CoVid-19

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kniven
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Re: CoVid-19

Post by kniven » Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:29 pm

A friend of mine and his wife and two kids were infected a few weeks ago.
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blueblood
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Re: CoVid-19

Post by blueblood » Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:34 pm

Ouch. Hope they are getting better knifey
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kniven
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Re: CoVid-19

Post by kniven » Sat Apr 04, 2020 3:00 pm

blueblood wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:34 pm
Ouch. Hope they are getting better knifey
Yea. They are now fine. Unknowns for a couple weeks and solitude. The unknown is what scared them and me the most. So much information/media. So much fear. I just hope people can move beyond this. Once we are allowed not to be afraid anymore.
“218 hockey” Boys of the NOrth ❤️

goldy313
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Re: CoVid-19

Post by goldy313 » Sat Apr 04, 2020 11:49 pm

WestMetro wrote:
Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:39 pm
Goldy , how are you doing symptomwise right now ?
I am fine, thanks for asking.....I went back to work Thursday. I can not comprehend how much has changed in 15 days. It was nothing more than a mild chest cold for me that lasted 3-4 days. I would not have missed work for it had I not been told to. I am lucky, so are the people I would have seen had not the Washington state people intervened.

FWIW, if you want an interesting but geek filled read to figure out what cigar is saying go to Nate Silver’s fivethirtyeight.com site and read the article “Coronavirus counts are meaningless” article. It is heavy into math but the idea comes across pretty well.

My opinion only..... you look what happened in New Orleans with Marci Gras, Miami with spring break, and in Clark County Nevada (Las Vegas), clearly we were infected at a larger rate than we initially thought. Then you have in Minnesota Olmsted County is the second highest in positive tests, so clearly testing is sub optimal.

kniven
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Re: CoVid-19

Post by kniven » Mon Apr 06, 2020 1:10 pm

goldy313 wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 11:49 pm
WestMetro wrote:
Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:39 pm
Goldy , how are you doing symptomwise right now ?
I am fine, thanks for asking.....I went back to work Thursday. I can not comprehend how much has changed in 15 days. It was nothing more than a mild chest cold for me that lasted 3-4 days. I would not have missed work for it had I not been told to. I am lucky, so are the people I would have seen had not the Washington state people intervened.

FWIW, if you want an interesting but geek filled read to figure out what cigar is saying go to Nate Silver’s fivethirtyeight.com site and read the article “Coronavirus counts are meaningless” article. It is heavy into math but the idea comes across pretty well.

My opinion only..... you look what happened in New Orleans with Marci Gras, Miami with spring break, and in Clark County Nevada (Las Vegas), clearly we were infected at a larger rate than we initially thought. Then you have in Minnesota Olmsted County is the second highest in positive tests, so clearly testing is sub optimal.
This could be the new reality. No more high school, college, sporting events, concerts, jobs, vacations, etc. this could be the new reality from here and beyond. There is no end in sight of the fear.
“218 hockey” Boys of the NOrth ❤️

InThePipes
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Re: CoVid-19

Post by InThePipes » Mon Apr 06, 2020 1:52 pm

kniven wrote:
Mon Apr 06, 2020 1:10 pm
goldy313 wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 11:49 pm
WestMetro wrote:
Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:39 pm
Goldy , how are you doing symptomwise right now ?
I am fine, thanks for asking.....I went back to work Thursday. I can not comprehend how much has changed in 15 days. It was nothing more than a mild chest cold for me that lasted 3-4 days. I would not have missed work for it had I not been told to. I am lucky, so are the people I would have seen had not the Washington state people intervened.

FWIW, if you want an interesting but geek filled read to figure out what cigar is saying go to Nate Silver’s fivethirtyeight.com site and read the article “Coronavirus counts are meaningless” article. It is heavy into math but the idea comes across pretty well.

My opinion only..... you look what happened in New Orleans with Marci Gras, Miami with spring break, and in Clark County Nevada (Las Vegas), clearly we were infected at a larger rate than we initially thought. Then you have in Minnesota Olmsted County is the second highest in positive tests, so clearly testing is sub optimal.
This could be the new reality. No more high school, college, sporting events, concerts, jobs, vacations, etc. this could be the new reality from here and beyond. There is no end in sight of the fear.
Turn the news off, we're going to be fine.

kniven
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Location: Duluth area

Re: CoVid-19

Post by kniven » Tue Apr 07, 2020 1:26 am

InThePipes wrote:
Mon Apr 06, 2020 1:52 pm
kniven wrote:
Mon Apr 06, 2020 1:10 pm
goldy313 wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 11:49 pm


I am fine, thanks for asking.....I went back to work Thursday. I can not comprehend how much has changed in 15 days. It was nothing more than a mild chest cold for me that lasted 3-4 days. I would not have missed work for it had I not been told to. I am lucky, so are the people I would have seen had not the Washington state people intervened.

FWIW, if you want an interesting but geek filled read to figure out what cigar is saying go to Nate Silver’s fivethirtyeight.com site and read the article “Coronavirus counts are meaningless” article. It is heavy into math but the idea comes across pretty well.

My opinion only..... you look what happened in New Orleans with Marci Gras, Miami with spring break, and in Clark County Nevada (Las Vegas), clearly we were infected at a larger rate than we initially thought. Then you have in Minnesota Olmsted County is the second highest in positive tests, so clearly testing is sub optimal.
👍

This could be the new reality. No more high school, college, sporting events, concerts, jobs, vacations, etc. this could be the new reality from here and beyond. There is no end in sight of the fear.
Turn the news off, we're going to be fine.
“218 hockey” Boys of the NOrth ❤️

cigar
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Re: CoVid-19

Post by cigar » Tue Apr 07, 2020 9:46 am

CoronaCuresPneumonia.jpg
CoronaCuresPneumonia.jpg (61.11 KiB) Viewed 1156 times
isn't this odd.... what do you suppose is the reason for the dramatic decline in flu deaths this year? Could it be the flu deaths are now being attributed to something else? Or may be the flu bug packed its bags and vanished this year when the CV came on the scene?


OK, here are The BASICS Of Exponents

When there are two exponential curves (e.g. GDP at 1.04, or 4% and Medicare at 1.08, or 8%) where the larger relies on the former you are eventually ****ed. Period.

anyone who argues otherwise is lying. Not mistaken, lying.

We are only arguing when the bad outcome occurs, not whether it will. It will, 100% of the time.

Next up, something like this virus:

1. If the exponent (R0) is increasing you are on the upside and the rate is accelerating. This is bad.

2. If the exponent (R0) is stable but over 1.0 then your transmission rate is stable in the population. This produces a geometric series but the hosing you are going to take is neither getting worse or better.

3. If the exponent (R0) is decreasing but above 1.0 you are on the downside and the rate is decelerating. This is good. You are still going to take a hosing but the hosing is getting less-severe.

4. If the exponent (R0) is below 1.0 then the contagion is extinguishing. This does not mean that the total cases will go to zero permanently; that latter outcome requires there are no reservoirs and that R0 will never go over 1.0 again.

The facts are that it takes time - approximately 5 days for symptoms to first appear, and 5-10 days before they're serious enough that you will be tested if you ask, so whatever case growth rate you measure is 5-10 days behind the actual infection event.

It is a fact that the slope of the R0, measured empirically on a retrospective basis, and thus not subject to opinion, rolled over before the "mitigations" took effect in every case and further, the slope has not changed to the negative since they were put in place. This trend has continued -- here is that same chart updated to last night.
akcs-www.png
akcs-www.png (31.4 KiB) Viewed 1156 times
This is mathematical proof -- not inference, proof -- that the mitigation measures were neither responsible for the rollover nor did they further improve same.

The economic damage we have and continue to take were and are unwarranted; they have done nothing to advance public health. That is a fact. That the politicians believed we were in an increasing R0 environment at the time the measures were adopted does not exonerate them from immediately reversing same as soon as the fact that they were wrong became evident, which occurred less than a week after the measures were imposed.

Hunters1993
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Re: CoVid-19

Post by Hunters1993 » Tue Apr 07, 2020 9:53 am

I’m confused. The first chart is titled pneumonia deaths. Right!
How many c-chip games will it take Hawks?

cigar
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Re: CoVid-19

Post by cigar » Tue Apr 07, 2020 10:08 am

Sorry Hunter, it is pneumonia. Flu was on my mind and I mixed them up...

If you do happen to either find yourself or a loved one fighting for your life with CV there are a couple possible cures you should consider after discussing with your dr ...

hydroxychloroquine with zinc.

Heavy dosage of Vitamin C.

doxycycline is also showing promise.
https://nypost.com/2020/04/04/long-isla ... -patients/
Dr. Alam reports 38 of the 47 patients he had, all of whom were very high risk, have stabilized with this regime. It didn't work for everyone but the fact remains that this looks very promising for people who would otherwise likely be hosed straight-up; these are persons who would be rather likely to be killed by a simple flu.
Is this statistically significant? Not standing alone -- but another word for "anecdote" is "clinical evidence", and when you have a group of people who are otherwise screwed and you can only improve the situation for someone who is likely to die then it certainly looks to me like a positive outcome -- especially when we're talking about people who can't use ZPAK due to their underlying health conditions.

Hunters1993
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Re: CoVid-19

Post by Hunters1993 » Tue Apr 07, 2020 4:17 pm

And what is the second chart represent? Is this a bell curve representing something? What is the error range on each end of this bell curve?
How many c-chip games will it take Hawks?

Hunters1993
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Re: CoVid-19

Post by Hunters1993 » Tue Apr 07, 2020 4:20 pm

Have we done any data collection for Iowa vs Minnesota. Iowa hasn’t done any mitigation until the last few days. Minnesota was a forerunner of using mitigation. Could we make some sort of chart representing the two states at opposite ends of the reaction spectrum.
How many c-chip games will it take Hawks?

cigar
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Re: CoVid-19

Post by cigar » Tue Apr 07, 2020 4:38 pm

The data assumes that testing is in fact taking place and we're catching cases on the same basis. That is, it does not matter if you are only catch serious cases (e.g. people who have a fever, etc) provided you always do so on the same basis over time. It does not matter if you randomly test people for active virus instead, provided you always do that over time. You can set the testing parameters (what you must present with to get a test) however you want and so long as that parameter remains the same over time the results are valid because the proportion of the cases you catch will remain constant -- that's the key.
This also presumes a 4-5 day "generation" time (I'm using 5.) That's our best guess; changing that is easy of course. How do you know you have the generation time right? To a material degree it's a guess, but we can back into it using the inflection points on the daily case graphs.

(As a note this is a smoothed computation off the daily deltas over each period; non-smoothed tends to err higher if you're curious. I'm giving the mitigation strategies the benefit of the doubt, in other words.)

This data is from the national (and state level ) survey data updated every day at 4:00 ET; I use the daily update so it is consistent. The Sweden data is from the European survey information and I go back and check it as their test data apparently comes in sometimes late, so a given date will update back a couple of days pretty much all the time (e.g. a handful of positives that weren't on the given day, but a day later are there.) Note that Sweden has urged people at high risk to stay at home and has issued guidelines, but with few exceptions (e.g. large gatherings, etc) has not issued force-stay-at-home or "lockdown" orders.

cigar
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Re: CoVid-19

Post by cigar » Tue Apr 07, 2020 6:13 pm

CDC1.jpg
CDC1.jpg (201.34 KiB) Viewed 1027 times


https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/vsrg/vsrg03-508.pdf
cdc2.jpg
cdc2.jpg (250.08 KiB) Viewed 1027 times

padding the stats a little more...

cigar
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Re: CoVid-19

Post by cigar » Tue Apr 07, 2020 6:27 pm

The following are the nine states that have refused to impose lockdowns. Five of them have not enacted even local lockdowns:

Arkansas – 14 deaths. No statewide or local lockdowns.
Iowa – 14 deaths. No statewide or local lockdowns.
Nebraska – 8 deaths. No statewide or local lockdowns.
North Dakota – 3 deaths. No statewide or local lockdowns.
Oklahoma – 42 deaths.
South Carolina – 40 deaths.
South Dakota – 2 deaths. No statewide or local lockdowns.
Utah – 8 deaths.
Wyoming – 0 deaths.
[Data of stats; April 6]

east hockey
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Re: CoVid-19

Post by east hockey » Tue Apr 07, 2020 6:38 pm

cigar wrote:
Tue Apr 07, 2020 6:27 pm
The following are the nine states that have refused to impose lockdowns. Five of them have not enacted even local lockdowns:

Arkansas – 14 deaths. No statewide or local lockdowns.
Iowa – 14 deaths. No statewide or local lockdowns.
Nebraska – 8 deaths. No statewide or local lockdowns.
North Dakota – 3 deaths. No statewide or local lockdowns.
Oklahoma – 42 deaths.
South Carolina – 40 deaths.
South Dakota – 2 deaths. No statewide or local lockdowns.
Utah – 8 deaths.
Wyoming – 0 deaths.
[Data of stats; April 6]
I only hope and pray that you and yours don't become a statistic. And also that nobody pays attention to you and needlessly exposes themselves to the virus.

You've made your point. It's in direct opposition to many doctors. Who I believe is simple--not you. You're the opposite of a fear mongerer--someone who has a pre-determined believe and does nothing but find "data" to support your erroneous belief.

And don't bullsh!t me about you not being political while accusing others of doing same. Your politics are obvious and putrid.

You're done in this topic.

Lee
Message Board arsonist since 2005
Egomaniac since 2006

InThePipes
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Re: CoVid-19

Post by InThePipes » Tue Apr 07, 2020 6:49 pm

Turn the news off, we're going to be fine. :D

ThatMNHockeyGuy62
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Re: CoVid-19

Post by ThatMNHockeyGuy62 » Tue Apr 07, 2020 9:10 pm

Well said Lee. I do think there is a middle ground somewhere between “we will be shut down for the next 18 months until there’s a vaccine” and the apparently non-political :roll: talking points of cigar.

I’m guessing his participation in this thread is shut down or close to it, but I would like to respond to one of his “facts” based on data. His argument of the 10 day back-computed chart of R0 (rate of infection) to account for how long after infection to testing positive is flawed logic beyond the fact that his numbers weren’t cited anywhere. The data may well be fine, but actually hurts his anti-distancing argument. He claims it’s a fact that numbers of new infections were dropping before social distancing took place. He may be correct in terms of “shelter in place” orders, but most people who take this seriously (the people following shelter-place-orders once they were instituted) were already practicing pretty severe social distancing about a week before March 21. The NBA season postponement (and other major sports directly after) happened almost two weeks before the 21st. That weekend (March 14-15) is when many people started taking this seriously and staying home. March 16 is when many schools closed. So, that infections slowed down about 5 days after this seems to be pretty good evidence that social distances DID impact the slow down.

Browniemagoo
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Re: CoVid-19

Post by Browniemagoo » Tue Apr 07, 2020 9:31 pm

Gotta see the forest through the trees. The point of shelter in place/safer at home is to keep our hospitals from getting overloaded. If you want to get back out there and risk exposing yourself and others to the virus, don't trip and bust your head open on a bus sign...there may not be an ambulance to pick you up or an ER with capacity to treat you. The virus is here, and it's going to keep spreading, so we need to do what we can to allow our medical professionals the time they need to get ahead of this thing.

Section 8 guy
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Re: CoVid-19

Post by Section 8 guy » Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:58 am

Thanks Lee for saving what should be a helpful and informative thread. That was exhausting.

BobSaget
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Re: CoVid-19

Post by BobSaget » Wed Apr 08, 2020 7:30 am

east hockey wrote:
Tue Apr 07, 2020 6:38 pm

I only hope and pray that you and yours don't become a statistic. And also that nobody pays attention to you and needlessly exposes themselves to the virus.

You've made your point. It's in direct opposition to many doctors. Who I believe is simple--not you. You're the opposite of a fear mongerer--someone who has a pre-determined believe and does nothing but find "data" to support your erroneous belief.

And don't bullsh!t me about you not being political while accusing others of doing same. Your politics are obvious and putrid.

You're done in this topic.

Lee
Thanks, Lee.

"Sheep" tend to believe everything they see in the media.
"Contrarians" believe this is a controlled coverup of an economic system facing inevitable collapse.
"Trump guys" advise taking hydroxychloroquine with zinc, eating an orange, and putting in a few 16 hour work days to bolster the economy.

Pretty easy to see where 'cigar' fit in...and it was most definitely politically motivated.

silentbutdeadly3139
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Re: CoVid-19

Post by silentbutdeadly3139 » Wed Apr 08, 2020 10:43 pm

east hockey wrote:
Tue Apr 07, 2020 6:38 pm
I only hope and pray that you and yours don't become a statistic. And also that nobody pays attention to you and needlessly exposes themselves to the virus.

You've made your point. It's in direct opposition to many doctors. Who I believe is simple--not you. You're the opposite of a fear mongerer--someone who has a pre-determined believe and does nothing but find "data" to support your erroneous belief.

And don't bullsh!t me about you not being political while accusing others of doing same. Your politics are obvious and putrid.

You're done in this topic.

Lee
I found cigars info interesting,think its valuable that there are different perspectives to make sure people aren't clouded by bias, misinformation etc. but i guess if they don't agree with your perspective its "putrid" and i guess you get squash anything you don't agree with. I see now what happened to all those that left the forum. Add one more ... good bye

east hockey
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Re: CoVid-19

Post by east hockey » Wed Apr 08, 2020 11:11 pm

silentbutdeadly3139 wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 10:43 pm
east hockey wrote:
Tue Apr 07, 2020 6:38 pm
I only hope and pray that you and yours don't become a statistic. And also that nobody pays attention to you and needlessly exposes themselves to the virus.

You've made your point. It's in direct opposition to many doctors. Who I believe is simple--not you. You're the opposite of a fear mongerer--someone who has a pre-determined believe and does nothing but find "data" to support your erroneous belief.

And don't bullsh!t me about you not being political while accusing others of doing same. Your politics are obvious and putrid.

You're done in this topic.

Lee
I found cigars info interesting,think its valuable that there are different perspectives to make sure people aren't clouded by bias, misinformation etc. but i guess if they don't agree with your perspective its "putrid" and i guess you get squash anything you don't agree with. I see now what happened to all those that left the forum. Add one more ... good bye
The point you're missing is that he was clouded by bias. Other than that, I'm not interested in discussing Board policies with you or anybody else. Certainly not in the Forum.

Stay, leave. I don't care.

Lee
Message Board arsonist since 2005
Egomaniac since 2006

kniven
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Re: CoVid-19

Post by kniven » Thu Apr 09, 2020 12:01 am

I don’t like the conona virus thread. This is forum for high school hockey. Information and opinion every and everywhere out there. I think this thread should be locked and go away. Come here for puck 👍

I’m not going anywhere unless I’m booted. I’m sure most are disappointed.
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Wise Old Man
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Re: CoVid-19

Post by Wise Old Man » Thu Apr 09, 2020 12:37 am

Lee, although I agree that "cigar's" info shows a probable political bent, I have to say that from my perspective, he wasn't being outwardly or directly confrontational in an overtly political or personal way. Others may disagree with that opinion and, my guess is you probably do since you chose to suspend him. I'll be honest, I'm as anti-Trump as it gets. Still, I respectfully find the decision to suspend/remove "cigar" based simply on him presenting an alternative opinion about this situation to be a little concerning as it's my understanding that the idea behind the existence of these types of forums is for the genuine discussion and debate of the various topics that evolve within the greater Minnesota hockey community, albeit in as respectful and ideally, non-confrontational manner as possible.

The topic of this thread is supposedly devoted to Covid-19 and, again, it's just my opinion but, he wasn't straying from that topic. I agree that the information he provided definitely seems to be contrary to the majority of medical experts that are offering their opinions on Covid-19 and, I personally don't agree with what he presented. However, isn't that respectful exchange of ideas, as well as the possible disagreement/debate of those ideas, the cornerstone of what these forums are really all about? Obviously, you're one of the moderators so you have the power to react to any post or poster in the manner you choose. I only hope that you don't allow your personal opinions or biases to affect how you choose to "discipline" people, especially if their actions don't truly go outside the boundaries of what is normally allowed or, aren't causing widespread anger and frustration within a given topic. For instance, I think the poster "defense" has been far more damaging recently to these boards than "cigar". Obviously, a completely different type of topic. Still, it was fairly obvious he was genuinely just trying to stir the pot in the Hermantown thread for about six straight pages. Anyway, just thought I'd offer my perspective. Thanks for listening and stay safe.

Locked