Which Teams do you see as long term perennial contenders ?

[Zoochu]

Like the title says:

Which teams do you see as long term perennial contenders in the future with how the demographics of cities are changing and how hockey associations numbers are evolving ?

They can be private schools or public schools. If the option is not available in the poll, I invite you to answer the poll in your post.

Please explain your thought process and why you believe the team you chose will be a long term contender.

[blueblood]

all of the above

[alcloseshaver]

On the NW side, Maple Grove, Elk River, STMA, Rogers, Blaine, Centennial have the type of combination of proper demographics, housing for young families, growing communities, strong youth programs in place to be viable programs in the future. May have missed some communities that will be viable 30 years from now. Possibly, Andover, St. Francis, Cambridge - Isanti?

[Zoochu]

Interesting, I like to hear other people's opinions, I'm not from Minnesota and although I've been living here for quite a while, I'm just curious about a number of things.

Maple Grove and Plymouth seem to be growing pretty fast, but aren't they gaining demographics that do not care much about hockey ?

I guess it's the associations jobs to get people interested in the game.

I'm curious about Edina, they've done a tremendous job so far of getting kids playing for their association ( probably the biggest one) but like some other people mentioned, Edina is pretty much all built, not much room for expansion and real estate prices are extremely high so I wonder how the demographics will change and how they will attract young families with kids, especially with the number of tear downs which make housing prices even higher since houses are bigger and newer.

I'm also curious about how the private schools are going to fare. So far I've read a couple of articles explaining how private schools are becoming more and more powerful in sports because they attract alot of rich people because of their prestige. I read that they have alot of money and are able to fundraise easily through their alumni base and therefore pay for any infrastructure they need.

If you check Michigan and Massachusetts, most of the contenders and winning teams are private school teams.

Is Minnesota headed that way ? Are we going to see Hill Murray, Benilde, Saint Thomas and Holy Family dominate high school hockey in the far future ? Or are public schools going to stay powerhouses ?

[green4]

Interesting, I like to hear other people's opinions, I'm not from Minnesota and although I've been living here for quite a while, I'm just curious about a number of things.

Maple Grove and Plymouth seem to be growing pretty fast, but aren't they gaining demographics that do not care much about hockey ?

I guess it's the associations jobs to get people interested in the game.

I'm curious about Edina, they've done a tremendous job so far of getting kids playing for their association ( probably the biggest one) but like some other people mentioned, Edina is pretty much all built, not much room for expansion and real estate prices are extremely high so I wonder how the demographics will change and how they will attract young families with kids, especially with the number of tear downs which make housing prices even higher since houses are bigger and newer.

I'm also curious about how the private schools are going to fare. So far I've read a couple of articles explaining how private schools are becoming more and more powerful in sports because they attract alot of rich people because of their prestige. I read that they have alot of money and are able to fundraise easily through their alumni base and therefore pay for any infrastructure they need.

If you check Michigan and Massachusetts, most of the contenders and winning teams are private school teams.

Is Minnesota headed that way ? Are we going to see Hill Murray, Benilde, Saint Thomas and Holy Family dominate high school hockey in the far future ? Or are public schools going to stay powerhouses ?

We discussed that topic with edina in a thread called Edina- city of hockey. Or something around those lines. It shouldn't be too far down, but it talks about the housing market in the comments.

[Zoochu]

Interesting, I like to hear other people's opinions, I'm not from Minnesota and although I've been living here for quite a while, I'm just curious about a number of things.

Maple Grove and Plymouth seem to be growing pretty fast, but aren't they gaining demographics that do not care much about hockey ?

I guess it's the associations jobs to get people interested in the game.

I'm curious about Edina, they've done a tremendous job so far of getting kids playing for their association ( probably the biggest one) but like some other people mentioned, Edina is pretty much all built, not much room for expansion and real estate prices are extremely high so I wonder how the demographics will change and how they will attract young families with kids, especially with the number of tear downs which make housing prices even higher since houses are bigger and newer.

I'm also curious about how the private schools are going to fare. So far I've read a couple of articles explaining how private schools are becoming more and more powerful in sports because they attract alot of rich people because of their prestige. I read that they have alot of money and are able to fundraise easily through their alumni base and therefore pay for any infrastructure they need.

If you check Michigan and Massachusetts, most of the contenders and winning teams are private school teams.

Is Minnesota headed that way ? Are we going to see Hill Murray, Benilde, Saint Thomas and Holy Family dominate high school hockey in the far future ? Or are public schools going to stay powerhouses ?

We discussed that topic with edina in a thread called Edina- city of hockey. Or something around those lines. It shouldn't be too far down, but it talks about the housing market in the comments.

Oh yeah I have read that thread. It's just interesting to get more people's opinions.

I wonder about the Private schools vs public schools too, in MI and MA, High school Hockey is dominated by Private Schools, I wonder if Minnesota will be headed that way or not, and if not what will prevent that ?

I don't hate private schools or anything, it's just I think it would be a bit frustrating to see all these public hockey associations put in all the work to teach those kids only to see Private schools dominate the league and no public school being competitive.

[karl(east)]

On the private school question, I think to some extent we've already had our private school revolution here. We went from having one good private school (Hill) to a whole bunch of them in the late 90s/early 2000s, and it's been basically stable since. Sure, maybe a few more will rise up over time now and then, like SPA right now or if they're in growing areas, but it takes some serious commitment to build a program from the ground up. And some private schools just aren't ever going to make hockey a priority.

The other thing about private schools: they can rise up quickly, but they can also crash back to earth in a heartbeat. Remember when Holy Angels used to be one of the best teams in the state? Or when Rochester Lourdes had a stranglehold in 1A? These days neither of them could buy a home playoff game.

[Section 8 guy]

Based on current/recent performance in the youth programs two outstate programs I would add to the list would be Cloquet and Moorhead.

Cloquets two current Bantam classes are both top 5 kind of classes potentially. Moorhead was a top 3 team in Bantams and a top 5 team in PeeWees most of last season and the current Squirt group has the potential to be the best of the three.

In regards to the private school question, I don't see the landscape changing a lot there anytime soon. I think that trend is as developed as it's going to get and if anything the fact that there are more private hockey options than there was 15 years ago seems to have actually watered down their dominance to a degree.

[my2cents]

I think we are seeing a little bit of effect where open enrollment is boosting the traditional strong public school programs and taking away from the private schools a little bit. I think Hill, STA and Benilde will continue to attract players because of the areas they are in and their strong traditions. It might be a little tougher for Breck, Blake, CDH, and Duluth Marshall to keep pace.

[karl(east)]

More of a history than a preview of the future, but I think this is relevant: http://apatientcycle.com/2015/03/18/a-h ... ol-hockey/

[skatez]

Private schools need two things to be a perennial power:

1. The right coach
2. Facilities

In that order with much more emphasis on #1.

How many families spend multiple thousands of dollars a year on association hockey, AAA hockey, camps, clinics, and lessons??? LOTS. If you're already spending that money and now get the private school education its understandable why its headed this way.

Sadly the haves and have nots in hockey can most likely be correlated to average family income. Not all, but the majority.

The deeper debate is whether or not high school hockey as we know it even exists in 30 years. I'm sure everyone that reads this website sure hopes it does, but if Tier 1 AAA Hockey takes over, HS hockey may go the way of inter murals with the private high schools fielding Tier 1 teams like Shattuck. I hope not, as MN HS Hockey is unlike any HS sport in the country, but its not out of the question.

[WestMetro]

As always , the key will be coaching,and parents confidence in coaching staff. Where will best coaches want to live and raise their families? What will/can association hockey parents do to ensure best coaches are attracted into their area? And what kid of confidence @ support will they provide those top coaches, working with school boards and city councils to make things happen. I will note a few of the schools listed have longstanding veteran coaches who could be thinking about retirement in next few years

[Zoochu]

Private schools need two things to be a perennial power:

1. The right coach
2. Facilities

In that order with much more emphasis on #1.

How many families spend multiple thousands of dollars a year on association hockey, AAA hockey, camps, clinics, and lessons??? LOTS. If you're already spending that money and now get the private school education its understandable why its headed this way.

Sadly the haves and have nots in hockey can most likely be correlated to average family income. Not all, but the majority.

The deeper debate is whether or not high school hockey as we know it even exists in 30 years. I'm sure everyone that reads this website sure hopes it does, but if Tier 1 AAA Hockey takes over, HS hockey may go the way of inter murals with the private high schools fielding Tier 1 teams like Shattuck. I hope not, as MN HS Hockey is unlike any HS sport in the country, but its not out of the question.

Isn't that what happened in MA ? Maybe not, I just wonder why their HS league is dominated by private schools every year

Check this out : http://www.ushsho.com/marank.htm

[Jeffy95]

More of a history than a preview of the future, but I think this is relevant: http://apatientcycle.com/2015/03/18/a-h ... ol-hockey/

Thank you, very interesting read. But Duluth East the Edina of the North? As much as my friends out East probably enjoy the self-comparison, Edina and the wealthy Metro Suburbs make Duluth look like Dirt Farmers. I'm sure there is still some old money floating around Duluth but there hasn't been any wealth created there in several Decades. My most successful friends from out East are working for Dad or Grandpa.

[MNHockeyFan]

More of a history than a preview of the future, but I think this is relevant: http://apatientcycle.com/2015/03/18/a-h ... ol-hockey/

Extremely on point and well written, Karl. Funny, as I was reading I was thinking how much immigration and race trends - in combination with relatively low income levels - have factored into the inner city and first-ring suburbs being no longer competitive in hockey. Then I got to the last paragraph, and there it is, you address it. Part of the reason I was thinking about race is that I happened to do a paper on minority population trends in Minnesota back when I was in college. The composition of our population - especially within the city limits and inner-ring suburbs - has changed so much since I did that paper that it was foremost in my mind.

As you note things may change when one program within the cities begins to show success, but to be honest I'm not optimistic that this will happen anytime soon. It's no secret that when it comes to developing numbers of higher-end talent, higher income levels are so important. And when you combine that with cultural traditions (i.e. look at soccer) it could take another generation (or more) before we see a predominately black team going to the state tournament.

Just my opinion - hope I'm wrong.

[Zoochu]

More of a history than a preview of the future, but I think this is relevant: http://apatientcycle.com/2015/03/18/a-h ... ol-hockey/

Extremely on point and well written, Karl. Funny, as I was reading I was thinking how much immigration and race trends - in combination with relatively low income levels - have factored into the inner city and first-ring suburbs being no longer competitive in hockey. Then I got to the last paragraph, and there it is, you address it. Part of the reason I was thinking about race is that I happened to do a paper on minority population trends in Minnesota back when I was in college. The composition of our population - especially within the city limits and inner-ring suburbs - has changed so much since I did that paper that it was foremost in my mind.

As you note things may change when one program within the cities begins to show success, but to be honest I'm not optimistic that this will happen anytime soon. It's no secret that when it comes to developing numbers of higher-end talent, higher income levels are so important. And when you combine that with cultural traditions (i.e. look at soccer) it could take another generation (or more) before we see a predominately black team going to the state tournament.

Just my opinion - hope I'm wrong.

I hope you are, because soccer is so uninteresting to me, I'd be depressed without my Hockey.

[MNHockeyFan]

I hope you are, because soccer is so uninteresting to me, I'd be depressed without my Hockey.

Neither sport is going away anytime soon. It's just a matter of which teams are really good, or have the capability of being really good...or not!

[karl(east)]

More of a history than a preview of the future, but I think this is relevant: http://apatientcycle.com/2015/03/18/a-h ... ol-hockey/

Thank you, very interesting read. But Duluth East the Edina of the North? As much as my friends out East probably enjoy the self-comparison, Edina and the wealthy Metro Suburbs make Duluth look like Dirt Farmers. I'm sure there is still some old money floating around Duluth but there hasn't been any wealth created there in several Decades. My most successful friends from out East are working for Dad or Grandpa.

Thankfully, I have a blog post backed up with data to answer everything:

http://apatientcycle.com/2015/07/01/the ... 1970-2010/



tl;dr Incomes on the east side have been very stable in a position above the national average since 1970. It's a bit of a joke to equate areas outside of Congdon with Edina (though even Edina has some fairly middle-class areas), but it's still firmly above national averages. East's attendance area does have more low-income students than your average west metro suburb because it reaches into the center of the city, but not enough to drastically swing the student body. It's also worth noting that East draws from a number of the townships north of the city, which are growing and fairly wealthy. And while income totals as a whole aren't on par with the west metro, those dollars do go a bit further in Duluth than they do in Minnetonka.

I don't expect any of this to change anytime soon, either. Places like Hermantown and Esko will continue to grow, and may become more affluent, but the character of Congdon, Woodland, Lakeside, or the northeastern townships isn't going to budge. East will remain East.

Extremely on point and well written, Karl. Funny, as I was reading I was thinking how much immigration and race trends - in combination with relatively low income levels - have factored into the inner city and first-ring suburbs being no longer competitive in hockey. Then I got to the last paragraph, and there it is, you address it. Part of the reason I was thinking about race is that I happened to do a paper on minority population trends in Minnesota back when I was in college. The composition of our population - especially within the city limits and inner-ring suburbs - has changed so much since I did that paper that it was foremost in my mind.

As you note things may change when one program within the cities begins to show success, but to be honest I'm not optimistic that this will happen anytime soon. It's no secret that when it comes to developing numbers of higher-end talent, higher income levels are so important. And when you combine that with cultural traditions (i.e. look at soccer) it could take another generation (or more) before we see a predominately black team going to the state tournament.

Just my opinion - hope I'm wrong.

Thanks. I'd agree with your suspicions, especially in the short run. This is not going to be an overnight process. But the demographic trends aren't going to change anytime soon, so to keep the sport's numbers going, it will probably have to happen sooner or later.

Much as I'd enjoy a Mighty Ducks-type story coming out of a city school or inner ring suburb, I think it's far more likely that the first state champion with a number of minority players comes out of some established suburb (or even a private school) where wealthier minorities have decided to settle/send their kids. (Other big cities with more established immigrant populations have little suburbs/parts of suburbs where they tend to concentrate.) That would, at least, set the example and get things rolling.

[Section 8 guy]

To the demographics point.....it will be very interesting to see what the future holds for the Minneapolis Youth program and the Novas high school team with the competitive success of the Mpls Storm youth program in the last three or four years.

If they can begin to keep the top end Storm kids in Mpls schools and playing for the Novas at the high school level, which it appears is beginning to happen, it could be a really fun story to watch and a bit of a Petri dish for the issues you guys are talking about.

[goldy313]

Karl, in your blog you mention the economic disparity between East and Denfeld. In other places, notably Minneapolis and St. Paul but also Rochester, school boards have either on their own or by state mandate stepped in and redrawn boundries to make the schools closer in terms of socioeconomic and racial numbers.

Both Southwest and John Marshall had good hockey programs and bases but changing demographics in the cities as a whole forced a redistribution of the students, often spreading out hockey families too thin to sustain the programs at levels they once had. Minneapolis kids went to private schools while John Marshall's went to Lourdes or the newly opened Century. Century thrived for a 5 year period but a boundry change to make the F/R lunch numbers more equitable has further spread the hockey talent even more thin. (Century during their 5 year run had a F/R rate of ~10% while John Marshall ran ~40% rate)

Will Duluth move to make the two schools more even?

[Zoochu]

To the demographics point.....it will be very interesting to see what the future holds for the Minneapolis Youth program and the Novas high school team with the competitive success of the Mpls Storm youth program in the last three or four years.

If they can begin to keep the top end Storm kids in Mpls schools and playing for the Novas at the high school level, which it appears is beginning to happen, it could be a really fun story to watch and a bit of a Petri dish for the issues you guys are talking about.

It will be interesting indeed, they'll have to find a way not to lose too many kids to private schools like Benilde....

[karl(east)]

Karl, in your blog you mention the economic disparity between East and Denfeld. In other places, notably Minneapolis and St. Paul but also Rochester, school boards have either on their own or by state mandate stepped in and redrawn boundries to make the schools closer in terms of socioeconomic and racial numbers.

Both Southwest and John Marshall had good hockey programs and bases but changing demographics in the cities as a whole forced a redistribution of the students, often spreading out hockey families too thin to sustain the programs at levels they once had. Minneapolis kids went to private schools while John Marshall's went to Lourdes or the newly opened Century. Century thrived for a 5 year period but a boundry change to make the F/R lunch numbers more equitable has further spread the hockey talent even more thin. (Century during their 5 year run had a F/R rate of ~10% while John Marshall ran ~40% rate)

Will Duluth move to make the two schools more even?

Goldy, I think Duluth has already done about as much as it can on this front. If you look at the enrollments, East is over 1,500, while Denfeld may not even have 1,000 now. (Not sure on exact figures due to free/reduced lunch adjustments.) Open enrollment out of Denfeld into Hermantown/Proctor/Esko/etc. explains about half of that gap, but the rest is because the district intentionally made East's area larger to balance socioeconomics--the area just east of downtown Duluth is one of the poorest parts of the city. If they were to actually balance enrollments, Denfeld would be even poorer and East's F/R rate would probably get close to West Metro levels. The enrollment disparity has brought some problems with it also, as they the lack numbers at Denfeld to offer certain classes.

Duluth is such a long, thin, and economically divided city that it's very difficult to redraw the boundaries in a way that could make things equal. I think the only real solution is economic redevelopment on the west side. The city is actively pursuing that, and I'm cautiously optimistic that the west side will eventually emerge from its Rust Belt phase, but it won't happen overnight. In the meantime, flight out of west side schools is a pretty serious issue. The district royally botched its big restructuring plan that closed Central and a number of elementary/middle schools, and left the city with a system that really underscores its divides.

[MNHockeyFan]

Interesting article on Sam Moberg, whose presence starting in 8th grade might have saved St. Paul Johnson as a viable program for the past few years. The question is, how long can the storied Johnson continue as a separate high school team?

http://www.mnhockeyhub.com/news_article/show/589489

[Zoochu]

I am surprised Benilde doesn't get more votes on this poll.

They have a great program, won it in 2012, Ken Pauly seems to be here to stay and they had to cap their enrollment recently because of too many applications so the school seems to do well with enrollment which means they are unlikely to close at any time. They also do have the money needed to get infrastructures and so on.

[east hockey]

I am surprised Benilde doesn't get more votes on this poll.

They have a great program, won it in 2012, Ken Pauly seems to be here to stay and they had to cap their enrollment recently because of too many applications so the school seems to do well with enrollment which means they are unlikely to close at any time. They also do have the money needed to get infrastructures and so on.

More votes? They don't have any votes yet.

Lee