AA Rankings for 12/1/19

[karl(east)]

After a week and a half of games, here’s the first set of in-season rankings. Signs of parity abound.

1. Eden Prairie (1-0)
-The Eagles showed some of their offensive potential as they put away a spirited Cretin squad in their opener. The Jackson Blake situation has become a question mark, but with everything else going on, that’s certainly not a reason to reconsider their top ranking at this point. They continue with their light early schedule with another one game week, albeit an interesting one.
This week—Fri vs. Hermantown (in St. Louis Park)

2. Rosemount (3-0)
-The Irish win over Minnetonka was one of the more impressive showings on the young season. They almost fell into an East Ridge trap in their second game, but rebounded with a convincing performance against Jefferson. Wins are wins, and on paper this team should be clear favorites in all of its games between now and its holiday tournament.
This week: Thurs at Shakopee, Sat vs. Prior Lake

3. Maple Grove (3-0)
-The Crimson nudge up a bit because they’re doing what many of the teams right below them are not: winning. They’ve shown they can score quickly and frequently in wins over Edina and Moorhead, and they also showed some resilience in an overtime win over Roseau. They now head into conference play.
This week: Thurs vs. Champlin Park

4. Andover (1-1)
-The Huskies split their opening bill with Blake, which is no serious indictment but also doesn’t help create any separation in the rankings. With the postponement of the Moorhead game, they have a two-week break between games heading into their 7AA grudge match with Duluth East.
This week: Sat at Duluth East

5. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (2-1)
-The Red Knights drop three spots after a surprise loss to Grand Rapids; their win over Edina, while important, also showed that there isn’t much of a gap between them and the other contenders in a tight 6AA. That said, they got an important win, and they also need to get healthy. They’ve got another game with a tough opponent this coming week.
This week: Sat vs. Hermantown

6. Blake (3-1)
-A split with Andover is a positive result for the Bears. They followed that up with workmanlike wins over Chaska an St. Thomas, which are enough to keep them afloat here. They now continue with a string of private school opponents that includes their next major test against Hill on Saturday.
This week: Tues vs. Holy Family, Sat vs. #8 Hill-Murray

7. Hill-Murray (1-0)
-The Pioneers logged a solid early season win over Blaine, finding ways to finish when the Bengals could not. They have a busy week ahead of them that includes a conference test against a Class A opponent and a battle with the team immediately above them, which should give us more top ten insights.
This week: Tues vs. Mahtomedi, Thurs vs. Simley, Sat at #6 Blake

8. Grand Rapids (2-0)
-The Thunderhawks have served early notice to the rest of the state after two wins over west metro powers. They were outshot in both games, but Carter Clafton has been equal to the task, and this group has enough interesting pieces offensively that it looks like 7AA won’t be the one-team race some expected. This week they venture to the northwest, which could give us some idea if they’re legitimate top ten material.
This week: Tues at Virginia, Fri at Roseau, Sat at Warroad

9. Blaine (1-1)
-The Bengals looked plenty competitive in their opening week. Finishing was a challenge at times, but they had their chances against Hill and found a way to edge Edina despite Carsen Richels’ absence. St. Michael-Albertville is their next opponent of note.
This week: Thurs vs. Coon Rapids, Sat at St. Michael-Albertville

10. Lakeville South (1-0)
-The Cougars took care of Chanhassen, but were deprived a chance at a more instructive game against Hermantown by snowfall. A visit to Duluth headlines a three-game week.
This week: Tues at Duluth East, Thurs at Eastview, Sat vs. Shakopee

11. White Bear Lake (2-0)
-The Bears are off to a strong start after steamrolling both Irondale and Duluth East. They have a chance to make a case for a top ten spot when they visit the Hornets on Saturday.
This week: Thurs vs. Woodbury, Sat at #12 Edina

12. Edina (1-3)
-The Hornets haven’t been half bad out of the gate, as all three losses have been narrow, and to good teams; if anything, the close Benilde loss is a sign that they’re plenty competitive within the section. Still, at a certain point, a team needs to win some games. They can get themselves back in the top ten conversation with a good result against White Bear this week.
This week: Mon at St. Louis Park, Sat vs. #11 White Bear Lake

13. Minnetonka (1-2)
-The Skippers didn’t get off a swimming start, as they were overpowered by Rosemount and couldn’t solve Grand Rapids. They got into the win column by knocking off Greenway. On paper they should win both of their games this week, but neither one is a completely safe bet.
This week: Thurs vs. Prior Lake, Sat at St. Thomas Academy

14. Moorhead (2-1)
-The Spuds’ date with Andover was delayed a month, but we got a pretty good picture of what this team will probably be in the Turkey Trot and a win over Brainerd: decent, solid defensively, capable of giving top teams good games but not quite on that level. They continue with a string of section opponents this week.
This week: Tues at Bemidji, Fri at Buffalo

15. Lakeville North (3-0)
-The Panthers are plugging along in the early going with respectable wins over Chaska and Holy Family. Their lone game this week is a section contest with Farmington.
This week: Sat at Farmington

The Next Ten

Stillwater (0-0)
-The late-starting Ponies have three games in their opening week, including a first game Tuesday against a decent Cloquet team.

Roseau (1-2)
-The Rams hobbled out of the gates some in a loss to Thief River Falls, but acquitted themselves quite well on a road trip south, as they gave Maple Grove a better game than section rival Moorhead did and then beat a decent Centennial team. They can make even more of an impression when they host Grand Rapids this week.

St. Thomas Academy (1-2)
-Like Roseau, the Cadets took a questionable early stumble against Eastview, but pulled out an impressive comeback in their win over Cretin and had a decent showing in a loss to Blake. Minnetonka looms as their next serious test.

Wayzata (1-3)
-The Trojans were competitive in narrow losses to Moorhead, Edina, and Hermantown and beat Duluth East, so they’re better than the record would suggest. St. Louis Park is their only game this week.

Centennial (0-1)
-The Cougars fell to Roseau in their opener, which is hard to gauge at this point. They head into Northwest Suburban action now and have trips to Osseo and Elk River this week.

Hastings (1-0)
-The Raiders rolled over Dodge County, which doesn’t tell us much, and lost a game with Mayo to the weather. Mahtomedi this Saturday is their first opponent of any real statewide significance on the schedule.

Cretin-Derham Hall (0-2)
-The Raiders had St. Thomas on the ropes before they coughed it up, and the Eden Prairie game went about as expected. The Matt Gleason show is as advertised, but they’ll need a lot more from their depth players to fight through a deep 6AA. They should be able to rack up some wins in conference play now.

Eagan (1-0)
-Beat New Prague 4-2, which isn’t remarkable result, but it’s a win when other teams around here are losing, so we’ll nudge the Wildcats into the top 25. Burnsville offers a test against another team in this tier this week.

Chaska (1-2-1)
-The Hawks did a little of everything in their opening week and a half. The highlight was a shutout of an Eastview team that beat St. Thomas, but they also got handled by Lakeville North; a loss to Blake and a tie Cloquet are respectable but hardly thrilling results. This week they’ll try to avoid a repeat of last season’s loss to Eveleth.

Cloquet (1-0-1)
-Tied Chaska, which is a more impressive result than anything anyone else in this area has to date, so we’ll give the Lumberjacks a plug. Stillwater headlines a three-game week that will give us a little more to work with here.

[InThePipes]

Well done as always Karl

[ryguyMN]

Pretty solid, Karl. You could make an argument for Blake at 5 and BSM at 6 as both teams feel similar this early in the season. Will be interesting to see if Rapids is a trend or mirage. Can’t remember the last time Edina started 1-3.

[RoseauHockeyFan]

Great work!

[WestMetro]

Looks about right to me also . Nice work, a lot of manhours these first few weeks!

As usual , at the Tonka Rosemount game last weekend the crowd was lined up halfway around the upper track waiting to talk to Karl in person to get his insights while he made a rare appearance in the metro . Got so bad Danny had to hand out numbers to keep everyone in line !

The holiday tournaments are going to be very interesting this year , to see who starts emerging against good competition over a few days .

[northwoods oldtimer]

Looks about right to me also . Nice work, a lot of manhours these first few weeks!

As usual , at the Tonka Rosemount game last weekend the crowd was lined up halfway around the upper track waiting to talk to Karl in person to get his insights while he made a rare appearance in the metro . Got so bad Danny had to hand out numbers to keep everyone in line !

The holiday tournaments are going to be very interesting this year , to see who starts emerging against good competition over a few days .

Agree Westy looking forward to Edina Classic as always. A good test and barometer, 3 tough games in 3 days. Intrigued to see how the young sophomores from Rapids hold up to the metro test. December is upon us a very fun hockey month indeed!

[kniven]

Amsoil arena wants to book KarlEast for Sunday concerts throughout the high school hockey season. The line for tickets will extend from Amsoil to Cloquet. And Bentleyville wants KarlEast to fill in for Santa this holiday season. KarlEast will hand out his top ten lists instead of gifts.

[karl(east)]

Pretty solid, Karl. You could make an argument for Blake at 5 and BSM at 6 as both teams feel similar this early in the season. Will be interesting to see if Rapids is a trend or mirage. Can’t remember the last time Edina started 1-3.

Yeah, I gave some thought to the order there but in the end decided not to drop BSM too far based off one loss to a Grand Rapids team that's looking pretty good. We'll know more on the order there after Blake plays Hill this week!

And, lol, good to see you at Pagel last weekend, WestMetro. Fun to be back in rinks!

[Slap Shot]

Losses to #2 and #8 are crushing apparently.

[InThePipes]

Losses to #2 and #8 are crushing apparently.

I've wondered why there was this top-10 fascination with them to begin with. They lost A LOT from last years team and even though they have a bazillion HSEL players (for some reason) this was never a great group during their youth years (not that the youth years means everything of course).

[Eastgreaser]

I quit reading when a team with a 1-3 record was ranked in top 10. I don’t care who you narrowly lost to...you earn your spot back in the rankings by winning, not narrowly losing.

[7TIMECHAMPS]

I quit reading when a team with a 1-3 record was ranked in top 10. I don’t care who you narrowly lost to...you earn your spot back in the rankings by winning, not narrowly losing.

Which team are you referring to? Lol

[elliott70]

Wayzata or at first Minnetonka

[7TIMECHAMPS]

Wayzata or at first Minnetonka

Neither are in the top 10?

[elliott70]

Minnetonka was if I remember right, but think they are complaining about those two teams.

[elliott70]

Minnetonka was 6 in preseason.

[Eastgreaser]

Sorry...fat fingers. Edina at 12...I have no doubt their record will get better but seriously...Earn it with wins.

[7TIMECHAMPS]

Minnetonka was if I remember right, but think they are complaining about those two teams.

If they are referring to the preseason rankings that is an impossibly high standard. None of the top ten teams can stumble out of the gate or you lose credibility?

Saying that it doesn’t matter who a loss is to is laughable to me. Does Benilde blowing out Marshall 11-0 mean a lot?

[raidergrad72]

Grand Rapids' strong showing early on makes their holiday tournament to Braemar in before Christmas pretty interesting with at least 2 of the teams. Saw that our resident rank expert didn't have Elk River even in the top 20.
GRs game at Greenway Jan. 11 right now looks like a real battle. After a long wait fun times are here again!

[karl(east)]

Seems like we have a version of this debate each season: how much do we balance a couple results early in the season with expectations and still produce coherent rankings? My defense has always been that we don't overreact to one week, especially against good competition. None of Edina's losses (competitive games vs. #3, #5, and #9) are bad, and they've passed the eye test of a top 15, if not a top 10 team. I think the point of human rankings is that we can see past records and get some sense of how a team looks, both with my own eyes and through my trusted spies on this forum and beyond. Every now and then there's a misfire, but a majority of the time, it's more or less right. Does anyone really think the credentials of a Lakeville North or Roseau or STA to date are better than Edina's, or that they wouldn't have the same record if they'd played the same schedule?

On another note, yeah, the Edina Holiday Classic got noticeably more interesting with Grand Rapids' performance so far. Elk River has a couple players that could make them relevant, but they need to avoid losing to teams like St. Cloud to prove that.

[kniven]

Seems like we have a version of this debate each season: how much do we balance a couple results early in the season with expectations and still produce coherent rankings? My defense has always been that we don't overreact to one week, especially against good competition. None of Edina's losses (competitive games vs. #3, #5, and #9) are bad, and they've passed the eye test of a top 15, if not a top 10 team. I think the point of human rankings is that we can see past records and get some sense of how a team looks, both with my own eyes and through my trusted spies on this forum and beyond. Every now and then there's a misfire, but a majority of the time, it's more or less right. Does anyone really think the credentials of a Lakeville North or Roseau or STA to date are better than Edina's, or that they wouldn't have the same record if they'd played the same schedule?

On another note, yeah, the Edina Holiday Classic got noticeably more interesting with Grand Rapids' performance so far. Elk River has a couple players that could make them relevant, but they need to avoid losing to teams like St. Cloud to prove that.

[Slap Shot]

Minnetonka was if I remember right, but think they are complaining about those two teams.

I wasn't complaining per se about Tonka - more having fun with the tumble despite playing Rosemount (#2) tough for 2.5 periods (while only going 1 for 6 on PP) and losing to GR (#8) in OT.

Not to worry though - if they're worthy of getting back into the Top 10 they'll play their way back, none of which will matter much in March anyway.

[goldy313]

STA opts up and had a number of key kids playing football.

[O-townClown]

Blake looked very good burying The Fam, but today was buzzsawed by the East Side choirboys. My takeaways:
* Pierre is an elite player. Seeing him so good at this stage of sophomore season reminds me of my impressions of Brink two years ago.
* Team is deep. I think based on what I've seen so far I'd take Hill over Benilde. Neither roster has much of a drop-off.
* Remington Keopple will be the difference in a lot of games. As good as I've seen.

Very good contest ending in a tie when Edina hosted White Bear Lake.
* Edina's most effective forward line featured DeVoe & Stone who weren't on initial roster after tryouts.
* Hogg played well.
* Roed is an extremely good player, and plays well with Rose & Newpower.
* A lack of scoring chances beyond the Bears top line will be a problem when they face any Top 5 type team.
* Both of these teams will kick around between 7-11 ranked in my estimation. Solid, but short of great.

I can't wait to see Eden Prairie in person. I know their roster real well and wonder if they compare to the Edina teams the past two seasons, or Minnetonka. Also am looking forward to catching Rosemount.