Seeding for State

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knights58
Posts: 82
Joined: Tue Nov 10, 2009 9:02 am

Re: Seeding for State

Post by knights58 » Fri Feb 28, 2020 10:30 am

Green and White Fan wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 9:10 am
There is no way in Class A that Warroad shouldn't have the #1 seed. They beat Cathedral and Rapids, whom Hermantown lost to and they never lost a game to a Class A opponent all year. They also man handled a top 5 team in EGF last night. I see no argument for anyone but them as the #1 seed.
They do factor in more than just a one game head to head scenario...similar to when the Wild beat the Capitals, they don’t jump 20 spots in the power rankings. Warroads strength of schedule is not close to SCC or Hermantowns...if they played those schedules, they would have a different record. (see two losses to an average AA team in Roseau).
They certainly have an argument for number one..but to say there is NO argument for Hermantown or SCC is not correct.

deacon
Posts: 571
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2007 6:59 pm

Re: Seeding for State

Post by deacon » Fri Feb 28, 2020 10:33 am

hockey59 wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 9:49 am


There’s not a snowballs chance in 🏒hell STA will be seeded 😂 My prediction is they draw the Huskies☝️
That would be a bad draw for them then, STA has won 13 of 14 and only allowed 1 goal in sections. Hottest team in the state, at least considering where they were 2 months ago.

StanleyCup55
Posts: 148
Joined: Wed Nov 13, 2013 11:36 am

Re: Seeding for State

Post by StanleyCup55 » Fri Feb 28, 2020 10:35 am

I don’t see why the league is protective of not letting people know they seed 1-8 especially when you can go back and clearly see what they’re doing yet come out and say they only seed 1-5 and 6-8 are random.

Why you lying MSHSL?

hm88
Posts: 63
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2007 6:18 pm

Re: Seeding for State

Post by hm88 » Fri Feb 28, 2020 10:50 am

Just going to throw this out there. Did a little research to pass the time leading up to tonights game.

Records vs State tournament teams...

Andover (4-1) did not play HM or WBL
Maple Grove (3-3) w/HM win, (3-2) w/WBL win (beat Blake head-to-head)
Blake (3-3) w/HM win, (3-2) w/WBL win
Moorhead (1-3) w/HM win, (1-2) w/WBL win
EP (0-2-1) did not play HM or WBL
STA (0-2-2) w/HM win, (0-1-1) w/WBL win
LS (0-1) did not play HM or WBL

HM (4-0-1)

WBL (0-0-0)

They won't base their rankings solely on records vs State tournament teams but it was interesting to go back and see the results from this season.

Take it or leave it.

My rankings (based on record vs State tournament teams)
w/HM
#1 - Andover
#2 - HM (highly unlikely result)
#3 - MG
#4 - Blake
#5 - Moorhead

w/WBL
#1 - Andover
#2 - MG
#3 - Blake
#4 - Moorhead
#5 - EP

I doubt these will be the actual rankings - but thought I would have some fun with the records.

FREDFLINTSTONE
Posts: 627
Joined: Wed Jan 17, 2007 9:05 am

Re: Seeding for State

Post by FREDFLINTSTONE » Fri Feb 28, 2020 10:57 am

I agree with Blueblood. The Lake was down this year and two teams in the state tournament beat EP. The 4 spot is spot on.

Doc Holliday
Posts: 577
Joined: Thu Oct 12, 2006 3:20 pm
Location: SW Suburbs

Re: Seeding for State

Post by Doc Holliday » Fri Feb 28, 2020 11:17 am

I used to think that it was seeded 1-8 & they just said that it was random draw, but after some results over the past few years since they've seeded 1-5, I really do think it's random.

2019: #1 Edina drew Moorhead, where most thought Lakeville South would have been "8"
2018: Lakeville North vs. Hill Murray for the 8 seed....could have gone either way probably.
2017: I think if it was predetermined, they would have tried to avoid a Lake quarter final with EP-Wayzata.
2016: Anoka probably the 8

I used to think it was seeded 1-8 after Edina & Benilde somehow met in the last quarter in 2012 with Duluth East getting Lakeville South (regardless of that upset outcome, LS would rightfully be considered the "8" seed) and 1AA playing against the #1 seed 3 years in a row in '10, '11, & '12. But in '13, Edina as the 3 got Lakeville North which would have been considered the 8 by most observers. Once they went to 1-5 seeds, the chances of the 1 seed getting the "8" increase.

As for stats:
-#1 seed is 10-3 in quarterfinals and has won 7 straight, with the last loss in '12. Champs 5 times, Runner-Up 3 times.
-#2 seed is 11-2 in quarterfinals, last loss in '17. Champs 3 times, Runner-Up 2 times.
-#3 seed is 9-4 in quarterfinals, last loss in '15. Champs 2 times, Runner-Up 4 times (Runner-Up 3 consecutive years).
-#4 seed is 6-7 overall in quarterfinals. Split to 4v5 in '13. Since then, 4 is 3-4. 5 is 4-3 with one champ in '17.

Seems like 4 teams can probably win the big one, but getting one of the top 3 seeds does seem to matter. Now, to what extent it's due to the top 3 just being better or having "easier" opponents is probably on a case-by-case basis.

As for this year, only thing I think is EP will be one of the top 3. I know their H2H record against tourney teams isn't stellar, but they a) haven't lost since Blake has come in, which will be taken under consideration for sure, and b) will get the cred for winning 2AA that usually comes, as shown last year. As Teddy Ice said last year, the coaches know...

Bayside Tigers
Posts: 220
Joined: Thu Jan 30, 2014 6:32 pm

Re: Seeding for State

Post by Bayside Tigers » Fri Feb 28, 2020 11:51 am

Just a couple notes, EP lost to Minnetonka after Blake returned (by a score of 1-3). Also detailing ST T’s current streak: “On Jan 9th after a 5-1 home loss to Hastings the STA hockey team had a record of 5-7-1. Since that time they are 13-1 (only loss at Hill Murray 3-2 on Jan 30th), Section 3AA Champions, and going to State for the 4th year in a row.”

Wouldn’t that be great if some whistleblower sold TMZ some audio or video of some evil MSHSL guys actually ranking 6, 7 and 8, laughing hysterically as they chose #8. Confirming why we can’t rank 6 through 8, so no one gets laughed at.

Cobber
Posts: 79
Joined: Wed Feb 07, 2007 8:09 pm

Re: Seeding for State

Post by Cobber » Fri Feb 28, 2020 12:49 pm

I don't think anyone would be laughing at the 8 seed in AA their is 56 other teams in the state that would love to be there. As far as the seeding goes coaches vote there preference more than anything if they want a certain team they will say record is the most important or QRF is or who they play or how they are playing now.

Sparlimb
Posts: 1777
Joined: Tue Feb 05, 2002 7:11 am

Re: Seeding for State

Post by Sparlimb » Fri Feb 28, 2020 12:57 pm

Cobber wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 12:49 pm
I don't think anyone would be laughing at the 8 seed in AA their is 56 other teams in the state that would love to be there. As far as the seeding goes coaches vote there preference more than anything if they want a certain team they will say record is the most important or QRF is or who they play or how they are playing now.
8th seed has won before. So it can happen. And seriously. This year. Any of the 8 can win everything. No one stands above the others. Andover is the closest to a favorite we have, but first time teams rarely live up to their reputation. I remember a high flying Maple Grove team their first year after trouncing Blaine in the section finals...

Green and White Fan
Posts: 439
Joined: Tue Feb 05, 2002 3:51 pm

Re: Seeding for State

Post by Green and White Fan » Fri Feb 28, 2020 1:24 pm

Cathedral lost to Warroad and got blasted in their final regular season game by EGF who got man handled by Warroad last night and they lost to Moorhead whom Warroad beat. Giving Cathedral the 1 seed would be nothing short of cheating! I think you have to look at common opponents with Warroad and Hermantown and Warroad gets that edge. With no bias, Warroad 1, Hermantown 2 and Cathedral 3. Remember, this is a Roseau guy sticking up for Warroad! Also remember, the average Roseau team they lost to just gave the #3 or #4 seed Moorhead all they could handle in the section final!
Last edited by Green and White Fan on Fri Feb 28, 2020 1:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
We've got 7 yes we do, we've got 7, how about you!

Sparlimb
Posts: 1777
Joined: Tue Feb 05, 2002 7:11 am

Re: Seeding for State

Post by Sparlimb » Fri Feb 28, 2020 1:25 pm

Green and White Fan wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 1:24 pm
Cathedral lost to Warroad and got blasted in their final regular season game by EGF who got man handled by Warroad last night and they lost to Moorhead whom Warroad beat. Giving Cathedral the 1 seed would be nothing short of cheating! I think you have to look at common opponents with Warroad and Hermantown and Warroad gets that edge. With no bias, Warroad 1, Hermantown 2 and Cathedral 3. Remember, this is a Roseau guy sticking up for Warroad!
Who are you? This Warroad take is very concerning to your loved ones. Put the bottle down and reassess.

RoseauHockeyFan
Posts: 182
Joined: Sat Dec 22, 2007 6:38 pm

Re: Seeding for State

Post by RoseauHockeyFan » Fri Feb 28, 2020 1:31 pm

Green and White Fan wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 9:10 am
There is no way in Class A that Warroad shouldn't have the #1 seed. They beat Cathedral and Rapids, whom Hermantown lost to and they never lost a game to a Class A opponent all year. They also man handled a top 5 team in EGF last night. I see no argument for anyone but them as the #1 seed.
Warroad also beat Moorhead, one of the top AA teams in the state. They should be seeded #1.

Joe2015
Posts: 240
Joined: Tue Feb 17, 2015 2:50 pm

Re: Seeding for State

Post by Joe2015 » Fri Feb 28, 2020 2:11 pm

Doc Holliday wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 11:17 am
I used to think that it was seeded 1-8 & they just said that it was random draw, but after some results over the past few years since they've seeded 1-5, I really do think it's random.

2019: #1 Edina drew Moorhead, where most thought Lakeville South would have been "8"
2018: Lakeville North vs. Hill Murray for the 8 seed....could have gone either way probably.
2017: I think if it was predetermined, they would have tried to avoid a Lake quarter final with EP-Wayzata.
2016: Anoka probably the 8

I used to think it was seeded 1-8 after Edina & Benilde somehow met in the last quarter in 2012 with Duluth East getting Lakeville South (regardless of that upset outcome, LS would rightfully be considered the "8" seed) and 1AA playing against the #1 seed 3 years in a row in '10, '11, & '12. But in '13, Edina as the 3 got Lakeville North which would have been considered the 8 by most observers. Once they went to 1-5 seeds, the chances of the 1 seed getting the "8" increase.

As for stats:
-#1 seed is 10-3 in quarterfinals and has won 7 straight, with the last loss in '12. Champs 5 times, Runner-Up 3 times.
-#2 seed is 11-2 in quarterfinals, last loss in '17. Champs 3 times, Runner-Up 2 times.
-#3 seed is 9-4 in quarterfinals, last loss in '15. Champs 2 times, Runner-Up 4 times (Runner-Up 3 consecutive years).
-#4 seed is 6-7 overall in quarterfinals. Split to 4v5 in '13. Since then, 4 is 3-4. 5 is 4-3 with one champ in '17.

Seems like 4 teams can probably win the big one, but getting one of the top 3 seeds does seem to matter. Now, to what extent it's due to the top 3 just being better or having "easier" opponents is probably on a case-by-case basis.

As for this year, only thing I think is EP will be one of the top 3. I know their H2H record against tourney teams isn't stellar, but they a) haven't lost since Blake has come in, which will be taken under consideration for sure, and b) will get the cred for winning 2AA that usually comes, as shown last year. As Teddy Ice said last year, the coaches know...
Just curious where you are getting this info from: Im finding different sites that list the state tourny results but that that list the seeds

NorthernHockey12
Posts: 6
Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2020 2:44 pm

Re: Seeding for State

Post by NorthernHockey12 » Fri Feb 28, 2020 2:54 pm

knights58 wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 10:30 am
Green and White Fan wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 9:10 am
There is no way in Class A that Warroad shouldn't have the #1 seed. They beat Cathedral and Rapids, whom Hermantown lost to and they never lost a game to a Class A opponent all year. They also man handled a top 5 team in EGF last night. I see no argument for anyone but them as the #1 seed.
They do factor in more than just a one game head to head scenario...similar to when the Wild beat the Capitals, they don’t jump 20 spots in the power rankings. Warroads strength of schedule is not close to SCC or Hermantowns...if they played those schedules, they would have a different record. (see two losses to an average AA team in Roseau).
They certainly have an argument for number one..but to say there is NO argument for Hermantown or SCC is not correct.
Couple things to note about this.. Yes Warroad’s strength of schedule was not as strong as the other two. but these kids don’t have a say in that, all they could do was to take care of business with the big teams they were given. And they did (GR, SCC, Moorhead, EGF 3x) yes the two losses to rival Roseau but those aren’t just two normal games to the Rams and the Warriors.
anything can happen.

I think it’s
#1 Warroad
#2 HTown
#3 SCC

ryguyMN
Posts: 371
Joined: Sun Feb 21, 2016 4:08 pm
Location: Western WI

Re: Seeding for State

Post by ryguyMN » Fri Feb 28, 2020 3:04 pm

Count me as a 1 vs. 8 conspiracy theorist up until last year when Eden Prairie drew Lakeville South. Many saw Lakeville South as the 8 seed last year and EP wasn't the top seed. Chalk it up to the EP "benefit of the doubt" that Karl eluded to in a previous post in this thread.
Ryan

Mite-dad
Posts: 1110
Joined: Fri Feb 09, 2007 9:16 am

Re: Seeding for State

Post by Mite-dad » Fri Feb 28, 2020 3:08 pm

Boy, Single A quarters might be bad this year.

Joe2015
Posts: 240
Joined: Tue Feb 17, 2015 2:50 pm

Re: Seeding for State

Post by Joe2015 » Fri Feb 28, 2020 3:10 pm

Mite-dad wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 3:08 pm
Boy, Single A quarters might be bad this year.
Worse than any other year though? Usually those are bad anyway. Maybe Monticello can challenge one of the top 3

Doc Holliday
Posts: 577
Joined: Thu Oct 12, 2006 3:20 pm
Location: SW Suburbs

Re: Seeding for State

Post by Doc Holliday » Fri Feb 28, 2020 3:23 pm

Joe2015 wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 2:11 pm

Just curious where you are getting this info from: Im finding different sites that list the state tourny results but that that list the seeds
Just off the top of my head & memory.

In seed order:
2007: Edina, Roseau, Hill-Murray, Blaine
2008: Roseau, Edina, Benilde, Hill-Murray
2009: Edina, Eden Prairie, Blaine, Duluth East
2010: Minnetonka, Edina, Blaine, Hill-Murray
2011: Eden Prairie, Edina, Duluth East, Eagan
2012: Duluth East, Maple Grove, Eagan, Edina
2013: Hill-Murray, Duluth East, Edina, Wayzata, Centennial
2014: Edina, Lakeville North, Eden Prairie, Duluth East, Eagan
2015: Lakeville North, Edina, St. Thomas Academy, Blaine, Eden Prairie
2016: Eden Prairie, Stillwater, Wayzata, Grand Rapids, Bemidji
2017: Eden Prairie, St Thomas Academy, Moorhead, Maple Grove, Grand Rapids
2018: Minnetonka, Edina, Duluth East, St Thomas Academy, Centennial
2019: Edina, Blaine, Eden Prairie, St Thomas Academy, Duluth East

Sparlimb
Posts: 1777
Joined: Tue Feb 05, 2002 7:11 am

Re: Seeding for State

Post by Sparlimb » Fri Feb 28, 2020 5:23 pm

Joe2015 wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 2:11 pm
Doc Holliday wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 11:17 am
I used to think that it was seeded 1-8 & they just said that it was random draw, but after some results over the past few years since they've seeded 1-5, I really do think it's random.

2019: #1 Edina drew Moorhead, where most thought Lakeville South would have been "8"
2018: Lakeville North vs. Hill Murray for the 8 seed....could have gone either way probably.
2017: I think if it was predetermined, they would have tried to avoid a Lake quarter final with EP-Wayzata.
2016: Anoka probably the 8

I used to think it was seeded 1-8 after Edina & Benilde somehow met in the last quarter in 2012 with Duluth East getting Lakeville South (regardless of that upset outcome, LS would rightfully be considered the "8" seed) and 1AA playing against the #1 seed 3 years in a row in '10, '11, & '12. But in '13, Edina as the 3 got Lakeville North which would have been considered the 8 by most observers. Once they went to 1-5 seeds, the chances of the 1 seed getting the "8" increase.

As for stats:
-#1 seed is 10-3 in quarterfinals and has won 7 straight, with the last loss in '12. Champs 5 times, Runner-Up 3 times.
-#2 seed is 11-2 in quarterfinals, last loss in '17. Champs 3 times, Runner-Up 2 times.
-#3 seed is 9-4 in quarterfinals, last loss in '15. Champs 2 times, Runner-Up 4 times (Runner-Up 3 consecutive years).
-#4 seed is 6-7 overall in quarterfinals. Split to 4v5 in '13. Since then, 4 is 3-4. 5 is 4-3 with one champ in '17.

Seems like 4 teams can probably win the big one, but getting one of the top 3 seeds does seem to matter. Now, to what extent it's due to the top 3 just being better or having "easier" opponents is probably on a case-by-case basis.

As for this year, only thing I think is EP will be one of the top 3. I know their H2H record against tourney teams isn't stellar, but they a) haven't lost since Blake has come in, which will be taken under consideration for sure, and b) will get the cred for winning 2AA that usually comes, as shown last year. As Teddy Ice said last year, the coaches know...
Just curious where you are getting this info from: Im finding different sites that list the state tourny results but that that list the seeds
Always trust a Hill kid to keep this kind of information...

https://www.hmpioneers.net/hockey/playoff.htm

Blue Line
Posts: 21
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2019 9:27 am

Re: Seeding for State

Post by Blue Line » Fri Feb 28, 2020 6:32 pm

Doc Holliday wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 11:17 am
-As for this year, only thing I think is EP will be one of the top 3. I know their H2H record against tourney teams isn't stellar, but they a) haven't lost since Blake has come in, which will be taken under consideration for sure, and b) will get the cred for winning 2AA that usually comes, as shown last year. As Teddy Ice said last year, the coaches know...
EP lost to Minnetonka after Blake joined the line up. The most recent weakest loss of any of the teams being considered for seeding.

East Side Pioneer Guy
Posts: 725
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 6:43 pm

Re: Seeding for State

Post by East Side Pioneer Guy » Fri Feb 28, 2020 9:44 pm

My two wishes:

1) The MSHSL puts the random draw on a live stream so I don't have to hear about this stupid conspiracy theory. Why the H would they even care enough to conspire about that? No on benefits from it.

2) This thread is only for Class AA.

But more than that, it's amusing to read "they go by head to head", or whatever. Don't the participating coaches vote? They can go by what ever they want. They can have 8 different criteria. They rank the teams 1 to 8, and don't tell us much about why. Or even how they voted.

Sparlimb
Posts: 1777
Joined: Tue Feb 05, 2002 7:11 am

Re: Seeding for State

Post by Sparlimb » Fri Feb 28, 2020 9:54 pm

East Side Pioneer Guy wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 9:44 pm
My two wishes:

1) The MSHSL puts the random draw on a live stream so I don't have to hear about this stupid conspiracy theory. Why the H would they even care enough to conspire about that? No on benefits from it.

2) This thread is only for Class AA.

But more than that, it's amusing to read "they go by head to head", or whatever. Don't the participating coaches vote? They can go by what ever they want. They can have 8 different criteria. They rank the teams 1 to 8, and don't tell us much about why. Or even how they voted.
No need to worry about AA vs A conversation. We can share threads. I do think the coaches rank them 1-8, but I do imagine they random draw the last 3. Here's my AA seedings.

1. Andover
2. EP
3. Blake
4. HM
5. Moorhead
STA, LS, MG in some order.

BlueLineSpecial
Posts: 625
Joined: Mon Feb 28, 2011 7:42 am
Location: RIGHT BEHIND YOU!!!!

Re: Seeding for State

Post by BlueLineSpecial » Fri Feb 28, 2020 9:59 pm

Sparlimb wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 9:54 pm
East Side Pioneer Guy wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 9:44 pm
My two wishes:

1) The MSHSL puts the random draw on a live stream so I don't have to hear about this stupid conspiracy theory. Why the H would they even care enough to conspire about that? No on benefits from it.

2) This thread is only for Class AA.

But more than that, it's amusing to read "they go by head to head", or whatever. Don't the participating coaches vote? They can go by what ever they want. They can have 8 different criteria. They rank the teams 1 to 8, and don't tell us much about why. Or even how they voted.
No need to worry about AA vs A conversation. We can share threads. I do think the coaches rank them 1-8, but I do imagine they random draw the last 3. Here's my AA seedings.

1. Andover
2. EP
3. Blake
4. HM
5. Moorhead
STA, LS, MG in some order.
I wholeheartedly agree, with Hill & Blake flipped:

1. Andover
2. EP
3. Hill
4. Blake
5. Moorhead

STA, LA, MG

Blake's overall body of work is probably a wee bit better than Hill's. Tough to overlook a 7-1 shellacking and the overall record of Hill against tourney teams. IMHO....
The City of Hill Murray is beautiful this time of year

ifallsin64
Posts: 89
Joined: Wed Mar 10, 2010 6:35 pm

Re: Seeding for State

Post by ifallsin64 » Fri Feb 28, 2020 10:02 pm

No need to worry about AA vs A conversation. We can share threads. I do think the coaches rank them 1-8, but I do imagine they random draw the last 3. Here's my AA seedings.

1. Andover
2. EP
3. Blake
4. HM
5. Moorhead
STA, LS, MG in some order.

I believe this is how it’s going to be, would love to see a Moorhead Hill rematch.

Blue Line
Posts: 21
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2019 9:27 am

Re: Seeding for State

Post by Blue Line » Fri Feb 28, 2020 10:12 pm

BlueLineSpecial wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 9:59 pm
Sparlimb wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 9:54 pm
East Side Pioneer Guy wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 9:44 pm
My two wishes:

1) The MSHSL puts the random draw on a live stream so I don't have to hear about this stupid conspiracy theory. Why the H would they even care enough to conspire about that? No on benefits from it.

2) This thread is only for Class AA.

But more than that, it's amusing to read "they go by head to head", or whatever. Don't the participating coaches vote? They can go by what ever they want. They can have 8 different criteria. They rank the teams 1 to 8, and don't tell us much about why. Or even how they voted.
No need to worry about AA vs A conversation. We can share threads. I do think the coaches rank them 1-8, but I do imagine they random draw the last 3. Here's my AA seedings.

1. Andover
2. EP
3. Blake
4. HM
5. Moorhead
STA, LS, MG in some order.
I wholeheartedly agree, with Hill & Blake flipped:

1. Andover
2. EP
3. Hill
4. Blake
5. Moorhead

STA, LA, MG

Blake's overall body of work is probably a wee bit better than Hill's. Tough to overlook a 7-1 shellacking and the overall record of Hill against tourney teams. IMHO....
And why is EP at 2?

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