TheNightman wrote: ↑Wed Dec 05, 2018 12:30 am
Moorhead is better than expected but I still think the Brainerd Fightin' Andreses pull it out.
I would like to join that bandwagon Elliot but I think the Worriors will struggle to find consistency. At 2-3 can the Aus rally the boys
to the Saintly city?
Placing a sell on my Worrior stock
The Wizzard of Aus has this group of Worriors playing like snowflakes (a kinder gentler version of the previous regime) I wouldn't bet a lot of dough on Brainerd making very much noise in the sectional playoffs But there is a silver lining, just wait until this group of Mites get to high school
TheNightman wrote: ↑Wed Dec 05, 2018 12:30 am
Moorhead is better than expected but I still think the Brainerd Fightin' Andreses pull it out.
I would like to join that bandwagon Elliot but I think the Worriors will struggle to find consistency. At 2-3 can the Aus rally the boys
to the Saintly city?
Placing a sell on my Worrior stock
The Wizzard of Aus has this group of Worriors playing like snowflakes (a kinder gentler version of the previous regime) I wouldn't bet a lot of dough on Brainerd making very much noise in the sectional playoffs But there is a silver lining, just wait until this group of Mites get to high school
HUGE Game for the Brainerd today, chance to make some noise
QRF is irrelevant when it comes to seeding section 8AA.
Seeding is done by coaches vote. So unless the coaches are looking at this to get their opinion of teams it is meaningless.
Coaches voting - we all would like to think that the coaches vote based on who they think is the best; we all think they vote on who they would prefer playing....
Anyway if the coaches were to vote today (in my eyes) the ranking would be:
1 Roseau - based on a rather convincing win over Moorhead and a 4-0 record
2 Moorhead - based on a 3-1 record, a win over Brainerd doing respectable against good AA teams outside the district.
3 Brainerd - being 3-1 in section and no bad losses
After that it is a little tougher:
StM-A - has a nice record but no real good wins, 2-0 in the section but OT over St Cloud is not convincing and Rogers and a loss to North Branch.
They play everyone else in the section so they can vastly improve their position (or lose it).
Buffalo - The only thing that stands out is a tie with Wayzata. They are 0-4-1 in the section with 2 of their losses in OT but still losses.
Bemidji - They beat Buffalo and Rogers in section play. Lost to Moorhead, Brainerd (2) and Roseau. For the most part in the games until the 3rd
period. The one thing that stands out is they beat Duluth Marshall 10-1 where Buffalo beat them by 4-1 within a two day span.
St Cloud - They have tied Buffalo and lost to STMA. At 3-5-2 they are not setting he world o'fire.
Rogers has a lot to do to get out of the 8 spot at 0-3-0 and 3-6-2
So
4 Bemidji
5 StMA
6 Buffalo
7 St Cloud
8 Rogers
Tonight and Friday will shed a lot of light on things with:
Moorhead and Rogers, Buffalo and Brainerd, St Cloud and Bemidji and Brainerd at Roseau.
Last edited by elliott70 on Fri Jan 04, 2019 9:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
Thanks for the fine analysis, Elliott. Not that you need my validation, but I think you’re spot on with the current seeding. To add some information to your post, here are the remaining sectional schedules for each team.
Roseau, Brainerd, and STMA have the most 8AA games left to play, and (coincidently or not) seem to have the most difficult roads going forward. So those are the teams who probably have the highest potential for variance from their current seed line.
I'd say Moorhead has the best opportunity to take the 1 seed if they can beat Roseau in their final match-up. The two Roseau -Brainerd match-ups obviously have a big say as well as their games with Moorhead. If Bemidji can beat STMA they lock up the 4th seed, otherwise the 4-6 spots get murky for Buffalo STMA, and Bemidji. Rogers has the opportunity to play spoiler to some middle of the pack teams.
Goose21 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:01 pm
I'd say Moorhead has the best opportunity to take the 1 seed if they can beat Roseau in their final match-up. The two Roseau -Brainerd match-ups obviously have a big say as well as their games with Moorhead. If Bemidji can beat STMA they lock up the 4th seed, otherwise the 4-6 spots get murky for Buffalo STMA, and Bemidji. Rogers has the opportunity to play spoiler to some middle of the pack teams.
It is coaches voting so a lot can be different, but IF Moorhead beats Roseau (and nothing unexpected happens) it will be Moorhead.
1 & 2 Roseau and Moorhead
3 Brainerd
4 & 5 Bemidji and St Michael
6 Buffalo
7 St Cloud
8 Rogers
At 1-12 not much change (section record)
1 & 2 Roseau (5-0-0) and Moorhead (4-1-0)
3 Brainerd (5-2-0)
4 & 5 Bemidji (3-4-0) and St Michael (2-1-0)
6 Buffalo (1-5-1)
7 St Cloud (0-3-1)
8 Rogers (0-4-0)
Up coming games in January
Moorhead: 1-17 StM-A and 1-22 Roseau and 1-29 Bemidji
Roseau: 1-22 Moorhead and 1-25 StM-A and 1-26 St Cloud and 1-31 Bemidji
Brainerd: 1-24 St Cloud and 1-29 StM-A
Bemidji: 1-12 StM-A and 1-29 Moorhead and 1-31 Roseau
StM-A: 1-12 Bemidji and 1-17 Moorhead and 1-25 Roseau and 1-29 Brainerd
Buffalo: 1-17 Rogers
St Cloud: 1-24 Brainerd and 1-26 Roseau
Rogers: 1-17 Buffalo
So going into the final month realistically it could look like this
Moorhead 7-1-0 or 6-2-0
Roseau 8-1-0 or 9-0-0
Brainerd 7-2-0 or 6-3-0
Bemidji 4-6-0 or 3-7-0
StM-A 2-5-0 or 3-4-0
Buffalo 2-5-1
St Cloud 0-5-1
Rogers 0-5-0
So the Roseau at Moorhead game and the Bemidji at StM-A games are the ones that look to be seeding deciders.
For any one to move they need an upset of someone and the one with the most likely chance of a major move is StM-A as they play every team above them (or could be above them).
I certainly don't believe last night was enough of a statement by Moorhead to assure them the 1 seed if both them and Roseau run the table on the section the rest of the season. Obviously that isn't a given for either team as for sure Brainerd is going to be tough.
We've got 7 yes we do, we've got 7, how about you!
Moorhead L 5-1 F
vs. Bemidji W 9-2 F
vs. Fergus FallsW 9-3 F
vs. Benilde-St. Margaret's L 3-1 F
vs. Eden Prairie L 6-2 F
vs. Alexandria L 4-1 F
at Grand Rapids W 3-1 F
vs. Centennial W 6-3 F vs. Bemidji W 5-1 F
vs. Hermantown L 6-2 F vs. Buffalo W 4-2 F
vs. Buffalo W 1-0 F
at Roseau L 3-0 F
vs. St. Cloud W 6-0 F at Sartell-St. Stephen W 3-0 F
vs. Duluth East W 3-2 F
vs. Sartell-St. Stephen W 6-2 F at St. Cloud
at St. Michael-Albertville at Sauk Rapids-Rice vs. Roseau at Alexandria
vs. River Lakes
at Blaine at Moorhead
Did not mean to exclude Brainerd from a chance at a #1 seed but based on what has transpired they have a lock on #3.
If they win the rest of their section games they could get the votes to have a number 1 spot. IF
I think you are spot on. If Brainerd were to win out in the Section, they certainly would have a shot at #1. If Roseau and Moorhead were to win out, they Brainerd would definitely be the 3. It will be a fun final few weeks.
We've got 7 yes we do, we've got 7, how about you!
Coaches voting ???
1 Moorhead 6-1-0 (section record) lost to Roseau
2 Roseau 6-2-0 lost to Moorhead and StM-A
3 Brainerd 6-2-0 lost to Moorhead and Roseau
4 St.M-A 3-2-1 lost to Buffalo, Moorhead and tied Bemidji
5 Bemidji 3-4-1 lost to Brainerd (2), Moorhead and Roseau, tied St.M-A beat Buffalo, Rogers St Cloud
6 Buffalo 2-5-1 lost to Moorhead, Roseau, Bemidji, Brainerd (2); tied St. Cloud beat Rogers and to their credit beat StMA in OT
7 St. Cloud 0-5-1 based on their tie with Buffalo
8 Rogers 0-5-0
Not seeing how STMA is above Buffalo right now. Buffalo has the head to head and our currently leading the conference. STMA has a bad loss to North Branch. Buffal is a 4 seed above Bemidji even with the OT loss in my eyes. Could finish with 15-17 wins and I dont see Bemidji getting above 8-9 wins. If STMA beats Buffalo in Game 2 then I see it being a toss up for 4/5 between those two and Bemidji as the 6th seed.
armhockey wrote: ↑Fri Feb 01, 2019 2:41 pm
Not seeing how STMA is above Buffalo right now. Buffalo has the head to head and our currently leading the conference. STMA has a bad loss to North Branch. Buffal is a 4 seed above Bemidji even with the OT loss in my eyes. Could finish with 15-17 wins and I dont see Bemidji getting above 8-9 wins. If STMA beats Buffalo in Game 2 then I see it being a toss up for 4/5 between those two and Bemidji as the 6th seed.
I am just guessing on how coaches may vote. From the past they put more emphasis on section then total record. Of course every coach does his own thing. And I don't have much insight in Buffalo, Rogers or St Mike's coaches.
And when I look at the rest of Buffalo's record I see things that don't weigh heavily in their favor.
St Mikes have 4 of 6 losses to top quality teams and a win over Roseau. The loss to North Branch is not the worst thing, they did out shoot them dramatically and lost in ot. Buffalo won over NB 2-0 and led 1-0 after 2. Not a discerning difference.
Fortunately we have the game coming up in a couple of weeks to hopefully decide between Buf & Mikes.
Buffalo's losses include OT loss in Roseau 4-3, OT loss in Bemidji the next day 2-1, at Moorhead, twice to Brainerd 1-0 and 4-2 both games out shooting the Warriors. Their only other loss was to Rosemount who at the time was a top 8 team in the state. You could say 5 0f the 6 Buffalo losses are too quality opponents as well. Buffalo has a quality win over Chaska and a tie with Wayzata. Plus the win over STMA on the road. 2nd round match up is huge. Buffalo wins again, case closed they are seeded over STMA. Then it will be interesting how the coaches vote Bemidji with not much else on their resume besides the win over Buffalo
Like I said the only real movement I could see is Bemidji sliding into 5 pending results tomorrow. Hard to move STMA to 4 with 2 loses to Buffalo. Also, can’t move Buffalo over Brainerd as Brainerd has two wins over Buffalo. Roseau’s two wins over Brainerd locks them at 2. And even if Moorhead loses to Brainerd they likely still get the 1 based on a loss to Brainerd being judged better than Roseau’s loss to STMA.
This should one of the best section tournaments in 8AA in recent memory. I think everyone maybe other than Rogers has a realistic chance of winning a quarterfinal game. And if the semi finals went according to how I have the teams seeded (Roseau/Brainerd and Buffalo/Moorhead) it would be two great games as well. With the roll that Buffalo seems to be on I don’t know that there is a lot of advantage between the 1 and 2 for the semi final games.
It will still be fun to see how teams in section games match up this week but I don’t really see a lot of room for movement at this point.
armhockey wrote: ↑Sun Feb 10, 2019 1:54 pm
Buffalo 8 STMA 1. Should wrap up the 4 seed for the Bison.
The Bison have been playing really well of late. It’s also worth pointing out that Jake Braccini had SIX GOALS last night, and it wasn’t against a chopped liver team.
In a strange way, I think Buffalo would have actually been better positioned as the six seed. Yes, the quarterfinal game would have been tougher, but they would also avoid Moorhead longer if they advanced.
armhockey wrote: ↑Sun Feb 10, 2019 1:54 pm
Buffalo 8 STMA 1. Should wrap up the 4 seed for the Bison.
The Bison have been playing really well of late. It’s also worth pointing out that Jake Braccini had SIX GOALS last night, and it wasn’t against a chopped liver team.
In a strange way, I think Buffalo would have actually been better positioned as the six seed. Yes, the quarterfinal game would have been tougher, but they would also avoid Moorhead longer if they advanced.
Not sure that I agree. You have to win 3 games to go to state. At 6 you have to beat all three top seeds in a row(assuming all goes according to seeding). The first two on the road and the last at neutral ice. At 4 you at least get one game at home and it’s against a team you have beaten twice (the last of which was a blow out). They are 0-4 against the top 3 and none of those games would be at home. I would take the 4 and hope you can get past Moorhead to a section final at a neutral site in which you would have a good chance.
As a side note I would go back to my early season assessment that there are a few teams in this section that have a couple high end players that could make or break a team come sections. Buffalo is a great example. Braccini and Mueller show up and they can beat anyone(even make teams look silly) If either of those two have off games the result could get bad the other way too (against a team like Moorhead in the semis for example).
armhockey wrote: ↑Sun Feb 10, 2019 1:54 pm
Buffalo 8 STMA 1. Should wrap up the 4 seed for the Bison.
The Bison have been playing really well of late. It’s also worth pointing out that Jake Braccini had SIX GOALS last night, and it wasn’t against a chopped liver team.
In a strange way, I think Buffalo would have actually been better positioned as the six seed. Yes, the quarterfinal game would have been tougher, but they would also avoid Moorhead longer if they advanced.
Not sure that I agree. You have to win 3 games to go to state. At 6 you have to beat all three top seeds in a row(assuming all goes according to seeding). The first two on the road and the last at neutral ice. At 4 you at least get one game at home and it’s against a team you have beaten twice (the last of which was a blow out). They are 0-4 against the top 3 and none of those games would be at home. I would take the 4 and hope you can get past Moorhead to a section final at a neutral site in which you would have a good chance.
As a side note I would go back to my early season assessment that there are a few teams in this section that have a couple high end players that could make or break a team come sections. Buffalo is a great example. Braccini and Mueller show up and they can beat anyone(even make teams look silly) If either of those two have off games the result could get bad the other way too (against a team like Moorhead in the semis for example).
All very true, and I forgot that 8AA semis are on home ice, unlike most sections. While you obviously would have to go through Moorhead at some point if things go according to seeding, I was mostly just thinking of Buffalo’s chances of even making it to the section final, which they have only done once in program history (2002, when they were in 6AA). They are usually lucky to even make it to the semis.
Stang5280 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 10, 2019 2:20 pm
The Bison have been playing really well of late. It’s also worth pointing out that Jake Braccini had SIX GOALS last night, and it wasn’t against a chopped liver team.
In a strange way, I think Buffalo would have actually been better positioned as the six seed. Yes, the quarterfinal game would have been tougher, but they would also avoid Moorhead longer if they advanced.
Not sure that I agree. You have to win 3 games to go to state. At 6 you have to beat all three top seeds in a row(assuming all goes according to seeding). The first two on the road and the last at neutral ice. At 4 you at least get one game at home and it’s against a team you have beaten twice (the last of which was a blow out). They are 0-4 against the top 3 and none of those games would be at home. I would take the 4 and hope you can get past Moorhead to a section final at a neutral site in which you would have a good chance.
As a side note I would go back to my early season assessment that there are a few teams in this section that have a couple high end players that could make or break a team come sections. Buffalo is a great example. Braccini and Mueller show up and they can beat anyone(even make teams look silly) If either of those two have off games the result could get bad the other way too (against a team like Moorhead in the semis for example).
All very true, and I forgot that 8AA semis are on home ice, unlike most sections. While you obviously would have to go through Moorhead at some point if things go according to seeding, I was mostly just thinking of Buffalo’s chances of even making it to the section final, which they have only done once in program history (2002, when they were in 6AA). They are usually lucky to even make it to the semis.
This is certainly the best chance they have had in a long time. And this could be the peak year of this group(depends somewhat on what Braccini does next year but Mueller and Klein will be big losses not likely to be replaced). In any event if they get the 4 I would love to see them make an appearance in the final!
I wouldn't bet a lot of dough on Brainerd making very much noise in the sectional playoffs 
But there is a silver lining, just wait until this group of Mites get to high school 
