blueblood wrote: ↑Mon Jun 08, 2020 2:51 pm
WOM:
I read you article. Now you can read mine.
Bb, I actually had read it prior to you posting it.
But, very good article and, IF kids aren't as asymptomatic spreaders to the degree we may have thought then I'll be the first guy to say let's re-evaluate keeping schools closed or, not allowing team sports to open in a much bigger way. However, the first thing that went through my mind was, let's see what some of the other major global health care entities, researchers, or scientific voices say in reaction to that. And, as we've all seen today, not only did the WHO walk it back but, literally not one of those other prominent entities or individuals was willing to agree with that position.
Oh, and to your comment about the WHO being pressured by other groups to walk it back?...Our own CDC disagreed and they have generally been taking their orders from our current administration. That kind of pressure?
Next (combining multiple responses here), to 7TIME; if you were addressing me in your post from 6:20 last night, trust me, I am hoping beyond hope that things change in a way that either proves we (the "quarantiners" and the "listen to the scientist folks") had it wrong to a degree that allows us to go back far closer to normal than we are now and, in a way that doesn't genuinely put many others at unnecessary risk, I'll gladly eat as many crows as I need to.
And, the article you provided presents very interesting information and ideas along those lines. Remember, I actually provide what I do for my family in a full time capacity through this game. And again, I have a 13 year old who truly loves the game and wants to play it. Even before I spent over $2K on those shooting tiles for my entire garage floor two weeks ago, he was shooting pucks and stick handling at least 5 days a week. Now, trust me, he NEEDS IT....
However, if we don't have a "normal" season, he will be devastated. You know what though, he will live. And, we (he & I will make the best of it). We'll do our backyard rink and, go to the neighborhood rinks if they're open and we'll make the best of it.
To grindiangrad; both of the stats you quote are accurate. Or, close to accurate although you didn't provide a link to where you got the info. Regardless, it's completely your right to use those figures in the way you did. And, we all know why you did. You don't feel this virus/pandemic is as serious as others think it is, nor that it was worth to shelter-in-place to the degree or length of time we did. Especially in Minnesota. And, those numbers paint a very specific picture regarding the virus that obviously helps make YOUR argument. For the umpteenth time, please provide the name of ANY researcher, scientist, medical specialist with a legitimate expertise around this/these types of viruses and their spread that approved of opening up both when we did or to the degree we did. Remember, not one state has met all of the parameters the CDC set for states to re-open before they did. Including ours.
I get it, you're trying to make the comparison between how many people die of other causes but, we don't take the same degree of precautions that we have with Covid and, thus have the same degree of hardship, especially economically. First, you do realize most of those deaths -- even with auto deaths to a certain degree -- the in-the-moment or long term consistent decision making of person who dies was completely within their control AND, more importantly, their actions don't legitimately threaten the life of another human being either directly or even between 2-4 levels away from them. The medical/scientific community isn't using those types of comparisons to measure the risk because they understand it's a legitimate apples to oranges comparison and not a valid way to look at it.
To be clear, even using your approach, IF we hadn't locked down, almost every predictive model -- even the one the administration was using -- were predicting at least a million to 1.5 million deaths. There's still a very good chance we break the 250,000 death mark by Jan. 1. According to the website Statista, we currently only have about 6,200 confirmed flu-only deaths between Feb. 1 and May 31st. Versus approximately 87,000 Covid-only deaths (official CDC totals are always a couple weeks behind Worldmeters or John's Hopkins). Oh, and don't forget, almost every expert believes that we are under-counting by at least 10%. Here's the link to the Statista website:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/111 ... nd-flu-us/
What's even more disingenuous about using the death numbers the way you did is, we're only 3.5 months from where we started counting deaths. Shouldn't we wait until at least a full year has passed so we can make a proper comparison? Now, I will acknowledge that there are new studies just out, albeit using strictly circumstantial evidence -- showing much higher google searches for cough, flu, diarrhea, and others in China, as well as satellite imagery that shows parking lots of Chinese hospitals being far more full of cars than they normally would be...in October. Even if it didn't start until November, there's obviously a good chance there were Covid deaths in the U.S. as early as December. However, until the medical/scientific community does a legitimate study on deaths that were counted as flu or, the cause of death was undetermined, I'm going to assume that since we had our peak in mid-April that if there were Covid deaths before Feb. 1, there weren't enough to be statistically relevant.
What's unfortunate is that -- and I hope I'm dead wrong here but, based on the fact that many of you on the other side of this debate seem to repeat many of the same things on a regular basis (ok, some on this side do too, even me) -- I've actually linked to articles on research, and studies that, if you're willing to open your mind in any way, shape, or form to new ideas or information that might actually go against the narrative you currently have and, maybe even change your mind
-- almost none of you even mention the specifics of what I've posted. Maybe it's because you have read what I've posted and, deep down inside, you know it disproves your point/opinion/narrative but, you've become so afraid of admitting you might be wrong/made a mistake 3 years ago that you just can't bring yourself to admit it.
Either that or, you simply didn't read it because you didn't want to take the chance that you might learn something new. Or, my posts are simply so darn long, you quit reading after the first paragraph.
Finally, to TMNHockey; your point about the genetic testing showing kids rarely giving it to parents is intriguing. Can you please forward where you read that? Would genuinely like to read that. One last thing I want to ask those on the opposite side of the debate; I'm genuinely interested in why you are so untrustworthy about the majority of what the science is saying about this situation as you seem to be. These are literally the best minds in the world working on this.
As I stated recently, I admit there have been numerous missteps and mistakes about many aspects of this disease. Let's be honest, things are changing literally on a day to day basis. Just look at the last two days. I get that's very frustrating. It is for me as well. However, if you think these people have put in 60 plus hour weeks since early March and doing their absolute best to get it right as often as possible, then I've got some beach front property in Death Valley to sell you. Yes, even people with this much expertise and experience aren't freaking perfect. It's a brand new virus. And, because of how new it is, we are again learning new things literally every day -- and probably will be for years -- even after we get a vaccine. Thus, even these high level experts are going make more mistakes than normal. That doesn't mean those mistakes are politically motivated.
I won't assume that any of you are ardent supporters of the current administration BUT, if any of you are, WHY are you so willing to give it the benefit of the doubt and maintain your support, despite extremely and obvious egregious missteps and comments on an almost everyday basis? I won't even attempt to address the lost 8 weeks of preparation regarding this virus, nor the recent scientific report that states if we had locked down even one week earlier, it would've saved approximately 346,000 lives, 54,000 if we did it two week earlier... Link to Forbes article;
https://www.forbes.com/sites/isabeltogo ... acdd4a42f1
Yet, if some scientist, doctor, or researcher, makes an honest mistake, even a second or third one, they immediately lose any and all credibility in your eyes from that point on. That's an incredible inconsistency in the application of logic and reasoning. More importantly, in all my reading and watching about this situation, I haven't felt that any more than maybe a handful of them were displaying any obvious political agenda. No offense, but only a couple here have any kind of legitimate medical training and experience. And, I genuinely try to give their opinions and comments honest consideration. Any ways, I hope all of stay safe.