Will there be high school hockey for 2020-2021?

[blueblood]

Games are happening. MN starts July 1. Be safe my friends.

[jg2112]

Games are happening. MN starts July 1. Be safe my friends.

Agree with you here. Let's hope Minnesotans don't go to vacation in California, Florida, Texas or Arizona for the next 3 months. If they don't, I have more confidence we'll have a winter hockey season.

[blueblood]

[ThatMNHockeyGuy62]

So if you don’t think it’s 99.9999%, then what do you think it is? You’re admitting you don’t know the exact number. So why not 99.9%? You’re right, I’m definitely not saying it’s like the flu. It’s pretty established that this is an order of magnitude worse for the population as a whole. When you break it down by age of course, that changes, but it should be understood that hockey and all sports are not just the players. Coaches, refs, and trainers particularly are involved. This makes a season harder. I just don’t think you should be throwing out numbers as perceived fact.

As for immunity, you are making the common mistake of confusing a lack of proof with a lack of evidence. There is A LOT of evidence that infection causes some level of immunity. Much of that evidence was listed in the very article you provided. Proof, from a scientific perspective, is much more rigorous and takes a lot longer.

Finally, as for admins staying cautious. You are probably right to an extent in theory, but in practice it’s more complicated. For example, players and coaches have been practicing in MSHSL and high school sanctioned summer training programs for over a week now, and will be able to play scrimmages and games come July 1. All with AD approval. Yes, this is all assuming no “Second Wave,” which changes the game. But a lot of that assumption is based off of previous flu pandemics, and as we’ve already established, this is not the flu.

[Wise Old Man]

So if you don’t think it’s 99.9999%, then what do you think it is? You’re admitting you don’t know the exact number. So why not 99.9%? You’re right, I’m definitely not saying it’s like the flu. It’s pretty established that this is an order of magnitude worse for the population as a whole. When you break it down by age of course, that changes, but it should be understood that hockey and all sports are not just the players. Coaches, refs, and trainers particularly are involved. This makes a season harder. I just don’t think you should be throwing out numbers as perceived fact.

As for immunity, you are making the common mistake of confusing a lack of proof with a lack of evidence. There is A LOT of evidence that infection causes some level of immunity. Much of that evidence was listed in the very article you provided. Proof, from a scientific perspective, is much more rigorous and takes a lot longer.

Finally, as for admins staying cautious. You are probably right to an extent in theory, but in practice it’s more complicated. For example, players and coaches have been practicing in MSHSL and high school sanctioned summer training programs for over a week now, and will be able to play scrimmages and games come July 1. All with AD approval. Yes, this is all assuming no “Second Wave,” which changes the game. But a lot of that assumption is based off of previous flu pandemics, and as we’ve already established, this is not the flu.

First, I've never presented any numbers I've used as "fact". Simply indicating that for both administrators and parents, for them to be confident in allowing sports to occur, or kids to go back to school, or parents to feel comfortable allowing their kids to play, there will need to be an extremely high level of certainty -- likely as high as 95 plus percent effective -- that a therapeutic will prevent their child from having to go to an ICU.

I'm sorry but, I consider myself as well read on Covid as any lay person can be and, I haven't seen anything that can conclusively stand as "evidence" of some sort of immunity. Please link to anything you feel does prove this so I may inform myself. To be clear, most scientists/researchers believe there is likely some immunity developed after being infected. However, everything I have read to this point indicates that is completely based on the fact that all previous coronaviruses have resulted in some level of immunity after initial infection. Not because there is any definitive current science that proves this in the case of Covid 19.

Finally, yes, sports and teams are currently able to practice and even play games soon and, those activities are allowed -- key word being allowed -- by the MSHSL. However, all of these programs are run to the private/personal benefit of the people (obviously, usually the coach) of those people. All the MSHSL is saying is that you're allowed to have contact with your players. That's not the same as saying they -- the MSHSL -- believes they have any authority to prevent that contact due to the virus. When the kids are out of school, I'm fairly confident any restrictions applied would have to come at the local/state government level, versus thru the MSHSL. Meaning, what is allowed at the moment by the state, is separate from how the MSHSL might choose to go once they are at a point they need to make a decision about the upcoming school year/sports seasons.

[ThatMNHockeyGuy62]

Wise Old Man, I don’t have the time nor the energy to go back and forth on all of this, but you are continuing to use proof and evidence somewhat interchangeably. In addition to the link that you posted, which listed several reasons and studies that scientists believe there is evidence of a certain level of immunity, I’ve linked two others:

https://www.livescience.com/covid-19-immunity.html


https://www.healthline.com/health-news/ ... infectious

If you read through them they do a pretty good job of showing that no, there is not definitive proof *yet*, but there is a multitude of studies that provide evidence of it. These articles do use previous coronavirus’s as evidence, as they should, and they also go beyond that. These are just the first couple I found. As more come up I’ll try and send them to you.

I don’t mean to come off as minimizing the virus. Like I’ve said, it’s clearly MUCH worse than the flu for a significant and important portion of the population. I only posit that we’re still a long ways from November and we should see how continued summer training, hockey around the world, European schools open for over a month, and even American schools in for the first few months of fall react before making sweeping predictions now.

[Wise Old Man]

Wise Old Man, I don’t have the time nor the energy to go back and forth on all of this, but you are continuing to use proof and evidence somewhat interchangeably. In addition to the link that you posted, which listed several reasons and studies that scientists believe there is evidence of a certain level of immunity, I’ve linked two others:

https://www.livescience.com/covid-19-immunity.html


https://www.healthline.com/health-news/ ... infectious

If you read through them they do a pretty good job of showing that no, there is not definitive proof *yet*, but there is a multitude of studies that provide evidence of it. These articles do use previous coronavirus’s as evidence, as they should, and they also go beyond that. These are just the first couple I found. As more come up I’ll try and send them to you.

I don’t mean to come off as minimizing the virus. Like I’ve said, it’s clearly MUCH worse than the flu for a significant and important portion of the population. I only posit that we’re still a long ways from November and we should see how continued summer training, hockey around the world, European schools open for over a month, and even American schools in for the first few months of fall react before making sweeping predictions now.

TMNH, I'm sorry you may not have the time to go back and forth about this stuff but, isn't that a big part of what these forums are all about? As for how you choose to define proof and evidence or, your interpretation of how you feel I am or am not using them... I think you and I agree on far more than we may not. And, if I understand you correctly, you and I agree that "proof" is determined by overwhelming "evidence".

Both are good articles that go further than what I've previously read in terms of the strength of their stance that almost all of these supposed "second" infections are actually dead virus from the original infection. This is great to hear. I also agree that the fact people who have recovered from Covid have neutralizing antibodies and, considering in almost every previous coronavirus those same neutralizing antibodies have ultimately proven to provide some type of immunity, that it makes sense to theorize the same thing will probably hold true for this virus. However, until science is able to definitively prove that, it's simply still a theory. A very good theory with good history (ok, we can call that evidence if you want) behind it but, a theory.

Nothing wrong with wanting to get more info from how things play out for a few more weeks but, the administrators in charge of deciding if we allow kids back to school have to determine that by the end of July as they'll need that next month to get online learning improved and finalized if they choose to go that way. Or, if it's a modified in school attendance approach -- every other day or, half days -- they also need that month to finalize those plans and implement them as well. And, since fall sports officially start the third week of August, they'll need to decide on fall sports by the end of July as well. And, if you think they'll decide to delay or cancel fall sports but let winter sports be played, I think you'll be disappointed. Next, I have been informed by people I trust that there are a number of parents of non-sport/extra-curricular students from around the state that have already "lawyered up" and intend on taking the MSHSL to court to prevent them from allowing extra-curricular activities since many of them have provably shown to increase risk of spread. If, repeat IF that's true, I highly doubt the MSHSL is willing or able to spend the money to fight that fight. I hope that doesn't happen but, would that really surprise any of us if it did?

[Hunters1993]

Doesn’t surprise me one bit that parents are willing to go after the sports for exposing the school so little Johnny can play his hockey. I would do the same thing if I felt the MSHSL was putting my kid in danger of infection so little Johnny can play hockey. Take a look at college football. Those are much older kids and they are getting infected and taking it to practice where they infect teammates Now imagine if school was in and those kids go to class and infect the class, teacher, and on it goes!

On KFAN Lou Nanne said the exact same thing. He wouldn’t want his kid bringing from the game to the classroom and spreading it. And he is a huge puck head and he still gets it.

[goldy313]

The Minnesota Medical Association announced today that they are advocating state leaders to make wearing of masks mandatory in all public indoor buildings. Jan Malcolm advocated for this today during the MDH briefing along with masks outdoors as well. The MMA is hardly apolitical so take that for what it is worth.

It is likely Walz will go along with this, it is unenforceable but if it goes through indoor sports are done for the year as this order would likely persist until next spring.

Not so curiously the MSM focuses on rising positive case counts in non mandated mask states Arizona, Florida, and Texas but some how leaves out mask wearing California.......

The population packed Northeast struggled with high infection rates early when it was cold and people were inside, the Southern tier and California had much lower rates but people were outside. Now it has reversed, the Northeast is doing much better and people are outside while the heat has driven people inside in the South and California. We probably could infer that being outside slows the spread based on that and that protests haven’t shown the widespread infection rates we feared. Opening up your state probably was OK, young people packed in bars was the same as packing people into apartment buildings, subways, etc.

It will be interesting to see what happens in Minnesota by late July after this extended period of heat we are about to get.

Assuming some immunity....Part of me thinks this spike in young healthy people getting the virus now is a lot less catastrophic than it would be next fall when we are driven back inside. It helps the move towards herd immunity, we need to be extra vigilant of those at risk though.

*edit* Mayo is doing antibody testing on any Mayo employee that wants it, starting with personnel in direct patient care then everyone else. There are 3 possible outcomes....
1) Higher than expected positives; the virus is more widespread than we thought and more people than we thought had it and were either asymptotic or had very mild symptoms.
2) Lower than expected positives; the virus really hasn’t been here yet or isn’t spread as easily as thought.
3) positive rate is what is reported.
To the best of my knowledge this is the first widespread antibody test being done. The results could have a fairy big impact on how we move forward.

[goldy313]

Hockey is a winter sport......

The Texas version of the MSHSL the University Interscholastic League (UIL) has proposed switching the fall and spring seasons.....track, baseball, softball, and tennis would occur in the fall while football and volleyball would be spring sports.

[Section 8 guy]

Godly. A testing sample of people that work daily in a major medical facility really wouldn’t tell us anything about how much of the broader population has had it compared to how many we think have had it.......would it?

Exposure levels would be entirely different than the general population I’d think.

[goldy313]

You are correct. Assuming every person in Olmsted County was tested exactly once the positive rate on Olmsted County would be under 1%. Hennepin County is far different, so is Nobles County (Worthington). Ramsey County, Stearns County, and some others would fall into that category as well. You make the point many others, rightly, make. We are a diverse state and one solution does not solve all of the issues.

This is no place in the state as simple as politics make it......Hennepin County should not be the state standard we are basing our experience on.

The MDH can’t even figure out the difference between intra and inter. Yet they are guidelines. This is a huge issue, I mean verbiage will affect fall sports. The MDH assuming “intra” and “Inter” are the same is asinine. We pay for this ineptitude,

[goldy313]

So Mayo tests every employee...... it does not give you a state or national rate of infection. Period, end of story. What it does is give us, a first in the nation, status on the spread. A basic rate of asymptotic vs symptomatic people. This is huge. No one has done this yet.....basic as it seems.

[Stang5280]

FWIW, on the college side, Amherst, Bowdoin, and UMass Boston have cancelled all sports during the fall semester. That also includes winter sports such as hockey, which will not start competition until Jan. 1 (if at all). I imagine the whole NESCAC will eventually follow suit, which could lead to a domino effect among the D3 ranks.

[jg2112]

FWIW, on the college side, Amherst, Bowdoin, and UMass Boston have cancelled all sports during the fall semester. That also includes winter sports such as hockey, which will not start competition until Jan. 1 (if at all). I imagine the whole NESCAC will eventually follow suit, which could lead to a domino effect among the D3 ranks.

Adding another data point. Yale's current plan is for freshmen to be on campus this fall and remote in the spring, with sophomores to do the reverse.

The issue of paying $35,000 for a semester of Zoom lectures from a student's parents' basement is for another time. Obviously the athletics department could get an exemption from this scheme. IF they don't, Yale isn't going to have any sports this upcoming school year.

[blueblood]

What do colleges out east have to do with MNHS Hockey?

[ClassAGuy]

What do colleges out east have to do with MNHS Hockey?

As Stang pointed out Blueblood he was just highlighting what college hockey is doing in one area of the nation.

Ultimately the fate of Minnesota High School Hockey as we have noted is in the hand MSHSL. The MSHSL will go by what the Schools are doing. There will most certainly be outbreaks at School this Fall from one area to next. The virus will spread. Summer hockey Tournaments where the MSHSL is not really on the hook for the outbreak are not the bet gage for what will happen.

When it comes time for the actual sports to start assuming we have full-time school in place I think that is doubtful you are looking more at hybrid model to keep social distancing and less than 50% in place... Do you really see sports getting the green light with all that liability?

I have seen townball games all over being postponed or canceled due to one player having covid... What will happen when athletes or a kid at school tests positive and he was in the same classroom as 6 of the hockey players at school who then went into the locker room.

I am not here to debate what you think on the spread within kids and all the herd immunity and kids are fine. I agree on many points.. But when the MN State High School League is on the hook for the liability of this spread and they are already in a bad place financially because of this past spring.... I still think we are wishful thinking on High school hockey by November.... I hope and pray I am wrong but when the MN Dept of Health will be leading the MSHSL on whats best ...... I can promise you it wont be what they did this summer where they had no liability because come the season they will be much more cautious ..... I hope the kids can play but I think its going to be a challenge. Summer Hockey does not equal hockey this winter....

Honestly, if you read the guidelines scrimmages this summer should not be happening outside your local community according to the Department of Health till the end of JULY. DO you think all coaches and teams are following that NOPE they are just doing what they interpret it to be. The MSHSL is being very loose on it this summer but come this Fall and Winter when they are the sponsor of it do you see them being this loose....We shall see just thinking we have along way to go for hockey this winter.

Thank you Stang for the UPDATE out East it is good to know where things are trending around the country!

[MNHockeyFan]

The opening of the boys' winter hockey season follows the girls' season by two weeks. Should the MSHSL cancel the girls season I cannot see them not doing the same for the boys. That would create an uproar and charges of discrimination, favoritism, etc. Something to keep an eye on.

[goldy313]

Iowa is playing high school baseball and softball now as it their season. If a team has a player that tests positive then that team is shut down for two weeks. Western Dubuque has one of the top catching prospects in the country and just had to shut down.

The MIAC and NSIC will have to make decisions about fall sports in the next two weeks. The more that cancel the more likely it is the MSHSL will follow suit. The issue for hockey is what will school look like? When will school return to normal?

As an aside, the state government at this time could care less about school sports. They and school will be hijacked by political and social issues. Kids and education have become casualties to this stuff.

[ClassAGuy]

Iowa is playing high school baseball and softball now as it their season. If a team has a player that tests positive then that team is shut down for two weeks. Western Dubuque has one of the top catching prospects in the country and just had to shut down.

The MIAC and NSIC will have to make decisions about fall sports in the next two weeks. The more that cancel the more likely it is the MSHSL will follow suit. The issue for hockey is what will school look like? When will school return to normal?

As an aside, the state government at this time could care less about school sports. They and school will be hijacked by political and social issues. Kids and education have become casualties to this stuff.

I don't wanna get into this being a political issue.

Great post as always Goldy!

Its crazy that 34 of 80 people who voted say a season yes 100%. I need that kind of wishful thinking!

Covid is gonna be around and this fall will be very interesting once covid hits a school or schools in MN and it will there is no way to prevent that. How will they respond... Also, is the MSHSL gonna put kids in tight bus and send them to another community during times of an outbreak...

In Townball is one player on one team has a positive the whole game is canceled... If that happens in the MSHSL it will be two weeks everyone out like Iowa... Most people are worried about a virus spike in November.... Ya the same month we want to play hockey.

It is gonna be tough to see this happening .... Lets hope I am wrong and the 34 people saying 100% have better information

[jg2112]

The reason to look "out East" is the same reason Florida, Georgia, Texas and Arizona should have been paying attention to the East in April and May, not belittling the region or claiming "victory." There are lessons to be learned and knowledge to be acquired.

The reality is this virus is out of control across the country. The problem for all of us is that COVID is going to find its way back to Minnesota in the next 2 months, right when vital decisions are being made about: (1) a return to school; and (2) authorizing fall and winter sports. The timing couldn't be worse to see how terribly the Sun Belt is handling the pandemic, knowing full well the virus is spreading unchecked again.

My wife is on a neighborhood FB site. In it is an anecdote about an inner ring suburb where high schoolers gathered in the past 2 weeks for a party. All of the 20 kids who attended the party tested positive for COVID.

We can all be as vigilant as we want, but kids are kids. They think they're invincible.

So what to do? I remain optimistic, yet realistic. I'm not expecting my kids to have indoor sports this upcoming school year.

[SEC Scotty]

Happy Independence Day all!! I hope to hell there is High School Hockey this year. Really the only sport I truly enjoy anymore.

[ClassAGuy]

Here is the new reality... Below is New Prague High School's Athletics Twitter Announcing Two Week Shut Down due to Covid earlier today...

New Prague Trojans @NP_Trojans

Due to recent positive tests for COVID-19, the admin team has decided to cancel all Activities Dept and Community Ed activities for all Middle/High School student-athletes from July 6-19. This includes sport-specific practices and/or camps (including Strength/Conditioning).

Let's for a minute say this happened during the year they played let's say they played just two other teams the week prior. Would those teams need to all shut down to get testing to make sure all their players are cleared....and Ohh yeah Testing takes time. Heck as Dolittle of the Washington Nats proved he is still waiting for his results and that's the MLB... Do all the teams they played have to shut down until further notice... And even more do the teams who played the teams that played who played New Prague also then shut down too until they can get everyone tested??

I just don't know how this is gonna work in the MSHSL...

[goldy313]

The Rochester Mayor and city council just put the most restrictive mask order in the nation. It makes masks mandatory in all public buildings, bars, restaurants, retail stores, gyms, sports facilities, recreation and fitness centers, and outside when 6 feet of distance can not be maintained. This order is in effect through September 4h unless Gov. Walz ends his emergency declaration sooner or the mayor extends the order longer. The order does not apply to County, State, or Federal properties.

Hockey is done as it can’t be practiced with a mask on, baseball is now done, there will be no football, basketball, soccer, or volleyball practice. It makes school starting on time very unlikely.

Also, the MCAC, the group that runs Community College sports in Minnesota canceled all fall sports.

[Wise Old Man]

Here is the new reality... Below is New Prague High School's Athletics Twitter Announcing Two Week Shut Down due to Covid earlier today...

New Prague Trojans @NP_Trojans

Due to recent positive tests for COVID-19, the admin team has decided to cancel all Activities Dept and Community Ed activities for all Middle/High School student-athletes from July 6-19. This includes sport-specific practices and/or camps (including Strength/Conditioning).

Let's for a minute say this happened during the year they played let's say they played just two other teams the week prior. Would those teams need to all shut down to get testing to make sure all their players are cleared....and Ohh yeah Testing takes time. Heck as Dolittle of the Washington Nats proved he is still waiting for his results and that's the MLB... Do all the teams they played have to shut down until further notice... And even more do the teams who played the teams that played who played New Prague also then shut down too until they can get everyone tested??

I just don't know how this is gonna work in the MSHSL...

The MSHSL was approximately $450,000 in the "red" last year. They have basically canceled all in-person sports related clinics. I can't even imagine what they would be faced with right now had the boys state hockey tourney been canceled. To ClassA's point about potential liability that I have raised previously as well; strictly from a monetary standpoint, the MSHSL is in no position to afford to try and defend any potential lawsuits, no matter how likely they might win in the end. Also, I could obviously be wrong but, I find it hard to believe they would allow some activities but not others which also opens them up to potential legal action. The short and long-term financial risk for the MSHSL is far less by not having extra-curricular activities than having them. Especially if they end up having to cancel the boys state hockey tourney or, having to play it without fans which, even with a fairly available vaccine by January or February, is still a possibility.

Next, a number of NCAA administrators are now talking about moving football to the spring -- I believe there was an article in the Star Tribune either yesterday or today discussing this possibility both for colleges and the MSHSL. Obviously, moving high school football in our state to the spring is very problematic from a weather standpoint. That also forces students who might also play a spring sport to choose between football and that sport. Which, I believe would more negatively affect football's numbers more than the spring sports. Now, theoretically, they could move the current spring sports to early summer to allow enough time for whichever fall/winter sports end up starting their seasons late.

For instance, let's say we have a widely distributable, safe and effective vaccine by early December. So, the MSHSL decides to have a fall and winter sports season but, they all happen at the same time and, they all start on Jan. 2nd. Let's say they push the hockey tourney back to April 20th. Again, you're making kids pick one sport over another but, since this is a once in a 100 year scenario, that's obviously better than no sports at all. Regardless, if by chance the MDH won't allow a normal capacity at the X for the tourney, then the resulting increase in debt from having to put on all of the state competitions without the opportunity to leverage the "cash cow" is only going to significantly worsen their financial position. What if the NHL chooses to delay the 2020-21 start until Jan. 1st and the X simply isn't available in the time frame the MSHSL needs it? Sure, you might be able to move it to Mariucci or even Target Center but, no guarantees there either as either of those buildings' primary tenants might need them at least on one or two days during the 5 day span the MSHSL needs it.

Finally, ClassA brings up another point I've made a least a couple of times previously about what would need to happen if a player from a team tests positive as has happened to baseball/softball in Iowa? I would assume the same thing -- a two week quarantine of the entire team. "ClassAguy" then correctly asks how many "levels" down the quarantines would be required regarding teams that the infected player's team played recently... Personally, I would think it would be any game played within the previous 3-5 days of the player testing positive. Well, that could be as many as 2-3 other teams. That would quickly become extremely problematic from a statewide schedule integrity standpoint. Especially when the entire regular season is only 12 weeks long.

What happens when there's a significant outbreak in Hibbing and their mayor closes all public buildings for 2 or 4 or even 6 weeks which prevents the hockey teams from practicing/playing home games for that stretch? What if a team is only able to play 12 games but, is undefeated in those games? What if the 12-0 team only defeated one top 10 ranked team but, another team in that section played 16 games and went 15-1 and four of their wins and their only loss was against top 10 teams? How do you seed the Section playoffs? This obviously applies to every sport. The number of unpredictable/unique/never before dealt with scenarios and challenges are almost too many to comprehend. Not to mention the heart of the hockey season coincides with the worst of the flu and Covid season, especially if the "2nd wave" is worse than our current wave as most experts predict...Then again, we might just have one long massive wave... Either way, in my opinion the deck is definitely stacked against there being a "normal" high school or youth hockey season. I hope to God I'm wrong but....