Seeding for State

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Joe2015
Posts: 240
Joined: Tue Feb 17, 2015 2:50 pm

Seeding for State

Post by Joe2015 » Thu Feb 27, 2020 9:50 pm

Guesses for the seeding at state?
A:
1 - Hermantown
2/3- SCC and Warroad (could go either way)
4 - Mahtomedi (if they win)
5 - Delano
Monticello moves into the 5 spot if Mahtomedi gets upset

AA:
1 - Andover
2 - Eden Prairie
3 - Blake
4 - Moorhead
5 - Hill-Murray (if they win)
A Hill loss and who knows for the 5th seed
And 2 thru 4 aren't locks: could see them being inter-changed

kpryan88
Posts: 194
Joined: Sat Feb 10, 2007 9:06 pm

Re: Seeding for State

Post by kpryan88 » Thu Feb 27, 2020 9:55 pm

Joe2015 wrote:
Thu Feb 27, 2020 9:50 pm
Guesses for the seeding at state?
A:
1 - Hermantown
2/3- SCC and Warroad (could go either way)
4 - Mahtomedi (if they win)
5 - Delano
Monticello moves into the 5 spot if Mahtomedi gets upset

AA:
1 - Andover
2 - Eden Prairie
3 - Blake
4 - Moorhead
5 - Hill-Murray (if they win)
A Hill loss and who knows for the 5th seed
And 2 thru 4 aren't locks: could see them being inter-changed
I think a Hill win will make seeding really interesting. I know the final rankings, Hill was the team ranked the lowest out of these 5, but they beat Blake and Moorhead. I’m not saying they should be ahead of these 2 teams, but there could be a solid argument to put them at 3, 4, or 5. A WBL win tomorrow night solidified the top 4.

ryguyMN
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Location: Western WI

Re: Seeding for State

Post by ryguyMN » Thu Feb 27, 2020 9:56 pm

Joe2015 wrote:
Thu Feb 27, 2020 9:50 pm
AA:
1 - Andover
2 - Eden Prairie
3 - Blake
4 - Moorhead
5 - Hill-Murray (if they win)
A Hill loss and who knows for the 5th seed
And 2 thru 4 aren't locks: could see them being inter-changed
Being that Blake and EP are close together in the rankings and with Blake’s head to head win (tiebreaker), I’d give them the 2 seed over EP.
Ryan

NorthernHockey12
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Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2020 2:44 pm

Re: Seeding for State

Post by NorthernHockey12 » Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:00 pm

Although I don’t know if it’ll happen I think Warroad has a good argument for #1 seed in the A tournament. 3 wins against a top ranked EGF, and a head to head win over SCC along with the best overall record in the state at 26-2. Not saying it’ll happen but I think that shouldn’t be overlooked. I think they definitely should get the #2 if the #1 goes to Hermantown.

TheNightman
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Re: Seeding for State

Post by TheNightman » Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:05 pm

1. Andover
2. Blake
3. EP
4. Moorhead
5. Hill if they win Lakeville South if they don't

LASERBLUE135
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Location: Richfield

Re: Seeding for State

Post by LASERBLUE135 » Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:09 pm

Based on the last few years, the seeding doesn’t follow who beat who. It’s usually most dangerous team ranked highest. Andover will be 1, EP 2, Blake 3. Those spots are locked.

goldy313
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Joined: Tue Mar 05, 2002 11:56 am

Re: Seeding for State

Post by goldy313 » Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:25 pm

TheNightman wrote:
Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:05 pm
1. Andover
2. Blake
3. EP
4. Moorhead
5. Hill if they win Lakeville South if they don't
I have seen South twice in a week, they are lucky to even make it. I was high on them all year but after the playoff run the South Suburban had and that South struggled mightily with Century and Hastings I can’t see them getting a seed.

I agree with Laserblue, how you are playing now matters for state seeding, where I think sections is more of a how your entire season has been.

I think the top 3 are locks but not so sure in what order, Moorhead should be 4 but could be 5 if Hill Murray wins, not that it matters.

karl(east)
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Contact:

Re: Seeding for State

Post by karl(east) » Thu Feb 27, 2020 11:11 pm

LASERBLUE135 wrote:
Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:09 pm
Based on the last few years, the seeding doesn’t follow who beat who. It’s usually most dangerous team ranked highest. Andover will be 1, EP 2, Blake 3. Those spots are locked.
Recent evidence would suggest this, yes. (And Eden Prairie, incidentally, seems to be the one that gets the benefit of the doubt more often than not.) Even though Hill beat Moorhead I'd argue the Spuds' season was solid enough to claim the 4-seed if Hill wins, though those two would still play in the quarters. If Hill loses it gets tough; 5 on paper should go to South but as others have noted they weren't exactly compelling in sections.

Class A is a little more cut and dry on the transitive property side: Warroad beat SCC who tied Hermantown, so I'd argue the Warriors do have a very good case for the top seed. We'll see if Hermantown's reputation is enough to claim it, though. Delano/Mahtomedi (assuming the Zephyrs win tomorrow) should be a lock for the nightcap, though Monticello will be one of the better unseeded A teams in recent memory.

goldy313
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Joined: Tue Mar 05, 2002 11:56 am

Re: Seeding for State

Post by goldy313 » Thu Feb 27, 2020 11:18 pm

Hermantown losing late in the season to Grand Rapids, who lost to Elk River, and to South who struggled against teams ranked fairly low don’t help the Hawks case for #1 a whole lot.

Sparlimb
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Joined: Tue Feb 05, 2002 7:11 am

Re: Seeding for State

Post by Sparlimb » Thu Feb 27, 2020 11:24 pm

kpryan88 wrote:
Thu Feb 27, 2020 9:55 pm
Joe2015 wrote:
Thu Feb 27, 2020 9:50 pm
Guesses for the seeding at state?
A:
1 - Hermantown
2/3- SCC and Warroad (could go either way)
4 - Mahtomedi (if they win)
5 - Delano
Monticello moves into the 5 spot if Mahtomedi gets upset

AA:
1 - Andover
2 - Eden Prairie
3 - Blake
4 - Moorhead
5 - Hill-Murray (if they win)
A Hill loss and who knows for the 5th seed
And 2 thru 4 aren't locks: could see them being inter-changed
I think a Hill win will make seeding really interesting. I know the final rankings, Hill was the team ranked the lowest out of these 5, but they beat Blake and Moorhead. I’m not saying they should be ahead of these 2 teams, but there could be a solid argument to put them at 3, 4, or 5. A WBL win tomorrow night solidified the top 4.
Hill is 4-0-1 against AA State Tourney Teams. Not too shabby. I imagine EP is close to that.

WestMetro
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Re: Seeding for State

Post by WestMetro » Thu Feb 27, 2020 11:41 pm

TheNightman wrote:
Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:05 pm
1. Andover
2. Blake
3. EP
4. Moorhead
5. Hill if they win Lakeville South if they don't
Agree with this .

Section 8 guy
Posts: 538
Joined: Sun Jun 24, 2012 9:04 pm

Re: Seeding for State

Post by Section 8 guy » Thu Feb 27, 2020 11:43 pm

EP is actually 0-2-1 against state tourney teams.

To Spehars comments on Twitter......the 2-4 seeding is more complicated than people are giving it credit for when you look at the meaningful comparisons I think.

Bayside Tigers
Posts: 220
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Re: Seeding for State

Post by Bayside Tigers » Fri Feb 28, 2020 12:24 am

[Speaking specifically in AA] Is it just me or is St Thomas the only "upset" of this bracket?? Not much of an upset, is it? I admit I've always used Let's Play Hockey to base my general rankings (with a grain of salt of course, mostly thanks to Karl's persuasive insight, I may take his word ((Or rank)) over theirs). But using the LPH coach's poll as a measuring stick, sections 1, 2 (EP a 2 seed, but ranked 3rd in the state with top seed Prior Lake ranked 6th), 6, 7 and 8 all had the highest ranking team advance, 5 being a close call as Maple Grove was ranked 13th, and Blaine 12th, respectively. Leaving St Thomas being the lone supposed upset as a 5th seed ranked 19th. Where you at, Rosemount Irish??

Not including tomorrow's tilt featuring 8th ranked Hill Pios versus 18th Bears. The Bears having been previously ranked #1 previously this season...

Do this many top teams usually make it? I'm feeling like it leaves us with a higher caliber state tournament on deck... Or maybe the scarcity of the underdog isn't as uncommon as I'd think.

Blue Line
Posts: 28
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2019 9:27 am

Re: Seeding for State

Post by Blue Line » Fri Feb 28, 2020 4:30 am

TheNightman wrote:
Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:05 pm
1. Andover
2. Blake
3. EP
4. Moorhead
5. Hill if they win Lakeville South if they don't
I think EP is the 4th seed and if they are higher than that, they are getting the benefit of the doubt based on reputation. Part of that reputation is playing in the Lake Conference, which was down this year. Traditional powers Edina, Minnetonka and Wayzata, although good, just weren't as good as in past seasons, and the new teams added depth, but not to the overall difficulty of the conference (STMA's top line was fun to watch). Looking outside EP's conference schedule, what is their signature win? As someone else pointed out, EP is winless against the other State Tourney participants at 0-2-1 with their two losses coming against Moorhead and Blake, so I think their signature win was against BSM a couple of weeks ago. Assuming Hill wins their Section final, Moorhead's record against the other State Tourney teams would be 1-3 and Blake's would be 3-3 and both of them beat EP. One game doesn't make or break a season, but when I dig into the details, there isn't a compelling reason to have EP seeded higher than Moorhead (or Blake) and EP should be the 4th seed. If someone thinks higher, that is fine, but throwing out reputation and recognizable player names, what would be a reason, based on what has transpired on the ice, to seed EP higher than 4th?

Joe2015
Posts: 240
Joined: Tue Feb 17, 2015 2:50 pm

Re: Seeding for State

Post by Joe2015 » Fri Feb 28, 2020 5:50 am

Bayside Tigers wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 12:24 am
[Speaking specifically in AA] Is it just me or is St Thomas the only "upset" of this bracket?? Not much of an upset, is it? I admit I've always used Let's Play Hockey to base my general rankings (with a grain of salt of course, mostly thanks to Karl's persuasive insight, I may take his word ((Or rank)) over theirs). But using the LPH coach's poll as a measuring stick, sections 1, 2 (EP a 2 seed, but ranked 3rd in the state with top seed Prior Lake ranked 6th), 6, 7 and 8 all had the highest ranking team advance, 5 being a close call as Maple Grove was ranked 13th, and Blaine 12th, respectively. Leaving St Thomas being the lone supposed upset as a 5th seed ranked 19th. Where you at, Rosemount Irish??

Not including tomorrow's tilt featuring 8th ranked Hill Pios versus 18th Bears. The Bears having been previously ranked #1 previously this season...

Do this many top teams usually make it? I'm feeling like it leaves us with a higher caliber state tournament on deck... Or maybe the scarcity of the underdog isn't as uncommon as I'd think.
This is Karl's thoughts: (not an original idea by me) but with all the parity this season, nothing really feels like an upset.

As for seedings within the section, I'd say its about usual. It seems more seasons have 4 or 5 #1 seeds, a couple #2 seeds and maybe one more than was lower than a # 1 or #2. And thats how it played out. Although, seeing a 5 win their section is pretty rare from what I remember. (of course: some thought STA were pretty under-seeded to begin with). And hey: maybe we get a WBL upset tonight

Usthockey13
Posts: 563
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 12:52 pm

Re: Seeding for State

Post by Usthockey13 » Fri Feb 28, 2020 7:34 am

Also if you look at the past seasons it usually lines up with the let’s play hockey rankings. Not saying it will but usually goes that way. I know all the teams vote but no one really
Knows what goes on on the other end of the conference call

bardown27
Posts: 588
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2009 10:20 am

Re: Seeding for State

Post by bardown27 » Fri Feb 28, 2020 7:50 am

AA

If HM wins

1. Andover
2. Blake
3. EP
4. Moorhead
5. Hill

If WBL wins

1. Andover
2. Blake
3. EP
4. Moorhead
5. MG

A

If Mahtomedi wins

1. Warroad
2. Hermantown
3. SCC
4. Mahtomedi
5. Delano

If SSP wins

1. Warroad
2. Hermantown
3. SCC
4. Delano
5. Monticello

blueblood
Posts: 2497
Joined: Fri May 26, 2006 8:36 am

Re: Seeding for State

Post by blueblood » Fri Feb 28, 2020 8:09 am

Blake split with Andover to open the season.
Both Moorhead and Blake have wins over EP.
If Hill wins: they have a win over STA and I see it as:

1) Andover
2) Blake or Moorhead
3) Moorhead or Blake
4) Ep
5) Hill
Unseeded: Lakeville South, STA, MG

If WBL wins:

1) Andover
2) Blake or Moorhead
3) Moorhead or Blake
4) Ep
5) STA

Unseeded: Lakeville South, MG, WBL
Play Like a Champion Today

InThePipes
Posts: 521
Joined: Mon Mar 26, 2012 8:26 pm

Re: Seeding for State

Post by InThePipes » Fri Feb 28, 2020 9:04 am

The unseeded are then paired in their match-ups via a blind draw, is that how this works?

bardown27
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Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2009 10:20 am

Re: Seeding for State

Post by bardown27 » Fri Feb 28, 2020 9:06 am

InThePipes wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 9:04 am
The unseeded are then paired in their match-ups via a blind draw, is that how this works?
"Blind draw" yeah. Don't know how blind it is or not, but that's what they say.

Green and White Fan
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Re: Seeding for State

Post by Green and White Fan » Fri Feb 28, 2020 9:10 am

There is no way in Class A that Warroad shouldn't have the #1 seed. They beat Cathedral and Rapids, whom Hermantown lost to and they never lost a game to a Class A opponent all year. They also man handled a top 5 team in EGF last night. I see no argument for anyone but them as the #1 seed.
We've got 7 yes we do, we've got 7, how about you!

TTpuckster
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Joined: Wed Dec 27, 2006 8:26 am
Location: State of Hockey

Re: Seeding for State

Post by TTpuckster » Fri Feb 28, 2020 9:42 am

Green and White Fan wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 9:10 am
There is no way in Class A that Warroad shouldn't have the #1 seed. They beat Cathedral and Rapids, whom Hermantown lost to and they never lost a game to a Class A opponent all year. They also man handled a top 5 team in EGF last night. I see no argument for anyone but them as the #1 seed.
I agree with this.
Add the fact that the only class A team that EGF lost to was Warroad.
What is a Green Wave anyway?

hockey59
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Re: Seeding for State

Post by hockey59 » Fri Feb 28, 2020 9:46 am

Aside from Andover being the #1 seed and them “randomly drawing” (who is the MSHSL kidding) STA, don’t know what the other matchups will be. Has EP lost a game since Jackson Blake joined them on Jan 28th? Blake & Moorhead will be the other top 4 seeds. Should be some interesting quarterfinal match ups🏒☝️

hockey59
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Re: Seeding for State

Post by hockey59 » Fri Feb 28, 2020 9:49 am

blueblood wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 8:09 am
Blake split with Andover to open the season.
Both Moorhead and Blake have wins over EP.
If Hill wins: they have a win over STA and I see it as:

1) Andover
2) Blake or Moorhead
3) Moorhead or Blake
4) Ep
5) Hill
Unseeded: Lakeville South, STA, MG

If WBL wins:

1) Andover
2) Blake or Moorhead
3) Moorhead or Blake
4) Ep
5) STA

Unseeded: Lakeville South, MG, WBL
There’s not a snowballs chance in 🏒hell STA will be seeded 😂 My prediction is they draw the Huskies☝️

HSPuckFan96
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Joined: Tue Jan 22, 2019 12:09 pm

Re: Seeding for State

Post by HSPuckFan96 » Fri Feb 28, 2020 9:57 am

bardown27 wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 9:06 am
InThePipes wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 9:04 am
The unseeded are then paired in their match-ups via a blind draw, is that how this works?
"Blind draw" yeah. Don't know how blind it is or not, but that's what they say.
Agreed...have heard, from multiple sources, that the whole thing is seeded 1-8, but the MSHSL doesn't say that, they go 1-5 with the final three being drawn.

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