AA Rankings for 2/7/21

[karl(east)]

How quickly is this abbreviated season going? Well, many teams are hitting the halfway points in their seasons this week. We still barely seem to know many of them.

1. Maple Grove (7-0)
-Andover tested the Crimson as much as anyone has so far this year, but in the end that still isn’t saying much, as they pulled away with a 5-1 win and followed that up with yet another blitz of a decent team, this time against Blaine. To the extent that we can tell anything this year, they look like the real deal. Expect a lot of running time this week.
This week: Tues vs. Osseo, Thurs at Coon Rapids, Sat at Spring Lake Park

2. Lakeville South (8-0)
-The Cougars passed their biggest test to date with a 6-3 win over Prior Lake. Their top line is powerful, and they have good depth; on the whole they looked like a pretty complete team, and therefore get a firmer grasp on this #2 ranking. It’s not as set in stone as Maple Grove’s position is right now; they had a chance to really finish off Prior Lake and didn’t, but that’s the only real critique here. Their scheduled game with Eagan on Saturday has been postponed, leaving them with just decent Burnsville this week.
This week: Thurs at Burnsville

3. Eden Prairie (6-1)
-With Jackson Blake back in the fold, the Eagles have achieved a new level of dynamism, and at times their top line looks like it can score at will. Some lackadaisical defense, though, is a source of concern. A potential track meet with Wayzata on Saturday (when was the last time anyone said that?) highlights the week ahead.
This week: Thurs vs. St. Michael-Albertville, Sat at #8 Wayzata

4. Grand Rapids (6-0)
-The Thunderhawks again had a scheduled contest with Denfeld delayed, but showed no rust in a solid win over Roseau; they continue to do what they need to do here. Call them the anti-Eden Prairie: they have allowed a grand total of three goals all season. They’ll now face a real test next in Hermantown on Thursday, and they’ll meet a passable Brainerd team, too.
This week: Tues vs. Brainerd, Sat at Hermantown

5. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (8-0)
-The Red Knights had no challenge continuing their smooth start. The first meeting with St. Louis Park wasn’t much of a thrill, so I don’t exactly expect one this time; things will start to liven up a bit after that.
This week: Tues at Chanhassen, Sat at St. Louis Park

6. St. Thomas Academy (7-1)
-The Cadets dropped their first game of the season against Edina, but responded with an overtime takedown of Hill-Murray to restore some order. Like Eden Prairie, they seem to live a bit dangerously at times, but no one can deny the talent here. We’ll see if they can match their romp over Holy Family from the first meeting.
This week: Sat vs. Holy Family

7. Hill-Murray (5-2)
-The Pioneers collected a second win over Mahtomedi before falling to St. Thomas in an offensive affair that likely was never the style of game they were looking for. While plenty dangerous, they are showing they have some work to do to get back to the level they were at late last season. The Spuds will be their next test of any note.
This week: Tues at Tartan, Sat vs. Moorhead

8. Wayzata (5-2)
-The Trojans romped against the newer Lake Conference arrivals this past week, showing some real offensive firepower. Now they go right back into the jaws of the Lake, including the first of three meetings with Edina that will prove pivotal to their eventual seed and a chance to do better in a second meeting with Eden Prairie.
This week: Thurs at #14 Edina, Sat vs. #3 Eden Prairie

9. Prior Lake (6-1-1)
-The Lakers looked a step behind Lakeville South for long stretches on Saturday, and though they found their stride in the game’s later stages, the damage was done. We’ll get a rematch to get a better sense of which version was the real Lakers. For now, the result basically matched our priors here, and they now roll back into the more beatable portions of the South Suburban.
This week: Tues vs. Apple Valley, Sat at Lakeville North

10. Cretin-Derham Hall (7-1)
-It’s just one loss, so I don’t want to overreact, but with their schedule, it does say a lot; this wasn’t some 40-save goalie-stolen game, either, and a three-goal effort against Roseville as a follow-up didn’t inspire confidence, either. All they can do is get back to winning comfortably. I’m curious to see what they do with a respectable Forest Lake team.
This week: Tues at Forest Lake, Thurs at Woodbury, Sat vs. Mounds View

11. Andover (7-1)
-The Huskies continue to solidify a spot in the top 15. The loss to Maple Grove was reasonably competitive, and they rebounded with a solid showing over Centennial to prove they are, at this point, the second-best team in the Northwest Suburban bubble. Blaine is their only opponent this week.
This week: Sat at Blaine

12. Rosemount (5-1-1)
-This feels tenuous after the Irish needed overtime to beat Lakeville North, but they continue to beat the teams they should beat. A second meeting with Burnsville, who is one of the more respectable South Suburban teams, is the highlight of the coming week.
This week: Thurs at Eastview, Sat vs. Burnsville

13. Minnetonka (4-3)
-The Skippers showed flashes against Eden Prairie; they can get up and down the ice and the future is bright, but the Lake Conference is unforgiving for teams that are building up with youth, and the Eagles gashed them repeatedly. The shutout win over Edina is doing a lot of work for them in the rankings right now, so we’ll see if they can repeat that success in the second meeting.
This week: Thurs vs. Duluth East, Sat vs. #14 Edina

14. Edina (4-3-1)
-A win over St. Thomas gets the Hornets moving in the right direction again. Despite the talent here, the offense has yet to really take off; we’ll see what they can muster against two serious conference rivals who can put some points on the board. They can clearly play with anyone, but can they find some consistency?
This week: Thurs vs. #8 Wayzata, Sat at #13 Minnetonka

15. Stillwater (6-1)
-The Ponies galloped up the rankings with an upset win over Cretin, and while their narrow scores with the East Ridges and Woodburys of the world don’t scream top 15, there is no other easy choice at the moment, and we might as well reward a big win. On paper they should add to the W column this week.
This week: Thurs vs. Irondale, Sat vs. Park (Cottage Grove)

The Next Ten

Holy Family (4-2)
-A convincing win over Blake has the Fire moving in a positive direction. They can keep that going with a win against St. Michael-Albertville, who has made cameos in the back section of the rankings, and then they get a second chance to prove they can be competitive against St. Thomas after a rough first outing.

Blake (3-3)
-It was not a pretty week for the Bears, who lost twin 5-1 games to Eden Prairie and Holy Family. The Eden Prairie loss wouldn’t have affected their standing much, but the loss to the Fire hurts. They’re now into a run of six straight private school opponents, with Gentry Academy posing an intriguing test this coming week.

St. Louis Park (6-1-1)
-It’s not always pretty, with overtime necessary against Chaska, but other than the clunker against Benilde, this team is off to a great start. They get a second crack at the Red Knights this week.

Roseau (5-2)
-Grand Rapids put away the Rams in a 5-1 game, though they did have a few Covid-caused absences that hurt the roster some. This week they’ve got their usual section rival, Moorhead, in a game that will tell us a lot about the state of the 8AA race, and visit Class A power East Grand Forks as well.

Hastings (4-3)
-The Raiders didn’t break much of a sweat in dispatching of South St. Paul and St. Paul Highland Park, and there’s little reason to expect things to be all that different against Sibley and Simley this coming week.

Centennial (4-2-1)
-The Cougars are winless in their last three and are moving in the wrong direction after falling to Andover. This week’s contest with Blaine will be a big one for section positioning.

Moorhead (3-3-1)
-The young Spuds took down a quality Class A team in East Grand Forks and beat St. Cloud as well, which will help their 8AA positioning. The St. Michael-Albertville loss is looking more and more like a blemish, but otherwise they’re playing some respectable, if low-scoring, hockey. They jump right in the fire this week with games against Roseau and Hill-Murray.

Rogers (6-1)
-Overtime against Osseo is not exactly an ideal outcome for this group, so there’s some backsliding here, but 6-1 is 6-1, and the Blaine win looks better now that the Bengals are proving themselves capable. They get a test with Totino on Tuesday, followed by Anoka and Elk River.

Elk River (5-3)
-Speaking of Elk River, the Elks have taken their lumps against the top teams in the Northwest Suburban, but they do have a strong win over a respectable Blaine team and are generally moving in the right direction. They lead off a big 7AA clump on the bubble of the bubble here.

Duluth East (4-1-1)
-The Hounds don’t have any real impressive results yet, but they’re beating the teams they should beat and plugging along. It’ll be reality check time this coming week as they meet Hermantown and Minnetonka.

It’s a section overview week, so here we go on our tour.

1AA
2 Lakeville South
20 Hastings
Owatonna
Lakeville North
-Well, number one is clear enough, and Hastings hasn’t done anything to make me doubt their #2 status. Down south, Owatonna is off to a strong start and has beaten all of the Rochesters, two of them decisively. They also lost to Mankato East, which gives us something of a transitive property chain of logic to show where they stand against better competition. (The answer: not great.) However, past seeding results suggest that could get them the 3-seed or perhaps even a 2-seed if Hastings loses enough down the stretch. With North looking fairly average, that may well be in order.

2AA
3 Eden Prairie
9 Prior Lake
13 Minnetonka
16 Holy Family
-By winning the first of the two battles with Minnetonka, Eden Prairie now sits pretty and can probably sew up the top seed with a second win in that rivalry. A split opens the door for Prior Lake, but the Lakers would need to take care of business and hope for a few more Lake losses for Eden Prairie. Holy Family upped its odds at a home game with the win over Blake, and a schedule that should let them collect some wins down the stretch should give them decent position.

3AA
6 St. Thomas Academy
12 Rosemount
Burnsville
Eastview
-The top three look pretty unlikely to change here. After that, it gets pretty ugly. I’m sticking with Eastview since they have looked mildly more competent, but if they don’t win a few more games down the stretch, someone like Jefferson or Park could swoop in if they can muster a moderately better record.

4AA
7 Hill-Murray
15 Stillwater
White Bear Lake
Mounds View
-Stillwater’s win over Cretin likely leaves Hill hearing some hoofs behind them, and it also gives the Ponies a case to surge through the field in this section. It’s a mess after that, but White Bear’s only section loss is to Stillwater; Mounds View is next, though since they’re saddled with a loss to East Ridge, they still have work to do rein in a top four seed. There will be plenty of jockeying down the stretch here, supplying me with ample opportunities for additional horse puns.

5AA
1 Maple Grove
21 Centennial
Blaine
Totino-Grace
-At this point, so much for that preseason projection that this section might be on the rise. The Crimson are all alone at the top, and Centennial is defaulting into the 2-spot. Blaine’s wins over Totino and Champlin shows the Bengals aren’t dead yet, so they’ve climbed up to the 3-spot, and for now Totino slots in at four.

6AA
5 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
8 Wayzata
10 Cretin-Derham Hall
14 Edina
17 Blake
18 St. Louis Park
-Benilde, thanks to a strong start and Cretin’s loss, is looking better and better for the top seed here, though they will play the two Lake teams down the stretch and will have things to prove there. The first of the three Wayzata-Edina meetings is this coming week. Aside from the Cretin schedule, the other major factor in seeding here is Blake: recent results don’t suggest they’re on the level of some of the top teams, but they have beaten Wayzata, and that could yet muddy things up; there’s also the matter of that Edina-St. Louis Park tie. For now, though, we’ll play it straight in the projected seeding.

7AA
4 Grand Rapids
25 Duluth East
--
12 Andover
24 Elk River
-The news that this section will split into north and south brackets for sections both removes nearly all of the drama from this and is also fairly irrelevant at this point, since these would seem to be the likely semifinal matchups anyway, barring upsets. Rapids’ win over East clearly shows the Thunderhawks are ahead of the Hounds, while Andover is showing it won’t go softly. The only things really in question may be the home team in a likely Elk River-Forest Lake quarterfinal and the pecking order for home ice in the section final.

8AA
19 Roseau
23 Rogers
St. Michael-Albertville
22 Moorhead
-This section is not exactly looking impressive right now. The Rams are on top until a section opponent beats them, while Rogers plays no one in the section and can probably lock in a pretty high seed by continuing to build a strong overall record. STMA’s record, on the other hand, is not pretty, but the Knights have that Moorhead win; those two will pay again near the end.

[Brodziak Fan Club]

Great work as always, Karl. If there's a message board category for the Pulitzer Prize, I suggest submitting your Section 4AA horse references.

[O-townClown]

It's an oddity that Edina had weeks where they beat Eden Prairie and St. Thomas and iirc dropped in your ranking both times.

[karl(east)]

It's an oddity that Edina had weeks where they beat Eden Prairie and St. Thomas and iirc dropped in your ranking both times.

They weren't in the top 15 last week, so you recall incorrectly.

[O-townClown]

They weren't in the top 15 last week, so you recall incorrectly.

Thanks. Season so short we may not get a real good PS2 version.

My hunch is there is a big advantage in rankings for those teams that play a weaker schedule. I doubt Lakeville South would have the same record if they played the schedule Hill-Murray, Edina, or Eden Prairie have thus far. I suspect same with Benilde too.

2021 season is a sprint for sure. Those are fun too.

[thefatcat]

They weren't in the top 15 last week, so you recall incorrectly.

Thanks. Season so short we may not get a real good PS2 version.

My hunch is there is a big advantage in rankings for those teams that play a weaker schedule. I doubt Lakeville South would have the same record if they played the schedule Hill-Murray, Edina, or Eden Prairie have thus far. I suspect same with Benilde too.

2021 season is a sprint for sure. Those are fun too.

Well...BSM has Hill, Edina, STA and EP on their schedule yet...so we're going to find out. I don't recall exactly but of the 7 games that were nixed to get down to 18 they had some pretty good games in that bunch too.

[O-townClown]

Well...BSM has Hill, Edina, STA and EP on their schedule yet...so we're going to find out.

Yes, Benilde will play the teams Edina has already played 4 times. Schedules are night and day. Benilde hasn't played anyone in Karl's Top 15 and Edina has beaten two of the Top 6. Lakeville South has beaten #9 Prior Lake & #12 Rosemount, and those teams haven't faced tough competition either.

Covid has resulted in even greater disparity in schedule strength. Rankings from Karl and others are imo not recognizing that.

10 of his Top 18 in the two SW Metro sections. Sheesh those are tough roads.

[elliott70]

QRF Top 30 as of 2-8-21
1 Maple Grove (7-0) 88.3
2 Lakeville South (8-0) 85.6
3 Grand Rapids (6-0) 84.4
4 Cretin-Derham Hall (7-1) 78.4
5 Stillwater Area (6-1) 78.0
6 Benilde-St. Margaret's (8-0) 76.8
7 Eden Prairie (6-1) 74.0
8 Andover (7-1) 72.8
9 Prior Lake (6-1-1) 68.5
10 Rosemount (6-1-1) 67.4
11 Rogers (6-1) 64.8
12 St. Thomas Academy (7-1) 64.0
13 Owatonna (5-1) 63.6
T-14 Wayzata (5-2) 60.8
T-14 Hill-Murray (5-2) 60.8
16 St. Louis Park (6-1-1) 60.7
17 White Bear Lake (6-2) 60.5
18 Northfield (5-1-1) 57.1
19 Forest Lake (6-2) 56.1
20 Holy Family Catholic (4-2) 53.8
21 Edina (4-3-1) 52.4
22 Duluth East (4-1-1) 51.8
23 Mounds View (4-3-1) 50.8
24 Minnetonka (4-3) 50.2
25 Centennial (4-2-1) 49.7
26 Elk River/Zimmerman (5-3) 48.5
27 Blaine (4-3) 47.3
28 Lakeville North (4-4) 46.6
29 Blake (3-3) 46.4
30 Shakopee (4-3-1) 46.2

[InThePipes]

Well...BSM has Hill, Edina, STA and EP on their schedule yet...so we're going to find out.

Yes, Benilde will play the teams Edina has already played 4 times. Schedules are night and day. Benilde hasn't played anyone in Karl's Top 15 and Edina has beaten two of the Top 6. Lakeville South has beaten #9 Prior Lake & #12 Rosemount, and those teams haven't faced tough competition either.

Covid has resulted in even greater disparity in schedule strength. Rankings from Karl and others are imo not recognizing that.

10 of his Top 18 in the two SW Metro sections. Sheesh those are tough roads.

Difficult year to do these ranking with limited access to the "transitive property"

[karl(east)]

Well...BSM has Hill, Edina, STA and EP on their schedule yet...so we're going to find out.

Yes, Benilde will play the teams Edina has already played 4 times. Schedules are night and day. Benilde hasn't played anyone in Karl's Top 15 and Edina has beaten two of the Top 6. Lakeville South has beaten #9 Prior Lake & #12 Rosemount, and those teams haven't faced tough competition either.

Covid has resulted in even greater disparity in schedule strength. Rankings from Karl and others are imo not recognizing that.

10 of his Top 18 in the two SW Metro sections. Sheesh those are tough roads.

The Lake teams definitely deserve some bumps based on their schedule--and they're getting them. There's a reason Tonka and Edina are 10+ spots ahead of any other team that has 3+ losses. Wayzata and Hill (who has played a very tough schedule) are the only other 2-loss teams in the top 15. One-loss EP is ahead of two undefeated teams, including one (GR) whose best win is more impressive than EP's best win. On the flip side, Benilde's lack of top 15 opponents is the reason why they haven't gone higher than #5 yet (whereas some others have done that). There's also a reason Cretin dropped seven spots in a week where they lost, while Lake teams might drop three for a similar result. Prior Lake dropped 5 spots for a tie to a now-ranked a couple weeks ago; Edina dropped three for the St. Louis Park tie. Roseau dropped from 9th to out of the top 15 for a loss to a good Class A team 2 weeks ago.

That said...right now, Edina is 1-2-1 outside of the conference (including two very good opponents and one 15-20 one that I'm iffy on), EP is 2-0 with both wins coming against 15-20-ranked teams, Wayzata is 0-1 with a loss to a 15-20 team, and Tonka is 1-0 with a win over a not very good Jefferson team. I don't doubt it is the best conference in the state--it is by a mile--but the evidence does not suggest it's one some totally different plane at the moment.

The real trouble this year will be figuring out how to rank the 3 closed loop sections relative to the Lake and the ones we can tie into the Lake through enough crossover games (Hill, Benilde, STA, Rapids, etc.). There's the eye test, of course. MG and LS seem to be passing it so far; Cretin not so much. But there are obvious limitations to that method. It comes down to some combination of past performance and evaluation of overall talent, and I'm basically guessing where to slot them in relative to the others. It also leads me to ask the question I've asked of some Lake teams that have been slaughtered all their competition in the past...what happens when Maple Grove gets to state and faces a battle-tested team in sections?

And FYI I believe Lee has said there will be no PageStat this year...just too hard to run it when there are zero connections between some of the teams involved.

[east hockey]

Well...BSM has Hill, Edina, STA and EP on their schedule yet...so we're going to find out.

Yes, Benilde will play the teams Edina has already played 4 times. Schedules are night and day. Benilde hasn't played anyone in Karl's Top 15 and Edina has beaten two of the Top 6. Lakeville South has beaten #9 Prior Lake & #12 Rosemount, and those teams haven't faced tough competition either.

Covid has resulted in even greater disparity in schedule strength. Rankings from Karl and others are imo not recognizing that.

10 of his Top 18 in the two SW Metro sections. Sheesh those are tough roads.

And FYI I believe Lee has said there will be no PageStat this year...just too hard to run it when there are zero connections between some of the teams involved.

I'll be making a post about that tomorrow. I've been taking a look at the numbers along the lines of inter-section vs in-section games.

Lee

[O-townClown]

The Lake teams definitely deserve some bumps based on their schedule--and they're getting them. There's a reason Tonka and Edina are 10+ spots ahead of any other team that has 3+ losses.

Always appreciate your thoughts. While they are getting a bump for a tough schedule, my contention is that Lakeville South, Prior Lake, Rosemount are getting a free pass and your spread between teams like Benilde or Cretin and Edina-Wayzata-Minnetonka will prove to be too wide.

Some games have a weird score that would normally be diluted with a full schedule. Blake 5-1 over Wayzata & Minnetonka 4-0 over Edina are examples. Probably Hill-Murray 7-0 over Holy Family too. I'm not reading too much into those results considering how the game play shook out.

Time will tell. I'll be first to admit I was dead wrong about Lakeville South if they contend for a state title.

[InThePipes]

The Lake teams definitely deserve some bumps based on their schedule--and they're getting them. There's a reason Tonka and Edina are 10+ spots ahead of any other team that has 3+ losses.

Time will tell. I'll be first to admit I was dead wrong about Lakeville South if they contend for a state title.

I tend to agree with you, but in defense of LVS their BTAA teams have reached the state tournament the past 2 years, they have a couple of very good Sr, they are well coached and appear to play a disciplined style.

[O-townClown]

I tend to agree with you, but in defense of LVS their BTAA teams have reached the state tournament the past 2 years, they have a couple of very good Sr, they are well coached and appear to play a disciplined style.

They likely enter the state tournament undefeated, quite possibly without having even one close game. It'll be a great storyline.

[InThePipes]

I tend to agree with you, but in defense of LVS their BTAA teams have reached the state tournament the past 2 years, they have a couple of very good Sr, they are well coached and appear to play a disciplined style.

They likely enter the state tournament undefeated, quite possibly without having even one close game. It'll be a great storyline.

Could be, Rosemount and PL rematches are probably the only competitive games remaining