AA Rankings for 2/5/23

[karl(east)]

Just two weeks remain in the regular season, and outside of the top spot, not much is settled here. The number of scenarios still in play here is fascinating, and I’m at a point where I’m trying to read momentum and eye tests and belief in how playoff games are won and lost as much as I ever have. All will be revealed in a few weeks, but for now, here’s an attempt to make sense of it all.

1. Minnetonka (19-2)
-One thing, at least, is easy: the gap between the Skippers and everyone else only grew this past week, as they avenged one of their earlier losses with a convincing showing against Wayzata and then buried a Buffalo team fresh off two big upsets. They are the undisputed number one now, and could lose a game and retain this spot, even if they lose to #2 in this week’s clash.
This week: Thurs vs. St. Louis Park, Sat at #2 Edina

2. Edina (15-4-1)
-It wasn’t fancy, but the Hornets got the job done with twin 2-1 wins over increasingly pesky Hill-Murray, and in 2023, that’s enough to hold on to the 2-spot in these rankings. It isn’t overly convincing, but the Hornets have only lost once (to Minnetonka) since their first three, Jackson Nevers-less games of the season. We’ll see if they can do better the second time around, though recent results suggest they can’t overlook their Thursday game, either.
This week: Thurs at Buffalo, Sat vs. #1 Minnetonka

3. Rogers (14-3-3)
-It was a week of lows and highs for the Royals, who started out by joining the Let’s Lose to Buffalo Club before looking impressive against Maple Grove on Friday night. That win should clinch the top seed in 5AA, for whatever it’s worth in a tough four-team section, and on the whole leaves me bullish about them, despite the rough loss; ultimately, they are showing more there than the teams that are beating up on lesser opposition. They make a couple of long road trips north this week for two very different tests, first against the steady Spuds, then against some surging Greyhounds.
This week: Tues at Moorhead, Thurs at Spring Lake Park, Sat at #11 Duluth East

4. Andover (16-5-1)
-Methodically plowing through unranked teams; Grand Rapids hung around for a while, which doesn’t fully rule out the upset possibility if these two meet at Amsoil in a few weeks, but there wasn’t much doubt which team was in control, either. This run they’ve been on hasn’t featured much in the way of quality wins, so this week’s rematch with a Maple Grove team that is skidding a bit but handed them their last loss will be telling for the direction of both teams. Have they improved enough in back to defend against a potent attack?
This week: Tues vs. Blaine, Sat at #7 Maple Grove

5. Chanhassen (19-2)
-As you were: the Storm are back to steady, strong wins against lesser competition. This week’s two rematches from earlier in the season are a little bit more interesting, albeit still ones they should win. Orono did give them a two-goal game the first time around, so we’ll see if the Spartans can repeat that feat. Gentry, on the other hand, lost to them 6-1.
This week: Thurs vs. Gentry Academy, Sat at Orono

6. St. Thomas Academy (16-5)
-Avenged an earlier loss to Mahtomedi and have now won six in a row, playing exactly the sort of defensive hockey that will suit them come sections. They seem to be playing their best hockey of the season right now, unlike Maple Grove and Wayzata, so I decided that should get rewarded. They make the rounds in 4AA this coming week, visiting a very hit-or-miss Stillwater squad before a game with Hill-Murray that will hopefully someone score.
This week: Tues at Stillwater, Sat at Hill-Murray

7. Maple Grove (16-5-1)
-The Crimson saw Rogers oust them from their roost atop the 5AA seeding this past week, and even a win over Totino-Grace was a bit tighter than expected. (Fun fact: both of their goals in that 2-0 win were shorthanded.) This raises some questions about how to rank a team whose top-to-bottom résumé is one of the best, but has been trending in the wrong direction in recent weeks. (Just four weeks ago, they were ranked second, behind top-ranked Wayzata: how things have changed.) A win against Andover this week would go some way toward restoring order.
This week: Sat vs. #3 Andover

8. Wayzata (14-5-2)
-The Trojans saw their winless streak run to five games when they lost to Minnetonka, though they did recover with a solid shutout of Grand Rapids. How concerned should we be? This week’s Eden Prairie game should be telling: while the Eagles are certainly an upset threat, the Trojans have been so reliable against that level of competition this season that they should be able to pull this out. If the struggles continue, the concerns are real.
This week: Tues at St. Michael-Albertville, Sat at Eden Prairie

9. Lakeville South (14-5-1)
-The Cougars had a solid week, defeating Cretin and Shakopee to collect a couple more quality wins and nudging upward in the rankings. I don’t have a ton of confidence in this, but here they are, and on paper they have a good chance of winning out and amassing a pretty good record.
This week: Tues vs. Eagan, Sat at Farmington

10. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (14-6)
-The Red Knights remain a complicated case. This past week they rose as far as #2 in the computer models with the best track records, but a 2-0 loss to Eden Prairie made me feel validated in my persistent Benilde skepticism. They’re just too unpredictable against good competition to give me any confidence. The next four games are vital, as they play two fringe upset threats, a Class A power who’d be within a few spots of them in a two-class ranking, and a rematch with a Chanhassen team they recently clubbed. Will we get a real sense of the direction this team is trending?
This week: Tues at Orono, Fri at Hermantown, Sat at Grand Rapids

11. Duluth East (14-6-1)
-The Hounds’ offense continues to fire along, this time putting up seven in a quality win over Centennial, which helps to show their output isn’t strictly a function of the schedule. Weather wiped out their date with Champlin, which will hopefully get made up in these last two weeks of the season; as it is, the week ahead features a rival fresh off a quality win over aforementioned Champlin and then a huge test against one of AA’s best. What is this improving team’s ceiling?
This week: Mon vs. Cloquet, Sat vs. #3 Rogers

12. Cretin-Derham Hall (15-7-1)
-The Raiders seemed to find their level this past week after an up-and-down month of January. A convincing win over Blake shows they are better than that next tier of teams, and the victory over White Bear helps them in the rankings. The loss to Lakeville South, however, suggests they are still on the outside looking in of the top 10. Just two games left, the first being a clash with schizophrenic Stillwater.
This week: Tues at Stillwater

13. White Bear Lake (14-5)
-The Bears got a solid result by beating Champlin, though the Rebels’ loss later in the week diminishes that a little bit, and a defeat at the hands of Cretin leaves them 1-3 in this run of four recent games against quality teams. Avenging an earlier loss to Stillwater this week would help the cause a bit, especially as they head into a wide open 4AA in which they remain the top-ranked team, even as Hill shows more and more signs of finding its stride.
This week: Tues at East Ridge, Sat vs. Stillwater

14. Centennial (12-7-1)
-The Cougars couldn’t quite keep pace with Duluth East in a goal-filled game, then dispatched of two lesser conference opponents. Their top line can match up with just about anyone, but despite some big wins, they’ve lacked the staying power of some of their deeper opponents in this neighborhood of the rankings. Three games this week, some of which could get interesting if they’re not careful, but all wins on paper.
This week: Tues at Mounds View, Thurs vs. Elk River, Sat at Anoka

15. Holy Family (16-5)
-The Fire tallied three untroubled wins this past week, including an impressive double-digit affair against Class A contender Delano. They’ve finally cracked the top 15 after weeks of hovering and are unlikely to fall given their opposition this week, though they could get jumped if one of the teams behind them who has tougher competition (and there are several) makes a move.
This week: Thurs vs. Park (Cottage Grove), Sat at Southwest Christian/Richfield

The Next Ten

Eden Prairie (10-10-1)
-The positive signs continue for the Eagles, who held off respectable Stillwater before shutting out the potent Benilde attack. They may not get a playoff home game, but they’re going to be a nasty opponent, both for Holy Family (assuming they get the Fire in the quarterfinals) and anyone else they may face with after that if they get a win. They gave Wayzata a one-goal game the first time around, and with both teams trending in different directions, this Saturday’s rematch gives them a chance to really make a statement.

Champlin Park (14-7)
-The Rebels’ appearance in the top ten was a brief one, as they couldn’t hang with White Bear Lake and then, more concerningly, took a tumble against Cloquet. They’ve had their flashes, but there a couple rough results that leave them on the fringes of things. They shouldn’t be troubled this coming week unless the East game reappears somewhere in here.

Moorhead (11-9)
-Took care of East Grand Forks and Elk River, a solid showing that helps them out a little bit here. A collision with Rogers this week gives them a real chance to show something, and they’ve got middling Lakeville North and Sartell teams as well.

Roseau (13-7-1)
-Cleaned up a couple of 8AA rivals, including a Bemidji team that had been making its way up the section standings. They’re continuing to do what they need to do to suggest they can make a run in 8AA. Thief River Falls is up first this week, followed by a Grand Forks Red River team that has taken down the likes of Holy Family this season, so that may be a good, if not particularly informative, game.

Shakopee (13-6)
-Par for the course for the Sabers, as they took care of Eagan but lost to Lakeville South. All in all, they’ve been one of the steadier teams this season. The week ahead is not easy, with a home-and-home with Prior Lake that will be one of the final words in the convoluted 2AA seeding race, and improving Rosemount sandwiched in between.

Hill-Murray (10-10-1)
-A four-game week saw the Pioneers edge past Mahtomedi for a second time this season, and while they couldn’t break through for a W against Edina, they were dangerous enough to justify maintaining a strong ranking.

Eastview (13-7)
-Just when it looked like the Lightning were back on track, Chaska came along made a mess of things. This group then rebounded with a passable win over Gentry, but the body of work lately just doesn’t say borderline top 15, as it did a month ago. An important 3AA seeding game with Rosemount is up this week, along with Lakeville North.

Buffalo (10-8-2)
-This is one of those cases where you throw out the body of work and buy into recent results: the Bison’s wins over Wayzata and Rogers show they can take out just about anyone when they’re on. (Anyone other than Minnetonka, that is, as the running time loss to the Skippers shows their ceiling.) We’ll see if they can muster anything against Edina this week.

Rosemount (9-9-1)
-A tie with Prior Lake is meh, but the Irish are otherwise continuing a reasonably good second half and holding up where others have not. The week ahead is a huge one for this team, as they face Eastview in a crucial 3AA seeding game, Shakopee in a big game for the rankings, and Centennial to top it all off.

Stillwater (11-6-3)
-The Woodbury loss doesn’t help the Ponies’ cause, but they’ve done just enough against enough teams this season and retain a pretty good record against a tougher schedule, which is more than can be said for most of the other contenders for this spot. A huge week featuring St. Thomas, Cretin, and White Bear will say a lot about their standing heading into sections.

[HSLinemaker]

Great Job Karl!! First time that I can remember that Buffalo has gotten some print. Their program has squandered in mediocrity for decades. They must have hired some qualified people and coaches recently.

[WestMetro]

Nice report!

Skippers looked dominant against Wayzata

But then so did Rogers against MG

What to make of it ?

Karls best line of the year this week :

“joining the Let’s Lose to Buffalo Club ”

[Cookster]

Buffalo's Coaches -- Last Names the same...

Aaron Johnson
Head Coach

Thomas Johnson
Assistant Coach

Bruce Johnson
Assistant Coach

[TTpuckster]

Buffalo's Coaches -- Last Names the same...

Aaron Johnson
Head Coach

Thomas Johnson
Assistant Coach

Bruce Johnson
Assistant Coach

Bros?

[ClassAGuy]

Buffalo's Coaches -- Last Names the same...

Aaron Johnson
Head Coach

Thomas Johnson
Assistant Coach

Bruce Johnson
Assistant Coach

Bros?

Bruce Dad (HOF Coach)

Sons/Brothers Aaron & Tom

[BlueLineSpecial]

Buffalo's Coaches -- Last Names the same...

Aaron Johnson
Head Coach

Thomas Johnson
Assistant Coach

Bruce Johnson
Assistant Coach

Bros?

Bruce Dad (HOF Coach)

Sons/Brothers Aaron & Tom

Nepo babies!!!

[east hockey]

Buffalo's Coaches -- Last Names the same...

Aaron Johnson
Head Coach

Thomas Johnson
Assistant Coach

Bruce Johnson
Assistant Coach

Just had a Blazing Saddles flashback

Lee

[goldy313]

Lee is the respected voice of hockey. That said East Alum Dave Spehar promoted John Marshall this week! We Rockets take everything positive we can get

[Brodziak Fan Club]

Edina at Buffalo is a major trap game with the big one against Tonka looming for the Hornets.

Knowing Coach Giles I'm sure he has the team's attention in practice this week, but it should be an interesting score to monitor on Thursday.

[elliott70]

Early voting looks like
Moorhead and Rogers need to switch places.

[TTpuckster]

Wow, what a crazy whirlwind year.
It seems the only 2 consistent teams are Warroad and now Minnetonka.
I suspect that most of the section playoffs are going to be very interesting, (but not funny).
Not funny, but fun!

[ryguyMN]

Section playoffs, specifically the semis and finals, in 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 should be really good. Truly a year where anything can happen in AA.

[Smooth]

It will be a lot of fun