AA Rankings for 1/8/17

[karl(east)]

As teams hit the halfway mark, things are really starting to get messy; there are about ten teams I wanted to rank #7 or so this week. But, we have to find ways to rank them all, so here we go.

1. Stillwater (12-0)
-Pasted Forest Lake in their only action. They do have a couple of interesting ones this coming week, as rival White Bear, whom they upset in the playoffs twice in the past three years, now comes in as a dangerous underdog. A win would be an important step toward the top seed in 4AA, which is looking increasingly valuable. First, however, they have to beat Woodbury, who just beat the Bears themselves, and are quietly putting together a strong record.
This week: Thurs at Woodbury, Sat at #14 White Bear Lake

2. Elk River (11-2)
-The Elks ground out a win over Blaine, and with the four teams immediately below them all stumbling this past week, they now have some separation here thanks to their consistency. They’ve been very steady, and their only two losses are to the teams that are now immediately above and below them. A Centennial rematch awaits them on Saturday.
This week: Tues at Andover, Sat vs. #11 Centennial

3. Edina (10-3-1)
-After surging forward over the holidays, the Hornets wobbled some this past week, as they nearly coughed up a lead over Burnsville and then settled for a tie against White Bear Lake. Still, everyone else around them lost while they didn’t, so they end up climbing a spot. For what it’s worth, Blaine just beat White Bear, so their only game this week could be a good one.
This week: Sat at #13 Blaine

4. Hill-Murray (8-1-3)
-This is a nearly impossible spot to fill here, and it’s hard to ignore that “1” in the loss column. The Pioneers just keep finding ways to not lose, as they pulled one out against St. Thomas and then shut out a Mahtomedi team that had given them a one-goal game in December. I’m not convinced they have the talent to stay this high, but a Hill team playing tight defense brings back a lot of memories of great playoff runs past. They get a chance to atone for that Tartan tie this week.
This week: Thurs vs. Hastings, Sat vs. Tartan

5. Grand Rapids (10-2-1)
-The Thunderhawks let one slip away against Holy Family. Their stars will keep them in any game, but they can’t let games tilt as far out of their control as this one did. They did enough in December to build a pretty big cushion in the rankings, but there have been a few signs of worry lately. It’s moment of truth week for this squad now, as they’re on the road to face a Hermantown team that is on fire and their greatest nemesis.
This week: Tues at Hermantown, Thurs at #15 Duluth East

6. St. Thomas Academy (9-3-1)
-The Cadets’ territorial advantage didn’t translate to a win over Hill-Murray, and allowed me to make my broken record critique of the Cadets’ offensive style. They’ve got three road games this week, but only Mahtomedi poses any real sort of threat here.
This week: Tues at Bloomington Jefferson, Thurs at North St. Paul, Sat at Mahtomedi

7. Holy Family (8-3-2)
-Fought off their recent downward spin with a big win over Grand Rapids. They can certainly skate with anyone out there; they just need to find ways to put the puck in the net. At this point of the season, I’d rather have that flaw than some of the others exhibited by teams in this range in the rankings. A couple of interesting road games await them now, as they face a quality Blaine team and Delano.
This week: Tues at #13 Blaine, Thurs at Delano

8. Eden Prairie (7-4-1)
-Eden Prairie looked a lot more like Eden Prairie in a flattening of Prior Lake, so perhaps they’ll start to live up to their potential now. They’ll aim to build some momentum on a road trip north this coming weekend.
This week: Fri at Cloquet, Sat at #15 Duluth East

9. Lakeville North (8-2-2)
-Handled a couple of unranked South Suburban opponents this past week. The first Battle of Lakeville for 1AA supremacy now looms.
This week: Thurs at Lakeville South, Sat vs. Eagan

10. Maple Grove (8-3)
-A statement win over Centennial continues the Crimson’s recent strong streak and gets them their top ten debut. They should be able to clean up this week before heading into a very tough stretch.
This week: Thurs vs. Andover, Sat at Anoka

11. Centennial (8-3)
-Just after I anoint the Cougars last week, they go and lose to Maple Grove, which muddies the water in 5AA. It’s not too surprising, really: they’re a tough, steady team, but lack the game-breaking talent of many of the others in the top ten. This week they start their second circuit through the big Northwest Suburban schools, and have their rematch with an Elk River team that beat them in December.
This week: Thurs at Anoka, Sat at #2 Elk River

12. Minnetonka (8-5)
-Flattened Duluth East in their only game this past week, and showed strong depth and speed in doing so. The Skippers went on an impressive run in the second half of last season; is this the start of something this year? Or is this just more of them blasting the teams just below them (as with the Blaine game) without doing much against those above, against whom they’re 1-5? The jury is still out. This week is warm-up time against a couple of decent teams before heading into Lake play.
This week: Fri vs. Moorhead, Sat vs. Benilde-St. Margaret’s

13. Blaine (8-3-1)
-Nearly pulled out a late comeback against Elk River, which at least shows they can compete with the elites. Their tough stretch continues as they take on a pair of top-flight southwest metro teams in nonconference play.
This week: Tues vs. #7 Holy Family, Sat vs. #3 Edina

14. White Bear Lake (7-3-2)
-A tie with Edina gives the Bears another quality result, but they then pulled a White Bear and went and lost to Woodbury, which hurts their chances at the 2-seed in 4AA. Despite some good showings, they only have one win in their past six; their style can keep them in games against more skilled teams, but also leaves them vulnerable to upsets. Can they keep up that pattern in one of their most important regular season games of the year?
This week: Thurs vs. Park, Sat vs. #1 Stillwater

15. Duluth East (6-4-1)
-Crashed and burned against Minnetonka, raising some questions about their direction after otherwise hanging in there against most of the good teams they’ve played. The week ahead will be huge, though: after playing crosstown rival Denfeld, they host Grand Rapids in a critical 7AA battle and then take on Eden Prairie. We’re still waiting for a signature East win, so we’ll see if they can break through or if they’ll settle further into the second tier.
This week: Mon at Duluth Denfeld, Thurs vs. #5 Grand Rapids, Sat vs. #8 Eden Prairie

The Next Ten

Lakeville South (8-3-1)
-Took down a pair of quality goalies to collect a pair of wins, but it will have been a month since the Cougars last played a team even mentioned in the rankings by the time they take on Lakeville North on Thursday. Because of that, they’re something of a mystery; how will they do in their first game against front-line competition in a while? Those losses to Eastview and Prior Lake are looking less and less impressive as the season goes along, which is why they haven’t leapfrogged the likes of East and White Bear despite their occasional bumps in the road.

St. Michael-Albertville (9-1-1)
-The Knights’ narrow win over Rogers leaves me leery about moving them higher despite the strong record; their schedule to date just can’t inspire enough confidence to say they definitively belong in the crowded field right ahead of them. They can prove a lot within their section when they go to visit Roseau this week, though.

Roseau (10-3)
-An emphatic win over Brainerd continues to build the Rams’ case, as they’ve now won 10 in a row since dropping their first three. The St. Cloud win was tight, though, reminding us how thin the separation is 1-8 in this section. The week ahead is huge, as they renew the state’s most storied rivalry and then take on St. Michael-Albertville in a game that could well decide the top seed in 8AA.

Moorhead (9-3-1)
-Took apart Thief River Falls, and cruised to their second easy win over Benilde in as many weeks. I think this team has the talent to go a lot higher, but Holy Family remains their only win of significance, and there are a few questionable results on the books. A road trip to the Cities to play Minnetonka and Breck is a chance to prove something. By next week, we should have a much better sense of where this 8AA jumble belongs relative to the state.

Burnsville (6-6-1)
-Gave Edina a decent scare and took care of business in their other two South Suburban games, so the Blaze are starting to build something here. They’re into the most favorable stretch of their schedule now, and need to pile up the wins here.

Wayzata (4-8)
-It wasn’t exactly a statement win, but they did fend off Cretin to likely lock down the 2-seed in a struggling 6AA. They’ve got Delano on Saturday, which could be entertaining.

Cretin-Derham Hall (7-5)
-Lost to Wayzata, but that’s the closest thing they have to a bad loss, and they do have that win over White Bear to their name.

Prior Lake (6-6)
-Got shellacked by Eden Prairie, and are looking like the clear 4-seed in 2AA.

Woodbury (10-4)
-Have taken some sketchy losses, but deserving of some mention with their strong record and win over White Bear. They’ve got Stillwater this week.

Bemidji (7-6)
-Undressed a decent Sartell team, which is a step back toward relevance in 8AA. If the progress is real, they should be able to collect a few more wins this week.

[grindiangrad-80]

Rankings look good as usual. I'm pretty impressed with Hill and Roseau too. Those teams know how to find a way to get it done.

[alcloseshaver]

Karl, I know there are compliments every week on the poll but this is sincerely a great read on Sunday mornings and your work can't be taken for granted. Thanks

[WestMetro]

Karl--A very nice piece of work!

[kniven]

Rankings look good as usual. I'm pretty impressed with Hill and Roseau too. Those teams know how to find a way to get it done.

A great read with my afternoon Mocha! Always a pleasure to read ......

[boblee]

Much respect, Karl. As always. What I appreciate the most is that you avoid the "this team beat that team" arguments for the most part. I love FTP, but I've had enough of this team beat that team who beat some team who beat the other team, therefore they need to be ranked ahead of yet another team. You judge teams based on who they are, which is tougher to do than one would think. Keep up the great work.

[TheHockeyDJ]

Much respect, Karl. As always. What I appreciate the most is that you avoid the "this team beat that team" arguments for the most part. I love FTP, but I've had enough of this team beat that team who beat some team who beat the other team, therefore they need to be ranked ahead of yet another team. You judge teams based on who they are, which is tougher to do than one would think. Keep up the great work.

His level of madness on that line of thinking was at it's peak about 4-5 years ago when he was trying to put St. Francis ahead of GR in the 7AA seeds on his site.

[alcloseshaver]

Much respect, Karl. As always. What I appreciate the most is that you avoid the "this team beat that team" arguments for the most part. I love FTP, but I've had enough of this team beat that team who beat some team who beat the other team, therefore they need to be ranked ahead of yet another team. You judge teams based on who they are, which is tougher to do than one would think. Keep up the great work.

His level of madness on that line of thinking was at it's peak about 4-5 years ago when he was trying to put St. Francis ahead of GR in the 7AA seeds on his site.

Never sleep on St. Franny.

[Mite-dad]

So where would Hermantown fall on this ranking?

[GoldenBear]

Right behind Wayzata. GB

[BigTen]

So where would Hermantown fall on this ranking?

http://minnhock.com/ps2017.htm

[karl(east)]

So where would Hermantown fall on this ranking?

#3 or #4, probably. Great record and they're starting to run up some lopsided results after a slow start, but their only win over top 15 AA team is Minnetonka. Everyone else in that neighborhood of the rankings has several such wins. We'll have a better feel for where they belong after the Rapids game tomorrow.

By my method, Delano wouldn't crack a 2-class top 15 right now. The best AA team they've played is Cloquet, who's not even mentioned in the rankings, and they tied them. They'd probably come in right ahead of STMA, who has similar credentials...great record against a schedule that has made it easy to run up a lot goals, and a win over Breck, who maybe lands around #2.

[MNHockeyFan]

So where would Hermantown fall on this ranking?

#3 or #4, probably. Great record and they're starting to run up some lopsided results after a slow start, but their only win over top 15 AA team is Minnetonka. Everyone else in that neighborhood of the rankings has several such wins. We'll have a better feel for where they belong after the Rapids game tomorrow.

Karl, any further thoughts after last night's game vs. Rapids?

[hockey59]

So where would Hermantown fall on this ranking?

#3 or #4, probably. Great record and they're starting to run up some lopsided results after a slow start, but their only win over top 15 AA team is Minnetonka. Everyone else in that neighborhood of the rankings has several such wins. We'll have a better feel for where they belong after the Rapids game tomorrow.

Karl, any further thoughts after last night's game vs. Rapids?

While it was kind of Karl to dignify the original question with an answer, it's not a relevant question...because Hermantown chooses to play HS Single A hockey. Hermantown plays PeeWee AA & Bantam AA, accordingly isn't that the definition of sandbagging, playing HS Single A?

[Jeffy95]

#3 or #4, probably. Great record and they're starting to run up some lopsided results after a slow start, but their only win over top 15 AA team is Minnetonka. Everyone else in that neighborhood of the rankings has several such wins. We'll have a better feel for where they belong after the Rapids game tomorrow.

Karl, any further thoughts after last night's game vs. Rapids?

While it was kind of Karl to dignify the original question with an answer, it's not a relevant question...because Hermantown chooses to play HS Single A hockey. Hermantown plays PeeWee AA & Bantam AA, accordingly isn't that the definition of sandbagging, playing HS Single A?

Yes, that's been well established over the years. Please keep the dignity of this thread by discussing AA teams only.

[Mite-dad]

Sorry I asked.

[kniven]

Karl, any further thoughts after last night's game vs. Rapids?

While it was kind of Karl to dignify the original question with an answer, it's not a relevant question...because Hermantown chooses to play HS Single A hockey. Hermantown plays PeeWee AA & Bantam AA, accordingly isn't that the definition of sandbagging, playing HS Single A?

Yes, that's been well established over the years. Please keep the dignity of this thread by discussing AA teams only.

Exactly

[MNHockeyFan]

Sorry I asked.

Certainly no need to apologize, given the fact that the person who has always done these rankings chose to give you a straight answer. It's certainly not the first time a thread on this board has veered far more "off topic" than your simple, straightforward question!

[kniven]

So where would Hermantown fall on this ranking?

#3 or #4, probably. Great record and they're starting to run up some lopsided results after a slow start, but their only win over top 15 AA team is Minnetonka. Everyone else in that neighborhood of the rankings has several such wins. We'll have a better feel for where they belong after the Rapids game tomorrow.

By my method, Delano wouldn't crack a 2-class top 15 right now. The best AA team they've played is Cloquet, who's not even mentioned in the rankings, and they tied them. They'd probably come in right ahead of STMA, who has similar credentials...great record against a schedule that has made it easy to run up a lot goals, and a win over Breck, who maybe lands around #2.

. You know....I hope Grand Rapids beats the snot out of Duluth East on Thursday. Either way, I'm sure Karl will find a reason to move them up to top 3 ranking in the state ))

[east hockey]

So where would Hermantown fall on this ranking?

http://minnhock.com/ps2017.htm

Which surprised me but the numbers are what they are.

Lee

[karl(east)]

Blog post somewhat related to these rankings (discussing what it takes to win a state championship) that also touches on how I think that team that got mentioned above (that I won't name, lest we violate the sanctity of AA hockey) would do in AA: https://apatientcycle.com/2017/01/11/ye ... pionships/