covid and MH

[Puckguy19]

I hope I am wrong on this, but I do not see how the pause ends on 12/18.

Nor do I. I expect another case surge after Thanksgiving with deaths surging (again) just before Christmas. It looks bleak.

Lee

If it is true that we're going to start seeing a vaccine on December 11 (what the CDC stated this week), that means health care workers will begin to receive it around that time.

On the one hand, I don't think it'll be hard for the Governor to extend the current sports shutdown to the end of the year. I do fear that's coming. On the other hand, that extension of time will allow the aforementioned health care workers to receive the vaccine and ensure staffing at hospitals for those that need treatment. Combine that with vaccinations for the general population starting in January, and I think we begin to see the end of this. A season from January 1 - March 20 isn't the greatest, but that's the typical length of some spring seasons for sports, and it's better than nothing.

Vaccine will not be available to the general public in January. Maybe, think March/April. Do you realize the logistics to get it to health care workers? Then you have the question of whether people will get the vaccine, even if available. A lot of questions yet to be answered.

[Wise Old Man]

WOM... I actually doubt that we’re too far apart in our thinking regarding the actual virus, but I we’ll have to agree to disagree on the guidance/actions taken by our State government. You never acknowledge the capacity issue?

I did read the articles that you posted and most of them specifically point to off-ice factors... not on-ice. I agree with that. And, the “experts” include a county commissioner, state level politicians and some government health officials (from Vermont and Ontario???). Umm... you might want to upgrade your expert pool. Blindly assuming that actions taken by politicians must be “correct” because they’re public servants is a very naive view and weak argument. No matter what side of the isle you’re on.

At the end of the day, the vaccine is what we need to pull us out of this pandemic. Everything else is just there to slow things down. We’re getting close!

Spam... What was the "capacity" issue again? I went back and re-read and couldn't figure that one out. As for your points on the articles that many of the comments are from various elected officials vs actual "health experts"; my point was that those elected officials are making their decisions to pause hockey based on the medical/science advice by their respective health experts that advise them. Meaning, those health experts are seeing transmission and spread through at the rink contact/exposure which was determined through contact tracing. So, my argument is neither naïve or weak . And yes, from Vermont and Ontario. The point being that those hockey rich areas are seeing the same challenges and making the same decisions our state is. Also, Anchorage, AK just shut down all sports from Dec.1 thru Dec. 31st.

[Wise Old Man]

Wise

Many points we find ourselves in agreement again , and always respect your opinions where different

Lots kids also lost a lot of ice time April-June ( and now ) , with private clinic operators/leagues also , in addition to MH Elite program and AAA

I agree with you , again partially based on the West Metro common sense scientific principle, that young player to player on bench and on ice transmission can and has occurred, just don’t think it’s enough or with such severe result to justify shutdown , in light of the significant negative effects of shutdown on the kids IMHO . I do agree with MH efforts to redouble protocol enforcement , incl make sure all locker rooms doors are locked .

We just get tired of Gov , MDH talking about youth sports , bars , restaurants, gyms for 90% of press conference or print media , then maybe one question or sentence on LTC . And no discussion of discretionary trips to MOA or freeway protests , where there amazingly never seems to be a single outbreak of Covid worth discussing at any of them

If they focused on LTC some more, and we saw some success , maybe we could all buy in more to societal shutdowns . But if LTC keep dying at 50+ a day anyway , it makes it harder.

Westy...I agree with your points about Walz not spending more time on the LTC facilities during the pressers. Of course, part of the responsibility on that lies with the reporters for not pressing him on it. As you usual, when we drill down on it more closely, you and I agree on this more than we don't.

[Wise Old Man]

JG/WOM

- We had a 3 + month pause already , now 1 month pause , almost guaranteed to be a following month pause , that’s 5 months out of 10 months from mid March to mid January , and possibility more after that

I guess what upsets a lot of people is we don’t seem to see a level of public discussion in depth at the governor press conference or anywhere else about what definitive 10 points steps they are taking to prevent more nursing home deaths, where 70% of the daily deaths are actually occurring.

I have offered a few definitive steps earlier in this thread and a few more below that I am highly confident from a common sense viewpoint would be effective . Are these already in place ? Being considered ? If not , what other steps, since we are failing right now.

—— test all employees every day, those are top priority for labs
—— large 100% monthly bonus for a full month of negative test
——bring in Nat guard to supplement , under orders not to leave their away from home quarters after their shift
——test any potential new resident for 14 days before admitting
——test any visitor with rapid test
——Covid positive resident should live in separate LTC facility , staff should not comingle between
——etc

Westy... I agree completely with your points about needing more detail on how they’re choosing to handle LTC facilities. And, your ideas to improve that situation are really good.

However, I partially disagree regarding your point about the first 3 months kids supposedly missed. High school tourney had finished and all that was left for youth were the state tournaments. And, although yes there are a percentage of kids that participate in off-season AAA hockey, the vast majority do not. Therefore, I don’t think we can really count those first three months. As I stated previously, I agree it’s likely to go longer than Dec. 19. Probably thru Jan. 1 and possibly even a couple weeks further. Still, almost every U.S. hockey playing state, along with almost all of Canadian hockey — including Major Junior — are paused or drastically reduced.

This brings me to spam’s point/pushback on player to player spread. Spam...first, I agree there hasn’t been any type of “official”, double-blind study on player to player spread at the rink. However, if you haven’t already, you really need to read all of the articles I linked. At least three other states have paused youth and high school hockey for at least two weeks, along with almost every province in Canada. That’s an awful lot of health experts saying that player to player transmission is significant.

Spam...so you’re telling me ALL of those health experts that determined that player to player spread IS a significant issue are wrong? You do realize that contact tracing can be very effective in determining where and from who someone likely caught it from, right? But that’s only IF parents are actually doing the right things and responding to contact tracers. One of the articles about Massachusetts’ pause specifically mentioned how often the various associations and teams wouldn’t provide required information to allow for quality contact tracing to the state when requested. Meaning, a lot of parents are either not answering the phone when called by contact tracers, or parents aren’t quarantining their players when they meet the definition of close contact with someone who had tested positive, or got their player tested if they were maybe only mildly symptomatic as required.

As jg stated, the MDH has said there have been more Covid related outbreaks with hockey than any other sport. Please explain to us what their motivations would be for “making that up” or even just “fudging the numbers” a bit. These are life-long public servants. Their motivation is completely about maximizing public safety. That’s why they are in those positions. And, I suspect many either have kids in sports or, did at one point so, they understand the physical and mental health benefits of being able to participate.

Per registered athlete, youth hockey had the least of the major sports in Minnesota. And don’t say it was because they weren’t in season.

HockeyGuy...just curious, where did you find your infections per sport from? Were you using what the numbers of outbreaks for each sport are from the MDH? If so, the MDH has attributed just 15 outbreaks (3 or more cases each) to soccer. With approximately 48,000 registered players (and 45 total individual cases) that's one case for every 1,066 players. Whereas hockey had 57,648 players in 2019-20 and, has had 46 outbreaks (138 total cases) attributed to it. which works out to 1 case for every 417 players. Soooooo....I don't think your numbers work the way you think they might. For some more detailed perspective on why the state is pausing sports -- and this is for everyone involved here -- here's the link to a "Bring Me the News" article from Nov. 19th...

https://bringmethenews.com/minnesota-ne ... aw-numbers

For those that don't want to link, here are the important parts...

But the inclusion of youth sports in the executive order sparked questions from the media and those involved in it, given that state data shows those outbreaks have led to 780 cases of COVID-19 out of almost 250,000 cases statewide.
When that was put to Walz and Health Commissioner Jan Malcolm, they explained that those 780 cases refer to "primary" infections, where an infection can be attributed to a specific setting. What it doesn't take into account are the "second and third-effect infections" that occur when someone – for example in youth sports – gives the virus to somebody else, which can happen unknowingly if the student is asymptomatic.

By the time it reaches the fourth-generation of transmission, Walz noted, the multiplication of cases has the potential to be as high as 70 from that single case given the exponential spread of the virus in Minnesota right now, meaning there's the potential for cases linked to youth sports to be responsible for thousands, or even tens of thousands of COVID-19 cases moving forward. The problem for state health officials is that it's becoming increasingly difficult to track where everyone is getting the virus due to the uncontrolled spread of "community transmission" – where a person's diagnosis can't be attributed to a single source of infection. As a result, Malcolm said that the numbers MDH has put out regarding youth sports as well as from other settings including bars and restaurants, and weddings, are likely a "very significant undercount."

I'm honestly not trying to do an "I told you so" to anyone but, I've been saying for quite awhile that because of the amount of asymptomatic spread and, the lack of overall testing to catch that asymptomatic spread, we were significantly undercounting the amount of sports related spread (spread associated directly with activity on the ice, field, or court). I realize people don't want to believe it but, the MDH is using very scientific modeling to calculate what they believe the actual spread likely is. Which, in turn, is what supports the decisions they make. And please, don't come back at me with, "the models have been off ever since the start of this" because that's simply not the case. At least not since June as the various modeling has actually been fairly accurate. In fact, if it has been off, they have generally under-predicted total cases, hospitalizations, and deaths since then.

Again I'll state that these are public service professionals that, I guarantee don't want to have to pause sports. However, their number one priority is maximizing public safety and minimizing illness and death. Especially in a pandemic. I also guarantee that they see the data regarding the increases in mental health issues, not just for kids but, for all ages. So, if you don't think that these life-long public health experts are making what they believe are the absolute best decisions possible based on the data available, then I'd appreciate it if someone would provide some sort of legitimate, science based proof to support that argument. To be clear, I honestly believe all of you that disagree with the pause are doing so with the best of intentions and, my guess is if I sat down and bought any of you a cold beverage, we would likely have far more in common than not.

Our family just had it's first "real" Covid experience as my wife's uncle just passed away today from Covid. He lived in Wisconsin and was 80 years old so, he was obviously at a higher risk of a bad outcome. We were getting thrice daily updates on his condition and I promise you it's not something anyone wants to go thru. Both from his perspective and from his family's perspective. Stay safe everyone. There is a light at the end of the tunnel.

[elliott70]

Sorry for your loss.

[WestMetro]

I’ll second that Wise!

[Wise Old Man]

I’ll second that Wise!

Much appreciated Elliot and Westy. Wife is pretty bummed as her dad passed away when she was 13 and this particular uncle only lived a mile away and became the de facto dad for her and her 4 siblings.

[spamtownusa]

WOM - sorry for your loss... too many have had to (and continue to have to) deal with these tragic losses.

Gov. Tim Walz will join long-term care providers Friday afternoon to highlight efforts to keep long-term care residents safe.

The live video will be streamed here at 2 p.m.

Walz will join Minnesota Department of Health Commissioner Jan Malcolm, Adjutant General of the Minnesota National Guard Major General Shawn Manke and long-term care providers to give an update on COVID-19 community transmission.

Roughly 2,500 of the more than 3,700 deaths in the state, or about 2/3, have been residents of long-term care facilities. About 12,000 of Minnesota's more than 325,000 COVID-19 cases, less than 4%, have been confirmed in residents of long-term care facilities.

It will be good to hear what more is being done to protect this very vulnerable group. The highlighted data is horrific.

[WestMetro]

See my LTC suggestion list on p. 11 of this thread , and also in much earlier posts also

Looks like Gov Walz must be reading this Hockey Forum finally!
He has assigned Nat Guard to help in LTC


https://twitter.com/thauserkstp/status/ ... 36802?s=21

[Wise Old Man]

See my LTC suggestion list on p. 11 of this thread , and also in much earlier posts also

Looks like Gov Walz must be reading this Hockey Forum finally!
He has assigned Nat Guard to help in LTC


https://twitter.com/thauserkstp/status/ ... 36802?s=21

Westy...that is good news. Hopefully, that makes a difference. Back to hockey and Covid. I saw this article this evening from the Washington Post. More discussion on the premise that, of all of the sports, hockey is the most susceptible to significant Covid infections/outbreaks at the rink. Here's the link...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2 ... outbreaks/

Here are a couple of the more interesting pieces...

"Massachusetts logged more than 100 youth hockey cases in a few weeks. In Maine, an asymptomatic referee exposed up to 400 people in two days. In Bellemore’s home state of New Hampshire, state officials shut down youth hockey for two weeks to get cases under control and mandated testing for all 20,000 players — a directive that resulted in long lines and other chaos at testing centers statewide."

"Ice hockey is an anomaly. Scientists are studying hockey-related outbreaks hoping to find clues about the ideal conditions in which the coronavirus thrives — and how to stop it. Experts speculate that ice rinks may trap the virus around head level in a rink that, by design, restricts airflow, temperature and humidity."

"One critical way hockey differs from other contact team sports is how players do line changes — substitutions of groups of players — and are expected to sprint for nearly the whole time they are on the ice. Experts say it probably leads to heavier breathing, resulting in more particles being exhaled and inhaled."

Jose-Luis Jimenez, an air engineer at the University of Colorado, speculated that the spaces occupied by rinks keep the virus suspended, perhaps six to nine feet, just above the ice. Similar outbreaks have been documented in other chilly venues — meat processing factories and at a curling match earlier in the pandemic. “I suspect the air is stratified,” he said. “Much like in a cold winter night, you have these inversions where the cold air with the virus which is heavier stays closer to the ground. That gives players many more chances to breathe it in.”

Joseph Allen, a researcher at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, said he believes it was a mistake for school sports to shut down, because kids need physical activity, and some for-profit businesses filling the gaps may be operating in a way where “controls may not be as stringent.” “Not having sports in schools ultimately leads to wider contact networks for many kids,” he explained.

A PolicyLab blog post last month recommended that if youth sports leagues want to preserve any opportunity to keep playing, they need to enact mandates that strictly curtail all off-field interaction. Even then, “the potential for on-field spread may be too overwhelming to continue safely with team competition during periods of widespread community transmission, and may need to be sacrificed to preserve in-school learning options, at least until early spring or transmission rates decrease substantially.”

Massachusetts Hockey President Bob Joyce said families who didn’t like those new rules took their children to play in neighboring states with fewer restrictions. And sometimes those players played on multiple teams or had siblings who did and went to school, creating very large social networks. “It was a wake-up call,” Joyce said. He said state officials estimated that those 108 initial hockey cases amounted to 3,000 to 4,000 others potentially exposed.

In an October report, the CDC detailed a large outbreak in Florida among amateur adult hockey players on two teams that played each other but had no other contact. Investigators speculated that the indoor space and close contact increased the infection risk. They also pointed out that ice hockey “involves vigorous physical exertion accompanied by deep, heavy respiration, and during the game, players frequently move from the ice surface to the bench while still breathing heavily.”

Rubin, who is a pediatrician in addition to his public policy research job, said he worries those on the ice may be inhaling larger doses of the virus due to these environmental conditions, making it more likely they will become infected. “It’s very hard to sort out, but you wonder if increased inoculum of the virus is an extra factor,” he said.

Demming expressed similar thoughts: “It could be infection rates are common across sports, but in a sport like hockey where you are trapping more virus in the breathable air it could result in more severe infections that end up being symptomatic.”

In Vermont, an outbreak at a single ice rink ripped through the center of the state, affecting at least 20 towns in at least four counties, and seeding other outbreaks at several schools. By Oct. 30, when Vermont Gov. Phil Scott (R) detailed the outbreak at a press briefing, 473 contacts had been associated with it.

I'm interested to hear what a number of you think about what's presented. Unfortunately, things aren't improving too much as we had 5,300 plus on Friday. I will be very surprised if Walz doesn't extend the current pause through Jan. 1st, and maybe even longer. Which sucks for our kids. I hope to God the weather cools off enough to get my backyard rink ready because that might be the only way my two kids get to actually skate for two months...

[jg2112]

In all seriousness, maybe workers in youth hockey rinks and basketball arenas should be considered essential personnel entitled to early access to the vaccine, if supplies exist?

Most kids are asymptomatic. Their parents can stay home. But the referees, rink workers, etc. are absolutely needed for the games to occur this winter.

[elliott70]

In Minnesota Hockey District 16 we have had 12 cases among coaches and players from about 2500 players and coaches.
None of the case have been traced to hockey/arena activity.

And no required hospitalizations.

[diablo26]

https://theconversation.com/few-us-stud ... -19-143883

HS is suppose to get our kids ready for college. The fact, most kids in Mn (throughout US) are already missing out on nearly 1 year of their HS lives (25 % of HS). They are not attending school in person, participating in activities, attending dances, having lunch w/ friends and/or growing via their sports teams. Ultimately, many of our kids are not being prepared for that next phase no matter how much virtual teachers and parents are investing in our high school students. If granted the opportunity, it would be beneficial to many students to have a choice to repeat their grade. It also would allow parents/kids (who could not work during the pandemic) the opportunity to save some additional $$ for college. Are public schools in Mn considering this option? Would private schools allow for kids to repeat their grade or transfer into their private school w/o punishment. Kids should be afforded this opportunity during this pandemic. I believe many would prefer this choice and it would be very helpful for them. I hope our government leaders and institutions give it some serious thought.

[Wise Old Man]

Hey all, I hope everyone is staying safe and your families are healthy. Here's a link to another article regarding the unique challenges hockey poses in regards to the spread of Covid. It has some quotes from Osterholm as well where he explains why hockey is more risky than other indoor sports.

https://abcnews.go.com/US/youth-hockey- ... d=74232730

Although the numbers statewide are still very bad, it looks like they may be stabilizing. Maybe we've hit a plateau. Although, any possible spike from Thanksgiving is likely to start showing up in the next 7 days. Sounds like Walz will probably provide updated mitigation guidance regarding any extension of the current pause by the end of this week.

[spamtownusa]

A chart to provide some food for thought as we await tomorrow’s decision by the Governor.

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracke ... sesper100k

When MN case numbers are mapped against those of our neighboring states, it’s easy to see that the shutdown has done virtually nothing to create a different path for Minnesotans. Just like with each border state... the virus has run its course. Does anyone really think that if MN kids been playing youth sports, if Minnesotans had been going to health clubs, if Minnesotans had been dining in restaurants, etc... our trend line somehow would have veered us off in some direction completely different from every other “non-paused” neighboring state? Of course not. We would be in exactly the same place that we are today.

Let’s listen to the data - it’s time to move past the fear and lift the “pause.”

[spamtownusa]

Apparently, the link won’t hold MN, WI, IA, ND, SD. If you plug those states in you’ll see a strong correlation in virus case trending.

[6AAGuy]

A chart to provide some food for thought as we await tomorrow’s decision by the Governor.

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracke ... sesper100k

When MN case numbers are mapped against those of our neighboring states, it’s easy to see that the shutdown has done virtually nothing to create a different path for Minnesotans. Just like with each border state... the virus has run its course. Does anyone really think that if MN kids been playing youth sports, if Minnesotans had been going to health clubs, if Minnesotans had been dining in restaurants, etc... our trend line somehow would have veered us off in some direction completely different from every other “non-paused” neighboring state? Of course not. We would be in exactly the same place that we are today.

Let’s listen to the data - it’s time to move past the fear and lift the “pause.”

Fantastic statement, this one. Agree 100%.
Let them play.

[Getitright]

Spam. Agree to some extent with what you say. But THE VIRUS HAS RUN ITS COURSE? REALLY. Everything else you say that makes sense goes down the drain with that comment.

[edgeless2]

Agree with Spam to an extent. It’s killing old vulnerable people. I have no idea what that means to any of you, and yet it does mean something significant. The only thing I’m sure of is that Covid has had a significant impact on the population in general. It has divided, it has brought deep cognitive bias, it has been tragic. I’m pretty sure in the end we will all have 20/20 vision, no matter the perspective and say.....see, I told you so! The reality is none of us lay people, let alone the medical community could ever predict the direction of this tragedy. I believe now that kids are fine, even being the most infected of us all. I believe the boomers are the most at risk. I believe this is common sense, given the knowledge of the virus. Now what I believe makes no difference to anyone on this bored, but I think it’s fair to say, keep the youngins away from the oldsters and we just may make out OK.

[spamtownusa]

It sounds like the holiday scare is just too much and Jan 4 will be the date. Disappointing... but not unexpected.

Through yesterday, MN’s average daily cases per 100k is at 65.4. WI is 68.6; IA is 54.5; ND is 86: SD is 78.6. By Jan 4 all will be in the 40 to 50 range... regardless of the restrictions that each state will, or will not, have put in place. That is the course of the virus. The upper midwest is a few weeks ahead of the west and east coasts. They are in for a rough two or three week period.

Take care and stay healthy through the holiday season. I look forward to seeing you all (from a distance) at the rinks in January.

[ironranger2]

Think the better barometer is rolling 7 day average for positivity rate.

South Dakota 42.8%
Iowa 36.1%
Wisconsin 12.2%
Minnesota 9.1%
North Dakota 8.4%

Data is from John Hopkins, but article is here.....https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/p ... ly-14.html

Data points are from 12/15/2020.

[WestMetro]

Karl, Ive been looking at a couple of the links you sent me a couple pages back in the thread.

Minnesota has consistently run about 44000-45000 deaths from all causes in recent years as i mentioned above

So on a 10 month basis, that would be roughly 37100 through October.

I had wondered whether the 2800 Minnesota Covid deaths so far had translated through to an actual increase of 2800 in the total death figure through October

According to this CDC link, Minnesota had 38,700 deaths from all causes through November 3 of this year, So that is only about 1,600 above the normalized 10 month number of 37100, instead of 2800 above it. .

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

Every death is tragic of course, and every excess death is more tragic.

But I find this to be an interesting set of numbers.

Might some of our oldest treasured Minnesota seniors who tragically died from Covid have died by now anyway in 2020 from other causes, if Covid hadnt come along?

On the other hand, might some of our driving age people's lives have been saved because of fewer car crash fatalities during Covid lockdowns, and because of people working from home this year?

Those are just two unproven hypothetical explanations. A person could think of dozens of them

As you mentioned above, we will probably run over the average monthly death figure in November and December, so by the end of the year the excess death trend might have changed.

But the fact that Minnesota is not a full 2,800 over the normalized 10 month death total is of interest

I would welcome any different interpretation of the CDC numbers, or critique of any of my comments

UPDATE THRU DEC 12


According to CDC , 43,500 people have died in Minn in 2020 from all causes through Dec 12. Allowing for 3000 for the rest of December, 2020 final numbers in total should be in the range of 46500.

The projected 46500 total will be approximately 2000 higher than the recent years Minnesota deaths from all causes of 44500.

Minnesotas final 2020 COVID attributed deaths will probably be in the range of 5000-5500.

So somewhat less than half of the Minn Covid attributed deaths will flow through to an increase of total Minn deaths from all causes

I will update these numbers again at the end of the year.

People can draw their own conclusions, but I find this set of numbers to be interesting.

[7TIMECHAMPS]

A thought related to WM's post above. The average nursing home stay is a little over 2 years. With over 2/3 of the deaths in MN occurring in nursing homes it has me doing a bit of wondering. If we see approx 2000 excess deaths this year (with most of those in nursing homes) after this population has been vaccinated do we see a decrease in deaths compared to pre-pandemic numbers in the 2-3 subsequent years? Essentially a pulling forward that is partially offset in the immediate years following. Only time will tell but it will be an interesting study.

[WestMetro]

SLAPSHOT,:

yes thats the point im trying to make. That not all the Covid associated deaths are flowing through to the total deaths.

Ill repost a couple observations i made back on Nov 19

"Might some of our oldest treasured Minnesota seniors who tragically died from Covid have died by now anyway in 2020 from other causes, if Covid hadnt come along?

On the other hand, might some of our driving age people's lives have been saved because of fewer car crash fatalities during Covid lockdowns, and because of people working from home this year?

Those are just two unproven hypothetical explanations. A person could think of dozens of them"

7 TIME CHAMPS:

Yes, I'm imagining the federal vaccination priority panel carefully considered what you are saying. And that MDH agreed with them. They decided LTC people would get the shots right after HC workers. I guess from a moral point of view, they must have figured every life is precious and if you can give most of the LTC seniors an extra bit of time then that's the way to go. Pretty hard to argue with that. Hopefully the rest of us can stay healthy until our slot opens for the VAX. Im in the third slot myself with both the age and the cancer history, I cant argue at all about letting the LTC people go ahead of me.

[ironranger2]

Karl, Ive been looking at a couple of the links you sent me a couple pages back in the thread.

Minnesota has consistently run about 44000-45000 deaths from all causes in recent years as i mentioned above

So on a 10 month basis, that would be roughly 37100 through October.

I had wondered whether the 2800 Minnesota Covid deaths so far had translated through to an actual increase of 2800 in the total death figure through October

According to this CDC link, Minnesota had 38,700 deaths from all causes through November 3 of this year, So that is only about 1,600 above the normalized 10 month number of 37100, instead of 2800 above it. .

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

Every death is tragic of course, and every excess death is more tragic.

But I find this to be an interesting set of numbers.

Might some of our oldest treasured Minnesota seniors who tragically died from Covid have died by now anyway in 2020 from other causes, if Covid hadnt come along?

On the other hand, might some of our driving age people's lives have been saved because of fewer car crash fatalities during Covid lockdowns, and because of people working from home this year?

Those are just two unproven hypothetical explanations. A person could think of dozens of them

As you mentioned above, we will probably run over the average monthly death figure in November and December, so by the end of the year the excess death trend might have changed.

But the fact that Minnesota is not a full 2,800 over the normalized 10 month death total is of interest

I would welcome any different interpretation of the CDC numbers, or critique of any of my comments

UPDATE THRU DEC 12


According to CDC , 43,500 people have died in Minn in 2020 from all causes through Dec 12. Allowing for 3000 for the rest of December, 2020 final numbers in total should be in the range of 46500.

The projected 46500 total will be approximately 2000 higher than the recent years Minnesota deaths from all causes of 44500.

Minnesotas final 2020 COVID attributed deaths will probably be in the range of 5000-5500.

So somewhat less than half of the Minn Covid attributed deaths will flow through to an increase of total Minn deaths from all causes

I will update these numbers again at the end of the year.

People can draw their own conclusions, but I find this set of numbers to be interesting.

When I dig through the numbers, I see the total deaths will fall somewhere around 49000. Total deaths through October were up a little over 10% when compared to the previous 5 year average and we know November/December will be a lot higher.

Also, found this guy on twitter who reports for MPR. Seems to do a good job in taking the numbers and putting them into charts/graphs you can understand.

https://twitter.com/dhmontgomery/status ... 78/photo/1

https://twitter.com/dhmontgomery/status ... 04/photo/1

Also found a chart with hospitalized season flu cases

https://twitter.com/Ddrekonja/status/13 ... 82/photo/1

Right now, at the same point in the seasonal flu season, we are similar to 2018-19, 2016-17, and 2015-16.