MSHSL Oct 1st Meeting (Boys Hockey Season Fate)

[Wise Old Man]

WOM and Hunter win. My inside source says all schools will be shut down in a week or two. Walz will also shut down bars and restaurants. Your local YMCA and gyms closed also. Sad deal

Wolfy... Trust me when I say I hope beyond all hope that you are wrong. And...if you aren't, I sure as hell don't consider that outcome a "win'

[WestMetro]

A little off the hockey topic....but germain to Covid

There are some very good researchers on this thread.

One thing I have been trying to find with no success.
How many deaths have there been in all of Minnesota through the first nine months of 2020 compared to the first nine months of 2019, from all causes?

I was able to find annual data for 2018 and 2017 that seems to indicate that Minnesota deaths from all causes are pretty consistent around 44,000 or 45,000 per year . So you would expect about 33000 for 9 months I suppose .

I just wonder if anyone could find the actual 9 month 2020 vs 9 month 2019 data? Does it clearly show a 2000 deaths increase for the effect of Covid? Or is it not so clear?

[lakescountrylife]

Yet 5 weeks into high school football there has not been outbreak associated to football games.

Go to your bunker and stay there until you die. COVID-19 is endemic like Influenza, not just a pandemic. Much harsher but it will not go away like Smallpox with a vaccine.

ZAMBONI/HOTSHOT, is that you?

[thefatcat]

WOM and Hunter win. My inside source says all schools will be shut down in a week or two. Walz will also shut down bars and restaurants. Your local YMCA and gyms closed also. Sad deal

Do you mind divulging your source? At least what industry/agency he/she works in? Will ice arenas be shut down?

by thefatcat » Thu Oct 22, 2020 4:28 pm

"We killed our elderly by secluding them"

The same people who say this also say "let us live our lives and we'll just have to protect the elderly since it affects that age group at an exponentially higher rate". I'm sorry, you can't have it both ways.

My neighbor who works in communications for the Governor believes based on what they're hearing that as soon as the election is over that we'll be going back into a lockdown if cases continue to rise like they have been over the last 2-3 weeks. I very sincerely hope that person is wrong as I have two boys playing hockey. If that does happen, you can kiss the high school hockey season goodbye if that is the case...and it will be our own damn fault.
Top

[goldy313]

Why was Cloquet shut down? Positive cases related to a game? Community spread? Symptomatic players? Without context your charge is like yelling fire in a crowded theater. That is your Modus Operandi though of course.

[ClassAGuy]

Been awhile since I checked this Forum out.

Well, my sources were right about the Hockey Season getting chopped down to 18 games. Still, the month as it went a lot was filled with some at least excitement about games and Fans (Very limited) as we get the 1st week of December.

I checked back with the sources on how the State Tournament was looking this week and oddly I didn't really get much response ....


Then Yesterday I was told that right now with current case rate projections and the early snow sending people inside that there is a rumor of a state-wide school and activities shutdown coming before the Holiday Season if numbers keep racing upwards. Ugh.... I asked what will that mean for hockey and the reply back was TBD but if case counts continue over the next two weeks on the current trend many predicting a total stoppage in Mid November at least through the entire holiday season...

So while the month started positively it looks as though we could be heading for a bad news November... Hoping the case rate tames I want to see hockey I don't need to be in the rink a stream is fine just want hockey... Looking more doubtful again now..

[jg2112]

Added statistical support for "uh oh" with regard to winter hockey.

Anoka County is shutting things down based on data from 9/27 - 10/10. Statewide, Minnesota averaged 1083.5 cases per day during that period. That data recommends that 44 of the state's 87 counties send secondary students home for distance learning.

The upcoming Department of Health report on 10/29 will be based on data from 10/4 - 10/17. During that timeframe, Minnesota averaged 1307.36 cases per day.

The report coming on November 5 will be based on data from 10/11 - 10/24. During that timeframe, Minnesota averaged 1521 cases per day.

Obviously that data gets broken down further into county-by-county tabulations, but Ramsey and Hennepin Counties are on the tipping point of going over 30, which is the level to send secondary students home.

I think the only way kids will play hockey this winter will be in empty arenas. Let's hope at least the kids get that opportunity.

[6AAGuy]

I love it when people say older folks dying from this is not important enough to change sports. Some lives are the ones we should base our decisions on! High school sports kids? 20 somethings with kids?

Hunter, we can care about older people dying and still work to live our lives. Are you an advocate for eliminating automobiles too? 50,000 people a year die from car accidents that wouldn't happen if we outlawed autos! Don't those lives matter? Where's your BAN CARS NOW movement? Is that on a different sports-oriented forum?

Kids need interaction. They need school, they need activity. There is a whole group of doctors suggesting the kids under 25 should be out, active, and socializing. You are incredibly judgmental, and often condescending to an anyone who disagrees with you.

6AA...first, can you please link to something regarding the group of doctors you referenced so I can see what they're saying? Would really appreciate that. Thanks

Second, I understand your frustration with "Hunters" approach. Believe me, I get it. My intent is to simply provide some context to your argument regarding auto fatalities. According to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, in 2018 there 36,560 people killed in auto accidents. Now, in 1979 the number of deaths per 100,000 people was 22.07. In 2018 it had been cut in half to 11.18. You know why? Because as a society we chose to make cars safer by incorporating advancements in tech and design that allowed us to mitigate the unnecessary loss of life due to auto accidents. Many of those mandated by government regulation. That means that, without those improvements we likely would've had over 75,000 deaths in 2018.

Fast forward to 2020. We have now lost over 223,000 lives to Covid in just about 8 months. And most experts say that's likely undercounted. Current projections of deaths by Feb 1 is now around 315,000. And that's still in just 11 months. You need to look at limitations in size of gatherings or capacity of restaurants and bars, or limitations on indoor sports not in a true bubble, and mask wearing the same way you look at mandated improvements in auto safety or, laws against smoking indoors. Same concept. Mitigation of risk that reduces unnecessary and preventable deaths...

Nobody disagrees that there are negative side-effects of these limitations on our society. But not one expert on the virus I have read or heard agrees with "the cure can't be worse than the disease". I'm not saying you and others don't have a right to disagree. It is a free country. But, this isn't going to last "forever". Unless your definition of forever is this June.

WOM--Check out the Great Barrington Declaration, for one: https://gbdeclaration.org/
A clear call for Focused Protection and re-opening. Signed by half a million people and promoted by three of the top ID docs in the world.

Also, arguing the auto example is a non-starter. We clearly, as a society, accept a number of deaths as a matter of fact when we engage in the activity of auto driving. This kind of cost-benefit analysis is done every day and has been for decades. It basically analyzes the benefits of an activity (in this case driving cars) with the costs (death, major injury and pollution) and suggests the benefits by the activity outweigh the costs.

[ClassAGuy]

Added statistical support for "uh oh" with regard to winter hockey.

Anoka County is shutting things down based on data from 9/27 - 10/10. Statewide, Minnesota averaged 1083.5 cases per day during that period. That data recommends that 44 of the state's 87 counties send secondary students home for distance learning.

The upcoming Department of Health report on 10/29 will be based on data from 10/4 - 10/17. During that timeframe, Minnesota averaged 1307.36 cases per day.

The report coming on November 5 will be based on data from 10/11 - 10/24. During that timeframe, Minnesota averaged 1521 cases per day.

Obviously that data gets broken down further into county-by-county tabulations, but Ramsey and Hennepin Counties are on the tipping point of going over 30, which is the level to send secondary students home.

I think the only way kids will play hockey this winter will be in empty arenas. Let's hope at least the kids get that opportunity.

Thank you jg2112 for the data...

Now it makes more sense my sources who are in the know said the light switch moment of bad news would be after Nov 5. I thought it had to do with the election but now makes sense what they were hinting at.

Ugh I am sorry to all I don't want to be the person broadcasting bad news... I do not want to turn this into a political debate like so many above have just want hockey some way some how... Hoping my sources are not right... Want to be watching hockey come December

[Wise Old Man]

Hunter, we can care about older people dying and still work to live our lives. Are you an advocate for eliminating automobiles too? 50,000 people a year die from car accidents that wouldn't happen if we outlawed autos! Don't those lives matter? Where's your BAN CARS NOW movement? Is that on a different sports-oriented forum?

Kids need interaction. They need school, they need activity. There is a whole group of doctors suggesting the kids under 25 should be out, active, and socializing. You are incredibly judgmental, and often condescending to an anyone who disagrees with you.

6AA...first, can you please link to something regarding the group of doctors you referenced so I can see what they're saying? Would really appreciate that. Thanks

Second, I understand your frustration with "Hunters" approach. Believe me, I get it. My intent is to simply provide some context to your argument regarding auto fatalities. According to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, in 2018 there 36,560 people killed in auto accidents. Now, in 1979 the number of deaths per 100,000 people was 22.07. In 2018 it had been cut in half to 11.18. You know why? Because as a society we chose to make cars safer by incorporating advancements in tech and design that allowed us to mitigate the unnecessary loss of life due to auto accidents. Many of those mandated by government regulation. That means that, without those improvements we likely would've had over 75,000 deaths in 2018.

Fast forward to 2020. We have now lost over 223,000 lives to Covid in just about 8 months. And most experts say that's likely undercounted. Current projections of deaths by Feb 1 is now around 315,000. And that's still in just 11 months. You need to look at limitations in size of gatherings or capacity of restaurants and bars, or limitations on indoor sports not in a true bubble, and mask wearing the same way you look at mandated improvements in auto safety or, laws against smoking indoors. Same concept. Mitigation of risk that reduces unnecessary and preventable deaths...

Nobody disagrees that there are negative side-effects of these limitations on our society. But not one expert on the virus I have read or heard agrees with "the cure can't be worse than the disease". I'm not saying you and others don't have a right to disagree. It is a free country. But, this isn't going to last "forever". Unless your definition of forever is this June.

WOM--Check out the Great Barrington Declaration, for one: https://gbdeclaration.org/
A clear call for Focused Protection and re-opening. Signed by half a million people and promoted by three of the top ID docs in the world.

Also, arguing the auto example is a non-starter. We clearly, as a society, accept a number of deaths as a matter of fact when we engage in the activity of auto driving. This kind of cost-benefit analysis is done every day and has been for decades. It basically analyzes the benefits of an activity (in this case driving cars) with the costs (death, major injury and pollution) and suggests the benefits by the activity outweigh the costs.

6AA...appreciate your response. You and I will have to agree to disagree on your assessment regarding our sociaety's "acceptance" of a certain number of deaths regarding auto accidents. That would be true if you could definitively say that neither the auto industry or the government were no longer making any effort to improve safety and reduce deaths. But that's obviously not the case. Just because we still have 35,000 plus deaths each year doesn't mean we aren't making strides in reduction.

Now, as individuals do we make that risk/reward judgement every time we get behind the wheel? Absolutely. But, when I go to buy a car now, there are minimum safety standards/equipment that I require before I choose to purchase. And, more importantly, there's a lot less chance of me negatively affecting another person's life than there is if I'm an infectious asymptomatic carrier and I choose to go out in public without a mask.

As for your Barrington link, I read it. Here's how I respond;

https://www.infectioncontroltoday.com/v ... eclaration

https://blog.ucsusa.org/derrick-jackson ... d-immunity

https://www.contagionlive.com/view/herd ... eclaration

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expe ... rotection/

There were many more. This is a fringe proposal that the vast, vast, majority of scientists and doctors believe would lead to FAR more unnecessary hospitalizations and deaths. Again, we aren't currently locked down, nor have been all summer. Could we be again? Sounds like it's a possibility. Even if that happens, it sure seems by all reports that we'll have an effective and widely distributable vaccine by June at the latest. As long as we get another stimulus bill, we could go back into a more restrictive situation thru the winter and not significantly harm the economy any worse than it currently has been.

[Wise Old Man]

Why was Cloquet shut down? Positive cases related to a game? Community spread? Symptomatic players? Without context your charge is like yelling fire in a crowded theater. That is your Modus Operandi though of course.

It was symptomatic players with spreading within the two teams. Based on the length of my posts, I'm pretty sure most people on here would agree that the absolute last thing I can be accused of is lacking context in my posts.

[6AAGuy]

6AA...first, can you please link to something regarding the group of doctors you referenced so I can see what they're saying? Would really appreciate that. Thanks

Second, I understand your frustration with "Hunters" approach. Believe me, I get it. My intent is to simply provide some context to your argument regarding auto fatalities. According to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, in 2018 there 36,560 people killed in auto accidents. Now, in 1979 the number of deaths per 100,000 people was 22.07. In 2018 it had been cut in half to 11.18. You know why? Because as a society we chose to make cars safer by incorporating advancements in tech and design that allowed us to mitigate the unnecessary loss of life due to auto accidents. Many of those mandated by government regulation. That means that, without those improvements we likely would've had over 75,000 deaths in 2018.

Fast forward to 2020. We have now lost over 223,000 lives to Covid in just about 8 months. And most experts say that's likely undercounted. Current projections of deaths by Feb 1 is now around 315,000. And that's still in just 11 months. You need to look at limitations in size of gatherings or capacity of restaurants and bars, or limitations on indoor sports not in a true bubble, and mask wearing the same way you look at mandated improvements in auto safety or, laws against smoking indoors. Same concept. Mitigation of risk that reduces unnecessary and preventable deaths...

Nobody disagrees that there are negative side-effects of these limitations on our society. But not one expert on the virus I have read or heard agrees with "the cure can't be worse than the disease". I'm not saying you and others don't have a right to disagree. It is a free country. But, this isn't going to last "forever". Unless your definition of forever is this June.

WOM--Check out the Great Barrington Declaration, for one: https://gbdeclaration.org/
A clear call for Focused Protection and re-opening. Signed by half a million people and promoted by three of the top ID docs in the world.

Also, arguing the auto example is a non-starter. We clearly, as a society, accept a number of deaths as a matter of fact when we engage in the activity of auto driving. This kind of cost-benefit analysis is done every day and has been for decades. It basically analyzes the benefits of an activity (in this case driving cars) with the costs (death, major injury and pollution) and suggests the benefits by the activity outweigh the costs.

6AA...appreciate your response. You and I will have to agree to disagree on your assessment regarding our sociaety's "acceptance" of a certain number of deaths regarding auto accidents. That would be true if you could definitively say that neither the auto industry or the government were no longer making any effort to improve safety and reduce deaths. But that's obviously not the case. Just because we still have 35,000 plus deaths each year doesn't mean we aren't making strides in reduction.

Now, as individuals do we make that risk/reward judgement every time we get behind the wheel? Absolutely. But, when I go to buy a car now, there are minimum safety standards/equipment that I require before I choose to purchase. And, more importantly, there's a lot less chance of me negatively affecting another person's life than there is if I'm an infectious asymptomatic carrier and I choose to go out in public without a mask.

As for your Barrington link, I read it. Here's how I respond;

https://www.infectioncontroltoday.com/v ... eclaration

https://blog.ucsusa.org/derrick-jackson ... d-immunity

https://www.contagionlive.com/view/herd ... eclaration

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expe ... rotection/

There were many more. This is a fringe proposal that the vast, vast, majority of scientists and doctors believe would lead to FAR more unnecessary hospitalizations and deaths. Again, we aren't currently locked down, nor have been all summer. Could we be again? Sounds like it's a possibility. Even if that happens, it sure seems by all reports that we'll have an effective and widely distributable vaccine by June at the latest. As long as we get another stimulus bill, we could go back into a more restrictive situation thru the winter and not significantly harm the economy any worse than it currently has been.

I searched the background on just one of the articles you cite (and all the articles you cited have a common thread of talking points). Wasn't surprised at who composes the "Union of Concerned Scientists" (answer: anyone who donates $25 to them) and who is funding them. http://leftexposed.org/2015/12/union-of ... cientists/

Not going to go into the rest, though I suspect they'll be similar. The Barrington scientists are actually real doctors, from Harvard, Stanford, and Oxford. Backed by hundreds of thousands of HC professionals as well.

Thanks for the debate. It's clear where you stand and I disagree, respectfully.

[BodyShots]

The southern states peaked during the summer because everybody was going indoors to escape the heat and moving to air conditioning. The northern states are starting to peak because its getting cold outside and everybody is going indoors where its warm. Sorry folks, but its only going to get worse up here in the near future. It's not looking good for schools or extra curricular activities.

[InThePipes]

WOM and Hunter win. My inside source says all schools will be shut down in a week or two. Walz will also shut down bars and restaurants. Your local YMCA and gyms closed also. Sad deal

Do you mind divulging your source? At least what industry/agency he/she works in? Will ice arenas be shut down?

Heard any more?

[Eagles93]

It is becoming more obvious that the source is correct and that most schools (at least High Schools) around the state will be going full-time remote learning very soon if they're not already. You just have to follow the link below, they update this every Thursday. Basically, if the county that your school is in goes over 30, the state recommends full remote learning for high school.

https://www.health.state.mn.us/diseases ... school.pdf

The good news is that Anoka-Hennepin allowed sports to continue so hopefully that is the decision for all school districts.

[jg2112]

It is becoming more obvious that the source is correct and that most schools (at least High Schools) around the state will be going full-time remote learning very soon if they're not already. You just have to follow the link below, they update this every Thursday. Basically, if the county that your school is in goes over 30, the state recommends full remote learning for high school.

https://www.health.state.mn.us/diseases ... school.pdf

The good news is that Anoka-Hennepin allowed sports to continue so hopefully that is the decision for all school districts.

Anoka switched to distance based on 33 infections per 10,000 last week. They're now up to 39 per 10,000 as of today.

The numbers are bad. Chisago and Stearns are now high enough that all their students should distance learn. Washington County might be there next week. Ramsey County is now in a position to send all its 6-12 graders home in the next week or two. In sum, 62 of 87 counties are now in "your middle and high schoolers should distance learn" range.

The reports on 11/5 and 11/12 are not going to inspire confidence about the winter. The current report, which 62 of 87 in the danger zone, is based on an average of 1,307 infections per day from 10/4 to 10/17. The report next Thursday will be based on an average of 1,521 infections per day from 10/11 to 10/25.

The report on 11/12 will be based on 10/18 to 10/31, which so far is an average of 1,768 infections per day. Today's number alone (2,867) is 25% higher than any other day in the pandemic to date.

Update: including today's number of 3,165, the average for 10/18 to 10/31 so far is 1,875 infections per day.

[Puckguy19]

WOM and Hunter win. My inside source says all schools will be shut down in a week or two. Walz will also shut down bars and restaurants. Your local YMCA and gyms closed also. Sad deal

Do you mind divulging your source? At least what industry/agency he/she works in? Will ice arenas be shut down?

It would have to go to another level for ice arenas to be shut down; but the trend is not positive. I believe we could see rinks shuttered from Thanksgiving through January if we don't flatten and reverse the curve.

[jg2112]

WOM and Hunter win. My inside source says all schools will be shut down in a week or two. Walz will also shut down bars and restaurants. Your local YMCA and gyms closed also. Sad deal

Do you mind divulging your source? At least what industry/agency he/she works in? Will ice arenas be shut down?

It would have to go to another level for ice arenas to be shut down; but the trend is not positive. I believe we could see rinks shuttered from Thanksgiving through January if we don't flatten and reverse the curve.

I respectfully disagree. There's no way parents will allow ice arenas to be shut down. They would file multiple lawsuits to force them open.

I think the most likely outcome is that practices and games will take place in empty arenas, with no fans. Parents / fans will have to stream the games. Not sure how high schools will cover that in the budget....

[yesiplayedhockey]

Question for the experts with all this scientific data....The flu and Covid are totally different correct? okay...so

First question ......Last year (2019), how many people died from the "flu"? What percentage of them fell in each age group (the same age groupings we now track with Covid)

Second question - Since March 2020, how many people have died from "the flu"

Final question...Scientists....Do you think the number of flu cases documented between now and March 2021 will be similar to last year, higher than last year or millions less than last year?

I'll hang up and listen

[blueblood]

I believe WOM can answer the first two

Regarding the 3rd ? - I'm pretty sure I read the CDC will not be tracking flu cases this winter. Can anyone else confirm this or am I wrong?

[wolfman]

Nobody passes away from flu anymore. It’s all Covid. I had Covid a month ago and made it. I’m still holding out hope my source is wrong on shutdowns. We can be careful and not shut down. Please vote on Tuesday and hope for the best. I miss Kniven on the Forum..... I pray he is ok

[lakescountrylife]

Nobody passes away from flu anymore. It’s all Covid. I had Covid a month ago and made it. I’m still holding out hope my source is wrong on shutdowns. We can be careful and not shut down. Please vote on Tuesday and hope for the best. I miss Kniven on the Forum..... I pray he is ok

RALEIGH, N.C. (WLOS) — The first flu-related death of North Carolina’s 2020-21 flu season was reported Thursday, Oct. 15 by the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services’ Division of Public Health.

[east hockey]

Nobody passes away from flu anymore. It’s all Covid. I had Covid a month ago and made it. I’m still holding out hope my source is wrong on shutdowns. We can be careful and not shut down. Please vote on Tuesday and hope for the best. I miss Kniven on the Forum..... I pray he is ok

RALEIGH, N.C. (WLOS) — The first flu-related death of North Carolina’s 2020-21 flu season was reported Thursday, Oct. 15 by the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services’ Division of Public Health.

So much for "nobody", huh?

Lee

[Schotzy]

....I miss Kniven on the Forum..... I pray he is ok

I have seen evidence of Kniven on twitter. He is alive and well, blocking people left and right.

[WestMetro]

Yeah , Kniven is all over our twitter feed , alive and well !