Is your son an elite player?

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YouthHockeyHub
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Is your son an elite player?

Post by YouthHockeyHub » Thu May 31, 2012 1:16 pm

I crunched some numbers on a math equation that has always something I wanted to figure out (what are the odds of making it beyond high school).

Hope to hear your thoughts.

Enjoy,

TS

http://youthhockeyhub.com/is-your-son-an-elite-player/

O-townClown
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Post by O-townClown » Thu May 31, 2012 2:58 pm

Tony, one good thing about numbers, is when they hit you feel no pain.

Nice piece, but the scholarship number is way high. Of the 59 schools, not all are "fully funded" with the maximum allowable scholarships. The military academies and Ivy League schools are non-scholarship (meaning no athletic scholarship), as are some others - including Frozen Four participant Union. Other schools offer scholarships, but not as many as rules permit.

Still, the premise of your article is accurate.
Be kind. Rewind.

JSR
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Post by JSR » Thu May 31, 2012 3:13 pm

O-townClown wrote:Tony, one good thing about numbers, is when they hit you feel no pain.

Nice piece, but the scholarship number is way high. Of the 59 schools, not all are "fully funded" with the maximum allowable scholarships. The military academies and Ivy League schools are non-scholarship (meaning no athletic scholarship), as are some others - including Frozen Four participant Union. Other schools offer scholarships, but not as many as rules permit.

Still, the premise of your article is accurate.
While you are 100% correct about the scholarship numbers the numbers Tony used would also still be accurate in the sense that they are a rough reflection of the number of roster spots available in D1 hockey and playing D1 hockey and occupying a roster spot on a D1 squad (with or without the scholarship) still feeds to the premise of "elite" in the sense of what his article was getting at I think.

YouthHockeyHub
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Post by YouthHockeyHub » Thu May 31, 2012 3:34 pm

Yes, I know that even some mega schools like the U give partials.

My point was it is inherent if you play DI, you are getting some or all of your school played for and the level of play is darn good, even if you are playing at a school no one here in MN hasn't heard of. I have a buddy who played for Harvard and although he didn't get a scholarship, he paid less than I did for a public school university education.

Glad you guys like it. It was a fun article to write. I asked a "crazy" AAA mom the other day of what she thought elite was. Her response was spot on, "I don't know, if someone pays more than $10 to watch 'em play would constitute elite to me..."

In other words, D1.

The other fun part was digging up the number of Minnesotans in the NHL and at D1 and D3. I learned a lot about the journey our kids will face.

MrBoDangles
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Post by MrBoDangles » Fri Jun 01, 2012 8:25 am

What are the odds for a 99' that is putting in the extra hours on an upper end AAA(summer) team?

Break down the "50 a year" over the 6-8 higher end AAA teams and the odds look much better.

30-40%, Tony?




*Could be 49 if there's a lone kid (BBJ) that puts the skates away for the Summer.

YouthHockeyHub
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Post by YouthHockeyHub » Fri Jun 01, 2012 10:12 am

Here's my first thought to your response:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KX5jNnDMfxA

100 per class is the number I came up with for each year (no matter when little Bo makes a move 100+ will get DI money). So if he's 49-50 depending on who you ask...he's a lock.

On a side note: I think the '99 class will be one of the better ones our state will produce.

Trash Hauler
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Post by Trash Hauler » Fri Jun 01, 2012 10:22 am

YouthHockeyHub wrote:Here's my first thought to your response:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KX5jNnDMfxA

100 per class is the number I came up with for each year (no matter when little Bo makes a move 100+ will get DI money). So if he's 49-50 depending on who you ask...he's a lock.

On a side note: I think the '99 class will be one of the better ones our state will produce.
I would suggest that no '99 is a lock at this point in their career, no matter how much time they are putting in on the super summer teams (they really are "summer teams" and not "AAA"). Maybe some hopefuls and probables, but no locks.

old goalie85
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Post by old goalie85 » Fri Jun 01, 2012 10:34 am

The big kids from LV South/99 Orange would seem to be as close to a lock as you can get @ that age. But, yes I agreeno locks yet.These kids[for the most part] still haven't opened that can of worms called "female".

old goalie85
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Post by old goalie85 » Fri Jun 01, 2012 10:36 am

I meant big kid, not kids. typo

BadgerBob82
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Post by BadgerBob82 » Fri Jun 01, 2012 11:20 am

The word I'm getting from the D1 scouts, they are pretty well finished with forwards with the 99's. They are looking for a few "sleepers", but generally have all the forwards they are looking for.

Defensemen are the need at the 99 age level. If your forward hasn't been presented an offer yet, better consider moving him to defense.

Goalies are always a crapshoot at this age. Few have been given offers as of now.

Trash Hauler
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Post by Trash Hauler » Fri Jun 01, 2012 12:40 pm

BadgerBob82 wrote:The word I'm getting from the D1 scouts, they are pretty well finished with forwards with the 99's. They are looking for a few "sleepers", but generally have all the forwards they are looking for.

Defensemen are the need at the 99 age level. If your forward hasn't been presented an offer yet, better consider moving him to defense.

Goalies are always a crapshoot at this age. Few have been given offers as of now.
I'm not sure if you are kidding, or have just lost all credibility with me.

DrGaf
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Post by DrGaf » Fri Jun 01, 2012 12:41 pm

YouthHockeyHub wrote:On a side note: I think the '99 class will be one of the better ones our state will produce.
2000's by a long shot. So deep, so much talent from all over the metro.

Including a possibility of 3-4 "phenom"-type players at that level.

YouthHockeyHub
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Post by YouthHockeyHub » Fri Jun 01, 2012 1:15 pm

Trash Hauler wrote:
YouthHockeyHub wrote:Here's my first thought to your response:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KX5jNnDMfxA

100 per class is the number I came up with for each year (no matter when little Bo makes a move 100+ will get DI money). So if he's 49-50 depending on who you ask...he's a lock.

On a side note: I think the '99 class will be one of the better ones our state will produce.
I would suggest that no '99 is a lock at this point in their career, no matter how much time they are putting in on the super summer teams (they really are "summer teams" and not "AAA"). Maybe some hopefuls and probables, but no locks.
Totally agree TH. With tongue in cheek was merely stating if Bo jr. were in fact #50 and remained #50, he is a lock. As of today 117 MN kids have secured new DI money for next year. I have no crystal ball as to who those 100+ are from '99.

Trash Hauler
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Post by Trash Hauler » Fri Jun 01, 2012 1:20 pm

DrGaf wrote:
YouthHockeyHub wrote:On a side note: I think the '99 class will be one of the better ones our state will produce.
2000's by a long shot. So deep, so much talent from all over the metro.

Including a possibility of 3-4 "phenom"-type players at that level.
Have the "phenom" type players completed puberty yet? That could determine whether it's 3 or 4........have the non "phenom" players entered puberty yet? That could also help pin it down. My sons voice is starting to change a bit, so we should know soon if he is a "phenom" or a flop.

YouthHockeyHub
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Post by YouthHockeyHub » Fri Jun 01, 2012 1:22 pm

DrGaf wrote:
YouthHockeyHub wrote:On a side note: I think the '99 class will be one of the better ones our state will produce.
2000's by a long shot. So deep, so much talent from all over the metro.

Including a possibility of 3-4 "phenom"-type players at that level.
Respectully disagree. I have a vast knowledge of these two birth years, my take is that the '99s are much deeper and stronger. Just one man's take.

Chandler23
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Post by Chandler23 » Fri Jun 01, 2012 1:26 pm

You guys are idiots...

Trash Hauler
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Post by Trash Hauler » Fri Jun 01, 2012 1:31 pm

YouthHockeyHub wrote:
DrGaf wrote:
YouthHockeyHub wrote:On a side note: I think the '99 class will be one of the better ones our state will produce.
2000's by a long shot. So deep, so much talent from all over the metro.

Including a possibility of 3-4 "phenom"-type players at that level.
Respectully disagree. I have a vast knowledge of these two birth years, my take is that the '99s are much deeper and stronger. Just one man's take.
A fantastic example of the urge to pre judge the success potential of children when they are 11 and 12, or even younger. Either of you could be right, but you won't know for some time yet. Most of the changes to youth hockey programming that are occuring through out North America is to protect against this line of thinking. It's very detrimental to the long term success of hockey players in North America.

observer
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Post by observer » Fri Jun 01, 2012 2:04 pm

'99s are much deeper and stronger. Just one man's take.
One guy with a 99 son.

jpiehl
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Post by jpiehl » Fri Jun 01, 2012 2:34 pm

DrGaf wrote:
YouthHockeyHub wrote:On a side note: I think the '99 class will be one of the better ones our state will produce.
2000's by a long shot. So deep, so much talent from all over the metro.

Including a possibility of 3-4 "phenom"-type players at that level.
And another with a 2000 son...

MrBoDangles
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Post by MrBoDangles » Fri Jun 01, 2012 3:42 pm

YouthHockeyHub wrote:Here's my first thought to your response:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KX5jNnDMfxA

100 per class is the number I came up with for each year (no matter when little Bo makes a move 100+ will get DI money). So if he's 49-50 depending on who you ask...he's a lock.

On a side note: I think the '99 class will be one of the better ones our state will produce.
Are you saying the bulk of the 100 will come from other places than the top 6-8 (99") AAA teams I mentioned.

LSS
Machine
Nationals
Blades
Gold
Icemen
Wings
etc.

Where do you think they'll pop out of? If you're ever able to give a straight answer.

And what association were/are your kids in? You never answered....

I probably shouldn't post the video (had cups in it) that came to mind from your response. O:)

MrBoDangles
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Post by MrBoDangles » Fri Jun 01, 2012 4:19 pm

Delete
Last edited by MrBoDangles on Sat Jun 02, 2012 12:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.

MNM JMH
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Post by MNM JMH » Fri Jun 01, 2012 4:58 pm

If you are posting on this topic in regards to going D1 then you are that Parent. You dreams are going to be crushed. Not saying that your kids won't go D1 but getting offers. Wake up. Never happened yet.

Hey but keep living the dream. Cash is king , so is ice time. Hope they all keep growing. Keep spending the cash..

If you are smart quite playing AAA summer hockey now and lift weights and work on speed.

Total idiots... :x :x :P :shock: :x

The Enlightened One
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Post by The Enlightened One » Fri Jun 01, 2012 10:30 pm

I think the prudent thing to do while chasing this dream it to figure out how much it is going to cost you to get Little Johnnie to the D1 level. I know that MN Association hockey is the absolute best model to get kids to the pro level so there is a little bit of wiggle room here but.................

Figure out what it is gonna cost you, add it the fees, gas, hotels, extra equipment, personal trainers and etc and get your number for this summer. Now take that number and divide it in half. Take one half and invest it in a 529I fund (Nevada has a good one) so that when your 4'8" boys grows to the towering height of 5'6" (which is what you and your wife tower to) and drops hockey you have a way of helping him go to college. Take that other half and look at your budget, pay off a few credit card bills, fix the car, buy a fishing pole and license for your kid and send him to the lake. Get off of the treadmill, relax and enjoy life. The politics of association hockey are such that everybody needs a break from them (and summer hockey is not a break) to relax, get a new tube of lip balm, figure out who is the A team coach for Little Johnnie next year and go spend some money with his business to earn some brownie points, go get that jacket that has your association's name splashed all over it and buy it and start to wear it around. August can be jacket weather in MN. This is the year that your little Johnnie is gonna figure out that there are difference other than the fact that most girls have longer hair than boys do so summer training is gonna be a bust. The biggest thing that you have to know is that now that your little speedster is done with PeeWee hockey he is going to play Bantam hockey he is gonna get hit, often. The whole dangly, squirt approach to hockey that the PeeWee teams continued with has come to an end so lots of them (perhaps even little Johnnie) are going to drop hockey anyhow so there is even more incentive to save your money as your little guy might be one of the herd that is gonna drop hockey in favor of other pursuits.

MNM JMH
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Post by MNM JMH » Sat Jun 02, 2012 9:38 am

The Enlightened One wrote:I think the prudent thing to do while chasing this dream it to figure out how much it is going to cost you to get Little Johnnie to the D1 level. I know that MN Association hockey is the absolute best model to get kids to the pro level so there is a little bit of wiggle room here but.................

Figure out what it is gonna cost you, add it the fees, gas, hotels, extra equipment, personal trainers and etc and get your number for this summer. Now take that number and divide it in half. Take one half and invest it in a 529I fund (Nevada has a good one) so that when your 4'8" boys grows to the towering height of 5'6" (which is what you and your wife tower to) and drops hockey you have a way of helping him go to college. Take that other half and look at your budget, pay off a few credit card bills, fix the car, buy a fishing pole and license for your kid and send him to the lake. Get off of the treadmill, relax and enjoy life. The politics of association hockey are such that everybody needs a break from them (and summer hockey is not a break) to relax, get a new tube of lip balm, figure out who is the A team coach for Little Johnnie next year and go spend some money with his business to earn some brownie points, go get that jacket that has your association's name splashed all over it and buy it and start to wear it around. August can be jacket weather in MN. This is the year that your little Johnnie is gonna figure out that there are difference other than the fact that most girls have longer hair than boys do so summer training is gonna be a bust. The biggest thing that you have to know is that now that your little speedster is done with PeeWee hockey he is going to play Bantam hockey he is gonna get hit, often. The whole dangly, squirt approach to hockey that the PeeWee teams continued with has come to an end so lots of them (perhaps even little Johnnie) are going to drop hockey anyhow so there is even more incentive to save your money as your little guy might be one of the herd that is gonna drop hockey in favor of other pursuits.
Well said Sir.

And I thought I had run on sentences. :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: 8)

old goalie85
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Post by old goalie85 » Sat Jun 02, 2012 10:23 am

Nice post Enlightened one.

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