Early season comparison of Computer Rating Algorithms 12/22/2019

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LSQRANK
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Joined: Fri Nov 21, 2014 6:05 pm

Early season comparison of Computer Rating Algorithms 12/22/2019

Post by LSQRANK » Sun Dec 22, 2019 11:23 pm

Below is a listing that compares two types of computer rating/ranking algorithms: Least Squares & KRACH used by SportsSoft

The first column is the ranking positions.
The second column is the results using a Least Squares Adjustment of all games played by a network of high school teams in the upper midwest (ND, SD, MN & WI) The third column is the results using a Least Squares Adjustment of all games played by a network of high school teams in Minnesota.The fourth column is the results using a KRACH Adjustment of all games played by a network of high school teams in Minnesota.The fifth column are the W-L-T records of column 4

The data format used was YYYY MM DD Team1 Team2 Score1 Score2

All scores used were the final games scores of each contest, (ie. raw scores not adjusted for non-equal-strength goals, ENG & running time)

Explanation of the mathematics for both Least Squares and KRACH can be read in the SportSoft manual provided by the following link: https://www.researchgate.net/publicatio ... ser_Manual

Note: The Least Squares Adjustment treats the raw game data as though they represent elevation differences between engineering surveying benchmarks, so it primarily accounts for the score differential, ie. the margin that team1 beat team2, whereas the KRACH algorithm is primarily biased towards which team beat which other teams, ignoring the score differential altogether. Neither method is right nor wrong, but they both will tend to converge towards one another as more and more games are played within the studied network. The least squares method produces rating values that can be used to predict subsequent score differentials for games played in the future.

Enjoy the debate - Doc

Code: Select all

Early season comparison of Computer Rating Algorithms

Column 1 = Rank
Column 2 = Results using Least Squares Adjusment using all  games played Upper Midwest Network (ND,SD,MN,WI)
Column 3 = Results using Least Squares Adjusment using only games played by Minnesota HS Teams
Column 4 = Results using KRACH Algorithm         using only games played by Minnesota HS Teams
Column 5 = Win-Loss-Tie records (refers to column 4 ordering)


Data: Games played as of Dec. 22, 2019


Rank                 Combo (LSQRank)                Mn only (LSQRank)                  Mn only (KRACH)   ( W- L- T)
===================================================================================================================  
1                            Andover                      EdenPrairie                          Warroad   ( 8- 0- 0)  
2                        EdenPrairie                          Andover                St.CloudCathedral   ( 6- 1- 0)  
3                        Hill-Murray                      Hill-Murray                      EdenPrairie   ( 7- 0- 0)  
4                  St.CloudCathedral                St.CloudCathedral                            Orono   ( 7- 1- 1)  
5                      WhiteBearLake                    WhiteBearLake                   EastGrandForks   ( 7- 1- 2)  
6                  Cretin-DerhamHall                Cretin-DerhamHall                       Stillwater   ( 7- 1- 0)  
7                     LakevilleSouth                   LakevilleSouth                    WhiteBearLake   ( 8- 0- 1)  
8                             Blaine                           Blaine                          Andover   ( 6- 1- 0)  
9                         Hermantown                       Hermantown                   LakevilleSouth   ( 6- 1- 0)  
10                         Rosemount                        Rosemount                       Alexandria   ( 8- 2- 0)  

11                             Blake                            Blake                      Hill-Murray   ( 6- 1- 1)  
12                        MapleGrove                       MapleGrove                        Rosemount   ( 8- 1- 0)  
13                             Edina                            Edina                       MapleGrove   ( 6- 1- 0)  
14                  St.ThomasAcademy                 St.ThomasAcademy                       Hermantown   ( 6- 1- 1)  
15             Benilde-St.Margaret's            Benilde-St.Margaret's                            Blake   ( 6- 3- 0)  
16                           Warroad                          Warroad                       Burnsville   ( 4- 2- 1)  
17                           Wayzata                         Moorhead                   LakevilleNorth   ( 5- 2- 1)  
18                          Moorhead                          Wayzata                        PriorLake   ( 5- 2- 1)  
19                         PriorLake                        PriorLake                        Mahtomedi   ( 7- 2- 0)  
20                    LakevilleNorth                   LakevilleNorth                           Blaine   ( 5- 2- 0) 
 
21                             Orono                       DuluthEast                          Wayzata   ( 5- 3- 1)  
22                        DuluthEast                            Orono                 St.ThomasAcademy   ( 4- 3- 1)  
23                        Stillwater                       Stillwater                            Edina   ( 4- 4- 1)  
24                        HolyFamily                       HolyFamily                       DuluthEast   ( 5- 4- 0)  
25                        Minnetonka                       Minnetonka                Cretin-DerhamHall   ( 6- 2- 0)  
26                       GrandRapids                      GrandRapids                       Farmington   ( 3- 3- 1)  
27                            Chaska                   EastGrandForks                         Moorhead   ( 6- 2- 1)  
28                    EastGrandForks                           Chaska             Cloquet-Esko-Carlton   ( 5- 2- 1)  
29                         Mahtomedi                        Mahtomedi                         Eastview   ( 4- 4- 1)  
30                            Roseau                           Roseau                           Delano   ( 5- 3- 0) 
 
31                              STMA                             STMA                       HolyFamily   ( 4- 5- 0)  
32                          Eastview                         Eastview            Benilde-St.Margaret's   ( 4- 3- 2)  
33                          Hastings                         Hastings                       HolyAngels   ( 6- 1- 0)  
34                  RochesterCentury             Cloquet-Esko-Carlton                      GrandRapids   ( 4- 4- 0)  
35              Cloquet-Esko-Carlton                 RochesterCentury                         Hastings   ( 7- 1- 0)  
36                        Burnsville                       Burnsville                             STMA   ( 3- 3- 1)  
37                        HolyAngels                       HolyAngels                           Chaska   ( 4- 5- 1)  
38                   ThiefRiverFalls                     Totino-Grace                           Roseau   ( 6- 3- 0)  
39                      Totino-Grace                  ThiefRiverFalls                       Minnetonka   ( 3- 5- 0)  
40                             Eagan                            Eagan                            Eagan   ( 5- 3- 0)  

41                        Farmington                       Farmington                       Centennial   ( 3- 4- 0)  
42                        Centennial                       Centennial                         Owatonna   ( 6- 1- 0)  
43                        ForestLake                       ForestLake                     ChamplinPark   ( 6- 4- 0)  
44                      St.LouisPark               ElkRiver/Zimmerman                       ForestLake   ( 6- 1- 1)  
45                ElkRiver/Zimmerman                     St.LouisPark                      LittleFalls   ( 8- 2- 1)  
46                       LittleFalls                      LittleFalls                  ThiefRiverFalls   ( 5- 4- 1)  
47                        Alexandria                       Alexandria                    DuluthDenfeld   ( 6- 2- 1)  
48                         EastRidge                        EastRidge             BloomingtonJefferson   ( 3- 5- 0)  
49                     GentryAcademy                    GentryAcademy                   St.PaulJohnson   ( 7- 2- 0)  
50                        MoundsView                       MoundsView                    GentryAcademy   ( 8- 2- 0)  

51              BloomingtonJefferson             BloomingtonJefferson                    MoundWestonka   ( 8- 3- 1)  
52                          St.Cloud                         St.Cloud                     St.LouisPark   ( 4- 4- 0)  
53                            Delano                           Delano                         Brainerd   ( 3- 4- 1)  
54                          Owatonna                         Owatonna                     Totino-Grace   ( 5- 4- 0)  
55                            Rogers                           Rogers                       MoundsView   ( 4- 5- 0)  
56                      ChamplinPark                         Greenway                       Monticello   ( 6- 4- 0)  
57                          Greenway                    DuluthDenfeld                     SouthSt.Paul   ( 5- 3- 1)  
58                    St.PaulJohnson                     ChamplinPark                        EastRidge   ( 3- 7- 0)  
59                     DuluthDenfeld                         Brainerd                 RochesterCentury   ( 6- 1- 0)  
60                            Tartan                           Tartan                      AppleValley   ( 3- 5- 1)  

61                          Shakopee                         Shakopee                         Shakopee   ( 3- 6- 1)  
62                          Brainerd                            Breck                            Breck   ( 3- 5- 0)  
63                             Breck                    MoundWestonka                     PineCityArea   ( 8- 2- 0)  
64                   Eveleth-Gilbert                  Eveleth-Gilbert                         St.Cloud   ( 2- 4- 1)  
65                     MoundWestonka                   St.PaulJohnson                         Greenway   ( 2- 5- 0)  
66                         Roseville                        Roseville                       Northfield   ( 5- 5- 0)  
67                          Woodbury                         Woodbury                       Chanhassen   ( 5- 5- 0)  
68                           Bemidji                          Bemidji               InternationalFalls   ( 5- 2- 0)  
69                           Buffalo                          Buffalo                           Tartan   ( 4- 4- 0)  
70                        Monticello                       Monticello                          Buffalo   ( 3- 6- 0) 
 
71                  Armstrong/Cooper                 Armstrong/Cooper               ElkRiver/Zimmerman   ( 3- 7- 0)  
72                             Osseo                            Osseo                   KittsonCentral   ( 7- 1- 0)  
73                ParkofCottageGrove               ParkofCottageGrove                      Minneapolis   ( 4- 4- 1)  
74                    St.PaulAcademy                   St.PaulAcademy                  Eveleth-Gilbert   ( 6- 5- 0)  
75                       AppleValley                      AppleValley                       Hutchinson   ( 8- 4- 1)  
76                        Northfield                       Northfield                           Rogers   ( 3- 3- 1)  
77                       Minneapolis                       Chanhassen                         Marshall   ( 8- 3- 0)  
78                       MankatoEast                      MankatoEast                   St.PaulAcademy   ( 5- 4- 0)  
79                        Chanhassen                      Minneapolis                    Morris/Benson   ( 8- 1- 0)  
80                      SouthSt.Paul                     SouthSt.Paul                 Armstrong/Cooper   ( 5- 4- 1) 
 
81                         NewPrague                        NewPrague                        NewPrague   ( 2- 5- 2)  
82                      PineCityArea                     PineCityArea                      MankatoEast   ( 5- 3- 1)  
83                         Faribault                      NorthBranch                       RiverLakes   ( 5- 2- 0)  
84                       NorthBranch                         Irondale                           NewUlm   ( 6- 2- 0)  
85                          Irondale                        Faribault                         Irondale   ( 2- 5- 0)  
86                       MankatoWest                      MankatoWest                            Osseo   ( 2- 5- 0)  
87                            Simley                           Simley                      MankatoWest   ( 5- 3- 0)  
88                Sartell-St.Stephen               Sartell-St.Stephen                        Roseville   ( 3- 6- 0)  
89                          Marshall                         Marshall                          Bemidji   ( 1- 8- 0)  
90                            NewUlm                           NewUlm                      FergusFalls   ( 4- 6- 0)  

91                        Hutchinson               InternationalFalls                        Faribault   ( 6- 2- 0)  
92                InternationalFalls                       Hutchinson                         Woodbury   ( 1- 7- 1)  
93                         Crookston                        Crookston         Litchfield/Dassel-Cokato   ( 3- 3- 0)  
94                        RiverLakes                       RiverLakes               Sartell-St.Stephen   ( 2- 5- 0)  
95          Litchfield/Dassel-Cokato         Litchfield/Dassel-Cokato                      DodgeCounty   ( 6- 2- 0)  
96                        St.Francis                       St.Francis                ProvidenceAcademy   ( 5- 2- 0)  
97        Virginia/MountainIron-Buhl       Virginia/MountainIron-Buhl                      NorthBranch   ( 7- 2- 0)  
98                       DodgeCounty                          Proctor                   DuluthMarshall   ( 1- 7- 0)  
99                           Proctor                      DodgeCounty               ParkofCottageGrove   ( 0- 5- 1)  
100                   KittsonCentral                   DuluthMarshall                     RedLakeFalls   ( 6- 3- 0) 
 
101                    Morris/Benson                    Morris/Benson                     DetroitLakes   ( 4- 6- 0)  
102                   DuluthMarshall                       NorthShore                          Proctor   ( 5- 5- 0)  
103                    NorthernLakes                   KittsonCentral                       NorthShore   ( 3- 5- 0)  
104                    RochesterMayo                    NorthernLakes                           Simley   ( 2- 6- 0)  
105                ProvidenceAcademy                    RochesterMayo                       St.Francis   ( 3- 5- 0)  
106                       NorthShore                ProvidenceAcademy       Virginia/MountainIron-Buhl   ( 2- 8- 0)  
107            RochesterJohnMarshall                 Hibbing/Chisholm                          Luverne   ( 5- 3- 0)  
108                          Hopkins                          Hopkins                    NorthernLakes   ( 5- 3- 1)  
109               BloomingtonKennedy            RochesterJohnMarshall                  SaukRapids-Rice   ( 2- 6- 0)  
110                 Hibbing/Chisholm               BloomingtonKennedy                        AlbertLea   ( 3- 5- 0) 
 
111                        Princeton                        Princeton                     ChisagoLakes   ( 3- 4- 0)  
112                        AlbertLea                        AlbertLea                           Winona   ( 4- 4- 0)  
113                          Waconia                          Waconia                           Waseca   ( 5- 4- 0)  
114                            Anoka                            Anoka                          Waconia   ( 3- 6- 0)  
115                       CoonRapids                       CoonRapids                   SpringLakePark   ( 5- 4- 0)  
116     SouthwestChristian/Richfield     SouthwestChristian/Richfield                          Hopkins   ( 2- 7- 0)  
117                     RedLakeFalls                     DetroitLakes                      Mora/Milaca   ( 6- 4- 0)  
118                     DetroitLakes                          RedWing     SouthwestChristian/Richfield   ( 3- 5- 0)  
119                          RedWing                     RedLakeFalls            RochesterJohnMarshall   ( 1- 7- 0)  
120                      FergusFalls                      FergusFalls                   LakeoftheWoods   ( 3- 5- 0)  

121                      Mora/Milaca                      HenrySibley                   MinnesotaRiver   ( 4- 6- 0)  
122                      HenrySibley                     ChisagoLakes            Breckenridge/Wahpeton   ( 6- 3- 0)  
123                     ChisagoLakes                      Mora/Milaca               BloomingtonKennedy   ( 1- 7- 0)  
124                   SpringLakePark                          Luverne                        Crookston   ( 0- 8- 0)  
125                          Luverne                           Winona                         Fairmont   ( 2- 6- 0)  
126                           Waseca                           Waseca                          RedWing   ( 3- 5- 0)  
127                           Winona                   SpringLakePark                            Anoka   ( 1- 8- 0)  
128                  SaukRapids-Rice                  SaukRapids-Rice                    RochesterMayo   ( 1- 7- 0)  
129                   MinnesotaRiver                   MinnesotaRiver                   Bagley/Fosston   ( 2- 5- 0)  
130            Breckenridge/Wahpeton            Breckenridge/Wahpeton                      HenrySibley   ( 2- 6- 0)  

131                          Willmar                          Willmar                 Hibbing/Chisholm   ( 0- 6- 0)  
132                      Worthington              St.PaulHighlandPark                    PrairieCentre   ( 2- 6- 0)  
133                   LakeoftheWoods                   LakeoftheWoods                       CoonRapids   ( 1- 5- 0)  
134              St.PaulHighlandPark                      Worthington                        Princeton   ( 1- 6- 0)  
135                 MinnehahaAcademy                           Windom              St.PaulHighlandPark   ( 3- 5- 0)  
136                           Windom                 MinnehahaAcademy                           Windom   ( 1- 6- 1)  
137                 Wadena-DeerCreek                 Wadena-DeerCreek                 Wadena-DeerCreek   ( 1- 9- 1)  
138                 RochesterLourdes                 RochesterLourdes                          Willmar   ( 0- 6- 1)  
139                 LaCrescent-Hokah                    RedwoodValley                      Worthington   ( 2- 7- 0)  
140                    RedwoodValley                 Cambridge-Isanti                 Cambridge-Isanti   ( 2- 7- 0) 
 
141                 Cambridge-Isanti                    PrairieCentre                       ParkRapids   ( 1- 6- 0)  
142                    PrairieCentre                 LaCrescent-Hokah                   Becker/BigLake   ( 1- 6- 0)  
143                         Fairmont                         Fairmont                 LaCrescent-Hokah   ( 3- 5- 1)  
144                   Becker/BigLake                   Becker/BigLake                 MinnehahaAcademy   ( 1- 8- 0)  
145                   Bagley/Fosston                   Bagley/Fosston                    MooseLakeArea   ( 2- 7- 0)  
146                    MooseLakeArea                    MooseLakeArea                    RedwoodValley   ( 0- 6- 0)  
147                       ParkRapids                       ParkRapids                           Austin   ( 0- 6- 0)  
148                           Austin                           Austin                              Ely   ( 0- 4- 0)  
149                              Ely                              Ely                 RochesterLourdes   ( 0- 8- 0)  


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