Section 8AA section projections

[elliott70]

QRF rank team sectin record overall record
No. 3 Moorhead (129.5) 7-1-1 17-4-1
No. 22 St. Michael-Albertville (96.5) 7-0-1 11-9-3
No. 23 Roseau (96.0) 5-4-1 15-8-1
No. 39 Rogers (77.4) 3-4-0 12-9-1
No. 40 St. Cloud (77.2) 3-4-1 14-8-1
No. 47 Brainerd (65.8 ) 3-4-2 9-11-3
No. 54 Buffalo (53.5) 3-7-0 5-17-0
No. 59 Bemidji (42.9) 1-8-0 3-19-1

Wednesday- February 12, 2020 - Seeding Coaches Vote

Projected Section ranking
1 Moorhead
2 StM-A
3 Roseau
4 Rogers
5 St Cloud
6 Brainerd
7 Buffalo
8 Bemijdi

Tuesday - February 18, 2020 - QF (higher seed)
Bemidji at Moorhead - Moorhead running time
St Cloud at Rogers - Rogers in OT

Buffalo at StM-A - StM-A by 4
Brainerd at Roseau - Roseau by 2

Saturday - February 22, 2020 - SF (higher seed)
Rogers at Moorhead - Moorhead by 5
Roseau at StM-A - StM-A in OT

Wednesday - February 26, 2020 - Finals (TBD)
StM-A vs Moorhead - Moorhead by 2

[Section 8 guy]

Good perspective on the Initial seeds. Well done Elliott.

[CornerBar]

I don’t understand how Roseau can get the 3 seed. If you did a blind resume look at the three teams and didn’t know that you were looking at “Roseau”, then I don’t see how you can give them the third seed.

The argument for the third seed is between Rogers, STC, and Roseau. They have all beaten each other so you cannot look at H2H. Instead you have to look at the overall body of work. The goal here is to eliminate the weakest of the three teams and then use H2H to determine who is better of the remaining two.

Here is how I break it down:

Roseau: They have been stumbling big time as of late. They are 3-5-1 in their last 9 games and that does not impress me. They are 1-3-1 against section opponents over that span as well with losses to STC, Moorhead, and STMA, and their lone win was against Bemidji. They went 1-0-1 against Brainerd, but the tie was the more recent result, and STC just beat Brainerd, so that hurts Roseau. They also lost to Buffalo this year in their lone game against them, and Rogers swept Buffalo. Their only impressive win in the section is over Moorhead two months ago, but they just lost to Moorhead now, which carries more weight than the win over them in December. I don’t think that they can point back to one game over two months ago as their only argument for the 3 seed and win it.

Rogers: Like I mentioned above, they swept Buffalo and Roseau and STC lost to them. They also beat STC a week after Roseau lost to them. The only thing that you can really knock them for is that they didn’t play Brainerd, which is really what complicates this even more.

St. Cloud: Their early season loss to Buffalo hurts their case in this argument, as Rogers beat them twice. They also went 1-0-1 against Brainerd, just like Roseau, but the tie was their second game of the year, and the win vs Brainerd was only a few weeks ago. They took Moorhead to OT which, IMO, is equally as impressive as splitting with Moorhead. They did beat Roseau who Rogers lost to.

Here is how I would seed it:

1. Moorhead
2. STMA

3. Rogers – Although I think they should be knocked for not playing Brainerd, I don’t think they will be. Their H2H win vs St. Cloud puts them ahead of them.

4. St. Cloud – They lose their argument for the 3 seed because of the loss to Buffalo as well. H2H they lost to Rogers so they can’t get the 3, and H2H they beat Roseau, so this is where they sit.

5. Roseau – They fall because of their recent struggles against section opponents. Their tie against Brainerd isn’t better than what STC did against them recently. Their loss to Buffalo and Rogers’ win vs Buffalo played a big part as well. I just don’t see how they can argue for the 3rd seed with only one win over Moorhead, that was two months ago, to hang their hat on. Overall, the worst body of work of the 3 teams.

6. Brainerd
7. Buffalo
8. Bemidji

[elliott70]

Rogers lost to Bemidji
No coach is voting them 3 by itself.

Moorhead
STMA
Brainerd
Bemidji
Buffalo
Will have Roseau at 3

[elliott70]

The transient property sounds good but most coaches don’t use it.

[jdh]

Let’s hope the section final will be at the Sanford Center. We’ve had a couple of dandies the past two years.

[jdh]

Let’s hope the section final is at the Sanford Center. We’ve had a couple of dandies the past two years.

[7TIMECHAMPS]

I don’t understand how Roseau can get the 3 seed. If you did a blind resume look at the three teams and didn’t know that you were looking at “Roseau”, then I don’t see how you can give them the third seed.

The argument for the third seed is between Rogers, STC, and Roseau. They have all beaten each other so you cannot look at H2H. Instead you have to look at the overall body of work. The goal here is to eliminate the weakest of the three teams and then use H2H to determine who is better of the remaining two.

Here is how I break it down:

Roseau: They have been stumbling big time as of late. They are 3-5-1 in their last 9 games and that does not impress me. They are 1-3-1 against section opponents over that span as well with losses to STC, Moorhead, and STMA, and their lone win was against Bemidji. They went 1-0-1 against Brainerd, but the tie was the more recent result, and STC just beat Brainerd, so that hurts Roseau. They also lost to Buffalo this year in their lone game against them, and Rogers swept Buffalo. Their only impressive win in the section is over Moorhead two months ago, but they just lost to Moorhead now, which carries more weight than the win over them in December. I don’t think that they can point back to one game over two months ago as their only argument for the 3 seed and win it.

Rogers: Like I mentioned above, they swept Buffalo and Roseau and STC lost to them. They also beat STC a week after Roseau lost to them. The only thing that you can really knock them for is that they didn’t play Brainerd, which is really what complicates this even more.

St. Cloud: Their early season loss to Buffalo hurts their case in this argument, as Rogers beat them twice. They also went 1-0-1 against Brainerd, just like Roseau, but the tie was their second game of the year, and the win vs Brainerd was only a few weeks ago. They took Moorhead to OT which, IMO, is equally as impressive as splitting with Moorhead. They did beat Roseau who Rogers lost to.

Here is how I would seed it:

1. Moorhead
2. STMA

3. Rogers – Although I think they should be knocked for not playing Brainerd, I don’t think they will be. Their H2H win vs St. Cloud puts them ahead of them.

4. St. Cloud – They lose their argument for the 3 seed because of the loss to Buffalo as well. H2H they lost to Rogers so they can’t get the 3, and H2H they beat Roseau, so this is where they sit.

5. Roseau – They fall because of their recent struggles against section opponents. Their tie against Brainerd isn’t better than what STC did against them recently. Their loss to Buffalo and Rogers’ win vs Buffalo played a big part as well. I just don’t see how they can argue for the 3rd seed with only one win over Moorhead, that was two months ago, to hang their hat on. Overall, the worst body of work of the 3 teams.

6. Brainerd
7. Buffalo
8. Bemidji

Wow so many inconsistencies in your logic I don’t know where to start. You want an unbiased look at the body of work of all of the teams? Perfect because pagestat and qrf both do that and Rogers is t even close to Roseau. Roseau is 3 in both.

Roseau can’t hang their hat on an early season section win against Moorhead? Rogers has three section wins and 2 were December 21st or earlier(both Buffalo). So wouldn’t that kind of mean you are “hanging your hat” on one win against St Cloud?

Rogers went 2-0 against Brainerd and Roseau went 0-1? Oh well Roseau went 2-0 against Bemidji and Rogers went 0-1. So same thing?

Roseau is 3-5-1 in their last 9? Rogers is 5-4 with wins against Spring Lake Park, Anoka, and Coon Rapids? A couple of them very narrow wins. Two goal victory against Coon Rapids? Roseau has two wins over Warroad (who beat Moorhead remember?) Those two wins alone are more impressive than any win on Rogers resume. Not to mention Rogers has been put into run time multiple times this year. Roseau? None. So if a team like Stma votes rogers(who they beat by 6 goals) ahead of Roseau (who outshot them 50-23, and they know they stole that one) then sorry the bias you are implying has went the other way.

Body of work is not even close between Rogers and Roseau. Not to mention Roseau has the head to head. If St Cloud gets the 3 then fine they have a better body of work than Rogers and they have HTH with Roseau. But idk if I even need to argue. Computer systems that have no bias are pretty clear it’s not close. Like 30 spots between Roseau and Rogers in pagestat and around 20 on qrf.

[northwoods oldtimer]

I don’t understand how Roseau can get the 3 seed. If you did a blind resume look at the three teams and didn’t know that you were looking at “Roseau”, then I don’t see how you can give them the third seed.

The argument for the third seed is between Rogers, STC, and Roseau. They have all beaten each other so you cannot look at H2H. Instead you have to look at the overall body of work. The goal here is to eliminate the weakest of the three teams and then use H2H to determine who is better of the remaining two.

Here is how I break it down:

Roseau: They have been stumbling big time as of late. They are 3-5-1 in their last 9 games and that does not impress me. They are 1-3-1 against section opponents over that span as well with losses to STC, Moorhead, and STMA, and their lone win was against Bemidji. They went 1-0-1 against Brainerd, but the tie was the more recent result, and STC just beat Brainerd, so that hurts Roseau. They also lost to Buffalo this year in their lone game against them, and Rogers swept Buffalo. Their only impressive win in the section is over Moorhead two months ago, but they just lost to Moorhead now, which carries more weight than the win over them in December. I don’t think that they can point back to one game over two months ago as their only argument for the 3 seed and win it.

Rogers: Like I mentioned above, they swept Buffalo and Roseau and STC lost to them. They also beat STC a week after Roseau lost to them. The only thing that you can really knock them for is that they didn’t play Brainerd, which is really what complicates this even more.

St. Cloud: Their early season loss to Buffalo hurts their case in this argument, as Rogers beat them twice. They also went 1-0-1 against Brainerd, just like Roseau, but the tie was their second game of the year, and the win vs Brainerd was only a few weeks ago. They took Moorhead to OT which, IMO, is equally as impressive as splitting with Moorhead. They did beat Roseau who Rogers lost to.

Here is how I would seed it:

1. Moorhead
2. STMA

3. Rogers – Although I think they should be knocked for not playing Brainerd, I don’t think they will be. Their H2H win vs St. Cloud puts them ahead of them.

4. St. Cloud – They lose their argument for the 3 seed because of the loss to Buffalo as well. H2H they lost to Rogers so they can’t get the 3, and H2H they beat Roseau, so this is where they sit.

5. Roseau – They fall because of their recent struggles against section opponents. Their tie against Brainerd isn’t better than what STC did against them recently. Their loss to Buffalo and Rogers’ win vs Buffalo played a big part as well. I just don’t see how they can argue for the 3rd seed with only one win over Moorhead, that was two months ago, to hang their hat on. Overall, the worst body of work of the 3 teams.

6. Brainerd
7. Buffalo
8. Bemidji

Guys, what is going on with Roseau? Injuries? When I saw them in December I figured they were a lock for St. Paul.

[Green and White Fan]

1. Moorhead
2. STMA
3. Roseau
4. St. Cloud
5. Brainerd
6. Rogers
7. Buffalo
8. Bemidji

Rogers has one section win against St. Cloud and two against the seven seed. The northern half of the section beats themselves up playing each other twice. Rogers plays Buffalo twice??? They can't play Brainerd at all??? What would their section record look like if they played some of the top teams twice? At least play the close ones twice like we do up north!

[armhockey]

Careful with your shot at Buffalo... Your Rams did get beaten by the Bison

[Green and White Fan]

Wasn't a shot at Buffalo. A previous poster ranked Buffalo 7th, but puts Rogers at third because they have 3 section wins with 2 against the team he ranked 7th, Buffalo. Just pointing out that his reasoning seems off.

[Section 8 guy]

It’s pretty tough to only focus on blemishes when the teams play such different in section schedules. Some teams play 10 games and some play 7 or 8. In my mind, for the in section snapshot, tie goes to the team that played more section games. Especially if they played tougher games within their 10. Of course overall body of work should come into play significantly as well, with credit for quality wins and records vs common opponents.

[bardown27]

Looks like seedings are out for 8AA on MSHSL bracket.

1. Moorhead
2. STMA
3. Roseau
4. St. Cloud
5. Rogers
6. Brainerd
7. Buffalo
8. Bemidji

[CornerBar]

I don’t understand how Roseau can get the 3 seed. If you did a blind resume look at the three teams and didn’t know that you were looking at “Roseau”, then I don’t see how you can give them the third seed.

The argument for the third seed is between Rogers, STC, and Roseau. They have all beaten each other so you cannot look at H2H. Instead you have to look at the overall body of work. The goal here is to eliminate the weakest of the three teams and then use H2H to determine who is better of the remaining two.

Here is how I break it down:

Roseau: They have been stumbling big time as of late. They are 3-5-1 in their last 9 games and that does not impress me. They are 1-3-1 against section opponents over that span as well with losses to STC, Moorhead, and STMA, and their lone win was against Bemidji. They went 1-0-1 against Brainerd, but the tie was the more recent result, and STC just beat Brainerd, so that hurts Roseau. They also lost to Buffalo this year in their lone game against them, and Rogers swept Buffalo. Their only impressive win in the section is over Moorhead two months ago, but they just lost to Moorhead now, which carries more weight than the win over them in December. I don’t think that they can point back to one game over two months ago as their only argument for the 3 seed and win it.

Rogers: Like I mentioned above, they swept Buffalo and Roseau and STC lost to them. They also beat STC a week after Roseau lost to them. The only thing that you can really knock them for is that they didn’t play Brainerd, which is really what complicates this even more.

St. Cloud: Their early season loss to Buffalo hurts their case in this argument, as Rogers beat them twice. They also went 1-0-1 against Brainerd, just like Roseau, but the tie was their second game of the year, and the win vs Brainerd was only a few weeks ago. They took Moorhead to OT which, IMO, is equally as impressive as splitting with Moorhead. They did beat Roseau who Rogers lost to.

Here is how I would seed it:

1. Moorhead
2. STMA

3. Rogers – Although I think they should be knocked for not playing Brainerd, I don’t think they will be. Their H2H win vs St. Cloud puts them ahead of them.

4. St. Cloud – They lose their argument for the 3 seed because of the loss to Buffalo as well. H2H they lost to Rogers so they can’t get the 3, and H2H they beat Roseau, so this is where they sit.

5. Roseau – They fall because of their recent struggles against section opponents. Their tie against Brainerd isn’t better than what STC did against them recently. Their loss to Buffalo and Rogers’ win vs Buffalo played a big part as well. I just don’t see how they can argue for the 3rd seed with only one win over Moorhead, that was two months ago, to hang their hat on. Overall, the worst body of work of the 3 teams.

6. Brainerd
7. Buffalo
8. Bemidji

Wow so many inconsistencies in your logic I don’t know where to start. You want an unbiased look at the body of work of all of the teams? Perfect because pagestat and qrf both do that and Rogers is t even close to Roseau. Roseau is 3 in both.

Roseau can’t hang their hat on an early season section win against Moorhead? Rogers has three section wins and 2 were December 21st or earlier(both Buffalo). So wouldn’t that kind of mean you are “hanging your hat” on one win against St Cloud?

Rogers went 2-0 against Brainerd and Roseau went 0-1? Oh well Roseau went 2-0 against Bemidji and Rogers went 0-1. So same thing?

Roseau is 3-5-1 in their last 9? Rogers is 5-4 with wins against Spring Lake Park, Anoka, and Coon Rapids? A couple of them very narrow wins. Two goal victory against Coon Rapids? Roseau has two wins over Warroad (who beat Moorhead remember?) Those two wins alone are more impressive than any win on Rogers resume. Not to mention Rogers has been put into run time multiple times this year. Roseau? None. So if a team like Stma votes rogers(who they beat by 6 goals) ahead of Roseau (who outshot them 50-23, and they know they stole that one) then sorry the bias you are implying has went the other way.

Body of work is not even close between Rogers and Roseau. Not to mention Roseau has the head to head. If St Cloud gets the 3 then fine they have a better body of work than Rogers and they have HTH with Roseau. But idk if I even need to argue. Computer systems that have no bias are pretty clear it’s not close. Like 30 spots between Roseau and Rogers in pagestat and around 20 on qrf.

You bring up some good points and I you’re right I did have some oversights with Rogers. The main purpose of my post was to just point out that I didn’t think Roseau had a right to be the 3 seed. I wasn’t trying to hype up Rogers by any means. In hindsight I think I would have rather had Roseau the 4 and Rogers the 5, but it is what it is at this point.

Turns out it didn’t matter though as Roseau still got the 3 seed, which I don’t understand.

[TheNightman]

What other sections are released today? Just 8A?

[Section 8 guy]

Roseau is 5-4-1 in the section. The next best in section record is 3-4 and the other two teams under consideration played noticeably easier in section schedules. The teams in the mess all have fairly similar overall records, Rogers a notch below, but Roseau has noticeably better quality wins than the other two..

If SC had beaten Rogers their 4-3-1 record would have been almost identical to Roseau’s, their overall body of work would have been similar but with less quality wins and they would have had the head to head win. With the loss to Rogers they now have a losing record in the section to a weaker in section schedule and a less impressive overall body of work due to lack of quality wins. All they have is head to head. That’s not enough to overcome the inferior in section performance. SC lost the 3 seed in that last game vs Rogers I’m afraid.

I don’t see Rogers really being in the discussion for the three seed the more I look at it. Worse section record than the Rams, worse overall record, fewer quality wins, lost head to head.

Just my take but actually seems pretty straightforward to me.

[elliott70]

What other sections are released today? Just 8A?

Tomorrow (Thursday
or maybe Friday

Today's meeting was cancelled because of weather.

[7TIMECHAMPS]

Roseau is 5-4-1 in the section. The next best in section record is 3-4 and the other two teams under consideration played noticeably easier in section schedules. The teams in the mess all have fairly similar overall records, Rogers a notch below, but Roseau has noticeably better quality wins than the other two..

If SC had beaten Rogers their 4-3-1 record would have been almost identical to Roseau’s, their overall body of work would have been similar but with less quality wins and they would have had the head to head win. With the loss to Rogers they now have a losing record in the section to a weaker in section schedule and a less impressive overall body of work due to lack of quality wins. All they have is head to head. That’s not enough to overcome the inferior in section performance. SC lost the 3 seed in that last game vs Rogers I’m afraid.

I don’t see Rogers really being in the discussion for the three seed the more I look at it. Worse section record than the Rams, worse overall record, fewer quality wins, lost head to head.

Just my take but actually seems pretty straightforward to me.

This is pretty much right on. I wouldn't have been upset if St Cloud had gotten the 3, as I thought there was a case for both. The coaches weighted body of work and section performance heavier than HTH. It will be interesting to see where each coach voted.

To be honest I don't know that it matters that much. Both teams still get a home playoff game. I am not sure that Roseau gets the more desirable QF opponent as Brainerd is 44 in pagestat and Rogers is 61. My eye test would have agreed with pagestat and I would have taken Rogers if given the choice. And from there, if things fall like they are supposed to, each team will have to beat Moorhead and STMA. For Roseau it will be STMA on the road and Moorhead neutral. For St Cloud it will be the other way around. Maybe a slight advantage getting Moorhead at neutral since that is the bigger hill to climb. But all in all I don't know that there is any massive advantage in the 3 vs 4 this year. And every team will get the chance to prove they are better than where they were seeded.

[Section 8 guy]

Solid take 7. Well said.

[Puckguy19]

What other sections are released today? Just 8A?

Tomorrow (Thursday
or maybe Friday

Today's meeting was cancelled because of weather.

RamsHockey posted:
Section 8AA Boys Hockey Seedings:
#1 - Moorhead
#2 - St. Michael-Albertville
#3 - Roseau
#4 - St. Cloud
#5 - Rogers
#6 - Brainerd
#7 - Buffalo
#8 - Bemidji

[elliott70]

8AA is done by phone conference
8A is by meeting

[gitter]

Well interesting section for sure. Roseau squeaks by Brainerd and St. Cloud took it to Rogers. Moorhead with a nail-biter in Bemidji. Should be an interesting couple of games on Saturday.

[Green and White Fan]

I believe Rogers out shot St. Cloud and actually tied the game at 4, but then the goal was disallowed?? It didn't appear that anybody really took it to anybody last night. The days of 8AA quarter finals being blow out cakewalks for the high seeds have definitely passed.

[Joe2015]

I believe Rogers out shot St. Cloud and actually tied the game at 4, but then the goal was disallowed?? It didn't appear that anybody really took it to anybody last night. The days of 8AA quarter finals being blow out cakewalks for the high seeds have definitely passed.

There was a shot that the goalie dived for to the his right. Rogers started celebrating but it was immediately waived off. They held a conference among the refs and went and talked to goal judge. The call of no goal stood.

Personally, from my angle I have no idea if it crossed or not.