covid and MH

[ironranger2]

Keep in mind a standardized PCR is going to detect if you've EVER had the antibody in your system so there are going to be false positives with the numbers you are seeing everyday, this is why many people are asymptomatic. No standard has been set at what constitutes a false positive but generally anything 40 or above. This is why the test results show DETECTED/ UNDETECTED instead of positive or negative. Detected means that the antibody is detected in your system but doesn't mean you have COVID in the absence of symptoms. The state is reporting all DETECTED as a positive result which is not accurate.

According to the FDA website, this is not true...

https://www.fda.gov/consumers/consumer- ... ing-basics

A PCR molecular test will not tell you if you ever had COVID-19.

[ironranger2]

The Great Doctor Fauci himself has suggested PCR above 35 is basically useless, and going to give false positives. Yet we fail to have a standard that mandates 35 or below. So yes, false positives are going to impact the case numbers. And the decision makers are keenly focused on case numbers (but running tests above 35).

I agree (somewhat). You really need to look at the positivity rate and they know "roughly" what % is going to test as a false positive, so you adjust for that. Unfortunately, our society as a whole is not very good with anything but very basic numbers, so they use total positive cases.

[InThePipes]

Keep in mind a standardized PCR is going to detect if you've EVER had the antibody in your system so there are going to be false positives with the numbers you are seeing everyday, this is why many people are asymptomatic. No standard has been set at what constitutes a false positive but generally anything 40 or above. This is why the test results show DETECTED/ UNDETECTED instead of positive or negative. Detected means that the antibody is detected in your system but doesn't mean you have COVID in the absence of symptoms. The state is reporting all DETECTED as a positive result which is not accurate.

According to the FDA website, this is not true...

https://www.fda.gov/consumers/consumer- ... ing-basics

A PCR molecular test will not tell you if you ever had COVID-19.

Right, the PCR test and presence of the antibody are completely unrelated.

[OldManRiver]

Of Interest:


Tom Hauser
@thauserkstp

DEVELOPING: Sounds like there might be a “pause” coming in winter sports at youth and high school levels in Minnesota. This could include stoppage of games and practices, according to Gov. Walz and Health Commissioner Jan Malcolm. Could be announced in next day or two.

[Wise Old Man]

Of Interest:


Tom Hauser
@thauserkstp

DEVELOPING: Sounds like there might be a “pause” coming in winter sports at youth and high school levels in Minnesota. This could include stoppage of games and practices, according to Gov. Walz and Health Commissioner Jan Malcolm. Could be announced in next day or two.

Hockey (at all levels) has had the most “outbreaks” associated with it compared to any other sport at 46. I believe it was the health commissioner that stated that they (the MDH) are now recommending a pause on all youth and high school sports. Walz stated that they weren’t prepared to announce it today because there were numerous “players” involved to coordinate with before they finalized things. Unfortunately, I’ll be surprised if something doesn’t happen by Friday. This sucks... Stay safe everyone.

[OldManRiver]

Eye on Politics
@EyeOnPolitics

Ehresman says they are seeing the more and more sports related outbreaks in football (35), basketball (20), volleyball (41), soccer (15), hockey (46). It's also affecting schools, and pushing some into distance learning. Sounds like the Gov. may push the pause button tomorrow.

[WestMetro]

But they dodged the question of why 70% of all fatalities are nursing home residents, barely down from last spring which was about 80%.

Not sure I understand the direct link between nursing home deaths and hockey, other than generalization

One of the biggest questions I’ve had for months is why every single nursing home staff member/ visitor can’t be tested every day using the 15 minute Abbott test? That test has been around for 6 months, right?

[Stang5280]

66 high school football teams to miss playoffs:
https://www.mnfootballhub.com/news_article/show/1133109

That is nearly 1 in 5 teams from around the state, and three of the sections are down to merely three teams.

[jg2112]

But they dodged the question of why 70% of all fatalities are nursing home residents, barely down from last spring which was about 80%.

Not sure I understand the direct link between nursing home deaths and hockey, other than generalization

One of the biggest questions I’ve had for months is why every single nursing home staff member/ visitor can’t be tested every day using the 15 minute Abbott test? That test has been around for 6 months, right?

I'll piggyback off of this. The State is offering free at home saliva testing.

If hockey teams isolated for 3 weeks but continued to practice, and had these tests, that could be a way to proceed.

[thefatcat]

They will be pausing all winter sports after this coming weekend in hopes of preventing spread related to the Thanksgiving holiday. It will most likely be a two week pause.

It sucks...but we have only ourselves to blame. Let's do better people.

[Dog]

Eye on Politics
@EyeOnPolitics

Ehresman says they are seeing the more and more sports related outbreaks in football (35), basketball (20), volleyball (41), soccer (15), hockey (46). It's also affecting schools, and pushing some into distance learning. Sounds like the Gov. may push the pause button tomorrow.

How exactly are they seeing more "sports related" in hockey if hockey hasn't started yet?

[Dog]

They will be pausing all winter sports after this coming weekend in hopes of preventing spread related to the Thanksgiving holiday. It will most likely be a two week pause.

It sucks...but we have only ourselves to blame. Let's do better people.

I keep hearing the "got to do better" but honestly everywhere I go masks are worn by ALL. What else are we supposed to do?
Where are you going where you're seeing people not wear masks?

[thefatcat]

They will be pausing all winter sports after this coming weekend in hopes of preventing spread related to the Thanksgiving holiday. It will most likely be a two week pause.

It sucks...but we have only ourselves to blame. Let's do better people.

I keep hearing the "got to do better" but honestly everywhere I go masks are worn by ALL. What else are we supposed to do?
Where are you going where you're seeing people not wear masks?

I'd say that from all of my travels as of late, at least 75% have been wearing masks. But that is based on the places I actually go like the hockey rink, hospital, grocery store and gas station. I don't go to bars / restaurants and that's where a lot of the spread is taking place.

[Wise Old Man]

Eye on Politics
@EyeOnPolitics

Ehresman says they are seeing the more and more sports related outbreaks in football (35), basketball (20), volleyball (41), soccer (15), hockey (46). It's also affecting schools, and pushing some into distance learning. Sounds like the Gov. may push the pause button tomorrow.

How exactly are they seeing more "sports related" in hockey if hockey hasn't started yet?

Ummmm....Dog, it’s Nov. 15. There has been competitive high school and/or youth level hockey since Labor Day. The people I have spoken with in my area involved in tracking and managing Covid are saying the MDH knows that many parents of athletes (in all sports) are either lying when contacted by the contact tracers or — and especially in the case where a player has had “close contact” to someone who tested positive and should therefore quarantine for 10-14 days — are not quarantining that player. The MDH believes the amount of sports related spread number of is under-reported.

Obviously, they also understand the importance of keeping kids active so, the absolute last thing they (and I assume Walz as he mentioned his daughter plays a team sport and their team isn’t practicing for two weeks right now) is pause youth and high school sports. Hopefully, this will only last two or three weeks and we can get back to playing.

[Wise Old Man]

They will be pausing all winter sports after this coming weekend in hopes of preventing spread related to the Thanksgiving holiday. It will most likely be a two week pause.

It sucks...but we have only ourselves to blame. Let's do better people.

I keep hearing the "got to do better" but honestly everywhere I go masks are worn by ALL. What else are we supposed to do?
Where are you going where you're seeing people not wear masks?

I'd say that from all of my travels as of late, at least 75% have been wearing masks. But that is based on the places I actually go like the hockey rink, hospital, grocery store and gas station. I don't go to bars / restaurants and that's where a lot of the spread is taking place.

They actually said in today’s press conference that they estimate mask wearing at around 70-75%. Need 90-95% to make it as effective as we need it to be.

[green4]

I keep hearing the "got to do better" but honestly everywhere I go masks are worn by ALL. What else are we supposed to do?
Where are you going where you're seeing people not wear masks?

I'd say that from all of my travels as of late, at least 75% have been wearing masks. But that is based on the places I actually go like the hockey rink, hospital, grocery store and gas station. I don't go to bars / restaurants and that's where a lot of the spread is taking place.

They actually said in today’s press conference that they estimate mask wearing at around 70-75%. Need 90-95% to make it as effective as we need it to be.

For work I travel to a lot of rural communities across the country and it is a totally different world than in the cities. 95% seems pretty accurate to me in the Twin Cities, at least close to the city where I typically spend my time. I haven't been to too many rural Minnesota cities lately so I can't speak for them, but my last two work trips brought me to Nebraska and Southern Illinois.
I was in Wayne, Nebraska for three days and I saw one older woman wearing a mask at the grocery store and then the staff at one of the two restaurants I went to wearing masks. In Southern Illinois I was in a town of about 1500 people near Effingham, this is an area that just voted 70-80% in favor of kicking Chicago out of Illinois. I didn't see one person wearing a mask during my stay and people were actually a little aggressive towards me because I wore one walking into a restaurant.
Before those trips I was in Lansing and Toledo. Lansing was probably close to 90% while Toledo was probably closer to 75%, which is pretty terrible given how many people live in the Toledo area.

[WestMetro]

Green what are you up to nowadays ? Obviously a long ways removed from your Braemar Zam days?

All , I just find it frustrating there is about 100 to 1 public discussion of Sports Spread / Distance Learning/ Restaurant capacity etc , Bar times , in comparison how to keep the 70+ year olds safe and especially 80+ in nursing homes .

Why is it we haven’t figured out how to keep Covid out of the nursing homes yet , and therefore keep nursing home residents out of the hospital or worse . Why isnt there more discussion and accountability of this simple question.

Anyone going in should have the Abbott 15 minute test first. If MDH and the private operators can’t figure it out , maybe Gov Walz should see if Natl Guard discipline can help out there.

Meanwhile let’s let kids be kids , whether it be school or sports and not take another year out of their development and psyche . That’s a bad thing , trust me on that . Maybe they just can’t see Grandpa or Grandma for a while , but trust me on that too -they’d get over that .

[BSUBeaver]

I keep hearing the "got to do better" but honestly everywhere I go masks are worn by ALL. What else are we supposed to do?
Where are you going where you're seeing people not wear masks?

I'd say that from all of my travels as of late, at least 75% have been wearing masks. But that is based on the places I actually go like the hockey rink, hospital, grocery store and gas station. I don't go to bars / restaurants and that's where a lot of the spread is taking place.

They actually said in today’s press conference that they estimate mask wearing at around 70-75%. Need 90-95% to make it as effective as we need it to be.

Needs to be 90-95% wearing them properly. I had to run to the local big box store this past weekend for some groceries and I would say half the people I paid attention to either did not have a mask on or if they did, it wasn't being worn properly....

[ironranger2]

Green what are you up to nowadays ? Obviously a long ways removed from your Braemar Zam days?

All , I just find it frustrating there is about 100 to 1 public discussion of Sports Spread / Distance Learning/ Restaurant capacity etc , Bar times , in comparison how to keep the 70+ year olds safe and especially 80+ in nursing homes .

Why is it we haven’t figured out how to keep Covid out of the nursing homes yet , and therefore keep nursing home residents out of the hospital or worse . Why isnt there more discussion and accountability of this simple question.

Anyone going in should have the Abbott 15 minute test first. If MDH and the private operators can’t figure it out , maybe Gov Walz should see if Natl Guard discipline can help out there.

Meanwhile let’s let kids be kids , whether it be school or sports and not take another year out of their development and psyche . That’s a bad thing , trust me on that . Maybe they just can’t see Grandpa or Grandma for a while , but trust me on that too -they’d get over that .

WM-

The majority of privately run nursing homes, at least in rural areas, are staffed by people making close to minimum wage. You can make more money working at Target or Menards. Don't believe me? Google wages for CNA's or nursing home workers. $10.50 to start at a place in Hibbing right now.

We know the nursing home residents are not hanging out at the bars and restaurants, but guess who is? Some of the workers coming into care for them.

Does anyone honestly believe 20-29 year old nursing home workers are going to quarantine at home on the days when they aren't working?

[ironranger2]

For the record, I believe the kids should be playing sports as well. No proof, but I would bet any COVID related spread is coming from the parents hanging out before the games. Do whatever needs to be done, including keeping parents out of the arenas, to make this work.

[6AAGuy]

Green what are you up to nowadays ? Obviously a long ways removed from your Braemar Zam days?

All , I just find it frustrating there is about 100 to 1 public discussion of Sports Spread / Distance Learning/ Restaurant capacity etc , Bar times , in comparison how to keep the 70+ year olds safe and especially 80+ in nursing homes .

Why is it we haven’t figured out how to keep Covid out of the nursing homes yet , and therefore keep nursing home residents out of the hospital or worse . Why isnt there more discussion and accountability of this simple question.

Anyone going in should have the Abbott 15 minute test first. If MDH and the private operators can’t figure it out , maybe Gov Walz should see if Natl Guard discipline can help out there.

Meanwhile let’s let kids be kids , whether it be school or sports and not take another year out of their development and psyche . That’s a bad thing , trust me on that . Maybe they just can’t see Grandpa or Grandma for a while , but trust me on that too -they’d get over that .

WM-

The majority of privately run nursing homes, at least in rural areas, are staffed by people making close to minimum wage. You can make more money working at Target or Menards. Don't believe me? Google wages for CNA's or nursing home workers. $10.50 to start at a place in Hibbing right now.

We know the nursing home residents are not hanging out at the bars and restaurants, but guess who is? Some of the workers coming into care for them.

Does anyone honestly believe 20-29 year old nursing home workers are going to quarantine at home on the days when they aren't working?

So, Elliott, you're saying that because those 20-29 year old nursing home workers won't stay at home, we should mandate that everyone in the state should? That's irresponsible, IMO.

Frankly, your scenario pretty much articulates an interesting solution (though not the one you intended): The MDH data shows the 25 and Under group has a 99.9% recovery rate. It's not much less than that for 55 and under as well.

Perhaps your 20-29 yo nursing home workers could quarrantine/shelter in place while they are working with high risk people, and perhaps they could get a large boost of government subsidy for it--like a double or triple of their currently too-low wages. All until the vaccine takes effect.

Sounds like a win/win/win to me. Kids are back in school (and back to healthy, developmental activities), the economy becomes robust, and HC workers get paid for their significant sacrifice for the period of time until vaccine takes hold. Still while all wear masks, socially distance, etc.

All is preferable to a blanket shut down.

[Wise Old Man]

Some great thoughts folks. 6AA...Your idea about boosting low paid, LTC home worker pay is basically what myself and others are advocating our government do, just in a more targeted way. But still, a very good idea. That would be important since many of these workers have second jobs (where they can obviously also pick up the virus).

Ironranger...there’s no doubt irresponsible patents are part of the problem. Obviously, for transmission to occur between kids at the rink, one kid had to be the original vector who brought it to the rink. However, there are numerous cases where kid, coaches, and even officials and rink staff tested positive within a few days after a single player who had played in a tournament or game, and numerous teammates had also subsequently tested positive. Meaning, although not a guarantee as that’s literally almost impossible to provide, it becomes fairly likely the one infected player was initial spreader. Here’s an article about a tournament in Anchorage back in October that shows just how much spread they believe occurred resulting from that one tournament.

https://www.adn.com/alaska-news/2020/10 ... ournament/

WestMetro.... not to nitpick but — hey it’s me you said let’s not have the kids lose another year of development. If you’re talking specifically hockey development, high school had finished before March’s shutdown and only 8 youth teams at the respective state tournament levels hadn’t finished. Meaning, if we shut down for a few weeks, those will be the first days/weeks of actual in-season hockey that all players in youth and high school will have experienced. So, at the youth and high school levels at least, it’s a bit inaccurate to suggest we can’t “lose another year of development” if those players haven’t had to miss any actual time yet.

Now, if you’re also including school time, that’s a different topic.

[elliott70]

Green what are you up to nowadays ? Obviously a long ways removed from your Braemar Zam days?

All , I just find it frustrating there is about 100 to 1 public discussion of Sports Spread / Distance Learning/ Restaurant capacity etc , Bar times , in comparison how to keep the 70+ year olds safe and especially 80+ in nursing homes .

Why is it we haven’t figured out how to keep Covid out of the nursing homes yet , and therefore keep nursing home residents out of the hospital or worse . Why isnt there more discussion and accountability of this simple question.

Anyone going in should have the Abbott 15 minute test first. If MDH and the private operators can’t figure it out , maybe Gov Walz should see if Natl Guard discipline can help out there.

Meanwhile let’s let kids be kids , whether it be school or sports and not take another year out of their development and psyche . That’s a bad thing , trust me on that . Maybe they just can’t see Grandpa or Grandma for a while , but trust me on that too -they’d get over that .

WM-

The majority of privately run nursing homes, at least in rural areas, are staffed by people making close to minimum wage. You can make more money working at Target or Menards. Don't believe me? Google wages for CNA's or nursing home workers. $10.50 to start at a place in Hibbing right now.

We know the nursing home residents are not hanging out at the bars and restaurants, but guess who is? Some of the workers coming into care for them.

Does anyone honestly believe 20-29 year old nursing home workers are going to quarantine at home on the days when they aren't working?

So, Elliott, you're saying that because those 20-29 year old nursing home workers won't stay at home, we should mandate that everyone in the state should? That's irresponsible, IMO.
I have nevre said anything like that. You are quoting people that are not me. Do not be irresponsible.


Frankly, your scenario pretty much articulates an interesting solution (though not the one you intended): The MDH data shows the 25 and Under group has a 99.9% recovery rate. It's not much less than that for 55 and under as well.

Perhaps your 20-29 yo nursing home workers could quarrantine/shelter in place while they are working with high risk people, and perhaps they could get a large boost of government subsidy for it--like a double or triple of their currently too-low wages. All until the vaccine takes effect.

Sounds like a win/win/win to me. Kids are back in school (and back to healthy, developmental activities), the economy becomes robust, and HC workers get paid for their significant sacrifice for the period of time until vaccine takes hold. Still while all wear masks, socially distance, etc.

All is preferable to a blanket shut down.

[ironranger2]

WM-

The majority of privately run nursing homes, at least in rural areas, are staffed by people making close to minimum wage. You can make more money working at Target or Menards. Don't believe me? Google wages for CNA's or nursing home workers. $10.50 to start at a place in Hibbing right now.

We know the nursing home residents are not hanging out at the bars and restaurants, but guess who is? Some of the workers coming into care for them.

Does anyone honestly believe 20-29 year old nursing home workers are going to quarantine at home on the days when they aren't working?

So, Elliott, you're saying that because those 20-29 year old nursing home workers won't stay at home, we should mandate that everyone in the state should? That's irresponsible, IMO.
I have nevre said anything like that. You are quoting people that are not me. Do not be irresponsible.


Frankly, your scenario pretty much articulates an interesting solution (though not the one you intended): The MDH data shows the 25 and Under group has a 99.9% recovery rate. It's not much less than that for 55 and under as well.

Perhaps your 20-29 yo nursing home workers could quarrantine/shelter in place while they are working with high risk people, and perhaps they could get a large boost of government subsidy for it--like a double or triple of their currently too-low wages. All until the vaccine takes effect.

Sounds like a win/win/win to me. Kids are back in school (and back to healthy, developmental activities), the economy becomes robust, and HC workers get paid for their significant sacrifice for the period of time until vaccine takes hold. Still while all wear masks, socially distance, etc.

All is preferable to a blanket shut down.

I think he was referring to my post. I was simply responding to WestMetro on why there is an issue in the nursing homes. I agree with 6AA that there should be some sort of incentive for these workers, but I think the political reality is that it won't happen.

[BodyShots]

I'd say that from all of my travels as of late, at least 75% have been wearing masks. But that is based on the places I actually go like the hockey rink, hospital, grocery store and gas station. I don't go to bars / restaurants and that's where a lot of the spread is taking place.

They actually said in today’s press conference that they estimate mask wearing at around 70-75%. Need 90-95% to make it as effective as we need it to be.

For work I travel to a lot of rural communities across the country and it is a totally different world than in the cities. 95% seems pretty accurate to me in the Twin Cities, at least close to the city where I typically spend my time. I haven't been to too many rural Minnesota cities lately so I can't speak for them, but my last two work trips brought me to Nebraska and Southern Illinois.
I was in Wayne, Nebraska for three days and I saw one older woman wearing a mask at the grocery store and then the staff at one of the two restaurants I went to wearing masks. In Southern Illinois I was in a town of about 1500 people near Effingham, this is an area that just voted 70-80% in favor of kicking Chicago out of Illinois. I didn't see one person wearing a mask during my stay and people were actually a little aggressive towards me because I wore one walking into a restaurant.
Before those trips I was in Lansing and Toledo. Lansing was probably close to 90% while Toledo was probably closer to 75%, which is pretty terrible given how many people live in the Toledo area.

My son had to go to Eastern Wisconsin for work. He walked into a bar/restaurant for takeout with his mask on. He said the bar was packed and nobody was wearing a mask. They all looked at him like he was crazy! Some people just don't get it.......