Section 4A Parity?

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stateofhawkey
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Section 4A Parity?

Post by stateofhawkey » Tue Feb 04, 2020 11:08 am

I haven't seen any threads about this section yet, so I'll start one. In my opinion, it could be viewed as having quite a bit of parity. Normally, as we all know, Mahtomedi's the lock for this section. But in light of recent results and how surprising some teams have been, I think this year could be different. Here's how I would seed things as of today:

1. Mahtomedi
2. Gentry Academy
3. St. Paul Johnson
4. Tartan
5. South St. Paul
6. Simley
7. St. Paul Academy
8. Red Wing
9. St. Paul HIghland Park
10. Henry Sibley

Yes, I talked about parity and then put Mahtomedi at #1 anyways. In my defense, I did say a bit of parity. Mahtomedi losing to Tartan a few weeks ago was huge. They also barely snuck past Simley recently, and SPA earlier in the year. Gentry is being talked about in a lot of these threads, as they should be. I'm not 100% sold on them, because they don't have the toughest schedule. and they are sneaking past Tartan, SPA (twice) and Henry Sibley. They also have had very good days, beating teams like Armstrong, clobbering Northfield, and Owatonna. It's a shame they don't play Mahtomedi in the regular season, because I have a feeling that'd be a very good one. I give Mahtomedi the edge because of more significant wins, but you never know until the game is played.

As for the rest: Johnson was looking very convincing before the slip-up against South St. Paul. I think that also shows that on a good day SSP can compete with the better teams. Johnson's win over Gentry was a huge one. Tartan is their usual roller-coaster selves, but have proven they can compete with Mahtomedi on their best day. The problem is their roller-coaster also includes splits with both SSP and Simley. SPA kinda hangs around, but can't quite get the key wins they need to move up. Red Wing gets the 8 spot because they have a more difficult schedule than Highland and beat Sibley head-to-head. Highland also beat Sibley.

Stang5280
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Re: Section 4A Parity?

Post by Stang5280 » Tue Feb 04, 2020 4:18 pm

Looks pretty good and well-reasoned, though I would personally have Johnson as the #2 based on the head-to-head result over Gentry. Johnson is 5-1 in section play, and Gentry is 4-1, so that is basically a wash. Johnson only has Highland Park left, while Gentry still has Simley and SSP on the schedule. So there is still a chance for the Stars to pick up a second section loss.

It’s pretty much semantics since the quarters are at Aldrich (I believe still?) and the 6/7 seeds are largely interchangeable. I foresee these two teams will be seeing one another again in the section semis.

Puck8
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Re: Section 4A Parity?

Post by Puck8 » Tue Feb 04, 2020 4:33 pm

Good post. Agree that parity is pretty much the theme. But one thing is for sure - this is not the same Gentry team that Mahtomedi beat in the playoffs last year. Not saying they have the upper hand, but it will be a great game if they should meet.

The others have been beating each other up so 4-8 are almost interchangeable. Will make for some interesting semi’s.

Thanks for starting this!

Puck8
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Re: Section 4A Parity?

Post by Puck8 » Wed Feb 05, 2020 12:29 pm

Puck8 wrote:
Tue Feb 04, 2020 4:33 pm
Good post. Agree that parity is pretty much the theme. But one thing is for sure - this is not the same Gentry team that Mahtomedi beat in the playoffs last year. Not saying they have the upper hand, but it will be a great game if they should meet.

The others have been beating each other up so 4-8 are almost interchangeable. Will make for some interesting semi’s.

Thanks for starting this!
And I agree with Hawkey’s seeding prediction as things are now. If the top three all win-out, it probably stays this way. But if Mahto loses 1 and Johnson & Gentry don’t, I don’t see how they maintain the #1. They’d have 9 losses with 3-4 of them being considered of the Bad variety. Gentry and Johnson may not have the same SOS as Mahto, but they’re putting up W’s while Mahto has stumbled against that higher schedule as well as a couple non-elite teams. Gentry would get the nod, in my opinion. But realistically, with the aforementioned parity, one place probably doesn’t matter in this section :D

PaynePhalenGuy
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Re: Section 4A Parity?

Post by PaynePhalenGuy » Mon Feb 10, 2020 9:55 am

Johnson's top scorer, Blayde Pogreba, left the Greenway game on Friday with a knee injury, and missed the Saturday game against Hibbing as well. It sounds like it's just a contusion, but an MRI scheduled for tomorrow (presumably, he'll also miss the game against Minneapolis tomorrow) will tell the story of Johnson's playoff chances. If he can't go next week, they're cooked.

stateofhawkey
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Re: Section 4A Parity?

Post by stateofhawkey » Mon Feb 10, 2020 2:36 pm

I'll for sure be keeping an eye on Gentry vs. SSP tonight. Gentry should be expected to win, but I don't count SSP out of any of their section games. It could be a close one, and if SSP wins might shake things up. Probably one of the more telling games as the rest of the regular season goes.

Puck8
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Re: Section 4A Parity?

Post by Puck8 » Mon Feb 10, 2020 3:51 pm

stateofhawkey wrote:
Mon Feb 10, 2020 2:36 pm
I'll for sure be keeping an eye on Gentry vs. SSP tonight. Gentry should be expected to win, but I don't count SSP out of any of their section games. It could be a close one, and if SSP wins might shake things up. Probably one of the more telling games as the rest of the regular season goes.
Agreed.
The 2 seed has to be Gentry’s if they win. Mahtomedi seemingly has the 1, but does that change if they lose one of their last 2 (unlikely, but...)? Johnson 3, then it’s a hodgepodge of 3-4 teams capable of an upset. This is going to be fun to see unfold.

Puck8
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Re: Section 4A Parity?

Post by Puck8 » Tue Feb 11, 2020 6:58 pm

Gentry 5
SSP 2

Assuming Gentry, Mahtomedi and Johnson all win their remaining games, does Gentry have enough to take #1? Does Johnson have enough for #2?

Solid wins (not necessarily elite, just solid):
Mahto - SPA, Hastings, Monticello, SSPx2, Northfield, Alexandria, STA, Hill, Breck. Total 10

Gentry - Century, Armstrong, SPAx2, Northfield, Owatonna, Mankato East, SSP. Total 8

Johnson - TRF, Detroit Lakes, SPA, Gentry. Maybe add Kittson and Red Lake Falls but those are a stretch due to SoS. Total 4. Benefit of doubt - 6.

Notable losses
Mahto - Tartan
Gentry - I don’t see any. All losses are against teams with solid +.500 records
Johnson - MPLS, Greenway.

QRF
Gentry 6
Mahto - 7
Johnson - 12

Does 4A use QRF?
Regarding Johnson, I don’t believe their HTH OT win against Gentry is enough to offset the fewer quality wins and the eyebrow raising losses.

I don’t mean to ignore the rest, but only have so much time and frankly, the next 4 seem to be interchangeable but all are capable of an upset.

This all said, this will be an entertaining section with some possible new blood prevailing.

stateofhawkey
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Re: Section 4A Parity?

Post by stateofhawkey » Wed Feb 12, 2020 1:16 pm

Puck8 wrote:
Tue Feb 11, 2020 6:58 pm
Gentry 5
SSP 2

Assuming Gentry, Mahtomedi and Johnson all win their remaining games, does Gentry have enough to take #1? Does Johnson have enough for #2?

Solid wins (not necessarily elite, just solid):
Mahto - SPA, Hastings, Monticello, SSPx2, Northfield, Alexandria, STA, Hill, Breck. Total 10

Gentry - Century, Armstrong, SPAx2, Northfield, Owatonna, Mankato East, SSP. Total 8

Johnson - TRF, Detroit Lakes, SPA, Gentry. Maybe add Kittson and Red Lake Falls but those are a stretch due to SoS. Total 4. Benefit of doubt - 6.

Notable losses
Mahto - Tartan
Gentry - I don’t see any. All losses are against teams with solid +.500 records
Johnson - MPLS, Greenway.

QRF
Gentry 6
Mahto - 7
Johnson - 12

Does 4A use QRF?
Regarding Johnson, I don’t believe their HTH OT win against Gentry is enough to offset the fewer quality wins and the eyebrow raising losses.

I don’t mean to ignore the rest, but only have so much time and frankly, the next 4 seem to be interchangeable but all are capable of an upset.

This all said, this will be an entertaining section with some possible new blood prevailing.
I couldn't have put it better myself. I'm not sure if 4A goes by the QRF or not, but I sure hope they don't. I think Mahtomedi's solid wins outweigh Gentry's, and the notable loss to Tartan could be written off as a fluke. Not that Tartan's not a decent team, because they are. I just think that Mahtomedi probably beats them 8 or 9 times out of 10. In any case, most of the questions are simply a "we'll have to wait and see" sort of thing. It does sort of feel like a three horse race at this point though. Johnson and Gentry would be a great rematch in the semifinals, and Mahtomedi certainly wouldn't be able to take Tartan lightly.

stateofhawkey
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Re: Section 4A Parity?

Post by stateofhawkey » Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:45 am

By the way, I don't know if it had gone unmentioned but it looks like Mahtomedi got Hagstrom back recently. That's fantastic timing for them, and should make them all the more dominant the rest of the way and into sections.

Puck8
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Re: Section 4A Parity?

Post by Puck8 » Sun Feb 16, 2020 9:36 pm

1) Mahtomedi
2) Johnson
3) Gentry
4) Tartan
5) Simley
6) South St Paul
7) SPA
8 ) Sibley
9) Red Wing
10) Highland Park

Johnson seeded over Gentry is notable but without much consequence. Mahtomedi continues as favorite but it’s just not as clear cut as previous years. The possible Johnson/Gentry semi would be a great game. But the others will have something to say about that first. This will be fun to watch.

stateofhawkey
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Re: Section 4A Parity?

Post by stateofhawkey » Tue Feb 18, 2020 9:40 am

Puck8 wrote:
Sun Feb 16, 2020 9:36 pm
1) Mahtomedi
2) Johnson
3) Gentry
4) Tartan
5) Simley
6) South St Paul
7) SPA
8 ) Sibley
9) Red Wing
10) Highland Park

Johnson seeded over Gentry is notable but without much consequence. Mahtomedi continues as favorite but it’s just not as clear cut as previous years. The possible Johnson/Gentry semi would be a great game. But the others will have something to say about that first. This will be fun to watch.
It almost came out what I was predicting. With just a few swaps. I would love to get the committee's reasoning behind putting Johnson ahead of Gentry; my guess is the head-to-head had much to do with it. I agree with you, the Gentry/Johnson Semi rematch would be quite something. But even that quarterfinal South St. Paul/Gentry matchup has potential, with SSP looking to get revenge on what was a fairly close game. Whoever Mahtomedi plays in the Semis won't go down quietly either I suspect (assuming they have little trouble with their QF matchup.)

Puck8
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Re: Section 4A Parity?

Post by Puck8 » Tue Feb 18, 2020 12:52 pm

The bottom part of the bracket could go 1 of 4 different ways, honestly. SSP, SPA, SPJ and GA are all capable of beating each other. If Tartan advances, it will be interesting to see how/Mahto handles them. Upset is possible, but I doubt it would happen again in this setting.

Johnson over Gentry seed had to be HTH based. But I thought HTH was primarily used as a tiebreaker. My biased opinion is that GA had more quality wins, although SPJ did beat TRF and Gentry lost to them. But I can’t imagine that would be enough as it was very early for both teams. Regardless, it didn’t change much of either team’s path.

In the final, Mahto will obviously be favored, but we will find out by how much once we see how the lower teams proceed through. Definitely not as big of a gap to Mahto as previous years and whoever comes out of the lower bracket will be tested hard.

Sparlimb
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Re: Section 4A Parity?

Post by Sparlimb » Fri Feb 21, 2020 10:43 pm

Sorry Govs. Johnson fails to show up tonight and loses bad to SPA...

Puck8
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Re: Section 4A Parity?

Post by Puck8 » Sat Feb 22, 2020 1:37 am

And SSP upends Gentry. Packers showed up ready and snuffed out the Gentry offense. Goalie played very well. Well done by them.

Tonight’s results pretty much validate the title of this thread 😀

stateofhawkey
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Re: Section 4A Parity?

Post by stateofhawkey » Mon Feb 24, 2020 9:40 am

Puck8 wrote:
Sat Feb 22, 2020 1:37 am
And SSP upends Gentry. Packers showed up ready and snuffed out the Gentry offense. Goalie played very well. Well done by them.

Tonight’s results pretty much validate the title of this thread 😀
No kidding! I don't know that I've ever seen a 6 and 7 seed both making it to the semifinals. My bracket is TOAST. Man, I never want this season of high school hockey to end. I'll have to make a note of this season somewhere to remember just how crazy it was. I had thought Gentry would lose in the semifinals to Johnson, maybe both teams were thinking the same thing and overlooked their quarterfinal opponents.

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