Death of inner ring suburbs hockey

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greenwayraider
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Death of inner ring suburbs hockey

Post by greenwayraider » Thu May 02, 2019 3:25 pm

Richfield, Roseville, North St. Paul, Osseo, Mounds View, Irondale, Bloomington Kennedy and Burnsville all once fielded quality teams. What quality players they have seem to transfer or attend private schools. Following the socio-ecomonic trend in the Metro the exurbs (Chaska, Chanhassen, Holy Family, Prior Lake, Orono, Rogers, STMA,) appear to be the next powers.

gopherpuck516
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Re: Death of inner ring suburbs hockey

Post by gopherpuck516 » Thu May 02, 2019 4:11 pm

This has been happening for a while now. Even teams who won championships in the 90’s are down, such as Apple Valley and Jefferson. If you’re having a baby now you better move to Hinckley or Belle Plaine if you want them to play on a good public HS hockey team 😉

Looking at your list there’s still quality players at some of those schools. Kennedy has a kid committed to SCSU and Burnsville has still produced several D1 players in the last few years. But yeah, overall the demographics trends of young hockey families seem to be moving out where they can get more land for their money.

Stang5280
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Re: Death of inner ring suburbs hockey

Post by Stang5280 » Thu May 02, 2019 7:19 pm

Whenever this topic comes up, Karl inevitably references his excellent blog post regarding the changing demographics of the Twin Cities and how they relate to hockey.

Speaking from personal experience, I grew up primarily playing in the Brooklyn Park youth system, which for years was among the better programs in the metro area. We regularly finished ahead of Osseo and Wayzata in District 3, and some of the better classes advanced to state. (The problem is that BP fed to five different high schools - mainly Park Center and Osseo, but also Anoka, Cooper, and Brooklyn Center.) Now the North Metro association barely has enough players to field teams at the B level, and hockey is nonexistent at the local high schools. Lots of the people I knew growing up live in STMA, Rogers, or Maple Grove, and many of their kids are or have played in those systems. As Karl points out, the cycle continues.

HockeyFan1969
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Re: Death of inner ring suburbs hockey

Post by HockeyFan1969 » Fri May 03, 2019 2:38 pm

gopherpuck516 wrote:
Thu May 02, 2019 4:11 pm
This has been happening for a while now. Even teams who won championships in the 90’s are down, such as Apple Valley and Jefferson. If you’re having a baby now you better move to Hinckley or Belle Plaine if you want them to play on a good public HS hockey team 😉

Looking at your list there’s still quality players at some of those schools. Kennedy has a kid committed to SCSU and Burnsville has still produced several D1 players in the last few years. But yeah, overall the demographics trends of young hockey families seem to be moving out where they can get more land for their money.
An interesting question is whether or not the trend towards younger people deferring home ownership and wanting to be closer to the urban core (at least longer then their boomer and GenX predecessors) will change the dynamics. The turnover of older population toward younger couples and families appears to be happening in the Richfield's and St. Louis Park's of the world as south Mpls gets more expensive. Will that trend hit the Roseville's and Robinsdale's next? How about the Bloomington's and Apple Valley's? Would certainly seem the west and south inner ring burbs would be better poised to regenerate some hockey culture based on their relative affluence compared to their northern brethren in Brooklyn Park, Anoka or Roseville. That said, all of those communities that are just older and more mature are going to have to work just to maintain their associations or HS programs.

karl(east)
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Re: Death of inner ring suburbs hockey

Post by karl(east) » Sat May 04, 2019 11:33 am

Thanks to Stang for doing my job for me. I might have to do a mini-update of that post next year since it will have been 5 years since I wrote it. And I'm probably capable of making better maps now, too!

It'll be very interesting to track the inner ring suburbs in the coming years, especially in places like Richfield where there has been some genuine turnover to a new generation and a lot of work to rehab an older housing stock. And speaking as a millennial, there's some interesting debate out there as to whether millennials' seeming preference for dense neighborhoods and longer-term apartment living is more of a concession to economic reality than an actual fondness for living in close quarters. Do the ones with means move out when they are able, or do they put down roots in these communities where they're buying their starter homes? And even if they do stay, do they stick with the public schools? Or do they become more like the southern bits of Minneapolis, which has some great youth hockey numbers and is putting out some real talent, little of which plays for the public Minneapolis HS team?

These suburbs are where the interesting action is going to be over the next decade or two, at least for those of us who are interested by this sort of thing!

Bonin2121
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Re: Death of inner ring suburbs hockey

Post by Bonin2121 » Sat May 04, 2019 10:31 pm

I think the millennials that have kids (step 1), and make enough money to support competitive hockey (step 2) will just continue wanting to move out into the burbs where they can get a bigger house for the dough. More space for the kid(s).

goldy313
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Re: Death of inner ring suburbs hockey

Post by goldy313 » Sun May 05, 2019 12:16 am

Karl, it is not just inner ring suburbs but also tier 2 cities like Rochester, St. Cloud, and Duluth. Economics play a huge factor there as well.

You can make a very good argument that the F/R lunch rate is the #1 factor in hockey success.

karl(east)
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Re: Death of inner ring suburbs hockey

Post by karl(east) » Sun May 05, 2019 5:29 pm

goldy313 wrote:
Sun May 05, 2019 12:16 am
Karl, it is not just inner ring suburbs but also tier 2 cities like Rochester, St. Cloud, and Duluth. Economics play a huge factor there as well.

You can make a very good argument that the F/R lunch rate is the #1 factor in hockey success.
No doubt--it's easier to track historically in the metro since we have decades' worth of data, but it's certainly visible in each of those:

St. Cloud: public schools co-oping, rise of private Cathedral, steady improvement for suburban Sartell...I expect them to break point at some point somewhat soon
Duluth: closure of Duluth Central, Denfeld having some rocky years here and there numbers-wise (though on the whole, given its free/reduced lunch rate, it's holding up well), rise of Hermantown
Rochester: increasing F/R lunch rate in the city schools, which are now rarely relevant in 1AA; Dodge County's rise can't be that far off

Those metros are small enough that other dynamics like boundary lines and scattered outliers can come into play in a way they don't with the larger metro categories, but it's certainly real there, too.

Maybe if I'm bored sometime soon I'll try graphing school F/R rates against PageStat ratings or something like that. It would be interesting to see which schools are doing the best despite seemingly unfavorable demographics.

goldy313
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Re: Death of inner ring suburbs hockey

Post by goldy313 » Sun May 05, 2019 11:58 pm

Karl, you bring up Dodge County which is interesting. Kasson Mantorville is growing and next year moves into the football district with Mankato West, Owatonna, and Winona. Current day football powers. Clearly they are growing. In hockey K-M co ops with a number of schools including Byron. The Byron school district abuts Rochester and nearly comes into the city of Rochester on the West side. Given the per pupil funding Byron sends their school buses into Rochester. The Bantam A team from Dodge County made the bantam A state tournament included a number of kids who reside in Rochester and open enroll to Byron to escape John Marshall and a perceived (wrongly) lack of coaching at Lourdes.

Lourdes did not field a JV team this year, Century may struggle to even field a team in 2 years. John Marshall will be ok in terms of numbers but quality will be an issue.

FWIW I have done some research on success and the lunch rate. Blaine bucks the trend, so did Bemidji. Largely the schools with lowest f\r lunch rate succeed at a vastly higher rate than those with higher rates. At least in AA.....in 1AA The 3 Dakota County teams run at under 10% while the 4 Big Nine teams all run at 30%. No wonder no Big Nine team has made a final since 2011.

Stang5280
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Re: Death of inner ring suburbs hockey

Post by Stang5280 » Mon May 06, 2019 1:34 pm

goldy313 wrote:
Sun May 05, 2019 11:58 pm
FWIW I have done some research on success and the lunch rate. Blaine bucks the trend, so did Bemidji. Largely the schools with lowest f\r lunch rate succeed at a vastly higher rate than those with higher rates. At least in AA.....in 1AA The 3 Dakota County teams run at under 10% while the 4 Big Nine teams all run at 30%. No wonder no Big Nine team has made a final since 2011.
Burnsville has still been putting some pretty decent quality teams on the ice even as their demographics has changed (now at 41% FRE). Unfortunately their youth pipeline is looking pretty thin, so I’m not sure how much longer it will last.

karl(east)
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Re: Death of inner ring suburbs hockey

Post by karl(east) » Mon May 06, 2019 9:48 pm

Here are F/R rates for the most recent year for public high schools with boys' hockey, according to MDE. I tried to do the math for co-ops (including adjustments for 7-12 schools) when possible but can't guarantee everything. Obviously size matters, but there are some pretty strong correlations.

I was most surprised to see that Moorhead's rate is as high as it is. Credit to Eden Prairie and Duluth East for being in the top tier of teams despite being a slight step back from most of their peers there (though they also benefit from large numbers and being home to some very affluent neighborhoods), and Blaine certainly as well, too. On the Class A side, East Grand Forks looks good here.

Underachievers based on this could include Prior Lake, Mounds View, and Rogers...Chanhassen and East Ridge probably can be excused some for their newness as hockey programs. Aforementioned Burnsville deserves some credit, and this sheds new light on Greenway's run this past season. Numbers probably help in places like Kennedy and Denfeld and St. Cloud, but they punch above their weight. And real credit to St. Paul Johnson for continuing to have a respectable Class A program.

Mahtomedi 5.4%
Orono 5.6%
Chanhassen 6.8%
Minnetonka 6.9%
Lakeville North 7.9%
Edina 8.5%
Delano 8.8%
Waconia 9.4%
Wayzata 9.4%
Prior Lake 9.6%
Hermantown 10.1%
New Prague 11.1%
St. Michael-Albertville 11.2%
East Ridge 11.3%
Mounds View 12.3%
Eagan 12.4%
Andover 12.5%
Rogers 12.6%
Sartell 12.6%
Stillwater 12.6%
Chisago Lakes 14.0%
Elk River 14.0%
Lakeville South 14.0%
Hastings 14.2%
LaCrescent 14.2%
Centennial 14.4%
Maple Grove 14.4%
Rosemount 14.7%
Farmington 14.8%
Eastview 15.2%
Forest Lake 15.6%
Woodbury 15.9%
Duluth East 16.8%
Mound Westonka 17.6%
Becker Big Lake 18.0%
Dodge County 18.6%
Eden Prairie 18.6%
Hutchinson 19.4%
Bloomington Jefferson 20.0%
New Ulm 20.6%
North Shore 20.6%
Buffalo 20.8%
Northfield 21.3%
North Branch 21.5%
Fergus Falls 22.0%
St. Francis 22.1%
Monticello 22.2%
Morris/Benson 22.5%
Proctor 22.9%
Rochester Century 23.1%
Alexandria 23.7%
White Bear Lake 24.1%
Luverne 24.6%
Princeton 24.7%
River Lakes 24.8%
Chaska 24.8%
Litchfield 25.1%
Blaine 25.2%
Roseau 25.2%
Kittson Central 25.7%
Red Wing 25.7%
Cloquet 27.1%
Detroit Lakes 27.1%
Mankato West 27.3%
Sauk Rapids 27.4%
Anoka 27.7%
Cambridge 28.1%
Park Cottage Grove 28.2%
Grand Rapids 28.7%
East Grand Forks 28.8%
Prairie Centre 29.2%
Waseca 29.7%
Brainerd 30.0%
Rochester Mayo 30.6%
Shakopee 30.6%
Owatonna 31.0%
Breckenridge/(Wahpeton) 31.1%
Thief River Falls 31.3%
Winona 31.4%
Pine City 31.5%
International Falls 32.3%
St. Louis Park 32.3%
Minnesota River 32.5%
Northern Lakes 32.7%
Champlin Park 33.1%
Virginia 33.5%
Eveleth Gilbert 33.8%
Hopkins 34.2%
Warroad 34.4%
Marshall 34.8%
Mora 34.9%
Moose Lake 35.1%
Simley 35.1%
Farimont 35.5%
Ely 35.6%
Hibbing 35.9%
Little Falls 35.9%
Moorhead 36.0%
Rochester John Marshall 36.8%
Bemidji 36.9%
Apple Valley 37.0%
Mankato East 37.7%
Henry Sibley 37.8%
Redwood Valley 38.1%
Spring Lake Park 38.5%
Crookston 38.8%
Park Rapids 39.5%
Greenway 40.5%
Roseville 40.7%
Burnsville 41.0%
Irondale 41.4%
Albert Lea 41.7%
Lake of the Woods 41.7%
Bagley 41.9%
Windom 42.1%
Coon Rapids 44.2%
Red Lake Falls 45.0%
St. Paul Highland Park 45.6%
South St. Paul 47.0%
Austin 47.5%
Robbinsdale Armstrong/Cooper 48.2%
Osseo 48.2%
Tartan 48.6%
Wadena 48.6%
Faribault 49.6%
Bloomington Kennedy 51.8%
Duluth Denfeld 53.1%
Willmar 54.4%
North St. Paul 55.5%
St. Cloud 56.8%
Minneapolis 59.6%
Worthington 63.5%
St. Paul Johnson 76.2%

goldy313
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Re: Death of inner ring suburbs hockey

Post by goldy313 » Mon May 06, 2019 11:43 pm

The MSHSL tried to adjust enrollment based on F/R lunch numbers and that generally works in football, basketball, track, soccer, etc where you need a piece of grass and some shoes. Hockey is a different animal..... so is golf, swimming, and gymnastics. I think the MSHSL would be wise to acknowledge different sports require different investments at the youth level.

goldy313
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Re: Death of inner ring suburbs hockey

Post by goldy313 » Mon May 06, 2019 11:50 pm

What hit me most is how poor the Big Nine Conference is. Literally, one of if not the poorest in the state of hockey conferences. And it is getting worse down here. (Having one employer does that)

Stang5280
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Re: Death of inner ring suburbs hockey

Post by Stang5280 » Tue May 07, 2019 10:30 am

goldy313 wrote:
Mon May 06, 2019 11:50 pm
What hit me most is how poor the Big Nine Conference is. Literally, one of if not the poorest in the state of hockey conferences. And it is getting worse down here. (Having one employer does that)
I was initially surprised by some of the percentages for the Big Nine schools, but it makes sense upon further reflection. The combination of one or two large employers in most of those cities (not just Rochester, but also places like Albert Lea, Winona or Mankato), along with the heavy influx of international immigration has created a small group of “haves” in those communities, and a much larger pool of “have nots.”

I think your thesis can be expanded to basically all of southern MN, as the Big South falls into the same boat. It’s actually impressive that some of these communities have been able to start and maintain hockey programs given their limited resources and lack of tradition.

Stang5280
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Re: Death of inner ring suburbs hockey

Post by Stang5280 » Tue May 07, 2019 11:01 am

Lower F/R than I expected:
Delano (cooperative with Rockford )
STMA
Mounds View
Chisago Lakes
Elk River
Hastings
Duluth East
Jefferson
New Ulm
Rochester Century
Luverne

Higher F/R than I expected:
Mound Westonka
WBL
Chaska
Blaine
Mankato (both)
Rochester Mayo
EGF
Champlin Park
Moorhead
Burnsville
Greenway

Obviously not a complete list, but those are some that stood out to me. It may just be my unfamiliarity with the dynamics of some of those cities and/or school districts as well.

goldy313
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Re: Death of inner ring suburbs hockey

Post by goldy313 » Fri May 10, 2019 10:45 pm

Rochester, pretty unfairly, puts more F/R in the John Marshall area when one of the poorest areas of town is much closer to Century than John Marshall, while they bus kids from a much more affluent part of town further to Century when John Marshall is much closer. Local politics in action, i.e. real estate developers. Mayo has the wealthiest area of Rochester but also the poorest.

Luverne is a quasi Sioux Falls suburb. While agriculture is the heart and soul of the area, their proximity to Sioux Falls is a definite onus to the area.

New Ulm has always been fairly well off, fairly low immigration, stable employers. They have been a long term successful sports town.

Neither Moorhead or EGF surprise me a bit, for low income workers Minnesota benefits are much better than North Dakota benefits. If you are on the fringe of the middle class housing and the like, by and large, are cheaper on the east side of the Red River.

BodyShots
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Re: Death of inner ring suburbs hockey

Post by BodyShots » Mon May 13, 2019 3:52 pm

Stang5280 wrote:
Tue May 07, 2019 11:01 am
Lower F/R than I expected:
Delano (cooperative with Rockford )
STMA
Mounds View
Chisago Lakes
Elk River
Hastings
Duluth East
Jefferson
New Ulm
Rochester Century
Luverne

Higher F/R than I expected:
Mound Westonka
WBL
Chaska
Blaine
Mankato (both)
Rochester Mayo
EGF
Champlin Park
Moorhead
Burnsville
Greenway

Obviously not a complete list, but those are some that stood out to me. It may just be my unfamiliarity with the dynamics of some of those cities and/or school districts as well.
Mahtomedi sends all of there F/R to WBL. It makes them feel good and gives the impression they have a top notched education system. :roll:

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