8AA section seeding prediction

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elliott70
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8AA section seeding prediction

Post by elliott70 » Fri Feb 09, 2018 11:50 am

Per QRF
No. 5 Moorhead (123.4) 8-1-0 17-6-0 3.9 1.7 Won 7
No. 10 Brainerd (111.6) 7-1-0 18-5-0 4.4 1.8 Won 7
No. 13 St. Michael-Albertville (107.8) 4-2-0 16-5-0 4.3 2.2 Won 5
No. 21 St. Cloud (95.9) 4-3-0 17-6-0 5.0 2.5 Won 2
No. 34 Roseau (81.5) 4-5-0 12-11-0 3.5 3.1 Won 1
No. 38 Buffalo (76.1) 1-6-0 12-10-0 3.0 2.4 Won 3
No. 42 Bemidji (69.7) 2-7-0 10-12-0 2.5 2.2 Won 1
No. 57 Rogers (53.0) 1-6-0 7-15-0 2.2 3.3 Won 1

Per page stat
6 MOORHEAD 8AA 17 6 0 0.739 89 39 20.79
9 BRAINERD 8AA 16 5 0 0.762 92 40 20.45
22 ST MICHAEL ALBERTVILLE 8AA 14 5 0 0.737 79 48 19.39
26 ST CLOUD_ 8AA 16 6 0 0.727 108 56 18.83
31 ROSEAU 8AA 11 11 0 0.500 78 70 18.54
36 BEMIDJI 8AA 9 11 0 0.450 49 42 18.14
53 BUFFALO 8AA 11 10 0 0.524 61 53 17.01
93 ROGERS 8AA 7 15 0 0.318 48 73 14.82

SOS
9 Moorhead
21 Roseau
27 Brainerd
29 Bemidji
34 St. Mikes
51 Buffalo
55 St Cloud
79 Rogers

The only possible change I can see from page stat is 1 Brainerd and 2 Moorhead based on their second game. But my guess is coaches will give Moorhead the nod.
QRF has Buffalo ahead of Bemidji but that should make no sense to anyone.

1. Moorhead
2. Brainerd
3. St Michael
4. Roseau
5. St Cloud
6. Bemidji
7. Buffalo
8. Rogers

QF (high seed)
Moorhead over Rogers
Roseau over St. Cloud

Brainerd over Buffalo
St Michaels over Bemidji

Semis (high seed)
Moorhead over Roseau
Brainerd over St Michaels

Finals (probably Bemidji)
Moorhead over Brainerd

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Re: 8AA section seeding prediction

Post by east hockey » Fri Feb 09, 2018 12:02 pm

elliott70 wrote:Per QRF
No. 5 Moorhead (123.4) 8-1-0 17-6-0 3.9 1.7 Won 7
No. 10 Brainerd (111.6) 7-1-0 18-5-0 4.4 1.8 Won 7
No. 13 St. Michael-Albertville (107.8) 4-2-0 16-5-0 4.3 2.2 Won 5
No. 21 St. Cloud (95.9) 4-3-0 17-6-0 5.0 2.5 Won 2
No. 34 Roseau (81.5) 4-5-0 12-11-0 3.5 3.1 Won 1
No. 38 Buffalo (76.1) 1-6-0 12-10-0 3.0 2.4 Won 3
No. 42 Bemidji (69.7) 2-7-0 10-12-0 2.5 2.2 Won 1
No. 57 Rogers (53.0) 1-6-0 7-15-0 2.2 3.3 Won 1

Per page stat
6 MOORHEAD 8AA 17 6 0 0.739 89 39 20.79
9 BRAINERD 8AA 16 5 0 0.762 92 40 20.45
22 ST MICHAEL ALBERTVILLE 8AA 14 5 0 0.737 79 48 19.39
26 ST CLOUD_ 8AA 16 6 0 0.727 108 56 18.83
31 ROSEAU 8AA 11 11 0 0.500 78 70 18.54
36 BEMIDJI 8AA 9 11 0 0.450 49 42 18.14
53 BUFFALO 8AA 11 10 0 0.524 61 53 17.01
93 ROGERS 8AA 7 15 0 0.318 48 73 14.82

SOS
9 Moorhead
21 Roseau
27 Brainerd
29 Bemidji
34 St. Mikes
51 Buffalo
55 St Cloud
79 Rogers

The only possible change I can see from page stat is 1 Brainerd and 2 Moorhead based on their second game. But my guess is coaches will give Moorhead the nod.
QRF has Buffalo ahead of Bemidji but that should make no sense to anyone.

1. Moorhead
2. Brainerd
3. St Michael
4. Roseau
5. St Cloud
6. Bemidji
7. Buffalo
8. Rogers

QF (high seed)
Moorhead over Rogers
Roseau over St. Cloud

Brainerd over Buffalo
St Michaels over Bemidji

Semis (high seed)
Moorhead over Roseau
Brainerd over St Michaels

Finals (probably Bemidji)
Moorhead over Brainerd
The Buffalo-Bemidji thing is interesting. Knowing that QRF penalizes a team for playing a Class A team, but not knowing what that penalty is, Bemidji has played one more game than Buffalo vs. Class A opponents. The other thing is that W/L record is more heavily weighed in QRF and PageStat. PageStat only considers wins and losses in the context of the goal differential, so there is that. Do I think Buffalo is better than Bemidji? No way.

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armhockey
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Buffalo vs Bemidji

Post by armhockey » Fri Feb 09, 2018 12:14 pm

Buffalo played without their top two D, their number 1 center and a second line left wing. It was a close game with each team controlling stretches of play. Two pretty even teams from what I saw.

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Post by 7TIMECHAMPS » Fri Feb 09, 2018 1:29 pm

When is the vote? There are still a few meaningful section games remaining. Any way that it shakes out I would love to see Moorhead go down in sections.

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Post by elliott70 » Fri Feb 09, 2018 1:43 pm

14th I think.
Wednesday, faxed in.

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8AA

Post by blueblood » Fri Feb 09, 2018 2:10 pm

St. Cloud will win their QF game.
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Post by 7TIMECHAMPS » Fri Feb 09, 2018 3:18 pm

It looks like the Brainerd-St Cloud and STMA-Rogers games are both after the vote if that is the case. If the vote is on the 14th one would hope that these two games wouldn't change the way the coaches would have voted.

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Re: Buffalo vs Bemidji

Post by Stang5280 » Fri Feb 09, 2018 3:33 pm

armhockey wrote:Buffalo played without their top two D, their number 1 center and a second line left wing. It was a close game with each team controlling stretches of play. Two pretty even teams from what I saw.
IIRC, one of the Buffalo players was participating in an all-star football game and another was in a similar baseball event. Which is pretty cool for the coach to allow given all of the complaints about the lack of multi sport athletes in hockey now.

That said, I can’t imagine that the mitigating factors would come into play enough to bump Buffalo over Bemidji in the section seedings.

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Post by Stang5280 » Fri Feb 09, 2018 4:50 pm

Records for in-section games below, along with remaining 8AA opponents.

Brainerd 7-1-0 (STMA, St. Cloud)
Moorhead 8-1-0 (Bemidji)
STMA 4-2-0 (Buffalo, @Brainerd, Rogers)
St. Cloud 4-3-0 (@Brainerd)
Roseau 4-5-0 (None)
Bemidji 2-7-0 (@Moorhead)
Buffalo 1-6-0 (@STMA)
Rogers 1-6-0 (@STMA)

Brainerd has two fairly difficult games remaining and could easily fall out of consideration for the top seed. STMA also has potential to drop, but did defeat St. Cloud earlier in the season, so probably has some cushion barring a freefall.

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Post by 7TIMECHAMPS » Fri Feb 09, 2018 5:07 pm

I have never liked comparing section records when the teams don't play the same amount of games against the same teams. For example STMA only plays Brainerd, Bemidji, and Moorhead once and they play Rogers and Buffalo twice. St Cloud also only plays Moorhead once. On the other hand Roseau plays Moorhead, Brainerd, and Bemidji twice and Rogers once(Buffalo none). What I am saying is that it isn't anywhere near an apples to apples comparison........ If STMA loses to Rogers or Buffalo they should be the five seed. They shouldn't have that much cushion there.

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Post by Stang5280 » Sat Feb 10, 2018 6:03 pm

7TIMECHAMPS wrote:I have never liked comparing section records when the teams don't play the same amount of games against the same teams. For example STMA only plays Brainerd, Bemidji, and Moorhead once and they play Rogers and Buffalo twice. St Cloud also only plays Moorhead once. On the other hand Roseau plays Moorhead, Brainerd, and Bemidji twice and Rogers once(Buffalo none). What I am saying is that it isn't anywhere near an apples to apples comparison........ If STMA loses to Rogers or Buffalo they should be the five seed. They shouldn't have that much cushion there.
I agree that the section records are an imperfect comparison and should not be the only deciding factor in seeding. I was mostly just throwing it out there as another comparison point. I also agree that STMA should be punished for losing to Buffalo or Rogers, should that come to fruition. The Mississippi 8 is a limiting factor in the Knights’ schedule, but they do have some quality wins outside of the section, such as Hermantown, Maple Grove, and Prior Lake. So I’m not sure they should drop too far given the triangle of wins between them, St. Cloud, and Roseau. But this is all just idle speculation and I think most of us would be pretty surprised to see anyone other than Brainerd or the Spuds win the section.

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Post by Green and White Fan » Mon Feb 12, 2018 9:12 am

This will be an interesting seeding 3-5. 1 and 2 are pretty much a lock, but Brainerd could make a good case for 1. It is a shame that St. Cloud and Brainerd play on Thursday. Of the teams 3-5, St. Cloud plays a much weaker schedule and Roseau plays the toughest. Comparing section scores, the 3 teams are very close. Roseau defeated STMA and lost to St. Cloud. Hopefully Roseau has learned a lesson on scheduling and won't play a section game on Friday night and another section game early afternoon on Saturday. This will come down to who coaches like. Buffalo will have Roseau at 5 or worse and after that who knows. I feel it should go:

1. Brainerd
2. Moorhead
3. STMA (If Brainerd were to spank them Tuesday night this would change)
4. Roseau
5. St. Cloud

It will probably go:

1. Moorhead
2. Brainerd
3. STMA
4. St. Cloud
5. Roseau
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Post by March Madness » Mon Feb 12, 2018 11:31 am

It wouldn't surprise me one bit to see any one of the 3-5 seeds win this section.

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Post by TheNightman » Mon Feb 12, 2018 5:06 pm

March Madness wrote:It wouldn't surprise me one bit to see any one of the 3-5 seeds win this section.
Wouldn't surprise me to see Brainerd lose in the second round but I don't think anyone is beating Moorhead in this section.

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Post by Green and White Fan » Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:17 pm

I will disagree and say Moorhead does not get out of the section this year. Just a feeling!
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Post by Goose21 » Tue Feb 13, 2018 3:17 pm

I think Moorhead and Brainerd are a notch above the rest and meet in the finals.
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Post by BigTen » Tue Feb 13, 2018 3:49 pm

If STMA were to upset Brainerd tonight, could they possibly steal the 2 seed?

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Post by Green and White Fan » Tue Feb 13, 2018 4:38 pm

Based on section play it would probably solidify them at a 3. Based on section scores their only win that is meaningful is against St. Cloud. They lost to Roseau and got beat by Moorhead worse than Roseau or St. CLoud did and their other scores are similar. Not sure why they are a lock at 3 as their out of section schedule is weaker than other section teams.
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Post by 7TIMECHAMPS » Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:06 pm

Shouldn't these be out by now? Or did they decide to delay the meeting again?

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Post by Green and White Fan » Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:14 pm

I was thinking they should be. 8A is out. Any time I would think. It will be interesting to see how they come out after the big STMA win last night.
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Post by CornerBar » Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:34 pm

7TIMECHAMPS wrote:Shouldn't these be out by now? Or did they decide to delay the meeting again?
I heard that they are delaying them until Friday because of the St. Cloud vs Brainerd game tomorrow night.

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Post by elliott70 » Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:38 pm

CornerBar wrote:
7TIMECHAMPS wrote:Shouldn't these be out by now? Or did they decide to delay the meeting again?
I heard that they are delaying them until Friday because of the St. Cloud vs Brainerd game tomorrow night.
That would make sense.

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Post by CornerBar » Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:46 pm

elliott70 wrote:
CornerBar wrote:
7TIMECHAMPS wrote:Shouldn't these be out by now? Or did they decide to delay the meeting again?
I heard that they are delaying them until Friday because of the St. Cloud vs Brainerd game tomorrow night.
That would make sense.
Well it looks like I was wrong...

1. Moorhead
2. STMA
3. Brainerd
4. St Cloud
5. Roseau
6. Bemidji
7. Buffalo
8. Rodgers

With them dropping Brainerd after the STMA loss last night it is unfortunate for St. Cloud that they didn't wait until Friday. They could have possibly jumped into the 3 seed. Regardless I think any team 1-5 has a real shot at winning the section.

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Post by Green and White Fan » Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:47 pm

1. Moorhead
2. STMA
3. Brainerd
4. St. Cloud
5. Roseau
6. Bemidji
7. Buffalo
8. Rogers

Can't say I agree with these, but I don't get a say. I hope to see the voting to see where everybody voted. Roseau beats the #2 seed and St. Cloud beats the 5 seed with everything else pretty much equal. Hmmmm!
Last edited by Green and White Fan on Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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8AA SEEDING

Post by jdh » Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:47 pm

1 Moorhead
2 STMA
3 Brainerd
4 St. Cloud
5 Roseau
6 Bemidji
7 Buffalo
8 Rogers

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