AA Rankings for 1/26/20

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karl(east)
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AA Rankings for 1/26/20

Post by karl(east) » Sun Jan 26, 2020 8:27 am

Isn’t it encouraging when five of your top seven teams lose by Thursday over the course of a week? This might just have been the most complicated week of this I’ve ever had.

1. Andover (15-3-1)
-The ranking roulette wheel has the Huskies back on top after a couple of wins while everyone else lost. They still have their flaws, particularly when it comes to finishing, but they have been the most consistent team this season. They are now in a fairly easy stretch of their schedule, though we can’t take anything for granted this season, particularly that Holy Family game this coming week.
Schedule: Tues at Holy Family, Thurs at Elk River, Sat at Rogers

2. Moorhead (15-3-1)
-The Spuds plugged along with two more quality wins this past week and continue to stake their claim to a high seed should they make it through to the Tourney; their only loss in their last 13 games is to the team now ranked #1. Saturday’s game could be an interesting one.
This week: Tues vs. Bemidji, Sat at Warroad

3. Cretin-Derham Hall (15-3-1)
-Every week, there seems to be a team that jumps up a few spots because it beat weak competition while everyone else around it lost. This week, that team is the Raiders, who have been steamrolling through the Suburban East. There’s something to be said for that—White Bear, clearly, has not had it so easy against the same schedule—but we’ll resolve any disputes there this week when the Raiders and Bears meet for the first time this season. The computerized rankings have had Cretin in this neighborhood for a little while now, while my quality wins method is a bit more skeptical, so we’ll see if this holds up. Also, 15-3-1 is apparently the record to have if you want to be a top three team.
This week: Tues vs. #12 White Bear Lake, Thurs at East Ridge, Sat vs. Park (Cottage Grove)

4. Blake (14-5)
-It’s the Bears’ turn to be the poster children for this season’s inconsistency as they may have consigned themselves to a low section seed with a loss to Benilde but rebounded with a come-from-behind win over Eden Prairie. Looking at their whole body of work, I do think they belong up here: they have wins over #1, #3, and #5, even though they have the most losses of anyone in the top seven. They start a private school party this coming week, with the Holy Angels game being the most interesting of the bunch given its section implications.
This week: Tues vs. Minnehaha Academy, Thurs vs. Holy Angels, Sat at Totino-Grace

5. Eden Prairie (13-4-1)
-The Eagles fell twice in the past week and are suddenly limping at a time when they should be pulling things together. Can one player turn around a team overflowing with talent that isn’t playing like it, and rarely has this season? We’ll find out now that their lineup is fully intact. They warm things up against Buffalo before what should be a telling game with their great conference rival.
This week: Thurs vs. Buffalo, Sat vs. #13 Edina

6. Prior Lake (12-4-3)
-The party at the casino keeps getting bigger as the Lakers toppled Rosemount to move to 6-0-2 in their last eight. It was tempting to slot them even higher, but even with Eden Prairie’s struggles, the Lakers just have a few more questionable results for a top five team, with losses to teams like Chaska and Lakeville North and a series of ties to 20-something-ranked teams. None of their remaining regular season opponents are in the top 15, though they do face a bunch of decent teams that could trip them up. If they can come out of these games looking pretty good, they might just earn a top five spot.
This week: Thurs vs. Eagan, Sat at Eastview

7. Rosemount (15-4)
-The Irish got humbled by Prior Lake, a result that yet again raises questions about this vaunted defense. They face a pair of 1AA conference foes this week; they lost to South the first time around and could use some revenge in this rematch.
This week: Thurs at Lakeville South, Sat vs. Farmington

8. Wayzata (12-6-1)
-The Trojans enjoyed an upward swing on the Lake Conference roller coaster this past week as they eked out one-goal wins over Eden Prairie and Minnetonka. As I’ve said a few times this year, this team’s style could serve it well in the playoffs this season, but they’ll need to string a bunch together, and they have yet to really get there. They make a road trip to Itasca County this week. I’ll set the over-under for total goals scored in their game with Rapids at two.
This week: Fri at Greenway, Sat at Grand Rapids

9. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (11-6-2)
-A win over Blake headlined a strong week for the Red Knights, who are now in pretty good position for a top-3 seed in 6AA and only have one real front-line test remaining on their schedule. Defense and goals in transition have become the name of the game for this group, which could yet be a tough out in sections.
This week: Sat vs. Bloomington Jefferson

10. Hill-Murray (12-5-2)
-The Pioneers showed some potential for an offensive burst in their win over Stillwater, though they quickly went back to their plodding ways in a narrow win over Grand Rapids. I think this team has the talent to score more than they do and play with teams in the top tier; they just need to, you know, do it. I’m curious to see what they can make of Hermantown on Saturday.
This week: Thurs vs. St. Thomas Academy, Sat vs. Hermantown

11. Minnetonka (10-9)
-The Skippers made their way through the Lake Conference meat grinder with a win over Edina and a loss to Wayzata. I don’t think it makes much sense to read too much into either of those, aside from noting that anyone in this group can beat anyone and observing they can be competitive with just about anyone. They enjoy trips to the two new conference entrants this week.
This week: Thurs at St. Michael-Albertville, Sat at Buffalo

12. White Bear Lake (13-3-1)
-One fluke loss to a lowly section opponent can happen; two makes you start to worry if there’s a trend here. They can prove their worth against a couple of quality opponents this week when they face Cretin and Blaine, and we might as well say it: they have to be careful with Roseville, too. This team feels like it’s at a crossroads and needs to make a statement to remain the favorite in 4AA.
This week: Tues at #3 Cretin-Derham Hall, Thurs vs. Roseville, Sat vs. #14 Blaine

13. Edina (10-8-2)
-The Hornets’ loss to Minnetonka keeps them from climbing, but a controlling win over Burnsville further solidifies their top 15 standing. A healthy Jimmy Clark certainly helps the cause; I’m curious to see what they can do offensively with a stumbling Eden Prairie on Saturday.
This week: Sat at #5 Eden Prairie

14. Blaine (13-6)
-Rarely is it smooth, but the Bengals won when it mattered this past week when they edged past Totino and, more importantly, Maple Grove in key section games. This team has the offensive firepower to compete with anyone, and if they can put things together, I can see them being pretty dangerous. They can burnish their credentials outside of the section by doing something against White Bear this coming week.
This week: Thurs vs. Centennial, Sat at #12 White Bear Lake

15. Maple Grove (13-5)
-A second loss to Blaine has the Crimson slipping to the 2-seed in 5AA. The Kukkonen injury has clearly sapped their scoring power, and they’ve lost their hold on their previously steady spot around #6. The Totino game this week could be of some interest in the section.
This week: Thurs vs. Totino-Grace, Sat vs. Spring Lake Park

The Next Ten

Lakeville South (12-6)
-The Cougars found some swagger again with a 5-1 win over rival North, which gives them a renewed chance at the top seed in 1AA. They’ll go for a season sweep of a top ten team this week when they host Rosemount. Can this team, which has enough talent to be ranked higher than this, start to string some wins together?

Eagan (13-5)
-The Wildcats defeated Farmington comfortably in their only action this past week. A visit to Prior Lake headlines a three-game week ahead of them.

St. Michael-Albertville (9-7-3)
-The team continues to quietly build momentum; they aren’t going to dominate teams, but they do have some legitimate top-end talent and have looked plenty respectable in their first round through the Lake and against section competition. In a season like this, what more can you ask for? They get a second crack at a Minnetonka team that hung eight on them in the first meeting.

Grand Rapids (10-7-1)
-The good news: the Thunderhawks continue to play stout defense and held a pair of top teams to three goals combined. The bad news: they scored zero of their own in those games, part of an ongoing defensive trend. The shifts in 7AA have them looking pretty for a trip to the section final; can this lockdown strategy give them a chance against Andover? In the near term, they’ll have to settle for testing it against Wayzata.

Burnsville (11-6-2)
-A win over Eastview should solidify a top-3 seed in 3AA for the Blaze, but their loss to Edina keeps them back in this section of the rankings. They continue the conference circuit this week with Farmington and Lakeville North.

Lakeville North (11-6-1)
-Falling short to South leaves the Panthers winless in their past three against better South Suburban teams and in need of a win to regain some ranking momentum. They can try to claim that in a visit to Burnsville on Saturday.

Stillwater (12-4-1)
-A late Hill blitz buried the Ponies in an important section game and left them looking at a 3-seed in 4AA. They rebounded well enough against the weaker teams in the conference but have yet to earn a win over a team currently in the top 25. Mahtomedi is their most interesting opponent this coming week.

Eastview (9-8-1)
-A team that deserves a little credit: the Lightning are holding their own against a pretty tough schedule. None of their losses are bad, they’ve beaten a few teams that are right around here (St. Thomas, St. Louis Park, Cloquet), and also have some plus results such as a win over Lakeville South and a tie to Prior Lake. They should cruise against Park and Apple Valley this week.

Holy Family (11-8)
-Hung in there reasonably well against Hermantown, so that result won’t hurt the Fire. They get a crack at the new #1 this week and face another team jockeying for position around here in Cloquet.

St. Thomas Academy (9-7-2)
-The Cadets have had their issues this season, but upon reappraisal, they still have three wins and two ties against top 15 teams, and there is enough talent here to at least be interesting in 3AA, if nothing else. They’ve been beating up on weaker competition the past two weeks, but we’ll get a better view on where they stand in a rematch with a Hill team they tied in December.

Sections, for a second-to-last time:

1AA
16 Lakeville South
21 Lakeville North
Hastings
Rochester Century
-With the later win and a somewhat stronger overall résumé, South is now in command of the race for the top seed, though the Cougars really don’t control their own destiny: things will run through the North-Hastings game in the season’s final week. If Hastings can win that one, they will likely jump to the top of the heap, while the game will decide whether North is seeded second or third. Hastings’ 10-4 blitz of Century will likely leave the Panthers with no more than a 4-seed. They can either solidify that over a run of section games over the next few weeks or throw it into jeopardy.

2AA
6 Prior Lake
5 Eden Prairie
11 Minnetonka
Chaska
24 Holy Family
-This section is looking more and more intriguing as Prior Lake continues its rise. The Lakers now have an outright case for the 1-seed, though if Eden Prairie can beat Minnetonka a second time, I wouldn’t be surprised to still see them at #1. If Minnetonka wins that rematch, though, I think the path is there. I don’t see Tonka moving from #3 or Chaska from #4 unless someone goes on some sort of streak.

3AA
7 Rosemount
17 Eagan
20 Burnsville
23 Eastview
25 St. Thomas Academy
-Eagan’s victory over Burnsville in the second meeting led me to tip the 2-seed toward the Wildcats to acknowledge the more recent win. Otherwise, not much has changed here: Rosemount, in spite of its road bumps, is still clearly on top of the heap, and unless there are some bad upset losses, I’m not sure St. Thomas has a path to anything higher than the 5-seed.

4AA
12 White Bear Lake
10 Hill-Murray
22 Stillwater
Mounds View
-After Hill’s win over Stillwater I was getting ready to lock this one in, even if the Ponies were to beat White Bear in the second meeting. But now that the Bears have suffered another questionable section loss, the door is at least open. I still think the top seed is theirs if they beat Stillwater, but if they lose that one or put up another unimpressive result for the stretch, I could see Hill sliding up to the top spot and the Bears dropping as far as #3. The second East Ridge-Mounds View meeting on the season’s final day will likely settle the 4-seed.

5AA
14 Blaine
15 Maple Grove
Centennial
Totino-Grace
-This season hasn’t always been smooth for Blaine, but the Bengals have won the two games that mattered most and should be the top seed. I’m not sure how much of a perk that is since Centennial and Totino, the other two likely semifinalists, have both been plenty competitive with them. If Centennial beats Blaine again this week, we’ll have a double transitive property circle of death (Blaine 2-0 vs. Maple Grove, Maple Grove 2-0 vs. Centennial, Centennial 2-0 vs. Blaine), so I could see a situation in which the Crimson still poach the top seed based on overall body of work. It’s a bit of a stretch, though. Otherwise, Totino’s win over Champlin Park has the pizza rolls in good position for a top four seed, and they play Centennial next week to decide the 3-seed.

6AA
3 Cretin-Derham Hall
9 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
13 Edina
4 Blake
8 Wayzata
-Okay, I think I have achieved something resembling logic with this section. Cretin, with the best overall body of work and a .500 section record, slots in at #1; Benilde, which has lost to Cretin but beaten Edina and Blake, is second. Edina, with a loss to Benilde but two wins over Wayzata, is next; coming in fourth is Blake, who is probably the biggest wild card here with a win over Cretin but losses to Benilde and Wayzata. Because Wayzata has beaten Blake, the Trojans could yet jump to #4, but to do so I think they need to beat Edina in the final meeting; otherwise, their 0-3 record against the Hornets would dent their section record too much—so yes, I think there is a scenario in which Blake could be a top 5 team and play their quarterfinal on the road. And St. Louis Park and Holy Angels aren’t pushovers, either. Everyone got that? Now don’t you dare lose any questionable games, Cretin.

7AA
1 Andover
19 Grand Rapids
Forest Lake
Cloquet
-The only new news here is Forest Lake slotting in to a position for a higher seed with its win over Duluth East. If the Rangers can beat Cloquet this week, they’ll be sitting pretty for #3, and even with a loss they may have a shot given overall schedules and what Cloquet’s remaining games could do to QRF. East at the very least needs to beat Cloquet in the rematch next week to get a top four seed.

8AA
2 Moorhead
18 St. Michael-Albertville
St. Cloud
Roseau
-The Spuds are in firm position for the top seed after winning the rematch with Roseau, and STMA’s victory over the suddenly plummeting Rams should lock the Knights in for the 2-seed. Surging St. Cloud, after its win over Roseau, now is in position for the 3-seed, and Roseau may be relegated to the 4-seed, which could make for a very interesting semi between the Rams and Spuds. Roseau’s only hope to avoid that scenario is to go on a run and hope that early win over Moorhead carries extra weight in the seeding vote.

Three more weeks...

GoldenBear
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Re: AA Rankings for 1/26/20

Post by GoldenBear » Sun Jan 26, 2020 9:44 am

I’ll take the under Karl I the Indian Trojan battle up north. Great job on the rankings..so hard to rank any of these guys GB

WestMetro
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Re: AA Rankings for 1/26/20

Post by WestMetro » Sun Jan 26, 2020 10:14 am

Unbelievable week. I went 0-6 in our groups Pickem this week; we also do a coin flip for comparison, and you guessed it the coin flip prediction was 6 for 6! Cant make it up!

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Re: AA Rankings for 1/26/20

Post by O-townClown » Sun Jan 26, 2020 11:39 am

karl(east) wrote:
Sun Jan 26, 2020 8:27 am
6AA
3 Cretin-Derham Hall
9 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
13 Edina
4 Blake
8 Wayzata
-Okay, I think I have achieved something resembling logic with this section. Cretin, with the best overall body of work and a .500 section record, slots in at #1; Benilde, which has lost to Cretin but beaten Edina and Blake, is second. Edina, with a loss to Benilde but two wins over Wayzata, is next; coming in fourth is Blake, who is probably the biggest wild card here with a win over Cretin but losses to Benilde and Wayzata. Because Wayzata has beaten Blake, the Trojans could yet jump to #4, but to do so I think they need to beat Edina in the final meeting; otherwise, their 0-3 record against the Hornets would dent their section record too much—so yes, I think there is a scenario in which Blake could be a top 5 team and play their quarterfinal on the road. And St. Louis Park and Holy Angels aren’t pushovers, either. Everyone got that? Now don’t you dare lose any questionable games, Cretin.
It's crazy to look at seeding this group. 8-Hopkins, 7-Holy Angels, 6-St. Louis Park is likely, but beyond that? You've got Blake a borderline 5 and I see them as 1/2 with Cretin. It shows anything can happen.

Blake will likely be 3-2 in Section with wins over Cretin, SLP & Holy Angels. Losses to Wayzata & Benilde.

Edina owns two wins over Wayzata, but lost to Benilde. Their other losses have been outside the Section.

Cretin beat Benilde and lost to Blake, no other opponents from the Section!

Wayzata was tracking to a high seed and then got goosed 4-0 at Braemar.

Benilde owns wins over Edina & Blake but lost to Cretin. Tied Wayzata.

Seeding normally affects if a team has a rough Semifinal opponent. We are pretty sure the Section VI semi will resemble a Friday night game from Xcel. This is a big deal because the options for Quarters are Hopkins, AHA/SLP, or one of these 5 teams.
Be kind. Rewind.

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Re: AA Rankings for 1/26/20

Post by karl(east) » Sun Jan 26, 2020 5:45 pm

O-townClown wrote:
Sun Jan 26, 2020 11:39 am
karl(east) wrote:
Sun Jan 26, 2020 8:27 am
6AA
3 Cretin-Derham Hall
9 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
13 Edina
4 Blake
8 Wayzata
-Okay, I think I have achieved something resembling logic with this section. Cretin, with the best overall body of work and a .500 section record, slots in at #1; Benilde, which has lost to Cretin but beaten Edina and Blake, is second. Edina, with a loss to Benilde but two wins over Wayzata, is next; coming in fourth is Blake, who is probably the biggest wild card here with a win over Cretin but losses to Benilde and Wayzata. Because Wayzata has beaten Blake, the Trojans could yet jump to #4, but to do so I think they need to beat Edina in the final meeting; otherwise, their 0-3 record against the Hornets would dent their section record too much—so yes, I think there is a scenario in which Blake could be a top 5 team and play their quarterfinal on the road. And St. Louis Park and Holy Angels aren’t pushovers, either. Everyone got that? Now don’t you dare lose any questionable games, Cretin.
It's crazy to look at seeding this group. 8-Hopkins, 7-Holy Angels, 6-St. Louis Park is likely, but beyond that? You've got Blake a borderline 5 and I see them as 1/2 with Cretin. It shows anything can happen.

Blake will likely be 3-2 in Section with wins over Cretin, SLP & Holy Angels. Losses to Wayzata & Benilde.

Edina owns two wins over Wayzata, but lost to Benilde. Their other losses have been outside the Section.

Cretin beat Benilde and lost to Blake, no other opponents from the Section!

Wayzata was tracking to a high seed and then got goosed 4-0 at Braemar.

Benilde owns wins over Edina & Blake but lost to Cretin. Tied Wayzata.

Seeding normally affects if a team has a rough Semifinal opponent. We are pretty sure the Section VI semi will resemble a Friday night game from Xcel. This is a big deal because the options for Quarters are Hopkins, AHA/SLP, or one of these 5 teams.
Yeah, I think that's a perfectly justifiable seeding opinion, too. Blake really is the wild card here...I don't think it's hard to make a Cretin > BSM > Edina > Wayzata chain of logic and we just have to decide where Blake slots in. I guess I'm more inclined to toss out the St. Louis Park and Holy Angels games from the conversation--while those teams are certainly pretty good for 6- and 7-seeds, I wouldn't put them in the same league as the top five, which leaves Blake at 1-2 in relevant section games. But, they certainly have a case with the way they've been playing lately. I think they'd benefit from a third Edina win over Wayzata; if the Trojans end up 1-3-1 against others in the top five it's easier for Blake to brush that Wayzata loss off as a fluke, whereas at 2-2-1 it gets stickier. Continuing their winning ways and staying in the top five would certainly help their cause, too.

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Re: AA Rankings for 1/26/20

Post by O-townClown » Sun Jan 26, 2020 6:26 pm

karl(east) wrote:
Sun Jan 26, 2020 5:45 pm
I don't think it's hard to make a Cretin > BSM > Edina > Wayzata chain of logic and we just have to decide where Blake slots in.
https://youtu.be/W8NOPjrXfso
Be kind. Rewind.

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Re: AA Rankings for 1/26/20

Post by Green and White Fan » Mon Jan 27, 2020 11:30 am

I am wondering how you have assumed Moorhead is the #1 seed in 8AA? Based on section play, STMA is undefeated and has tied the Spuds. Moorhead has a section loss. I believe if STMA wins their remaining section games, they make a strong case for the #1 seed.
We've got 7 yes we do, we've got 7, how about you!

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Re: AA Rankings for 1/26/20

Post by bardown27 » Mon Jan 27, 2020 11:53 am

Green and White Fan wrote:
Mon Jan 27, 2020 11:30 am
I am wondering how you have assumed Moorhead is the #1 seed in 8AA? Based on section play, STMA is undefeated and has tied the Spuds. Moorhead has a section loss. I believe if STMA wins their remaining section games, they make a strong case for the #1 seed.
My guess it has something to do with overall body of work, not just in-section record.

Moorhead is 15-3-1 (losses to Maple Grove, Roseau, and Andover, tied STMA), STMA is 9-7-3 (losses to Prior Lake, Blaine, Tonka, Blake 2x, Wayzata, and EP, ties with Moorhead, Hill and Edina).

Common opponent wise, they have both played Wayzata, Brainerd, Bemidji, Buffalo, Roseau, Tonka, Edina, EP, and St. Cloud. In those games, Moorhead is 9-1 (only loss being to Roseau, who they recently just beat) and STMA is 6-3-1 (losses to Wayzata, Tonka, and EP, tie with Edina).

STMA has a slight advantage in SO (#5 compared to Moorhead's #7) according to minnhock, but it's marginal.

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Re: AA Rankings for 1/26/20

Post by Green and White Fan » Mon Jan 27, 2020 1:03 pm

I get the overall body of work thing, but as far as section play, I think STMA will get some first place votes, assuming they win out. I am guessing Moorhead gets the nod if both teams finish strong, but STMA would have a case to make for the #1 seed. They road a hot goalie in Roseau getting out shot more than 2 to 1, but it is still a win.
We've got 7 yes we do, we've got 7, how about you!

Goal_Judge
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Re: AA Rankings for 1/26/20

Post by Goal_Judge » Mon Jan 27, 2020 4:02 pm

Thanks to Karl for a great weekly read...always fun to think about!

For 6AA, I agree it's a mess. The issue I have with Karl's proposed seedings is that for some teams (Cretin), their overall record is what is pushing their section ranking, while for other teams (e.g. Blake, Edina), their section games seem to be the overwhelming driving force as to where they are seeded. Cretin has only played two section games, and is 1-1, as they beat BSM and lost to Blake. Does that justify them being #1? BSM, Blake and Cretin are all 1-1 against each other. Should you then look at other common opponents (besides each other) to help with seeding? If so, Benilde is 2-3-1 as to Blake and 0-1-1 as to Cretin, Blake is 4-1 as to Cretin and 4-2 as to Benilde, and Cretin is 3-2 as to Blake and 0-1-1 as to Benilde. Under this approach, Blake could arguable be first among these three. How about each team's record against current top 10? Cretin is 1-1, Benilde is 3-2-1, Blake is 3-4 (with its three wins against current nos. 1, 3 and 5), Edina is 2-6 and Wayzata is 4-4-1. Wayzata, Blake or Benilde would win this comparison.

The real problem is that Cretin doesn't play nearly as strong a schedule compared to Wayzata, Edina, Blake or Benilde, nor do they play many meaningful section games. In short, through no fault of their own, they really don't belong in this section. Because of this, following Karl's suggestion and putting them at #1 while slotting Blake (who they lost to) at # 4 or 5 seems to make little sense and lacks fairness. If Edina loses again to EP and Wayzata, they should likely be seeded #5; conversely, if Wayzata wins out, they could have a good claim to #1. As for right now, I don't know if there is a correct answer--most teams have arguments for or against a high seed. But because of the lack of evenness as to the number of section games or the quality of the overall schedule, I'd be tempted to follow the computer rankings this year, as at least it's the same playing field for all teams.

Section 8 guy
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Re: AA Rankings for 1/26/20

Post by Section 8 guy » Mon Jan 27, 2020 4:36 pm

Green and White Fan wrote:
Mon Jan 27, 2020 1:03 pm
I get the overall body of work thing, but as far as section play, I think STMA will get some first place votes, assuming they win out. I am guessing Moorhead gets the nod if both teams finish strong, but STMA would have a case to make for the #1 seed. They road a hot goalie in Roseau getting out shot more than 2 to 1, but it is still a win.
One thing to consider, the number of section games played isn’t the same. Pretty tough to just simply look at blemishes when games played isn’t equal.

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Re: AA Rankings for 1/26/20

Post by Goal_Judge » Mon Jan 27, 2020 6:15 pm

Reading Karl's Section 6AA projected seedings again, I realize what may have been nagging at me: "Cretin, with the best overall body of work...." Yes, Cretin has a good record, but their schedule is so much weaker than the other top four contenders in the section. I know you can dissect this many ways, but (using the latest QRF rankings) let's look at the average ranking of the AA teams each of the top five 6AA teams have beaten: Blake--20.2, Wayzata--22.1, Edina--26.6, Benilde 30.2, and Cretin 39.3. Cretin has not beaten a team in the QRF top ten (Wayzata has beaten 4 such teams, Blake 3, Edina and Benilde 2 each). Again, this shows the difficulty of seeding this section--comparing apples to oranges.

And by the way, look out for Holy Angels!

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Re: AA Rankings for 1/26/20

Post by O-townClown » Mon Jan 27, 2020 6:27 pm

Goal_Judge wrote:
Mon Jan 27, 2020 6:15 pm
And by the way, look out for Holy Angels!
Who probably is seeded 7 due to the H2H loss to St. Louis Park. Tough section for sure. Whoever goes to state won't be phased by their QF opponent.
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Re: AA Rankings for 1/26/20

Post by Potatohead9 » Tue Jan 28, 2020 3:33 am

Green and White Fan wrote:
Mon Jan 27, 2020 11:30 am
I am wondering how you have assumed Moorhead is the #1 seed in 8AA? Based on section play, STMA is undefeated and has tied the Spuds. Moorhead has a section loss. I believe if STMA wins their remaining section games, they make a strong case for the #1 seed.

Taken from Followthepuck.com

Section 8AA
Team Rank Record Win % GFA GAA G Diff Class AA 8AA 1AA 2AA 3AA 4AA 5AA 6AA 7AA A
Moorhead 8 15-3-1 .816 3.68 1.95 1.74 13-3-1 6-1-1 1-0-0 2-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-1-0 3-0-0 1-1-0 2-0-0
Roseau 24 12-7-0 .632 3.89 2.37 1.53 7-5-0 4-4-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 1-1-0 1-0-0 1-0-0 4-2-0
St. Michael-Albertville 26 9-7-3 .553 3.84 4.05 -0.21 9-7-3 6-0-1 0-0-0 1-3-0 0-0-0 0-0-1 1-1-0 1-3-1 0-0-0 0-0-0
St. Cloud 38 12-6-1 .658 4.32 2.58 1.74 5-4-1 3-3-1 1-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-1-0 1-0-0 7-2-0
Rogers 43 9-7-1 .559 3.24 2.82 0.41 6-7-0 2-3-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 3-2-0 0-1-0 1-1-0 3-0-1
Brainerd 48 7-9-1 .441 2.18 3.00 -0.82 3-7-1 3-4-1 0-0-0 0-1-0 0-1-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-1-0 0-0-0 4-2-0
Buffalo 52 5-14-0 .263 2.68 4.11 -1.42 5-12-0 3-7-0 0-0-0 0-3-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 1-2-0 1-0-0 0-2-0
Bemidji 57 3-15-1 .184 1.84 4.16 -2.32 2-10-1 1-6-0 1-2-1 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-2-0 1-5-0

If Moorhead cared where they were ranked in section play, they would schedule more section games. Playing St. Michael-Albertville, Rogers, Buffalo and St. Cloud each once. They also chose not to play all the teams in the Mariucci Conference. Instead they take these games and schedule teams/Tournaments who are yearly perennial powers in hockey. (DE, Grand Rapids, Andover, Edina, EP, MG, Tonka, Wayzata, Hill, Benilde, Cathedral, LVN.) Will the coaches in 8AA seed teams by section play only? Probably not. Green and White Fan still stuck on Moorhead beating you in Roseau....? Yes you outshot them, but failed to outscore them... You should be more worried about a three game losing skid at home to section teams...
Thats Mr. Potatohead to you!

Section 8 guy
Posts: 532
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Re: AA Rankings for 1/26/20

Post by Section 8 guy » Tue Jan 28, 2020 7:29 am

To be fair, Green and Whites take on the Roseau Moorhead game was very reasonable. It was a different Roseau fan who I think you are addressing. And Moorhead outshot Roseau pretty comfortably in the recent game. Both of them actually. It was STMA that Roseau outshot heavily and lost to.

Slap Shot
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Re: AA Rankings for 1/26/20

Post by Slap Shot » Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:04 am

Green and White Fan wrote:
Mon Jan 27, 2020 11:30 am
I am wondering how you have assumed Moorhead is the #1 seed in 8AA? Based on section play, STMA is undefeated and has tied the Spuds. Moorhead has a section loss. I believe if STMA wins their remaining section games, they make a strong case for the #1 seed.
I'm not so sure Karl is predicting the ending result for section seeding but rather rating based upon the current snapshot in time?

If there is a great disparity in the # of total games played then other games played have to be factored including H2H when applicable and the overall body of work including SOS. STMA and Moorhead's SOS are nearly identical. http://minnhock.com/strength.htm

BodyShots
Posts: 1826
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Re: AA Rankings for 1/26/20

Post by BodyShots » Tue Jan 28, 2020 10:21 am

karl(east) wrote:
Sun Jan 26, 2020 8:27 am
7AA
1 Andover
19 Grand Rapids
Forest Lake
Cloquet
-The only new news here is Forest Lake slotting in to a position for a higher seed with its win over Duluth East. If the Rangers can beat Cloquet this week, they’ll be sitting pretty for #3, and even with a loss they may have a shot given overall schedules and what Cloquet’s remaining games could do to QRF. East at the very least needs to beat Cloquet in the rematch next week to get a top four seed.
Coach Randolph is doing everything possible, trying to figure out how they can play Flake in the first round. "If I lose this game, cancel that game, win vs that team and they do this, that, and the other thing, just maybe!" "Damn, it was easier when I could just meet everybody in the bathroom between votes! #-o "

HSPuckFan96
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Re: AA Rankings for 1/26/20

Post by HSPuckFan96 » Tue Jan 28, 2020 12:20 pm

Green and White Fan wrote:
Mon Jan 27, 2020 1:03 pm
I get the overall body of work thing, but as far as section play, I think STMA will get some first place votes, assuming they win out. I am guessing Moorhead gets the nod if both teams finish strong, but STMA would have a case to make for the #1 seed. They road a hot goalie in Roseau getting out shot more than 2 to 1, but it is still a win.
I don't have a dog in this fight, but as an outsider, looking at both teams today, I don't see any way that Moorehead isn't the #1 seed. Again, this is based on today, stuff can still change, but 15-3-1 (6-1-1 in section) is far better than 9-7-3 (6-0-1). I do not see a case for the Knights

massalsa
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Re: AA Rankings for 1/26/20

Post by massalsa » Tue Jan 28, 2020 12:43 pm

HSPuckFan96 wrote:
Tue Jan 28, 2020 12:20 pm


I don't have a dog in this fight, but as an outsider, looking at both teams today, I don't see any way that Moorehead isn't the #1 seed. Again, this is based on today, stuff can still change, but 15-3-1 (6-1-1 in section) is far better than 9-7-3 (6-0-1). I do not see a case for the Knights
Have not looked but SOS could have some significant impact. STMA will have played each team in the Lake conference 2x plus Blake 2x. Moorhead has had some great games on schedule too but the Lake teams x 2 is significant.

bardown27
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Re: AA Rankings for 1/26/20

Post by bardown27 » Tue Jan 28, 2020 12:44 pm

massalsa wrote:
Tue Jan 28, 2020 12:43 pm
HSPuckFan96 wrote:
Tue Jan 28, 2020 12:20 pm


I don't have a dog in this fight, but as an outsider, looking at both teams today, I don't see any way that Moorehead isn't the #1 seed. Again, this is based on today, stuff can still change, but 15-3-1 (6-1-1 in section) is far better than 9-7-3 (6-0-1). I do not see a case for the Knights
Have not looked but SOS could have some significant impact. STMA will have played each team in the Lake conference 2x plus Blake 2x. Moorhead has had some great games on schedule too but the Lake teams x 2 is significant.
STMA has a slight advantage in SOS (#5 compared to Moorhead's #7)

InThePipes
Posts: 495
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Re: AA Rankings for 1/26/20

Post by InThePipes » Tue Jan 28, 2020 12:57 pm

HSPuckFan96 wrote:
Tue Jan 28, 2020 12:20 pm
Green and White Fan wrote:
Mon Jan 27, 2020 1:03 pm
I get the overall body of work thing, but as far as section play, I think STMA will get some first place votes, assuming they win out. I am guessing Moorhead gets the nod if both teams finish strong, but STMA would have a case to make for the #1 seed. They road a hot goalie in Roseau getting out shot more than 2 to 1, but it is still a win.
I don't have a dog in this fight, but as an outsider, looking at both teams today, I don't see any way that Moorehead isn't the #1 seed. Again, this is based on today, stuff can still change, but 15-3-1 (6-1-1 in section) is far better than 9-7-3 (6-0-1). I do not see a case for the Knights
Agree completely

elliott70
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Location: Bemidji

Re: AA Rankings for 1/26/20

Post by elliott70 » Thu Jan 30, 2020 11:19 am

The HUB
Class 2A | Jan. 29, 2020
rank team record prev
1. Andover 16-3-1 2
2. Moorhead 16-3-1 4
3. Cretin-Derham Hall 16-3-1 7
4. Blake 15-5-0
5. Eden Prairie 13-4-1 1
6. Rosemount 15-4-0 3
7. Prior Lake 12-4-3
8. Wayzata 12-6-1
9. Benilde-St. Margaret's 11-6-2 8
10. Maple Grove 13-5-0 5

goldy313
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Re: AA Rankings for 1/26/20

Post by goldy313 » Thu Jan 30, 2020 10:28 pm

Amazing how similar Hockey hub is to Karl..

It will be interesting to see whether the 1AA hating Karl does with Lakeville South this week. Page2stat, QRF, and LQSrank all have South considerably higher than Karl does.

How long can he hold a grudge?

TheNightman
Posts: 562
Joined: Fri Nov 21, 2008 2:41 pm

Re: AA Rankings for 1/26/20

Post by TheNightman » Thu Jan 30, 2020 11:48 pm

goldy313 wrote:
Thu Jan 30, 2020 10:28 pm
Amazing how similar Hockey hub is to Karl..

It will be interesting to see whether the 1AA hating Karl does with Lakeville South this week. Page2stat, QRF, and LQSrank all have South considerably higher than Karl does.

How long can he hold a grudge?
LPH does the rankings the Hub uses, and those are voted on by the coaches.

InThePipes
Posts: 495
Joined: Mon Mar 26, 2012 8:26 pm

Re: AA Rankings for 1/26/20

Post by InThePipes » Fri Jan 31, 2020 6:15 am

goldy313 wrote:
Thu Jan 30, 2020 10:28 pm
Amazing how similar Hockey hub is to Karl..

It will be interesting to see whether the 1AA hating Karl does with Lakeville South this week. Page2stat, QRF, and LQSrank all have South considerably higher than Karl does.

How long can he hold a grudge?
A couple of nice W's vs. Rosemount (who haven't exactly been blowing anyone's doors off recently), but I've seen LVS a couple of times and I'm with Karl on this one. :D

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