Section 5A Thread

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MrBoDangles
Posts: 4072
Joined: Tue Jan 27, 2009 9:32 pm

Re: Section 5A Thread

Post by MrBoDangles » Wed Feb 12, 2020 9:46 am

Self harm continues... North Branch had 160 penalty minutes ALL of last year and are currently at 268(!!!) this season with a game to play. It makes it all the worse when your best players are the ones off the ice most of the time. This group dominates when they just play their game with clean - intensity...

Stang5280
Posts: 1184
Joined: Wed Jun 28, 2017 1:12 pm

Re: Section 5A Thread

Post by Stang5280 » Wed Feb 12, 2020 12:57 pm

MrBoDangles wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 9:46 am
Self harm continues... North Branch had 160 penalty minutes ALL of last year and are currently at 268(!!!) this season with a game to play. It makes it all the worse when your best players are the ones off the ice most of the time. This group dominates when they just play their game with clean - intensity...
I watched the game last night. North Branch did plenty to shoot themselves in the foot, but Breck also controlled play during 5-on-5. The only way NB could get any offense going was when the top line had transition opportunities. That was my third or fourth time seeing the Vikings, and I honestly don’t think they are all that good as a team, but just have a few talented players who can carry them through stretches. Monticello should be basically a lock to come out of 5A.

Oh, and I will come out and say it: North Branch flat out plays dirty at times. Those penalties are more often roughing or cross-checks (or worse) than tripping or hooking.

1goalwonder
Posts: 37
Joined: Tue Dec 05, 2006 11:22 pm

Re: Section 5A Thread

Post by 1goalwonder » Wed Feb 12, 2020 1:15 pm

I did some heavy analysis by goal differential and figured I could post my findings here for everyone to enjoy. I took the average goal differential between each team in the section when they played another team. I then did an individual ranking for each team, totalled the rankings, removed the 1 highest rating and 1 lowest ranking to account for outliers, and then averaged the ranking.

https://imgur.com/a/wlgZt8U

If you don't want to check out the link, here are the ratings by average goal differential.

1. Monticello
2. Pine City
3. North Branch
4. Princeton
5. St. Francis
6. Northern Lakes
7. Chisago Lakes
8. Sauk Rapids
9. Mora
10. Becker/Big Lake
11. Cambridge
12. Moose Lake

The model could use a little tweaking as Becker/Big Lake finishes higher than Cambridge in this model, despite Cambridge beating them all three times they met this season probably being the most egregious of errors.

This section is Monticello's to lose as far as I'm concerned, but there will definitely be some entertaining games, as well as an upset or two.

1goalwonder
Posts: 37
Joined: Tue Dec 05, 2006 11:22 pm

Re: Section 5A Thread

Post by 1goalwonder » Wed Feb 12, 2020 1:23 pm

Stang5280 wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 12:57 pm
MrBoDangles wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 9:46 am
Self harm continues... North Branch had 160 penalty minutes ALL of last year and are currently at 268(!!!) this season with a game to play. It makes it all the worse when your best players are the ones off the ice most of the time. This group dominates when they just play their game with clean - intensity...
I watched the game last night. North Branch did plenty to shoot themselves in the foot, but Breck also controlled play during 5-on-5. The only way NB could get any offense going was when the top line had transition opportunities. That was my third or fourth time seeing the Vikings, and I honestly don’t think they are all that good as a team, but just have a few talented players who can carry them through stretches. Monticello should be basically a lock to come out of 5A.

Oh, and I will come out and say it: North Branch flat out plays dirty at times. Those penalties are more often roughing or cross-checks (or worse) than tripping or hooking.
From my viewings of North Branch they definitely rely on transitions to create offense as well, so if you don't allow the odd man rushes and don't let their top end skill burn you, they definitely struggle.

I have also noticed some dirty play as well, and usually it is pretty sneaky and behind the play where officials don't see it. I could also see them being frustrated with how things have been going these past couple of weeks playing a role as well. This might also have something to do with them being somewhat of rival for my alma mater :lol:

Duckguy13
Posts: 83
Joined: Thu Jan 03, 2019 11:59 pm

Re: Section 5A Thread

Post by Duckguy13 » Sat Feb 15, 2020 10:15 pm

Look forward to see how 2-5 seeds play out.
Monti
PC
NB
...
...
...

? What do you think, when do you think it will be posted?

1goalwonder
Posts: 37
Joined: Tue Dec 05, 2006 11:22 pm

Re: Section 5A Thread

Post by 1goalwonder » Sun Feb 16, 2020 12:14 pm

Official seeding is out...

1. Monticello
2. North Branch
3. Pine City
4. St. Francis
5. Princeton
6. Northern Lakes
7. Chisago Lakes
8. Sauk Rapids
9. Mora
10. Cambridge
11. Becker/Big Lake
12. Moose Lake

MrBoDangles
Posts: 4072
Joined: Tue Jan 27, 2009 9:32 pm

Re: Section 5A Thread

Post by MrBoDangles » Fri Feb 21, 2020 8:18 am

I think it was 50+ shots and the CL goalie only allowed 1. They also had a forward playing some inspired hockey with the 2 goals. I’m sure his dad is proud.

Good luck the rest of the way!

Duckguy13
Posts: 83
Joined: Thu Jan 03, 2019 11:59 pm

Re: Section 5A Thread

Post by Duckguy13 » Fri Feb 21, 2020 9:25 am

Anyone have info on the NB CLakes game, there is nothing posted on HH for stats, penalties, etc just the score. Obviously a very close affair and good rivalry game.

bardown27
Posts: 574
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2009 10:20 am

Re: Section 5A Thread

Post by bardown27 » Fri Feb 21, 2020 10:20 am

Duckguy13 wrote:
Fri Feb 21, 2020 9:25 am
Anyone have info on the NB CLakes game, there is nothing posted on HH for stats, penalties, etc just the score. Obviously a very close affair and good rivalry game.
Looks like it has been updated.

CL 0/3 on PP, NB 0/1.

Shots 42-29 NB.

Stang5280
Posts: 1184
Joined: Wed Jun 28, 2017 1:12 pm

Re: Section 5A Thread

Post by Stang5280 » Fri Feb 21, 2020 1:06 pm

Once the section playoffs are wrapped up, I am planning on putting together a post on the most surprising and disappointing Class A teams. Spoiler alert: North Branch will be appearing on one of those lists.

Duckguy13
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Re: Section 5A Thread

Post by Duckguy13 » Fri Feb 21, 2020 9:52 pm

Thanks. I look forward to it, and any State breakdowns you afford us.

Duckguy13
Posts: 83
Joined: Thu Jan 03, 2019 11:59 pm

Re: Section 5A Thread

Post by Duckguy13 » Sat Feb 22, 2020 10:12 pm

Monticello pulled away in second and 3rd after a tight 1st period. Final 5-1 Moose.

Shots 52-34

Duckguy13
Posts: 83
Joined: Thu Jan 03, 2019 11:59 pm

Re: Section 5A Thread

Post by Duckguy13 » Sat Feb 22, 2020 10:12 pm

Monticello pulled away in second and 3rd after a tight 1st period. Final 5-1 Moose.

Shots 52-34

ClassAGuy
Posts: 140
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Re: Section 5A Thread

Post by ClassAGuy » Mon Feb 24, 2020 7:03 pm

Any Predictions for the Final

Monticello has dominated 5A all year. They have always had their way with Pine City in the past.

Pince City is riding a great year and arrives in its first section final since 02 I think I saw. I would love to see the Dragons win but I think they will play nervous and have not been in this moment.

I think the Moose win big here.

Good Luck to both teams hoping for a great Game!

MrBoDangles
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Joined: Tue Jan 27, 2009 9:32 pm

Re: Section 5A Thread

Post by MrBoDangles » Mon Feb 24, 2020 10:47 pm

ClassAGuy wrote:
Mon Feb 24, 2020 7:03 pm
Any Predictions for the Final

Monticello has dominated 5A all year. They have always had their way with Pine City in the past.

Pince City is riding a great year and arrives in its first section final since 02 I think I saw. I would love to see the Dragons win but I think they will play nervous and have not been in this moment.

I think the Moose win big here.

Good Luck to both teams hoping for a great Game!
Pretty tight game between them earlier in the year and Pine City outshot them pretty heavily in the 2nd and 3rd. It was a one goal game until late in the 3rd... Pine City goalie has been getting some accolades as of late. Flip a coin in my opinion.

Stang5280
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Re: Section 5A Thread

Post by Stang5280 » Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:48 pm

I would peg Monticello as about a two goal favorite. I watched a lot of Pine City this year, since most of their games were streamed, and generally was impressed with them. PC has a few finishers up front, and also receives plenty of scoring from the blue line, especially Dusty Bergstrom who often operates like a fourth forward. Goaltender Alex Laven is a very big, capable backstop.

That said, Monticello has a notable advantage in depth, and has also been tested with a far more challenging schedule. Pine City has struggled against better competition, with their best win coming against Mound Westonka. In addition to the early season Monticello loss, they also dropped games against the likes of Princeton and North Branch, and were drubbed by Denfeld a few weeks ago. I would like to see an upset and another new representative from 5A at state, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

Duckguy13
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Joined: Thu Jan 03, 2019 11:59 pm

Re: Section 5A Thread

Post by Duckguy13 » Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:00 pm

Both teams have excellent special teams PP and PK. Upper 30%s and upper 80%s, on the kill. Both have solid goal tending

"That said, Monticello has a notable advantage in depth, and has also been tested with a far more challenging schedule" =D>
Agree with Stang...

Monticello 3rd line plays a lot and they typically start wearing down other teams by the middle of the second.

Their Class A losses are to 5 of the top 10 teams..Orono, Mahtomedi, Cathedral, Delano and Little Falls. Other 2 losses to the Bracinis (BuffaloAA) and Champ/ParkAA.

Undefended in Conference and Section...Monticello 4-1 is my guess.

1goalwonder
Posts: 37
Joined: Tue Dec 05, 2006 11:22 pm

Re: Section 5A Thread

Post by 1goalwonder » Wed Feb 26, 2020 8:40 am

I would say that Pine City actually has better top end skill than Monticello, but like many of you have touched on the depth will play a huge roll at Fogerty tomorrow night. Junior forward Parker Sell has been absolutely on fire this postseason, and even if you are able to contain him you will probably have a hard time keeping his linemate George Miller under control who is probably, at the very least, as talented as him. I would say that Pine City's blueline is probably their best strength, and is at least on par with Monticello's, but I don't have much familiarity with them this season either.

These two teams did have a closer game than the 5-2 score indicated at the start of the season, but as a full season has passed I'm sure both teams are at least slightly different, so it might not be the best way to determine the outcome either.

I think this ends up being a 1 goal contest, with the possibility of an empty netter with favorite Monticello having about a 65 percent chance of making it to the X next week.

Stang5280 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:48 pm
I would peg Monticello as about a two goal favorite. I watched a lot of Pine City this year, since most of their games were streamed, and generally was impressed with them. PC has a few finishers up front, and also receives plenty of scoring from the blue line, especially Dusty Bergstrom who often operates like a fourth forward. Goaltender Alex Laven is a very big, capable backstop.

That said, Monticello has a notable advantage in depth, and has also been tested with a far more challenging schedule. Pine City has struggled against better competition, with their best win coming against Mound Westonka. In addition to the early season Monticello loss, they also dropped games against the likes of Princeton and North Branch, and were drubbed by Denfeld a few weeks ago. I would like to see an upset and another new representative from 5A at state, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
What's amazing about that win against Mound Westonka is they were down 2 of their top 4 D, as well as their first line center Miller. Not that it really makes a difference, but I think that it shows how resilient the boys in green can be.

MrBoDangles
Posts: 4072
Joined: Tue Jan 27, 2009 9:32 pm

Re: Section 5A Thread

Post by MrBoDangles » Thu Feb 27, 2020 9:07 pm

Tough to take for them, but great season and game by Pine City. They’ve worked their arses off the last few years over the summers and they were so close... =D>

Duckguy13
Posts: 83
Joined: Thu Jan 03, 2019 11:59 pm

Re: Section 5A Thread

Post by Duckguy13 » Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:35 pm

They definitely worked their arses off, kudos to them, never quit. Great season!

Monticello 6-4

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