Discussion of Minnesota Girls High School Hockey
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LSQRANK
Posts: 415 Joined: Fri Nov 21, 2014 6:05 pm
Post
by LSQRANK » Sun Feb 06, 2022 11:36 pm
Here are this week's rating values for the girls. Below I give a little numerical example of how to compute the predicted game score differentials between any two teams. The last column (Qxx) is the values that you need to use for each team. For the time being, use Qij = 0.031 for the off-diagonal term, it will be close enough. From another's post, it has Lakeville South seeded 1st and Rochester Century seeded 8th, so I assume that these two teams will play each other in the first round of the playoffs. If that is the case, its a pretty sure bet that Lakeville South will beat Rochester Century by 11 to 13 goals given a full length (3x 17min) game. Hard to say what effect running time protocol will have in the 3rd period, sometimes the leading team tries harder to score, sometimes not. My hunch is that it will be 10-zip LVS at the start of the 3rd period.
Code: Select all
WEEK 13: Feb 06, 2022
Girls HS Hockey Computerized Ratings
*All game score results are weighted equally
Global Snot = 2.442
C.I. = MOV +/- MOE
MOE = ([t(alpha)] * Snot * Sqrt( Qii + Qjj - 2Qij ))
Use Qij = 0.031 for all future game predictions
Confidence
Level Alpha t-value
--------------------------------
68% 0.32 1.000
90% 0.10 1.645
95% 0.05 1.960
99% 0.01 2.575
Example
-------
Calculate a 90% Confidence Interval for the score differential between a first round
playoff game for section 1AA between Lakeville_South and Rochester_Century
Ratings for both teams are:
Lakeville_South 996.8110 Qii = 0.0934
Rochester_Century 984.8070 Qjj = 0.0970
--------
Predicted MOV = 12.004 ===> 12 goals
MOE = (1.645)(2.442)* Sqrt( 0.0934 + 0.0970 - 2*(0.031) ) = 1.44
Answer: 90% C.I. = [ 10.564 ... 13.444 ]
95% C.I. = [ 10.288 ... 13.720 ]
Interpretation : We are 90% confident that the interval from [10.564 to 13.444] will contain
the true value of the game score differential for the future girls HS
ice hockey game between Lakeville_South and Rochester_Century
LSQRANK State Score Team LG SECCLS GP (WW-LL-TT) Sxx Qxx
===================================================================================================
1 MN 1000.0000 Andover MSHSL 7 AA 24 (24- 0- 0) 0.000 0.0000
2 MN 999.3031 Edina MSHSL 6 AA 25 (23- 2- 0) 0.697 0.0814
3 MN 999.0556 Minnetonka MSHSL 2 AA 25 (19- 6- 0) 0.684 0.0785
4 MN 997.6774 HolyFamily MSHSL 2 AA 25 (20- 4- 1) 0.712 0.0851
5 MN 997.6741 Warroad MSHSL 8 A 24 (20- 3- 1) 0.699 0.0818
6 MN 997.5679 Wayzata MSHSL 6 AA 25 (16- 8- 1) 0.695 0.0810
7 MN 997.5331 Benilde-St.Margaret's MSHSL 6 AA 24 (18- 5- 1) 0.711 0.0847
8 MN 997.1430 GentryAcademy MSHSL 4 AA 24 (18- 6- 0) 0.707 0.0839
9 MN 996.8679 MapleGrove MSHSL 5 AA 25 (17- 6- 2) 0.678 0.0770
10 MN 996.8110 LakevilleSouth MSHSL 1 AA 25 (23- 2- 0) 0.747 0.0934
11 MN 996.7978 Orono MSHSL 5 A 25 (22- 3- 0) 0.728 0.0889
12 MN 996.6281 Hill-Murray MSHSL 4 AA 24 (16- 8- 0) 0.704 0.0832
13 MN 996.5379 Rogers MSHSL 5 AA 25 (19- 4- 2) 0.694 0.0807
14 MN 996.2374 Centennial/SpringLakePark MSHSL 5 AA 25 (16- 8- 1) 0.691 0.0801
15 MN 996.2218 Stillwater MSHSL 4 AA 24 (13- 9- 2) 0.712 0.0851
16 MN 996.0761 Blake MSHSL 6 AA 23 (13-10- 0) 0.716 0.0859
17 MN 995.8836 NorthWrightCounty MSHSL 5 AA 25 (14-10- 1) 0.711 0.0847
18 MN 995.8732 Burnsville MSHSL 3 AA 25 (19- 5- 1) 0.745 0.0931
19 MN 995.8353 Proctor/Hermantown MSHSL 7 A 25 (16- 7- 2) 0.703 0.0828
20 MN 995.3119 ElkRiver/Zimmerman MSHSL 7 AA 25 (12-12- 1) 0.691 0.0801
21 MN 995.2051 Rosemount MSHSL 3 AA 25 (17- 8- 0) 0.748 0.0939
22 MN 994.9724 HolyAngels MSHSL 5 A 25 (20- 4- 1) 0.732 0.0897
23 MN 994.9422 Cretin-DerhamHall MSHSL 3 AA 25 (16- 7- 2) 0.721 0.0872
24 MN 994.8649 Blaine MSHSL 7 AA 25 (11-11- 3) 0.693 0.0805
25 MN 994.7056 GrandRapids-Greenway MSHSL 7 AA 25 (17- 8- 0) 0.704 0.0831
26 MN 994.3860 MoundWestonka MSHSL 5 A 25 (19- 6- 0) 0.727 0.0885
27 MN 994.3128 Roseville MSHSL 4 AA 25 (15- 8- 2) 0.719 0.0866
28 MN 994.3077 Moorhead MSHSL 8 AA 25 (17- 8- 0) 0.723 0.0877
29 MN 994.1265 ChamplinPark/CoonRapids MSHSL 5 AA 25 (13-11- 1) 0.693 0.0806
30 MN 994.1120 Simley MSHSL 4 A 25 (18- 4- 3) 0.731 0.0896
31 MN 994.0113 Alexandria MSHSL 8 AA 23 (12-10- 1) 0.744 0.0928
32 MN 993.9329 Eastview MSHSL 3 AA 24 (11-12- 1) 0.755 0.0957
33 MN 993.9076 EdenPrairie MSHSL 2 AA 24 ( 8-16- 0) 0.721 0.0871
34 MN 993.8616 Shakopee MSHSL 2 AA 25 (10-15- 0) 0.745 0.0929
35 MN 993.6948 LakevilleNorth MSHSL 1 AA 25 (11-13- 1) 0.752 0.0947
36 MN 993.6805 Brainerd/LittleFalls MSHSL 8 AA 24 (13-11- 0) 0.734 0.0903
37 MN 993.4794 Chaska/Chanhassen MSHSL 2 AA 25 (11-14- 0) 0.730 0.0893
38 MN 993.4321 Northfield MSHSL 1 AA 24 (16- 5- 3) 0.744 0.0928
39 MN 993.4180 Farmington MSHSL 1 AA 25 (11-14- 0) 0.748 0.0937
40 MN 993.3624 EastRidge MSHSL 4 AA 25 (14-10- 1) 0.727 0.0886
41 MN 993.3344 DuluthMarshall MSHSL 7 A 22 (15- 7- 0) 0.750 0.0943
42 MN 993.2036 Roseau MSHSL 8 AA 24 (14- 8- 2) 0.735 0.0907
43 MN 993.1737 Osseo/ParkCenter MSHSL 5 AA 25 (11-14- 0) 0.696 0.0813
44 MN 993.1713 SouthStPaul MSHSL 4 A 25 (13-10- 2) 0.725 0.0882
45 MN 993.1179 ForestLake MSHSL 7 AA 25 (13-12- 0) 0.708 0.0841
46 ND 993.0840 FargoDavies NDHSL 0 A 19 (18- 1- 0) 0.951 0.1517
47 MN 992.9958 MoundsView MSHSL 5 AA 24 (12-12- 0) 0.728 0.0888
48 MN 992.9448 DodgeCounty MSHSL 1 AA 26 (15-11- 0) 0.721 0.0871
49 ND 992.7240 FargoNorth/South NDHSL 0 A 19 (13- 6- 0) 0.947 0.1503
50 MN 992.7154 AppleValley MSHSL 3 AA 25 (10-13- 2) 0.746 0.0934
51 MN 992.4880 ChisagoLakes MSHSL 4 A 25 (11-13- 1) 0.720 0.0868
52 MN 992.4617 St.Cloud MSHSL 8 AA 24 (13- 9- 2) 0.744 0.0927
53 MN 992.3681 FergusFalls MSHSL 6 A 24 (18- 4- 2) 0.744 0.0929
54 MN 992.2759 Minneapolis MSHSL 5 A 25 ( 8-16- 1) 0.732 0.0898
55 MN 992.1539 Cloquet-Esko-Carlton MSHSL 7 A 25 (18- 6- 1) 0.726 0.0884
56 MN 992.1364 Eagan MSHSL 3 AA 25 ( 5-19- 1) 0.747 0.0936
57 MN 992.1320 Anoka MSHSL 7 AA 25 ( 7-18- 0) 0.695 0.0810
58 MN 992.1179 Woodbury MSHSL 4 AA 25 (14-11- 0) 0.727 0.0885
59 MN 992.1013 Luverne MSHSL 3 A 23 (20- 3- 0) 0.788 0.1041
60 MN 992.0043 BloomingtonJefferson MSHSL 2 AA 25 (12-13- 0) 0.731 0.0895
61 MN 991.9922 NewUlm MSHSL 3 A 24 (21- 3- 0) 0.766 0.0985
62 MN 991.9735 PriorLake MSHSL 2 AA 25 ( 6-18- 1) 0.748 0.0938
63 MN 991.8493 Owatonna MSHSL 1 AA 25 (15- 8- 2) 0.738 0.0914
64 WI 991.7098 BayArea WIAA 2 A 23 (20- 2- 1) 0.896 0.1345
65 MN 991.6718 RiverLakes MSHSL 6 A 25 (14-11- 0) 0.739 0.0915
66 MN 991.6120 MooseLakeArea MSHSL 7 A 25 (18- 6- 1) 0.736 0.0908
67 MN 991.5381 NorthSt.Paul/Tartan MSHSL 4 AA 24 (15- 9- 0) 0.745 0.0930
68 MN 991.4752 TwoRivers/St.Paul MSHSL 4 A 25 (13-11- 1) 0.730 0.0894
69 WI 991.4067 FoxCitiesStars WIAA 2 A 22 (18- 3- 1) 0.900 0.1357
70 MN 991.2884 Armstrong/Cooper MSHSL 6 AA 25 (11-13- 1) 0.698 0.0817
71 MN 991.1279 Buffalo MSHSL 8 AA 25 ( 5-18- 2) 0.716 0.0860
72 MN 991.1112 Hibbing/Chisholm MSHSL 7 A 25 (11-12- 2) 0.730 0.0893
73 MN 991.0980 NewPrague MSHSL 2 AA 25 (10-12- 3) 0.737 0.0910
74 MN 991.0598 MinnehahaUnited MSHSL 6 AA 24 (17- 7- 0) 0.744 0.0929
75 MN 990.8243 MNIceCougars19U NGHL 0 T1 3 ( 3- 0- 0) 2.221 0.8273
76 MN 990.7233 Willmar MSHSL 6 A 25 (13-12- 0) 0.747 0.0935
77 MN 990.6888 Delano/Rockford MSHSL 5 A 25 (13-11- 1) 0.729 0.0891
78 WI 990.5526 CentralWisconsin WIAA 1 A 21 (18- 3- 0) 0.893 0.1337
79 MN 990.5387 Crookston MSHSL 8 A 22 (14- 7- 1) 0.769 0.0990
80 MN 990.4707 WhiteBearLake MSHSL 4 AA 25 ( 5-19- 1) 0.720 0.0869
81 MN 990.4466 Duluth MSHSL 7 AA 24 ( 6-18- 0) 0.728 0.0889
82 MN 990.4408 Hastings MSHSL 3 AA 25 ( 8-16- 1) 0.730 0.0894
83 MN 990.4221 MankatoEast MSHSL 2 A 24 (19- 5- 0) 0.766 0.0984
84 MN 990.3882 ParkofCottageGrove MSHSL 3 AA 25 ( 8-17- 0) 0.730 0.0893
85 MN 990.3136 Breck MSHSL 5 A 21 ( 1-19- 1) 0.751 0.0946
86 ND 990.2906 Minot NDHSL 0 A 19 (12- 7- 0) 0.964 0.1557
87 ND 990.2744 Bismarck NDHSL 0 A 19 (10- 5- 4) 0.945 0.1498
88 WI 990.0388 WesternWisconsin WIAA 1 A 23 (16- 7- 0) 0.818 0.1121
89 MN 990.0237 Sartell/SaukRapids MSHSL 8 AA 25 ( 6-17- 2) 0.736 0.0909
90 WI 989.9677 MetroLynx WIAA 2 A 21 (18- 3- 0) 0.935 0.1466
91 MN 989.7635 Bemidji MSHSL 8 AA 24 ( 4-18- 2) 0.736 0.0908
92 MN 989.7544 Hopkins/Park MSHSL 6 AA 25 ( 7-18- 0) 0.719 0.0866
93 ND 989.5882 WestFargoUnited NDHSL 0 A 19 (11- 5- 3) 0.956 0.1532
94 ND 989.5852 Mandan NDHSL 0 A 17 (10- 6- 1) 1.012 0.1718
95 MN 989.3377 NorthernLakes MSHSL 6 A 25 (14-10- 1) 0.744 0.0927
96 WI 989.1099 St.CroixValley WIAA 1 A 22 (14- 8- 0) 0.844 0.1195
97 WI 988.9762 Onalaska WIAA 2 A 21 (17- 4- 0) 0.884 0.1311
98 MN 988.9395 EastGrandForks MSHSL 8 A 19 ( 6-13- 0) 0.814 0.1111
99 WI 988.8153 Warbirds WIAA 2 A 21 (13- 7- 1) 0.910 0.1387
100 WI 988.7054 HaywardCo-Op WIAA 1 A 23 (15- 8- 0) 0.846 0.1200
101 WI 988.5785 Hudson WIAA 1 A 20 ( 9-11- 0) 0.817 0.1118
102 MN 988.3378 ThiefRiverFalls MSHSL 8 A 23 ( 5-16- 2) 0.758 0.0963
103 MN 988.3207 PineCityArea MSHSL 5 A 24 ( 9-14- 1) 0.743 0.0926
104 MN 988.2645 Litchfield/Dassel-Cokato MSHSL 2 A 25 (11-13- 1) 0.744 0.0929
105 MN 988.2035 Visitation MSHSL 4 A 23 (11-11- 1) 0.751 0.0946
106 MN 988.0945 NorthernTier MSHSL 7 AA 24 ( 5-19- 0) 0.730 0.0894
107 MN 988.0939 Irondale/St.Anthony MSHSL 5 AA 25 ( 4-20- 1) 0.726 0.0882
108 SD 987.9396 SiouxFalls SDAHA 0 A 19 (16- 3- 0) 1.377 0.3178
109 ND 987.9072 GrandForks NDHSL 0 A 20 ( 7-12- 1) 0.953 0.1524
110 MN 987.8143 Mahtomedi MSHSL 4 AA 24 ( 3-21- 0) 0.735 0.0905
111 MN 987.7916 Marshall MSHSL 3 A 25 (11-13- 1) 0.766 0.0984
112 ND 987.7810 Jamestown NDHSL 0 A 18 ( 8- 8- 2) 1.008 0.1703
113 WI 987.7266 CFMSabers WIAA 1 A 20 (11- 9- 0) 0.871 0.1270
114 MN 987.4365 Hutchinson MSHSL 2 A 24 ( 3-20- 1) 0.740 0.0918
115 MN 987.4041 AlbertLea MSHSL 1 A 23 (12-10- 1) 0.771 0.0996
116 WI 987.2963 SuperiorSpartans WIAA 1 A 23 ( 7-16- 0) 0.777 0.1012
117 WI 987.2058 USMWildcats WIAA 2 A 22 (12- 9- 1) 0.871 0.1271
118 MN 987.0185 MinnesotaRiver MSHSL 2 A 24 (12-12- 0) 0.779 0.1018
119 MN 986.9924 Waconia MSHSL 2 A 24 ( 4-19- 1) 0.743 0.0925
120 WI 986.8011 BlackRiverFalls WIAA 1 A 23 (10-13- 0) 0.873 0.1277
121 MN 986.7738 RockRidge MSHSL 7 A 23 ( 7-16- 0) 0.751 0.0945
122 NE 986.7666 OmahaLadyJrLancers19U NGHL 0 T1 4 ( 1- 3- 0) 2.082 0.7270
123 MN 986.7657 Austin MSHSL 1 A 23 (13-10- 0) 0.786 0.1036
124 WI 986.7554 Lightning WIAA 2 A 20 ( 9-10- 1) 0.937 0.1473
125 WI 986.7086 EauClaireArea WIAA 1 A 22 ( 4-17- 1) 0.871 0.1271
126 MN 986.3972 NorthShore MSHSL 7 A 25 ( 7-18- 0) 0.744 0.0929
127 WI 986.3848 Viroqua WIAA 2 A 18 ( 9- 8- 1) 0.967 0.1566
128 MN 986.1877 RochesterMayo MSHSL 1 AA 25 ( 9-16- 0) 0.761 0.0971
129 SD 986.0138 Mitchell SDAHA 0 A 16 (14- 2- 0) 1.469 0.3617
130 WI 985.9440 Icebergs WIAA 2 A 20 ( 8-12- 0) 0.948 0.1507
131 WI 985.7653 CapCityCougars WIAA 2 A 22 (12-10- 0) 0.931 0.1452
132 WI 985.6117 NorthlandPines WIAA 1 A 17 ( 9- 8- 0) 0.954 0.1525
133 WI 985.0792 RockCounty WIAA 2 A 22 ( 7-13- 2) 0.922 0.1425
134 MN 984.9782 MinnetonkaSkippers19U MAHA 0 B 6 ( 3- 1- 2) 2.296 0.8836
135 MN 984.8344 Windom MSHSL 3 A 21 ( 8-13- 0) 0.810 0.1101
136 MN 984.8070 RochesterCentury MSHSL 1 AA 24 ( 6-17- 1) 0.761 0.0970
137 ND 984.6972 Williston NDHSL 0 A 18 ( 3-14- 1) 1.010 0.1709
138 MN 984.6334 Breckenridge-Wahpeton MSHSL 6 A 10 ( 5- 5- 0) 0.973 0.1586
139 MN 984.4145 Fairmont MSHSL 3 A 21 ( 6-12- 3) 0.810 0.1101
140 MN 984.2793 Princeton MSHSL 7 AA 25 ( 2-23- 0) 0.731 0.0896
141 WI 983.7464 Brookfield WIAA 2 A 22 ( 6-15- 1) 0.912 0.1394
142 WI 983.4800 BadgerLightning WIAA 2 A 19 ( 7-12- 0) 0.966 0.1564
143 MN 983.4782 BlaineIceCats19U MAHA 0 B 12 ( 6- 4- 2) 2.007 0.6752
144 SD 983.4560 Aberdeen SDAHA 0 A 20 (12- 8- 0) 1.343 0.3023
145 ND 983.4140 Dickinson NDHSL 0 A 16 ( 4-12- 0) 1.037 0.1803
146 WI 983.1804 Arrowhead WIAA 2 A 18 ( 4-14- 0) 0.956 0.1533
147 MN 983.0764 RedWing MSHSL 4 A 23 ( 4-19- 0) 0.763 0.0976
148 WI 982.8549 WisValleyUnion WIAA 1 A 21 ( 3-18- 0) 0.898 0.1353
149 MN 982.6683 MankatoWest MSHSL 2 A 24 ( 4-19- 1) 0.772 0.0999
150 MN 982.6642 Waseca MSHSL 1 A 24 ( 4-18- 2) 0.778 0.1015
151 WI 982.5840 NorthernEdge WIAA 1 A 11 ( 1-10- 0) 1.052 0.1855
152 MN 982.4662 Worthington MSHSL 3 A 23 ( 5-18- 0) 0.793 0.1053
153 ND 982.1505 Langdon19U NDAHA 0 B 15 (13- 2- 0) 1.399 0.3279
154 MN 981.9782 EdinaHornets19U MAHA 0 B 5 ( 1- 4- 0) 2.296 0.8836
155 MN 981.9110 PrairieCentre MSHSL 6 A 22 ( 5-16- 1) 0.777 0.1011
156 ND 981.8700 Bottineau19U NDAHA 0 B 25 (15- 9- 1) 1.222 0.2503
157 MN 981.7617 Winona MSHSL 1 A 17 ( 0-17- 0) 0.839 0.1180
158 IL 981.5656 ChicagoHawks16U NIHL 0 T2 4 ( 3- 0- 1) 1.998 0.6692
159 ND 981.3162 Minot19U NDAHA 0 B 9 ( 8- 1- 0) 1.494 0.3740
160 NE 981.0656 OmahaLadyJrLancers16U NGHL 0 T2 4 ( 2- 1- 1) 1.998 0.6692
161 ND 980.9552 Mandan19U NDAHA 0 B 18 (11- 6- 1) 1.362 0.3111
162 ND 980.9119 DevilsLake NDHSL 0 A 18 ( 2-16- 0) 0.993 0.1653
163 SD 980.6959 Oahe SDAHA 0 A 16 ( 4- 9- 3) 1.480 0.3670
164 ND 980.6309 Williston19U NDAHA 0 B 14 ( 8- 6- 0) 1.402 0.3295
165 SD 980.6045 Brookings SDAHA 0 A 17 ( 8- 9- 0) 1.429 0.3425
166 SD 980.2121 SiouxCenter SDAHA 0 A 16 ( 3-12- 1) 1.469 0.3616
167 ND 980.1089 Crosby19U NDAHA 0 B 11 ( 4- 6- 1) 1.453 0.3538
168 MN 979.9411 Morris/BensonArea MSHSL 6 A 22 ( 2-19- 1) 0.778 0.1015
169 SD 979.8466 Watertown SDAHA 0 A 19 (10- 9- 0) 1.466 0.3601
170 SD 979.4614 Huron SDAHA 0 A 16 ( 5-10- 1) 1.471 0.3626
171 SD 979.4469 Rushmore SDAHA 0 A 16 ( 6-10- 0) 1.479 0.3667
172 ND 979.2910 WatfordCity19U NDAHA 0 B 18 ( 6-12- 0) 1.318 0.2913
173 MN 979.2299 DetroitLakes MSHSL 8 A 23 ( 4-19- 0) 0.768 0.0989
174 WI 979.0718 Medford WIAA 1 A 15 ( 2-13- 0) 0.981 0.1615
175 ND 979.0030 Bismarck19U NDAHA 0 B 14 ( 4-10- 0) 1.412 0.3342
176 SD 978.2846 Yankton SDAHA 0 A 19 ( 1-17- 1) 1.460 0.3574
177 MN 978.1653 InternationalFalls MSHSL 8 A 20 ( 0-20- 0) 0.791 0.1049
178 ND 977.1041 Northwood19U NDAHA 0 B 16 ( 3-13- 0) 1.390 0.3241
179 WI 976.3037 BeaverDam WIAA 2 A 17 ( 0-17- 0) 0.989 0.1639
180 MN 974.9552 Duluth19U MAHA 0 B 1 ( 0- 1- 0) 2.796 1.3111
181 ND 973.2200 Richland19U NDAHA 0 B 12 ( 0-12- 0) 1.426 0.3410
LSQRANK
Posts: 415 Joined: Fri Nov 21, 2014 6:05 pm
Post
by LSQRANK » Mon Feb 07, 2022 12:04 am
1st round Calculations for section 1AA
Code: Select all
LSQRANK State Score Team LG SECCLS GP (WW-LL-TT) Sxx Qxx
===================================================================================================
10 MN 996.8110 LakevilleSouth MSHSL 1 AA 25 (23- 2- 0) 0.747 0.0934
35 MN 993.6948 LakevilleNorth MSHSL 1 AA 25 (11-13- 1) 0.752 0.0947
38 MN 993.4321 Northfield MSHSL 1 AA 24 (16- 5- 3) 0.744 0.0928
39 MN 993.4180 Farmington MSHSL 1 AA 25 (11-14- 0) 0.748 0.0937
48 MN 992.9448 DodgeCounty MSHSL 1 AA 26 (15-11- 0) 0.721 0.0871
63 MN 991.8493 Owatonna MSHSL 1 AA 25 (15- 8- 2) 0.738 0.0914
128 MN 986.1877 RochesterMayo MSHSL 1 AA 25 ( 9-16- 0) 0.761 0.0971
136 MN 984.8070 RochesterCentury MSHSL 1 AA 24 ( 6-17- 1) 0.761 0.0970
95% MOE = ~ 1.5 goals
1AA seedings 1st round numerical predictions
-------------------- ------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Lakeville South RochesterCentury @ LakevilleSouth LVS win by 12 goals
2 Northfield RochesterMayo @ Northfield NFLD win by 7 goals
3 Farmington Owatonna @ Farmington FARM win by 2 goals
4 Lakeville North DodgeCounty @ LakevilleNorth LVN* or DC win by 1 goals in OT
5 Dodge County
6 Owatonna *slight edge to LVN
7 Rochester Mayo
8 Rochester Century
LSQRANK
Posts: 415 Joined: Fri Nov 21, 2014 6:05 pm
Post
by LSQRANK » Mon Feb 07, 2022 12:18 am
round 1 calculations foe section 2AA
Code: Select all
LSQRANK State Score Team LG SECCLS GP (WW-LL-TT) Sxx Qxx
===================================================================================================
3 MN 999.0556 Minnetonka MSHSL 2 AA 25 (19- 6- 0) 0.684 0.0785
4 MN 997.6774 HolyFamily MSHSL 2 AA 25 (20- 4- 1) 0.712 0.0851
33 MN 993.9076 EdenPrairie MSHSL 2 AA 24 ( 8-16- 0) 0.721 0.0871
34 MN 993.8616 Shakopee MSHSL 2 AA 25 (10-15- 0) 0.745 0.0929
37 MN 993.4794 Chaska/Chanhassen MSHSL 2 AA 25 (11-14- 0) 0.730 0.0893
60 MN 992.0043 BloomingtonJefferson MSHSL 2 AA 25 (12-13- 0) 0.731 0.0895
62 MN 991.9735 PriorLake MSHSL 2 AA 25 ( 6-18- 1) 0.748 0.0938
73 MN 991.0980 NewPrague MSHSL 2 AA 25 (10-12- 3) 0.737 0.0910
2AA seedings 1st round numerical predictions
---------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Minnetonka NewPrague @ Minnetonka MNTK win by 8 goals
2 Holy Family PriorLake @ HolyFamily HF win by 6 goals
3 Shakopee BloomingtonJefferson @ Shakopee SKP win by 2 goals
4 Eden Prairie Chaska/Chanhassen @ EdenPrairie EP or CC win by 1 goal in OT
5 Chaska/Chanhassen
6 Jefferson
7 Prior Lake
8 New Prague
LSQRANK
Posts: 415 Joined: Fri Nov 21, 2014 6:05 pm
Post
by LSQRANK » Mon Feb 07, 2022 12:33 am
round 1 calculations for section 3AA
Code: Select all
LSQRANK State Score Team LG SECCLS GP (WW-LL-TT) Sxx Qxx
===================================================================================================
18 MN 995.8732 Burnsville MSHSL 3 AA 25 (19- 5- 1) 0.745 0.0931
21 MN 995.2051 Rosemount MSHSL 3 AA 25 (17- 8- 0) 0.748 0.0939
23 MN 994.9422 Cretin-DerhamHall MSHSL 3 AA 25 (16- 7- 2) 0.721 0.0872
32 MN 993.9329 Eastview MSHSL 3 AA 24 (11-12- 1) 0.755 0.0957
50 MN 992.7154 AppleValley MSHSL 3 AA 25 (10-13- 2) 0.746 0.0934
56 MN 992.1364 Eagan MSHSL 3 AA 25 ( 5-19- 1) 0.747 0.0936
82 MN 990.4408 Hastings MSHSL 3 AA 25 ( 8-16- 1) 0.730 0.0894
84 MN 990.3882 ParkofCottageGrove MSHSL 3 AA 25 ( 8-17- 0) 0.730 0.0893
3AA seedings 1st round numerical predictions
---------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Burnsville ParkofCottageGrove @ Burnsville BSV win by 5 goals
2 Cretin-Derham Hall Hastings @ Cretin-DerhamHall CDH win by 4 goals
3 Rosemount Eagan @ Rosemount RSMT win by 3 goals
4 Eastview AppleValley @ *Eastview ESTV win by 1 goal in reg
5 Apple Valley or APV win by 1 goal in OT
6 Eagan
7 Hastings *edge to Eastview
8 Park Cottage Grove 95% CI [ -0.3 to +2.7 ]
LSQRANK
Posts: 415 Joined: Fri Nov 21, 2014 6:05 pm
Post
by LSQRANK » Mon Feb 07, 2022 12:52 am
round 1 calculations for section 4 AA
Code: Select all
LSQRANK State Score Team LG SECCLS GP (WW-LL-TT) Sxx Qxx
===================================================================================================
8 MN 997.1430 GentryAcademy MSHSL 4 AA 24 (18- 6- 0) 0.707 0.0839
12 MN 996.6281 Hill-Murray MSHSL 4 AA 24 (16- 8- 0) 0.704 0.0832
15 MN 996.2218 Stillwater MSHSL 4 AA 24 (13- 9- 2) 0.712 0.0851
27 MN 994.3128 Roseville MSHSL 4 AA 25 (15- 8- 2) 0.719 0.0866
40 MN 993.3624 EastRidge MSHSL 4 AA 25 (14-10- 1) 0.727 0.0886
58 MN 992.1179 Woodbury MSHSL 4 AA 25 (14-11- 0) 0.727 0.0885
67 MN 991.5381 NorthSt.Paul/Tartan MSHSL 4 AA 24 (15- 9- 0) 0.745 0.0930
80 MN 990.4707 WhiteBearLake MSHSL 4 AA 25 ( 5-19- 1) 0.720 0.0869
110 MN 987.8143 Mahtomedi MSHSL 4 AA 24 ( 3-21- 0) 0.735 0.0905
Play-In round: WhiteBearLake wins by 2 to 3 goals over Mahtomedi
3AA seedings 1st round numerical predictions # Home Ice for both teams at Vandais
---------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Gentry Academy #WhiteBearLake @ #GentryAcademy GA win by 7 goals
2 Stillwater NorthSt.Paul/Tartan @ Stillwater STW win by 5 goals
3 Hill-Murray Woodbury @ Hill-Murray HM win by 3 to 6 goals
4 Roseville EastRidge @ *Roseville RSV win by 1 goal in reg
5 East Ridge or ESR ein by 1 goal in OT
6 Woodbury
7 North/Tartan *edge to Roseville
8 White Bear Lake 95% CI [ -0.5 to +2.5 ]
9 Mahtomedi
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Posts: 415 Joined: Fri Nov 21, 2014 6:05 pm
Post
by LSQRANK » Mon Feb 07, 2022 10:36 am
1st round Calculations for section 6AA
Code: Select all
LSQRANK State Score Team LG SECCLS GP (WW-LL-TT) Sxx Qxx
===================================================================================================
2 MN 999.3031 Edina MSHSL 6 AA 25 (23- 2- 0) 0.697 0.0814
6 MN 997.5679 Wayzata MSHSL 6 AA 25 (16- 8- 1) 0.695 0.0810
7 MN 997.5331 Benilde-St.Margaret's MSHSL 6 AA 24 (18- 5- 1) 0.711 0.0847
16 MN 996.0761 Blake MSHSL 6 AA 23 (13-10- 0) 0.716 0.0859
70 MN 991.2884 Armstrong/Cooper MSHSL 6 AA 25 (11-13- 1) 0.698 0.0817
74 MN 991.0598 MinnehahaUnited MSHSL 6 AA 24 (17- 7- 0) 0.744 0.0929
92 MN 989.7544 Hopkins/Park MSHSL 6 AA 25 ( 7-18- 0) 0.719 0.0866
6AA seedings 1st round numerical predictions
---------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Edina Edina Edina 1st-RD-Bye
2 Wayzata Hopkins/Park @ Wayzata WAY win by 8 goals
3 Benilde St Margarets MinnehahaUnited @ Benilde-St.Margaret's BSM win by 5 to 8 goals
4 Blake Armstrong/Cooper 2 Blake BLAKE win by 5 goals
5 Armstrong/Cooper
6 United
7 Hopkins/Park
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Posts: 415 Joined: Fri Nov 21, 2014 6:05 pm
Post
by LSQRANK » Mon Feb 07, 2022 10:44 am
1st round calculations for section 7AA
Code: Select all
LSQRANK State Score Team LG SECCLS GP (WW-LL-TT) Sxx Qxx
===================================================================================================
1 MN 1000.0000 Andover MSHSL 7 AA 24 (24- 0- 0) 0.000 0.0000
20 MN 995.3119 ElkRiver/Zimmerman MSHSL 7 AA 25 (12-12- 1) 0.691 0.0801
24 MN 994.8649 Blaine MSHSL 7 AA 25 (11-11- 3) 0.693 0.0805
25 MN 994.7056 GrandRapids-Greenway MSHSL 7 AA 25 (17- 8- 0) 0.704 0.0831
45 MN 993.1179 ForestLake MSHSL 7 AA 25 (13-12- 0) 0.708 0.0841
57 MN 992.1320 Anoka MSHSL 7 AA 25 ( 7-18- 0) 0.695 0.0810
81 MN 990.4466 Duluth MSHSL 7 AA 24 ( 6-18- 0) 0.728 0.0889
106 MN 988.0945 NorthernTier MSHSL 7 AA 24 ( 5-19- 0) 0.730 0.0894
140 MN 984.2793 Princeton MSHSL 7 AA 25 ( 2-23- 0) 0.731 0.0896
Play-In round: NorthernTier wins by 4 goals over Princeton
7AA seedings 1st round numerical predictions
---------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Andover NorthernTier @ Andover AND win by 12 goals
2 Grand Rapids/Greenway Duluth @ GrandRapids-Greenway GRG win by 4 goals
3 Elk River Anoka @ ElkRiver/Zimmerman ERZ win by 3 goals
4 Blaine ForestLake @ Blaine BLAINE win by 2 goals
5 Forest Lake
6 Anoka
7 Duluth
8 Northern Tier
9 Princeton
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Posts: 415 Joined: Fri Nov 21, 2014 6:05 pm
Post
by LSQRANK » Mon Feb 07, 2022 8:28 pm
1st round calculations for section 8AA
Code: Select all
LSQRANK State Score Team LG SECCLS GP (WW-LL-TT) Sxx Qxx
===================================================================================================
28 MN 994.3077 Moorhead MSHSL 8 AA 25 (17- 8- 0) 0.723 0.0877
31 MN 994.0113 Alexandria MSHSL 8 AA 23 (12-10- 1) 0.744 0.0928
36 MN 993.6805 Brainerd/LittleFalls MSHSL 8 AA 24 (13-11- 0) 0.734 0.0903
42 MN 993.2036 Roseau MSHSL 8 AA 24 (14- 8- 2) 0.735 0.0907
52 MN 992.4617 St.Cloud MSHSL 8 AA 24 (13- 9- 2) 0.744 0.0927
71 MN 991.1279 Buffalo MSHSL 8 AA 25 ( 5-18- 2) 0.716 0.0860
89 MN 990.0237 Sartell/SaukRapids MSHSL 8 AA 25 ( 6-17- 2) 0.736 0.0909
91 MN 989.7635 Bemidji MSHSL 8 AA 24 ( 4-18- 2) 0.736 0.0908
8AA seedings Section [WW-LL-TT] 1st round numerical predictions [95% CI]
---------------- ------- ---------- ---------------------------------------------------------------
1 Moorhead 8-2-0 (17- 8- 0) Bemidji @ Moorhead MOOR wins by 3 to 6 goals
2 Alexandria 6-2-1 (13-10- 1) Buffalo @ Alexandria ALEX wins by 2 to 4 goals
3 Brainerd/LittleFalls 7-4-0 (13-11- 0) Sartell/SaukRapids @ Brainerd BRND wins by 2 to 5 goals
4 Roseau 5-4-1 (14- 9- 2) St.Cloud @ Roseau *ROS wins by [-1 to 2] goals OT
5 St.Cloud 3-4-2 (13- 9- 2)
6 Sartell/SaukRapids 1-7-2 ( 6-17- 2) *ROS & STC tied T 3-3 in their only H2H meeting @ROS
7 Buffalo 1-4-2 ( 5-18- 2)
8 Bemidji 1-7-0 ( 4-19- 2)
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Post
by LSQRANK » Mon Feb 07, 2022 8:31 pm
1st Round Calculations for Class 'single' A
Code: Select all
LSQRANK State Score Team LG SECCLS GP (WW-LL-TT) Sxx Qxx
===================================================================================================
115 MN 987.4041 AlbertLea MSHSL 1 A 23 (12-10- 1) 0.771 0.0996
123 MN 986.7657 Austin MSHSL 1 A 23 (13-10- 0) 0.786 0.1036
150 MN 982.6642 Waseca MSHSL 1 A 24 ( 4-18- 2) 0.778 0.1015
157 MN 981.7617 Winona MSHSL 1 A 17 ( 0-17- 0) 0.839 0.1180
1A seedings 1st round numerical predictions [95% CI]
---------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Albert Lea Winona @ AlbertLea ABL wins by 4 to 7 goals
2 Austin Waseca @ Austin AUS wins by 3 to 5 goals
3 Waseca
4 Winona
LSQRANK State Score Team LG SECCLS GP (WW-LL-TT) Sxx Qxx
===================================================================================================
83 MN 990.4221 MankatoEast MSHSL 2 A 24 (19- 5- 0) 0.766 0.0984
104 MN 988.2645 Litchfield/Dassel-Cokato MSHSL 2 A 25 (11-13- 1) 0.744 0.0929
114 MN 987.4365 Hutchinson MSHSL 2 A 24 ( 3-20- 1) 0.740 0.0918
118 MN 987.0185 MinnesotaRiver MSHSL 2 A 24 (12-12- 0) 0.779 0.1018
119 MN 986.9924 Waconia MSHSL 2 A 24 ( 4-19- 1) 0.743 0.0925
149 MN 982.6683 MankatoWest MSHSL 2 A 24 ( 4-19- 1) 0.772 0.0999
2A seedings 1st round numerical predictions [95% CI]
---------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Mankato East BYE @ MankatoEast MKE BYE
2 Litchfield BYE @ Litchfield/Dassel-Cokato LDC BYE
3 Minnesota River MankatoWest @ MinnesotaRiver MNR wins by 3 to 6 goals
4 Hutchinson Waconia @ Hutchinson *HUT wins by [-1 to 2] goals
5 Waconia *WAC wins by 1 goal in reg or OT
6 Mankato West
LSQRANK State Score Team LG SECCLS GP (WW-LL-TT) Sxx Qxx
===================================================================================================
59 MN 992.1013 Luverne MSHSL 3 A 23 (20- 3- 0) 0.788 0.1041
61 MN 991.9922 NewUlm MSHSL 3 A 24 (21- 3- 0) 0.766 0.0985
111 MN 987.7916 Marshall MSHSL 3 A 25 (11-13- 1) 0.766 0.0984
135 MN 984.8344 Windom MSHSL 3 A 21 ( 8-13- 0) 0.810 0.1101
139 MN 984.4145 Fairmont MSHSL 3 A 21 ( 6-12- 3) 0.810 0.1101
152 MN 982.4662 Worthington MSHSL 3 A 23 ( 5-18- 0) 0.793 0.1053
3A seedings 1st round numerical predictions [95% CI]
---------------- ---------------------------------------------------------------
1 New Ulm BYE @ NewUlm NewUlm BYE
2 Luverne BYE @ Luverne Luverne BYE
3 Marshall Worthington @ Marshall Marshall wins by 4 to 7 goals
4 Windom Fairmont @ Windom *Windom wins by [-1 to 2] goals
5 Fairmont *Fairmont wins by 1 goal in reg or OT
6 Worthington
LSQRANK State Score Team LG SECCLS GP (WW-LL-TT) Sxx Qxx
===================================================================================================
30 MN 994.1120 Simley MSHSL 4 A 25 (18- 4- 3) 0.731 0.0896
44 MN 993.1713 SouthStPaul MSHSL 4 A 25 (13-10- 2) 0.725 0.0882
51 MN 992.4880 ChisagoLakes MSHSL 4 A 25 (11-13- 1) 0.720 0.0868
68 MN 991.4752 TwoRivers/St.Paul MSHSL 4 A 25 (13-11- 1) 0.730 0.0894
105 MN 988.2035 Visitation MSHSL 4 A 23 (11-11- 1) 0.751 0.0946
147 MN 983.0764 RedWing MSHSL 4 A 23 ( 4-19- 0) 0.763 0.0976
4A seedings 1st round numerical predictions [95% CI]
---------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Simley BYE @ Simley SIM BYE
2 South Saint Paul BYE @ SouthStPaul SSP BYE
3 St Paul/Two Rivers RedWing @ TwoRivers/St.Paul TRSP wins by 7 to 10 goals
4 Chisago Lakes Visitation @ ChisagoLakes CHL wins by 3 to 6 goals
5 Visitation
6 Red Wing
LSQRANK State Score Team LG SECCLS GP (WW-LL-TT) Sxx Qxx
===================================================================================================
11 MN 996.7978 Orono MSHSL 5 A 25 (22- 3- 0) 0.728 0.0889
22 MN 994.9724 HolyAngels MSHSL 5 A 25 (20- 4- 1) 0.732 0.0897
26 MN 994.3860 MoundWestonka MSHSL 5 A 25 (19- 6- 0) 0.727 0.0885
54 MN 992.2759 Minneapolis MSHSL 5 A 25 ( 8-16- 1) 0.732 0.0898
77 MN 990.6888 Delano/Rockford MSHSL 5 A 25 (13-11- 1) 0.729 0.0891
85 MN 990.3136 Breck MSHSL 5 A 21 ( 1-19- 1) 0.751 0.0946
103 MN 988.3207 PineCityArea MSHSL 5 A 24 ( 9-14- 1) 0.743 0.0926
5A seedings 1st round numerical predictions [95% CI]
---------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Orono BYE @ Orono ORO BYE
2 Holy Angels PineCityArea @ HolyAngels HA wins by 5 to 8 goals
3 Mound/Westonka Breck @ MoundWestonka MWT wins by 3 to 5 goals
4 Minneapolis Delano @ Minneapolis MSP wins by 1 to 3 goals
5 Delano
6 Breck
7 Pine City
LSQRANK State Score Team LG SECCLS GP (WW-LL-TT) Sxx Qxx
===================================================================================================
53 MN 992.3681 FergusFalls MSHSL 6 A 24 (18- 4- 2) 0.744 0.0929
65 MN 991.6718 RiverLakes MSHSL 6 A 25 (14-11- 0) 0.739 0.0915
76 MN 990.7233 Willmar MSHSL 6 A 25 (13-12- 0) 0.747 0.0935
95 MN 989.3377 NorthernLakes MSHSL 6 A 25 (14-10- 1) 0.744 0.0927
138 MN 984.6334 Breckenridge-Wahpeton MSHSL 6 A 10 ( 5- 5- 0) 0.973 0.1586
155 MN 981.9110 PrairieCentre MSHSL 6 A 22 ( 5-16- 1) 0.777 0.1011
168 MN 979.9411 Morris/BensonArea MSHSL 6 A 22 ( 2-19- 1) 0.778 0.1015
6A seedings 1st round numerical predictions [95% CI]
---------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Fergus Falls BYE @ FergusFalls FF BYE
2 River Lakes BYE @ RiverLakes RL BYE
3 Northern Lakes Morris/BensonArea @ NorthernLakes NL wins by 8 to 11 goals
4 Willmar PrairieCentre @ Willmar WIL wins by 8 to 10 goals
5 Prairie Centre
6 Morris-Benson
LSQRANK State Score Team LG SECCLS GP (WW-LL-TT) Sxx Qxx
===================================================================================================
19 MN 995.8353 Proctor/Hermantown MSHSL 7 A 25 (16- 7- 2) 0.703 0.0828
41 MN 993.3344 DuluthMarshall MSHSL 7 A 22 (15- 7- 0) 0.750 0.0943
55 MN 992.1539 Cloquet-Esko-Carlton MSHSL 7 A 25 (18- 6- 1) 0.726 0.0884
66 MN 991.6120 MooseLakeArea MSHSL 7 A 25 (18- 6- 1) 0.736 0.0908
72 MN 991.1112 Hibbing/Chisholm MSHSL 7 A 25 (11-12- 2) 0.730 0.0893
121 MN 986.7738 RockRidge MSHSL 7 A 23 ( 7-16- 0) 0.751 0.0945
126 MN 986.3972 NorthShore MSHSL 7 A 25 ( 7-18- 0) 0.744 0.0929
7A seedings 1st round numerical predictions [95% CI]
---------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Proctor/Hermantown BYE @ Proctor/Hermantown P/HT BYE
2 Duluth Marshall RockRidge @ DuluthMarshall DM wins by 5 to 8 goals
3 CEC NorthShore @ Cloquet-Esko-Carlton CEC wins by 5 to 7 goals
4 Moose Lake Hibbing/Chisholm @ MooseLakeArea *HIB or MLA wins by 1 goal in OT
5 Hibbing-Chisholm
6 North Shore *95% MOE ~ 1.5 goals either team may win
7 Eveleth-Gilbert *95% CI ~ [ -1 ... 2 ] Interval includes "0"
LSQRANK State Score Team LG SECCLS GP (WW-LL-TT) Sxx Qxx
===================================================================================================
5 MN 997.6741 Warroad MSHSL 8 A 24 (20- 3- 1) 0.699 0.0818
79 MN 990.5387 Crookston MSHSL 8 A 22 (14- 7- 1) 0.769 0.0990
98 MN 988.9395 EastGrandForks MSHSL 8 A 19 ( 6-13- 0) 0.814 0.1111
102 MN 988.3378 ThiefRiverFalls MSHSL 8 A 23 ( 5-16- 2) 0.758 0.0963
173 MN 979.2299 DetroitLakes MSHSL 8 A 23 ( 4-19- 0) 0.768 0.0989
177 MN 978.1653 InternationalFalls MSHSL 8 A 20 ( 0-20- 0) 0.791 0.1049
8A seedings 1st round numerical predictions [95% CI]
---------------- -------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Warroad BYE @ Warroad WARR BYE
2 Crookston BYE @ Crookston CRK BYE
3 EastGrandForks IFalls @ EastGrandForks EGF wins by 10 to 12 goals
4 ThiefRiverFalls DetroitLakes @ ThiefRiverFalls TRF wins by 8 to 10 goals
5 DetroitLakes
6 InternationalFalls
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Post
by LSQRANK » Mon Feb 07, 2022 9:31 pm
1st round calculations for section 5AA
Code: Select all
LSQRANK State Score Team LG SECCLS GP (WW-LL-TT) Sxx Qxx
===================================================================================================
9 MN 996.8679 MapleGrove MSHSL 5 AA 25 (17- 6- 2) 0.678 0.0770
13 MN 996.5379 Rogers MSHSL 5 AA 25 (19- 4- 2) 0.694 0.0807
14 MN 996.2374 Centennial/SpringLakePark MSHSL 5 AA 25 (16- 8- 1) 0.691 0.0801
17 MN 995.8836 NorthWrightCounty MSHSL 5 AA 25 (14-10- 1) 0.711 0.0847
29 MN 994.1265 ChamplinPark/CoonRapids MSHSL 5 AA 25 (13-11- 1) 0.693 0.0806
43 MN 993.1737 Osseo/ParkCenter MSHSL 5 AA 25 (11-14- 0) 0.696 0.0813
47 MN 992.9958 MoundsView MSHSL 5 AA 24 (12-12- 0) 0.728 0.0888
107 MN 988.0939 Irondale/St.Anthony MSHSL 5 AA 25 ( 4-20- 1) 0.726 0.0882
5AA seedings 1st round numerical predictions [95% CI]
---------------- -------------------------------------------------------------------
1 MapleGrove Irondale/St.Anthony @ MapleGrove MG win by 8 to 10 goals
2 Rogers MoundsView @ Rogers ROG win by 2 to 5 goals
3 Centennial Osseo/ParkCenter @ Centennial CSP win by 2 to 4 goals
4 NorthWrightCounty ChamplinPark/CR @ NorthWrightCounty NWC win by 1 to 3 goals
5 ChamplinPark/CR
6 Osseo/ParkCenter
7 MoundsView
8 Irondale/St.Anthony
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Post
by LSQRANK » Mon Feb 07, 2022 9:32 pm
1st Round Calculations for Class 'double' AA
Code: Select all
LSQRANK State Score Team LG SECCLS GP (WW-LL-TT) Sxx Qxx
===================================================================================================
10 MN 996.8110 LakevilleSouth MSHSL 1 AA 25 (23- 2- 0) 0.747 0.0934
35 MN 993.6948 LakevilleNorth MSHSL 1 AA 25 (11-13- 1) 0.752 0.0947
38 MN 993.4321 Northfield MSHSL 1 AA 24 (16- 5- 3) 0.744 0.0928
39 MN 993.4180 Farmington MSHSL 1 AA 25 (11-14- 0) 0.748 0.0937
48 MN 992.9448 DodgeCounty MSHSL 1 AA 26 (15-11- 0) 0.721 0.0871
63 MN 991.8493 Owatonna MSHSL 1 AA 25 (15- 8- 2) 0.738 0.0914
128 MN 986.1877 RochesterMayo MSHSL 1 AA 25 ( 9-16- 0) 0.761 0.0971
136 MN 984.8070 RochesterCentury MSHSL 1 AA 24 ( 6-17- 1) 0.761 0.0970
95% MOE = ~ 1.5 goals
1AA seedings 1st round numerical predictions [95% CI]
-------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Lakeville South RochesterCentury @ LakevilleSouth LVS win by 11 to 13 goals
2 Northfield RochesterMayo @ Northfield NFLD win by 6 to 8 goals
3 Farmington Owatonna @ Farmington FARM win by 1 to 3 goals
4 Lakeville North DodgeCounty @ LakevilleNorth *LVN or DC win by 1 goal in OT
5 Dodge County
6 Owatonna *slight edge to LVN
7 Rochester Mayo
8 Rochester Century
LSQRANK State Score Team LG SECCLS GP (WW-LL-TT) Sxx Qxx
===================================================================================================
3 MN 999.0556 Minnetonka MSHSL 2 AA 25 (19- 6- 0) 0.684 0.0785
4 MN 997.6774 HolyFamily MSHSL 2 AA 25 (20- 4- 1) 0.712 0.0851
33 MN 993.9076 EdenPrairie MSHSL 2 AA 24 ( 8-16- 0) 0.721 0.0871
34 MN 993.8616 Shakopee MSHSL 2 AA 25 (10-15- 0) 0.745 0.0929
37 MN 993.4794 Chaska/Chanhassen MSHSL 2 AA 25 (11-14- 0) 0.730 0.0893
60 MN 992.0043 BloomingtonJefferson MSHSL 2 AA 25 (12-13- 0) 0.731 0.0895
62 MN 991.9735 PriorLake MSHSL 2 AA 25 ( 6-18- 1) 0.748 0.0938
73 MN 991.0980 NewPrague MSHSL 2 AA 25 (10-12- 3) 0.737 0.0910
2AA seedings 1st round numerical predictions [95% CI]
---------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Minnetonka NewPrague @ Minnetonka MNTK win by 7 to 9 goals
2 Holy Family PriorLake @ HolyFamily HF win by 5 to 7 goals
3 Shakopee BloomingtonJefferson @ Shakopee SKP win by 1 to 3 goals
4 Eden Prairie Chaska/Chanhassen @ EdenPrairie EP or CC win by 1 goal in OT
5 Chaska/Chanhassen
6 Jefferson
7 Prior Lake
8 New Prague
LSQRANK State Score Team LG SECCLS GP (WW-LL-TT) Sxx Qxx
===================================================================================================
18 MN 995.8732 Burnsville MSHSL 3 AA 25 (19- 5- 1) 0.745 0.0931
21 MN 995.2051 Rosemount MSHSL 3 AA 25 (17- 8- 0) 0.748 0.0939
23 MN 994.9422 Cretin-DerhamHall MSHSL 3 AA 25 (16- 7- 2) 0.721 0.0872
32 MN 993.9329 Eastview MSHSL 3 AA 24 (11-12- 1) 0.755 0.0957
50 MN 992.7154 AppleValley MSHSL 3 AA 25 (10-13- 2) 0.746 0.0934
56 MN 992.1364 Eagan MSHSL 3 AA 25 ( 5-19- 1) 0.747 0.0936
82 MN 990.4408 Hastings MSHSL 3 AA 25 ( 8-16- 1) 0.730 0.0894
84 MN 990.3882 ParkofCottageGrove MSHSL 3 AA 25 ( 8-17- 0) 0.730 0.0893
3AA seedings 1st round numerical predictions [95% CI]
---------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Burnsville ParkofCottageGrove @ Burnsville BSV win by 4 to 6 goals
2 Cretin-Derham Hall Hastings @ Cretin-DerhamHall CDH win by 3 to 5 goals
3 Rosemount Eagan @ Rosemount RSMT win by 2 to 4 goals
4 Eastview AppleValley @ *Eastview ESTV win by 1 to 2 goals in reg
5 Apple Valley or APV win by 1 goal in OT
6 Eagan *edge to Eastview
7 Hastings *95% CI = [ -0.3 to +2.7 ]
8 Park Cottage Grove
LSQRANK State Score Team LG SECCLS GP (WW-LL-TT) Sxx Qxx
===================================================================================================
8 MN 997.1430 GentryAcademy MSHSL 4 AA 24 (18- 6- 0) 0.707 0.0839
12 MN 996.6281 Hill-Murray MSHSL 4 AA 24 (16- 8- 0) 0.704 0.0832
15 MN 996.2218 Stillwater MSHSL 4 AA 24 (13- 9- 2) 0.712 0.0851
27 MN 994.3128 Roseville MSHSL 4 AA 25 (15- 8- 2) 0.719 0.0866
40 MN 993.3624 EastRidge MSHSL 4 AA 25 (14-10- 1) 0.727 0.0886
58 MN 992.1179 Woodbury MSHSL 4 AA 25 (14-11- 0) 0.727 0.0885
67 MN 991.5381 NorthSt.Paul/Tartan MSHSL 4 AA 24 (15- 9- 0) 0.745 0.0930
80 MN 990.4707 WhiteBearLake MSHSL 4 AA 25 ( 5-19- 1) 0.720 0.0869
110 MN 987.8143 Mahtomedi MSHSL 4 AA 24 ( 3-21- 0) 0.735 0.0905
Play-In round: WhiteBearLake wins by 2 to 3 goals over Mahtomedi
4AA seedings 1st round numerical predictions [95% CI]
---------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Gentry Academy #WhiteBearLake @ #GentryAcademy GA win by 6 to 8 goals
2 Stillwater NorthSt.Paul/Tartan @ Stillwater STW win by 4 to 6 goals
3 Hill-Murray Woodbury @ Hill-Murray HM win by 3 to 6 goals
4 Roseville EastRidge @ *Roseville RSV win by 1 to 2 goals in reg
5 East Ridge or ESR win by 1 goal in OT
6 Woodbury
7 North/Tartan #dual Home Ice *edge to Roseville
8 White Bear Lake *95% CI [ -0.5 to +2.5 ]
9 Mahtomedi
LSQRANK State Score Team LG SECCLS GP (WW-LL-TT) Sxx Qxx
===================================================================================================
9 MN 996.8679 MapleGrove MSHSL 5 AA 25 (17- 6- 2) 0.678 0.0770
13 MN 996.5379 Rogers MSHSL 5 AA 25 (19- 4- 2) 0.694 0.0807
14 MN 996.2374 Centennial/SpringLakePark MSHSL 5 AA 25 (16- 8- 1) 0.691 0.0801
17 MN 995.8836 NorthWrightCounty MSHSL 5 AA 25 (14-10- 1) 0.711 0.0847
29 MN 994.1265 ChamplinPark/CoonRapids MSHSL 5 AA 25 (13-11- 1) 0.693 0.0806
43 MN 993.1737 Osseo/ParkCenter MSHSL 5 AA 25 (11-14- 0) 0.696 0.0813
47 MN 992.9958 MoundsView MSHSL 5 AA 24 (12-12- 0) 0.728 0.0888
107 MN 988.0939 Irondale/St.Anthony MSHSL 5 AA 25 ( 4-20- 1) 0.726 0.0882
5AA seedings 1st round numerical predictions [95% CI]
---------------- -------------------------------------------------------------------
1 MapleGrove Irondale/St.Anthony @ MapleGrove MG win by 8 to 10 goals
2 Rogers MoundsView @ Rogers ROG win by 2 to 5 goals
3 Centennial Osseo/ParkCenter @ Centennial CSP win by 2 to 4 goals
4 NorthWrightCounty ChamplinPark/CR @ NorthWrightCounty NWC win by 1 to 3 goals
5 ChamplinPark/CR
6 Osseo/ParkCenter
7 MoundsView
8 Irondale/St.Anthony
LSQRANK State Score Team LG SECCLS GP (WW-LL-TT) Sxx Qxx
===================================================================================================
2 MN 999.3031 Edina MSHSL 6 AA 25 (23- 2- 0) 0.697 0.0814
6 MN 997.5679 Wayzata MSHSL 6 AA 25 (16- 8- 1) 0.695 0.0810
7 MN 997.5331 Benilde-St.Margaret's MSHSL 6 AA 24 (18- 5- 1) 0.711 0.0847
16 MN 996.0761 Blake MSHSL 6 AA 23 (13-10- 0) 0.716 0.0859
70 MN 991.2884 Armstrong/Cooper MSHSL 6 AA 25 (11-13- 1) 0.698 0.0817
74 MN 991.0598 MinnehahaUnited MSHSL 6 AA 24 (17- 7- 0) 0.744 0.0929
92 MN 989.7544 Hopkins/Park MSHSL 6 AA 25 ( 7-18- 0) 0.719 0.0866
6AA seedings 1st round numerical predictions [95% CI]
---------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Edina BYE Edina Edina Bye
2 Wayzata Hopkins/Park @ Wayzata WAY win by 7 to 9 goals
3 Benilde St Margarets MinnehahaUnited @ Benilde-St.Margaret's BSM win by 5 to 8 goals
4 Blake Armstrong/Cooper @ Blake BLAKE win by 4 to 6 goals
5 Armstrong/Cooper
6 United
7 Hopkins/Park
LSQRANK State Score Team LG SECCLS GP (WW-LL-TT) Sxx Qxx
===================================================================================================
1 MN 1000.0000 Andover MSHSL 7 AA 24 (24- 0- 0) 0.000 0.0000
20 MN 995.3119 ElkRiver/Zimmerman MSHSL 7 AA 25 (12-12- 1) 0.691 0.0801
24 MN 994.8649 Blaine MSHSL 7 AA 25 (11-11- 3) 0.693 0.0805
25 MN 994.7056 GrandRapids-Greenway MSHSL 7 AA 25 (17- 8- 0) 0.704 0.0831
45 MN 993.1179 ForestLake MSHSL 7 AA 25 (13-12- 0) 0.708 0.0841
57 MN 992.1320 Anoka MSHSL 7 AA 25 ( 7-18- 0) 0.695 0.0810
81 MN 990.4466 Duluth MSHSL 7 AA 24 ( 6-18- 0) 0.728 0.0889
106 MN 988.0945 NorthernTier MSHSL 7 AA 24 ( 5-19- 0) 0.730 0.0894
140 MN 984.2793 Princeton MSHSL 7 AA 25 ( 2-23- 0) 0.731 0.0896
Play-In round: NorthernTier wins by 4 goals over Princeton
7AA seedings 1st round numerical predictions [95% CI]
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1 Andover NorthernTier @ Andover AND win by 11 to 13 goals
2 Grand Rapids/Greenway Duluth @ GrandRapids-Greenway GRG win by 3 to 5 goals
3 Elk River Anoka @ ElkRiver/Zimmerman ERZ win by 2 to 4 goals
4 Blaine ForestLake @ Blaine BLAINE win by 1 to 2 goals
5 Forest Lake
6 Anoka
7 Duluth
8 Northern Tier
9 Princeton
LSQRANK State Score Team LG SECCLS GP (WW-LL-TT) Sxx Qxx
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28 MN 994.3077 Moorhead MSHSL 8 AA 25 (17- 8- 0) 0.723 0.0877
31 MN 994.0113 Alexandria MSHSL 8 AA 23 (12-10- 1) 0.744 0.0928
36 MN 993.6805 Brainerd/LittleFalls MSHSL 8 AA 24 (13-11- 0) 0.734 0.0903
42 MN 993.2036 Roseau MSHSL 8 AA 24 (14- 8- 2) 0.735 0.0907
52 MN 992.4617 St.Cloud MSHSL 8 AA 24 (13- 9- 2) 0.744 0.0927
71 MN 991.1279 Buffalo MSHSL 8 AA 25 ( 5-18- 2) 0.716 0.0860
89 MN 990.0237 Sartell/SaukRapids MSHSL 8 AA 25 ( 6-17- 2) 0.736 0.0909
91 MN 989.7635 Bemidji MSHSL 8 AA 24 ( 4-18- 2) 0.736 0.0908
8AA seedings Section [WW-LL-TT] 1st round numerical predictions [95% CI]
---------------- ------- ---------- ---------------------------------------------------------------
1 Moorhead 8-2-0 (17- 8- 0) Bemidji @ Moorhead MOOR wins by 3 to 6 goals
2 Alexandria 6-2-1 (13-10- 1) Buffalo @ Alexandria ALEX wins by 2 to 4 goals
3 Brainerd/LittleFalls 7-4-0 (13-11- 0) Sartell/SaukRapids @ Brainerd BRND wins by 2 to 5 goals
4 Roseau 5-4-1 (14- 9- 2) St.Cloud @ Roseau *ROS wins by [-1 to 2] goals OT
5 St.Cloud 3-4-2 (13- 9- 2)
6 Sartell/SaukRapids 1-7-2 ( 6-17- 2) *ROS & STC tied T 3-3 in their only H2H meeting @ROS
7 Buffalo 1-4-2 ( 5-18- 2)
8 Bemidji 1-7-0 ( 4-19- 2)