Section 6AA Seeding Discussion

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6AAGuy
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Section 6AA Seeding Discussion

Post by 6AAGuy » Fri Jan 31, 2020 7:35 am

I posted this on Last Night's Games Thread but thought it interesting enough to create its own Topic:

Too much action left to Seed a #1 in 6AA. Right now here's the landscape for #1 seed in 6AA:
--Blake is done with Section play and stands 3-2 (with losses to Wayz and BSM); Beat CDH head to head, making a case for #1
--BSM is 3-1-1 (loss to CDH and tie Wayz)--if they beat SLP (a big IF) they'd be 4-1-1 and beating Blake head to head they make a strong bid for #1
--CDH has only 2 Section games all year--beat BSM and lost to Blake. Strong non-section body of work makes case for #1, but loss last night was huge.

Questions:
--Could Blake be #1 over BSM with a lesser section record and loss h/h to BSM?
--Could CDH be #1 with only 2 Section games on the schedule and a loss h/h to Blake?
--Could BSM be #1 with the best record (again, assuming a W against SLP), but a loss h/h to Blake?

STMA seems to be heating up too--so these questions are important. And don't sleep on the Hornets--GIles is Mr. February/March, remember.........

WOW!!!!

Begin Discussing.....

Blue Line
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Re: Section 6AA Seeding Discussion

Post by Blue Line » Fri Jan 31, 2020 8:16 am

6AAGuy wrote:
Fri Jan 31, 2020 7:35 am
I posted this on Last Night's Games Thread but thought it interesting enough to create its own Topic:

Too much action left to Seed a #1 in 6AA. Right now here's the landscape for #1 seed in 6AA:
--Blake is done with Section play and stands 3-2 (with losses to Wayz and BSM); Beat CDH head to head, making a case for #1
--BSM is 3-1-1 (loss to CDH and tie Wayz)--if they beat SLP (a big IF) they'd be 4-1-1 and beating Blake head to head they make a strong bid for #1
--CDH has only 2 Section games all year--beat BSM and lost to Blake. Strong non-section body of work makes case for #1, but loss last night was huge.

Questions:
--Could Blake be #1 over BSM with a lesser section record and loss h/h to BSM?
--Could CDH be #1 with only 2 Section games on the schedule and a loss h/h to Blake?
--Could BSM be #1 with the best record (again, assuming a W against SLP), but a loss h/h to Blake?

STMA seems to be heating up too--so these questions are important. And don't sleep on the Hornets--GIles is Mr. February/March, remember.........

WOW!!!!

Begin Discussing.....
Head to head results should be a factor, but until each team in a section plays each other, it can’t be the end all be all. Since Edina/Wayzata play multiple times each year, should those games be given extra weight when seeding since they play more games against Section rivals?

For Cretin, I think their “body of work” is the least impressive of the top 5 teams in Section 6 because of their weak schedule - just the way it is with their conference. Their best win on the year is their win against BSM and last nights loss isn’t good. For BSM, their best win is against Blake - and that is a recent win. It will be interesting to see how they do against EP and STMA down the stretch since they would have additional common opponents with Blake. For Blake, they have beaten Andover (granted long ago), EP and Cretin. For me, Wayzata is also in the mix for the #1 seed, but they would need to run the table to have a chance. Edina is fighting for a home section game.

Lots of hockey to go, but if the season ended today, in my mind, Blake would be the #1 seed. Since there are two weeks left in the regular season, it doesn’t really matter.

Also, Section 6AA mentioned STMA, I would have them as the #2 seed in Section 8AA and would hate to have to play them since they do seem to be rolling.

marchmadness
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Re: Section 6AA Seeding Discussion

Post by marchmadness » Sun Feb 02, 2020 10:24 am

Do the Edina and Wayzata losses yesterday relegate them to the 4/5 quarterfinal game?

blueblood
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Re: Section 6AA Seeding Discussion

Post by blueblood » Sun Feb 02, 2020 10:27 am

The 5 seed in this section is going to be a tough out
Play Like a Champion Today

karl(east)
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Re: Section 6AA Seeding Discussion

Post by karl(east) » Sun Feb 02, 2020 3:19 pm

This is about as crazy as it gets. I had a logic chain built in the seeding portion of last week's rankings, but that really relied on Cretin being the top-ranked team in the section; now that they've lost to East Ridge, that's no longer the case.

Given its record, I don't see Edina escaping the 4/5 game. Their only section wins over anyone in the top 5 are over Wayzata. If they win the 3rd meeting, put the Hornets at 4 and Wayzata at 5. If the Trojans win it, Edina could well be 5 and Wayzata would be a mess, with their win over Blake and tie to Benilde but two losses to Edina. Since Blake, Cretin, and Benilde are stuck in a transitive property circular firing squad, I'd say go with overall rankings to separate them. If Wayzata beats Edina and finishes well, they could have a case to break the top 3, at least perhaps ahead of Benilde if they're higher in the rankings. Clear as mud.

MNHockeyFan
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Re: Section 6AA Seeding Discussion

Post by MNHockeyFan » Sun Feb 02, 2020 4:11 pm

karl(east) wrote:
Sun Feb 02, 2020 3:19 pm
This is about as crazy as it gets. I had a logic chain built in the seeding portion of last week's rankings, but that really relied on Cretin being the top-ranked team in the section; now that they've lost to East Ridge, that's no longer the case.

Given its record, I don't see Edina escaping the 4/5 game. Their only section wins over anyone in the top 5 are over Wayzata. If they win the 3rd meeting, put the Hornets at 4 and Wayzata at 5. If the Trojans win it, Edina could well be 5 and Wayzata would be a mess, with their win over Blake and tie to Benilde but two losses to Edina. Since Blake, Cretin, and Benilde are stuck in a transitive property circular firing squad, I'd say go with overall rankings to separate them. If Wayzata beats Edina and finishes well, they could have a case to break the top 3, at least perhaps ahead of Benilde if they're higher in the rankings. Clear as mud.
Me thinks karl(east) is grossly underpaid! :wink:

O-townClown
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Re: Section 6AA Seeding Discussion

Post by O-townClown » Sun Feb 02, 2020 11:14 pm

I've said for a while that Blake & Cretin are tracking for the top two. I don't think that's changed. If Edina beats Wayzata a 3rd time that makes Trojans 5, simple as that. If Wayzata wins I think Karl is right...they could pop in front of Benilde.

One thing we can't bank on is all of these teams winning the games we assume they should. Cretin dropped by East Ridge. Prior Lake on the wrong side of Eastview. Blake stubbing a toe at Burnsville. And so on. One knowledgeable observer remarked, "any time you start to like a team they disappoint you!" So true. 2019-20
Be kind. Rewind.

6AAGuy
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Re: Section 6AA Seeding Discussion

Post by 6AAGuy » Mon Feb 03, 2020 7:17 am

Can't see Blake above BSM when BSM beat them head to head. For the same reason, I can' see BSM above Cretin because Cretin beat them head to head.

Blue Line
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Re: Section 6AA Seeding Discussion

Post by Blue Line » Mon Feb 03, 2020 7:34 am

6AAGuy wrote:
Mon Feb 03, 2020 7:17 am
Can't see Blake above BSM when BSM beat them head to head. For the same reason, I can' see BSM above Cretin because Cretin beat them head to head.
And Cretin can’t be above Blake because Blake beat them. Where does that leave us?

blueblood
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Re: Section 6AA Seeding Discussion

Post by blueblood » Mon Feb 03, 2020 8:03 am

Wayzata also beat Blake, but has lost to Edina 2x

I think most would agree that:

8) Hopkins
7) AHA; good record but no wins in 6AA. Who is their signature win?
6) SLP; beat AHA.
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Slapper Al
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Re: Section 6AA Seeding Discussion

Post by Slapper Al » Mon Feb 03, 2020 8:39 am

1 Blake
2 CDH
3 BSM
4 Edina
5 Wayzata
6 St Louis Park
7 AHA
8 Hopkins

O-townClown
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Re: Section 6AA Seeding Discussion

Post by O-townClown » Mon Feb 03, 2020 9:51 am

Slapper Al wrote:
Mon Feb 03, 2020 8:39 am
1 Blake
2 CDH
3 BSM
4 Edina
5 Wayzata
6 St Louis Park
7 AHA
8 Hopkins
That’s what I see right now. A Wayzata win over Edina moves them up to 4 or possibly 3.

Edina-Wayzata for the 4th time this season is a distinct possibility.
Be kind. Rewind.

Brodziak Fan Club
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Re: Section 6AA Seeding Discussion

Post by Brodziak Fan Club » Mon Feb 03, 2020 10:12 am

Slapper Al wrote:
Mon Feb 03, 2020 8:39 am
1 Blake
2 CDH
3 BSM
4 Edina
5 Wayzata
6 St Louis Park
7 AHA
8 Hopkins
A viable SLP squad against BSM at the rec center would be well-worth the price of admission.

karl(east)
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Re: Section 6AA Seeding Discussion

Post by karl(east) » Mon Feb 03, 2020 9:56 pm

MNHockeyFan wrote:
Sun Feb 02, 2020 4:11 pm
karl(east) wrote:
Sun Feb 02, 2020 3:19 pm
This is about as crazy as it gets. I had a logic chain built in the seeding portion of last week's rankings, but that really relied on Cretin being the top-ranked team in the section; now that they've lost to East Ridge, that's no longer the case.

Given its record, I don't see Edina escaping the 4/5 game. Their only section wins over anyone in the top 5 are over Wayzata. If they win the 3rd meeting, put the Hornets at 4 and Wayzata at 5. If the Trojans win it, Edina could well be 5 and Wayzata would be a mess, with their win over Blake and tie to Benilde but two losses to Edina. Since Blake, Cretin, and Benilde are stuck in a transitive property circular firing squad, I'd say go with overall rankings to separate them. If Wayzata beats Edina and finishes well, they could have a case to break the top 3, at least perhaps ahead of Benilde if they're higher in the rankings. Clear as mud.
Me thinks karl(east) is grossly underpaid! :wink:
I'll leave a tip jar out at the Tourney for all the extra hours I've put in this year trying to make sense of it all. :lol:

For all the madness, it does seem like we're approaching something resembling a consensus on how to seed this section!

6AAGuy
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Re: Section 6AA Seeding Discussion

Post by 6AAGuy » Tue Feb 04, 2020 7:08 am

Glad to have Karl chime in to this. I think it warrants considering how Blake/CDH/BSM/Wayz fare in a few important remaining games:
--Blake has some easy games, then finish with a flailing Maple Grove. Likely win out--though not sure it will help their cases a ton.
--CDH has Stillwater, Flake and WBL--winning out could strengthen their case, though only playing 2 section opponents all year may hurt them
--BSM has STMA, Chaska, EP and SLP left to play--A sweep there would give Ken Pauly a very strong argument for #1
--Wayz has SCC, Hornets and EP.....
Simply put there's still a ton of important hockey left and the next two weeks may make all the difference....

sticksnblades
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Re: Section 6AA Seeding Discussion

Post by sticksnblades » Tue Feb 04, 2020 10:47 am

Karl nailed it! Some good thought put into the logic. With so few Section games, and a Section scenario where w beat x, x beat y and y beat z, it makes overall body of work meaningful in determining seeds. The Section 6AA tourney is going to provide some great games and intense drama beginning in the first round and ending in the Championship game.
1. Blake
2. CDH
3. BSM
4. Edina
5. Wayzata
6. SLP
7. AHA
8. Hopkins
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6AAGuy
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Re: Section 6AA Seeding Discussion

Post by 6AAGuy » Tue Feb 04, 2020 1:15 pm

Like I said--too early to call, but Karl reflects a rational view of current snapshot.
Too much hockey left for this to be meaningful today....
--if Hornets sweep, they'll for sure be over Wayz
--If Blake wins key games, they have a strong case
--If BSM sweeps, they make a strong 1 or 2 bid
--Cretin---should have played a stronger/fuller D6 schedule (they need to change that going forward)
A loss of a tough game (or an easy one) could be quite penal, to any one of these teams.....

BP
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Re: Section 6AA Seeding Discussion

Post by BP » Tue Feb 04, 2020 3:14 pm

6AAGuy wrote:
Tue Feb 04, 2020 1:15 pm
Like I said--too early to call, but Karl reflects a rational view of current snapshot.
Too much hockey left for this to be meaningful today....
--if Hornets sweep, they'll for sure be over Wayz
--If Blake wins key games, they have a strong case
--If BSM sweeps, they make a strong 1 or 2 bid
--Cretin---should have played a stronger/fuller D6 schedule (they need to change that going forward)
A loss of a tough game (or an easy one) could be quite penal, to any one of these teams.....
Wayzata and Edina dropped CDH this year with the addition of STMA and Buffalo into their conference. Not from a lack of trying to play them. HS scheduling isn't as easy as people think it is. Lots of teams want to play certain teams - but are declined for various reasons (large conference schedules, tournaments, coaches don't really care and let the AD run it, teams don't swap out teams they've been playing for years, etc).

6AAGuy
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Re: Section 6AA Seeding Discussion

Post by 6AAGuy » Fri Feb 14, 2020 8:05 am

Going to go like this:
Blake
Cretin
BSM
Edina
Wayzata
Holy Angels
SLP
Hopkins
Areas that could have some legitimate arguments for movement: Cretin/BSM could argue for a switch from above; and so could Edina/Wayzata. But it generally seems pretty straight forward. Going to be a great set of games for these playoffs. Absolute meat grinder. Best time of the year!!

sticksnblades
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Re: Section 6AA Seeding Discussion

Post by sticksnblades » Fri Feb 14, 2020 10:16 am

Agree with 6AAGuy on the Section seedings. With 4 teams ranked in the top 10 the survivor will deserve a trip to St. Paul.

Slapper Al
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Re: Section 6AA Seeding Discussion

Post by Slapper Al » Fri Feb 14, 2020 10:20 am

Only change is SLP will be 6 and AHA 7. SLP owns the head to head.
1 Blake
2 CDH
3 BSM
4 Edina
5 Wayzata
6 SLP
7 AHA
8 Hopkins

This will be a great tournament start to finish. The Edina vs Wayzata quarterfinal will be amazing and Semi Saturday at BIG will be wild.

6AAGuy
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Re: Section 6AA Seeding Discussion

Post by 6AAGuy » Fri Feb 14, 2020 11:42 am

A few non-scientific observations:
1) Count on the Hornets to be in top form. Giles ramps for the end of the year and they've been playing better. Very upset-capable.
2) Cretin has been hot/cold more recently and carries little/no post season experience. Is the Gleason factor enough?
3) BSM has played only two games with all key personnel this year, and still carry a key injury. Fully weaponized they are extremely good.
4) Wayzata being classic Wayzata--stingy and hard nosed, not pretty but effective. And O'Leary knows this late season landscape well.
5) AHA and SLP--wildcards. A hot goalie can make all the difference now. We'll see.
I predict at least one upset for sure. Possibly 2-3 here.
Winner of 6AA will, indeed, deserve a high berth at State.

bardown27
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Re: Section 6AA Seeding Discussion

Post by bardown27 » Sun Feb 16, 2020 9:24 am

6AA is out:

1. Blake
2. BSM
3. CDH
4. Edina
5. Wayzata
6. SLP
7. Holy Angels
8. Hopkins

ryguyMN
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Re: Section 6AA Seeding Discussion

Post by ryguyMN » Sun Feb 16, 2020 9:51 am

I’m a little surprised Cretin isn’t the 2 seed. QRF favors Cretin and PS favors BSM. Cretin won the head to head. Being the 2 vs. 3 game is on neutral ice, it’s a matter of who’s home and away on the scoreboard. The MSHSL site has the 2 vs. 3 semi as the late game - should be a barn burner!
Ryan

Blue Line
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Re: Section 6AA Seeding Discussion

Post by Blue Line » Sun Feb 16, 2020 10:00 am

ryguyMN wrote:
Sun Feb 16, 2020 9:51 am
I’m a little surprised Cretin isn’t the 2 seed. QRF favors Cretin and PS favors BSM. Cretin won the head to head. Being the 2 vs. 3 game is on neutral ice, it’s a matter of who’s home and away on the scoreboard. The MSHSL site has the 2 vs. 3 semi as the late game - should be a barn burner!
Cretin stumbling towards the end of the season hurt them. If BSM had beat EP earlier this week, I wouldn't have been surprised to see BSM at #1 considering Blake's loss yesterday to Maple Grove. Any truth to the rumor that people are already pitching tents at BIG to make sure that they can get a ticket to the semi-final games?

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