AA Rankings for 2/18/24

[karl(east)]

Happy end of the regular season! As usual, this means a format change in these rankings, with 1-25 listed out before walking through each section. Seedings are speculative and I’ll adjust if things come out in a different order. The top 25:

1. Minnetonka (23-0-2)
2. Wayzata (21-2-2)
3. Edina (20-4-1)
4. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (20-4-1)
5. Chanhassen (20-5)
6. Maple Grove (19-6)
7. Rogers (17-6-2)
8. Shakopee (20-4-1)
9. Hill-Murray (15-8-2)
10. Eastview (17-7-1)
11. Eden Prairie (16-8-1)
12. Andover (16-8-1)
13. Rosemount (18-7)
14. St. Thomas Academy (15-8-2)
15. Centennial (16-7-2)
16. Roseau (18-6-1)
17. Moorhead (12-12-1)
18. Grand Rapids (14-11)
19. White Bear Lake (17-7-1)
20. Elk River (15-9-1)
21. Champlin Park (15-9-1)
22. Lakeville South (15-10)
23. Stillwater (14-9-2)
24. Gentry Academy (19-6)
25. Cretin-Derham Hall (14-10-1)

And now, each section:

1AA
1. Lakeville South (15-10, #22)
-A shutout loss to Prior Lake isn’t exactly cruising into the postseason, and while the Cougars have shown they can hang with quality teams when they can keep the score down, this team isn’t exactly known for its explosive offense. In this season’s 1AA that’s still enough to be the clearest favorite in any AA section, but a collection of hungry, less tested teams is nipping at the Cougars’ heels; if any of them can stick around here, I don’t hate the odds at an upset.
2. Rochester Century/John Marshall
-It’s been a respectable regular season in the first year of this co-op, with plenty of wins. With zero games against anyone even close to the AA top 25 on their schedule, it’s hard to say much more other than that they lost twice to Class A top 10 team Northfield, with the second loss coming by an ugly 5-0 scoreline.
3. New Prague
-The season has had its lumps, but they are the 3-seed here and have beaten the team that got the 2-seed. They’re a bit more battle-tested than the other two in the non-Lakeville chase pack, but they don’t have any results from those games that scream upset potential, either.
4. Owatonna
-This may actually be the most dangerous of the south-of-Lakeville chasers here, as they’ve beaten Class A top 10 team Northfield and stuck around in a loss to Park of Cottage Grove. Whether that’s enough to give South a run—or even get by North—is a bigger question, but there are some things to work with here.
5. Lakeville North
6. Farmington
7. Rochester Mayo

2AA
1. Minnetonka (23-0-2, #1)
-The Skippers rolled past Eden Prairie to lock down the undefeated regular season, AA’s first (in a full season) in eight years, and arguably the most impressive all-time given their strength of schedule. They head into the playoffs having given up five goals in their last nine games—and four of those came in a win over Wayzata. They are the undisputed frontrunner, as clear a favorite as ever, and now have to deliver the repeat.
2. Chanhassen (20-5, #5)
-The Storm ended on a sour note, getting shut out by Benilde and losing the #4 ranking they’d held on lockdown since the start of the new year. Playing a soft conference schedule outside of the newly resilient Red Knights while the Lake teams pound on each other probably doesn’t help. But here they are, headed into sections with their loaded senior class, with a likely semifinal opponent whom they handled 6-1 in December. The goal is to get that final crack at Minnetonka, and they’ve come ever so close in the past couple meetings. Do they have what it takes to finally bust through?
3. Shakopee (20-4-1, #8)
-The Sabers saw their ten-game winning streak snapped in the regular season finale against Eastview. They don’t control games the way Minnetonka and Chanhassen do, but they have the high-end Coopers to capitalize on chances and one of the most valuable goaltenders in AA in Aleksi Huson. Prior Lake is a pesky first round opponent and they struggled with Chanhassen in the regular season, so their road forward is about as tough as it can be for a team of their ranking.
4. Eden Prairie (16-8-1, #11)
-It was in many ways a solid season for the Eagles, exceeding expectations and seeing a few players who’d previously been in the shadow of other stars step up and take the lead; an early tie with Wayzata show they have the potential to shock a favorite. Against the top three in 2024, however, they are 0-4 with three shutouts and a 9-3 loss to Edina, so they will need to find another level if they get past Holy Family and get that semifinal date with the Skippers.
5. Holy Family
-The season has had some real rough patches for the Fire, but there is enough talent here to win a quarterfinal in spite of it all.
6. Prior Lake
-This section is too loaded to see the Lakers making a deep run, but they’re more than capable of a first round upset.
7. Bloomington Jefferson
8. Waconia
9. Chaska

3AA
1. Eastview (17-7-1, #10)
-A win over Shakopee punctuated the Lightning’s late-season run, as they head into sections on a 6-game streak and a 11-1-1 run in their last 13. This senior-heavy squad may not have as much raw skill as some of its section rivals, but it has paced 3AA throughout, beating Rosemount twice and St. Thomas early on, and for their efforts have earned a somewhat easier road. Now, can they finish it and scrap their way to an unexpected Tourney berth?
2. Rosemount (18-7, #12)
-The Irish finished on a positive note with wins over Lakeville South and Eagan. They’ve been handling the teams below them, often convincingly, but can they rise to the occasion on a tough path through 3AA? They seem to be the sleeper here, a team without Eastview’s late-season momentum or St. Thomas’s pedigree, lurking with a chance to make their first ever AA Tourney in a very winnable section.
3. St. Thomas Academy (15-8-2, #14)
-The Cadets had an up-and-down finish to their season. They’ve got two top four wins to their name, proving they can lock down anyone when they’re on, but this youngish group has also had some scoring droughts against the good-but-not-great sorts of teams they’ll need to beat to reclaim the 3AA crown.
4. Park of Cottage Grove
-Split with Cretin this season and have the skill on their top unit to make something interesting.
5. Cretin-Derham Hall (14-10-1, #25)
-It hasn’t come easily for the Raiders this season, but if they can win the rubber match with Park after beating them just last week, Eastview isn’t a terrible draw to get to a section final. They may have a worse record, but they have a few quality players who keep their talent level within striking distance of the top three here, so it’s not crazy to imagine them defending their section title.
6. Two Rivers
7. Eagan
8. Hastings
9. Apple Valley/Burnsville

4AA
1. Hill-Murray (15-8-2, #9)
-Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: it’s mid-February and the Pioneers look to be peaking again. An eye-popping win over Maple Grove and a victory at improving Moorhead headlined a 10-3 run to close their season, with all three losses coming to top four teams and six wins over top 25 teams since that fateful Two Rivers loss. Moreover, their 4AA competition has all hit various stumbles over the past few weeks, so the section suddenly looks there for the taking. Somehow, they just seem to find ways.
2. White Bear Lake (17-7-1, #19)
-The Bears finished with a 3-0 week, including a quality win over Cretin, and with Nolan Roed up front and a strong back end, they appear the best-positioned team in this section to give Hill a run if they can get that far. They did tie the Pioneers in the regular season, so it’s certainly not out of reach, and they’re built like a team that can do some damage; now, they need to finish the deal.
3. Stillwater (14-9-2, #23)
-The Ponies did not have a great final week, losing to Mounds View and tying a Holy Family team that had been on a slide. A convincing win in their second meeting with White Bear shows they are in the picture here, but the results over the past few weeks suggest they need to find another level.
4. Gentry Academy (19-6, #24)
-Like Stillwater, the Stars’ final week, with an overtime escape against Armstrong/Cooper and a loss to Sartell, did not inspire confidence that they can win this section. They remain something of an enigma and have some talent, but is it enough to give Hill a real test in the semis?
5. Woodbury
6. Mounds View
7. Roseville
8. East Ridge
9. Tartan
10. St. Paul Johnson

5AA
1. Maple Grove (19-6, #6)
-A shellacking at the hands of Hill puts a damper on a late-season run for the Crimson, though they rebounded with a win over Andover and went 4-1 in their very tough five-game final stretch; they’ve been consistent enough in games against quality opponents to stay firmly in the second tier right behind the top 4-5 teams for a while now. Rogers may have more front-end flash, but the Crimson are the owners of this section until the machine finally gets beaten. Champlin could make for a feisty quarterfinal before the big test for all the marbles.
2. Centennial (16-7-2, #15)
-The Cougars handled two lesser opponents in their final week. They are much more dependent on the exploits of a single star (Harper Searles) than the two teams ranked ahead of them in 5AA, but they’ve proven they can hang with the top two, and winning the thing isn’t out of the question. Coon Rapids could provide an adventure in the quarters first, though.
3. Rogers (17-6-2, #7)
-The Royals have had an up-and-down season, plagued by injury and other absence, and they have lost some games they probably shouldn’t have, relegating them to the 3-seed. That said, they still have the most front-end talent in 5AA, and they won the regular season meeting against Maple Grove. Now, they need to prove they can bust through and win when it matters most.
4. Champlin Park (15-9-1, #21)
-The Rebels march into sections on a six-game streak that includes a win over Holy Family this past week. They have the offensive juice to throw a game open and test a team that isn’t ready for their style. Whether that’s enough to do any more in a tough section is an open question, but stranger things have happened.
5. Totino-Grace
6. Coon Rapids
-An adventurous team that could cause some issues, though they did lose to quarterfinal opponent Rogers in the season's final week.
7. Spring Lake Park
8. Blaine
9. Irondale
10. Osseo

6AA
1. Wayzata (21-2-2, #2)
-The Trojans found a way in overtime and secured the crucial top seed in 6AA, setting up a likely semifinal date with a Holy Angels team they just beat 6-2 instead of lurking Benilde. Their depth and scoring balance is top notch, and they bring an offensive ability that no Wayzata team has had in the Pat O’Leary era, though if there’s a knock, it’s that the top-end talent isn’t quite on the level of Edina or Minnetonka, and they can on occasion control games without scoring. Last season shows the final regular season game between Edina and Wayzata may mean little, but it did give the Trojans a noticeably smoother path to the Tourney and from there on to Saturday night in March.
2. Edina (20-4-1, #3)
-The Hornets came up short against Wayzata, relegating them to a nasty quarterfinal at BIG next Saturday against a team that beat them back in December. Their younger players have come along since then, and they also feature a top line that can finish with surgical precision and the customary Edina depth. We’ll see if they can manage the long road through to the Tourney now.
3. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (20-4-1, #4)
-The Red Knights shut down Chanhassen to put a strong final note on their regular season, crashing the top four party and showing they can do that elusive thing over the past decade of Red Knight hockey: play lockdown defense. The road forward is as tough as it can be for a 3-seed, but they have the defense and the goaltender to give Edina and Wayzata fits.
4. Holy Angels
-In another section this team could be some semifinal trouble, but with a date with Wayzata looming, the road ahead is difficult.
5. St. Louis Park
6. Robbinsdale Armstrong/Cooper
7. Hopkins
8. Blake

7AA
1. Grand Rapids (14-11, #18)
-The Thunderhawks have been one of the positive stories in the state down the stretch, collecting some quality wins with lockdown defense and quality goaltending. Some uneven late losses to Benilde and Hermantown dim the luster a bit; they’ll have to prove they haven’t peaked too soon. But earning the top seed in 7AA gives them a pretty clear road to the section final, and if they can follow their formula and repeat the physical pounding they gave Andover at Yanmar a month ago, they could bust through for the first time since 2017.
2. Andover (16-8-1, #12)
-The Huskies’ regular season-closing loss to Maple Grove about sums up what they are: a steady, very capable team, but not one that has ever seriously entered the conversation among the front-line contenders. Though they are the 2-seed, they are the cautious favorite to continue their run in 7AA: while they do not have the star power of recent editions, they are deep, and have no glaring flaws, which help them stand out in a thin section. If they can withstand some northern physicality, their odds at a return to St. Paul are good.
3. Duluth East
-While it has often been a season of frustration for the Hounds, they did take care of the teams below them all season long. If they can do that again and earn a trip to Amsoil, they have the offensive capability to make a game interesting; for that to happen, the back end needs to show some real improvement.
4. Rock Ridge
-The Wolverines had a very nice record in their first AA season, but they also weren’t tested much; if they can get past a Forest Lake team that did have to go through a deeper Metro conference, it’ll be interesting to see what they make of Grand Rapids.
5. Forest Lake
6. Duluth Denfeld
7. Duluth Marshall (def. #10 Northern Edge 9-1)
9. Cambridge-Isanti (def. #8 Anoka 3-1)

8AA
1. Moorhead (12-12-1, #17)
-The Spuds took their lumps early this season, and a loss to Hill-Murray in the customary regular season finale robbed them of a chance to make a final statement on their improvement. Nonetheless, this young squad has made up some ground as the season has gone on, and if not for that loss to Roseau in the second meeting, I’d feel very confident in them. They did lose that game, though, and in a section where no game is easy, their tenure atop 8AA is in as much jeopardy as it’s been in a while.
2. Roseau (18-6-1, #16)
-The Rams finished the regular season on a high note with a shutdown performance against Class A power East Grand Forks, and while there have been some bumps in the road, the bulk of their work down the stretch has been pretty impressive, which nudges them up in the overall rankings. I also don’t think the 2-seed is a bad spot for them since they miss streaking recent playoff nemesis Elk River in the semis, though not even the quarters are easy here, and Sartell is certainly capable of the semifinal upset. The firepower is here, but can the Rams put it together and earn their first State berth in ten years?
3. Sartell
-This team has hovered on the edge of the top 25 for much of the season, with a final week sniping of Gentry serving as another reminder that they can hang in there with the top two. First they need to get to the semis, though.
4. Elk River (15-9-1, #20)
-The Elks ride into the playoffs on a 5-game winning streak in which they’ve bagged both Centennial and Andover. They’ve got some good balance and strong goaltending, and the quality of their wins may be the best of anyone in this section. If they can keep that going, there’s no reason they can’t win this thing.
5. Bemidji
6. Buffalo
-A quietly dangerous six-seed well battle-tested after a season of Lake Conference competition.
7. St. Cloud
8. Brainerd (def. #9 St. Michael-Albertville 5-2)

And with that, my work here is pretty much done. Enjoy the most fun three weeks in hockey!

[ClassAGuy]

Excellent as always Karl thanks for a great winter! Now on to the Playoffs!

[Cookster]

Great way to start off a Sunday. Only 2 questions:

1. Why is Edina the 2 and BSM the 3 given BSM beat Edina earlier this year. Granted, the only difference is color of the sweater, and last change.
2. Why do you think Shakopee is the 3 and EP the 4? While it may happen that way, take the Top 3 off the EP schedule, and they are 16-3, vs Shakopee with the Charmin soft schedule at 20-3. 2-2 in Section vs 3-3. EP has a win against #4 Benilde and a Tie vs #2 Wayzata. Shakopee has a tie vs #7 and a win vs #10. Arguments can be made both ways, just trying to understand the logic

[ClassAGuy]

Official Section 1AA seeds:
1. Lakeville South
2. Rochester Century/John Marshall
3. New Prague
4. Owatonna
5. Lakeville North
6. Farmington
7. Rochester Mayo

Official Section 2AA seeds:
1. Minnetonka
2. Chanhassen
3. Shakopee
4. Eden Prairie
5. Holy Family
6. Prior Lake
7. Bloomington Jefferson
9. Waconia
10. Chaska

Official Section 3AA seeds:
1. Eastview
2. Rosemount
3. St. Thomas Academy
4. Park of Cottage Grove
5. Cretin-Derham Hall
6. Two Rivers
7. Eagan
8. Hastings
9. Apple Valley/Burnsville

Official Section 4AA seeds:
1. Hill-Murray
2. White Bear Lake
3. Stillwater
4. Gentry Academy
5. Woodbury
6. Mounds View
7. Roseville
8. East Ridge
9. Tartan
10. St. Paul Johnson

Official Section 5AA seeds
1. Maple Grove
2. Centennial
3. Rogers
4. Champlin Park
5. Totino-Grace
6. Coon Rapids
7. Spring Lake Park
8. Blaine
9. Irondale
10. Osseo

Official Section 6AA seeds:
1. Wayzata
2. Edina
3. Benilde-St. Margaret's
4. Holy Angels
5. St. Louis Park
6. Robbinsdale Armstrong/Cooper
7. Hopkins
8. Blake

Official Section 7AA seeds:
1. Grand Rapids
2. Andover
3. Duluth East
4. Rock Ridge
5. Forest Lake
6. Duluth Denfeld
7. Duluth Marshall
8. Anoka
9. Cambridge-Isanti
10. Northern Edge

Official Section 8AA :
1. Moorhead
2. Roseau
3. Sartell-St. Stephen
4. Elk River/Zimmerman
5. Bemidji
6. Buffalo
7. St. Cloud
8. Brainerd
9. St. Michael-Albertville

[raidergrad72]

Just a gentle correction, Karl. You said Rosemount could make their very first tournament trip.
They were in the Tier II 1992 tournament which was played at Target Center.
After a 4 win season they got hot at the right time only to lose to Greenway in the championship game 6-1.

[ryguyMN]

Bravo on another regular season in the books.

2AA
1. Minnetonka (23-0-2, #1)
-The Skippers rolled past Eden Prairie to lock down the undefeated regular season, AA’s first in eight years, and arguably the most impressive all-time given their strength of schedule.

Just of note, Lakeville South did go undefeated in 2021 going 18-0-2. Granted, it wasn’t a full schedule that season.

[East Side Pioneer Guy]

Bravo on another regular season in the books.

2AA
1. Minnetonka (23-0-2, #1)
-The Skippers rolled past Eden Prairie to lock down the undefeated regular season, AA’s first in eight years, and arguably the most impressive all-time given their strength of schedule.

Just of note, Lakeville South did go undefeated in 2021 going 18-0-2. Granted, it wasn’t a full schedule that season.

Yeah, they only played three quarterfinal games that year. But I'm not bitter.

[East Side Pioneer Guy]

4AA:

1) HM
2) WBL
3) Stillwater
4) Gentry
5) Woodbury
6) Mounds View
7) Roseville
8 ) East Ridge
9) Tar-tan
10) Johnson

[karl(east)]

Appreciate the kind words, as always! All seeds are now in, along with a few mild corrections such as the ones noted above and a couple typos.

I kept Edina at #2 in 6AA (as did the coaches) because they do have a win over Wayzata, and Benilde has a tie against Holy Angels. I think the Hornets' stronger schedule was enough to keep them there, and losing one Lake Conference thriller on the season's final day shouldn't cost them 2 spots in the seeds.

I would've been more sold on EP down the stretch if they'd given any of the big three in the Lake a good game in January or February, but it never happened. Hence rewarding Shakopee for their stronger work late in the season (though that final loss did close the gap and make me think some).

Regardless, it's setting up for a really fun AA section tournament. The Tourney may be a bit unbalanced with so many great teams in 2AA and 6AA and to an extent 5AA, but the section tournaments could make up for that. With the possible exception of 1AA--and even that has some curiosity around it--every race is a good one. I can't remember a year where so many sections were 3 or 4 teams deep with legitimate contenders.