covid and MH

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WestMetro
Posts: 3416
Joined: Tue Mar 04, 2014 4:08 pm

Re: covid and MH

Post by WestMetro » Tue Nov 17, 2020 10:19 am

Iron Ranger and Others- yes I believe I suggested on this forum last spring that nursing home staff ought to be getting triple pay for hazard duty, but only if they maintain a negative test every day / week.

If they can’t get enough people to report to duty with negative, tests , then national guard out to be brought in to supplement

We ought to be using the 15 minute Abbott lab test at nursing homes, not the test where you have to wait for 2 to 7 days

Wise old man, I was referring to both sports and school and just the general sense of normalcy and well-being for our young people . We need to keep their lives as consistent as possible and not keep yanking them around- in and out of school , in and out of sports , in and out of hanging out with buddies overnight , etc

elliott70
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Location: Bemidji

Re: covid and MH

Post by elliott70 » Tue Nov 17, 2020 10:26 am

ironranger2 wrote:
Tue Nov 17, 2020 10:11 am
I think he was referring to my post. I was simply responding to WestMetro on why there is an issue in the nursing homes. I agree with 6AA that there should be some sort of incentive for these workers, but I think the political reality is that it won't happen.
Yes, but he referred to me by name.
Shame on him.


Waiting for an apology,

6AAGuy
Posts: 88
Joined: Fri Nov 30, 2018 8:06 am

Re: covid and MH

Post by 6AAGuy » Tue Nov 17, 2020 10:34 am

I am sorry, Elliott. I mistakenly referred to you when I was responding to Ironranger's post (and West Metro's thread).

BodyShots
Posts: 1887
Joined: Fri Feb 29, 2008 9:44 am

Re: covid and MH

Post by BodyShots » Tue Nov 17, 2020 10:36 am

elliott70 wrote:
Tue Nov 17, 2020 10:26 am
ironranger2 wrote:
Tue Nov 17, 2020 10:11 am
I think he was referring to my post. I was simply responding to WestMetro on why there is an issue in the nursing homes. I agree with 6AA that there should be some sort of incentive for these workers, but I think the political reality is that it won't happen.
Yes, but he referred to me by name.
Shame on him.


Waiting for an apology,
Hey, at least he spelled your name correctly. :P

elliott70
Posts: 14185
Joined: Thu Jan 08, 2004 3:47 pm
Location: Bemidji

Re: covid and MH

Post by elliott70 » Tue Nov 17, 2020 10:49 am

6AAGuy wrote:
Tue Nov 17, 2020 10:34 am
I am sorry, Elliott. I mistakenly referred to you when I was responding to Ironranger's post (and West Metro's thread).
Thank you.

elliott70
Posts: 14185
Joined: Thu Jan 08, 2004 3:47 pm
Location: Bemidji

Re: covid and MH

Post by elliott70 » Tue Nov 17, 2020 10:49 am

BodyShots wrote:
Tue Nov 17, 2020 10:36 am
elliott70 wrote:
Tue Nov 17, 2020 10:26 am
ironranger2 wrote:
Tue Nov 17, 2020 10:11 am
I think he was referring to my post. I was simply responding to WestMetro on why there is an issue in the nursing homes. I agree with 6AA that there should be some sort of incentive for these workers, but I think the political reality is that it won't happen.
Yes, but he referred to me by name.
Shame on him.


Waiting for an apology,
Hey, at least he spelled your name correctly. :P
Yes, that always makes me happy.

blueblood
Posts: 2588
Joined: Fri May 26, 2006 8:36 am

Re: covid and MH

Post by blueblood » Tue Nov 17, 2020 12:56 pm

Be prepared for increased cases when the shutdown occurs due to kids maintaining a social life. MSHSL will regret this decision. Maybe not this year. But when their Bread and Butter money maker Hockey State Tournament is bye-bye, schools will be faced with increased fees which will lead to further moves by private firms to form leagues/associations with many sports.
Play Like a Champion Today

WestMetro
Posts: 3416
Joined: Tue Mar 04, 2014 4:08 pm

Re: covid and MH

Post by WestMetro » Tue Nov 17, 2020 12:57 pm

Do any of the smart research people out there know the answer to this question?

Approximately 44,000 or 45,000 people die in Minnesota every year from all causes

This would mean approximately 37,000 would die in the first 10 months in the year

Does anyone know how many Minnesotans actually died through October this year compared to through October last year? It would be interesting to see if the approximately 3000 Covid deaths so far have actually translated into it 3000 year to year increase of total deaths

Wise Old Man
Posts: 340
Joined: Wed Dec 25, 2019 8:11 pm

Re: covid and MH

Post by Wise Old Man » Tue Nov 17, 2020 2:36 pm

WestMetro wrote:
Tue Nov 17, 2020 10:19 am
Iron Ranger and Others- yes I believe I suggested on this forum last spring that nursing home staff ought to be getting triple pay for hazard duty, but only if they maintain a negative test every day / week.

If they can’t get enough people to report to duty with negative, tests , then national guard out to be brought in to supplement

We ought to be using the 15 minute Abbott lab test at nursing homes, not the test where you have to wait for 2 to 7 days

Wise old man, I was referring to both sports and school and just the general sense of normalcy and well-being for our young people . We need to keep their lives as consistent as possible and not keep yanking them around- in and out of school , in and out of sports , in and out of hanging out with buddies overnight , etc
Agree with you 100%. That should be the goal moving forward.

jg2112
Posts: 813
Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2013 8:36 am

Re: covid and MH

Post by jg2112 » Tue Nov 17, 2020 2:37 pm

blueblood wrote:
Tue Nov 17, 2020 12:56 pm
Be prepared for increased cases when the shutdown occurs due to kids maintaining a social life. MSHSL will regret this decision. Maybe not this year. But when their Bread and Butter money maker Hockey State Tournament is bye-bye, schools will be faced with increased fees which will lead to further moves by private firms to form leagues/associations with many sports.
The State is talking about a 3 week pause. How will this cause the downfall of the High School League?

Wise Old Man
Posts: 340
Joined: Wed Dec 25, 2019 8:11 pm

Re: covid and MH

Post by Wise Old Man » Tue Nov 17, 2020 2:43 pm

blueblood wrote:
Tue Nov 17, 2020 12:56 pm
Be prepared for increased cases when the shutdown occurs due to kids maintaining a social life. MSHSL will regret this decision. Maybe not this year. But when their Bread and Butter money maker Hockey State Tournament is bye-bye, schools will be faced with increased fees which will lead to further moves by private firms to form leagues/associations with many sports.
Blueblood... my only push back on your point regarding kids will “maintain a social life”.... As a parent, if I say to my kids they can’t socialize with their friends outside the house due to wanting to minimize the opportunity for spread during a once in a hundred year pandemic, then they don’t leave the house. Period. Does that cause more conflict/frustration between me and my kids? You bet it does. But, that’s why parenting is one of the toughest jobs in the world. Sometimes you just have to be the ***hole. I often say that if my kids aren’t telling me they hate me at least once a month, then I’m not doing my job as a parent properly. 😉

InThePipes
Posts: 864
Joined: Mon Mar 26, 2012 8:26 pm

Re: covid and MH

Post by InThePipes » Tue Nov 17, 2020 2:46 pm

jg2112 wrote:
Tue Nov 17, 2020 2:37 pm
blueblood wrote:
Tue Nov 17, 2020 12:56 pm
Be prepared for increased cases when the shutdown occurs due to kids maintaining a social life. MSHSL will regret this decision. Maybe not this year. But when their Bread and Butter money maker Hockey State Tournament is bye-bye, schools will be faced with increased fees which will lead to further moves by private firms to form leagues/associations with many sports.
The State is talking about a 3 week pause. How will this cause the downfall of the High School League?
Well, probably because we're on day 247 of 15 days to slow the spread.

Wise Old Man
Posts: 340
Joined: Wed Dec 25, 2019 8:11 pm

Re: covid and MH

Post by Wise Old Man » Tue Nov 17, 2020 2:55 pm

Listening to the governor’s briefing. Doesn’t sound like they’re announcing any new restrictions today. Sounds like if they’re going to, it will come at the next briefing. Not sure if that’s tomorrow or Thursday.

He just got asked specifically about what might happen with sports. Walz just said there will be a pause, it will be broad based, and it will come tomorrow. Wouldn’t say how long it would last. Just said it will impact all sports, including high school fall sports playoffs.

Wise Old Man
Posts: 340
Joined: Wed Dec 25, 2019 8:11 pm

Re: covid and MH

Post by Wise Old Man » Tue Nov 17, 2020 3:02 pm

Waltz just said that the various science and medical experts they rely on are saying the level of spread in the upper Midwest is the worst it has been anywhere in the world since the pandemic began.

6AAGuy
Posts: 88
Joined: Fri Nov 30, 2018 8:06 am

Re: covid and MH

Post by 6AAGuy » Tue Nov 17, 2020 3:07 pm

Yet 99.9% recovery.
Elevated tests, High PCR= more covid cases.

thefatcat
Posts: 327
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 11:16 pm

Re: covid and MH

Post by thefatcat » Tue Nov 17, 2020 3:27 pm

6AAGuy wrote:
Tue Nov 17, 2020 3:07 pm
Yet 99.9% recovery.
Elevated tests, High PCR= more covid cases.
Testing since 10/1 has increased by 23% +/-....while confirmed cases are up 38% +/- over that same time frame. More testing doesn't necessarily mean more cases.

InThePipes
Posts: 864
Joined: Mon Mar 26, 2012 8:26 pm

Re: covid and MH

Post by InThePipes » Tue Nov 17, 2020 3:33 pm

Wise Old Man wrote:
Tue Nov 17, 2020 3:02 pm
Waltz just said that the various science and medical experts they rely on are saying the level of spread in the upper Midwest is the worst it has been anywhere in the world since the pandemic began.
Let's see the data on this.

6AAGuy
Posts: 88
Joined: Fri Nov 30, 2018 8:06 am

Re: covid and MH

Post by 6AAGuy » Tue Nov 17, 2020 4:06 pm

thefatcat wrote:
Tue Nov 17, 2020 3:27 pm
6AAGuy wrote:
Tue Nov 17, 2020 3:07 pm
Yet 99.9% recovery.
Elevated tests, High PCR= more covid cases.
Testing since 10/1 has increased by 23% +/-....while confirmed cases are up 38% +/- over that same time frame. More testing doesn't necessarily mean more cases.
My postulate was twofold: Elevated tests AND High PCR. High PCR means more cases.

WestMetro
Posts: 3416
Joined: Tue Mar 04, 2014 4:08 pm

Re: covid and MH

Post by WestMetro » Tue Nov 17, 2020 5:25 pm

This CDC survivability percentage ought to be published for context alongside every daily Covid report in every medium- tv, paper , twitter , etc

https://twitter.com/jgzirbes/status/132 ... 60864?s=21

Dog
Posts: 76
Joined: Wed Aug 22, 2018 10:47 am

Re: covid and MH

Post by Dog » Tue Nov 17, 2020 8:43 pm

Wise Old Man wrote:
Mon Nov 16, 2020 10:46 pm
Dog wrote:
Mon Nov 16, 2020 9:13 pm
OldManRiver wrote:
Mon Nov 16, 2020 3:11 pm
Eye on Politics
@EyeOnPolitics

Ehresman says they are seeing the more and more sports related outbreaks in football (35), basketball (20), volleyball (41), soccer (15), hockey (46). It's also affecting schools, and pushing some into distance learning. Sounds like the Gov. may push the pause button tomorrow.
How exactly are they seeing more "sports related" in hockey if hockey hasn't started yet?

Ummmm....Dog, it’s Nov. 15. There has been competitive high school and/or youth level hockey since Labor Day. The people I have spoken with in my area involved in tracking and managing Covid are saying the MDH knows that many parents of athletes (in all sports) are either lying when contacted by the contact tracers or — and especially in the case where a player has had “close contact” to someone who tested positive and should therefore quarantine for 10-14 days — are not quarantining that player. The MDH believes the amount of sports related spread number of is under-reported.

Obviously, they also understand the importance of keeping kids active so, the absolute last thing they (and I assume Walz as he mentioned his daughter plays a team sport and their team isn’t practicing for two weeks right now) is pause youth and high school sports. Hopefully, this will only last two or three weeks and we can get back to playing.
Ummmm.... WOM, I'm not a fan of the replies with asperity but my understanding was that those numbers above were for HS not youth. If wrong, then I'm wrong.

Typically youth sports are not organised by the school district (ie: football, hockey, baseball, etc) so I'm not sure how schools would collect data on youth sports since there's not a symbiotic relationship between the two and especially since many are apparently lying. (I've seen at least 3 local teams quarantine so I'm not sure where that assertion is coming from). I also found it odd that other sports that had fall leagues (baseball, lacrosse, softball, etc) weren't included in the data.

Regardless, I think we're going to see MN shut down for at least a few weeks.
I'm not interested in a back-and-forth dance. I hope we all cocoon ourselves in the near future so the numbers go down in that time to ensure kids can get back to doing what they enjoy.

I'm a big fan of enjoying a brew or having a burger before a game but I'm committing not to and will strongly encourage others to do (or "not" do) the same.

Many of us are not fans of some of the decisions that have been made in schools/activities for kids. Regardless of how we all feel what has been done, it doesn't matter when we're shut down state wide. If it likely happens, let's all use this as an opportunity to do all we can to get the kids back.

Dog
Posts: 76
Joined: Wed Aug 22, 2018 10:47 am

Re: covid and MH

Post by Dog » Tue Nov 17, 2020 9:02 pm

thefatcat wrote:
Mon Nov 16, 2020 9:21 pm
Dog wrote:
Mon Nov 16, 2020 9:16 pm
thefatcat wrote:
Mon Nov 16, 2020 8:52 pm
They will be pausing all winter sports after this coming weekend in hopes of preventing spread related to the Thanksgiving holiday. It will most likely be a two week pause.

It sucks...but we have only ourselves to blame. Let's do better people.
I keep hearing the "got to do better" but honestly everywhere I go masks are worn by ALL. What else are we supposed to do?
Where are you going where you're seeing people not wear masks?
I'd say that from all of my travels as of late, at least 75% have been wearing masks. But that is based on the places I actually go like the hockey rink, hospital, grocery store and gas station. I don't go to bars / restaurants and that's where a lot of the spread is taking place.
Understood. In my travels to rinks (cities, Grand Rapids, Hibbing, Duluth area rinks) and to grocery stores/Menards etc, from what I've seen there's 100% compliance. I haven't traveled further than that so I can't comment on other areas.

I Haven't been to a bar or restaurant recently but I'm sure compliance is near zero as someone wouldn't be able to eat a burger or drink a beer thru a mask. I always found it strange that the state allowed spread out seating but kept the rail open with people shoulder to shoulder. I believe the state closed the rail now.

Here to hoping a pause or shutdown works so that kids can get back to doing something they love to do.

karl(east)
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Contact:

Re: covid and MH

Post by karl(east) » Tue Nov 17, 2020 10:03 pm

WestMetro wrote:
Tue Nov 17, 2020 12:57 pm
Do any of the smart research people out there know the answer to this question?

Approximately 44,000 or 45,000 people die in Minnesota every year from all causes

This would mean approximately 37,000 would die in the first 10 months in the year

Does anyone know how many Minnesotans actually died through October this year compared to through October last year? It would be interesting to see if the approximately 3000 Covid deaths so far have actually translated into it 3000 year to year increase of total deaths
WM, these reports will probably start giving you an answer:
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6942e2.htm
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covi ... deaths.htm
https://public.tableau.com/shared/X4DBP ... k&:embed=y

I'm not going to mess with the data visualization tool enough to get firm numbers or venture much speculation on what it means, but it's pretty clear that the number of "excess deaths" so far in 2020 is higher than the predicted number. In spring, MN was running at about a 15% higher death rate than the excess deaths threshold, and after stabilizing over the summer, it looks like we're headed right back in that direction now. There are definitely more people dying, and at times there have been substantially more.

Now, I don't think that means there aren't relatively safe ways to have youth or high school sports. I think it is a tragedy that kids are losing parts of their formative years and we are kidding ourselves if we think it won't have some long-lasting effects on educational outcomes, social adjustment, and so on. But the pandemic and some of its downstream effects on our healthcare system are definitely killing people who would not otherwise be dead.

Being in public office right now means making a lot of decisions between bad choices with very limited information. I respect anyone who's trying to make decisions in good faith, even if I disagree with some of them. The ease with which people all over the political spectrum filter what's happening through their priors is a sight to behold.

Wise Old Man
Posts: 340
Joined: Wed Dec 25, 2019 8:11 pm

Re: covid and MH

Post by Wise Old Man » Tue Nov 17, 2020 10:17 pm

Dog wrote:
Tue Nov 17, 2020 8:43 pm
Wise Old Man wrote:
Mon Nov 16, 2020 10:46 pm
Dog wrote:
Mon Nov 16, 2020 9:13 pm


How exactly are they seeing more "sports related" in hockey if hockey hasn't started yet?

Ummmm....Dog, it’s Nov. 15. There has been competitive high school and/or youth level hockey since Labor Day. The people I have spoken with in my area involved in tracking and managing Covid are saying the MDH knows that many parents of athletes (in all sports) are either lying when contacted by the contact tracers or — and especially in the case where a player has had “close contact” to someone who tested positive and should therefore quarantine for 10-14 days — are not quarantining that player. The MDH believes the amount of sports related spread number of is under-reported.

Obviously, they also understand the importance of keeping kids active so, the absolute last thing they (and I assume Walz as he mentioned his daughter plays a team sport and their team isn’t practicing for two weeks right now) is pause youth and high school sports. Hopefully, this will only last two or three weeks and we can get back to playing.
Ummmm.... WOM, I'm not a fan of the replies with asperity but my understanding was that those numbers above were for HS not youth. If wrong, then I'm wrong.

Typically youth sports are not organised by the school district (ie: football, hockey, baseball, etc) so I'm not sure how schools would collect data on youth sports since there's not a symbiotic relationship between the two and especially since many are apparently lying. (I've seen at least 3 local teams quarantine so I'm not sure where that assertion is coming from). I also found it odd that other sports that had fall leagues (baseball, lacrosse, softball, etc) weren't included in the data.

Regardless, I think we're going to see MN shut down for at least a few weeks.
I'm not interested in a back-and-forth dance. I hope we all cocoon ourselves in the near future so the numbers go down in that time to ensure kids can get back to doing what they enjoy.

I'm a big fan of enjoying a brew or having a burger before a game but I'm committing not to and will strongly encourage others to do (or "not" do) the same.

Many of us are not fans of some of the decisions that have been made in schools/activities for kids. Regardless of how we all feel what has been done, it doesn't matter when we're shut down state wide. If it likely happens, let's all use this as an opportunity to do all we can to get the kids back.
Dog...I'll acknowledge I don't know if the numbers cited on Monday were high school only or, both youth and high school. My impression those were numbers that MDH was tracking for those sports at youth and high school (and maybe college as well), versus data that was provided to them by the high schools. Again, I could be wrong. I suspect we'll get more details on that tomorrow.

Obviously, I truly hope a pause is successful in reducing the level of spread enough to allow sports to restart. My other hope is that, if it goes longer than 4 weeks, Minnesota Hockey consider extending the season in to mid to late April. Yes, I realize the "AAA" season starts in early April. However, "AAA" might just need to sacrifice for a few weeks this spring.

Pipes...I share your skepticism on Walz's claim about the degree of spread. I will see if I can find something that supports it (or not). Seemed a bit of a stretch to me as well. It's obviously extremely bad now but, worse than Italy or France or New York last spring? Not sure about that.

WestMetro... I will not argue (nor have I) about the survivability rate for young people. However, as I've argued for months now, it's not about deaths or even significant illness for younger people/kids. It's about reducing community spread. Which in turn reduces hospitalizations, which in turn reduces unnecessary death. With 40% asymptomatic spread but no regularly required weekly testing as college athletics does, we can never know how prevalent athletics spread really is. Along with the fact we simply don't know what the long-term effects may be to young people, even if they are asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic. Whether it's mycarditis, lung scarring, or even possible psychological effects. Administrative leaders -- especially those in school and government -- will always err on the side of being overcautious in regards to maximizing public health and safety. Especially in these types of situations.

Despite our differences in what we think should or shouldn't be done, if we do pause for a few weeks, I hope we can all agree that our goal should be to follow the mitigation guidance being given so we can get sports and schools restarted as soon and as safely as possible.

Wise Old Man
Posts: 340
Joined: Wed Dec 25, 2019 8:11 pm

Re: covid and MH

Post by Wise Old Man » Tue Nov 17, 2020 10:20 pm

karl(east) wrote:
Tue Nov 17, 2020 10:03 pm
WestMetro wrote:
Tue Nov 17, 2020 12:57 pm
Do any of the smart research people out there know the answer to this question?

Approximately 44,000 or 45,000 people die in Minnesota every year from all causes

This would mean approximately 37,000 would die in the first 10 months in the year

Does anyone know how many Minnesotans actually died through October this year compared to through October last year? It would be interesting to see if the approximately 3000 Covid deaths so far have actually translated into it 3000 year to year increase of total deaths
WM, these reports will probably start giving you an answer:
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6942e2.htm
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covi ... deaths.htm
https://public.tableau.com/shared/X4DBP ... k&:embed=y

I'm not going to mess with the data visualization tool enough to get firm numbers or venture much speculation on what it means, but it's pretty clear that the number of "excess deaths" so far in 2020 is higher than the predicted number. In spring, MN was running at about a 15% higher death rate than the excess deaths threshold, and after stabilizing over the summer, it looks like we're headed right back in that direction now. There are definitely more people dying, and at times there have been substantially more.

Now, I don't think that means there aren't relatively safe ways to have youth or high school sports. I think it is a tragedy that kids are losing parts of their formative years and we are kidding ourselves if we think it won't have some long-lasting effects on educational outcomes, social adjustment, and so on. But the pandemic and some of its downstream effects on our healthcare system are definitely killing people who would not otherwise be dead.

Being in public office right now means making a lot of decisions between bad choices with very limited information. I respect anyone who's trying to make decisions in good faith, even if I disagree with some of them. The ease with which people all over the political spectrum filter what's happening through their priors is a sight to behold.
Karl...Great post. Thanks for the links and I agree with your perspective on this. I truly try not to be too judgmental on people in leadership positions I've never held. Especially regarding this specific situation as you are dead on about having only bad choices based on limited info.

PuckNA
Posts: 115
Joined: Mon Dec 03, 2018 10:20 am

Re: covid and MH

Post by PuckNA » Tue Nov 17, 2020 10:22 pm

Guessing Jan 1 is comeback date, after 2 major holidays. Walz slipped and said 4 weeks... my guess.

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