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Guesses for the seeding at state?
A:
1 - Hermantown
2/3- SCC and Warroad (could go either way)
4 - Mahtomedi (if they win)
5 - Delano
Monticello moves into the 5 spot if Mahtomedi gets upset

AA:
1 - Andover
2 - Eden Prairie
3 - Blake
4 - Moorhead
5 - Hill-Murray (if they win)
A Hill loss and who knows for the 5th seed
And 2 thru 4 aren't locks: could see them being inter-changed

Joe2015 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 27, 2020 9:50 pm Guesses for the seeding at state?
A:
1 - Hermantown
2/3- SCC and Warroad (could go either way)
4 - Mahtomedi (if they win)
5 - Delano
Monticello moves into the 5 spot if Mahtomedi gets upset

AA:
1 - Andover
2 - Eden Prairie
3 - Blake
4 - Moorhead
5 - Hill-Murray (if they win)
A Hill loss and who knows for the 5th seed
And 2 thru 4 aren't locks: could see them being inter-changed

I think a Hill win will make seeding really interesting. I know the final rankings, Hill was the team ranked the lowest out of these 5, but they beat Blake and Moorhead. I’m not saying they should be ahead of these 2 teams, but there could be a solid argument to put them at 3, 4, or 5. A WBL win tomorrow night solidified the top 4.

Joe2015 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 27, 2020 9:50 pm AA:
1 - Andover
2 - Eden Prairie
3 - Blake
4 - Moorhead
5 - Hill-Murray (if they win)
A Hill loss and who knows for the 5th seed
And 2 thru 4 aren't locks: could see them being inter-changed

Being that Blake and EP are close together in the rankings and with Blake’s head to head win (tiebreaker), I’d give them the 2 seed over EP.

Although I don’t know if it’ll happen I think Warroad has a good argument for #1 seed in the A tournament. 3 wins against a top ranked EGF, and a head to head win over SCC along with the best overall record in the state at 26-2. Not saying it’ll happen but I think that shouldn’t be overlooked. I think they definitely should get the #2 if the #1 goes to Hermantown.

1. Andover
2. Blake
3. EP
4. Moorhead
5. Hill if they win Lakeville South if they don't

Based on the last few years, the seeding doesn’t follow who beat who. It’s usually most dangerous team ranked highest. Andover will be 1, EP 2, Blake 3. Those spots are locked.

TheNightman wrote: ↑Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:05 pm 1. Andover
2. Blake
3. EP
4. Moorhead
5. Hill if they win Lakeville South if they don't

I have seen South twice in a week, they are lucky to even make it. I was high on them all year but after the playoff run the South Suburban had and that South struggled mightily with Century and Hastings I can’t see them getting a seed.

I agree with Laserblue, how you are playing now matters for state seeding, where I think sections is more of a how your entire season has been.

I think the top 3 are locks but not so sure in what order, Moorhead should be 4 but could be 5 if Hill Murray wins, not that it matters.

LASERBLUE135 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:09 pm Based on the last few years, the seeding doesn’t follow who beat who. It’s usually most dangerous team ranked highest. Andover will be 1, EP 2, Blake 3. Those spots are locked.

Recent evidence would suggest this, yes. (And Eden Prairie, incidentally, seems to be the one that gets the benefit of the doubt more often than not.) Even though Hill beat Moorhead I'd argue the Spuds' season was solid enough to claim the 4-seed if Hill wins, though those two would still play in the quarters. If Hill loses it gets tough; 5 on paper should go to South but as others have noted they weren't exactly compelling in sections.

Class A is a little more cut and dry on the transitive property side: Warroad beat SCC who tied Hermantown, so I'd argue the Warriors do have a very good case for the top seed. We'll see if Hermantown's reputation is enough to claim it, though. Delano/Mahtomedi (assuming the Zephyrs win tomorrow) should be a lock for the nightcap, though Monticello will be one of the better unseeded A teams in recent memory.

Hermantown losing late in the season to Grand Rapids, who lost to Elk River, and to South who struggled against teams ranked fairly low don’t help the Hawks case for #1 a whole lot.

kpryan88 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 27, 2020 9:55 pm

Joe2015 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 27, 2020 9:50 pm Guesses for the seeding at state?
A:
1 - Hermantown
2/3- SCC and Warroad (could go either way)
4 - Mahtomedi (if they win)
5 - Delano
Monticello moves into the 5 spot if Mahtomedi gets upset

AA:
1 - Andover
2 - Eden Prairie
3 - Blake
4 - Moorhead
5 - Hill-Murray (if they win)
A Hill loss and who knows for the 5th seed
And 2 thru 4 aren't locks: could see them being inter-changed

I think a Hill win will make seeding really interesting. I know the final rankings, Hill was the team ranked the lowest out of these 5, but they beat Blake and Moorhead. I’m not saying they should be ahead of these 2 teams, but there could be a solid argument to put them at 3, 4, or 5. A WBL win tomorrow night solidified the top 4.

Hill is 4-0-1 against AA State Tourney Teams. Not too shabby. I imagine EP is close to that.

TheNightman wrote: ↑Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:05 pm 1. Andover
2. Blake
3. EP
4. Moorhead
5. Hill if they win Lakeville South if they don't

Agree with this .

EP is actually 0-2-1 against state tourney teams.

To Spehars comments on Twitter......the 2-4 seeding is more complicated than people are giving it credit for when you look at the meaningful comparisons I think.

[Speaking specifically in AA] Is it just me or is St Thomas the only "upset" of this bracket?? Not much of an upset, is it? I admit I've always used Let's Play Hockey to base my general rankings (with a grain of salt of course, mostly thanks to Karl's persuasive insight, I may take his word ((Or rank)) over theirs). But using the LPH coach's poll as a measuring stick, sections 1, 2 (EP a 2 seed, but ranked 3rd in the state with top seed Prior Lake ranked 6th), 6, 7 and 8 all had the highest ranking team advance, 5 being a close call as Maple Grove was ranked 13th, and Blaine 12th, respectively. Leaving St Thomas being the lone supposed upset as a 5th seed ranked 19th. Where you at, Rosemount Irish??

Not including tomorrow's tilt featuring 8th ranked Hill Pios versus 18th Bears. The Bears having been previously ranked #1 previously this season...

Do this many top teams usually make it? I'm feeling like it leaves us with a higher caliber state tournament on deck... Or maybe the scarcity of the underdog isn't as uncommon as I'd think.

TheNightman wrote: ↑Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:05 pm 1. Andover
2. Blake
3. EP
4. Moorhead
5. Hill if they win Lakeville South if they don't

I think EP is the 4th seed and if they are higher than that, they are getting the benefit of the doubt based on reputation. Part of that reputation is playing in the Lake Conference, which was down this year. Traditional powers Edina, Minnetonka and Wayzata, although good, just weren't as good as in past seasons, and the new teams added depth, but not to the overall difficulty of the conference (STMA's top line was fun to watch). Looking outside EP's conference schedule, what is their signature win? As someone else pointed out, EP is winless against the other State Tourney participants at 0-2-1 with their two losses coming against Moorhead and Blake, so I think their signature win was against BSM a couple of weeks ago. Assuming Hill wins their Section final, Moorhead's record against the other State Tourney teams would be 1-3 and Blake's would be 3-3 and both of them beat EP. One game doesn't make or break a season, but when I dig into the details, there isn't a compelling reason to have EP seeded higher than Moorhead (or Blake) and EP should be the 4th seed. If someone thinks higher, that is fine, but throwing out reputation and recognizable player names, what would be a reason, based on what has transpired on the ice, to seed EP higher than 4th?

Bayside Tigers wrote: ↑Fri Feb 28, 2020 12:24 am [Speaking specifically in AA] Is it just me or is St Thomas the only "upset" of this bracket?? Not much of an upset, is it? I admit I've always used Let's Play Hockey to base my general rankings (with a grain of salt of course, mostly thanks to Karl's persuasive insight, I may take his word ((Or rank)) over theirs). But using the LPH coach's poll as a measuring stick, sections 1, 2 (EP a 2 seed, but ranked 3rd in the state with top seed Prior Lake ranked 6th), 6, 7 and 8 all had the highest ranking team advance, 5 being a close call as Maple Grove was ranked 13th, and Blaine 12th, respectively. Leaving St Thomas being the lone supposed upset as a 5th seed ranked 19th. Where you at, Rosemount Irish??

Not including tomorrow's tilt featuring 8th ranked Hill Pios versus 18th Bears. The Bears having been previously ranked #1 previously this season...

Do this many top teams usually make it? I'm feeling like it leaves us with a higher caliber state tournament on deck... Or maybe the scarcity of the underdog isn't as uncommon as I'd think.

This is Karl's thoughts: (not an original idea by me) but with all the parity this season, nothing really feels like an upset.

As for seedings within the section, I'd say its about usual. It seems more seasons have 4 or 5 #1 seeds, a couple #2 seeds and maybe one more than was lower than a # 1 or #2. And thats how it played out. Although, seeing a 5 win their section is pretty rare from what I remember. (of course: some thought STA were pretty under-seeded to begin with). And hey: maybe we get a WBL upset tonight

Also if you look at the past seasons it usually lines up with the let’s play hockey rankings. Not saying it will but usually goes that way. I know all the teams vote but no one really
Knows what goes on on the other end of the conference call

AA

If HM wins

1. Andover
2. Blake
3. EP
4. Moorhead
5. Hill

If WBL wins

1. Andover
2. Blake
3. EP
4. Moorhead
5. MG

A

If Mahtomedi wins

1. Warroad
2. Hermantown
3. SCC
4. Mahtomedi
5. Delano

If SSP wins

1. Warroad
2. Hermantown
3. SCC
4. Delano
5. Monticello

Blake split with Andover to open the season.
Both Moorhead and Blake have wins over EP.
If Hill wins: they have a win over STA and I see it as:

1) Andover
2) Blake or Moorhead
3) Moorhead or Blake
4) Ep
5) Hill
Unseeded: Lakeville South, STA, MG

If WBL wins:

1) Andover
2) Blake or Moorhead
3) Moorhead or Blake
4) Ep
5) STA

Unseeded: Lakeville South, MG, WBL

The unseeded are then paired in their match-ups via a blind draw, is that how this works?

InThePipes wrote: ↑Fri Feb 28, 2020 9:04 am The unseeded are then paired in their match-ups via a blind draw, is that how this works?

"Blind draw" yeah. Don't know how blind it is or not, but that's what they say.

There is no way in Class A that Warroad shouldn't have the #1 seed. They beat Cathedral and Rapids, whom Hermantown lost to and they never lost a game to a Class A opponent all year. They also man handled a top 5 team in EGF last night. I see no argument for anyone but them as the #1 seed.

Green and White Fan wrote: ↑Fri Feb 28, 2020 9:10 am There is no way in Class A that Warroad shouldn't have the #1 seed. They beat Cathedral and Rapids, whom Hermantown lost to and they never lost a game to a Class A opponent all year. They also man handled a top 5 team in EGF last night. I see no argument for anyone but them as the #1 seed.

I agree with this.
Add the fact that the only class A team that EGF lost to was Warroad.

Aside from Andover being the #1 seed and them “randomly drawing” (who is the MSHSL kidding) STA, don’t know what the other matchups will be. Has EP lost a game since Jackson Blake joined them on Jan 28th? Blake & Moorhead will be the other top 4 seeds. Should be some interesting quarterfinal match ups

blueblood wrote: ↑Fri Feb 28, 2020 8:09 am Blake split with Andover to open the season.
Both Moorhead and Blake have wins over EP.
If Hill wins: they have a win over STA and I see it as:

1) Andover
2) Blake or Moorhead
3) Moorhead or Blake
4) Ep
5) Hill
Unseeded: Lakeville South, STA, MG

If WBL wins:

1) Andover
2) Blake or Moorhead
3) Moorhead or Blake
4) Ep
5) STA

Unseeded: Lakeville South, MG, WBL

There’s not a snowballs chance in hell STA will be seeded My prediction is they draw the Huskies

bardown27 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 28, 2020 9:06 am

InThePipes wrote: ↑Fri Feb 28, 2020 9:04 am The unseeded are then paired in their match-ups via a blind draw, is that how this works?

"Blind draw" yeah. Don't know how blind it is or not, but that's what they say.

Agreed...have heard, from multiple sources, that the whole thing is seeded 1-8, but the MSHSL doesn't say that, they go 1-5 with the final three being drawn.