Peter and I (with the help of Todd) just published a "research paper" of sorts on players who were invited and players who were not invited to tryout with the NTDP.
Our goal was to show how players who were invited as 15/16 year-old players ended up, compared to the players who were not and how they've ended up so far in their career.
Most of the data we tracked was from 1995 to 2002 drafts and unrestricted free agents. We account for the undrafted 2003 and 2004 DOB kids, too - but it is a little early on them since there hasn't been a draft for them yet.
Article Link: https://bit.ly/3v87Zye
We learned a lot in the process, we hope our readers do, too.
Enjoy,
TS
NTDP Through the Years
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Re: NTDP Through the Years
It was interesting and it also reminded me of a couple of players that I'd lost track of, but good to see they are still playing when I looked them up.
Re: NTDP Through the Years
Interesting research . 8 years is fair amount of data, so if you average things out it should tend to eliminate some quirks along the way
“The following are a few numbers of note detailing data found from the 1995 to 2002 classes of players invited and not invited to tryout for the NTDP.
TOTAL # MN Invited - 66
AVG # MN Players Invited Per Year - 8.25
TOTAL # MN not Invited (Drafted/UFA) - 59
MN NTDP Players World Juniors U20 - 18
MN Non-NTDP Players World Juniors U20 - 12”
Questions/clarifications if Peter has time ——-
How many of the invites were drafted/UfA , vs the 59 non
invite drafted/ufa number?
Even without that number, data seems to say ....
- A top kid shouldn’t worry too much if he isn’t invited, because if he keeps up his development in other ways he has almost as good a chance of being an NHL draft pick later anyway, albeit might be lower round.. ( 59 vs 66)
- but on other hand your world Junior chances might be 50% better if you got an invite ( 18 vs 12)
The above summary doesn’t distinguish between invites who said yes to an ntdp offer vs invites who said no. Don’t know if that’s possible to resummarize or not
“The following are a few numbers of note detailing data found from the 1995 to 2002 classes of players invited and not invited to tryout for the NTDP.
TOTAL # MN Invited - 66
AVG # MN Players Invited Per Year - 8.25
TOTAL # MN not Invited (Drafted/UFA) - 59
MN NTDP Players World Juniors U20 - 18
MN Non-NTDP Players World Juniors U20 - 12”
Questions/clarifications if Peter has time ——-
How many of the invites were drafted/UfA , vs the 59 non
invite drafted/ufa number?
Even without that number, data seems to say ....
- A top kid shouldn’t worry too much if he isn’t invited, because if he keeps up his development in other ways he has almost as good a chance of being an NHL draft pick later anyway, albeit might be lower round.. ( 59 vs 66)
- but on other hand your world Junior chances might be 50% better if you got an invite ( 18 vs 12)
The above summary doesn’t distinguish between invites who said yes to an ntdp offer vs invites who said no. Don’t know if that’s possible to resummarize or not