Hi all,
I'll be attempting to keep a steady stream of computerized rankings flowing for both the Boys & Girls side of things this season. As in past years, the overall ranking/rating profiles will include North Dakota & Wisconsin Teams because of their interlocking schedules, which is fine because these additional games create a stronger mathematical network. There are two distinct algorithms that I will use in the Sportsoft package to compute the ratings profiles: (1) Least-Squares (LSQRank) and, (2) KRACH is based upon Bradley-Terry rankings, which is a probabilistic model for pairwise comparison. There are pros and cons to both methods. The pros when using a least-squares method is that (a) the results of the rating profile is easier to interpret for the average fan, (b) a numerical value for the uncertainty (standard error/deviation) is easily generated and reported, (c) individual and groups of games can be weighted differently, and (d) a reasonable estimate of a score differential can be predicted for future (unplayed) games based upon an earlier rating profile. The cons when using a least-squares method is that one does need actual game scores to process, which sometimes could introduce misleading data when the raw scores are not adjusted for game-time attributes such as power-play goals, empty-net goals, reduction in game length due to running time rules, etc. The pros when using the KRACH method are that one doe not need precise game scores, but only which team won, lost, or tied. The cons are that the KRACH rating profile is much harder to interpret since the rating profile numbers indicate a ratio with respect to expected outcomes (ie. if Team A were to play Team B a certain number of times, then Team A would win X games out of N). Also, there is not any good way to generate a numerical estimate of the uncertainty value in the KRACH profile. Both methods have a connectivity requirement, that is to say, that each team must be interconnected (indirectly) into the greater network by means of games played outside of their local conference or micro-network. This property allows us to generate a meaningful profile that includes all three states (MN, ND & WI) in the same rating profile.
As with all computerized numerical methods, the rating profiles become more precise as the hockey season advances toward the February playoffs and state tournaments. The first rating profile will not be able to be produced until state-wide connectivity is achieved, which is usually met by the time each team has played a minimum of 4 or 5 games each. The initial rating profiles will change incrementally week by week until each team has played 13 or so games. Towards the end of the season, game score differentials become much more predictable.
-enjoy the season, Doc
2021-22 MN Boys HS Computerized Rankings
Moderators: Mitch Hawker, east hockey, karl(east)
Re: 2021-22 MN Boys HS Computerized Rankings
As a follow-up to the initial post above, below is the latest NCAA college football rating profile that I ran the other day. Notice how a computerized ratings/rankings differ from that of the "quasi-official" college coaches polls, etc.
Two D1 games, in particular, that should be of interest for those who read this forum are:
(1) Nebraska Cornhuskers @ Wisconsin Badgers Sat Nov. 20, 2021 Vegas Lines WI -9.5 o/u = 42 points
(2) Minnesota Gophers @ Indiana Hoosiers Sat Nov. 20, 2021 Vegas Lines MN -7 o/u = 43.5 points
What these two betting lines are saying is that , the bookies are expecting:
WI to beat NE by 9.5 points and total points scored by both teams will be approximately equal to 42 , say 26 to 16
MN to beat IU by 7.0 points and total points scored by both teams will be approximately equal to 43.5 , say 25 to 18
The below ratings profile indicates a closer game between WI & NE ===> WI - 5.8
and Minnesota should beat IU by 13.6 points
enjoy - Doc
Two D1 games, in particular, that should be of interest for those who read this forum are:
(1) Nebraska Cornhuskers @ Wisconsin Badgers Sat Nov. 20, 2021 Vegas Lines WI -9.5 o/u = 42 points
(2) Minnesota Gophers @ Indiana Hoosiers Sat Nov. 20, 2021 Vegas Lines MN -7 o/u = 43.5 points
What these two betting lines are saying is that , the bookies are expecting:
WI to beat NE by 9.5 points and total points scored by both teams will be approximately equal to 42 , say 26 to 16
MN to beat IU by 7.0 points and total points scored by both teams will be approximately equal to 43.5 , say 25 to 18
The below ratings profile indicates a closer game between WI & NE ===> WI - 5.8
and Minnesota should beat IU by 13.6 points
enjoy - Doc
Code: Select all
College Football Rankings
Nov.14, 2021
by Sportsoft using LSQRank(tm) technology
Least Squares adjustment of game score differentials
All games are weighted equally
LSQRANK Score Team (WW-LL-TT)
1 SEC___________ 1000.0000 Georgia (10- 0- 0)
2 BIG10_________ 995.1166 OhioState ( 9- 1- 0)
3 SEC___________ 992.7113 Alabama ( 9- 1- 0)
4 BIG10_________ 989.3344 Michigan ( 9- 1- 0)
5 BIG12_________ 985.6880 OklahomaSt ( 9- 1- 0)
6 BIG10_________ 985.6080 Wisconsin ( 7- 3- 0)
7 INDEPENDENT___ 984.1901 NotreDame ( 9- 1- 0)
8 SEC___________ 982.9982 Mississippi ( 8- 2- 0)
9 BIG10_________ 982.7598 PennState ( 6- 4- 0)
10 ACC___________ 982.0249 Pittsburgh ( 8- 2- 0)
11 BIG12_________ 981.7960 IowaSt ( 6- 4- 0)
12 BIG10_________ 981.4856 MichiganSt ( 9- 1- 0)
13 ACC___________ 980.4272 NorthCarolinaSt ( 7- 3- 0)
14 ACC___________ 980.4249 WakeForest ( 9- 1- 0)
15 BIG12_________ 980.3360 Baylor ( 8- 2- 0)
16 BIG12_________ 980.2136 Oklahoma ( 9- 1- 0)
17 SEC___________ 980.0538 TexasA&M ( 7- 3- 0)
18 AAC___________ 979.8995 Cincinnati (10- 0- 0)
19 BIG10_________ 979.7794 Nebraska ( 3- 7- 0)
20 PAC12_________ 979.4979 Utah ( 7- 3- 0)
21 BIG10_________ 978.9491 Iowa ( 8- 2- 0)
22 BIG10_________ 978.7113 Purdue ( 6- 4- 0)
23 PAC12_________ 978.7105 Oregon ( 9- 1- 0)
24 SEC___________ 977.9384 Auburn ( 6- 4- 0)
25 MountainWest__ 977.8570 BoiseSt ( 6- 4- 0)
26 BIG12_________ 976.8328 KansasSt ( 7- 3- 0)
27 SEC___________ 976.4065 Tennessee ( 5- 5- 0)
28 ACC___________ 976.0447 Clemson ( 7- 3- 0)
29 ACC___________ 975.9379 Louisville ( 5- 5- 0)
30 INDEPENDENT___ 975.7984 BrighamYoung ( 8- 2- 0)
31 BIG10_________ 975.2400 Minnesota ( 6- 4- 0)
32 SEC___________ 975.1465 MississippiSt ( 6- 4- 0)
33 ACC___________ 974.8842 NorthCarolina ( 5- 5- 0)
34 SEC___________ 974.5653 Arkansas ( 7- 3- 0)
35 SEC___________ 974.4406 Florida ( 5- 5- 0)
36 ACC___________ 974.3097 Virginia ( 6- 4- 0)
37 BIG12_________ 974.3052 Texas ( 4- 6- 0)
38 PAC12_________ 973.7369 ArizonaSt ( 7- 3- 0)
39 PAC12_________ 973.5618 UCLA ( 6- 4- 0)
40 AAC___________ 973.5534 SMU ( 8- 2- 0)
41 SEC___________ 973.3745 Kentucky ( 7- 3- 0)
42 SEC___________ 973.2985 LSU ( 4- 6- 0)
43 ACC___________ 972.9710 MiamiFL ( 5- 5- 0)
44 CONF_USA______ 972.6215 Texas-SanAntonio (10- 0- 0)
45 SUN_BELT______ 972.4712 AppalachianSt ( 8- 2- 0)
46 PAC12_________ 972.1701 OregonSt ( 6- 4- 0)
47 INDEPENDENT___ 971.6965 Liberty ( 7- 3- 0)
48 AAC___________ 971.3925 Houston ( 9- 1- 0)
49 MissouriValley 971.0670 SouthDakotaSt ( 7- 3- 0)
50 SUN_BELT______ 970.7604 CoastalCarolina ( 8- 2- 0)
Re: 2021-22 MN Boys HS Computerized Rankings
Hi All,
Need someone to provide a doublecheck on the new list of Mn Boys HS teams.
There have been a number of new coops and some MSHSL section switch-a-roos
There are 147 teams spread amoung the 16 sections? correct?
Need someone to provide a doublecheck on the new list of Mn Boys HS teams.
There have been a number of new coops and some MSHSL section switch-a-roos
There are 147 teams spread amoung the 16 sections? correct?
Code: Select all
Farmington(MN) HS MN 1 AA MSHSL
Hastings HS MN 1 AA MSHSL
DodgeCounty HS MN 1 AA MSHSL
LakevilleNorth HS MN 1 AA MSHSL
LakevilleSouth HS MN 1 AA MSHSL
Owatonna HS MN 1 AA MSHSL
RochesterCentury HS MN 1 AA MSHSL
RochesterJohnMarshall HS MN 1 AA MSHSL
RochesterMayo HS MN 1 AA MSHSL
BloomingtonJefferson HS MN 2 AA MSHSL
Chanhassen HS MN 2 AA MSHSL
Chaska HS MN 2 AA MSHSL
EdenPrairie HS MN 2 AA MSHSL
HolyFamily HS MN 2 AA MSHSL
Minnetonka HS MN 2 AA MSHSL
PriorLake HS MN 2 AA MSHSL
Shakopee HS MN 2 AA MSHSL
AppleValley HS MN 3 AA MSHSL
Burnsville HS MN 3 AA MSHSL
Cretin-DerhamHall HS MN 3 AA MSHSL
Eagan HS MN 3 AA MSHSL
Eastview HS MN 3 AA MSHSL
ParkofCottageGrove HS MN 3 AA MSHSL
Rosemount HS MN 3 AA MSHSL
St.ThomasAcademy HS MN 3 AA MSHSL
EastRidge HS MN 4 AA MSHSL
GentryAcademy HS MN 4 AA MSHSL
Hill-Murray HS MN 4 AA MSHSL
MinnehahaAcademy HS MN 4 AA MSHSL
Roseville HS MN 4 AA MSHSL
Stillwater HS MN 4 AA MSHSL
Tartan HS MN 4 AA MSHSL
WhiteBearLake HS MN 4 AA MSHSL
Woodbury HS MN 4 AA MSHSL
Centennial(MN) HS MN 5 AA MSHSL
ChamplinPark HS MN 5 AA MSHSL
Irondale HS MN 5 AA MSHSL
MapleGrove HS MN 5 AA MSHSL
MoundsView HS MN 5 AA MSHSL
Osseo HS MN 5 AA MSHSL
Rogers HS MN 5 AA MSHSL
SpringLakePark HS MN 5 AA MSHSL
Totino-Grace HS MN 5 AA MSHSL
Armstrong/Cooper HS MN 6 AA MSHSL
Benilde-St.Margaret's HS MN 6 AA MSHSL
Blake HS MN 6 AA MSHSL
Edina HS MN 6 AA MSHSL
HolyAngels HS MN 6 AA MSHSL
Hopkins HS MN 6 AA MSHSL
St.LouisPark HS MN 6 AA MSHSL
Wayzata HS MN 6 AA MSHSL
Andover(MN) HS MN 7 AA MSHSL
Anoka HS MN 7 AA MSHSL
Blaine HS MN 7 AA MSHSL
Cloquet-Esko-Carlton HS MN 7 AA MSHSL
CoonRapids HS MN 7 AA MSHSL
DuluthEast HS MN 7 AA MSHSL
ForestLake HS MN 7 AA MSHSL
GrandRapids(MN) HS MN 7 AA MSHSL
DuluthMarshall HS MN 7 AA MSHSL
NorthernEdge HS MN 7 AA MSHSL
Bemidji HS MN 8 AA MSHSL
Brainerd HS MN 8 AA MSHSL
Buffalo(MN) HS MN 8 AA MSHSL
ElkRiver/Zimmerman HS MN 8 AA MSHSL
Moorhead HS MN 8 AA MSHSL
Roseau HS MN 8 AA MSHSL
STMA HS MN 8 AA MSHSL
Sartell-St.Stephen HS MN 8 AA MSHSL
St.Cloud HS MN 8 AA MSHSL
AlbertLea HS MN 1 A MSHSL
Austin HS MN 1 A MSHSL
Faribault HS MN 1 A MSHSL
LaCrescent-Hokah HS MN 1 A MSHSL
NewPrague HS MN 1 A MSHSL
Northfield(MN) HS MN 1 A MSHSL
RedWing HS MN 1 A MSHSL
RochesterLourdes HS MN 1 A MSHSL
Waseca HS MN 1 A MSHSL
Winona HS MN 1 A MSHSL
BloomingtonKennedy HS MN 2 A MSHSL
Breck HS MN 2 A MSHSL
Delano HS MN 2 A MSHSL
Hutchinson HS MN 2 A MSHSL
Litchfield/Dassel-Cokato HS MN 2 A MSHSL
Minneapolis HS MN 2 A MSHSL
MoundWestonka HS MN 2 A MSHSL
Orono HS MN 2 A MSHSL
ProvidenceAcademy HS MN 2 A MSHSL
SouthwestChristian/Richfield HS MN 2 A MSHSL
Waconia HS MN 2 A MSHSL
Fairmont HS MN 3 A MSHSL
Luverne HS MN 3 A MSHSL
MankatoEast/Loyola HS MN 3 A MSHSL
MankatoWest HS MN 3 A MSHSL
Marshall(MN) HS MN 3 A MSHSL
MinnesotaRiver HS MN 3 A MSHSL
NewUlm HS MN 3 A MSHSL
RedwoodValley HS MN 3 A MSHSL
Windom HS MN 3 A MSHSL
Worthington HS MN 3 A MSHSL
ChisagoLakes HS MN 4 A MSHSL
Mahtomedi HS MN 4 A MSHSL
Simley HS MN 4 A MSHSL
SouthSt.Paul HS MN 4 A MSHSL
St.PaulAcademy HS MN 4 A MSHSL
St.PaulHighlandPark HS MN 4 A MSHSL
St.PaulJohnson HS MN 4 A MSHSL
TwoRivers HS MN 4 A MSHSL
Becker/BigLake HS MN 5 A MSHSL
Cambridge-Isanti HS MN 5 A MSHSL
LittleFalls HS MN 5 A MSHSL
Monticello HS MN 5 A MSHSL
Mora/Milaca HS MN 5 A MSHSL
PineCityArea HS MN 5 A MSHSL
Princeton(MN) HS MN 5 A MSHSL
RiverLakes HS MN 5 A MSHSL
SaukRapids-Rice HS MN 5 A MSHSL
St.CloudCathedral HS MN 5 A MSHSL
Alexandria(MN) HS MN 6 A MSHSL
Breckenridge/Wahpeton HS MN 6 A MSHSL
FergusFalls HS MN 6 A MSHSL
Morris/Benson HS MN 6 A MSHSL
NorthernLakes HS MN 6 A MSHSL
PrairieCentre HS MN 6 A MSHSL
Wadena-DeerCreek HS MN 6 A MSHSL
Willmar HS MN 6 A MSHSL
DuluthDenfeld HS MN 7 A MSHSL
Ely HS MN 7 A MSHSL
Greenway HS MN 7 A MSHSL
Hermantown HS MN 7 A MSHSL
Hibbing/Chisholm HS MN 7 A MSHSL
InternationalFalls HS MN 7 A MSHSL
MooseLakeArea HS MN 7 A MSHSL
NorthShore HS MN 7 A MSHSL
Proctor HS MN 7 A MSHSL
RockRidge HS MN 7 A MSHSL
Bagley/Fosston HS MN 8 A MSHSL
Crookston HS MN 8 A MSHSL
DetroitLakes HS MN 8 A MSHSL
EastGrandForks HS MN 8 A MSHSL
KittsonCentral HS MN 8 A MSHSL
LakeoftheWoods HS MN 8 A MSHSL
ParkRapids HS MN 8 A MSHSL
RedLakeFalls HS MN 8 A MSHSL
ThiefRiverFalls HS MN 8 A MSHSL
Warroad HS MN 8 A MSHSL
-
karl(east)
- Posts: 6462
- Joined: Tue Jul 17, 2007 9:03 pm
- Contact:
Re: 2021-22 MN Boys HS Computerized Rankings
The MSHSL page is listing 149: https://www.mshsl.org/tournaments/compe ... get_id=232LSQRANK wrote: ↑Wed Nov 17, 2021 4:05 pm Hi All,
Need someone to provide a doublecheck on the new list of Mn Boys HS teams.
There have been a number of new coops and some MSHSL section switch-a-roos
There are 147 teams spread amoung the 16 sections? correct?
Code: Select all
Farmington(MN) HS MN 1 AA MSHSL Hastings HS MN 1 AA MSHSL DodgeCounty HS MN 1 AA MSHSL LakevilleNorth HS MN 1 AA MSHSL LakevilleSouth HS MN 1 AA MSHSL Owatonna HS MN 1 AA MSHSL RochesterCentury HS MN 1 AA MSHSL RochesterJohnMarshall HS MN 1 AA MSHSL RochesterMayo HS MN 1 AA MSHSL BloomingtonJefferson HS MN 2 AA MSHSL Chanhassen HS MN 2 AA MSHSL Chaska HS MN 2 AA MSHSL EdenPrairie HS MN 2 AA MSHSL HolyFamily HS MN 2 AA MSHSL Minnetonka HS MN 2 AA MSHSL PriorLake HS MN 2 AA MSHSL Shakopee HS MN 2 AA MSHSL AppleValley HS MN 3 AA MSHSL Burnsville HS MN 3 AA MSHSL Cretin-DerhamHall HS MN 3 AA MSHSL Eagan HS MN 3 AA MSHSL Eastview HS MN 3 AA MSHSL ParkofCottageGrove HS MN 3 AA MSHSL Rosemount HS MN 3 AA MSHSL St.ThomasAcademy HS MN 3 AA MSHSL EastRidge HS MN 4 AA MSHSL GentryAcademy HS MN 4 AA MSHSL Hill-Murray HS MN 4 AA MSHSL MinnehahaAcademy HS MN 4 AA MSHSL Roseville HS MN 4 AA MSHSL Stillwater HS MN 4 AA MSHSL Tartan HS MN 4 AA MSHSL WhiteBearLake HS MN 4 AA MSHSL Woodbury HS MN 4 AA MSHSL Centennial(MN) HS MN 5 AA MSHSL ChamplinPark HS MN 5 AA MSHSL Irondale HS MN 5 AA MSHSL MapleGrove HS MN 5 AA MSHSL MoundsView HS MN 5 AA MSHSL Osseo HS MN 5 AA MSHSL Rogers HS MN 5 AA MSHSL SpringLakePark HS MN 5 AA MSHSL Totino-Grace HS MN 5 AA MSHSL Armstrong/Cooper HS MN 6 AA MSHSL Benilde-St.Margaret's HS MN 6 AA MSHSL Blake HS MN 6 AA MSHSL Edina HS MN 6 AA MSHSL HolyAngels HS MN 6 AA MSHSL Hopkins HS MN 6 AA MSHSL St.LouisPark HS MN 6 AA MSHSL Wayzata HS MN 6 AA MSHSL Andover(MN) HS MN 7 AA MSHSL Anoka HS MN 7 AA MSHSL Blaine HS MN 7 AA MSHSL Cloquet-Esko-Carlton HS MN 7 AA MSHSL CoonRapids HS MN 7 AA MSHSL DuluthEast HS MN 7 AA MSHSL ForestLake HS MN 7 AA MSHSL GrandRapids(MN) HS MN 7 AA MSHSL DuluthMarshall HS MN 7 AA MSHSL NorthernEdge HS MN 7 AA MSHSL Bemidji HS MN 8 AA MSHSL Brainerd HS MN 8 AA MSHSL Buffalo(MN) HS MN 8 AA MSHSL ElkRiver/Zimmerman HS MN 8 AA MSHSL Moorhead HS MN 8 AA MSHSL Roseau HS MN 8 AA MSHSL STMA HS MN 8 AA MSHSL Sartell-St.Stephen HS MN 8 AA MSHSL St.Cloud HS MN 8 AA MSHSL AlbertLea HS MN 1 A MSHSL Austin HS MN 1 A MSHSL Faribault HS MN 1 A MSHSL LaCrescent-Hokah HS MN 1 A MSHSL NewPrague HS MN 1 A MSHSL Northfield(MN) HS MN 1 A MSHSL RedWing HS MN 1 A MSHSL RochesterLourdes HS MN 1 A MSHSL Waseca HS MN 1 A MSHSL Winona HS MN 1 A MSHSL BloomingtonKennedy HS MN 2 A MSHSL Breck HS MN 2 A MSHSL Delano HS MN 2 A MSHSL Hutchinson HS MN 2 A MSHSL Litchfield/Dassel-Cokato HS MN 2 A MSHSL Minneapolis HS MN 2 A MSHSL MoundWestonka HS MN 2 A MSHSL Orono HS MN 2 A MSHSL ProvidenceAcademy HS MN 2 A MSHSL SouthwestChristian/Richfield HS MN 2 A MSHSL Waconia HS MN 2 A MSHSL Fairmont HS MN 3 A MSHSL Luverne HS MN 3 A MSHSL MankatoEast/Loyola HS MN 3 A MSHSL MankatoWest HS MN 3 A MSHSL Marshall(MN) HS MN 3 A MSHSL MinnesotaRiver HS MN 3 A MSHSL NewUlm HS MN 3 A MSHSL RedwoodValley HS MN 3 A MSHSL Windom HS MN 3 A MSHSL Worthington HS MN 3 A MSHSL ChisagoLakes HS MN 4 A MSHSL Mahtomedi HS MN 4 A MSHSL Simley HS MN 4 A MSHSL SouthSt.Paul HS MN 4 A MSHSL St.PaulAcademy HS MN 4 A MSHSL St.PaulHighlandPark HS MN 4 A MSHSL St.PaulJohnson HS MN 4 A MSHSL TwoRivers HS MN 4 A MSHSL Becker/BigLake HS MN 5 A MSHSL Cambridge-Isanti HS MN 5 A MSHSL LittleFalls HS MN 5 A MSHSL Monticello HS MN 5 A MSHSL Mora/Milaca HS MN 5 A MSHSL PineCityArea HS MN 5 A MSHSL Princeton(MN) HS MN 5 A MSHSL RiverLakes HS MN 5 A MSHSL SaukRapids-Rice HS MN 5 A MSHSL St.CloudCathedral HS MN 5 A MSHSL Alexandria(MN) HS MN 6 A MSHSL Breckenridge/Wahpeton HS MN 6 A MSHSL FergusFalls HS MN 6 A MSHSL Morris/Benson HS MN 6 A MSHSL NorthernLakes HS MN 6 A MSHSL PrairieCentre HS MN 6 A MSHSL Wadena-DeerCreek HS MN 6 A MSHSL Willmar HS MN 6 A MSHSL DuluthDenfeld HS MN 7 A MSHSL Ely HS MN 7 A MSHSL Greenway HS MN 7 A MSHSL Hermantown HS MN 7 A MSHSL Hibbing/Chisholm HS MN 7 A MSHSL InternationalFalls HS MN 7 A MSHSL MooseLakeArea HS MN 7 A MSHSL NorthShore HS MN 7 A MSHSL Proctor HS MN 7 A MSHSL RockRidge HS MN 7 A MSHSL Bagley/Fosston HS MN 8 A MSHSL Crookston HS MN 8 A MSHSL DetroitLakes HS MN 8 A MSHSL EastGrandForks HS MN 8 A MSHSL KittsonCentral HS MN 8 A MSHSL LakeoftheWoods HS MN 8 A MSHSL ParkRapids HS MN 8 A MSHSL RedLakeFalls HS MN 8 A MSHSL ThiefRiverFalls HS MN 8 A MSHSL Warroad HS MN 8 A MSHSL
One of your missing ones is Winona Cotter (new program this year). Not seeing the other one at a quick glance...
-
O-townClown
- Posts: 4357
- Joined: Wed Oct 10, 2007 12:22 pm
- Location: Typical homeboy from the O-Town
-
karl(east)
- Posts: 6462
- Joined: Tue Jul 17, 2007 9:03 pm
- Contact:
Re: 2021-22 MN Boys HS Computerized Rankings
Did I go somewhere?!
Re: 2021-22 MN Boys HS Computerized Rankings
is there more than one Winona HS team? Got Winona in sec 1 A