AA Rankings for 2/10/19

[karl(east)]

One week to go…

1. Edina (19-2-1)
-The Hornets have been, without a doubt, the state’s strongest team down the stretch. This past week, that performance included a comfortable win over White Bear Lake and a tense affair with Minnetonka that no one should be surprised to see repeat itself in March. Unlike some past highly-ranked Hornet editions that blew out nearly all comers, this squad often has to battle to the end and play tight defense, and that may serve them well in the playoffs. Before they get there, though, they have yet another challenging week ahead of them, and will have to work to maintain this spot in the end-of-regular-season rankings.
This week: Thurs vs. #8 Eden Prairie, Sat at #15 Wayzata

2. Blaine (16-2-2)
-The Bengals withstood an early challenge from their old coach and Brainerd, and lost a potentially interesting game against Totino-Grace to weather. Their final week will include one last test against a ranked AA team in Hill, plus a game against upset-minded Champlin Park.
This week: Tues vs. #12 Hill-Murray, Thurs at Champlin Park, Sat vs. Osseo

3. Minnetonka (20-2-2)
-The Skippers fell to the rival Hornets for a second time in Lake Conference play, which doesn’t affect their ranking here. The offensive output against teams not named Hopkins in recent weeks remains a concern. They’ll have a chance to right the ship some against a team that tied them in their first meeting.
This week: Thurs at #15 Wayzata

4. Andover (20-2-1)
-The Huskies, who seem like the somewhat forgotten top four team right now, are back on the right track after a weak stretch. They shut out a top-end Class A team, and are unlikely to be tested much this coming week. How will they handle their newfound favorite status in the playoffs?
This week: Tues vs. Coon Rapids, Thurs at Irondale

5. St. Thomas Academy (20-3-1)
-The Cadets’ flattening of Mahtomedi is a good sign heading into sections. They have one last semi-interesting game this week; if nothing else, North is a common opponent with many of their South Suburban section rivals, and on par with the sort of teams they’ll probably see in the semifinals.
This week: Thurs vs. Lakeville North

6. Maple Grove (16-4-1)
-The Crimson got back on a winning track against Elk River, and move up as others lose. They have a busy final week, and the Duluth East game will give them a chance to reassert themselves against a top team after some recent lumps. Their game with Coon Rapids is still listed as postponed, not canceled, so I guess there’s still some chance it gets played, too.
This week: Tues at #13 Duluth East, Thurs at Spring Lake Park, Sat vs. Irondale

7. White Bear Lake (17-4-1)
-The Bears did a passable job of skating with Edina, but lack the Hornets’ finishing ability and top-end talent, which leaves them treading water here. On paper they should clean up this week, though Century beat them a season ago and Woodbury gave them all they could handle in January.
This week: Tues at Rochester Century, Thurs at Woodbury

8. Eden Prairie (13-8-2)
-The Eagles have their moments of vulnerability, as this past week’s loss to Stillwater shows all too well. They did, however, rebound with solid wins over Wayzata and Benilde, and few can match the difficulty of the schedule they’ve played in recent weeks. They get a third crack at Edina this week as they wrap things up.
This week: Thurs at #1 Edina, Sat vs. Hopkins

9. Rosemount (19-3)
-A convincing win over Eagan sews up the 2-seed in 3AA for the Irish and avenges the earlier loss. Their schedule makes them hard to judge against the likes of an Eden Prairie, but they have at the very least shown they have a fighting chance at a section title. It’s all 1AA opponents in their final week.
This week: Tues at Lakeville North, Thurs vs. Lakeville South, Sat at Farmington

10. Moorhead (16-6-2)
-The Spuds didn’t set the world on fire in a 2-0 win over St. Cloud, but got the win nonetheless. This week they’ll look to maintain frontrunner status in section play with a game against Brainerd, and will close out with Hill in a game that will have a say over this top ten fringe of the rankings.
This week: Tues vs. Brainerd, Sat at #12 Hill-Murray

11. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (15-6)
-The Red Knights were slow to get on track against Eden Prairie, which tips them just out of the top ten. They’ve shown some flashes of potential, but have yet to beat anyone above them here, so this ranking comes pretty naturally. They certainly don’t get to coast into the playoffs with a four-game week, including a rematch with high-flying Chaska and respectable St. Michael.
This week: Mon vs. #14 Chaska, Tues vs. St. Michael-Albertville, Thurs at St. Louis Park, Sat vs. Bloomington Kennedy

12. Hill-Murray (14-6-2)
-The Pioneers won their two games this past week in a steady if hardly impressive fashion. I have some question marks about this team right now, and with a couple of tough opponents due up in the season’s final week, I may get some answers before long.
This week: Tues at #2 Blaine, Sat vs. #10 Moorhead

13. Duluth East (14-6-2)
-The Hounds’ solid defensive effort against Cloquet was a positive sign, but snowflakes did in a trip to Lakeville South, so they’ve now played just two games in the past two weeks. The Maple Grove game Tuesday will be a significant bellwether heading into the playoffs: has this team overcome its January struggles to become a serious playoff threat, or does the inconsistency linger?
This week: Mon vs. Superior, Tues vs. #6 Maple Grove

14. Chaska (15-7)
-The Hawks steamrolled Jefferson in their only action this past week. This team has no trouble blowing out respectable opponents when they’re on, but soon we’ll get to see if they can deliver against a front-line opponent with the section on the line. Monday’s collision with Benilde at Mariucci will be an excellent test of their ability to do that.
This week: Mon at #11 Benilde-St. Margaret’s, Thurs vs. Bloomington Kennedy, Sat at Chanhassen

15. Wayzata (12-8-3)
-The Trojans let a competitive game slip away against Eden Prairie. They’ve now won just two of their past seven, and it doesn’t get any easier this coming week, either. They’ve shown flashes of an ability to knock off top teams, but will need to put that together in a more consistent way to make me think they have a realistic shot in 6AA. A win in either game this week could go a long way toward that end; even if they lose both, I think the gap between them and the teams behind them here would allow them to stay in the top 15 heading into sections.
This week: Thurs vs. #3 Minnetonka, Sat vs. #1 Edina

The Next Ten

Roseau (16-4-2)
-The Rams appear to have recovered from their lull a couple of weeks ago, and did what they needed to do against a couple of 8A’s best this past week. If there’s any doubt left that they’re the 2-seed in 8AA, this week’s game with Bemidji should seal it.

Brainerd (14-8)
-The Warriors’ week had a little of everything, as an interesting section game with St. Michael-Albertville got wiped out, they beat an Alexandria team they’d lost to in December, and they lost to Blaine. This week’s game with Moorhead gives them one last, good chance to see where they stand in a complicated 8AA.

Buffalo (13-6-3)
-The Bison are on the move following a tie with Blake and a slaughter of respectable St. Michael-Albertville. Their results going back to mid-December are consistent with those of a top 15 team, though I can’t put them above Brainerd given their two losses to the Warriors.

Blake (15-6-2)
-A tie with Buffalo keeps the Bears puttering about in this section of the rankings. They’ve got their battle with Cretin for playoff home ice this week.

Eagan (15-7)
-The Wildcats couldn’t collect a second win over Rosemount, and as a result are probably the 3-seed in 3AA. They should win out against the bottom-feeding teams of the South Suburban.

Cloquet (13-10)
-The Jacks didn’t generate much in a potential semifinal preview against Duluth East. Like the Hounds, their week ahead could be telling. They have Grand Rapids, a potential first round opponent who they handled easily the first time around but has been playing well lately, and a final test against Hermantown’s high-flying offense.

Stillwater (13-9)
-The Ponies played their way back into contention after solid wins over Eden Prairie and Cretin-Derham Hall this past week; lest we forget, they lost to both White Bear and Hill by only one goal and points this past season. A busy final week includes Class A power Mahtomedi and Holy Family, so if they win out, they’ll have some serious momentum heading into sections.

Cretin-Derham Hall (13-7-1)
-As long as this team kept beating all the teams below it and had all its losses to good teams, it wasn’t too hard to justify having this team hovering around the back of the top 15; after the loss to Stillwater, that gets harder. The performance just hasn’t been there this season. They do, however, get a chance to get a home game against Blake in sections this week, along with two other likely wins.

Eastview (12-10-1)
-The Lightning have quietly gone 11-2-1 after a 1-8 start. That stretch includes wins over Lakeville North and Eagan, while both of their losses to Rosemount came by one goal; they even gave St. Thomas a respectable game back in December. The recent win over Burnsville has them in position for a top-4 seed in the section, and I think they deserve to be rewarded for their recent surge. They close with Apple Valley and a Prior Lake team they tied a short while back.

Champlin Park (17-5)
-The Rebels make their way back into the top 25 after a win over Centennial to secure the 3-seed in 5AA. They’ve taken their lumps, but on the whole it’s been an impressive season, and this week’s battle with Blaine will give us an idea of where they stand relative to the top two as they head into sections.

Speaking of sections, here’s a final tour of them all as we await seeding information:

1AA
Hastings
Lakeville North
Lakeville South
Rochester Century
-The snow did not help matters in our attempts to sort out this section, which is now devoid of top 25 teams, as it forced the cancellation of Hastings’ game with Hill and Century’s game with Northfield. Because of that, I’ll default back to what I’ve had in past updates, with the caveat that I could still see Century going higher if the coaches choose to reward that strong record. This week’s Battle of Lakeville could have some effect as well: a South win could push the Cougars to the 2-seed, while a second North win might strengthen the Panthers’ case as the 2-seed and push South down to #4. No matter what, this remains one of the least predictable sections given the lack of common opponents or really distinguishing talent. Hastings’ 0-0 tie with Albert Lea, which dropped them from the rankings, makes me think the Lakevilles are probably still the superior teams here, but time will tell.

2AA
1 Minnetonka
14 Chaska
8 Eden Prairie
Prior Lake
-Seeding here has been settled for a while save for the 4-seed, where weather cost us a Prior Lake-Holy Family game that would have decided home ice in the quarterfinals this past week. Given their comparable records I’m giving the Lakers the nudge since they have a couple of quality wins against AA competition while the Fire does not, but this could certainly go either way.

3AA
5 St. Thomas Academy
9 Rosemount
20 Eagan
24 Eastview
-This section should be set now. Rosemount should now have the 2-seed locked up after the win over Eagan, and Eastview, with its win over Burnsville and strong close to the regular season, should have enough on their record to grab the 4-seed, and a somewhat interesting one at that.

4AA
8 White Bear Lake
12 Hill-Murray
22 Stillwater
Irondale
-Stillwater’s win over Eden Prairie showed a flash of potential from the Ponies that we haven’t really seen otherwise this season. Beyond that, this one was pretty much set a while ago: the Bears are the clear number one, but Hill and Stillwater are certainly within striking distance, and we’re likely in for another entertaining affair in the section final.

5AA
2 Blaine
6 Maple Grove
25 Champlin Park
Centennial
-Champlin’s win over Centennial settles the order for the 3- and 4-seeds, which was the only outstanding question here; while Blaine and Maple Grove split their meetings, Blaine’s overall performance has created enough separation to claim the top seed. If it’s those two in the section final it should be an excellent game, though this section has a habit of throwing up surprises in the semis.

6AA
1 Edina
11 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
15 Wayzata
19 Blake
23 Cretin-Derham Hall
-This week’s Cretin-Blake meeting will settle the 4-seed. Otherwise, just as in 2AA, this one has been clear for a while, with an elite Lake Conference team at the top, an upset-minded Lake team as the 3-seed, an interloper from the Metro West looking to crash the party as the 2-seed, and an uncertain battle for the 4/5 seeds to get a distant shot at a semifinal upset.

7AA
4 Andover
13 Duluth East
21 Cloquet
Forest Lake
-Here’s another section where the top three are locked in and some question remains about the 4-seed. The loss of the Stillwater-Forest Lake game (assuming it truly is canceled, or not played before the final QRF), a likely loss for the Rangers, may be a killer for the chase pack, but there’s still some chance Elk River and Grand Rapids could crawl a little higher in QRF.

8AA
10 Moorhead
16 Roseau
17 Brainerd
18 Buffalo
-The top three here are probably set also. Hard-charging Buffalo, with its win over STMA, should now have a case for the 4-seed despite the loss to Bemidji. Despite that December win, I don’t think Bemidji’s overall credentials can justify more than a 6-seed unless the Lumberjacks do something against Roseau this week. Once again, this remains one of the more interesting sections, as even likely 7-seed St. Cloud has been competitive with the top two, and the tightness of the rankings in the 2-4 area shows how wide open this could be.

[RoseauHockeyFan]

First, and foremost, I want to say I love reading your rankings each Sunday. I very much appreciate the time and thought you obviously put into it.

Second, as a Roseau hockey fan, I have to point out that Moorhead isn’t perfect in section play, as they lost to Roseau 6-2 back in December. :-}

[elliott70]

Also, I don't think Brainerd plays Brainerd this week.
Otherwise, great job.

[hockey59]

Also, I don't think Brainerd plays Brainerd this week.
Otherwise, great job.

Yeah, well, BSM didn’t play EP at 3pm Saturday (either) as I realized when I arrived at 3pm EP CC and a girls U15 game was in progress on the main rink But I had to drive down to that side of the metro anyway for Tonka vs Edina so Jimmys received pregame patron

[Section 8 guy]

It’ll be interesting to see how things shake out in 8AA in the 3-5 spots. I think the STMA Brainerd game on Monday still plays a big role in how it settles. Buffalos overall body of work warrants the 4 seed but this section generally emphasizes section play above all else and Buffalos section record is 3-5-1. If STMA loses to Brainerd they are probably the 5. If they win, The whole 3-5 group becomes a mess.

[karl(east)]

Corrections made to the two errors caught above, thanks! (Though presumably Brainerd will play Brainerd in practice?)

[elliott70]

Corrections made to the two errors caught above, thanks! (Though presumably Brainerd will play Brainerd in practice?)

Ok

[Section 8 guy]

I hate to pile on.......but Buffalo didn’t lose to Buffalo either.

Great job as always Karl!

[karl(east)]

I hate to pile on.......but Buffalo didn’t lose to Buffalo either.

Great job as always Karl!

Yikes, my 8AA brain was totally jumbled last night!

Agree on the importance of STMA-Brainerd, especially considering the value the coaches place on in-section games.

[elliott70]

I think any of the top 6 could be state champs.

[Green and White Fan]

These ratings make sense. I was just looking at PageStat and since Roseau beat Brainerd, Brainerd has move up to 20th and Roseau has dropped to 27th. Not quite following that one!

[goldy313]

I am interested in what you do with Hastings this week, they put Farmington into running time, neither top 20 teams Eagan or Rosemount have done that. The Raiders results have flaws but a long football season contributed to that. Are they elite? No, but probably exist in the top 20 range.

[BP]

I am interested in what you do with Hastings this week, they put Farmington into running time, neither top 20 teams Eagan or Rosemount have done that. The Raiders results have flaws but a long football season contributed to that. Are they elite? No, but probably exist in the top 20 range.

But they are coming off an OT win against an average SSP team and a tie to Albert Lea. They also lost to East Ridge a few weeks ago. Hard team to judge - that's for sure.

[bardown27]

I am interested in what you do with Hastings this week, they put Farmington into running time, neither top 20 teams Eagan or Rosemount have done that. The Raiders results have flaws but a long football season contributed to that. Are they elite? No, but probably exist in the top 20 range.

But they are coming off an OT win against an average SSP team and a tie to Albert Lea. They also lost to East Ridge a few weeks ago. Hard team to judge - that's for sure.

Like I said in the Thursday games thread, Goldy makes it seem as if Hastings has them in running time for an extended period, when realistically Hastings scored two goals in the last minute of the game to put Farmington in running time for the last 15 seconds of the game. Both Eagan and Rosemount have games left against Farmington, so they could still put them in running time (which Goldy mentioned they hadn't). Although Eagan is without arguably their best forward in Sherek, and Rosemount is without Linnerooth.

Don't get me wrong, Hastings has put together a very nice season, with McCarville being the backbone and keeping them in a lot of games in net, but it's hard for me to justify them being the 1 seed when they don't really play that tough of a schedule. Mahtomedi, St. Thomas and Eagan are their three toughest games, and although the scores may be close, they were vastly outplayed in two of the three games. Depending on the Lakeville North vs South game tomorrow and the Mayo vs Hastings game, I see seedings for 1AA as follows:

1. North
2. South
3. Hastings
4. Century
5. Mayo
6. Owatonna
7. Farmington
8. John Marshall
9. Dodge County

[BP]

I am interested in what you do with Hastings this week, they put Farmington into running time, neither top 20 teams Eagan or Rosemount have done that. The Raiders results have flaws but a long football season contributed to that. Are they elite? No, but probably exist in the top 20 range.

But they are coming off an OT win against an average SSP team and a tie to Albert Lea. They also lost to East Ridge a few weeks ago. Hard team to judge - that's for sure.

Like I said in the Thursday games thread, Goldy makes it seem as if Hastings has them in running time for an extended period, when realistically Hastings scored two goals in the last minute of the game to put Farmington in running time for the last 15 seconds of the game. Both Eagan and Rosemount have games left against Farmington, so they could still put them in running time (which Goldy mentioned they hadn't). Although Eagan is without arguably their best forward in Sherek, and Rosemount is without Linnerooth.

Don't get me wrong, Hastings has put together a very nice season, with McCarville being the backbone and keeping them in a lot of games in net, but it's hard for me to justify them being the 1 seed when they don't really play that tough of a schedule. Mahtomedi, St. Thomas and Eagan are their three toughest games, and although the scores may be close, they were vastly outplayed in two of the three games. Depending on the Lakeville North vs South game tomorrow and the Mayo vs Hastings game, I see seedings for 1AA as follows:

1. North
2. South
3. Hastings
4. Century
5. Mayo
6. Owatonna
7. John Marshall
8. Dodge County

You forgot to seed Farmington

[bardown27]

But they are coming off an OT win against an average SSP team and a tie to Albert Lea. They also lost to East Ridge a few weeks ago. Hard team to judge - that's for sure.

Like I said in the Thursday games thread, Goldy makes it seem as if Hastings has them in running time for an extended period, when realistically Hastings scored two goals in the last minute of the game to put Farmington in running time for the last 15 seconds of the game. Both Eagan and Rosemount have games left against Farmington, so they could still put them in running time (which Goldy mentioned they hadn't). Although Eagan is without arguably their best forward in Sherek, and Rosemount is without Linnerooth.

Don't get me wrong, Hastings has put together a very nice season, with McCarville being the backbone and keeping them in a lot of games in net, but it's hard for me to justify them being the 1 seed when they don't really play that tough of a schedule. Mahtomedi, St. Thomas and Eagan are their three toughest games, and although the scores may be close, they were vastly outplayed in two of the three games. Depending on the Lakeville North vs South game tomorrow and the Mayo vs Hastings game, I see seedings for 1AA as follows:

1. North
2. South
3. Hastings
4. Century
5. Mayo
6. Owatonna
7. John Marshall
8. Dodge County

You forgot to seed Farmington

Fixed

[green4]

Like I said in the Thursday games thread, Goldy makes it seem as if Hastings has them in running time for an extended period, when realistically Hastings scored two goals in the last minute of the game to put Farmington in running time for the last 15 seconds of the game. Both Eagan and Rosemount have games left against Farmington, so they could still put them in running time (which Goldy mentioned they hadn't). Although Eagan is without arguably their best forward in Sherek, and Rosemount is without Linnerooth.

Don't get me wrong, Hastings has put together a very nice season, with McCarville being the backbone and keeping them in a lot of games in net, but it's hard for me to justify them being the 1 seed when they don't really play that tough of a schedule. Mahtomedi, St. Thomas and Eagan are their three toughest games, and although the scores may be close, they were vastly outplayed in two of the three games. Depending on the Lakeville North vs South game tomorrow and the Mayo vs Hastings game, I see seedings for 1AA as follows:

1. North
2. South
3. Hastings
4. Century
5. Mayo
6. Owatonna
7. John Marshall
8. Dodge County

You forgot to seed Farmington

Fixed

Hastings still plays Mayo on Saturday. They need to win that game to have a shot at the one seed. If they lose they could fall to the 5 seed I would guess.

[bardown27]

You forgot to seed Farmington

Fixed

Hastings still plays Mayo on Saturday. They need to win that game to have a shot at the one seed. If they lose they could fall to the 5 seed I would guess.

That's why I said "Depending on the Lakeville North vs South game tomorrow and the Mayo vs Hastings game"

[goldy313]

I can’t see Hastings falling below South or Century. Century choose to not make up the Farmington game, meaning their toughest opponent the entire season was Mayo. Century has a 6-1 loss to Albert Lea and a 7-3 loss to Duluth Marshall. South has a losing record

I don’t think Hastings is the best team in 1AA but barring a complete meltdown against Mayo I think they have done enough to earn the #1 seed.

Assuming North beats South....
1-Hastings
2-North .....mostly based on common opponents
3-Century
4-South
5-Mayo
6-Owatonna
7-Farmington
8 JM
9- Dodge County.

If South beats North I would make them #3
If Mayo beats Hastings and North wins I would put Mayo #4 and South #5

If North or South played Century’s schedule I believe they would have a better record than Century does. I can’t say the same if the played Hastings schedule.

I would love to see the Lakeville schools either 2 and 3 or 1 and 4.

[Jeffy95]

I can’t see Hastings falling below South or Century. Century choose to not make up the Farmington game, meaning their toughest opponent the entire season was Mayo. Century has a 6-1 loss to Albert Lea and a 7-3 loss to Duluth Marshall. South has a losing record

I don’t think Hastings is the best team in 1AA but barring a complete meltdown against Mayo I think they have done enough to earn the #1 seed.

Assuming North beats South....
1-Hastings
2-North .....mostly based on common opponents
3-Century
4-South
5-Mayo
6-Owatonna
7-Farmington
8 JM
9- Dodge County.

If South beats North I would make them #3
If Mayo beats Hastings and North wins I would put Mayo #4 and South #5

If North or South played Century’s schedule I believe they would have a better record than Century does. I can’t say the same if the played Hastings schedule.

I would love to see the Lakeville schools either 2 and 3 or 1 and 4.

QRF for this section. Because I dont' think anyone else has posted it. If i'm being repetitive, apologies in advance....

25. Rochester Century 98.6
26. Hastings 95.2
32. Lakeville North 89.9
36. Rochester Mayo 81.2
37. Lakeville South
45. Owatonna
57. Farmington
66. Rochester JM
67. Dodge County

For a guy who watched Dougie Z play a lot of games, it's sad to see JM down on these rankings. Yes, Hastings has done enough to win this Section. But so has Century.

Their within the QRF tiebreaker, so I went to check the head to head. Unless MN Hockey hub is wrong, they didn't play each other???????? That seems pretty odd.....

Let's see what the coaches think. But we're all biased and self interested if we're being honest.

[blueblood]

With the South win over North, a team other than a Lakeville will get the top seed in 1AA. Not playing the Rochester schools or Hastings did not pan out for them this year.

[Jeffy95]

With the South win over North, a team other than a Lakeville will get the top seed in 1AA. Not playing the Rochester schools or Hastings did not pan out for them this year.

You think North would have got it if they won? Did Hastings and Century play each other????? Can anybody answer that?

[blueblood]

1AA is interesting section with the dynamics of South Suburban conference vs Big 9. Both have large number of conference games and all Rochester schools playing in the Kiwanis tourney. Doesn’t leave much room for intra (or is it inter?) sectional scheduling.

Had North won, they would have a case, albeit, a small one for top seed.

Very interesting section playoffs are in store. Would I be surprised if it’s N vs S in final, Same with a Hastings vs a Rochester school in finals.

Good luck to all 1AA teams.

[goldy313]

Century and Hastings did not play each other.

I think had North beat South they would have gotten the #1 or #2 seed, losing probably opened the door for Century to get a top 2 seed. It will be interesting how the seeds end up as you could make a legitimate argument to seed Century anywhere #1 through #4, the rest are pretty much locked into a narrow margin.

Getting the #1 seed is huge because there is a clear distinction between JM and Dodge County and the other 7 teams.