the northeast, where the Wolverines got a win over a good Cathedral team that would be in a two-class top 25. They have yet to face a serious AA test, but all the signs are pretty good so far. Superior and Minneapolis are up next.

Eden Prairie (3-3)
-The loss to Grand Rapids is a rankings setback for the Eagles, though they remain pretty competitive with good teams, and I’d guess they’ll rise. The week ahead is a big one, with section rival Prior Lake and Lake Conference rival Wayzata both on tap.

And now, our first in-season look at sections, which will be a bi-weekly feature going forward.

1AA
16 Lakeville South
Rochester Century/John Marshall
Lakeville North
New Prague
-South was pretty convincing in the first of the battles of the Lakevilles, so they are the clear frontrunner at the moment. That leaves the question of where the southerners stand. I’m putting Century/John Marshall at 2 for now because their only loss is to a good Class A team in Northfield, though they have yet to play anything resembling a AA contender. Similarly, New Prague has a nice record, but a loss to Hastings doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence that the Trojans can run with South

2AA
1 Minnetonka
4 Chanhassen
10 Shakopee
12 Holy Family
25 Eden Prairie
-No great surprises early, with the two heavyweights battling to overtime in their regular season meeting. There are no games between Eden Prairie, Holy Family, and Shakopee this season, so they will be jockeying for position based on body of work and results against common opponents like Prior Lake, who plays all of them. (The Fire already handled the Lakers comfortably, while the other two dates are upcoming.) Minnetonka’s meeting with Shakopee this week will be instructive, too.

3AA
8 Rosemount
15 Cretin-Derham Hall
19 Eastview
14 St. Thomas Academy
-The first two sections were fairly predictable, but this one has been lively in the early going. Neither Cretin nor St. Thomas, the two preseason frontrunners, has seized much initiative yet, while it has been Rosemount riding into the breach and looking like a frontline contender. Eastview is right there as well with a win over St. Thomas to its name, which could be a real boost come seeding time. The Cretin-St. Thomas game this week will give some clarity.

4AA
6 Hill-Murray
11 White Bear Lake
Stillwater
Gentry Academy
-Like 3AA, this section slots into the intriguing middle, not on the level of the 2AA or 6AA slugfests but safely ahead of the sections like 1AA or 7AA that seem highly unlikely to produce a seeded team at State. Hill remains the default frontrunner but does not appear to be on the level of the teams ahead of it in the rankings, while a chase pack grows and looms. As so often is the case, the winner of this week’s White Bear-Hill game will have frontrunner status for the top seed. Stillwater and Gentry, two teams just outside the top 25, loom here as possible contenders.

5AA
7 Rogers
9 Maple Grove
18 Centennial
Champlin Park
-Nothing major has shifted at the top here, in spite of Rogers’ bad loss this past week. Maybe the biggest surprise has been Coon Rapids’ struggles; a loss to Champlin has the Cardinals out of top four positioning at the moment, and they didn’t look very competitive with Maple Grove, either. Centennial and Champlin will scrap for 3-seed positioning this week.

6AA
2 Wayzata
3 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
5 Edina
17 Holy Angels
-Between Benilde’s win over Edina and loss to Wayzata, this one is already taking shape. The Trojans are sitting pretty for the top seed, and probably need to lose to Edina twice to lose it; Edina will need two wins over Wayzata, or one win and some help, to escape the 3-spot. With all due respect to the likely 4- and 5-seeds, that matters a lot here.

7AA
13 Andover
23 Grand Rapids
24 Rock Ridge
Duluth East
-The records here, Rock Ridge’s softer schedule excepted, aren’t exceptional, but this section’s top few teams have at least generally hung around against opposition outside of the very top. Rapids has the early edge over Duluth East after a win in the season’s first full week, and the Hounds could face a tough road in section seeding if they can’t do anything with Andover this week. The Huskies, meanwhile, will look to set the pace in a section where, despite some interesting teams, they will be the frontrunner until someone beats them.

8AA
20 Sartell
21 Moorhead
22 Roseau
Buffalo
-The Spuds have looked vulnerable in the early going, beating Roseau 1-0 and tying Sartell, so suddenly this is an open race, with lots of remaining section games that could reorient things. Buffalo, with wins over Elk River and Bemidji, has the early track for the 4-seed. Expect plenty of movement as we continue here.